Chuck: Renew or Cancel? A Second Look
December 5th, 2007 by Bill GormanUPDATE: NBC has announced that Chuck will Return in Fall 2008
I did our first Chuck: Renew or Cancel? more than a month ago. What a difference that time has made.
And while I am never in doubt, I do reserve the right to change my mind, and so I re-ask, Chuck: Renew or Cancel?
Chucks’s Ratings Rank among New NBC Shows, All New Shows
| Date | Viewer Rank among New NBC shows | Viewer Rank among all new shows |
|---|---|---|
| 9/24 | #3 of 4 | #8 of 20 |
| 10/1 | #3 of 4 | #10 of 23 |
| 10/8 | #3 of 4 | #11 of 24 |
| 10/15 | #2 of 4 | #8 of 24 |
| 10/22* | #3 of 5 | #13 of 24 |
| 10/29 | #1 of 3 | #10 of 22 |
| 11/5 | #1 of 5 | #6 of 22 |
| 11/12 | #1 of 5 | #8 of 22 |
| 11/19 | #1 of 3 | #3 of 22 |
| 11/26 | #1 of 3 | #3 of 20 |
My original look at Chuck ratings came before the full week data for 10/29 was available. It’s said that they don’t ring a bell at the bottom, but looking at Chuck ratings performance since the week of 10/22 you might disagree. Chuck immediately began a move from the middle of the pack, not only against a weak NBC slate of new shows but all new shows, to the top of both groups.
Admittedly, the later few weeks have seen many strong new ABC shows held out of the line up, but still quite a move up for Chuck ratings.
How is it doing against its competition on Monday?
Chuck’s Ratings and Rankings @ 8PM Monday
| Date | Viewers (Rank) | Adults 18-49 (Rank) | Adults 18-34 (Rank) | Adults 25-54 (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24 | 9.21m (2) | 4.67m (2) | 2.18m (3) | 5.13m (2) |
| 10/1 | 8.39m (2) | 4.17m (2) | 2.08m (3) | 4.57m (2) |
| 10/8 | 7.21m (4) | 3.50m (4) | 1.51m (4) | 3.91m (4) |
| 10/15 | 8.36m (3) | 4.32m (2) | 2.05m (2) | 4.52m (2) |
| 10/22* | 6.82m (3) | 3.42m (3) | 1.84m (2) | 3.37m (3) |
| 10/29 | 7.14m (3) | 3.73m (3) | 1.84m (2) | 3.72m (3) |
| 11/5 | 7.65m (4) | 4.20m (4) | 2.00m (3) | 4.30m (3) |
| 11/12 | 7.56m (3) | 3.92m (4) | 1.80m (4) | 4.22m (3) |
| 11/19 | 7.79m (3) | 4.03m (3) | 1.88m (2) | 4.23m (3) |
| 11/26 | 8.42m (2) | 4.28m (2) | 2.06m (2) | 4.54m (3) |
After bottoming the week of 10/29, Chuck’s ratings have risen 10-20% in the different demo categories. Looking at all the other new shows we’ve analyzed, that is very rare and cause for significant optimism. NBC doesn’t have many shows placing second in their timeslots for viewers and adults 18-49 and 18-34.
(*10/22 data is Live, all other data is Live+SD, useful for rankings but not viewership trends).
Conclusions
Positives
- Chuck ratings have rebounded sharply since mid-season to put it among the fall’s top new shows.
- Chuck ratings have also recovered strongly against its timeslot competition to become very competitive.
Negatives
- Can the positive trend for Chuck ratings survive the writer’s strike?
Verdict: Renew. My mind is officially changed, Chuck has become NBC’s fall turnaround.
Strike Status: As of today, there are 2 fresh Chuck episodes left for broadcast sometime in 2008. The latest (12/5) strike status of all shows is here.
Wondering about other shows? Check our all our Renew or Cancel? posts.
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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2007 Nielsen Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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