Tuesday’s American Idol Has a Time-Shifted Audience of 4.1 Million
With 4.11 million time-shifted (DVR) viewers, Tuesday’s American Idol had the largest absolute time-shifted audience in the week of February 11-17, followed by Wednesday’s American Idol with 3.95 million time-shifted viewers. Time-shifted audiences for Idol have been increasing as the season progresses.
CBS had the most shows (6) out of the top 20 in absolute time-shifted audience size.
Top 20 Largest Time-shifted Audience Broadcast TV Shows:
| Rank | Programs | Network | Persons Live+7 (000) | Persons Live (000) | Timeshifed Audience (000s) | % Increase Over Live |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AMERICAN IDOL-TUESDAY | FOX | 31,391 | 27,283 | 4,108 | 15.1% |
| 2 | AMERICAN IDOL-WEDNESDAY | FOX | 26,303 | 22,353 | 3,950 | 17.7% |
| 3 | LOST | ABC | 15,647 | 11,987 | 3,660 | 30.5% |
| 4 | SURVIVOR: MICRONESIA | CBS | 14,183 | 11,761 | 2,422 | 20.6% |
| 5 | TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 9,443 | 7,664 | 1,779 | 23.2% |
| 6 | NBC MOVIE OF THE WEEK-SUN | NBC | 13,651 | 11,968 | 1,683 | 14.1% |
| 7 | BIG BROTHER 9-WED | CBS | 6,351 | 4,839 | 1,512 | 31.2% |
| 8 | JERICHO | CBS | 8,137 | 6,637 | 1,500 | 22.6% |
| 9 | BIG BROTHER 9-TUE | CBS | 7,472 | 5,978 | 1,494 | 25.0% |
| 10 | LAS VEGAS | NBC | 9,003 | 7,548 | 1,455 | 19.3% |
| 11 | BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 8,349 | 6,918 | 1,431 | 20.7% |
| 12 | APPRENTICE 7 | NBC | 9,991 | 8,582 | 1,409 | 16.4% |
| 13 | PRISON BREAK | FOX | 8,473 | 7,070 | 1,403 | 19.8% |
| 14 | BROTHERS & SISTERS | ABC | 9,416 | 8,022 | 1,394 | 17.4% |
| 15 | ELI STONE | ABC | 8,372 | 7,051 | 1,321 | 18.7% |
| 16 | BIG BROTHER 9-SUN | CBS | 7,062 | 5,759 | 1,303 | 22.6% |
| 17 | COLD CASE | CBS | 10,435 | 9,164 | 1,271 | 13.9% |
| 18 | FAMILY GUY | FOX | 7,879 | 6,674 | 1,205 | 18.1% |
| 19 | LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 6,889 | 5,696 | 1,193 | 20.9% |
| 20 | LAW AND ORDER | NBC | 11,070 | 9,937 | 1,133 | 11.4% |
The Largest Time-shifting Audience table ranks which of the Top 150 broadcast shows [by Live+7 viewers] had the largest absolute number of time-shifted viewers on their digital video recorders (DVRs).
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Wednesday’s Big Brother Has A 31.2% Increase Via DVR Viewing
For the week of February 11-17, CBS’s Wednesday Big Brother’s audience increased by 31.2% over the 4.84 million that watched it Live giving it a Live+7 audience of 6.35 million, making it the leading broadcast show for % increase in viewing via DVR. In fact, the 3 Big Brothers all placed in the top 8 for % increase by DVR viewing.
Lost had its audience increase by 30.5% over its Live airing placing it second for the week. Smallville and October Road round out the largest % increase Top 5. ABC had the most time-shifted shows on a % basis with 6 of the 20.
Top 20 Most % Time-shifted Broadcast TV Shows:
| Rank | Programs | Network | Persons Live+7 (000) | Persons Live (000) | Timeshifed Audience (000s) | % Increase Over Live |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BIG BROTHER 9-WED | CBS | 6,351 | 4,839 | 1,512 | 31.2% |
| 2 | LOST | ABC | 15,647 | 11,987 | 3,660 | 30.5% |
| 3 | SMALLVILLE | CW | 4,184 | 3,298 | 886 | 26.9% |
| 4 | BIG BROTHER 9-TUE | CBS | 7,472 | 5,978 | 1,494 | 25.0% |
| 5 | OCTOBER ROAD | ABC | 4,707 | 3,778 | 929 | 24.6% |
| 6 | TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 9,443 | 7,664 | 1,779 | 23.2% |
| 7 | ONE TREE HILL | CW | 3,586 | 2,920 | 666 | 22.8% |
| 8 | BIG BROTHER 9-SUN | CBS | 7,062 | 5,759 | 1,303 | 22.6% |
| 9 | JERICHO | CBS | 8,137 | 6,637 | 1,500 | 22.6% |
| 10 | CASHMERE MAFIA | ABC | 6,153 | 5,030 | 1,123 | 22.3% |
| 11 | LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 6,889 | 5,696 | 1,193 | 20.9% |
| 12 | BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 8,349 | 6,918 | 1,431 | 20.7% |
| 13 | SURVIVOR: MICRONESIA | CBS | 14,183 | 11,761 | 2,422 | 20.6% |
| 14 | SUPERNATURAL | CW | 3,409 | 2,829 | 580 | 20.5% |
| 15 | PRISON BREAK | FOX | 8,473 | 7,070 | 1,403 | 19.8% |
| 16 | LAS VEGAS | NBC | 9,003 | 7,548 | 1,455 | 19.3% |
| 17 | ELI STONE | ABC | 8,372 | 7,051 | 1,321 | 18.7% |
| 18 | FAMILY GUY | FOX | 7,879 | 6,674 | 1,205 | 18.1% |
| 19 | AMERICAN IDOL-WEDNESDAY | FOX | 26,303 | 22,353 | 3,950 | 17.7% |
| 20 | BROTHERS & SISTERS | ABC | 9,416 | 8,022 | 1,394 | 17.4% |
The % Time-shifting table ranks which of the Top 150 broadcast shows [by Live+7 viewers] had the largest % increase in viewing between Live audience and Live+7 audience numbers from viewers watching shows later on their digital video recorders (DVRs).
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 Nielsen Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:51 pm
It may have gotten good ratings being time shifted the first week, but I want to see the numbers a month from now.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:59 pm
This proves more than ever that the audience for “Lost” cannot be judged on overnight ratings alone. “Lost” is “Must-See-on-DVR” because of its complex narrative, so its fans are huge time shifters. If you visit I-tunes, you see its 2008 episodes amongst the top 10 downloads.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Hey, I predicted that Lost watchers were also more likely to have dates on Valentine’s Day (which is the night Lost aired for the above week of info). While I agree more than a typical other show Lost is more likely to be DVR’d, I am interested to see if there was any sort of Valentine’s Day spike (it could well be that’s not the case, but we won’t know until next week!) I ask you to repeat the following after me:
Top 10 On Itunes is COMPLETELY meaningless
Top 10 On Itunes is COMPLETELY meaningless
Top 10 On Itunes is COMPLETELY meaningless
if you don’t feel clean yet, lather, rinse, repeat…
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Okay, Sarah Connor ended up beating out Big Brother, Jericho, Las Vegas, Prison Break, Boston Legal and Family Guy. So hard to believe it’s on the bubble. Why Fox won’t give them the credit for the time-shifted viewing is beyond me.
Bill, I was curious, in your experience, do two-hour finales like the one they’re having tonight generate an good uptick in live viewership? Do you think Sarah Connor can pull off an extra 2 million live viewers tonight?
I’ve been hearing that Fox will probably pull the plug if they can’t get back up to the season average. I think that’s probably like 8.5 - 9 million live viewers.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Sarah Connor is an 18-49 juggernaut, my bet is they bring it back regardless of DVR usage. Sarah Connor and Prison Break were the only SCRIPTED FOX shows in the top 20 18-49 the week ending 2/24.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:36 pm
frankj, I’m not sure how to factor the show duration into the equation, but Terminator has fairly weak competition during the 8-10 period tonight.
I doubt we’ll see an extra 2 million though, that would put it at about 11.5m and except for the premiere it hasn’t come close to that. I could see it hitting 10m though, which was the level for episode #2.
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:46 pm
Do networks really look at DVR #s to determine if a show will stay or go? I guess they could help a bubble show. It’s good to see Boston Legal on some sort of top 20 list.
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:51 pm
It may have gotten good ratings being time shifted the first week, but I want to see the numbers a month from now.
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:59 pm
This proves more than ever that the audience for “Lost” cannot be judged on overnight ratings alone. “Lost” is “Must-See-on-DVR” because of its complex narrative, so its fans are huge time shifters. If you visit I-tunes, you see its 2008 episodes amongst the top 10 downloads.
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Hey, I predicted that Lost watchers were also more likely to have dates on Valentine's Day (which is the night Lost aired for the above week of info). While I agree more than a typical other show Lost is more likely to be DVR'd, I am interested to see if there was any sort of Valentine's Day spike (it could well be that's not the case, but we won't know until next week!) I ask you to repeat the following after me:
Top 10 On Itunes is COMPLETELY meaningless
Top 10 On Itunes is COMPLETELY meaningless
Top 10 On Itunes is COMPLETELY meaningless
if you don't feel clean yet, lather, rinse, repeat…
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:15 pm
Okay, Sarah Connor ended up beating out Big Brother, Jericho, Las Vegas, Prison Break, Boston Legal and Family Guy. So hard to believe it's on the bubble. Why Fox won't give them the credit for the time-shifted viewing is beyond me.
Bill, I was curious, in your experience, do two-hour finales like the one they're having tonight generate an good uptick in live viewership? Do you think Sarah Connor can pull off an extra 2 million live viewers tonight?
I've been hearing that Fox will probably pull the plug if they can't get back up to the season average. I think that's probably like 8.5 - 9 million live viewers.
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Sarah Connor is an 18-49 juggernaut, my bet is they bring it back regardless of DVR usage. Sarah Connor and Prison Break were the only SCRIPTED FOX shows in the top 20 18-49 the week ending 2/24.
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:21 pm
DVR for Jericho shows a very strong audience. Given its later time slot (10 p.m.), I do hope CBS keeps in mind the DVR, online, and “On Demand” viewership!
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:36 pm
frankj, I'm not sure how to factor the show duration into the equation, but Terminator has fairly weak competition during the 8-10 period tonight.
I doubt we'll see an extra 2 million though, that would put it at about 11.5m and except for the premiere it hasn't come close to that. I could see it hitting 10m though, which was the level for episode #2.
March 3rd, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Jericho! Yes!
March 3rd, 2008 at 5:46 pm
Do networks really look at DVR #s to determine if a show will stay or go? I guess they could help a bubble show. It's good to see Boston Legal on some sort of top 20 list.
March 3rd, 2008 at 6:21 pm
DVR for Jericho shows a very strong audience. Given its later time slot (10 p.m.), I do hope CBS keeps in mind the DVR, online, and “On Demand” viewership!
March 3rd, 2008 at 6:48 pm
“Top 10 On Itunes is COMPLETELY meaningless.” Robert– So the writers strike was about nothing???
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:16 pm
Jericho! Yes!
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:42 pm
I like the the Jericho numbers!
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:45 pm
Does this mean that Jericho actually won it’s timeslot for the Premiere? Do we have the 18-49 numbers for DVR shifting?
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:52 pm
Rob, the writer’s strike was about nothing…today. Tomorrow, as they say, is another day
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Guys, thanks for the info.
I just watched the finale, and even though they had to end it after nine episodes, it was really good. The show just keeps getting better and better. I’m hoping it reached that 10 million in live viewers. Fox really needs to renew this show.
By the way I was curious, how soon do the live numbers come out? Does Nielson know now or do they wait until the end of the day’s programming to report?
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:08 pm
Frank, so far as I know (which does not necessarily equal the way it actually is) overnight fast national numbers based on the metered markets come out early in the AM the following day. They are not just live numbers though, but “Live+SD” (same day DVR usage). For example, I’m going to wait about 15 more minutes (it’s 8:05pm PST) to start watching the Sarah Connor finale so I can SKIP (as opposed to fast forward) through all the commercials.
Were I a Nielsen family (sadly, not) I would not count as LIVE, but I would still show up in the overnight numbers because I watched before 3am the next morning.
someday, the folks who run the TV business will realize there are all kinds of revenue streams.
Something I’d pay at least $100 a year for (at least) access to the FOX, NBC, ABC, CBS and CW EAST COAST feeds. If I could’ve watched Terminator: TSCC at 5pm my time (or 5:20p as the DVR commercial skipper I am) it would’ve worked much better for me. I would pay for that capability.
I have no doubt I will be able to pay for this someday.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:21 pm
Robert I believe you can. My uncle has a dish, and I was there way back in 2000, and he got the NY NBC station. And he lives in Dallas.
So if it was there then, then it’s gotta be there now.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:36 pm
Ann Marie, Unfortunately we did get full age demographic information until recently and we are trying to find out why it stopped. Right now we only get info on the top 40 shows for 18-49, but we hope to get back to having that data for all broadcast shows.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:41 pm
Right the “Live+SD”, I keep forgetting about that. I guess my viewing is counted like that, I record it and watch it live.
It’s interesting, I actually was a “Nielson family” once. This was a few years ago. But it wasn’t for overnights, I had to fill out a small booklet for about two weeks and then mail it back to them. I think I remember reading they used that type of survey to help set advertising rates. So I like to think I directly contributed to Fox getting the huge advertising dollars they charged for the Spring portion of Season Two of 24. I filled out the booklet during the Fall.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:48 pm
“Top 10 On Itunes is COMPLETELY meaningless.” Robert– So the writers strike was about nothing???
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:22 pm
Kayarn, I have Comcast and though DTV has many plusses — once you’ve had On-Demand you’ll never go back. It’s all about the on-demand!
Frank, it sounds like you were a “Sweeps month” Nielsen home! Very cool. Why Nielsen is more concerned with “better data” only during sweeps…ugh.
BTW,I loved season 2 of 24, though I may love Summer Glau more!
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:42 pm
I like the the Jericho numbers!
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Does this mean that Jericho actually won it's timeslot for the Premiere? Do we have the 18-49 numbers for DVR shifting?
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:52 pm
Rob, the writer's strike was about nothing…today. Tomorrow, as they say, is another day
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:55 pm
Guys, thanks for the info.
I just watched the finale, and even though they had to end it after nine episodes, it was really good. The show just keeps getting better and better. I'm hoping it reached that 10 million in live viewers. Fox really needs to renew this show.
By the way I was curious, how soon do the live numbers come out? Does Nielson know now or do they wait until the end of the day's programming to report?
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:08 pm
Frank, so far as I know (which does not necessarily equal the way it actually is) overnight fast national numbers based on the metered markets come out early in the AM the following day. They are not just live numbers though, but “Live+SD” (same day DVR usage). For example, I'm going to wait about 15 more minutes (it's 8:05pm PST) to start watching the Sarah Connor finale so I can SKIP (as opposed to fast forward) through all the commercials.
Were I a Nielsen family (sadly, not) I would not count as LIVE, but I would still show up in the overnight numbers because I watched before 3am the next morning.
someday, the folks who run the TV business will realize there are all kinds of revenue streams.
Something I'd pay at least $100 a year for (at least) access to the FOX, NBC, ABC, CBS and CW EAST COAST feeds. If I could've watched Terminator: TSCC at 5pm my time (or 5:20p as the DVR commercial skipper I am) it would've worked much better for me. I would pay for that capability.
I have no doubt I will be able to pay for this someday.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:20 pm
Kayarn, both Dish & DirecTV can’t offer their customers out of market NBC, ABC, FOX, CBS or CW feeds. This is due to a law passed stating that satellite companies can only provide you those signals if and only if your local channels are not available in your area. Before DirecTV added my areas locals I had the NY & LA local stations. Once they added the local channels they removed my access to the NY & LA channels and provided me with local CBS, NBC, etc. This is due to a syndex law where a local station can apply for “syndication exclusivity” for any of their programming (network included).
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Robert I believe you can. My uncle has a dish, and I was there way back in 2000, and he got the NY NBC station. And he lives in Dallas.
So if it was there then, then it's gotta be there now.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:22 pm
But now I went with cable due to the fact my cable company actually provides better Internet than the phone company. And like Robert said once you had On Demand you never go back.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:36 pm
Ann Marie, Unfortunately we did get full age demographic information until recently and we are trying to find out why it stopped. Right now we only get info on the top 40 shows for 18-49, but we hope to get back to having that data for all broadcast shows.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:41 pm
Right the “Live+SD”, I keep forgetting about that. I guess my viewing is counted like that, I record it and watch it live.
It's interesting, I actually was a “Nielson family” once. This was a few years ago. But it wasn't for overnights, I had to fill out a small booklet for about two weeks and then mail it back to them. I think I remember reading they used that type of survey to help set advertising rates. So I like to think I directly contributed to Fox getting the huge advertising dollars they charged for the Spring portion of Season Two of 24. I filled out the booklet during the Fall.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Josh - I suspect it’s getting harder and harder to find places that are so rural you can get the feed for both coasts. I lived in Washington State for a while 2002-2003 and had DTV (it was the ONLY way to get High Def other than OTA back then).
I was more than 90 miles from Seattle and I still had the Seattle local channels foisted on me, with no ability to get the NY feeds.
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:22 pm
Kayarn, I have Comcast and though DTV has many plusses — once you've had On-Demand you'll never go back. It's all about the on-demand!
Frank, it sounds like you were a “Sweeps month” Nielsen home! Very cool. Why Nielsen is more concerned with “better data” only during sweeps…ugh.
BTW,I loved season 2 of 24, though I may love Summer Glau more!
March 4th, 2008 at 12:20 am
Kayarn, both Dish & DirecTV can't offer their customers out of market NBC, ABC, FOX, CBS or CW feeds. This is due to a law passed stating that satellite companies can only provide you those signals if and only if your local channels are not available in your area. Before DirecTV added my areas locals I had the NY & LA local stations. Once they added the local channels they removed my access to the NY & LA channels and provided me with local CBS, NBC, etc. This is due to a syndex law where a local station can apply for “syndication exclusivity” for any of their programming (network included).
March 4th, 2008 at 12:22 am
But now I went with cable due to the fact my cable company actually provides better Internet than the phone company. And like Robert said once you had On Demand you never go back.
March 4th, 2008 at 12:46 am
Josh - I suspect it's getting harder and harder to find places that are so rural you can get the feed for both coasts. I lived in Washington State for a while 2002-2003 and had DTV (it was the ONLY way to get High Def other than OTA back then).
I was more than 90 miles from Seattle and I still had the Seattle local channels foisted on me, with no ability to get the NY feeds.
March 4th, 2008 at 1:36 am
I love Jericho and Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles!
Nielsen ratings just never seem to correctly rate Sci-Fi type shows. Sci-Fi fans are just not adequately represented plus most are tech geeks so they love On Demand, TiVo/DVR, Online, etc. Nielsen needs to get it together and coordinate with all cable, on demand, online, DVR, etc to get more realistic numbers.
Heck they thought Star Trek and Firefly had lousy ratings yet Star Trek is a cultural icon and Firefly had very strong DVD sales.
March 4th, 2008 at 3:11 am
I am glad to see the numbers for both Jericho & Big Brother up with DVR usage.
Robert - I know I loved having both the east & west coast feeds. I wish it was somehow possible to have the west cost feeds for additional price I would pay it.
March 4th, 2008 at 3:36 am
I love Jericho and Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles!
Nielsen ratings just never seem to correctly rate Sci-Fi type shows. Sci-Fi fans are just not adequately represented plus most are tech geeks so they love On Demand, TiVo/DVR, Online, etc. Nielsen needs to get it together and coordinate with all cable, on demand, online, DVR, etc to get more realistic numbers.
Heck they thought Star Trek and Firefly had lousy ratings yet Star Trek is a cultural icon and Firefly had very strong DVD sales.
March 4th, 2008 at 4:20 am
I hope Sarah Connor Chronicles gets renewed. I love the show and I hope these live +7 numbers will help the cause to get it renewed. And Robert, you have excellent taste but then again, who wouldn’t be attracted to the incredibly talented miss Summer Glau!
March 4th, 2008 at 5:11 am
I am glad to see the numbers for both Jericho & Big Brother up with DVR usage.
Robert - I know I loved having both the east & west coast feeds. I wish it was somehow possible to have the west cost feeds for additional price I would pay it.
March 4th, 2008 at 5:12 am
Jericho is the best show on TV! If you are not watching it you definitely should be.
March 4th, 2008 at 6:20 am
I hope Sarah Connor Chronicles gets renewed. I love the show and I hope these live +7 numbers will help the cause to get it renewed. And Robert, you have excellent taste but then again, who wouldn't be attracted to the incredibly talented miss Summer Glau!
March 4th, 2008 at 6:53 am
Robert, yeah I think it was in November of that year. And you know it’s funny now that I’m thinking about all of this again, I really think Fox owes me a second season of Terminator:SCC.
Anyway, hopefully the numbers were good for SCC last night. I can’t wait to see how they turned out.
March 4th, 2008 at 7:12 am
Jericho is the best show on TV! If you are not watching it you definitely should be.
March 4th, 2008 at 7:18 am
huh…for some reason my last comment did not show up. I may have typed my email in wrong.
Anyway, Robert, yes I think it was sweeps month, it was in November of that year.
March 4th, 2008 at 8:15 am
By the way, Robert, the number I’m hearing passed around for the Sarah Connor finale is a 5.1/8 in the overnights. Is that accurate?
March 4th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Robert, yeah I think it was in November of that year. And you know it's funny now that I'm thinking about all of this again, I really think Fox owes me a second season of Terminator:SCC.
Anyway, hopefully the numbers were good for SCC last night. I can't wait to see how they turned out.
March 4th, 2008 at 9:18 am
huh…for some reason my last comment did not show up. I may have typed my email in wrong.
Anyway, Robert, yes I think it was sweeps month, it was in November of that year.
March 4th, 2008 at 9:23 am
Frank, yep.
March 4th, 2008 at 10:15 am
By the way, Robert, the number I'm hearing passed around for the Sarah Connor finale is a 5.1/8 in the overnights. Is that accurate?
March 4th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Hi! Thanks for posting the DVR numbers it’s always interesting to see how my favorite shows fare . As far as setting ad rates, what numbers are being used. I’ve heard Live, Live+SD, Live+3 and Live+7 being tossed around this year - which one actually counts in the end?
March 4th, 2008 at 10:44 am
They say what really counts are the C+3 ratings which are the commercial ratings with 3 days of DVR usage. We do not get the commercial ratings.
Everything we’ve seen so far leads me to believe that C+3 tracks so closely with LIVE+SD numbers, that because the LIVE+SD (same day) come out soooo much sooner, my guess is those and the demo numbers are the numbers that count.
March 4th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Frank, yep.
March 4th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
Hi! Thanks for posting the DVR numbers it's always interesting to see how my favorite shows fare . As far as setting ad rates, what numbers are being used. I've heard Live, Live+SD, Live+3 and Live+7 being tossed around this year - which one actually counts in the end?
March 4th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
They say what really counts are the C+3 ratings which are the commercial ratings with 3 days of DVR usage. We do not get the commercial ratings.
Everything we've seen so far leads me to believe that C+3 tracks so closely with LIVE+SD numbers, that because the LIVE+SD (same day) come out soooo much sooner, my guess is those and the demo numbers are the numbers that count.
March 4th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Thanks for the info, and here’s the follow up? Might live+3 for a show that airs on Thurs, Fri, or Sat track more closely to Live+7 since I’m guessing most people catch up on DVR recorded shows on the weekend?
March 4th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Multi, we have almost no data on C+3 and we have no data on the particular days of the week that people watch their DVR’d shows, so it’s just a guess, but I’d think that there are so many factors that influence when a show gets watched on DVR that it would be tough to isolate just one of them. With the level of data we see, it would be impossible.
March 4th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
Multi most of the analysis I’ve seen over about the last year suggest that regardless of what night, most of the DVR viewing was front loaded (most of the viewing happend within 72 hours). I’ve seen studies that suggest that’s getting pushed further out.
We can do only a tiny little bit of analysis with what we have. For the LOST episode above it was 11.99 million LIVE, 13.76m LIVE+SD and 15.64 LIVE+7. So almost half (48.3%) of the LOST DVR viewership for the week above happened within 6 hours of when it broadcast (the cut off is 3am).
So 48% happening with the first 6 hours suggests to me things are definitely still front loaded, at least in the case of Lost.
March 4th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
yea but how much are advertisers willing to pay for that kind of viewership where people can essentially fast-forward through the commercials. and subsequently, how highly do networks factor in dvr numbers when they look to pick up shows.
some presumed bubble shows like friday night lights add over 1 million people L+7. i guess that can only help them, but how much?
March 4th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Thanks for the info, and here's the follow up? Might live+3 for a show that airs on Thurs, Fri, or Sat track more closely to Live+7 since I'm guessing most people catch up on DVR recorded shows on the weekend?
March 4th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Multi, we have almost no data on C+3 and we have no data on the particular days of the week that people watch their DVR'd shows, so it's just a guess, but I'd think that there are so many factors that influence when a show gets watched on DVR that it would be tough to isolate just one of them. With the level of data we see, it would be impossible.
March 4th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Kayarn, why do you think one of the companies Nielsen recently bought was a biometric research company? One of its primary objectives I’m sure will be to document how the advertising, even when it’s viewed via fast forwarding is still effective.
These sorts of studies so far have shown that especially the commercial right before the show comes back on receives a lot of focus during fast forwarding as users are focused to figure out when to stop.
If I were an advertiser I wouldn’t want to pay for any of the DVR users fast-forwarding unless I was the last spot, and even then, I wouldn’t want to pay as much as I would for people who aren’t watching via DVR. I think Nielsen will spend a bit of money trying to convince the advertisers its still effective. The only way I see it not happening that way is if the advertisers start paying Nielsen more than the broadcast networks do and I don’t see that happening.
March 4th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Multi most of the analysis I've seen over about the last year suggest that regardless of what night, most of the DVR viewing was front loaded (most of the viewing happend within 72 hours). I've seen studies that suggest that's getting pushed further out.
We can do only a tiny little bit of analysis with what we have. For the LOST episode above it was 11.99 million LIVE, 13.76m LIVE+SD and 15.64 LIVE+7. So almost half (48.3%) of the LOST DVR viewership for the week above happened within 6 hours of when it broadcast (the cut off is 3am).
So 48% happening with the first 6 hours suggests to me things are definitely still front loaded, at least in the case of Lost.
March 4th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Or, maybe we are adequately represented but an audience which the advertisers simply do not care to point themselves at. We are small, smaller than the masses that want zombie TV. It would, IMO, be way more interesting to see who had more disposable income and what type of things we purchase. However, we are also the type that balk at too much of our habits being known and the information used. So perhaps it is like the old “break up” line “It’s not you, it’s me”.
I agree it is totally frustrating. Ray Bradbury wrote Fahrenheit 451 because he was afraid TV would destroy book reading. Honestly, I don’t think that has been a valid concern until recently. There is certainly a chance that someone who likes Jericho will pick up Alas, Babylon (and must because recently while in Barnes and Noble there was an entire stack of that novel on a center aisle table), but what are the watchers of American Idol going to go read?
March 4th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
yea but how much are advertisers willing to pay for that kind of viewership where people can essentially fast-forward through the commercials. and subsequently, how highly do networks factor in dvr numbers when they look to pick up shows.
some presumed bubble shows like friday night lights add over 1 million people L+7. i guess that can only help them, but how much?
March 4th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
Kayarn, why do you think one of the companies Nielsen recently bought was a biometric research company? One of its primary objectives I'm sure will be to document how the advertising, even when it's viewed via fast forwarding is still effective.
These sorts of studies so far have shown that especially the commercial right before the show comes back on receives a lot of focus during fast forwarding as users are focused to figure out when to stop.
If I were an advertiser I wouldn't want to pay for any of the DVR users fast-forwarding unless I was the last spot, and even then, I wouldn't want to pay as much as I would for people who aren't watching via DVR. I think Nielsen will spend a bit of money trying to convince the advertisers its still effective. The only way I see it not happening that way is if the advertisers start paying Nielsen more than the broadcast networks do and I don't see that happening.
March 4th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Or, maybe we are adequately represented but an audience which the advertisers simply do not care to point themselves at. We are small, smaller than the masses that want zombie TV. It would, IMO, be way more interesting to see who had more disposable income and what type of things we purchase. However, we are also the type that balk at too much of our habits being known and the information used. So perhaps it is like the old “break up” line “It's not you, it's me”.
I agree it is totally frustrating. Ray Bradbury wrote Fahrenheit 451 because he was afraid TV would destroy book reading. Honestly, I don't think that has been a valid concern until recently. There is certainly a chance that someone who likes Jericho will pick up Alas, Babylon (and must because recently while in Barnes and Noble there was an entire stack of that novel on a center aisle table), but what are the watchers of American Idol going to go read?
March 4th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Thanks so much for your responses and I saw your post at NYTimes Bill G. nice job.
March 4th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
Karen, make no mistake that paying Nielsen customers likely are able to purchase significant demographic data on viewing habits for shows that we do not have access to.
Some of that may explain decisions that seem wacky without that detailed data.
March 4th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
Thanks so much for your responses and I saw your post at NYTimes Bill G. nice job.
March 4th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
Karen, I share your pain to some extent but I realize that for the most part the shows I actually am going to want to watch probably don’t usually belong on broadcast networks during primetime (save perhaps the CW).
There’s plenty of TV I love regardless, though a lot of it is on ESPN, the SciFi Channel, USA, HBO and Showtime.
My opinion is that the economics probably don’t really support a show like Jericho with the numbers it has being on a broadcast network during primetime (save perhaps the CW). That doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be on TV at all and be profitable by any means.
You’d have to imagine Jericho would be the biggest show on the CW! But whether the producers/actors/etc would want to take the haircut $ wise associated with the difference between being on CBS and the CW I have no idea.
I don’t completely agree with your viewpoint that a show like American Idol is purlely for zombies. I know many well educated, fairly well off people who enjoy the show for a variety of reasons. It’s not my cup of tea, but I am a believer in the law of large numbers and Idol’s numbers ARE LARGE. So it stands to reason that they have the most everything:
-smart people
-stupid people
-rich people
-poor people
-people who buy a lot of books
-people who never read
-etc.
March 4th, 2008 at 10:24 pm
Karen, make no mistake that paying Nielsen customers likely are able to purchase significant demographic data on viewing habits for shows that we do not have access to.
Some of that may explain decisions that seem wacky without that detailed data.
March 4th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Karen, I share your pain to some extent but I realize that for the most part the shows I actually am going to want to watch probably don't usually belong on broadcast networks during primetime (save perhaps the CW).
There's plenty of TV I love regardless, though a lot of it is on ESPN, the SciFi Channel, USA, HBO and Showtime.
My opinion is that the economics probably don't really support a show like Jericho with the numbers it has being on a broadcast network during primetime (save perhaps the CW). That doesn't mean it shouldn't be on TV at all and be profitable by any means.
You'd have to imagine Jericho would be the biggest show on the CW! But whether the producers/actors/etc would want to take the haircut $ wise associated with the difference between being on CBS and the CW I have no idea.
I don't completely agree with your viewpoint that a show like American Idol is purlely for zombies. I know many well educated, fairly well off people who enjoy the show for a variety of reasons. It's not my cup of tea, but I am a believer in the law of large numbers and Idol's numbers ARE LARGE. So it stands to reason that they have the most everything:
-smart people
-stupid people
-rich people
-poor people
-people who buy a lot of books
-people who never read
-etc.
March 5th, 2008 at 12:15 am
Jericho!!! is the best show ever!!! cant wait for season 3!!! and if we have to we will send more nuts!!!
March 5th, 2008 at 2:15 am
Jericho!!! is the best show ever!!! cant wait for season 3!!! and if we have to we will send more nuts!!!