CBS “On The Bubble” No More

Our Renew or Cancel? posts have been on hiatus since the new fall shows went dormant. Now we’ve got some data on the spring shows as well, and it’s time to look at the numbers and take some guesses on who’s coming back next fall and who’s going away permanently.

I’m going to do this on a network by network basis, so that the different shows that are in question can be looked at vs. their competition both outside and inside their own network.

In the spirit of the NCAA basketball tournament, the shows “On the Bubble” for CBS are fan favorites Jericho (Update: on 3/21/08, CBS announced it would not renew Jericho), Moonlight and Cane 5/13 Update: Both Cancelled.. Let’s take a look at their chances for being renewed or cancelled.

UPDATE: Go here to see the 2008 Fall Schedule for CBS.

CBS “Bottom 20″ Ranked by Season to Date Adults 18-49

*since Jericho hasn’t had the same competition in its timeslot this spring, this is an average of its 5 broadcasts.

The Case for Moonlight

[UPDATE: Moonlight has been cancelled by CBS]

• Moonlight ratings put it #30 at CBS for season to date adults 18-49, and #26 for average viewers.
• Moonlight aired in a lightly viewed timeslot on Fridays, so its relative timeslot ratings matter. There it was very slightly behind Friday Night Lights [18-49, 2.90m, Viewers, 6.21m] for the 18-49 lead, but solidly in second place for average viewers behind Women’s Murder Club [18-49, 2.63m, Viewers, 8.94m].
• Moonlight gets another chance to prove itself this spring with 4 new episodes starting April 11.

The Case for Cane

[UPDATE: Cane has been cancelled by CBS]

• Cane ratings put it #26 at CBS for season to date adults 18-49, and #20 for average viewers.
• Cane’s Tuesday timeslot is more highly viewed than Moonlight’s. There it was a consistent third, trailing both Law and Order: SVU [18-49, 5.79m, Viewers, 12.01m] and Boston Legal [18-49, 3.95m, Viewers, 9.89m] by significant margins, particularly in the 18-49 demo.

The Case for Jericho

[UPDATE: Jericho has been cancelled by CBS]

• Jericho ratings put it #27 at CBS for season to date adults 18-49, and #29 for average viewers.
• Jericho hasn’t had the same competition in its timeslot for its 5 outings so far, so comparisons are a bit trickier. It has consistently finished very far behind reruns of Law & Order: SVU in both total viewers and adults 18-49. Jericho typically edged out the ABC competition of either Boston Legal or Primetime in the 18-49 demo for second place, but consistently finished third for total viewers except the one night it moved up to second against the pathetic Quarterlife.
• Unlike Moonlight & Cane, which ran their new episodes generally vs. other new competition, Jericho had no new episode competition from NBC [except, Quarterlife] and faced Primetime specials 3 nights from ABC. So it needs to be noted that Jericho’s performance comes against much weaker competition from the other broadcast networks.

My Guesses

It’s possible that all 3 of these shows get the axe, but I think that’s unlikely. But even with CBS scrambling after the writer’s strike, I think there’s is no chance they’re all coming back.

My money is on a Moonlight renewal and Cane and Jericho cancellations.

Fans, what do you think will happen?

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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 Nielsen Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved.