ABC “On The Bubble” No More

NBC stole whatever thunder I might have had from an “on the bubble” analysis by announcing their new schedule earlier than ever before.

I figure I’d better look at the ABC shows up for renewal before they do the same thing! To the best of my knowledge, the ABC shows with an uncertain futures are According to Jim, Boston Legal, Brothers & Sisters, Eli Stone, Here Come the Newlyweds, Just for Laughs, Men in Trees, Miss Guided, Notes from the Underbelly, October Road, Samantha Who?, Oprah’s Big Give, Ugly Betty and Women’s Murder Club.

The following shows have been cancelled, although there may or may not have been an announcement: Big Shots, Carpoolers, Cashmere Mafia, Men in Trees, and Cavemen. The following shows have been announced as returning in Fall 2008: Samantha Who?, Ugly Betty, Brothers & Sisters, Dirty Sexy Money, Private Practice, Pushing Daisies.

UPDATE: Go here to see the 2008 Fall Schedule for ABC.

On to the analysis:

Selected ABC Shows Ranked by Season to Date Adults 18-49, and Season to Date Viewers

Guaranteed Return

• Brothers & Sisters [edit: announced as already renewed]
  
• Oprah’s Big Give Assuming Ms. Winfrey wants it to return. 5/13 Update: Apparently, she did not! It’s cancelled.

Likely Return

• Samantha Who? [edit: announced as already renewed]
• Here Come the Newlyweds

Toss Up

These shows did *worse* than Big Shots (already cancelled) in 18-49 but better than Dirty Sexy Money (already renewed). Confusing? Indeed.

• Ugly Betty [edit: announced as already renewed]
• Supernanny [edit: announced as already renewed]
• Eli Stone Better in viewers than DSM, and just behind DSM in 18-49 adults. Also, has good DVR (Live+7) numbers. Update: Renewed
  

These two shows have above average viewership for ABC, but well below average 18-49 viewership.

• Boston Legal Anecdotally, said to have great numbers with high income HH’s. Update: Renewed
• Women’s Murder Club Only 31% of its viewers are in the 18-49 demo. Ouch. Update: Cancelled

Show Me The Money

• According to Jim On ratings numbers alone, it should be gone, but reports are that its syndication prospects will likely save it.

Stick a Fork In Them, They’re Done

• Wife Swap [edit: announced as already renewed]
• October Road, Update: Cancelled
• Notes from the Underbelly, Update: Cancelled
• Men In Trees [5/4 update: Producers have been told it has been cancelled]
• Just For Laughs

There’s Always A Special Rule For Somebody, Isn’t There?

• Miss Guided Nielsen’s rule is that if an episode is designated a “special” then it doesn’t accumulate its own season to date numbers. count in the network’s weekly or season to date average ratings. Well, every single episode of Miss Guided was designated as a “special”, so it doesn’t appear in any have its own season to date aggregate numbers. It’s almost as if ABC *knew* it wasn’t going to do well before it aired and took it just to keep on the good side of director Ashton Kutcher. We’ve been Punk’d. Update: Cancelled.

Fans, what do you think will happen?

* owing to the vagaries of network show announcements or non announcements, this list may very well be incorrect. Comment with a link if you know better!

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 Nielsen Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved.