Wayne Friedman at MediaWatch, has some quotes from Sinclair Broadcast Group’s CEO David Smith saying that DVR usage has had little impact on his stations. Now I don’t know the Sinclair business at all, so I’m not able to say whether Smith is correct, posturing, or ignoring reality.
What I do know is how much people are using their DVRs. And while DVR viewing is a small portion of prime-time broadcast TV viewing today, it’s growing very rapidly, up 64% vs. last season at this point.
In the 2006-7 primetime season through April 22, 2007, DVR viewers made up 4.3% of all primetime broadcast show viewers for the top 6 broadcast networks. The share was higher for the youth age demographics: Adults 18-49, 6.3%, Adults 18-34, 6.3%, and Adults 25-54, 6.0%.
By the 2007-8 season (through April 20, 2007), DVR viewers made up 7.5% of all primetime broadcast show viewers, an increase of 64%. For adults 18-49 DVR viewers were 10.6%, an increase of 53%. For adults 18-34 DVR viewers were 11.7%, an increase of 41%. For adults 25-54 DVR viewers were 10.2%, an increase of 59%.
DVRs are now in over 20% of US TV homes this season (up from about 9% last season), and that share will continue to increase. But while I have no data, I’d also expect the use of DVRs within households to increase. I’d guess that people use their DVRs more the longer they have them up to a point, and since the number of DVR households is growing so rapidly many people have only recently obtained one.
It’s true that DVRs are used much less to watch the most popular cable and syndicated shows than they are used on primetime broadcast shows, but if you’re in the TV business it’s not a matter of if your business will be affected by the DVR just when.
Season to Date 2007-8 Broadcast Primetime DVR Viewership Data , Top 6 Networks
Interesting to see that Fox lags somewhat in it’s share of DVR viewers season to date. Likely because it received significant primetime viewership from both the MLB playoffs last fall and the Super Bowl in February and both are very lightly DVR viewed. The fact that the CW leads all networks in DVR viewing share isn’t terribly surprising considering its focus on younger demographic groups. Univision viewing by DVR lags far behind the other broadcast networks, likely because DVR penetration in their viewing households is lower than the national average, but we have no data on that.
For those of you interested in the viewing data itself here are the season to date viewership numbers for 2007-8 through 4/20/08. The numbers are all in millions except the DVR share data.
Another thing the data puts to rest is the argument, “Sure, live viewing is down, but it all went to DVRs”. Not so. Overall live viewing is down 10% season to date, somewhat more for the youth age demos. DVR viewing (Live+7) is down 7%, again somewhat more for the demos.
So while some of the lost Live viewing this season was lost to DVR viewing, the majority of it was just lost to broadcast altogether. Likely the majority of it went to cable, but we don’t have comparable viewing share data to compare season to season at this point.
| 2007-8 Live STD |
Through 4/20/08 | |||
| Viewers | Adults 18-49 | Adults 18-34 | Adults 25-54 | |
| ABC | 8.42 | 3.47 | 1.38 | 3.88 |
| CBS | 9.67 | 3.45 | 1.18 | 4.18 |
| NBC | 7.69 | 3.38 | 1.38 | 3.70 |
| FOX | 10.47 | 5.04 | 2.29 | 5.20 |
| CW | 2.33 | 1.18 | 0.63 | 1.07 |
| UNI | 3.49 | 1.96 | 1.13 | 1.78 |
| Total |
42.07 |
18.48 |
7.99 |
19.81 |
| Change from 2006-7 | -10% | -13% | -14% | -12% |
| 2007-8 Live+7 STD |
||||
| Viewers | Adults 18-49 | Adults 18-34 | Adults 25-54 | |
| ABC | 9.17 | 3.93 | 1.59 | 4.38 |
| CBS | 10.49 | 3.94 | 1.38 | 4.72 |
| NBC | 8.35 | 3.83 | 1.60 | 4.16 |
| FOX | 11.33 | 5.62 | 2.59 | 5.77 |
| CW | 2.58 | 1.36 | 0.75 | 1.23 |
| UNI | 3.54 | 1.99 | 1.14 | 1.81 |
| Total | 45.46 | 20.67 | 9.05 | 22.07 |
| Change from 2006-7 | -7% | -9% | -10% | -8% |
| DVR Viewing 2007-8 STD |
||||
| Viewers | Adults 18-49 | Adults 18-34 | Adults 25-54 | |
| ABC | 0.75 | 0.46 | 0.21 | 0.50 |
| CBS | 0.82 | 0.49 | 0.20 | 0.54 |
| NBC | 0.66 | 0.45 | 0.22 | 0.46 |
| FOX | 0.86 | 0.58 | 0.30 | 0.57 |
| CW | 0.25 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| UNI | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Total | 3.39 | 2.19 | 1.06 | 2.26 |
| Change from 2006-7 | 64% | 53% | 41% | 59% |
| % Viewing by DVR STD |
||||
| Viewers | Adults 18-49 | Adults 18-34 | Adults 25-54 | |
| ABC | 8.2% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 11.4% |
| CBS | 7.8% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 11.4% |
| NBC | 7.9% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 11.1% |
| FOX | 7.6% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 9.9% |
| CW | 9.7% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 13.0% |
| UNI | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% |
| Total | 7.5% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 10.2% |
I haven’t included the 2006-7 numbers above which were used for the season to season calculations, but if anyone is interested feel free to email me for them.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 Nielsen Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
May 8th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
Thank you so much for publicizing this. When I read how viewers are not returning to their favorite network shows, and network executives are puzzled, and series are recording season lows and series lows, Iand certain “haters” are gleefully reporting that “Desperate Housewives” isn't popular any more (just as an example), I want to scream at the authors of those articles to make sure they are comparing apples to apples. You really should be comparing Live + 7 ratings for Spring 2008 to Live + 7 ratings for Spring 2007 to really determine whether, and by how much, a show's total audience has declined.
May 8th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
DVR is not as important as live viewers. One of these days advertisers will look solely at who's watching commercials, than avg viewers totals. Networks need to start creating incentives to get folks to watch their shows live. American Idol has an advantage because it is live, and so do sports.
My idea for networks is live blogs with the cast immediately after the live viewing. Show with rabid fan bases would eat it up. I think moonlight, gossip girl, lost, office would all see their live ratings improve a little. It may not be a lot but this is how networks need to be thinking.
May 8th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
DVR is not as important as live viewers. One of these days advertisers will look solely at who's watching commercials, than avg viewers totals. Networks need to start creating incentives to get folks to watch their shows live. American Idol has an advantage because it is live, and so do sports.
My idea for networks is live blogs with the cast immediately after the live viewing. Show with rabid fan bases would eat it up. I think moonlight, gossip girl, lost, office would all see their live ratings improve a little. It may not be a lot but this is how networks need to be thinking.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
People are now using DVRs to PROTECT THEIR CHILDREN from the Quasi-Pornographic Prescription Drug Ads that Pharmacutical Companies are putting out. These ads, for products dealing with Sex and “Bodily Functions” are aired frequently AT TIMES WHEN CHILDREN ARE WATCHING! I've seen them aired on Weekend Afternoon Sports Events such as NASCAR, PGA Golf and the Kentucky Derby, as well as during JEOPARDY! and WHEEL OF FORTUNE on weeknights. (Last year I even saw a VIAGARA Ad air during a Childrens Program!) The Pharmacutical Companies do not care who is watching these ads, and I do not blame Parents who have resorted to DVRs to shield their Kids from this filth.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
People are now using DVRs to PROTECT THEIR CHILDREN from the Quasi-Pornographic Prescription Drug Ads that Pharmacutical Companies are putting out. These ads, for products dealing with Sex and “Bodily Functions” are aired frequently AT TIMES WHEN CHILDREN ARE WATCHING! I've seen them aired on Weekend Afternoon Sports Events such as NASCAR, PGA Golf and the Kentucky Derby, as well as during JEOPARDY! and WHEEL OF FORTUNE on weeknights. (Last year I even saw a VIAGARA Ad air during a Childrens Program!) The Pharmacutical Companies do not care who is watching these ads, and I do not blame Parents who have resorted to DVRs to shield their Kids from this filth.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Oh yeah Regulus, THAT'S what is driving DVR growth…
I wish Disqus had a “whack job” filter. Of course, I wouldn't get to comment as much if that was the case, but still.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Oh yeah Regulus, THAT'S what is driving DVR growth…
I wish Disqus had a “whack job” filter. Of course, I wouldn't get to comment as much if that was the case, but still.