ABC is reporting 17.3 million watched last night’s game 5 of the NBA Finals. The Los Angeles Lakes won game five over the Boston Celtics forcing a game six tomorrow in Boston. The series, already averaging 14.5 million seems a lock for averaging 15 million after game 6.
ABC is reporting good performance in key demographics. I found ABC’s recent DVR boilerplate update interesting:
A note about increasing DVR penetration and year-to-year rating comparisons: Year-to-year rating trends based on the Live + Same Day data stream may be somewhat distorted by the level of DVR penetration in the Nielsen sample, which has jumped from 17% at the same point in 2006-07, up to 25% currently. More viewers are watching shows on their own timetables, which may not be reflected in the overnight next day numbers. The only truly valid year-to-year comparison would be one based on the Live + 7 Day metric, once those stats are released by Nielsen.
June 16th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Very interesting boilerplate indeed. I think the networks are going to be frustrated by this. Most media will not be interested in waiting the extra 2 weeks to get the data to do the Live+7 comparison and will simply go with what's available immediately, which is Live+SD.
I think ABC does have a point, but I think the expediency of the media will render it moot.
And I clearly underestimated the jump that would happen after game 4. Now that I think about it, it makes sense that viewership would jump up for any game that could be the final one.
June 17th, 2008 at 9:21 am
That 15 million turned out to be a great over-under. I don't think it's in the bag yet. If the Celtics win tonight ABC's got to do 17.5 million to get there. Tonight's competition will be a little tougher than the Tonys, the game may not be close, it's a work day which impacts the west coast audience. It's gonna be pretty darn close.
June 17th, 2008 at 9:48 am
If ABC actually believed that the only truly valid comparison is Live + Seven Day, then that's all they'd release. Simply by issuing Live + SD comparisons they indicate that they don't believe their own argument.
For sports programs, the difference in audience between Live + SD and Live + 7 is frequently less than 1%. It's certainly not a difference that would cause anyone to say that the Live + SD comparison is an invalid measure of success or failure.
When the Live + 7 figures become available for Game 1 I'll post them. I'll predict with confidence that the difference will be trivial.
June 17th, 2008 at 10:30 am
You can save the live plus seven posting for sporting events, besides we'll see it anyway.. The problem with boilerplate is it gets stuck everywhere, but I predict even FOX will put such boilerplate in its ratings press releases come the fall.