See the latest week’s Renew/Cancel Index here, including the latest predictions for which shows will be cancelled.
Last season I tried a variety of methods to predict which new shows were doing well and which were doing poorly. All of them suffered from a scaling problem. A massive hit for the pathetic CW could still be at the bottom of the list for another network. It was hard to analytically predict the likelihood of renewal or cancellation. But at the end of last season I decided to compare a show’s 18-49 viewership to its own network’s 18-49 average and the results were quite consistent in predicting renewal or cancellation (in this case after the fact).
For this upcoming season, I’ll use this method to publish a Renew/Cancel Index that I’ll be using to predict the future of shows across the broadcast networks.
To get these tables using last seasons results through early May I simply divided a show’s season to date average adults 18-49 viewership by its network’s STD adults 18-49 average viewership.* I’ve separated the scripted and unscripted shows into two lists. As it turns out, the predictive ability of the method for scripted shows is much better than it is for unscripted shows.
Scripted Shows 2007-8 Season
For scripted shows, the line was clear. Maintain an adults 18-49 viewership above of 92% of your network average and you’re going to be renewed. Only 2 shows that did that (Bionic Woman, Big Shots) were cancelled.
Fail to exceed 92% of your network’s average adults 18-49 average viewership and you’re almost certainly cancelled. Only 6 shows below that line survived. Friday Night Lights only because it was saved by DirectTV. Two others (Ghost Whisper & Numb3rs) are also Friday night shows, a very weak 18-49 night. Eli Stone and Boston Legal were on the bubble till the last minute, and it’s still a mystery to me why ‘Til Death survived, rumor was it was so cheap that Fox decided to keep it around.
Even if that 92% threshold changes this season, we’ll still be in a good position to see which shows will likely be renewed before others.
And since every post we do about renewal or cancellation ends up becoming a post about Moonlight, perhaps this method will allow those of you folks prone to extreme emotional upset over the cancellation of a television show enough advance warning to get out before it’s too late and your hearts are broken 
June, 2009 edits: Inspired by our relationship with Nielsen, we are removing older, archived, Nielsen data from the site. The tables below are the same as the one published in August, 2008, except the show and network season to date averages have been removed (and they have been resorted). However, the Renew/Cancel Index which was calculated using the removed numbers is the same as before. For reference, the season average 18-49 viewerships were ABC: 3.71 million, CBS: 3.67 million, NBC: 3.50 million, CW: 1.27 million, and Fox: 4.10 million.
| Programs | Net | Renew/ Cancel index | Fate | |
| LIFE IS WILD | CW | 0.36 | cancelled | |
| CANTERBURY’S LAW | FOX | 0.43 | cancelled | |
| JUST FOR LAUGHS | ABC | 0.47 | cancelled | |
| AMNESIA | NBC | 0.53 | cancelled | |
| MEN IN TREES | ABC | 0.53 | cancelled | |
| K-VILLE | FOX | 0.60 | cancelled | |
| WOMEN’S MURDER CLUB | ABC | 0.64 | cancelled | |
| CARPOOLERS | ABC | 0.65 | cancelled | |
| OCTOBER ROAD | ABC | 0.66 | cancelled | |
| NOTES FROM THE UNDERBELLY | ABC | 0.66 | cancelled | |
| DEXTER | CBS | 0.68 | returned to cable | |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 0.69 | ||
| UNHITCHED | FOX | 0.70 | cancelled | |
| BACK TO YOU | FOX | 0.70 | cancelled | |
| FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS | NBC | 0.70 | survived via DirectTV deal | |
| MOONLIGHT | CBS | 0.71 | cancelled | |
| LAW AND ORDER: CRIMINAL INTENT | NBC | 0.72 | returned to cable | |
| CASHMERE MAFIA | ABC | 0.72 | cancelled | |
| ALIENS IN AMERICA | CW | 0.73 | cancelled | |
| JERICHO | CBS | 0.73 | cancelled | |
| CANE | CBS | 0.75 | cancelled | |
| NUMB3RS | CBS | 0.76 | ||
| WELCOME TO THE CAPTAIN | CBS | 0.77 | cancelled | |
| GHOST WHISPERER | CBS | 0.79 | ||
| SHARK | CBS | 0.80 | cancelled | |
| LAS VEGAS | NBC | 0.80 | cancelled | |
| NEW AMSTERDAM | FOX | 0.81 | cancelled | |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 0.82 | ||
| CAVEMEN | ABC | 0.83 | cancelled | |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 0.86 | ||
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 0.92 | ||
| JOURNEYMAN | NBC | 0.92 | cancelled | |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 0.93 | ||
| BONES | FOX | 0.93 | ||
| GIRLFRIENDS | CW | 0.93 | ||
| COLD CASE | CBS | 0.93 | ||
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS | CW | 0.94 | ||
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 0.98 | ||
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 1.00 | ||
| LIFE | NBC | 1.00 | ||
| UNIT, THE | CBS | 1.00 | ||
| AMERICAN DAD | FOX | 1.00 | ||
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 1.00 | ||
| NCIS | CBS | 1.00 | ||
| BIG SHOTS | ABC | 1.03 | cancelled | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1.04 | ||
| 30 ROCK | NBC | 1.04 | ||
| GOSSIP GIRL | CW | 1.05 | ||
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 1.05 | ||
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 1.06 | ||
| REAPER | CW | 1.06 | ||
| CRIMINAL MINDS | CBS | 1.09 | ||
| HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER | CBS | 1.09 | ||
| BIG BANG THEORY, THE | CBS | 1.10 | ||
| CSI: NY | CBS | 1.10 | ||
| SCRUBS | NBC | 1.11 | ||
| LAW AND ORDER | NBC | 1.11 | ||
| GAME, THE | CW | 1.12 | ||
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 1.16 | ||
| CHUCK | NBC | 1.16 | ||
| MEDIUM | NBC | 1.17 | ||
| SIMPSONS | FOX | 1.19 | ||
| PRIVATE PRACTICE | ABC | 1.25 | ||
| FAMILY GUY | FOX | 1.25 | ||
| E.R. | NBC | 1.25 | ||
| OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 1.27 | ||
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 1.27 | ||
| BIONIC WOMAN | NBC | 1.30 | cancelled | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 1.30 | ||
| RULES OF ENGAGEMENT | CBS | 1.35 | ||
| APPRENTICE 7 | NBC | 1.36 | ||
| BROTHERS & SISTERS | ABC | 1.36 | ||
| OFFICE | NBC | 1.37 | ||
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 1.37 | ||
| ONE TREE HILL | CW | 1.39 | ||
| LAW AND ORDER:SVU | NBC | 1.42 | ||
| SMALLVILLE | CW | 1.44 | ||
| FRIDAY NIGHT SMACKDOWN | CW | 1.45 | ||
| TWO AND A HALF MEN | CBS | 1.60 | ||
| CSI | CBS | 1.61 | ||
| LOST | ABC | 1.72 | ||
| HEROES | NBC | 1.99 | ||
| GREY’S ANATOMY | ABC | 2.01 | ||
| HOUSE | FOX | 2.05 | ||
| DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES | ABC | 2.29 |
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Unscripted Shows 2007-8 Season
The existing Renew/Cancel Index was much less clear in indicating the future of unscripted shows. It can give only a general indication, there was no bright line you could point to and say “if it only gets there, it’ll be renewed”. My guess is that it may be due to the fact that some of these shows are just so cheap to produce that almost any result is “good enough” and that they exist to just fill up programming time as cheaply as possible.
| Programs | Net | Renew/ Cancel index | Fate | |
| CW NOW | CW | 0.29 | cancelled | |
| DUEL | ABC | 0.36 | cancelled | |
| NEXT GREAT AMERICAN BAND | FOX | 0.37 | cancelled | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 0.45 | ||
| CBS MOVIE SATURDAY | CBS | 0.47 | ||
| CRIMETIME SATURDAY | CBS | 0.50 | ||
| ABC SAT MOVIE OF THE WEEK | ABC | 0.52 | ||
| 48 HOURS MYSTERY | CBS | 0.59 | ||
| COPS | FOX | 0.61 | ||
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 0.67 | ||
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 0.67 | ||
| COPS 2 | FOX | 0.71 | ||
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 0.71 | ||
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 0.72 | ||
| PRICE IS RIGHT PRIMETIME | CBS | 0.74 | ||
| MY DAD IS BETR THN YR DAD | NBC | 0.75 | cancelled | |
| DATELINE FRI | NBC | 0.75 | ||
| 1 VS 100 | NBC | 0.76 | cancelled | |
| BIG BROTHER 9-WED | CBS | 0.76 | ||
| CROWNED | CW | 0.77 | cancelled | |
| BEAUTY AND THE GEEK-3 | CW | 0.78 | cancelled | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 0.79 | ||
| KID NATION | CBS | 0.80 | cancelled | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 0.81 | ||
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 0.81 | ||
| BIG BROTHER 9-TUE | CBS | 0.82 | ||
| BIG BROTHER 9-SUN | CBS | 0.83 | ||
| PHENOMENON | NBC | 0.85 | cancelled | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 0.85 | ||
| PUSSYCAT DOLLS:GIRLICIOUS | CW | 0.86 | cancelled | |
| KITCHEN NIGHTMARES | FOX | 0.87 | ||
| DON’T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 0.90 | ||
| DANCE WAR:BRUNO/CARRIEANN | ABC | 0.92 | ||
| BACHELOR: LONDON CALLING | ABC | 0.93 | ||
| 60 MINUTES | CBS | 0.93 | ||
| SUPERNANNY | ABC | 0.94 | ||
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED | NBC | 0.98 | ||
| HERE COME THE NEWLYWEDS | ABC | 1.14 | ||
| BACHELOR, THE | ABC | 1.22 | ||
| BIGGEST LOSER 4 | NBC | 1.22 | ||
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 1.24 | ||
| AMAZING RACE 12 | CBS | 1.26 | ||
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-MON | NBC | 1.28 | ||
| BIGGEST LOSER 5 | NBC | 1.29 | ||
| OPRAH’S BIG GIVE | ABC | 1.31 | Oprah bailed | |
| OT, THE | FOX | 1.40 | ||
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 1.41 | ||
| BEAUTY AND THE GEEK-2 | CW | 1.47 | ||
| SURVIVOR: MICRONESIA | CBS | 1.50 | ||
| AMERICAN GLADIATORS | NBC | 1.52 | ||
| EXTREME MAKEOVER:HOME ED. | ABC | 1.59 | ||
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 1.59 | ||
| HELL’S KITCHEN | FOX | 1.65 | ||
| SURVIVOR: CHINA | CBS | 1.66 | ||
| DANCING W/STARS RESULT-TU | ABC | 1.67 | ||
| DANCING WITH THE STARS | ABC | 1.68 | ||
| DANCING W/THE STARS-MON | ABC | 1.87 | ||
| AMERICA’S TOP MODEL-4 | CW | 1.90 | ||
| MOMENT OF TRUTH | FOX | 1.90 | ||
| NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL | NBC | 2.37 | ||
| AMERICA’S TOP MODEL-3 | CW | 2.39 | ||
| AMERICAN IDOL-WEDNESDAY | FOX | 3.26 | ||
| AMERICAN IDOL-TUESDAY | FOX | 3.44 |
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*Except for Fox. Because American Idol skews their season 18-49 averages so dramatically, yet has no effect on those averages for the fall I used their 18-49 STD average as of Jan 13, the week before Idol began. For the ongoing index for this season, I will use Fox’s ongoing STD average until Idol begins in January.
Of course, all of these numbers suffer from the fact that there was a writer’s strike last season, but I can only use the numbers that are available.
Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
Oh come on Bill, you know that cancellations have nothing to do with ratings. Networks cancel shows because they hate their viewers.
haha Holly, you have no proof that is true other than with Nina Tassler at CBS.
(note to Ms. Tassler: I'm KIDDING!)
it probably should be noted with a show like Bionic Woman, that it's success was largely front-loaded and its ratings waned dramatically. so even though in total it had better than 92% threshold, it was on a trajectory to get there with only a few more airings.
Robert, I agree.
Since we're starting early, we can also watch week to week trends of the index and add that to our data for conclusions. Something that's impossible with an end of season list like this.
Here come the Newylweds wasn't canceled…. As a matter of fact, ABC just renewed it for a second season yesterday
Bill didn't have the THR Live feed, Zap2It and other TV news chip installed directly in his brain as I did. I think he chose the wiser-path ; )
Chmarin, thanks, it's fixed. That was an error from May that I failed to correct in the original list.
Quick question: Was this done with the season averages the Neilsen's releases (which include in-slot repeats) or just using original episodes?
I didn't know Desperate Hosewives was the #1 scripted show on TV (hell yeah!)
Holly, it was using the Nielsen STD numbers which *do* include in-slot repeats.
They are the only STD numbers that we see.
wopa, DH is likely one of the most valuable shows on TV from a revenue perspective.
Slight modification to Bill's disclaimer: includes any in-slot repeats or in-slot original episodes which were *not* designated as “special” which exempts from counting in the S-T-D averages. All things considered, this ability to “game” the Nielsen numbers isn't abused very much.
I think you can scratch-out the word “likely” above…
What do you mean by “cheap” regarding Til Death? Is it really much cheaper than other canceled sitcoms like Aliens in America or Unhitched?
Thanks Bill and Robert. I was just curious. It doesn't make much difference for the renew/cancel index (unless one show has a lot more reruns than any other on the network), but is does skew the total numbers for shows that show reruns vs those that don't (e.g. CSI vs. Lost).
Holy, I completely agree. DH for example is very skewed compared to Two and a Half Men due to many of its reruns happening out of slot.
Robert, we have no real data on the costs for shows, mostly TV industry rumors, but the story was at the end of the season Fox kept 'Til Death Back to You because of it's lower cost. It was specifically compared to Back to You which had very similar ratings (see above) but because of Kelsey Grammar and Patricia Heaton's salaries was said to be much more expensive. Again, it was all part of the rumor mill.
“And since every post we do about renewal or cancellation ends up becoming a post about Moonlight”
So what does that tell you? That maybe, JUST MAYBE, the Neilsen system isn't as accurate as it likes to think it is *shocking*.
Variables such as what night it was on, what time, strikes, all should play a part in how ratings are calculated rather than flat numbers across the board from a select “chosen few”. If you look back at the top 20 shows on CBS through May 08, Moonlight was there consistently at between 7,500 and 8,000. Trust me, the demo range was 18-49 as well, I'm one of those “extreme emotionally upset …folks” you refer to and I'm 33.
Of course there's more to it than just this index. Both Bill and Robert have already stated that. Things like night, which is why Numb3rs and Ghost Whisperer are still around. Cost and profit make a difference too, which is how 60 Minutes will get renewed for another 50 years and reality shows with low ratings get picked up again. Downward trends make a difference, as seen with Bionic Woman. There are lots of factors, but none of them mean that Moonlight merited a second season.
kcferret, the ratings are just statistical calculations done by Nielsen from their available data. Are they perfect? No. Are they the currently accepted standard for evaluating the audience for a TV show and therefore its revenue potential. Yes.
As for all the variables you speak about, I'm sure they were part of the factors considered by CBS programming management in evaluating whether to renew or cancel Moonlight.
Well, if I'm reading that right, then “Journeyman” was right on the bubble. Sad that “Lipstick Jungle” didn't do THAT much better, and it got renewed. Could I assume that production costs also played a role?
Mike G., cost definitely plays a factor and we can do little but guess about it most of the time. Also, the networks have *far* more data than we do on which to base their decisions. My simple calculation worked out pretty well for backwards prediction purposes, but I have no illusion that the decision for the networks for those shows “on the bubble” is far from simple.
Journeyman is another one of those shows where the season average can be deceiving. It started out with 9 million and a 3.5 in the demo, but ended with 5 million and a 1.5. Lipstick Jungle, on the other hand, started with 6 million and a 2.5 and stayed pretty steady. Also, you could argue that viewers just didn't find LJ because it aired during the strike when everything was on reruns and viewing was down on all the networks, so it has a chance to grow in the second season. You can't make the same argument for Journeyman.
Robert,
Just asking a question here and maybe I missed something — you are then assuming that 'Swingtown' is done and will not reappear in any form, or is it because it is impossible for it to appear on the fall schedule? Just trying to understand why Swingtown is not on this list as a potential renewal candidate for the upcoming season in some form? Are you privy to some type of official information as to its future? Just would like to know if you have it officially or you're just making assumptions.
Bill's list was an example from the Fall shows list we compiled to explain the methodology of the cancellation index. Wipeout isn't on it, nor is America's Got Talent — it was an old list that didn't include all summer shows.
You'd need a whole separate list for summer shows since the network averages and expectations would be lower.
Holly. I would be willing to give LJ the benefit of the doubt because it didn't run for as many episodes as JM, but I'm not sure that I would buy the argument that viewers didn't find it. It ran in ER”s time slot, and NBC did a much better job of promoting it than they did with JM. If JM had been promoted better, I think it might have gotten some viewers back, especially since the folks who hung in there with the show seem to agree that it was getting better. Honestly, LJ's numbers don't strike me as being great, so I'm going to guess that LJ will fall to the ax this year.
LJ's numbers weren't great, even for being aired during the strike. I was just giving reasons why LJ might have survived despite mediocre ratings.
Network average STD 19-49? Sexually Transmitted Disease? Ick!
Guess Who, it is precisely for this reason that I always designate season-to-date as S-T-D. Bill is such an upstanding person that the thought that anyone would think STD when they see STD doesn’t cross his mind. But this is only so because he’s such a good man.
When you set up the new charts, are you going to have the network averages reflect when each network started their season or from a set point for all the networks?
Holly, the “season” starts on September 22 for everybody because thats when Nielsen wipes the slate clean and starts with the new Season to Date averages.
Still, that should not be a problem, the analysis above was done with last seasons numbers and many shows started early and those episodes were “left off” of the 2007-8 season to date averages as well.
You have got to be impressed with Desperate Housewives ratings last season. A show that had been written off after season 3 returned to form and became the number 1 scripted show on TV. That’s what you call impressive! One would argue however if Greys was still at 10pm Sundays, it would be pulling in over 20 million viewers on a routine basis. I, as a Brothers&Sisters fan however, ain’t complaining because we all know It’s Desperate HW lead in keeps it strong ratings wise!
Can you go back over the last 5-10 years? Is .92 always the magic number or does it vary. How about past shows with strong loyal followings e.g., Firefly, Arrested Development, Family Guy (1st time), that got cancelled.
We don’t have the data to go way back, but I would if I could, just to see the differences.
Bring back the BIONIC WOMAN !!
The reason I hate when shows like Moonlight, Jericho, or Pushing Daisies get cancelled is because they leave Season Finale cliff hangers which are to lead up to an alleged next season and then get cancelled so we never find out what happened! It sucks in that regard, but I’m not a nutcase about TV or anything. Does anyone remember the TV show John Doe? I loved that show!! It had the brother from Prison Break in it. It was so good and they cancelled it after 1 season! Bla…
CANE , K-Ville , Friday Night Light ,LAS VEGAS good show that now I cannot see but trash of show still on AMERICA’S TOP MODEL-4 , AMERICAN IDOL , AMERICAN GLADIATORS
that was really interesting, thanks for posting it!