Comments on: The Renew/Cancel Index, Our Predictor Of Show Futures

By: maahem

maahem — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 02:42:57 +0000

that was really interesting, thanks for posting it!

By: Tony C

Tony C — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 01:41:12 +0000

CANE , K-Ville , Friday Night Light ,LAS VEGAS good show that now I cannot see but trash of show still on AMERICA’S TOP MODEL-4 , AMERICAN IDOL , AMERICAN GLADIATORS

By: Rhino

Rhino — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:55:08 +0000

The reason I hate when shows like Moonlight, Jericho, or Pushing Daisies get cancelled is because they leave Season Finale cliff hangers which are to lead up to an alleged next season and then get cancelled so we never find out what happened! It sucks in that regard, but I’m not a nutcase about TV or anything. Does anyone remember the TV show John Doe? I loved that show!! It had the brother from Prison Break in it. It was so good and they cancelled it after 1 season! Bla…

By: Tommy

Tommy — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 20:46:15 +0000

Bring back the BIONIC WOMAN !!

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 14:41:49 +0000

We don’t have the data to go way back, but I would if I could, just to see the differences.

By: Craig

Craig — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 12:39:59 +0000

Can you go back over the last 5-10 years? Is .92 always the magic number or does it vary. How about past shows with strong loyal followings e.g., Firefly, Arrested Development, Family Guy (1st time), that got cancelled.

By: sean

sean — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 17:50:40 +0000

You have got to be impressed with Desperate Housewives ratings last season. A show that had been written off after season 3 returned to form and became the number 1 scripted show on TV. That’s what you call impressive! One would argue however if Greys was still at 10pm Sundays, it would be pulling in over 20 million viewers on a routine basis. I, as a Brothers&Sisters fan however, ain’t complaining because we all know It’s Desperate HW lead in keeps it strong ratings wise!

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 23:36:30 +0000

Holly, the “season” starts on September 22 for everybody because thats when Nielsen wipes the slate clean and starts with the new Season to Date averages.

Still, that should not be a problem, the analysis above was done with last seasons numbers and many shows started early and those episodes were “left off” of the 2007-8 season to date averages as well.

By: Holly

Holly — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 21:37:47 +0000

When you set up the new charts, are you going to have the network averages reflect when each network started their season or from a set point for all the networks?

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:01:13 +0000

Guess Who, it is precisely for this reason that I always designate season-to-date as S-T-D. Bill is such an upstanding person that the thought that anyone would think STD when they see STD doesn’t cross his mind. But this is only so because he’s such a good man.

By: Guess Who

Guess Who — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:41:11 +0000

Network average STD 19-49? Sexually Transmitted Disease? Ick!

By: Holly

Holly — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 04:07:55 +0000

LJ's numbers weren't great, even for being aired during the strike. I was just giving reasons why LJ might have survived despite mediocre ratings.

By: Mike G.

Mike G. — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 02:25:30 +0000

Holly. I would be willing to give LJ the benefit of the doubt because it didn't run for as many episodes as JM, but I'm not sure that I would buy the argument that viewers didn't find it. It ran in ER”s time slot, and NBC did a much better job of promoting it than they did with JM. If JM had been promoted better, I think it might have gotten some viewers back, especially since the folks who hung in there with the show seem to agree that it was getting better. Honestly, LJ's numbers don't strike me as being great, so I'm going to guess that LJ will fall to the ax this year.

By: Holly

Holly — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 17:16:06 +0000

You'd need a whole separate list for summer shows since the network averages and expectations would be lower.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 16:57:09 +0000

Bill's list was an example from the Fall shows list we compiled to explain the methodology of the cancellation index. Wipeout isn't on it, nor is America's Got Talent — it was an old list that didn't include all summer shows.

By: xerxes

xerxes — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 16:30:24 +0000

Robert,
Just asking a question here and maybe I missed something — you are then assuming that 'Swingtown' is done and will not reappear in any form, or is it because it is impossible for it to appear on the fall schedule? Just trying to understand why Swingtown is not on this list as a potential renewal candidate for the upcoming season in some form? Are you privy to some type of official information as to its future? Just would like to know if you have it officially or you're just making assumptions.

By: Holly

Holly — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 03:28:09 +0000

Journeyman is another one of those shows where the season average can be deceiving. It started out with 9 million and a 3.5 in the demo, but ended with 5 million and a 1.5. Lipstick Jungle, on the other hand, started with 6 million and a 2.5 and stayed pretty steady. Also, you could argue that viewers just didn't find LJ because it aired during the strike when everything was on reruns and viewing was down on all the networks, so it has a chance to grow in the second season. You can't make the same argument for Journeyman.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 21:01:58 +0000

Mike G., cost definitely plays a factor and we can do little but guess about it most of the time. Also, the networks have *far* more data than we do on which to base their decisions. My simple calculation worked out pretty well for backwards prediction purposes, but I have no illusion that the decision for the networks for those shows “on the bubble” is far from simple.

By: Mike G.

Mike G. — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 20:48:35 +0000

Well, if I'm reading that right, then “Journeyman” was right on the bubble. Sad that “Lipstick Jungle” didn't do THAT much better, and it got renewed. Could I assume that production costs also played a role?

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 04:28:12 +0000

kcferret, the ratings are just statistical calculations done by Nielsen from their available data. Are they perfect? No. Are they the currently accepted standard for evaluating the audience for a TV show and therefore its revenue potential. Yes.

As for all the variables you speak about, I'm sure they were part of the factors considered by CBS programming management in evaluating whether to renew or cancel Moonlight.

By: Holly

Holly — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 03:59:06 +0000

Of course there's more to it than just this index. Both Bill and Robert have already stated that. Things like night, which is why Numb3rs and Ghost Whisperer are still around. Cost and profit make a difference too, which is how 60 Minutes will get renewed for another 50 years and reality shows with low ratings get picked up again. Downward trends make a difference, as seen with Bionic Woman. There are lots of factors, but none of them mean that Moonlight merited a second season.

By: kcferret

kcferret — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 03:29:11 +0000

“And since every post we do about renewal or cancellation ends up becoming a post about Moonlight”

So what does that tell you? That maybe, JUST MAYBE, the Neilsen system isn't as accurate as it likes to think it is *shocking*.

Variables such as what night it was on, what time, strikes, all should play a part in how ratings are calculated rather than flat numbers across the board from a select “chosen few”. If you look back at the top 20 shows on CBS through May 08, Moonlight was there consistently at between 7,500 and 8,000. Trust me, the demo range was 18-49 as well, I'm one of those “extreme emotionally upset …folks” you refer to and I'm 33.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 21:22:36 +0000

Robert, we have no real data on the costs for shows, mostly TV industry rumors, but the story was at the end of the season Fox kept 'Til Death Back to You because of it's lower cost. It was specifically compared to Back to You which had very similar ratings (see above) but because of Kelsey Grammar and Patricia Heaton's salaries was said to be much more expensive. Again, it was all part of the rumor mill.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 21:12:10 +0000

Holy, I completely agree. DH for example is very skewed compared to Two and a Half Men due to many of its reruns happening out of slot.

By: Holly

Holly — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 21:08:39 +0000

Thanks Bill and Robert. I was just curious. It doesn't make much difference for the renew/cancel index (unless one show has a lot more reruns than any other on the network), but is does skew the total numbers for shows that show reruns vs those that don't (e.g. CSI vs. Lost).