Comments on: Monday Night Success for CW Among 18-34 Women, “HUGE”

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 19:52:11 +0000

Actually, let me amend that last comment. I just looked at this past’s weeks results for the CW vs. their results from the comparable week last season and they were much higher.

CW results week of
9/8/08: 910,000 average 18-34 viewers
9/10/07: 510,000 average 18-34 viewers

So their early start this year did much better than their early start last year!

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 19:44:50 +0000

Julia, the CW started this season “early” and those results will be averaged into 2007-8, but they also started *last* season early and those results were averaged into 2006-7.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 19:31:25 +0000

well if the season-to-date totals were really all that paramount in CW’s ad sales strategy, it would definitely be a problem but as far as the CW goes, I think that’s probably the least of its worries!

I’m guessing they’d rather have started early even if it doesn’t count in next season’s averages and attempt to build more of a base for the shows which at least in the case of Gossip Girl, seems to have worked. The question is how it does next week though.

By: Julia

Julia — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 19:22:34 +0000

So what CW is considering the 2008-2009 season is actually just boosting the 2007-2008 numbers, which will probably decrease any gains they end up showing.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 19:15:39 +0000

they count in the current year’s S-T-D results but won’t count in the new season, which begins next week. It’s a wacky system.

By: Julia

Julia — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 19:02:38 +0000

Speaking of which, I’ve been meaning to ask, since the season hasn’t actually begun, do these ratings even really count? I mean, obviously CW is going to boast about them, but they won’t count in S-T-D comparisons, will they?

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 18:54:53 +0000

Even if GG and OTH keep 80% of these levels, The CW can’t survive if only a few of its shows do well and all we’ve seen so far are its top shows against very limited competition. Once they have all their shows out vs. everybody else’s their averages are going to drop way down.

Although, incredibly, the CW averaged only a 1.0 rating for the 18-34 demo from 9/24/07-5/21/08 (including in-slot reruns). So if they can’t look positive in year/year comparisons I’ll be surprised.

But even a 50% increase from last years 18-34 level only gets them to a 1.5 and CBS had an 18-34 demo rating of 1.9 for the same period last season.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 18:37:20 +0000

Julia, without speaking to actually profitability at all, my guess is that if the CW can retain ~80% of these numbers once there’s full competition, it’s enough for the partners to give them a longer leash and stick with it a while longer. But I think they’d need to do so Mon, Tue and Weds (Thursday is a throwaway, and I am not optimistic for post-Smackdown Fridays).

By: Julia

Julia — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 18:24:51 +0000

Yes, I should have mentioned that I think this is about as high as CW can go at this point, but if it were able to sustain this, would it be enough. That was really my question. With this being the absolute threshold, does it have a shot?

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 18:06:36 +0000

Julia, since we thrive on instant analysis I am reluctant to say this, but all of these results to date are in an artificial “low competition” environment.

None of these results really matter until everybody’s got their first string in the game and that’s still a few weeks away.

Of course for shows with *bad* results, more competition isn’t likely to improve the situation

By: Julia

Julia — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 17:56:45 +0000

So what do you guys think about this apart from “growth is growth”?

Personally, I am a bit impressed in spite of myself. While there is the point that this is still quite dismal for what is probably going to be CW’s top rated show this week, I wonder if these demos really are enough to sustain the network. I mean, say they were able to get around a 4 rating in women 18-34 3 out of 5 nights a week. Is there any way to know if that would be good enough to keep the network afloat for another two or three years?