Since the mid 80’s broadcast networks share of the prime-time audience has plunged from 85% to less than 50% as audiences shifted to cable.
Here’s a look at the change in average prime-time broadcast TV viewing households during an even longer period. The fall since the early 80’s is pronounced.
During the 2007-8 season the top 6 broadcast networks lost on average more than 8% of their viewers from the year before. Adult demo viewer losses were even more substantial, for the CW potentially catastrophic.
I expect overall prime-time broadcast viewership to decline 1-2% in the 2008-9 season. Prior to last year’s 8% decline, the annual declines in broadcast prime-time viewership were typically 1-2% beginning in the early 80’s. I think that continues. I don’t think the industry will recover to its 2006-7 levels (which would produce a gain compared to last season) and then begin to decline.
I think a new “beginning” level was set by last season’s results. I think cable’s share gains will accelerate as they attack broadcast more directly during their traditional season. I think the shift to digital TV broadcasts in February will be a small contributor to that as well.
However, if declines occur as I predict, expect the industry press to blame them on the disruption in the development process or fall scheduling caused by the strike. I think that’s just head in the sand wishful thinking. The continuing shift from broadcast to cable is the elephant in the room that few in the television media want to acknowledge.
Of course the strike by the WGA writers substantially disrupted the season and provided and obvious, easy (and likely substantially correct) reason (and cover for the networks) for much of the audience losses.
Many in the industry (I will link the inevitable stories as they appear) expect the broadcast television audience to bounce back from the strike this season, and, breaking the trends of the last generation, show viewership gains this season. I do not.
September 21st, 2008 at 4:54 pm
Very nice chart.
One question, and this is something that has frustrated me for a very long time, just how many ad-supported/basic cable channels are included in that huge swath of cable that has steadily grown over the past two decades? Just how many cable channels does it take to equal the twelve broadcast networks (realistically, TF, AZA, PAX and MNT add next to nothing to the total). Whenever the cable industry crows about how much it is beating broadcast, I wonder what the rest of the story is.
Anyway, as much as I would personally like to see broadcast regain some ground this season, I have to agree that it is highly unlikely that the networks will see an increase in their average share of the audience.
September 21st, 2008 at 5:15 pm
Doghouse, the only detail about which networks Nielsen included in each category was better formatted in the original post here, but here’s the information.
Network Affiliates:
1984-90: ABC, CBS, NBC affiliates
1991-1999: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX Affiliates
1999-December 25, 2005: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, PAX affiliates
December 26, 2005-January 29 2006: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, UNI, PAX affiliates
January 30, 2006-February 26, 2006: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, UNI, TEL, PAX affiliates
February 27, 2006-August 27, 2006: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, UNI, TEL, TF, PAX affiliates
August 28, 2006 – September 3, 2006 : ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, UNI, TEL, TF, AZA, PAX affiliates
September 4, 2006 – Present : ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, UNI, TEL, TF, AZA, PAX, MNT affiliates
Independent:
1984-90: Commercial independent stations including FOX affiliates and TBS
1991-99: Commericial independent stations including WB, UPN affiiliates and superstations except forTBS.
1999-present: Commercial independent stations including Telemundo and Univision affiliates. Excludes TBS
Public: PBS affiliates
Ad Supported/Basic Cable:
1999-present: Viewing to advertiser supported cable networks. Includes TBS and WGN cable.
1984-99: Tuning to basic cable including Pay-Per-View
1991-1999: Tuning to basic cable including TBS and Pay-Per-View.
Premium/Pay Cable:
1999-present: Viewing to premium pay cable services.
1984-99: Cable Subscribers receiving at least one premium channel. This does not include Pay-Per-View.
All Other Cable:
1999-present: tuning to cable networks that are neither ad-supported nor premium pay, includes pay-per-view, interactive channels, home shopping channels, and audio only feeds.
*Effective 1991, FOX and TBS changed from Independents to Network Affiliates and Basic Cable Respectively.
**Combination of Live data and Live+7 data.
***Live+7 data
All years prior to 2005-6 are Live Data.
September 21st, 2008 at 5:18 pm
To add some data: we regularly post the top 20-30 weekly cable networks here:
http://tvbythenumbers.com/category/nielsen-weekly-network-tv-ratings/top-cable-networks
And the big four broadcast networks plus CW and Univision here:
http://tvbythenumbers.com/category/nielsen-weekly-network-tv-ratings/top-cable-networks
for the most recent week we have data for it took about the whole top 20 cable networks in primetime to reach the same average primetime viewership as the combined ABC, CBS, Fox, NBC, CW and Univision.
September 23rd, 2008 at 11:27 pm
I wonder when other outlets will start recognizing this trend when it comes to reporting the Nielsen ratings. There are just too many cable options to expect shows to draw 20 million viewers outside of the current ‘buzz’ shows. Couple that with quick turn around on DVD season sets and DVR delayed viewing a show that only averages 8 to 10 million viewers a week isn’t as big of a flop as it would have been a decade ago.
If Lost, Heroes, 24, and House would have been on in the landscape of television in the late 80’s or early 90’s they probably would have been doing double the viewers they are right now. Comedies like The Office, How I Met Your Mother, and Scrubs would probably have been competitive with the likes of Fraiser or Cheers.