The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, to see the latest list, click here.
Our Renew/Cancel Index finds that Boston Legal (Edit: Alert commenter Jason reminds me that this was already slated to be BL’s final season, good thing!) and ‘Til Death are the scripted shows most likely to be cancelled in the new 2008-9 broadcast television season. In fact, Fox’s Do Not Disturb was the most likely to be cancelled, but Fox beat us to it and already cancelled the show. The other scripted shows in significant danger of being cancelled are The New Adventures of Old Christine, Lipstick Jungle, Knight Rider, Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles, Gary Unmarried, and My Name is Earl.
How did we come up with our list? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger. We’re not sure what the magic number will be this season, but I’m very confident that our index will still indicate the shows most likely to be cancelled compared to those less likely to be cancelled.
Of course there are special circumstances, and this is only one week’s worth of network average data (although the show average data does include 2008-9 season airings prior to September 22), so I would expect substantial fluctuations in this list early in the season. I’m confident that the shows at the top of the list come the end of the season are likely to be cancelled as I am that the shows at the bottom of the list are likely to be renewed.
The current shows most likely to be renewed are: Grey’s Anatomy, Desperate Housewives, House, Two and A Half men, CSI: Miami, 90210, Criminal Minds, Heroes, Simpsons, and Family Guy.
Note: Only shows that have premiered during the 2008-9 broadcast season are on this list.
Without further ado, here’s the first Renew/Cancel Index list of scripted shows ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled:
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index |
| CANCELLATION LIKELY | ||||
| DO NOT DISTURB (cancelled) | FOX | 2,097 | 3,960 | 0.53 |
| BOSTON LEGAL (final season) | ABC | 3,108 | 5,030 | 0.62 |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,454 | 3,960 | 0.62 |
| NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2,781 | 4,060 | 0.68 |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 3,146 | 4,400 | 0.72 |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 3,271 | 4,400 | 0.74 |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,954 | 3,960 | 0.75 |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,146 | 4,060 | 0.77 |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,569 | 4,400 | 0.81 |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,388 | 1,660 | 0.84 |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,332 | 3,960 | 0.84 |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,444 | 4,060 | 0.85 |
| CANCELLATION POSSIBLE | ||||
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,527 | 4,060 | 0.87 |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 4,388 | 5,030 | 0.87 |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,631 | 4,060 | 0.89 |
| CANCELLATION UNLIKELY | ||||
| E.R. (final season) | NBC | 4,314 | 4,400 | 0.98 |
| BONES | FOX | 4,190 | 3,960 | 1.06 |
| AMERICAN DAD | FOX | 4,286 | 3,960 | 1.08 |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,431 | 3,960 | 1.12 |
| LAW AND ORDER:SVU | NBC | 4,993 | 4,400 | 1.13 |
| THE MENTALIST | CBS | 4,663 | 4,060 | 1.15 |
| THE BIG BANG THEORY | CBS | 4,690 | 4,060 | 1.16 |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,727 | 4,060 | 1.16 |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,984 | 1,660 | 1.20 |
| BROTHERS & SISTERS | ABC | 6,061 | 5,030 | 1.20 |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,966 | 4,060 | 1.22 |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 5,233 | 4,060 | 1.29 |
| ONE TREE HILL | CW | 2,183 | 1,660 | 1.32 |
| HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER | CBS | 5,342 | 4,060 | 1.32 |
| FRINGE | FOX | 5,248 | 3,960 | 1.33 |
| GOSSIP GIRL | CW | 2,271 | 1,660 | 1.37 |
| SMALLVILLE | CW | 2,350 | 1,660 | 1.42 |
| OFFICE | NBC | 6,479 | 4,400 | 1.47 |
| FAMILY GUY | FOX | 5,891 | 3,960 | 1.49 |
| SIMPSONS | FOX | 5,926 | 3,960 | 1.50 |
| HEROES | NBC | 6,619 | 4,400 | 1.50 |
| CRIMINAL MINDS | CBS | 6,228 | 4,060 | 1.53 |
| 90210 | CW | 2,681 | 1,660 | 1.62 |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 6,874 | 4,060 | 1.69 |
| TWO AND A HALF MEN | CBS | 6,998 | 4,060 | 1.72 |
| HOUSE | FOX | 7,056 | 3,960 | 1.78 |
| DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES | ABC | 9,358 | 5,030 | 1.86 |
| GREY’S ANATOMY | ABC | 9,760 | 5,030 | 1.94 |
—————————————————————-
For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However, it’s likely that America’s Toughest Jobs and Opportunity Knocks are in significant danger of being cancelled or not returning when their run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index |
| AMERICA’S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,477 | 4,400 | 0.34 |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 2,028 | 5,030 | 0.40 |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,040 | 5,030 | 0.41 |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,433 | 5,030 | 0.48 |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 2,065 | 3,960 | 0.52 |
| COPS | FOX | 2,108 | 3,960 | 0.53 |
| DON’T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 2,118 | 3,960 | 0.53 |
| 48 HOURS MYSTERY | CBS | 2,345 | 4,060 | 0.58 |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,305 | 3,960 | 0.58 |
| EXTREME MAKEOVER:HM ED-7P | ABC | 2,951 | 5,030 | 0.59 |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,492 | 3,960 | 0.63 |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,515 | 3,960 | 0.64 |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,233 | 5,030 | 0.64 |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,997 | 4,400 | 0.68 |
| 60 MINUTES | CBS | 2,908 | 4,060 | 0.72 |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P | FOX | 3,217 | 3,960 | 0.81 |
| KITCHEN NIGHTMARES | FOX | 3,309 | 3,960 | 0.84 |
| BIGGEST LOSER 6 | NBC | 4,093 | 4,400 | 0.93 |
| EXTREME MAKEOVER:HM ED-8P | ABC | 4,932 | 5,030 | 0.98 |
| AMAZING RACE 13 | CBS | 4,241 | 4,060 | 1.04 |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 5,273 | 4,400 | 1.20 |
| DANCING WITH THE STARS | ABC | 7,052 | 5,030 | 1.40 |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,900 | 4,060 | 1.45 |
| THE OT | FOX | 5,790 | 3,960 | 1.46 |
| AMERICA’S TOP MODEL-5 | CW | 2,544 | 1,660 | 1.53 |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 6,842 | 4,400 | 1.56 |
| CBS NFL NATL POST GUN | CBS | 7,443 | 4,060 | 1.83 |
| NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL | NBC | 10,032 | 4,400 | 2.28 |
September 30th, 2008 at 10:40 am
We already knew that this was going to be the final season of Boston Legal. ABC renewed it for 13 episodes and confirmed that was it back in the spring.
See this Zap2it story from May 13:
http://www.zap2it.com/tv/news/zap-bostonlegalfinalseason,0,7596840.story
September 30th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Jason, you’re right of course and we knew that. Bill perhaps should’ve disclaimed this. How happy ABC is with DEK after the Life on Mars situation I’m not sure, but barring that it seems very unlikely to me that ABC wouldn’t let it finish it’s planned run.
September 30th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Jason, correct you are. I have edited the post!
September 30th, 2008 at 10:48 am
I wouldn’t be confident of Old Christine. CBS will give the Wednesday comedy block a fair shake I think, and in the event that it doesn’t work out, CBS would have a Christine vs. Worst Week decisions when it comes to Mondays at 9:30p
September 30th, 2008 at 10:51 am
That is why I added the disclaimer “Of course there are special circumstances, and this is only one week’s worth of network average data…so I would expect substantial fluctuations in this list early in the season.”
September 30th, 2008 at 11:39 am
whats the ideal index?
September 30th, 2008 at 11:42 am
sam, higher index numbers are good, lower index numbers are bad, but there isn’t really an “ideal”.
I will be adding more explanatory text later, but the site is under significant load now and editing the posts has become difficult.
September 30th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Hi Bill, was wondering where you were…
Why did you reverse the index? It’s easier to read with the higher demo shows at the top.
September 30th, 2008 at 11:53 am
We haven’t proved successful at load-balancing our site’s traffic, but we are better at load-balancing the workload. I’m taking the overnight posts this week because I will be taking off for a week starting Sunday while I move residences.
As for sorting, I vote for keeping it how he has it here. I believe the most likely shows to be cancelled should be at the top. Of course when it comes to this list, only Bill’s vote matters!
September 30th, 2008 at 11:55 am
Andrea, I wanted to highlight the shows most likely to be cancelled rather than the shows most likely *not* to be cancelled, but I’m still experimenting and we’ll see how things proceed.
September 30th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
This is a really clever and accurate way to measure this stuff.
I’m surprised “My Name is Earl” is doing so poorly.
September 30th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
So, what about a show that does very well with overall viewers, but has a low demo? I’m thinking about Without a Trace specifically. That seems a long shot to be canceled.
September 30th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Mike, although in many ways this Index is all about jumping the gun, nothing is certain with data this early in the season.
However, last season, except in a few instances, life and death for TV shows was correlated very strongly with their 18-49 performance relative to their network’s 18-49 performance.
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/08/27/the-renewcancel-index-our-predictor-of-show-futures/4800
September 30th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
” CBS would have a Christine vs. Worst Week decisions when it comes to Mondays at 9:30p”
and they have Rules of Engagement to fit somewhere too
September 30th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
I agree with ‘Til Death. It’s a little surprising that FOX had renewed it for a third season when they canceled other comedies after one year such as Back To You
September 30th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Thanks for the list!
September 30th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
I’m really upset with the Old Christine facts. The fact of the matter is that CBS took a huge gamble making it lead off a new comedy block against such strong competition. I hope CBS will realize that and let the show run for a full season first before making their final decision. I mean, they shouldn’t fall in love with Worst Week yet… whatever follows Two and a Half Men is going to get the good ratings… take Worst Week away from it and it would probably only pull 6 million or less also.
I just hope they give Old Christine the time of day. It is a fantastic show that is completely under appreciated.
As for Til Death… I watch it and enjoy it, but I’m not surprised. The ratings are pretty dismal!
October 1st, 2008 at 8:33 am
ugh this is unfortunate, Terminator: SCC is a pretty good show. Maybe I should start watching the network broadcast instead of downloading it after the fact…
October 1st, 2008 at 11:51 am
Where does Chuck fit in all of this?
October 1st, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Chuck had not yet aired for the most recent week we have full final numbers for, so check back next week.
October 1st, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Terminator fan,
Unless you are a Neilsen family, it won’t matter whether you watch it on TV. If you are downloading the show legally or watching it streaming on a legal site like nbc.com or hulu.com, you are measurably supporting the show (even if a lot fewer people watch online). If you are downloading illegally…well, you’re giving them a reason to keep paying the legal department.
October 2nd, 2008 at 5:46 am
Really, My Name is Earl is in trouble? I don’t think NBC will be cancelling this anytime soon and this is why. Earl is an important stable in NBCs Comedy night done right block and in terms of comedies they would only have The Office, which does perform better, 30 Rock which doesnt do that great in the ratings, and Kath & Kim which hasnt premiered yet. I highly doubt Earl is in trouble. However I bet if Old Christine gets axed ABC will pick it up and Terminator will be axed as well but will air all 13 episodes by december.
October 2nd, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Bob…er I mean Bill
, how often with this index be updated?
October 2nd, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Andrea, weekly. Likely Tuesday PM Pacific time, but I put it in our scheduled list on Wednesday to give myself some slack
October 2nd, 2008 at 1:54 pm
I have a question…Isn’t the “Crimetime Saturday” on CBS reruns of the crime shows, not new non-scripted shows?
October 2nd, 2008 at 2:02 pm
Doh! Indeed they are. Indicates how much I watch CBS on Saturdays. If ever.
October 2nd, 2008 at 10:52 pm
Where’s 30 Rock on your list? Not likely to be cancelled, but neither is Grey’s Anatomy, and that is there. And if My Name is Earl is blocked with 30 Rock and The Office, it should be OK.
October 3rd, 2008 at 12:36 am
30 Rock’s season premiere is October 30. Only shows that have aired in the 2008-9 season are on the list.
As for Grey’s Anatomy, its at the bottom of the list. It’s the *least* likely to be cancelled.
October 5th, 2008 at 10:27 am
Uhm I think you made a mistake, Terminator: TSCC is on the wrong list. For sure!
October 5th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
WHERE IS CSI LAS VEGAS?
October 5th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Prison Break will not be canceled before the 22 episodes this season…I`m sure of that. Sure it is the last season but no mid season cancellation. They`ll probably try it back at 8. SCC is going for sure
October 5th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
kirby, This list is based on the numbers from the first week of the season. CSI Vegas isn’t on it because it hasn’t premiered yet.
October 5th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
Holly beat me to it. I have put a disclaimer into the post now.
October 6th, 2008 at 10:08 am
Bill. I’ve seen the ratings for Private Practice for the SP and it wasn’t good at all after all that promotion ABC put into. It started strong last season, but dropped a lot before the strike. How is that show doing?
October 6th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Paula, the Private Practice premiere was last Wednesday, so its not in the list above. It will be in this weeks Index though. Likely posted late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
ABC premiered lots of shows last week, and things could shift around a bit, so its hard to tell where PP will be till I get the numbers.
October 6th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
Til’ Death…despite highly low ratings, it still gets renewed every single year since it premiered. Hopefully this will finally be the last of the zombie sit-com.
October 7th, 2008 at 8:41 am
It would be interesting to see how some of the non-big network original shows do. Like The Starter Wife (can’t remember the network – maybe USA) and Eureka and SG-Atlantis on SciFi. Just for comparison, really – I know those networks have lower viewership, but the non-traditional networks are pumping out some phenomenonally great shows.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:17 am
when are you gonna update this list for hte second week of the season?
October 7th, 2008 at 9:22 am
Later today, likely Eastern time zone evening.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:50 am
Johnthemon — I believe they said it would updated Tuesday evenings, but I could be wrong
Bill, I think this is a terrific experiment, and I hope it works out! If indeed this index proves to be true, then fans of shows on the verge of cancellation can watch it en force and help their friends jump on board, as well.
What would be cool would be to factor in DVD sales of shows that are in their second season or beyond; I don’t know the TV industry intimately, but I imagine that strong DVD sales (such as for Family Guy) help keep shows on the air.
I, too, want to see Sarah Connor Chronicles stay on the air; I just got on board with this show (even though I’m a huge fan of the Terminator mythology, it somehow took me a year to watch this…) and I am impressed with the writing and pacing of it.
If SCC can’t make it through this year on FOX, I think NBC should pick it up and place it before Heroes, giving a Monday night Sci-Fi vibe along the likes of their Thursday night Comedy block.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:57 am
cold case and without a trace might be cancelled??!! oh my god! i’m still in mourning for “moonlight.” cc and w/o a trace can’t die! we need to get rid of the horrible show that dared soil moonlight’s time slot, the ex list. i didn’t see it listed here, but it needs to go. if cbs is so idiotic as to cancel cold case and without a trace, i will never upon NEVER watch watch that horrid network again.
October 7th, 2008 at 11:14 am
I’d love it if they moved Prison Break to 8 or on a different night. Having it go up against Heroes means I have to watch it on Tuesdays on Fox.com. I love both shows, but Heroes means a must watch.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Jonathan, one reason I tried using the data I did for this is that we *get* it. There are lots of other things that could effect the renew/cancel decision, but we have a limited set of data to use.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Thank you for the explanation Bill =)
October 7th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Wondering about what will happen with NBC’s LIFE, starring Damian Lewis. It’s also too good for television. Thanks.
October 7th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
Worst Week should be put on the likely to be cancelled list. Retention out of Two and a Half Men is horrible and its bringing down numbers for CSI: Miami. Again Earl should not be on the Cancellation likely list. If anything would be cancelled between Cold Case and Without a Trace it would be Without a Trace just based on the fact that CBS moved it to the deadly Tuesday night 10pm slot. And Ugly Betty definitely won’t be cancelled this season.
October 9th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
where is dirty sexy money on the lists?
October 9th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
louis, Bill posts a new, updated list each week. This week’s can be found here.
October 9th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Louis, Bill posts a new, updated list each week. If you go to the home page, you can find the latest list in the middle column.
October 9th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
Holly, our spam filter is very sensitive to hypertext links and even though it should allow a single one, sometimes it surprises us!
October 9th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
I figured that’s what happened. No problem.
October 14th, 2008 at 11:24 pm
thanks alot! you are going to cancel every show I look forward to. I’m giving up TV and strickley going to read books.
October 26th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
If they cancel Boston Legal, I will never watch TV again in my life!!!
October 26th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Helen, you’d better get ready to throw out your TV. It’s already been canceled. This is the last season, and a shortened one at that.
November 24th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Yes!! I love Supernatural =)
The best show ever!!!!
December 8th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
I really don’t get it. Of all the truly awful programs on TV, you guys see fit to cancel my very most favorite one…..Boston Legal. It’s a sad night in TV land for my home.
December 12th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
they also need to take in the fact that for over a month brighthouse cable couldnt not air any of Fox networks chanles because fox was really being retarded they wanted money for something we can get off an antenna. I am an advid terminator fan so they might wanna go back and redo the numbers based off the fact that even thugh bright house isnt a huge cable compant and us usally only in rual areas that we do watch some of theses shows.