Comments on: Tuesday Ratings: NCIS Most Watched, But House and Fringe Dominate Demos

By: Foo Man Chu

Foo Man Chu — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 14:35:44 +0000

CBS normally has at least half of the top 20 shows which is the same as the other networks combined. They are doing fairly well. And I suspect they will do even better since FOX, ABC and NBC have been keeping ratings bombs like TSCC, Prison Break, Knight Rider, Friday Night Lights, ect on the air. TSCC is a good show by its ratings stink. The rest I dont watch. Neither, apparently, are most other people. CBS seems to have learned its lesson with the 2 time failure of Jericho – something the other network havent. Which is why it has so many top 20 shows these days.

By: jay

jay — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 14:17:12 +0000

The older end of the 18-49 demo is known for more show loyalty. ER did below 2.5 in the demo and stayed on forever. The 18-25’s are bored it would seem with DH and Grey’s and don’t like Lipstick, Dirty Sexy and PP that much. Why? I’m 50 but I think I have a clue. I’ve watched all the above-mentioned shows and I think for a young demo they fall in a trap: they have to be moralistic and can’t be sarcastic or nihilistic, ie, implying the only values are material values. But they have to be sexy enough to remind older viewers of daytime soaps. From what I’ve seen of popular reality shows and other shows with very young appeal, like South Park, Sarah, the defunct Chappelle, Surreal Life, etc, as well as the popular new comedies, they flirt with what Pynchon called cheap nihilism. I realize this is a subjective categopry and not quantifiable like the Renew or Cancel index, but it is a good rule of thumb for the buzz and eventually the ratings of these shows. By the way, I recommend watching a movie making the rounfds on Showtime now called The TV Set for a bitingly accurate view of what happens to TV pilots between conception and birth on the air.

By: Harry

Harry — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 12:23:37 +0000

For all the negative comments about NCIS here is the logic behind it. And by the way you don’t need to be a scientist to get it, just a bit smart like CBS schedulers

It might get 17 million viewers and only a 3.6 in the 18-49 demo, but come American Idol season, that is the only show that sees no side effects or viewer erosion. Older people tend to stick with it and not switch over to see AI.

Additionally, a great lead in to start the Tuesday line up on CBS is giving the rest of the shows a great lead in.

To be fair I was expecting to see Without a Trace do a lot better due to the huge lead in, but being moved around for the past 3 years running, probably took some of the steam away.

Oh and by the way, for everyone saying NBC shows skew younger, CBS leads the season in 18-49. Now go figure.

By: clutz12001

clutz12001 — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 09:31:14 +0000

Wow, quite a bit of traffic on this post. I am late in surfing this week, but still I will add two cents to Liz, Peter, and the Nielsen doubters. With continued audience fragmentation, as non-broadcast stations develop original programming, there may be increasing pressure from advertisers to provide some comparative metrics along with Nielsen ratings. DirecTV and TNS are already providing set-top box data, DirecTView, to advertisers who are willing to purchase it; Starcom MediaVest was the first major ad conglomerate to sign on to the data. The DirecTView system includes 100,000 DTV subscribers. That’s already a much larger sample than Nielsen uses. The primary issues with DirecTView are (1) still working out how to figure demographics and (2)it only counts DirecTV subscribers. Time will tell if the DirecTView model is worth continuing at other cable/satellite outlets.

I have no evidence at hand to back this up, but I do recall reading that Nielsen’s sample audience is skewed toward non-cable, non-satellite viewers. That could be affecting then numbers. It will be interesting to watch Nielsen ratings “glitches” as the analog-to-digital switch takes place in February 2009.

By: ABCFanatic

ABCFanatic — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 05:38:17 +0000

I think Eli Stone’s number of viewers is fine, its much higher than the 10 episodes from season 1. That is something Pushing Daisies, Private Practice and Dirty Sexy Money failed to achieved this season.

By: Julia

Julia — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 05:07:47 +0000

Thanks for you input, Julia, as well. I had no idea that ABC had a midseason stock of shows piled up. Do you at least think that Eli Stone will get their 13 episode order, though?

I also just read that ABC had ordered four more scripts for Eli Stone. Typically, after how many episodes, does a network decide on whether to give the 22 episode order to a show or not?

By: Julia

Julia — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 03:17:06 +0000

Julia, this is just my personal opinion, but I think ABC has a very nice midseason stock piled and I’m not sure that they wouldn’t be willing to dump all three. At the moment, while Pushing Daisies is definitely in the worst shape, DSM and ES look to be doing about the same in the demo. I think that between the two of them, if ABC absolutely were going to dump one of those two, ABC would be more likely to dump ES, simply because it’s wasting a big lead-in. If you put a new show at 10pm on Wednesdays, it doesn’t have a nice plush lead-in to help find an audience. But stick something after DWTS and there’s a better chance that more people will at least sample it a few times.

By: Julia

Julia — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 02:44:09 +0000

Thanks for the input, Robert and Bill. I appreciate it. So I guess if Eli Stone, Pushing Daisies, and Dirty Sexy Money are all in a similar shape, then what do you guys think ABC will do with them? Would they honestly cancel all three shows after their 13 episode orders? Add that up with Opportunity Knocks, that would be a cancellation of four ABC shows.

Let me put it this way, out of the three above shows, which one show has a higher chance of getting at least a 22 episode season? Personally, I only watch Eli Stone. I haven’t watched Pushing Daisies or Dirty Sexy Money. I just know that the ratings for these shows are lower than the ratings for Eli Stone. I think their demos are also lower than Eli Stone’s demos. I’m guessing that Eli Stone would at least get the 13 episode order, right? Anyway, out of the three shows, which one do you think has a chance to stick around for a full season?

By: cdn

cdn — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 02:21:40 +0000

cesarrr, in terms of total viewers, yes it is. Its demos however are not very impressive, particularly in the 18-34 category. Fringe is faring much better in both demos, although it could be argued that House is probably doing it a huge favor. It will be interesting to see if Fringe can hold on to these demos if either it or House gets moved. Its retention does appear to be slipping.

By: R.J

R.J — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 01:00:02 +0000

9.l1 million viewers for fringe. That’s sad when HOUSE is geting Almost 12 million. It goes down almost 4 million viewers. Does anyone know why a good show like that is geting low ratings?

By: cesarrr

cesarrr — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 00:54:24 +0000

it looks like THE MENTALIST is this season’s hottest new show.

By: Lucyfan

Lucyfan — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 00:09:03 +0000

Does anyone else agree that both Privileged and 90210 would benefit by switching their time slots? Primetime broadcast television has traditionally put the “lighter faire” in the 8:00 slot, with the more serious drama at 9:00 – these two shows are flipped arpound. Most 90201 viewers are not going to sit around for a less serious drama later at night. On the other hand, after watching Privileged, you might stay up later for the greater dramatic intensity of 90210. This has never made sense to me, and Privileged is getting burned by this misplacement by CW. Despite the commercial insignificance, the DVR+7 percentages do show strong viewer loyalty for 90210 and privileged, and this eventually leads to better ratings, and thus greater live “commercial” viewing. I simply don’t believe that networks and advertisers are too short sighted to realize this.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 23:50:49 +0000

Julia, I’m not as optimistic as Bill. With the above numbers, coupled with last week’s numbers, without improvement, particularly in the demos I give it only a 49% chance of getting its full 22 show run.

Private Practice is getting the full season run because it performs much better in the 18-34 and 18-49 demographics (particularly with young women). Pushing Daisies and Dirty Sexy Money are in similar shape to Eli from where I sit.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 23:29:38 +0000

Julia, my guess is that its about 50/50 that Eli Stone gets a full 22 show order this season. It's not doing much better than Pushing Daisies, and it has a much better timeslot following the DWTS results show. Also since our Renew/Cancel Index has tracked it for only one week, it could easily slip further after last night's results.

By: Julia

Julia — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 23:24:05 +0000

Robert Seidman, I have a question about Eli Stone. Do you think it will get at least 22 episodes this season?

I compared it’s numbers for the past two weeks to the other ABC sophomore shows. Right now, Eli Stone is averaging more than 8 million(close to 9) for its first two episodes while Pushing Daisies and Dirty Sexy Money are averaging around 6 million for each episode, sometimes lower. Even Private Practice is averaging around 7 million. Opportunity Knocks had already been canceled for ABC. I just don’t think that ABC can expect for the viewers who watch Dancing with the Stars to completely stick around for Eli Stone. After all, one show is a reality tv show about dancing. While the other show is a drama about a lawyer that has basically nothing to do with reality tv or even dancing.

Private Practice had already been renewed for a full season even with an average of 7 million viewers. I know the demos are higher for this show than for Eli Stone. But what are the chances that Eli Stone at least gets to have a 22 episode season? It seems like both Pushing Daisies and Dirty Sexy Money are not having high averages either.

If you compare Eli Stone to the other network tv shows, especially those that also premiered during strike…Chuck is getting around 6 million viewers. Yet, it will have a full season. Life is also getting around 8 million. Prison Break is getting around 6 million. Sarah Chronicles had just been renewed for a full season with an average of about 5 million. Even Knight Rider had recently been given a full season pick up. TV ratings are a bit strange at the moment.

With Eli Stone, it gained more than 2 million viewers compared to its season one finale. The demo ratings are okay. Not that good. But not horrible. Also, the drop off in the second half hour is to be expected since I still don’t see what the viewers who watch Dancing with the Stars would have in common with the viewers who watch a law show. Plus, it is competing against Without a Trace and Law and Order. Both shows are established shows.

I guess my question is whether you think Eli Stone will get a 22 episode order?

By: Cameron

Cameron — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 23:02:34 +0000

That’s true Bill but it was interesting to see why and how the 18-49 demographic became so important. It was all down to ABC not getting the huge number of viewers that CBS was getting, so promoted themselves as the network of the young to get the advertising dollars. It was an act of desperation basically, then NBC jumped on the bandwagon. Had either of those networks been in first place would they have used such a tactic?

By: Alde

Alde — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 21:19:09 +0000

I didn’t want to post it before there actually was some talk about Eli Stone, but I might as well now. I’ve no idea how reliable TVrage information is, though I saw the same news some place else too, but…

http://tvrage.com/Eli_Stone/news/?read_news=4769

Personally (Eli was one of my favorite new shows from last season) I hope it’s true, however, given the time the news came out and what has happened meanwhile, one can only hope to god this wouldn’t change.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 21:05:55 +0000

Cameron, I didn’t read that entire linked article, but it was written in 1978.

By: Cameron

Cameron — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 20:48:42 +0000

I hate all of the demo talk. I had to find out about why it is so popular and found this.

http://www.aliciapatterson.org/APF0103/Levine/Levine.html

By: Andrea

Andrea — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 19:47:16 +0000

Matej,

The Mentalist was renewed for the whole season

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 19:47:00 +0000

here i am — I don’t think so. I think last year, due to a crazy year with the writers strike, it seems the thinking was “this wasn’t a normal year, so we can’t really judge these shows as we normally would” — and they gave shows that would not have otherwise been renewed renewals. This seems to be the case several shows on ABC and NBC in particular.

I don’t think it was a deal where they knew what they were getting into. it’s not like they said “yeah, we’re sure this show is going to suffer, but let’s bring it back anyway!” rather more “the strike may have really screwed this show up, let’s give it another chance.”

By: Matej

Matej — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 19:45:39 +0000

The Mentalist is really killing it! I enjoy watching the series it’s really fun but somehow I doubt that it’s going to last that long / be popular …

By: here i am

here i am — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 19:41:48 +0000

If Eli Stone stabilizes remotely in this region of ratings, I would be very surprised if ABC was to cut it. When ABC renewed it last year with relatively poor ratings, they knew what they were getting into.

It almost seems like they are in with eli for the long haul (giving it a strong lead-in, multitudes of guest stars etc.)

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 19:41:21 +0000

last year when we kicked off the site’s launch with a discussion on Internet Video Measurement, we asked the participants what some of the biggest challenges were. According to Nielsen’s Dave Thomas, one of them was this:

From a single panel perspective (where we measure both Internet and television in the same home) a major hurdle is simply getting people to allow us to measure their Internet usage. From a privacy standpoint, people see PC’s as dramatically different from TV’s, and, at this point, they are much less willing to allow us to measure their online activities.

By: Julia

Julia — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 19:35:22 +0000

Europe has a lot of Socialist ideas that I agree with. Monitoring TV watching is not one.

But the point is, as discussed here the last time some people decided to claim that Nielsen is completely wrong, the normal sample size is something like 25k, I believe. During sweeps, that goes up to over 1 mil. And yet the numbers don’t change significantly. If you know so much about statistics, what does this tell you?