Though they in no way offset the overall impact of DVR viewing, I can see why the networks would be happy to be able to count the differences in terms of getting paid.

you’re right that the Live+SD numbers are a much better proxy for how a show is doing than the live+7 numbers. I’m interested in the live+7 numbers for two reasons though. One, to see the growth of DVR viewing in general and two, those numbers basically indicate advertising revenue that effectively the networks have lost. As DVR homes grow and more DVR viewing occurs it will be really interesting.

I think there may be one exception where the Live+SD numbers are not necessarily a good proxy — that’s the 10pm shows. 10pm shows typically have the least same day DVR viewing, but I bet most of it still happens within three days. Since we don’t see program ratings for a 3 day period, the live+7 numbers may be meaningful for some of the 10pm shows.

1) Nielsen minute by minute reports (only available to their clients) show that Live Commercial viewing averages around 90 to 95% of the Live Program viewing due to flipping and tune-out – always varies by show and by Network (on many cable networks it’s less).

2) The funny thing is this Nielsen’s measurement is flawed, but the best anyone can afford. Commercial viewership is WAY below 95% of the program #’s. The truth is that of the total viewers to a commercial break (let’s say measured as 10MM), approximately 40-50% of them (or 4-5MM) are either partially inattentive (checking on dinner), completely inattentive (heated political conversation), or out of the room (bathroom). No one’s #’s reflect those reductions – unfortunately having someone in the living room of Nielsen’s 10-15,000 households, taking notes on what they do every minute of viewing, isn’t really practical or affordable.

And Julia, the # of commercial viewers after 3 days of DVR playback (C3) is what the advertisers care about, but Live + Same Day or Live + 7 Day program ratings show the true viewership of a program (which the programming guys care about).

Let’s see if I can restate what we do know:
1. The average Live program minute viewing and the average C+3 commercial minute viewing are nearly identical in each of these age groups.

2. If you assume that the average Live commercial minute viewing is less than the average Live program minute viewing (which seems reasonable), then it’s that difference (whatever it might be) that is the magnitude of commercial viewing in DVR playback within 3 days.

Kris makes an assumption that the “C” (live commercial viewing) is a number that is less than Live Program. because of the way Nielsen measures the only way I’d feel comfortable knowing that for sure is to see the data, but I understand why Kris makes the assumption.

I do remember that Vincent was able to keep cool and dry but completely disassociated the Degree aspect, what role a 3.5″ screen played in that vs ADD, I can’t say.

I didn’t find the Madden story line obtrusive either. It was in your face since it was written into the story line, but it was done so in a way I liked (I didn’t think OMG, WTF!?).

I’m not sure how that worked out for Degree, since I’m in the target market and didn’t really recall it. It’s been well over 24 hours, but it has been for Madden and the iPod in Dean’s Impala and I do recall those.

Product placement will pick up, and I have no doubt that companies will be willing to pay more if their products are actually written into the story lines, and there’s little doubt that DVR usage will spur even more product placement.