The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you’re reading this after November 4, 2008 click here to see the latest list.
Readers have heard plenty about the grim prospects for Pushing Daisies, but fans of Dirty Sexy Money and Eli Stone should start worrying in earnest. They’ve both dropped into the extreme danger zone of our Renew / Cancel Index.
The fifth week of our Renew/Cancel Index shows that the list order can still change quickly this early in the season. The World Series boosted Fox’s Season to Date adults 18-49 average by over 500,000 (although a lot less than it did last year!). Temporarily, it makes all Fox’s other shows look worse in our Index. Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles and Prison Break and others *look* like they just took a big tumble, but fans should not jump to conclusions based on this baseball induced distortion. Give Fox’s 18-49 average some time to recover back to the mean and then you may begin your worrying again, or not.
Also in the past week, CBS pulled The Ex List from its schedule, tantamount to it being cancelled. Watchers of the Index were not surprised.
NBC announced a move of Life to Wednesday. That’s a sign it’s being given a chance. I originally thought the move made it immune from mid-season cancellation, but now I want to wait and see its Wednesday numbers before thinking it will stick around for a whole season. Lipstick Jungle will move to Friday. It’s being given up for dead. Both have been in the Index’s danger zone from their premiere.
CW’s Privileged slipped into the danger zone, and is moving in the wrong direction, but the carnage on Friday and Sunday for the network could cut its other shows a lot of slack this season.
The New Adventures of Old Christine seems to be making a small move for the good, but it’s got a long way to go to safety. Update: I am chided on a weekly basis for not disclaiming the situation for Christine in the Index. Perhaps CBS is willing to accept low numbers in its new timeslot indefinitely to build a new “comedy block”. Perhaps CBS will return Christine to the warmth and safety of Monday night and cut Worst Week or Gary Unmarried loose. And perhaps not.
Update: In response to astute commenter Lulla: Plenty can change before the end of the season. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Also, the renewal line last season was 0.92. Could it be 0.86 this season? Possibly. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
10/30 Update: Fox has pulled ‘Til Death from its lineup for a minimum of two weeks. I have changed its status to Cancellation in January because of the news even though it reportedly has an order for a full season of shows.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancellation by January, Cancellation by May, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 (000) | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY* | CW | 374 | 1,380 | 0.27 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE* | CW | 434 | 1,380 | 0.31 | cancelled |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,830 | 0.55 | cancelled |
| CRUSOE** | NBC | 1,996 | 3,610 | 0.55 | 13 ep. mini-series |
| LIFE** | NBC | 2,037 | 3,610 | 0.56 | moving to Wed |
| THE EX LIST** | CBS | 2,443 | 4,120 | 0.59 | pulled from schedule |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,830 | 0.62 | pulled from schedule |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,606 | 4,040 | 0.65 | |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS** | CW | 923 | 1,380 | 0.67 | |
| NUMB3RS** | CBS | 2,842 | 4,120 | 0.69 | |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,797 | 4,040 | 0.69 | |
| NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2,861 | 4,120 | 0.69 | |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,812 | 4,040 | 0.70 | |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,836 | 4,040 | 0.70 | final 13 ep. season |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 2,639 | 3,610 | 0.73 | moving to Fri |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,876 | 3,830 | 0.75 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,100 | 4,120 | 0.75 | |
| THE GAME** | CW | 1,044 | 1,380 | 0.76 | |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,357 | 4,120 | 0.81 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,155 | 3,830 | 0.82 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER** | CBS | 3,431 | 4,120 | 0.83 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 3,083 | 3,610 | 0.85 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,530 | 4,120 | 0.86 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,618 | 4,120 | 0.88 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,212 | 1,380 | 0.88 | |
| RENEWAL LIKELY BELOW THIS LINE | |||||
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,705 | 4,040 | 0.92 | |
| CHUCK | NBC | 3,320 | 3,610 | 0.92 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,775 | 4,040 | 0.93 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,786 | 4,040 | 0.94 | |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 3,503 | 3,610 | 0.97 | |
| PRIVATE PRACTICE | ABC | 3,924 | 4,040 | 0.97 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,554 | 3,610 | 0.98 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 3,578 | 3,610 | 0.99 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 4,180 | 4,120 | 1.01 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,242 | 4,120 | 1.03 | |
| BONES | FOX | 4,225 | 3,830 | 1.10 | |
| THE MENTALIST | CBS | 4,614 | 4,120 | 1.12 | |
| THE BIG BANG THEORY | CBS | 4,666 | 4,120 | 1.13 | |
| AMERICAN DAD | FOX | 4,396 | 3,830 | 1.15 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,471 | 3,830 | 1.17 | not renewed, final show in 2009-10 season |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,818 | 4,120 | 1.17 | |
| BROTHERS & SISTERS | ABC | 4,950 | 4,040 | 1.23 | |
| HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER | CBS | 5,199 | 4,120 | 1.26 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,614 | 3,610 | 1.28 | final season |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 5,345 | 4,120 | 1.30 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,815 | 1,380 | 1.32 | |
| LAW AND ORDER:SVU | NBC | 4,863 | 3,610 | 1.35 | |
| CRIMINAL MINDS | CBS | 5,623 | 4,120 | 1.36 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 5,658 | 4,120 | 1.37 | |
| SIMPSONS | FOX | 5,277 | 3,830 | 1.38 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 5,293 | 3,830 | 1.38 | |
| GOSSIP GIRL-MON | CW | 2,087 | 1,380 | 1.51 | |
| FAMILY GUY | FOX | 5,895 | 3,830 | 1.54 | |
| 90210 | CW | 2,198 | 1,380 | 1.59 | |
| SMALLVILLE | CW | 2,219 | 1,380 | 1.61 | |
| TWO AND A HALF MEN | CBS | 6,741 | 4,120 | 1.64 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,909 | 3,610 | 1.64 | |
| ONE TREE HILL-MON | CW | 2,290 | 1,380 | 1.66 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 6,074 | 3,610 | 1.68 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,517 | 3,830 | 1.70 | |
| CSI | CBS | 7,861 | 4,120 | 1.91 | |
| DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES | ABC | 8,010 | 4,040 | 1.98 | |
| GREY’S ANATOMY | ABC | 8,412 | 4,040 | 2.08 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. Note: Only shows that have premiered during the 2008-9 broadcast season are on this list.
*CW MRC Sunday – The CW has leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). Easy Money and Valentine have been cancelled. It is reported that MRC has the right (obligation?) to program Sunday nights throughout 2008-9 on the CW. What will they do next? Stay tuned.
**Friday night – Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. My grading technique on shows with histories on Friday (only Numb3rs and Ghost Whisperer) is that until they reach their Index values from last season they still are at risk of non-renewal.
How did we come up with our list? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger. We’re not sure what the magic number will be this season, but I’m very confident that our index will still indicate the shows most likely to be cancelled compared to those less likely to be cancelled.
—————————————————————-
For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However the closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it’s in of being cancelled or not returning when it’s run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM’S WAY* | CW | 371 | 1,380 | 0.27 | |
| AMERICA’S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,453 | 3,610 | 0.40 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,908 | 4,040 | 0.47 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 1,982 | 4,040 | 0.49 | |
| 48 HOURS MYSTERY | CBS | 2,031 | 4,120 | 0.49 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,912 | 3,830 | 0.50 | |
| DON’T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 2,024 | 3,830 | 0.53 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,175 | 4,040 | 0.54 | cancelled |
| COPS | FOX | 2,087 | 3,830 | 0.54 | |
| SUPERNANNY | ABC | 2,214 | 4,040 | 0.55 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI** | NBC | 2,004 | 3,610 | 0.56 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,183 | 3,830 | 0.57 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,388 | 3,830 | 0.62 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,567 | 4,040 | 0.64 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,480 | 3,830 | 0.65 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,444 | 3,610 | 0.68 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED | NBC | 2,532 | 3,610 | 0.70 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,974 | 4,040 | 0.74 | |
| KITCHEN NIGHTMARES | FOX | 3,052 | 3,830 | 0.80 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,229 | 4,040 | 0.80 | |
| 60 MINUTES | CBS | 3,609 | 4,120 | 0.88 | |
| AMAZING RACE 13 | CBS | 4,133 | 4,120 | 1.00 | |
| STYLISTA | CW | 1,458 | 1,380 | 1.06 | |
| BIGGEST LOSER 6 | NBC | 4,045 | 3,610 | 1.12 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 4,770 | 4,040 | 1.18 | |
| EXTREME MAKEOVER:HM ED-8P | ABC | 5,009 | 4,040 | 1.24 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,511 | 3,610 | 1.25 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,816 | 4,120 | 1.41 | |
| DANCING WITH THE STARS | ABC | 5,917 | 4,040 | 1.46 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 5,772 | 3,610 | 1.60 | |
| THE OT | FOX | 6,207 | 3,830 | 1.62 | |
| AMERICA’S TOP MODEL-5 | CW | 2,486 | 1,380 | 1.80 | |
| NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL | NBC | 8,517 | 3,610 | 2.36 |
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
October 28th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
Wow first post, and i don’t even live in the states. When criminal intent was on nbc was it doing bad compared to their average?
October 28th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
Nice to see New Christine creeping along. It really is one of the better sitcoms on TV. I predict (hopeful) that CBS will keep it around. If it completes all 22 episodes this season, then it’s pretty close to having a sufficient number of episodes for syndication, which may be worth the investment in another 13 for next season. Second, it is not like anything can be considered a hit on Wed in the 8-9pm slot. Bones is the only show above the renew threshold. Sadly, I think Pushing Daisies is just too creative and well written to be liked by the masses.
October 28th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
Ben: L&O: CI had a .72 when it aired on NBC. you can see last season’s end of year wrap-up here:
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/08/27/the-renewcancel-index-our-predictor-of-show-futures/4800
October 28th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
once again placing doubt in Old Christine i can tell you wish the show to be canceled for some reason its doing very well for itself 8 million viewers with no lead in?? and the other monday night comedies on cbs lose alot of there 2 and a half lead in (worst week loses almost 5 million vieres from a 14 million lead in) i am positive christine will survive……….and why is my own worst enemy not in the cancelation zone it dose horrible
October 28th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Sam, Bill is not always a big picture guy and sometimes he sinks into the abyss of just looking at the numbers. Given his refusal to write anything as a disclaimer about what CBS is trying to do with the Wednesday comedy block he really might have it in for Old Christine! I think it more likely he is just being a purist with the numbers,grits his teeth, shakes his head and thinks “but the numbers are the numbers!”
Personally I think it’s just as likely that Christine (and perhaps Gary Unmarried) sticks around as Worst Week, despite their relative positions in the index.
October 28th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
p.s. as for MOWE, it’s a function of two things: bad performance overall for NBC in the 18-49 demo, and that though its overall numbers have stunk (and the above index doesn’t include last night’s number, which eroded even more), it has performed relatively better in the demos.
October 28th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
So what happens with Life now that it’s being moved? Are the two timeslots judged separately?
October 28th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Julia, that’s a very good question. My understanding may be totally off base, but here it is: from an S-T-D perspective, any show airing in its scheduled time slot counts unless it is designated “special”. I’m not sure that the Life episodes that aired on Mondays were counted (they were definitely designated “special”). My thinking is that the Wednesday and Friday epsisodes should be mashed together for S-T-D averaging since both will have been the regular timeslot.
Whether that’s what Nielsen actually does, I dunno. We’ll see when we get the results for 11/3-11/9
October 28th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
Oh goodness!!!!! T:SCC is in danger of being cancelled! i hope they dont and they need to realize that it is a great show and is really interesting!!! Also Next year have it at the 9oclock timeslot and have a good leadin!!!
October 28th, 2008 at 7:27 pm
Do you know why the CW’s average went up 170,000 viewers when every show went down except for One Tree Hill? The only things I can think of would be better repeat numbers or a huge increase for ANTM. If the second reason is the case, maybe you should consider calculating the averages for each network without unscripted shows included, like you do for FOX without American Idol, because if not the scripted show’s index numbers dropped lower than they should have.
October 28th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
Julia, based on what they’ve done before, Nielsen will likely report the S-T-D numbers for each of those Life [and Lipstick Jungle] day/time slots separately. I will show them both and annotate them somehow. I think you’ll need to see both results to compare.
Nielsen does report non-standard timeslot airings in its S-T-D numbers if the network didn’t designate that airing as a special (which is nearly a distinction without meaning except for the S-T-D averages). Those are pretty few in number, and I have stripped them out of the list above, since they are usually just a single show.
October 28th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Eli Stone is fine. ABC wantsa lawyer show, the ratings are decent (good for this year) and there are no huge stars.
October 28th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
sean, America’s Top Model was up and Stylista premiered with 18-49 numbers above the previous CW average. They also contributed to the average boosting. Non-scripted shows are in the separate list because they seemed to be treated differently in renewal/cancellation decisions, but their numbers contribute to the network averages.
October 28th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Dear Bill:
There is some justice now for all the “Moonlight Fans” that “The Ex-List” has been taken off the CBS Schedule. True Blood is just awful I tried to watch the first 5 minutes…no comparision to Moonlight-puts Moonlight to shame.
But “Moonlight” will be out in DVD in January-Moonlight Fans would love it to be sooner.
I wish Nina had listened to the Moonlight Fan Base-obviously we knew more than she did.
We hope to see a movie out of “Moonlight” possibly…anything can happen.
I still miss my Friday nights without “Moonlight.” Now I watch FOX NEWS throughout the day and mostly evenings with exception of NCIS and CSI.
Sometimes you never know what you really lost until it is gone. You would think that between the loss of “Jericho” twice and then “Moonlight” how many times does the CBS Entertainment Group ever learn their lesson.
Thanks for all your TV news always appreciated.
Thanks for keeping us informed.
Best,
Lynn M. Rogers
October 28th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
Lynne, and anyone else, Moonlight was CBS’s worst performing show in the 18-49 demo. It deserved to be cancelled. The Ex-List was CBS’s worst performing show in the 18-49 demo. It deserved to be cancelled.
CBS has done better than any of the other networks this season on both an absolute basis and on a relative basis vs. last season. Ascribe that to luck if you’d like, but I prefer to take the results at face value.
October 28th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
David4, unless you’re talking to someone significant inside the Mouse, why would you say that? Eli Stone was a borderline cancel show last year. I doubt it gets much slack this year.
ABC has quite a few shows ready to go at mid-season. My guess is they’re going to clean house in January.
October 28th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
I have placed a disclaimer in the text above for all those New Adventures of Old Christine fans who were potential coronary victims. Keep your heart rates down.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
DSM is doing exactly what is expected. It is doing very well in foreign markets and is picking up steam 18-34 and 18-49 women. Simply KILLING LG. Cheaper to keep her Bill.
Your guess about cleaning house may be correct but your timeline is off a couple months
October 28th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Just a hypothetical question, but what would happen if, say, all the networks suddenly started airing all their shows 5-10 minutes late for no reason? Would the FCC do anything? That’s what’s happening here in Australia, and nothing is being done about it. **cough** torrents **cough**
October 28th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
Ben, if they did so without announcing, there would be a lot of pissed off DVR users
Bill, I know it’s not as easy to asterisk as say Friday nights, but the issue with Christine, Gary Unmarried and Worst Week is quite interesting. I think there is a case to be made that Worst Week is in more peril (even if CBS sticks out Wednesdays) despite the index. Last year Rules and Christine were not the weakest demo link in the 9:30 Monday spot — they both outperformed TBB and HIMYM in the demo. Worst Week isn’t doing that and the odds that CBS doesn’t look at that are about as good as Greg Oden making it through a full season (or even one game) without getting hurt.
The one thing with Wednesdays that is a surprise to me is that one very good reason to have another comedy block is the lucrative nature of the 30 minute comedies in syndication. But none of the those three shows is produced by CPT. Christine has the closest “blood ties” being Warner Brothers produced. Christine is around halfway to 100 episodes.
October 28th, 2008 at 11:45 pm
CBS has Rules of Engagement coming in a mid-season, so I think it’s likely that one of those 3 comedies is history in January, but it is difficult to guess which one.
October 28th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
Bill, do you think ABC would at least let Eli Stone finish filming its 13 episode order? I think they are filming episode 10 right now. This is one of my favorite shows. I at least would like to see it get its 13 episode order.
And what about the extra 4 episode script order that ABC had asked for a few weeks ago for Eli Stone? I know that the script order doesn’t guarantee the actual episodes. But what are the chances of getting maybe 17 episodes right now?
October 29th, 2008 at 4:50 am
yeah we will get a back 9 , status qou until economy stabilizes IMHO
October 29th, 2008 at 5:12 am
I must say, as much as I loved Eli Stone last season, I haven’t found it quite as engaging this year. It’s gone over-the-top with dramatic do-gooder intentions, IMHO. It’s missing the “George Michael” factor – not just George himself, but those quirky, sometimes humorous visions.
Thus I am not surpised that it’s at such a high risk of cancellation now. Perhaps Nielsen viewers are also tuning out with the show’s more downbeat turn? Jonny Lee Miller is an amazing actor, and it’s a shame they weren’t able to make better use of him.
October 29th, 2008 at 6:22 am
FINALLY someone is listening to me!! i think cbs will ditch worst week and put christine back in its rightfull place and yes it is intresting cbs got themself in a situation here if the wednesday night happy hour dont work
October 29th, 2008 at 6:39 am
Ahhh please save ELI STONE and DIRTY SEXY MONEY, I love those shows very realistic and relatable unlike Pushing Daisies.
I’m worried about UGLY BETTY being in the last in the safe zone, I love that show.
October 29th, 2008 at 7:31 am
You should number this list and tell us where the shows were last week. Alternatively, you could just list last week’s Index rating. For example, it seemed to me that Pushing Daisies was climbing toward respectability, but, after I checked the past week’s lists, it actually took a step back this week (.62, .63, .72 and then a .65 this week). It would be nice to skip the step of fishing around through old posts by establishing some sort of trend line. Also, is the Index rating for the ABC shows moving around based solely on the DWTS and Housewives weekly ratings? It seems like having a big number on top might skew the Index.
October 29th, 2008 at 7:32 am
I am so interested in these numbers being a CPA. But I am even more interested in programming. How far do you go to preserve comedy night or fantasy night. Let’s take NBC (someone should!). Monday – Chuck is one of the best shows and should be saved but is in a bad time slot. Heroes is tanking but has good demos. I was looking forward to MOWE and got through the first episode but the second ep was indecipherable. So in my mind one good show stuck tight in a “fantasy night”. So does this mean that they don’t move Chuck to another night for better chances and its numbers stay low and it is canceled because it wasn’t allowed to break its programming block. When I look at the rest of NBC’s schedule – it looks like its reality shows have been overexposed, Law and Order is long in the tooth and ER is in its last season, Lipstick Jungle is out the doornew shows Crusoe, Kath and Kim, MOWE are not doing well. Really the only two shows that are consistently reviewed well are Life and Chuck. And when you think about what else do they have. So numbers vs dumping everything. At least they are trying a new crime block to draw some viewers.
October 29th, 2008 at 7:40 am
Pretty sure a lot of shows you put on your “Cancellation likely by May” won’t be cancelled actually. Even if “Cold Case” & “Without A Trace” are not the success they were a few years ago, their ratings are pretty decent. Those of “Eli Stone” are not that bad I think. It’s better than last year for the moment. Hope it’ll last.
October 29th, 2008 at 7:56 am
Lynn Rogers:
I would say that CBS did indeed learn their lesson about listening to the fans when “Jericho” returned to smaller adiences than it had in its first season.
No save-our-show campaign is ever going to be paid attention to again, and Moonlight deserved the axe regardless of what happened to Ex-List.
October 29th, 2008 at 7:58 am
I’d agree that moving Chuck will help it considerably. Lead slot on Wednesdays would probably work best, and move Knight Rider to 9PM, with Life following. Now that Lipstick Jungle is on the ropes, it’s time to cut it loose. That would give NBC a decent lineup on a night in which it can compete. Deal or No Deal can go back to its traditional Monday slot and can fight it out with the other networks.
October 29th, 2008 at 8:21 am
Patrick,
You should be in programming. Crime night going from funny to cheesy to quirky. It makes sense logistically as they are all “crime shows”, keeps two good shows together, gives Chuck a chance to shine and and probably gives a stronger lead-in with Deal for Heroes.
October 29th, 2008 at 8:30 am
Clayton, I’ve only got so much column width to work with, folks can always click the link at the top to see past weeks. Trendlines for all the shows would be a crazy amount of work, but the numbers are all in the past posts, if anyone wants to draw the charts, I’ll post them! I do discuss the trends of a few shows, but since pretty much *every* show moves somewhere, that would be a wall of text no one would read to discuss them all
Lulla, I agree that plenty can change before the end of the season. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Also, the renewal line last season was 0.92. Could it be 0.86 this season? Possibly. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
October 29th, 2008 at 8:50 am
Actually, Bill, it’s easy to put numbers next to each other from a prior via a spreadsheet program like Excel, then transfer the data into a table for the Web page, unless of course you have to code everything and aren’t using something like Dreamweaver or the Web Authoring tool du jour. Just need the infamous “&” character to connect cells.
Of course, if you start going overboard with it, then you’re right with a huge wall of text. But a simple one, like sports websites do with their rankings—TW(LW)—would work great.
October 29th, 2008 at 11:37 am
@ABCFANATIC,
I dont see ugly betty being in any trouble. ABC has too many shows that are slipping already. and Ugly Betty gets solid numbers. So i dont think you need to worry.
October 29th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Good news for Old Christine yet again. Hopefully it will only build as the season progresses. I think CBS will keep that over Gary and Worst Week, but who knows really?
October 29th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
I like the thought of Knight Rider and Chuck together. If only there could be a crossover episode with those 2… As for Life, whatever keeps it on the air, whether it be wednesdays, mondays or whatever days. However, wednesdays at 10 would force double stacking Law and Order again. I doubt they’d do that. Maybe…
Mondays: Deal – Heroes – Law
Wednesday: KR/Chuck (doesn’t matter which comes first) – MOWE/Life (whichever survives in a cage match gets the slot)
I never thought of Without a Trace or Cold Case as bubble shows… they seem so rock solid. I guess those beastly CBS ratings make everything go crazy. They keep wanting to kill The Unit, but it seems to hold on for dear life every year.
October 29th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
y is without a trace in danger of cancellation?
October 29th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
Thank God “GHOST WHISPERER” is likely to be renewed for another season. This bought a little relief.!
October 30th, 2008 at 2:32 am
I too hope they don’t prematurely can Eli Stone. Great show, and has the potential to get so much better this season with the current story arc.
Given some of the crap that keeps getting renewed, is it too much to ask for more Eli?
October 30th, 2008 at 6:35 am
Hehe… Glad to see Grey’s Anatomy is still amongst the highest viewed shows. I can’t wait to see the ratings for this season. It’s going to be insane. The premiere alone sky rocketed! Ah… i hope this show stays around for at least 10 seasons, and after season 7… the actors resign their contracts.
If it ever ends i think i might die! ARGH! MerDer forever 
October 30th, 2008 at 6:42 am
Maddie, Grey’s numbers are way down from previous seasons. It’s still one of the top rated shows in the demo, but there is nothing about these numbers or about the premiere numbers that say “sky rocket” to me. Maybe you are referring to something else?
October 30th, 2008 at 8:16 am
Greys Anatomy is a sinking ship
October 30th, 2008 at 10:13 am
No its not or you’re were just saying its the TV’s Titanic because Grey’s Anatomy is a hit show
October 30th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Again, POOR development is key here. I think the slate of new shows for the past two years, and potentially, the upcoming season are so awful that .80 will be the mark to reach this year. Knight Rider, for example, at .85 has already been given a full season order while Prison Break gets an extra boost for doing well with young men. I really think the networks are running scared (again) post-strike and will be fine with any show that gets them 4/5 of their usual 18-49 audience because, frankly, it’s better than picking up a new show that you already know can’t reach that mark. The question now lies on the shows in between .70 and .80 and whether they can have enough growth to be safe when May rolls around. Fox, for example, ordered more installments of the Terminator spin-off which proves my point. .7-.8 is definitely the gray area here. With Pushing Daisies posting gains last night, I think it’s now in the gray area as well.
October 30th, 2008 at 10:49 am
DDK, the Index is relative to all the other shows on a network. It’s certainly possible that it goes below 0.92, but I’d argue that last season was the generous one for show pickups because of the strike and it’s just as likely that the Index number for renewal goes *up* this season.
And also remember that the Index was derived from end of season season to date results and renewals and cancellation decisions. Don’t be fooled by orders of additional episodes this season into thinking that show is going to survive *beyond* this season.
October 30th, 2008 at 11:15 am
I think there should be some color coding for the reality shows. I know it’s hard to predict their renewals because of the costs involved. Opportunity Knocks had expensive components and producers attached, for example, while Cops literally can’t cost more than paying for the camera man, the film & equipment, and the producer names attached.
However, I think any reality show earning a 1.0 should be colored in green. There’s absolutely no way a reality show with those numbers won’t be brought back. The network average AND a more cost efficient budget than scripted programming? You’d have to be as stupid as Zucker to ignore that.
October 30th, 2008 at 11:22 am
Also, you could do for the Saturday shows the same that you did with Ghost Whisperer & Numb3rs which is to put them in green if they’re matching their renew/cancel index from last season. So, Cops, could be highlighted for example if it’s doing business on par with what we’re accustomed to.
And the line for reality shows should pretty much be .9 since there were only really two instances above .8 last year that were canceled.
October 30th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
So why should stupid pointless crappy reality shows like Wifeswap and Supernanny be kept around when Pushing Daisies and many other shows in your “cancel” range are in jeporady of being canceled. Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone, and Dirty Sexy Money are ALL doing better than those two reality shows. But I don’t see anyone talking about how they’re chances of being canceled.
October 30th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Kyle, two reasons: (1) Experience from last season when some reality shows with very low 18-49 numbers survived, likely because (2) They cost almost nothing to make.
I think people don’t talk a lot about them, at least that’s been our experience, because there isn’t the level of involvement with them that there is for scripted shows.
October 30th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
DDK, see my answer to Kyle above. I don’t spend a lot of time on the unscripted shows because people don’t care about them like they do scripted programming. Example, when Opportunity Knocks was cancelled our post about it got ONE comment.
October 30th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Is it me or is the link to see past week’s indexes is missing?
October 30th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Nevermind… its me.
October 30th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Shocker! Hollywood Reporter says that FOX is canceling “King of the Hill”
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3ic9655ee4528b1af4f468cd97e9a12880
October 31st, 2008 at 6:47 am
A show like Wife Swap or Supernanny is practically comparable to COPS. The bulk of expenses go to the producers and the camera men/editors. I imagine an episode of each of those lowbrow spouse switching shows costs 500K.
October 31st, 2008 at 7:31 am
After seeing the third episode of Eli Stone, might as well just cancel it. They have been downsizing Eli’s visions and the music all season, and that reached its nadir with this latest episode, the first non musical episode of the series. We already have umpteen courtroom shows. Don’t need another.
Why is it that the first thing networks do in order to “fix” a show is to bleed it of everything that makes it unique? Making things blander won’t make them more popular. If you are going to shoot your wad before cancellation, then why not go in the opposite direction? Make it more outlandish. If that doesn’t work, then say goodbye and move on to the next thing.
Sort of odd that the nets had these interesting shows that they decided to bring back and repromote this year (Eli, Life, DSM, among others), and what they did was try and make all of them less interesting, more conformist, hoping to draw people who wouldn’t watch any of them for a minute unless you renamed them CSI: Pittsburg or Columbo: 2008. Or maybe CSI: Columbo in Pittsburgh.
How do people get to run networks? Is their a stupid academy you have to fail out of before you can get that job?
I don’t advocate keeping miserably low rated shows on the air, but you will never make a show a hit by gelding it. If it’s not going to make it as is, then you can either make it MORE of what it is and see where that gets you, or you can cancel it. But when a show only has a small group of core psychotics watching to begin with, alienating them so you can try and attract elderly people who are never going to watch unless you pay them is a big mistake. You go from a small audience to no audience. This happens every year, over and over and over again, and yet no one ever seems to learn.
You either make a good show and try to get people to watch (Cheers, Seinfeld, HSB, NCIS), or you make a lousy show and luck out when people watch anyway right out of the gate (pick one), but can’t make people watch by taking a good show and making it worse. That’s never worked in the history of television, and isn’t about to start working now.
Color me grumpy because I’m down to like 1/2 hour of consistently entertaining television a week.
October 31st, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Listen up Ghost Whisperer Fans if you wana save Ghost Whisperer Please sign the petiton @ http://www.petitiononline.com/SGWFBC/petition.html
October 31st, 2008 at 8:11 pm
Kath & Kim just got a full season pickup
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/television/news/e3i63073cda9189a10c1b47ab72abc8a96c
October 31st, 2008 at 8:45 pm
NBC might as well pull a gun out and shoot their own foot now. That show is by far the weakest link of their Thursday night lineup. Of course, I’m sure it will go the way of ‘Til Death and survive for years for reasons no one knows.
October 31st, 2008 at 9:08 pm
Umm i believe that king of the hill will be over in 2009. you put up 2009-10 season.
October 31st, 2008 at 9:20 pm
JP, TVWeek reported:
The show’s most recent episode order of 13 half-hours will be its last, a Fox spokesman said Thursday. Given the lead time for animation, it’s likely the series will air its final episode sometime during the 2009-10 season.
http://www.tvweek.com/news/2008/10/king_of_the_hill_canceled.php
That’s where I got the status.
Of course, you’re right too if it ends in Fall 2009. That *is* in the 2009-10 season.
October 31st, 2008 at 9:22 pm
Folks, Kath & Kim is getting average 18-49 year old viewership for NBC. Above average if you take out Sunday Night Football. Networks do not cancel their average shows
November 1st, 2008 at 9:19 am
The people happiest about the Kath and Kim renewal- the Ugly Betty production team. LOL.
November 1st, 2008 at 9:25 am
CBS won’t cancel Ghost Whisperer; its a hit for a friday night show. Don’t know why fans are signing petitions.
November 1st, 2008 at 9:32 am
Fin, we’re with you, at its current numbers on Friday GW would certainly be renewed. Perhaps fans fear CBS or perhaps (more likely, probably) people just like rallying around causes…sometimes even when it’s completely unnecessary.
November 1st, 2008 at 10:25 am
Wow CBS is just like the main network; crime, dramas and cheesy comedies seem to be in. ABC doesn’t seem to be doing well on wednesdays; wonder when they’ll cancel Dirty Sexy Money if they’ve already cancelled Pushing Up Daisies.
November 1st, 2008 at 10:39 am
Question, how were the ages for the demos decided? I know it’s something to do with that age group being the biggest consumers. But my dad is about to be 59 and he buy plenty of crap. Also, it seems that older people who have grown children would have more money to spend.
November 1st, 2008 at 10:49 am
Stacy, it seems to be the case that the demo focus is driven by “availability” of viewers, and not spending patterns and buying power. Simply put: LOTS of people over the age of 50 watch television. Relative to people under 50, people over 50 are very easy to reach. People under 50 watch TV less, and are harder to reach in general, and so the advertisers focus on them more. Certain products are obviously targeted at specific ages (kids, teens, young adults, and even older adults) but it’s the relative scarcity of under 50 year old viewers that drives the focus.
November 1st, 2008 at 9:41 pm
It’s so sad to see that two tv series that i love watching are most likely to be cancelled…i sincerely hope that FOX’s T:SCC and CW’s Privileged don’t get cancelled. Also i hate to see that series like Everybody Hates Chris and Til’ Death are so far down the line…these are such fun tv series…what’s going on over there north americans?! (I’m from south america, duh). Well there’s not much foreign people can do to change these ratings since these are tv programs that are only aired in the USA (maybe Canada also? no?)…USA Tv “administrators” should realize that there’s alot of people around the world watching this tv programs…these shouldn’t only be quantified by the amount of north american watchers…but, what the…it’s not like my opinion “matters”…Anyway…sad to see these, hoping it changes…bye!
November 1st, 2008 at 9:43 pm
So how does this list explain the recent renewal of American Dad and the recent cancellation of King of the Hill? Given KotH being higher on the list than American Dad?
It makes sense to me, given the age of KotH and the likely expensive voice-acting, but…just curious.
November 1st, 2008 at 10:34 pm
Steve, the list does not explain it at all. All I can guess is that either the cost of the show outweighed its relative ratings success, or there were other non-economic factors that trumped the obvious ones related to advertising revenue.
November 2nd, 2008 at 1:42 am
What are the approximate parameters within this index of a ‘bubble’ show?
November 2nd, 2008 at 2:26 am
The index can’t account for show producers not feeling like making the show anymore. I think that was part of the issue with King of the Hill.
Ben, excluding “Friday Shows” last season the “bubble” area was in the low .80s
November 2nd, 2008 at 1:17 pm
If chuck can hit almost 7 million viewers, then it can hit 8 million. God i hope daylight savings help it hit 8:D
Bill or Rob is that Chuck and Heroes done until midseason?
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:25 pm
I keep hearing so much squacking about Heroes being in danger of cancellation, but according to your index, it appears to be safe…for now. I know the brass at NBC is not happy creatively with the bashing it has been taking in the media, even though I still think it is one of the better shows on TV.
So my question is if it is doing so well demographically, then why all the chicken little talk?
November 8th, 2008 at 6:26 am
Kath and Kim has got to be the worst show on television. If Jim goes Ghost Whisper goes with it. Save Eli I still enjoy Eli Stone regardless of the new direction as well as Till Death.
I guess with the chance of about 60% of my favorite shows having the opportunity to be canceled I can quit watching tv.
November 8th, 2008 at 7:26 am
Dirty Sexy Money canceled
Private Practice after Grey’s Anatomy
Life on Mars after Lost
ABC told Berlanti to choose between DSM and Eli Stone and Berlanti chose ES
http://travisyanan.blogspot.com/
November 8th, 2008 at 8:48 am
Cool, I see Travis’ information, but he doesn’t make it clear whether it’s officially announced or just what he’s been told.
November 13th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Sorry guys this has gotta stop.
That schedule leak is BOGUS, ABC said ” We think it is BS” “We do not know anything about it” “We have not decided WHERE to put DSM”
Berlanti deciided??? LOL
Once again Berlanti is an eight figure EMPLOYEE, he is influencial yes but he gets paid regardless. The Network will make the decision not Greg, he did not choose ES over DSM.
November 13th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
dirtysexyj, This post is > 2 weeks old. Have events (and our later posts) not passed it by?
November 13th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
dirtysexyj, sorry you’re just wrong. That leaked schedule came directly from ABC. I have no idea what Travis based his info. on, but FUTON CRITIC got a legit schedule from ABC. It specifically stated that it wasn’t final yet but how the Winter Schedule was shaping up.
You’ve basically just now called yourself out completely as being full of it. ABC sent the schedules out to advertising firms. You claim they don’t know they did that? If you DO have a job with DSM it must be a small one and the people at ABC you talk to must be clerks in the mail room.
November 13th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAh Nick you are right.
I walk with Kings , although I am just a common man. I just signed a THREE figure deal with ABC!!!
Keep believing bogus schedules. If you knew anything about network programming you would recognize precisely why your failed sched cannot be legit.
hint
1. SCRUBS
hint
2.ATJ
Futon Critic DID NOT GET THAT SCHEDULE FROM ABC according to #3 at the NETWORK not the studio. Would you like me to post the EMAIL?
November 13th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
I would like to see that email.
November 13th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Sorry Bill, I cannot keep track , cool has been bothering me for the last several weeks.
The schedule leak is what caused my cast and crew great panic and stress. Do not believe for a second we did not point blank ask the network if this was a legit schedule. I will admit the schedule has some accurate portions one of which is DSM not having a timeslot…………….
November 13th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
So DSM is canceled then?
November 13th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Julia maybe.
We are not currently on the schedule. We know Lost will air and then LOM, I guess they are waiting to see the numbers from LOM?
We will likely not be told until Tuesday.
Sadly nobody knows what to do with the end of the show, do we end it end it or end it as if we were going on..
The angst this has caused is unbearable
December 18th, 2008 at 12:52 am
I can’t believe Dirty Sexy Money will be canceled. First Men in Trees and now Dirty Sexy Money. What are we supposed to watch? Keep this show!!!
January 3rd, 2009 at 12:09 am
Im Glad About Pushing Daisies- It Was Definetely Written TOO Well To Be Liked.
- Dont Cancel ELi Stone ! I Think Its An Amazing Show Its Different From Anything Else If You End At Least Give It An Amazing Ending It Deserves Not With The One They Left It With.
And Their Cancelling DSM?! Arghh First Jericho, Then Eli Stone And Now Dirst Sexy Money And Possibly Ugly Betty? This Sucks ! Theres So Many Other Shows They Could Cancel !