Reading an article by Steven Zeitchik and Paul J. Gough in THR.com article speculating about what the effects of the election will be on Hollywood (both TV and movies), got me thinking as well. Here are some of Steven and Paul’s and their interviewees guesses:
Jay Leno and David Letterman are rooting for the Republicans.
“If McCain wins, late-night hosts would have a field day,” CNN pundit and Hunter College professor Karen Hunter said.
And if Barack Obama wins? ”Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity would have a field day,” she said.
“The people who have the most trouble will be people like Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert,” one network late-night producer said. “It’s very hard to rail against the machine when you helped support the machine. They’re going to have to find a different dynamic.”
An election that lifts either the left or right to power will provide a boost to the network imbued with the ideology of the other side. Given Obama’s lead at the polls, an MSNBC comeback — Olbermann’s ratings continue to be strong and Maddow’s upstart show is an unlikely second-place challenger to CNN’s Larry King — could stall if the Illinois senator ascends to the Oval Office. And such effects wouldn’t be limited to MSNBC: Cable ratings in general could sag.
My guesses:
- Entirely unmentioned in the THR.com article (and forgotten by me until Robert reminded me), the biggest effect after the election will be the crash back to earth of Saturday Night Live after reaching record heights this season if Obama loses. Lorne Michaels may be the only man in broadcast network TV rooting for McCain/Palin on Tuesday.
- Cable news ratings overall will drop substantially, to the levels of a year ago, regardless of who wins. Cable news has seen a tremendous surge as people who’d never ordinarily watch have gotten interested in the election (and the financial crises, which will also go away although perhaps more slowly that the political news).
- An Obama win would likely help Fox a bit, as a McCain win would help MSNBC a bit, but I think the overall benefit is likely to be smaller than many pundits think.
- I don’t think there will be much effect on Letterman and Leno (and whoever follows him). They feature political jokes in their monologues during the election season, but that’s such a small part of their overall shows I don’t think it matters to viewership. The few spikes they’ve seen when they had candidate guests really don’t effect long term trends at all.
- Stewart and Colbert ratings may suffer a bit more than Leno and Letterman, but not as much as other folks might think. Sure, they had ample material over the last 8 years targeting the Bush administration and they’re unlikely to go after Obama in the same way, but I think their writers are plenty clever enough to write clever shows.
News will drop. Not sure what will happen with SNL, but I don’t think it matters at all. The winner/loser won’t affect SNL. Either way their ratings would be dropping so it’s not that big of a deal. Just as Leno, etc. don’t really care. The News Networks will see a drop, that is inevitable. I don’t see how the Republicans winning will make MSNBC do better. Complaining about the establishment isn’t the only way to gather viewers. It just seems like they’re reaching.
Colbert and Stewart will essential become Republicans if Obama wins.
Simple fact, if Obama wins-the media will make a 360 turn and stop supporting him as much.
colbert and stewart don’t “go after” bush. that’s the wrong way to look at it. they “go after” stupidity. bush just happened to be really good at it. in 2009 they will continue to go after that stupidity. and even though obama supposedly walks on water (i’m a democrat by the way) he and his administration (if he wins which i am not sure of) will make many stupid mistakes. everyone does. left or right. and stewart and colbert will be there to make fun of it.
you all have to remember fox ascended to the top when bush was in office. yes they had a field day with clinton, but they really made the ratings surge during the bush presidency.
fox viewers also shut off the tv during the obama/hillary primary nights and at the dnc (beaten easily in the demo by msnbc). so yes msnbc has made a shift left but left wingers will still go to hear the home town news.
the philly papers here had to reprint issues to meet demand due to the phillies winning the world series. monday issues always sell better when the eagles win. people like good news. so left wingers will still watching msnbc when obama hopefully wins tuesday.
comedy, though, is a different story. obama doesnt have a funny accent or a sex scandal to make fun of. once he does something that is easily made fun of, snl and the rest of the shows will jump on it and bury him like they did clinton and bush.
Nick C, SNL’s rise is 100% due to the election, and I’d make 90% of that due to Fey/Palin. Unless McCain wins, that all goes away and its back to its unremarkable ratings from last year.
Hera, I don’t think Colbert and Stewart start attacking Obama if he wins. They’re way too much in his camp. However, I think their writers are clever enough to write funny shows and not attack Obama or the Dems at all. That’s why I don’t think it’s a big deal for them.
Even if McCain wins, SNL won’t have Fey, as she said she’s done with Sarah Palin, win or lose (Especially win). Kristen Wiig will probably do a decent job, but it won’t be the same. And yeah, considering how Lame-O the show is after the opening, it’ll definitely drop back down to previous levels after this Saturday.
As for other things, Stewart will probably find something to make fun of Obama with, though Colbert will be interesting, since he’s spent the last three years as a faux-cheerleader for the Republicans, so now he becomes a man fighting against the power?
Bill, sorry it just doesn’t matter who wins. Ratings are going to drop. To suggest SNL would keep high ratings if McCain won is unfounded. Ratings are going to drop nothing is going to stop that. It’s just pointless rambling from people trying to believe that there is more there than is there. Networks know what is going to happen to news. SNL may be more affected than other political comedies but that is because the show is awful and lacks vision with the exception of their political skits. The “talent,” on SNL is at a near all time low. It’s a sad shadow of its former self.
Colbert will be easy. He’s merely a persona, which is supposed to hate Dems, so he just continues doing that. And while Stewart obviously agrees with the Dems, which is most obvious during his interviews, the bits that they do are very even handed. They’ve made fun of Obama and Biden a good amount as well as McCain and Palin. The interviews will still probably be very pro-Dem, but the bits will make fun of everyone and anyone, just like always.
If Obama wins, I actually see Fox News declining significantly. The Democrats will have total power in D.C. and the Republicans will be completely side-lined. The Democrats will simply boycott Fox News – just as they did in the Democratic primaries (at least until Hillary broke the boycott when she was down in the polls). I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama pulls Fox out of the White House Press Corps (or moves them to the back row).
Bottom line is that Fox won’t have the access to meaningfully report on anything going on in D.C. It’ll be an echo chamber with Hannity, Karl Rove, Dick Morris, and Newt Gingrich, and you’ll start to see the ratings die off. Remember, a huge chunk of Fox’s audience are centrists/independents.
@Bill: Since yellow journalism, the media has hated every President in office. They will hate Obama if he wins.
@Outlander: FOX News will remain on the top. They will still have stuff to report on, and they might just have to wait for CNN to report it first, but Conservative and a lot of other groups will be watching it attack the Democratic Government. If Obama does kick FOX News out….oh boy will Obama be attacked for being anti-press.
Hera, I agree the media will be adversary towards the President, but how does that change my predictions?
Nick C, if Tina Fey actually made good on her promise to stay off SNL regardless of who wins, I agree. SNL drops like a rock regardless of who wins.
Outlander, I think all cable news declines significantly, back to the levels of about a year ago.
Bill–I think it’s not clear how “adversarial” the press will get with Obama. The press only really went after Clinton when he lied (e.g. Monica Lewinsky). He otherwise got favorable coverage. I think a big part of the reason why is that the press was focused on attacking a Republican “villain:” Speaker Newt Gingrich. But with huge Democratic congressional majorities, I don’t see how the press will find a good Republican villain. So to your point, it does beg the question of whether the press will spend 4 years running stories like: “Barack the Beneficient blessed children today on Capitol Hill after passing a glorious health care nationalization plan.”
I predict that by May 2009, assuming Obama is elected, Fox News’ ratings will be down 10-15% below it was back in 2007. I guess we’ll see who is right!
the news will stay popular for a while then will drop about a week after the election
I think that SNL will do better than in previous years for the remainder of the season. They are rumored to be in talks with Britney Spears who outside of Palin is one of the worlds biggest attention getters. People are used to watching them on Saturday night. But outside of watching the program live, SNL still makes bundles on internet streaming revenue and NBC has perfect the way the skits are distributed and the money they can make off them. I can see SNL beefing up its cast with some new female leads.
Interesting I see no discussion about the huge loss of viewership from disappointed republicans and conservatives. Media has always been in the tank for democrats, will still be. So, unlike disappointed democrats in 2000 and 2004, republicans and conservatives will have no reason to tune into any news agency at all except Fox, because who wants to listen to those idiots blather on about their socialist la la land. Likewise Oprah and all the other shows and stars that promoted those agendas. I predict this will be a very difficult time for NBC, CBS, ABC, NYTimes… This is the first time in my lifetime that I have seen our very free market system be called into question and so this is an unprecedented occurance. There are many many people in this country who are going to be drawing back from all things liberal – including sadly, many personal friendships.
Lydia Vann: if you’re going to drop your liberal friends after they didn’t do the same to you over the last 8 years, then they are better off without you.
Who cares about your liberal vs conservative arguments? This is a ratings site if you had not noticed. The ratings will go down whoever wins as the intense interest in politics will fade as the election will soon be decided