Regardless of who wins the election (and please let it end today) TV ratings for the news broadcasts covering the event are likely to be robust. Unlike many long term trends of TV watching (that you can examine in our Reference category), TV ratings for Presidential election nights have shown an upward trend over the last 44 years. The general election cycle pattern has been the significant drops for TV ratings during elections where a sitting President is up for re-election compared to the election before (’72 vs. ‘68, ‘84 vs. ‘80, ‘96 vs. ‘92, and ‘04 vs. ‘00). The notable exception to that was 1992 which saw a ratings spike as Bill Clinton defeated George HW Bush during his re-election attempt.
With the significant TV ratings increases in the debates this election cycle, it’s easy to predict record TV ratings tonight, any less than 45 million aggregate households would be a big surprise to me. And while I think news websites have improved significantly, an election is still something I think most Americans want to watch on television.
So it’s easy to project the real winner tonight being TV ratings of all kinds. As to predicting the winner of the election itself? It’s all in the Freshness.
Full Election Night TV Ratings Data, 1960-2004:
| Election Night | Networks | Combined Rating | Combined Households |
| 1960 | ABC, CBS, NBC | 65.7 | 29.796 |
| 1964 | ABC, CBS, NBC | 55.7 | 29.311 |
| 1968 | ABC, CBS, NBC | 58.5 | 34.076 |
| 1972 | ABC, CBS, NBC | 45.4 | 29.419 |
| 1976 | ABC, CBS, NBC | 51.6 | 36.739 |
| 1980 | ABC, CBS, NBC | 46.4 | 37.074 |
| 1984 | ABC, CBS, NBC | 35.9 | 30.479 |
| 1988 | ABC, CBS, NBC | 25.9 | 23.414 |
| 1992 | ABC, CBS, NBC | 39.8 | 36.900 |
| 1996 | ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN | 25.8 | 24.940 |
| 2000 | ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC, CNN, FOXNC, MSNBC | 40.2 | 40.914 |
| 2004 | ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, FOXNC, MSNBC | 34.5 | 37.856 |
Source: NIELSEN MEDIA RESEARCH; Nielsen Tunes into Politics 1992, NTI Television Audience, 1960 and 1964 NTI Pocketpieces.
OH boy! Another chart. I like charts. Did you guys like Perot? Just wondering, he liked charts.
Seriously, I’m expecting numbers like 2000 tonight. It should be interesting to see how many Republicans show up to vote. Some are saying that they might not show up as big as in 2004.
I’m expecting a McCain victory. I just don’t believe the country is more racist than people are willing to admit. The haters will be out voting. How many lied to pollsters?
Bad sentence. I meant “I just believe the country is more racist than people are willing to admit.”
Obama FTW!
I think tonight is going to end pretty early, so it’s not going to get huge ratings. Though the election of course will dominate.
Also, the graph says viewers, but is it tracking viewers or households?
Obama FTW!
You know, “FTW,” has two meanings. One is WTF backwards, and the other is “For The Win.” Who knows which people mean? In this case it’s amusing to think of it either way.
Interesting data point about just how early this could be over: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-will-we-know-by-7-pm.html
Regardless of political leanings (and thankfully, this painfully long campaign is coming to an end), I’d imagine that the coverage for all networks will pick up for the victory and concession speeches. Those will be historic, for sure.
Obama is not a guarantee, but I give him a 90% chance to win. Something tells me it’s gonna be a lot closer than the exit polls are saying.
It will end extremely early. If Obama takes Ohio, Florida or, the quickest to wrap up of the three, Virginia, he is already the winner. Kerry states + Iowa + one of those equals automatic victory. The networks will probably try to play it safe and keep it going, maybe even being lame enough to not call California/Oregon/Washington immediately after they close, but the election will be decided relatively early.
Definitely will have the highest ratings ever though, that’s for certain. Strange because it’s the most obvious blowout since 1996.
OBAMA ELECTED PRESIDENT YeaaaaH!! 333OBM 156MC!! Landslide win!! He got Pennsylvania, Florida and California!!