A new study from MAGNA reveals data about DVR viewing we don’t see ourselves from Nielsen. In particular, the age demo differences in DVR viewing between shows, and the average ages of DVR viewers.
Here are some highlights:
- Less than 30% of TV homes currently have DVRs, but they already account for 11% of national household ratings for the five broadcast networks, and 16% of adult 18-49 viewing.
- In DVR homes, roughly 40% of household viewing and 50% of adult 18-49 viewing were time-shifted.
- There was little correlation between rating size and the degree of DVR playback for a series.
- There was a clear link between program type and the amount of time-shifted viewing, regardless of actual audience size or network.
- Sci-fi and action dramas were the only genres where virtually all programs had above average DVR playback.
- Heroes, Fringe, Prison Break, Pushing Daisies, Chuck, Smallville, Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles, Supernatural, My Own Worst Enemy, and Ghost Whisperer each had a much greater percentage of DVR playback than the average primetime series.
- Medical dramas with serialized storylines, and a number of younger, female skewing serialized dramas had significantly higher than average DVR playback.
- Grey’s Anatomy, House, and Private Practice, as well as 90210, Lipstick Jungle, Gossip Girl, Privileged, One Tree Hill, Dirty Sexy Money, and Desperate Housewives had substantial amounts of DVR playback.
- Some comedies, such as The Office (the most time-shifted show on broadcast television), 30 Rock, How I Met Your Mother, My Name is Earl, and The Big Bang Theory had time-shifting levels well above average. Most others did not.
- Reality ran the gamut, with Survivor, Amazing Race, and America’s Next Top Model, having a higher percentage of time-shifting than most primetime series. Most other reality shows had much less DVR activity.
- Young adults time-shift their viewing at a much greater rate than older viewers.
- The average primetime broadcast series viewed live had more adults 65+ than adults 18-34 (20% vs. 18%). This was not the case among the time-shifted audience, where 31% of total viewers were adults 18-34 compared to just 6% adults 65+.
- The average 5-network median age was about 10 years younger for the DVR Playback audience than for the live audience (40 vs. 50). This 10-year gap held true for ABC, CBS, and NBC. FOX, which is somewhat younger to begin with, had a 5-year difference, while CW, which is far younger than the other networks, had just a 2-year difference between its live and time-shifted audience.
The report has a massive amount of data and you can download the entire report here.
Very interesting, seems like a lot of the audience advertisers want to reach are recording shows. The networks and the advertisers may not like time-shifted viewing, but without time-shifting would these people even be watching TV? Answering my own question I’d say no, they would not. As it is I know people in this age group who drop shows just because they only have time for one, maybe two shows to get involved with–and that’s with using a DVR. If it’s a must see show, they’ll buy the DVDs at the end of the season. There’s a lot of TV-time scheduling that goes on, lots of things in people’s queue’s.
Mr. Gorman
I know the topic of DVR,and how the Nielsen index is supposed to be inaccurate have been discussed to exhaustion in these blogs.But I´m one of the folks with a genuine desire to learn that you mentioned just now.Would the fact that this study was published by MAGNA be good for shows like PD and Chuck,in danger of being cancelled?
Thank you
Caio, our conclusion is that other than press releases for the networks the DVR numbers are not currently meaningful when it comes to the decision making process for renewals.
We’re very interested in the trends of DVR usage because it signals a sea change in the way the networks will make money. As the DVR population increases, sooner or later it will matter on a lot of levels, including renewals, etc. But for now, that does not seem to be the case.
Plus remember the “Fringe,” experiment shows that C+3 viewers watch the commercials when they’re only 60 seconds long.
That may come into play.
Thanks for posting this information! I’m extremely interested, mainly because I’m tiering the heck out of my busy TV dance card.
Frank J above has a really good point – my general rule of thumb is that I save my favorite shows for last…I might even decide to skip that episode because I know it’ll be on the set that I’ll inevitably buy next year.
Ironically, the ones that I watch within those first three days are actually the “easily disposable” ones, the ones I don’t really care if I miss.
As far as watching the commercials, it’s true, the only time I don’t FF, is during Fringe, when it takes longer to find the remote, FF, Rewind (because you’ve forgotten it’s only 60 secs) and hit play, than it does to just let the commercial pod play out.
Nick, what the Fringe experiment showed is that more people watch the commercials LIVE. With the 30 second skip button, Fringe is the easiest show to skip commercials with because with the exception of the weird 70 second breaks, the 60 and 90 tell you exactly how many times to push the button!
For the unwashed masses who won’t program their remotes, I can see where the shorter commercials are perhaps not worth the effort, but the success of the Fringe experiment doesn’t currently link to DVR viewing.
Robert, that’s weird. I was certain they tracked commercial viewing with the new boxes. So they know if a DVR show was watching the commercials or not.
I thought the Fringe experiment you’re referring to was FOX conducting those earlier focus groups in advance of the actual airing of the show, to determine *how* they were going to air it.
Unless you’re saying that the experiment is currently happening now?
Nick, Nielsen can measure commercial viewing. What I’m saying is, whatever happens on the DVR side isn’t that important — it’s that the delta between live Fringe viewing and live commercial viewing during Fringe is almost zero.
Joy, I’m pretty sure he’s talking about there being less commercials and much shorter breaks.
Robert, that is what I’m looking at C3 ratings. Fringe does better on C3 than SD3.
of course, I didn’t say that nobody who watches via DVR watches commercials. I’m just suggesting that if the difference was only the bump via DVR viewing, Fringe would already be airing 3 minute commercial breaks. What’s important is the live viewers are watching.
Robert, sorry but the important thing is the C3 viewing. It’s how commercial prices are being set this year. I still find your metrics to be a good sign of how shows are doing. A few do better with the C3 list than your metrics would indicate but for the most part your system is rather good and close to what different networks use.
The only thing I know they do that you don’t is “nightly,” internal ratings. I know you know that the night matters though. It’s how shows on your list like Numb3rs stick around despite their ratings on the overall index.
FRINGE is very interesting because it appears people with DVRs aren’t skipping the commercials as much as they do with other programs.
Nick, sorry, but *ALMOST* all of Fringe’s C+3 commerical viewing comes via the live viewing. Not ALL of it, but ALMOST all of it. You can’t convince me otherwise, even with data. If you feel that you can convince me of this with data, please do e-mail me the data.
That said, I agree that it *is* interesting even though I don’t think it’s especially meaningful today. one thing I believe it will likely result once more than half the homes have DVRs is even *more* commercial breaks, but breaks that are shorter in duration.