Comments on: In DVR Homes, 50% of Adult 18-49 Viewing is Time-Shifted

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 21:49:56 +0000

Nick, sorry, but *ALMOST* all of Fringe’s C+3 commerical viewing comes via the live viewing. Not ALL of it, but ALMOST all of it. You can’t convince me otherwise, even with data. If you feel that you can convince me of this with data, please do e-mail me the data.

That said, I agree that it *is* interesting even though I don’t think it’s especially meaningful today. one thing I believe it will likely result once more than half the homes have DVRs is even *more* commercial breaks, but breaks that are shorter in duration.

By: Nick C

Nick C — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 21:44:22 +0000

Robert, sorry but the important thing is the C3 viewing. It’s how commercial prices are being set this year. I still find your metrics to be a good sign of how shows are doing. A few do better with the C3 list than your metrics would indicate but for the most part your system is rather good and close to what different networks use.

The only thing I know they do that you don’t is “nightly,” internal ratings. I know you know that the night matters though. It’s how shows on your list like Numb3rs stick around despite their ratings on the overall index.

FRINGE is very interesting because it appears people with DVRs aren’t skipping the commercials as much as they do with other programs.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 21:37:20 +0000

of course, I didn’t say that nobody who watches via DVR watches commercials. I’m just suggesting that if the difference was only the bump via DVR viewing, Fringe would already be airing 3 minute commercial breaks. What’s important is the live viewers are watching.

By: Nick C

Nick C — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 21:34:28 +0000

Robert, that is what I’m looking at C3 ratings. Fringe does better on C3 than SD3.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 21:30:41 +0000

Nick, Nielsen can measure commercial viewing. What I’m saying is, whatever happens on the DVR side isn’t that important — it’s that the delta between live Fringe viewing and live commercial viewing during Fringe is almost zero.

Joy, I’m pretty sure he’s talking about there being less commercials and much shorter breaks.

By: joy

joy — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 21:28:06 +0000

I thought the Fringe experiment you’re referring to was FOX conducting those earlier focus groups in advance of the actual airing of the show, to determine *how* they were going to air it.

Unless you’re saying that the experiment is currently happening now?

By: Nick C

Nick C — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 21:22:47 +0000

Robert, that’s weird. I was certain they tracked commercial viewing with the new boxes. So they know if a DVR show was watching the commercials or not.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 21:17:25 +0000

Nick, what the Fringe experiment showed is that more people watch the commercials LIVE. With the 30 second skip button, Fringe is the easiest show to skip commercials with because with the exception of the weird 70 second breaks, the 60 and 90 tell you exactly how many times to push the button!

For the unwashed masses who won’t program their remotes, I can see where the shorter commercials are perhaps not worth the effort, but the success of the Fringe experiment doesn’t currently link to DVR viewing.

By: joy

joy — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 21:10:10 +0000

Thanks for posting this information! I’m extremely interested, mainly because I’m tiering the heck out of my busy TV dance card.

Frank J above has a really good point – my general rule of thumb is that I save my favorite shows for last…I might even decide to skip that episode because I know it’ll be on the set that I’ll inevitably buy next year.

Ironically, the ones that I watch within those first three days are actually the “easily disposable” ones, the ones I don’t really care if I miss.

As far as watching the commercials, it’s true, the only time I don’t FF, is during Fringe, when it takes longer to find the remote, FF, Rewind (because you’ve forgotten it’s only 60 secs) and hit play, than it does to just let the commercial pod play out.

By: Nick C

Nick C — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 20:44:46 +0000

Plus remember the “Fringe,” experiment shows that C+3 viewers watch the commercials when they’re only 60 seconds long.

That may come into play.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 20:21:22 +0000

Caio, our conclusion is that other than press releases for the networks the DVR numbers are not currently meaningful when it comes to the decision making process for renewals.

We’re very interested in the trends of DVR usage because it signals a sea change in the way the networks will make money. As the DVR population increases, sooner or later it will matter on a lot of levels, including renewals, etc. But for now, that does not seem to be the case.

By: Caio

Caio — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 19:22:11 +0000

Mr. Gorman

I know the topic of DVR,and how the Nielsen index is supposed to be inaccurate have been discussed to exhaustion in these blogs.But I´m one of the folks with a genuine desire to learn that you mentioned just now.Would the fact that this study was published by MAGNA be good for shows like PD and Chuck,in danger of being cancelled?
Thank you

By: FrankJ

FrankJ — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 18:30:39 +0000

Very interesting, seems like a lot of the audience advertisers want to reach are recording shows. The networks and the advertisers may not like time-shifted viewing, but without time-shifting would these people even be watching TV? Answering my own question I’d say no, they would not. As it is I know people in this age group who drop shows just because they only have time for one, maybe two shows to get involved with–and that’s with using a DVR. If it’s a must see show, they’ll buy the DVDs at the end of the season. There’s a lot of TV-time scheduling that goes on, lots of things in people’s queue’s.