It can’t be easy being a network scheduler. I know it seems like everyone and their mother thinks they can do a better job. But some of those people are the same people who don’t think ABC should cancel Pushing Daisies, even though it’s ABC’s worst performing scripted show. It’s not easy being a network scheduler.
A lot has already been written about Fox’s new show Dollhouse airing on Fridays beginning February 13, 2009. Friday the thirteenth! Fridays has been a particularly barren night when it comes to broadcast television viewing. A lot of people will say that’s because everyone goes out on Friday. It’s true that less people watch TV on Fridays, but it’s not half as many as on Thursday, it’s more like 85% as many. The problem for the broadcast networks, especially among younger viewers is that even those who stay home and are watching TV, there are many more of them watching the programs on other channels besides ABC, CBS, CW, Fox, and NBC.
The networks must accept that less people watch TV on Fridays and Saturdays. Some of that just shows that the TV advertising business still works (at least they will certainly claim that to be the case) and that some of those missing people aren’t out drinking like fishes, but are at the newly released movies that the networks have been advertising. But the networks do not have to accept that they can’t command more share of the viewers who are watching TV to Friday nights.
I can’t fault the networks for trying to find programming that will capture bigger share on Fridays. But I also couldn’t really fault them for pretty much abandoning it completely in favor of less expensive unscripted programming (say, as ABC has done).
But what about Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles moving to Fridays to be joined by the new Dollhouse? I’m not very optimistic about this working out very well for these shows or for Fox, but I don’t know that I’d do anything differently either if I were responsible for scheduling and only got to pick when the shows aired and not what shows would be on.
I’ve written about buy-in before, and it’s very clear to me that for series television, with rare exception, plots and premises that require a high degree of suspension of disbelief do not become hits. And by “rare exception” I can think of only one show currently still on the air that meets the criteria: LOST. That’s all I have. One show. The premise of Dollhouse in short is that there is a group of people who have had their memories wiped clean and can be imprinted with all kinds of personalities to be use to do…various things in various situations. While there’s no doubt in my mind the premise can and will find an audience, there is significant doubt in my mind that it could be a large audience — regardless of what night it airs.
On Fridays it literally stands no chance of a huge audience. I see little opportunity for it to attract audiences as large as what CBS gets with its procedurals. Could it find 8 million viewers? Sure. Keep them? Not so sure. Could it pull a 2.5 or higher rating among 18-49 year olds? That’s definitely in the realm of possibility. Sure, it’s possible, but the question is, even if it does, given the cost for such shows is Fox better off economically doing that than trying to find some unscripted cheap content that will pull a 1.8 rating among 18-49 year olds?
One problem is that while it’s very inexpensive to test and learn on the Internet, doing so in broadcast television is not cheap. If Fox wanted to know the high bar for “what could be done on a Friday?” it would air new episodes of House there a couple of times. It won’t do that simply because it’s *already* sure that doing so would pull lower numbers than airing House sometime Monday-Thursday and the goal is to make as much money as possible. So even as a test, you won’t likely see a new episode of House on Fridays (or a new episode of Grey’s Anatomy on ABC, or a new CSI on CBS, or a new episode of The Office on NBC).
I’m not very optimistic for Dollhouse on Fridays, though I agree with those who suggest that Fox can be more patient with it on Fridays than it could if it put it on as the lead-in for 24. But with the goal of making the most money, expensive scripted shows like Dollhouse and Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles don’t seem well married with Friday nights (and though I am a TSCC fan, I am not optimistic for a 3rd season of TSCC regardless of when Fox airs it).
What would I do? I’m sure this won’t make me any friends, but with the goal of making the most money, I think at least during the American Idol run I’d milk it way more than Fox has ever done. I know there are some offshoots that cover Idol in syndication, but I’d turn Fridays into a two-hour coverage of the American Idol contest. I’d cover American Idol like ESPN covers football from 11am-1pm on Sundays. Clips, talking heads, interviews, human interest stories and predictions. It would cost practically nothing to make and whether you or I would watch it, there’s obviously an audience for it. I wouldn’t watch it, but I never caught the Idol bug. But it’s not lost on me that millions have. A couple of hours treating it like ESPN treats the NFL is exactly what I would do. And that’s how I’d program Fridays January through May if I were running Fox.
One final note: a lot of people are squawking about Dollhouse not getting any promotion by airing after American Idol. It’s not a foregone conclusion that it won’t air once or twice after Idol. I’ll be at least a little surprised if that doesn’t happen.
Fortunately for fans of scripted programming (and I am one of those) and especially Joss Whedon fans, I’m just a blogger, not a programmer at Fox! But when it comes to making money, I like the prospects for the American Idol coverage better than Fox’s current plans for Friday nights starting February 13. I’m sure you have your own ideas…
I’m not sure two hours of Idol coverage would work on Fridays. The shows in syndication are not two hours long, that’s for sure, and I doubt they do anywhere near what FOX would need to consider Fridays acceptable. And comparing Idol coverage to ESPN doesn’t work, because ESPN has lots of games to cover, not just one.
But there still is the question of what to do with it. While I’m pretty sure that Dollhouse and T:SCC will not get good enough ratings to pay for the shows, they do have a good shot of challenging CBS’s demos. Nothing guaranteed, and I don’t know that it will be enough.
Idol extra or whatever it is airs syndicated all over the place at different times without promo from Fox. ESPN has multiple games to cover but they are games between two teams. And they still dedicate hours long coverage when it’s just the super bowl. Idol is one contest but there are many contestants. I still think it would be more profitable even if only 4 million watched.
one thing the
scritee(the iPhone has some downsides…) scripted shows do have potential for DVD revenue. Important in the case of Dollhouse since it’s a Fox show. There wouldn’t be any DVD opp with my proposalWhat I would do with Friday nights is rerun popular shows. Period. CBS just had some of it’s best numbers on Friday’s with an NCIS repeat. Just keep doing that.
As far as Fox is concerned, Fridays are where shows are sent to die. Fastlane doing “ok”, but not well enough on Wednesday? Move it to Friday, burn off the eps, then cancel it.
Justice not performing up to par on Mondays? Move it to Friday, burn off the eps, then cancel it.
Hire Joss Whedon, but never like what he comes up with? Air it on Friday, hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. Then cancel it.
It seems the hope Fox always has is that the sci-fi crowd doesn’t go out on Friday, so this is their best shot at programming (and, apparently, the Sci-Fi network thinks the same thing) that night. And patience rarely pays off. A show like “Dollhouse” or “Firefly” isn’t going to “grow” unless Nielsen happens to hit on someone that falls into the niche… which apparently doesn’t happen often.
The only other hope is for media attention to be hot enough where there is the perception that the show hits the zeitgeist sweet spot or it gets enough critical buzz to be considered a “prestige” hit for the network. I doubt that will happen with Dollhouse (and Terminator is so average that it doesn’t deserve it).
But, given Fox’s track record, it is over for both of these shows. They have already written them off and they are just something to take up space on Friday nights… until they can re-air a “Nutty Professor” movie and get better numbers.
i dont think they will get ghost whisperer numbers, but if fox comes in second they could get renewed
The only successful show Fox has ever launched on Fridays is the X-files, and even that show didn’t really take off until it was moved to Sundays. Fox has never been able to program the night, and I really don’t expect that to change now.
It amuses me that people think shows are sent to Friday to “die.” Obviously FOX feels that a Sci-Fi block may be capable of doing something on Friday. All they want is for these shows to compete and get 2nd place numbers for their time slots. If they can do that they will be given time to grow.
I don’t see why they can’t. Friday Night has only CBS for competition.
I’m not so sure. You could’ve taken second place in the demo with a 1.6 in the 8pm hour and a 1.9 would’ve garnered second place at 9pm. I don’t see Fox being patient unless those shows (which are much more expensive to make than 5th Grader for Fox, and SuperNanny for ABC) do better than a 2.0. And unless Dollhouse is doing better than a 2.3 among 18-49 year olds, I don’t see Fox being incredibly patient with it.
“And by “rare exception” I can think of only one show currently still on the air that meets the criteria: LOST. That’s all I have. One show.”
Heroes is still a demo hit.
“What would I do? I’m sure this won’t make me any friends, but with the goal of making the most money, I think at least during the American Idol run I’d milk it way more than Fox has ever done.”
So you want to turn AI into FOX’s version of “Who Wants To Be A Millionaire”? Or, for a more recent example, “Deal Or No Deal?”
“It amuses me that people think shows are sent to Friday to “die.”
It amuses me too, because it’s the truth. Well, in the case of FOX, it’s the truth. As someone has already pointed out, FOX has not had a Friday show become a hit in more than a decade. In fact, no new show, hit or not, has survived premiering on Fridays in over a decade.
If Fox really wanted to take a big risk for Fri night, they could just air AI that night for 2 hours, never mind a recap show. It seems to me that winning the night isn’t really an interest of theirs, but I can see them landing a second place finish with that sci fi combo.
One thing that I think is going to work against both shows is the fact that there is so much negative buzz about their prospects. If cancellation is a foregone conclusion for both of them, why in the world would anyone get invested in either show?
Andrea, Heroes is fading fast, but fair enough: that’s two.
As for “Millionaire-ing Idol”, it’s a fair point, but I look at Idol as far more a contest a la the NFL (where people could potentially…and actually do gamble on the outcomes) so only sort of.
I don’t believe the Friday show would take away from the regular two airings any more than I think ESPN programming dozens of hours a week of NFL programming dilutes whatever its Monday night football ratings are. In the end, it’s all about the competition (which I think makes Idol a bit different than Millionaire and DoND).
I actually think that this is a good move considering Sci-Fi channel’s airing of the last season of BSG at 10pm on Fridays. There is huge overlap in the fan base of Wheedon (and thus Summer Glau) and BSG and I think these shows on FOX will act as a strong lead-in…
I Put Dollhouse in thursday night:
20h- Bones
21- Dollhouse
And Terminator
Sunday – 20hpm
What a lot of people are ignoring is that FOX may have LEARNED something from previous runs. Look at FIREFLY. The show was treated poorly by running the pilot last, etc. The ratings weren’t good even for a friday. If memory serves the show continued to finish in 3rd place for the time slot. It did poorly all around.
Then it was released on DVD. FIREFLY has done so well on DVD sales that if SERENITY had never happened then FOX may have picked the show back up just like it did with FAMILY GUY. FIREFLY is still selling well and is about to be released of Blu Ray with high hopes.
FOX is not going to treat DOLLHOUSE the same way. In fact because of the previous Whedon success after cancellation DOLLHOUSE will be given more time to grow and more promotional considerations. I know from talking with people at FOX that they consider FIREFLY a massive failure on THEIR part. They aren’t likely to make the same mistake twice.
I hope the shows do well, but I don’t think their ratings matter – I think Fringe’s do. It’s highly unlikely that Terminator, Dollhouse and Fringe (*barf… sorry, I can’t stand it) will ALL get pick-ups, especially with that new Virtuality project coming along next year.
If only Terminator would have gotten the post-AI spot last winter… but no, the brilliant minds over at FOX promote the hell out of it, give it one good lead-in and then put it up against the last half hour of DWTS in favor of The Moment of Truth -_- BRILLIANT!
Do you think this is Fox’s way of getting rid of Terminator:SCC?
Or is it a way to keep it because you cant expect great ratings on a friday?
I like your idea of an idol coverage show, but not on the broadcast network. FOX has to protect the idol brand, and having that many hours of broadcast primetime coverage could kill the big event feel of idol. I think an idol coverage show would work better on a fox owned cable network, (fx, or even better fox news) This says idol is so big other networks feel the need to cover it. How would I program fridays: I would pick up the broadcast rights to regular season NHL games for cheap after it NBC’s contract is up, and air hockey games. It won’t rate huge nationally but its cheap.
If memory serves me correctly, Fox used to air Idol specials on Fridays (extra auditions, those William Hung centered shows). I wonder how they did?
Doesn’t anyone remember TGIF. Friday was once the arguably biggest night of TV during the week.
Add Fringe to the list of hit shows that you must supsend disbelief.
Also, T:SCC isn’t that expensive of a show to make as everyone thinks. It has the same budge as Pushing Daisies.
Corey, Fringe has pulled decent numbers for sure, but unlike the PR team at Fox, I’m not ready to declare it a “hit”.
@Mike, I remember when Friday TV was a big deal. I think the proliferation of cable/satellite did it in more than anything.
Robert, correct me if I’m wrong, but hasn’t Fringe sustained better numbers than Heroes this year?
Fringe is a top 20 C3 show. I’m not sure if that is a “hit,” or not. It used to be that top 20 was important.
Nick, how did Heroes do vs. Fringe in the C+3 ratings among 18-49 year olds for the week ending October 26 (last week that both shows aired). In terms of live+SD 18-49 year old viewing, Heroes #17 was slightly ahead of Fringe #19 that week (5.194 million vs. 5.167 million). For me personally at this point “hit” is routinely over 6 million in the demo, but that’s a very subjective line draw on my part.
Outside of sports, it’s not a very long list.
Fringe may not be the definition of a hit, but it’s definitely an important show to FOX. A lot of their shows are running long on seasons. They need something new working it’s way up as the older shows start to wind down.
Frank, I agree and would be very surprised if Fox wasn’t happy w/the results so far.
I also have a slightly different take on how the networks are looking at this. Granted, I have no inside knowledge, just my guess on how if money drives networks, then money was the discussion. What equals money? 24 & House. What also equals money? I would imagine beating out another network in the demo on any given night. With the pairing FOX just put on Monday’s, I have concerns for both Heroes and Chuck. The CBS comedies…those things are bullet proof. As is, apparently, Gossip Girl. But NBC is vulnerable. Chuck will not fair well against House, or at least lose out to it in the demo even if it retains it’s audience, and I would imagine Kevin Reilly actually knows what ails Heroes more than NBC does right now.
FOX putting TSCC and Dollhouse on Friday may have it’s downsides for both of those shows, plus the stigma of Friday night, but there is also the chance of an upside, which is better than no chance on Monday. I doubt either would have faired well on Mondays come the Spring, thus leaving FOX in fourth place. Now FOX can jump NBC on Monday, and probably claim second place in the demo on Friday. Not a bad bit of chess if it works.
Frank, Nick C:
FOX not giving Dollhouse the coveted AI spot to me is a show of no-confidence. Why not pair Fringe with TSCC on Fridays? Well, because FOX Friday is where shows go to die. FOX has more faith in Fringe because of its demo numbers; Lie To Me has super buzz behind its pilot; that’s why those two shows got the AI slots.
No doubt both Fringe and LTM will get hits from AI, but how much audience will they retain? AI made House a hit–will it do so for both or one or none of these shows?
Dollhouse is DOA. FOX will be ashamed if Supernanny or NCIS repeats beat Dollhouse (and I think it has a chance)
Andrea, FOX is currently trying to figure out when to air the pilot for DOLLHOUSE, and I’m under the impression it will be after Idol.
I was about to say, I read something online the other day about FOX mulling over an Idol lead-in for Dollhouse for the premiere. Then they’d shift it to Friday.
I think Dollhouse will launch with under 5 million viewers and below a 2.0 in the demo, from the day announced Fox has tried to kill this show. The show itself seems promising in terms of quality but Terminator won’t be much of a lead-in.
If there’s a show people want to watch they’ll watch it, whatever night it is on. Saturday and Friday nights being a wasteland for the networks is more self-fulfilling prophecy than anything else in my opinion.
I have a feeling that all the negative press going on about Dollhouse will hurt it more than the Friday timeslot. I suspect there are going to be a fair amount of people who have picked up on this vibe and will not tune in at all in order to protect themselves from a Moonlight/Firefly heartbreak again.
I think the press will be positive once we get closer to launch. The show will debut after IDOL (I heard it again this morning). I’m going to guess 11M to 12M viewers for that episode. If they can retain half of that to Friday they will be fine.
All the people that think FOX is sending the project to Friday to die don’t understand the passion that Peter and Kevin have for Eliza and yes, Joss. They are extremely happy with the latest scripts coming in. The show just has to survive IDOL season on Friday. If it does it will benefit from a stronger lead in on a more popular TV night. Then again it may stay on Fridays if it can garner good ratings there. It is NOT impossible.
Plus they’ve already started promoting the show. Commercials are already airing.
Just because a show doesn’t lead out from Idol, doesn’t mean it won’t be promoted during Idol. There’s going to be a lot of key demo eyes watching T:SCC & DLH spots.
What FOX should do in my opinion:
JANUARY
Sunday, Jan. 11 and Jan. 18:
8:00-10:00 PM 24 (Season Premiere)
Sunday, Jan. 25:
7:00 PM KING OF THE HILL
7:30 PM AMERICAN DAD
8:00 PM THE SIMPSONS
8:30 PM FAMILY GUY
9:00 PM 24 (Do you remember The Sopranos in this timeslot? With SNF over, more male viewers available for this kind of show at sunday nights)
**************************
Monday, Jan. 12, 19 and 26
8:00 PM AMERICAN IDOL (AUD.)
9:00 PM LIE TO ME (i don’t belive that much on this show!)
Tuesday, Jan. 13, 20 and 27
8:00 PM AMERICAN IDOL (AUD.)
9:00 PM FRINGE
Wednesday, Jan. 14:
8:00 PM AMERICAN IDOL (AUD.)
9:00 PM HOUSE
Wednesday, Jan. 21 and 28
8:00 PM BONES
9:00 PM HOUSE
Thursdays, Jan. 15, 22 and 29
8:00 PM AMERICAN IDOL (AUD.)
9:00 PM DOLLHOUSE (Season premiere)
*****************************
FEBRUARY
Monday, Feb. 2
8:00 PM AMERICAN IDOL (Hollywood Round)
9:00 PM LIE TO ME
Tuesday, Feb. 3
8:00 PM AMERICAN IDOL (Hollywood Round)
9:00 PM FRINGE
Wednesday, Feb.4
8:00 PM BONES
9:00 PM HOUSE
Thursday, Feb. 5
8:00 PM AMERICAN IDOL (Top 24 Chosen)
9:00 PM DOLLHOUSE
Monday, Feb. 9
8:00 – 10:00 PM AMERICAN IDOL (Top 12 Men Perform)
Tuesday, Feb. 10
8:00 – 10:00 PM AMERICAN IDOL (Top 12 Women Perform)
Wednesday, Feb. 11
8:00 PM BONES
9:00 PM HOUSE
Thursday, Feb. 12
8:00 PM AMERICAN IDOL (Top 24 Results)
9:00 PM DOLLHOUSE
Monday, Feb. 16 and 23
8:00 PM AMERICAN IDOL (Top 10 and Top 8 Men Perform)
9:00 PM LIE TO ME
Tuesday, Feb. 17 and 24
8:00 PM AMERICAN IDOL (Top 10 and Top 8 Women Perform)
9:00 PM FRINGE
Wednesday, Feb. 18 and 25
8:00 PM BONES
9:00 PM HOUSE
Thursday, Feb. 19 and 26
8:00 PM AMERICAN IDOL (Top 20 Results and Top 12 Revealed)
9:00 PM DOLLHOUSE
***********************
MARCH
Monday, beggining March 2
8:00 PM BONES
9:00 PM LIE TO ME
Tuesday, beggining March 3
8:00 PM AMERICAN IDOL (Performance show)
9:00 PM FRINGE
Wednesday, beggining March 4
8:00 PM THE HOLE IN THE WALL CELEBRITY EDITION (season premiere) ???!!
8:30 PM AMERICAN IDOL (Results show)
9:00 PM HOUSE
Thursday, Feb. 12
8:00 PM DOLLHOUSE (Time Period Premiere)
9:00 PM Hell’s Kitchen (season Premiere)
How do ratings account for online viewership? TSCC is consistently among the top episodes on hulu.com, and can also be seen on fox.com. Given the sci-fi fan base of the show, viewers are much more likely to be seeing it online than being slaves to a network timeslot.
Kiza, I agree the shows’ viewers will be more likely than the general viewing population to watch online, but that isn’t good news for the show at all. TV advertising still pays the bills. Online/Hulu are growing, but on a by-show basis, there’s not much revenue generated via online viewing yet.