The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you’re reading this after November 25, 2008 click here to see the latest list.
11/20 Update: James Hibberd at THRfeed reports that ABC will order no more Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone or Dirty Sexy Money episodes. Stick a fork in them, they’re done. Life on Mars has received an order for four additional episodes and will go on hiatus beginning December 11 and return on January 28 (a Wednesday) at 10pm after LOST.
In a topsy turvy week for the Renew/Cancel Index, it seems like the future of more shows became uncertain than became certain. Multiple versions of ABCs winter schedule made available online to advertisers showed a variety of outcomes for Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone Dirty Sexy Money, and Life On Mars. As I write this the fate of those shows all still officially hangs in the balance.
It seemed pretty definitive that NBC’s Lipstick Jungle and My Own Worst Enemy were cancelled last week. Lipstick Jungle was a surprise to no one. My Own Worst Enemy getting cancelled at this point in the season was a surprise to me. However, now there is doubt about the fate of Lipstick Jungle. Is it entirely crazy fan fantasy egged on by a desperate Brooke Shields? We may know soon enough.
To summarize, at this point Pushing Daisies (ABC), Eli Stone(ABC), Dirty Sexy Money (ABC), are cancelled. Life On Mars (ABC) has survived for now, four additional episodes have been ordered. Lipstick Jungle (NBC) is at high risk of Cancellation by January. I’d say the prognosis looks grim for *each* of them, but because ABC may not want to axe so many shows, perhaps not for *all* of them. All other shows seem safe through May.
The distortion for Fox show Indexes from the World Series which temporarily boosted Fox’s 18-49 average seems to be settling out, the Fox weekly 18-49 average this week was not too far below its season to date average, so there is unlikely to be too much more settling. It’s almost time to worry again about 2009-10 renewal for Fox shows with low Index numbers.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
And for folks thinking “No way would the networks cancel all of those shows”, there were 25 scripted shows cancelled in the 2007-8 season. That is, shows that ran during 2007-8 that did not come back for 2008-9. These same networks cancelled at least 30 scripted shows that aired during 2006-7, although that’s just from a quick look at that season to date list that could suffer from a number of possible errors on my part, but the magnitude of shows cancelled was similar.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancellation by January, Cancellation by May, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY (1) | CW | 303 | 1,370 | 0.22 | final 11/23 |
| VALENTINE (1) | CW | 377 | 1,370 | 0.28 | final 11/23 |
| CRUSOE (2) | NBC | 1,605 | 3,730 | 0.43 | 13 ep mini-series |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,790 | 0.55 | cancelled |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE (2) (6) | NBC | 2,190 | 3,730 | 0.59 | cancelled? |
| THE EX-LIST (2) | CBS | 2,443 | 4,080 | 0.60 | cancelled |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,790 | 0.62 | off schedule |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS (2) | CW | 885 | 1,370 | 0.65 | |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,644 | 4,090 | 0.65 | cancelled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,688 | 4,090 | 0.66 | cancelled |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,731 | 4,090 | 0.67 | cancelled |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,787 | 4,090 | 0.68 | final 13 ep season |
| LIFE – WED ONLY (4) | NBC | 2,556 | 3,730 | 0.69 | now Wed |
| OLD CHRISTINE (3) | CBS | 2,812 | 4,080 | 0.69 | |
| THE GAME (2) | CW | 985 | 1,370 | 0.72 | |
| NUMB3RS (2) | CBS | 2,948 | 4,080 | 0.72 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,012 | 4,080 | 0.74 | |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,824 | 3,790 | 0.75 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,791 | 3,730 | 0.75 | |
| LAW AND ORDER | NBC | 2,915 | 3,730 | 0.78 | |
| PRISON BREAK (5) | FOX | 3,095 | 3,790 | 0.82 | |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,350 | 4,080 | 0.82 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER (2) | CBS | 3,453 | 4,080 | 0.85 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 3,162 | 3,730 | 0.85 | cancelled |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 3,273 | 3,730 | 0.88 | |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,600 | 4,090 | 0.88 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,606 | 4,080 | 0.88 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,212 | 1,370 | 0.88 | |
| CHUCK | NBC | 3,317 | 3,730 | 0.89 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,658 | 4,080 | 0.90 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,669 | 4,090 | 0.90 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,674 | 4,090 | 0.90 | |
| SHOWS BELOW THIS LINE LAST SEASON WERE TYPICALLY RENEWED | |||||
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,525 | 3,730 | 0.95 | |
| PRIVATE PRACTICE | ABC | 3,971 | 4,090 | 0.97 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,053 | 4,080 | 0.99 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 4,067 | 4,080 | 1.00 | |
| BONES | FOX | 4,275 | 3,790 | 1.13 | |
| THE BIG BANG THEORY | CBS | 4,679 | 4,080 | 1.15 | |
| AMERICAN DAD | FOX | 4,420 | 3,790 | 1.17 | |
| THE MENTALIST | CBS | 4,804 | 4,080 | 1.18 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,842 | 4,080 | 1.19 | |
| BROTHERS & SISTERS | ABC | 4,857 | 4,090 | 1.19 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 4,857 | 4,080 | 1.19 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,601 | 3,790 | 1.21 | not renewed |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,601 | 3,730 | 1.23 | final season |
| HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER | CBS | 5,118 | 4,080 | 1.25 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 5,227 | 4,080 | 1.28 | |
| CRIMINAL MINDS | CBS | 5,243 | 4,080 | 1.29 | |
| LAW AND ORDER:SVU | NBC | 4,818 | 3,730 | 1.29 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 5,011 | 3,790 | 1.32 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,820 | 1,370 | 1.33 | |
| 30 ROCK | NBC | 5,155 | 3,730 | 1.38 | |
| SIMPSONS | FOX | 5,691 | 3,790 | 1.50 | |
| GOSSIP GIRL | CW | 2,079 | 1,370 | 1.52 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,681 | 3,730 | 1.52 | |
| FAMILY GUY | FOX | 5,906 | 3,790 | 1.56 | |
| 90210 | CW | 2,139 | 1,370 | 1.56 | |
| TWO AND A HALF MEN | CBS | 6,421 | 4,080 | 1.57 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,988 | 3,730 | 1.61 | |
| SMALLVILLE | CW | 2,223 | 1,370 | 1.62 | |
| ONE TREE HILL | CW | 2,252 | 1,370 | 1.64 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,709 | 3,790 | 1.77 | |
| CSI | CBS | 7,261 | 4,080 | 1.78 | |
| DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES | ABC | 7,969 | 4,090 | 1.95 | |
| GREY’S ANATOMY | ABC | 8,163 | 4,090 | 2.00 | |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. Note: Only shows that have premiered during the 2008-9 broadcast season are on this list.
(1) CW MRC Sunday – The CW leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). 11/20 Update: That experiment is now at an end, the MRC shows will air for the final time on 11/23/08 and the CW will begin airing repeats and movies starting on 11/30/08.
(2) Friday night – Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. My grading technique on shows with histories on Friday (only Numb3rs and Ghost Whisperer) is that until they reach their Index values from last season they still are at risk of non-renewal. FYI, Numb3rs Index was 0.76 last year, so it’s close to safe by that measure.
(3) New Advs of Old Christine: Perhaps CBS is willing to accept low numbers in its new timeslot indefinitely to build a new “comedy block”. Perhaps CBS will return Christine to the warmth and safety of Monday night and cut Worst Week or Gary Unmarried loose. And perhaps not.
(4) Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
(5) Prison Break. Evidence that this is the final season for the show is mounting.
(6) Lipstick Jungle. While Lipstick Jungle has moved from Wednesday to Friday, this is the season to date average for both nights. If, somehow, Lipstick Jungle survives past January, I will include only its Friday average going forward. Until then, it’s not worth the work.
How did we come up with our list? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger. We’re not sure what the magic number will be this season, but I’m very confident that our index will still indicate the shows most likely to be cancelled compared to those less likely to be cancelled.
—————————————————————-
For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However the closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it’s in of being cancelled or not returning when it’s run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM’S WAY (1) | CW | 353 | 1,370 | 0.26 | final 11/23 |
| AMERICA’S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,453 | 3,730 | 0.39 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,882 | 4,090 | 0.46 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 1,723 | 3,730 | 0.46 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 1,961 | 4,090 | 0.48 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,836 | 3,790 | 0.48 | |
| SUPERNANNY | ABC | 2,140 | 4,090 | 0.52 | |
| 48 HOURS MYSTERY | CBS | 2,148 | 4,080 | 0.53 | |
| DON’T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 2,003 | 3,790 | 0.53 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,175 | 4,090 | 0.53 | cancelled |
| COPS | FOX | 2,142 | 3,790 | 0.57 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,184 | 3,790 | 0.58 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,559 | 4,090 | 0.63 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,469 | 3,790 | 0.65 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,537 | 3,790 | 0.67 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,543 | 3,730 | 0.68 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,896 | 4,090 | 0.71 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED | NBC | 2,815 | 3,730 | 0.75 | |
| KITCHEN NIGHTMARES | FOX | 2,957 | 3,790 | 0.78 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,395 | 4,090 | 0.83 | |
| STYLISTA | CW | 1,224 | 1,370 | 0.89 | |
| AMAZING RACE 13 | CBS | 4,199 | 4,080 | 1.03 | |
| 60 MINUTES | CBS | 4,420 | 4,080 | 1.08 | |
| BIGGEST LOSER 6 | NBC | 4,139 | 3,730 | 1.11 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 4,849 | 4,090 | 1.19 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,428 | 3,730 | 1.19 | |
| EXTREME MAKEOVER:HM ED-8P | ABC | 4,914 | 4,090 | 1.20 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,636 | 4,080 | 1.38 | |
| DANCING WITH THE STARS | ABC | 5,751 | 4,090 | 1.41 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 5,778 | 3,730 | 1.55 | |
| THE OT | FOX | 6,123 | 3,790 | 1.62 | |
| AMERICA’S TOP MODEL | CW | 2,515 | 1,370 | 1.84 | |
| NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL | NBC | 8,653 | 3,730 | 2.32 |
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Wow. Eli Stone is now the lowest rated scripted show on ABC. Yet it’s the one that will be saved? I will never understand that.
This is kind of a random question, but does anyone know if new episodes of valentine/easy money going to air? They play the repeats every Sunday night and it seems to me like they might as well put the new ones on.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
I want Ugly Betty to stay!!!!
Bill – last season for 2007-2008, how many shows were cancelled by the end?
Nice to see Samantha Who? moving back toward the green. I’ll never understand it if ABC cancels Life on Mars at this point and leaves Eli Stone.
I’m still surprised NBC was so quick with the hook on My Own Worst Enemy. Didn’t give it enough time to gain an audience.
argh…
Calling all Nielson families…
Calling all Nielson families…
Watch TSCC!
I don’t get it. I thought that Pushing Daisies was doing a lot worse than Eli Stone. So how come the list now shows Eli Stone higher in the danger zone than PD and Dirty Sexy Money?
I guess because PD got a slight climb in the ratings due to the Obama program that aired on every channel during a new PD episode? Over all, the ratings are still smaller. I guess it also got a climb in the demo ratings?
Julia, it has been a boost that it hasn’t aired at all. ELI STONE has just done worse and worse. Because it keeps doing worse it dropped below PUSHING DAISIES. However if PD doesn’t do as well as it did the last time it aired (a season high with only Obama against it) then it’s likely to drop in the index next week.
The key here really is that ES has just dropped to abysmal rating levels.
Julia, Nick is right. The math in this case is pretty simple for Eli relative to PD. PD’s average didn’t go down because it didn’t air. I don’t know the exact 18-49 viewer number for Eli for the week because we don’t see 18-49 weekly data by #of viewers and we don’t see enough decimals of the ratings point to calculate it accurately. But it had a 1.8/5 so in round numbers, Eli had 1.68 million 18-49 viewers last week, since that was well below its season average, it pulled the average down noticeably week over week.
Well i’ll be one of the few watching PD on wednesday night. Wish i was a Nielsen family than i could help raise that 18-49 demo.
maahem, ” last season for 2007-2008, how many shows were cancelled by the end?” is a damn good question. So good, I’m going to put the answer in the post above as well.
There were 25 scripted shows cancelled in the 2007-8 season. That is, shows that ran that did not come back for 2008-9.
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/08/27/the-renewcancel-index-our-predictor-of-show-futures/4800
While 2007-8 was a unique year because of the strike, it’s not clear that the strike may have caused the networks to cancel *fewer* shows than they otherwise might have. I’ll look back at the past years we have data for tomorrow and see what their cancellation numbers were.
Chuck will be renewed almost predictably, it’s like one of NBC’s new “babies”.
Life I see getting renewed also, but it will be a last chance renewal.
“Nice to see Samantha Who? moving back toward the green. I’ll never understand it if ABC cancels Life on Mars at this point and leaves Eli Stone.”
Samantha Who? moves back into the green thanks in part to “Dancing with the Stars” not to be confused with the Circus of the Stars specials of yesteryear. I say this cause someone like to use the later title to tag DWTS. As much as I like LoM the reason why that goes and Eli Stone stays is because of the money. It seems that Eli Stone is cheaper to hang on to that Mars.
We shall find out who stays and goes tomorrow and then some.
Nice to see Heroes still in the green…Tim K., Plan that series EXIT some time NEXT YEAR!!! I wish people would get that message. Also watch how the ‘24′ TV movie does this coming Sunday. That sure is going to hurt Heroes as well. Good thing that DWTS is off during the winter.
Meanwhile I am hoping that the UK version of LoM gets a DVD release. That and ‘Ashes to Ashes.’
No wonder cable is gaining.
I am a little confused I see that Ghost Whisperer is now in the green. I was just wondering if their chances of being renewed were good?
Sorry one more thing. Is there a place or someone who could tell me what the renewal/cancelation index means? meaning what do the numbers mean? Meaning if Ghost Whisperer is at .85 is that good or bad?
At this point, the only way GW doesn’t get renewed is if Jennifer Love Hewitt wants out. Based on the ratings so far, it’s a lock for next year.
It probably won’t make it to the 0.92 level on the index, but the threshold is lower for Friday nights. Even at it’s current level, it’s the highest rated show on Friday night in both overall viewers and the demo.
Jennifer, Sorry one more thing. Is there a place or someone who could tell me what the renewal/cancelation index means?
Read the text under the color-coded list, especially the paragraph that starts with “How do we come up with this list?” Also read note #2, since it is about Friday night.
You mentioned in an article that no-one cared about MOWE. You are wrong LJ may have received 1500 signatures in less than a week but MOWE is at 2100 in less than a week. Check for yourself:
We, the undersigned, have greatly enjoyed the new NBC TV show, My Own Worst Enemy. We are upset that the series has been cancelled. We ask that you continue to produce and air the show so that it will have a chance at growing a larger audience.
The timeslot is obviously not working. Why not try another? You have put a lot of time and money into promotion. Why throw that all away so quickly?
http://tvseriesfinale.com/articles/my-own-worst-enemy-petition-nbc-to-%20keep-the-christian-slater-tv-show-on-the-air/
C’mon give the show a break and mention how many fans they do have! You are like the TV god!!!
If necessary, we ask that you find a new channel in the NBC Universal family to air it or, at the very least, bring the series to a fulfilling conclusion. There are millions of viewers who enjoy this program each week. Why throw that away?
Thank you for your consideration.
Sign the Petition 2122 Entries – 213 Pages Bold = New Entries
Dena, Bill didn’t mention that, that’s on me. I’m sorry — I meant relatively speaking nobody cares, which isn’t the same as absolutely nobody cares.
Jennifer, Holly covered my response pretty well, I’d just add that both Ghost Whisperer and Numb3rs were renewed last season with Indexes below all the other CBS shows that were renewed, almost certainly because they were on Friday. My guess is that if they reach the relative ratings they got last year, they’ll be renewed again. Ghost Whisper is there, Numb3rs is close.
“Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92.”
-This range is where WAT has landed – and 0.88 is closer to 0.92 than 0.80. I’m fairly confident that WAT will not be canceled unless cast/writers/ producers/etc. want to make a last season of it. Not counting reruns and special episodes of CSI, WAT is the first program to break the “slot-o-death” curse in several years for CBS. In this one particular case, total viewers may mean as much to CBS (if not more) than 18-49 demo ratings.
Jessica, the tentative date for “Easy Money” is January 4. I don’t know about “Valentine.” I don’t know what MRC is doing in general. You know, other than accelerating their impending death.
clutz, there are a handful of orange shows which are safe for another year (and not just the annotated ones). There is also a green one which is toast (“Worst Week”). Possibly two, because CBS is rumored to be very disappointed with “The Eleventh Hour’s” ratings and direction. The trades don’t seem to care too much about it, either, considering it’s been picked up and no one bothered to report it. But, yeah, “Without a Trace” ain’t going nowhere. Not unless they want to go back to another 3 years of 3-and-out shows. (R.I.P., “Threshold,” “Love Monkey,” “Smith,” “3 lbs.,” “Cane,” “Secret Talents of the Stars”).
The brown shows? All of those are more gone than Brooke Shields’ common sense.
I still can’t fathom why fox would get PB to 100 shows/syndication especially with it’s popularity. What you see is what you get at this point. What are you going to replace it with? Another crappy 1/2 comedy that isn’t funny? There have been 4-5 of those at least the past two years, or a dumb game show like hole in the wall?
It just doesn’t make a lot of sense financially or from a viewership angle
Riff, “Eleventh Hour” might be safe – unless they have their next acronym show (CSI: Pittsburgh or NCIS: Somewhere Else
) waiting in the wings.
I know you just report the numbers (and thank you for that – in doing so you give us a wonderful way to analyze tv), but Chuck bouncing above and below the R/C line each week is driving me nuts.
Ok – I am not sure about my numbers – counting on the monitor is hard. It looks like there are about 66 shows here. CBS has 20 shows (12 above the line, 8 below), ABC has only 11 shows (4 above, 7 below), NBC has 14 shows ( 6 above, 8 below), FOX has 11 shows (7 above, 4 below), The CW has 10 shows (split 5 and 5). Beyond the staggering difference in scripted programming – thank you CBS – do the relative ratios tell us anything. Is CBS more likely to cancel in the green – especially when two of their low shows are likely to be renewed Friday shows? Are ABC and NBC less likely to cancel because they have less shows in the green stable. I know your index is based upon the best indicator of cancellation but I wonder if the ratio of R/C plays into it at all.
marenamoo, the ratio is likely important, since networks likely want to clear out a portion of their schedules for next year to try and improve, but likely have a limit to how much turnover they’d be comfortable with. I don’t have any numerical back up for that though, but I will think about what I could figure out.
As to the numbers you came up with, I think you may have only counted scripted shows (the top list). The unscripted shows (the bottom list) are also important to the networks, and they will renew or cancel them as well, but I don’t focus on them in the Index for two reasons (1) the Index ratio was not very good at predicting their future last season, (2) Relatively, our readers don’t care nearly as much about unscripted shows as they do scripted shows. I put the effort behind what people are most interested in.
The problem, Bill, is that CBS still only has three more shows on the unscripted list. (Though I think you must be missing some unscripted shows. There’s no 60 Minutes.) And only one of those is one that its ratings would suggest cancellation. (48 Hour Mystery is at .53, while Survivor and Amazing Race are both above 1.0, and I would assume 60 Mins is up there as well.) So unless there are some big drops for CBS, it’s likely going to have to cut shows in the green, which would be why, as Riff Rafferty suggests, Worst Week and Eleventh Hour should be worried.
Bah, 60 Minutes snuck into the scripted list. Separating the scripted from unscripted shows is a manual process I just don’t seem to be able to get right ;( I will fix that.
Update: 60 Minutes is now in its correct place. Note also that the absolute numbers of the shows are a bit misleading in that I remove all regularly scheduled alternate time slot reruns from both lists. That includes CBS’s 2 hours of “Crimetime Saturday”, NBC’s Saturday night reruns, CW’s reruns of ANTM and 90210, etc. That will also throw off any sort of “share of renew/cancel” analysis. Still, there may be something there and I am thinking about it.
Best show abc has by far is dirty sexy money! the writing is great!
The real problem with “Eli Stone” is that it is not a 10pm show. Even with a good lead in, it is a show that working people and families can watch but they can’t afford stay up that late.
Tom, I’d be more inclined to buy that if it showed up anywhere in the top 20 DVR shows ever.
I don’t think it really matters. ABC needs room on their schedule and putting ELI STONE where it’s at justifies the cancellation of the show. ABC loves bragging about being the most watched “affluent,” (see rich) network on TV, but they’re about to lose their big affluent cow in BOSTON LEGAL.
Tonight seems to be the night that will decide the fate of another couple shows as well. I expect bad numbers tonight. It’s just a gut feeling.
“My Own Worst Enemy getting cancelled at this point in the season was a surprise to me.”
Really? Have you checked the ratings? They are half of what Heroes poor numbers bring in.
Everybody make sure to watch Pushing Daisies tonight! Got to get the numbers up- and it’s one of the best episodes so far!
David4, Heroes is *still* one of NBC’s best shows even though it has fallen, with that logic NBC should cancel half of its shows right now.
MOWE has aired *4* episodes and even though it’s trending down it hasn’t come close to “Life” or “Lipstick Jungle” type numbers. It certainly wasn’t going to make it to next season with its numbers, but killed now? That was a surprise.
Well that sucks because I love Pushing Daisies but I’m not really surprised since ABC didn’t give us a real second season since they’re just giving us what would have been the rest of season one.
I have to ask, could the decision to cancel MOWE be related to problems with the lead? Slater killed is 1st career with substance abuse problems. Could it be that he is at it again, and the numbers are just not worth the worry, and the hassle? Or any other production snafu for that matter. Otherwise it doesn’t make any sense to pull the plug on MOWE now.
Bill – I just read it, thanks for the info, it was great
It’s funny, every year they talk about what a sweet timeslot they have after Heroes, and every year the show there fails because Monday Night Football and CSI: Miami have that slot tied up already.
Yet they continue to throw shows out there to wither and die.
Sort of like putting Eli Stone up against Without a Trace and Law & Order: SVU and expecting it to take over the timeslot.
Granted, the networks are probably run by people with the vision of the mortgage industry…
John, I personally believe that the time slot behind HEROES is a death slot. I think people watch HEROES and are disgusted (because the only reason they watch it is out of desperation that it could somehow right itself) and just don’t have the stomach for TV viewing after.
Nick I really hope you have access to capital, your going to owe me 10k.
Im not gonna celebrate just yet, but your whacked out theories of IP masking software and dual Nicks Nick are funny material. We are currently crafting a pilot based on what has transpired here.
Riff and You are the evil televison haters, that only enjoy shows in the top five. Always jumping on the band wagon of the latest ratings hit no matter how poor the show looks or is written. Riff following me around like an ex lover? You guys attempting to prove your IP software theories was classic.
I am so happy NickC you predict bad numbers because you seem to be wrong alot.
Let the party begin,
dirtysexyj, ok your lies are now at an all time high! Your entertainment value is incredible. “We are currently crafting a pilot based on what has transpired here.” I tell you what, I bet you your citizenship that you’re lying. Because this country needs less stupid people.
lying about what ? You know it bothers me when you say I am lying yetfail to identify or quantify your libel.
You have no idea what I had to go through to get that schedule removed
Hi,
I want to work on my ratio theory and see what the cut-offs for some shows were from last year. I don’t think that CBS will cancel Without a Trace – first show to hold on to a Tuesday lead in, or cancel GW or Numb3rs because they are a hammock on Friday that they are trying to fill. That leaves Cold Case, Gary Unmarried, The Unit and Old Christine as low numbers below the line. Cold Case is still beating B&S on ABC. Anyway if we had the 2007 – 2008 list for comparison it might make calculations interesting. Thank you if you can post that.
marenamoo,
The index from the end of last year can be found here:
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/08/27/the-renewcancel-index-our-predictor-of-show-futures/4800
marenamoo, note that not all shows are in the lists above, regularly scheduled repeats like CBS Saturday Night Crimetime are not included.
Doesn’t it seem that ABC, in particular, should re-adjust their averages? Their
2 highest-rated shows, Greys and Desperate HW have such high ratings that the avg
# is so much higher than any other network. Which means it is a virtually impossible to obtain number, and why so many of their shows are so far down on the
list. Correct me if I’m wrong, but ABC isn’t the #1 network, CBS is. What is ABC
going to do, cancel all their shows???
jill, For adults 18-49 ABC *is* the number 1 network, but only by a whisker over CBS. NBC and Fox aren’t that far behind. http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/11/19/cbs-abc-fox-continue-with-season-to-date-honors/8415
And no ABC isn’t going to cancel all their shows, just the ones that are significantly below average for them, as the rest of the networks will do as well. The number of shows for each network in the scripted “do not renew” zone is actually quite similar at this point: ABC (7), NBC (8), CBS (8), Fox (4). Based on your comment it seems that perhaps ABC is going to cancel all the shows that *you* watch though.
Fox’s low number makes sense when you consider they only program 15 hours (vs. 21) and they have a much higher % of unscripted shows.
DSM and PD are officially btw canceled with no plans of being picked up next fall. Word is just now starting to leak out.
I was reading a couple of articles in American journals about the decline of TV viewing figures and in particular the difficult 10.00p.m. time slot.
The problem is being exacerbated by the massive growth in DVD recording which is apparently having its greatest effect on the 10.00p.m slot.
In these circumstances it could be that shows in this time slot may be given a bit of leeway or judged on slightly different criteria in future.
I really hope that ABC gives LoM a chance. It has an interesting storyline, albeit similar to NBC’s Journeyman of last season, which was cancelled. Maybe if they ran new eps/reruns of it in Jan, after Lost? That should spark a decent amount of interest…
Dirty Sexy J, you can send my $10,000 to Robert. Just make his check $20,000. Make sure it’s a cashier’s check or money orders.
There are several shows in the orange that I just can’t see getting canceled unless something dramatically changes. The CBS Wednesday 8pm block has been seeing a nice uptick since their premieres and now only rest a million viewers or so behind the same timeslot on Monday, despite overall lower viewer numbers. The only problem with that block is that there’s nowhere to expand it. Even with the 8pm hour doing solidly, CBS isn’t about to move Criminal Minds to launch more sitcoms. I can’t see CBS canceling GW or Num3ers either, especially considering that they still are unable to fill the 9pm Friday hole, let alone other blocks on the night. If either of those get canceled, it’s a sign that CBS is officially giving up on the night like the other networks have. As for WAT, who knows. The drama is past year 5 and is doing okay numbers in a not particularly powerful piece of real estate.
NBC won’t cancel Law & Order. Despite it’s age, the budget has been trimmed and NBC has precious few utility players left. Law & Order draws okay numbers anywhere it goes. The same goes for all of NBC’s shows. God only knows what the peacock is going to do. It’s almost to the point where it no longer matters.
As for the shows on ABC, LOM will depend a lot on how it does post-Lost, and Samantha Who is borderline. I don’t see Ugly Betty going anywhere though. It’s down, but so is everything, and it wins its slot in adults 18-34.
Doug, I don’t think CBS will do anything to hurt their Friday night profits. They’re the only network able to make decent money on Friday. This week they are putting a repeat of THE MENTALIST on in the 9/8 central slot. Which should give NUMB3RS a boost. I believe NUMB3RS has shown an ability for decent retention when a good show airs before it. They’re especially high for a 10/9 central show.
CBS just has to find the show that matches well with GW and NUMB3RS that wouldn’t really outshine itself in another slot.
They had it in Close To Home, probably one of the worst cancellation decisions in the last 5 years. Inexplicable, really, considering it frequently out rated both 8pm and 10pm. I think that so long as CBS continues to make some kind of profit on Friday, the line-up stays.
I meant to say above the NAOOC and Gary Unmarried have total viewers just behind Monday, even if their adult numbers are lacking. I think that CBS’s comedies, along with The Mentalist, are the only true stories this television season.
thought that how i met your mother had season high ratings..wouldnt it be further up in the scale?
also didnt chuck have 600,000 more viewers than last week?
i really hope chuck gets thru to the next season…absolutely hooked to it!
I’ll miss Jonny Lee Miller (Eli Stone) a bit. I expect to see him in other projects though; maybe he’ll go back to his UK film career. As to the other cancelled shows this year? Meh.
Okay, I guess I do know what MRC is doing. Not paying their bills and getting their shows dumped! That’s what! How sad for “In Harm’s Way,” “Easy Money” and “Valentine.” Threw on a bunch of repeats to save money while throwing a bunch of new episodes in the trash. Was that The CW’s decision or theirs? Things like that irritated the hell out of me when Dean Valentine and Tom Nunan mastered the art of it at UPN.
“In Harm’s Way” was a pretty darn good show, too. (See, DSJanitor? I like low-rated shows, too. When they’re watchable.) I hope somebody, like the Discovery Channel, can pick up the reruns and dust off the 5 remaining segs.
Bill,
I think you can put LOM back in Orange since 4 more eps were ordered.
Andrea, I thought I did that last night. Does it show other than orange to you now?
Dateline is coming back, Lipstick Jungle is now at 9PM, Cruose is going to Saturdays, ABC makes official the changes of LOM and Private Practice
http://www.thrfeed.com/
thank you to all of you who answered my questions. I think I now understand
Clutz, yes, they have “CSI: Harper’s Island,” coming soon to a Crime Broadcasting System near you.
Don’t be surprised if “Eleventh” is a one-season show… or less. They paid a fortune for the rights to it, and then another fortune for Bruckheimer. And it’s underperforming. Never mind it gets a 7 rating and a 12/13 share and wins its time slot in households and total viewers week after week. NBC would kill for numbers like that. But this is CBS, and they’re in a perpetual state of thinking they can do better (and save money while doing it). I don’t really know what their expectations were, but I’m sure they fall somewhere between unrealistic and unreasonable. They have something of a reason to be upset, because it drops a pretty big amount of “CSI” viewers and drops at the half hour mark.
Never mind that the show’s maintained its premiere audience and that Bruckheimer’s responsible for 6 hours of CBS hits. They’ve got two cheaper dramas shot-in-Canada waiting in the wings. That’s all that matters.
To even think that a quality show like Pushing Daisies gets canceled, and that According to Jim is coming back just boggles my mind.
I don’t understand the attraction of According to Jim. It can’t be the acting. I have to wonder if According to Jim is doing well in syndication. If that may play a role in all of this.
As for Daisies, I can think of three networks that it could perhaps do well at. The Scifi channel, because that is basically what this show is. Lifetime, because the show draws in the woman viewer. The USA Network, where characters are welcome.
According to Jim gets crucified a lot on the internet (I’ve even been guilty of a little bit of that before). I wonder how many who trash it have actually watched it (I haven’t), instead of trashing because it’s the in-thing to lash out at when their precious unsustainably-low-rated high-school-heroine or undead-themed hourlong ’shipperfest meet up with economic reality.
I would think that Numbers is pretty safe from cancellation. Yes the Demo is always hovering around 2.5, but still when usually averaging 10 million viewers on a FRIDAY night, that’s pretty decent. Plus it now has longevity, and a fan base. I suggest moving it to renewal likely.
Kyle, I agree with you on Numbers. I’m going to add a new “trend” factor starting next week and try and make some distinctions between the shows based on that. I think that will give a better assessment of the current situations of shows.
I think ATJ will do ‘decent’… in this economic crisis, people will find to laugh about. Last year, Atj premiered with a 2.0 in the demo, I can see doing a 2.5 in the demo this year.
Bill, I know your current formula is being used as the most accurate prediction of cancellation but as everyone knows there are always other factors to be considered in a network’s decision to cancel which we all enjoy predicting and discussing. I had mentioned before the concept of a ratio based upon the number of shows tanking vs surviving. Since CBS has the highest number of strong shows it puts their shows that are slightly above the line in more jeopardy – especially when you consider some of their below line shows are likely to be kept – like Numb3rs (Friday) or WAT (holds on to a tough time on Tuesday). Even Old Christine is doing better. SO I think puts a show like Eleventh Hour in jeopardy. It is close to the line, doesn’t retain out of CSI, it is expensive. I guess it depends on how much they want to tick off Bruckheimer. Really where are the weaknesses in CBS’s line up? What will they cancel to make room for anew show.
Likewise, NBC has fewer above the line shows so I think that makes Chuck and even Life have a potentially stronger chance of next year renewal.
marenamoo, I don’t think so. Networks don’t get rid of their average shows, not when they HAVE below average shows.
I can see jiggering the schedule, but think you’re *far* more likely to see something like CBS cancelling The Unit, move Eleventh Hour there, try something new Thursdays at 10pm and go from there.
marenamoo, as Robert said, average shows don’t cancelled and *all* the networks have below average shows. Feel free to do whatever analysis you’d like, click the Cancel/Renew Index header at the top and see all the data from this season along with the final averages from last season. Then post it in a comment. I’m all for the numbers, and not much for guessing.
As to their being other factors, of course there are other factors. However, this simple analysis worked very well last season (and so far this season). If you can demonstrate how some shows that didn’t fit the Index got cancelled (or renewed) using some different analysis, that would be interesting. I await your results.
As I said above, I will be adding a “trend” variable starting next week. The trend is likely important for shows near the “cancel/renew” line. Shows near the line heading up are likely fine, shows near the line heading down are likely in trouble.
Also, I will add a bit of “early season recap” to next weeks post, since the mid-season changes have mostly been announced.
marenamoo, that’s correct. I could smell the cancellation of Bruckheimer’s “Close to Home” coming. Maybe other people couldn’t. It came very close to getting cancelled early in its first season, but they had another new show that was performing worse (“Threshold”). It got 11 million viewers on a regular basis, and it held its lead-in — and sometimes built on it. But its viewers were mostly over 50 and it was an expensive hour — money which never exactly showed on-screen. They wanted to go younger and cheaper. It happens.
Chris, I’ve watched “Jim.” The reviews are correct. It’s terrible. Maybe not the worst sitcom on TV (that honor goes to The Disney Channel’s offerings — take your pick), but pretty close to it. The bad casting was what really did it in. Belushi and Thorne-Smith have basically no chemistry. The supporting actors are wooden. And it doesn’t do well in syndication. And its ratings hit the skids after the fourth season. This is the last season, but it should have been the last season 3 seasons ago. There’s only so much you can pad a syndication package before the locals don’t even care if there are 18 more episodes available or not. But I guess ABC needed some cannon fodder for “American Idol,” and that was as good as any.
I’ll forgive Laraine Newman’s sister for co-creating it, because at least she had the good sense to leave it.
So Numb3rs demo is up from last year but CBS’s average is way up so the index is down but still that might help the show since their raw demo is up. When is CBS going to give Eleventh Hour the back nine? Anyone know?
I cannot believe that ELI STONE and DIRTY SEXY MONEY are being
cancelled. These are just about the only 2 shows I watch either on
line or on DVR. I really believe that there is a HUGE audience of
these shows that is not properly being represented.
It has been done before ….good, decent shows are cancelled and
replaced by a mid season junker, but shows have been saved by fans
contacting the network and telling them how awful it would be if the
show was cancelled……and it saved the outcome of the show.
Supposidly they are going by Neilson Ratings, but it does not capture
people who DVR, TIVO it or watch it on the web. . I know you all are
busy but it would only take a few minutes of your time. If you can
send this to everyone you know……maybe you can help me save the
show!
This is the direct link to the page for feedback to ABC.
http://abc.go.com/site/contactus.html?lid=ABCCOMGlobalFooter&lpos=CONTACT
Jill, you are welcome to spend your free time as you will, but the “show preservation” efforts are entirely futile. Sort of like rooting for the Detroit Lions.
RE: “Unfortunately, while preparing for the Index post on 11/25, I wiped out the copy and the table in this article originally posted on 11/18. The latest Index will be posted later today (11/25).”
Google cached the page:
and the cached version is likely one of the seemingly 40 revisions Wordpress stored….
Ah, of course, the Wordpress backup!
It’s not Thanksgiving without watching the Lions lose.
I can’t understand the cancellation of this ELI STONE. It was well written, well developed and a great addition, since ABC is losing BOSTON LEGAL after this year. “LIFE ON MARS” is dysfunctional at best and the storyline can’t be carried after the main character wakes up from his coma. Who’s driving the ABC’s network ship….look for shipwreck’s multiple by next fall and the following year. The only do well with the Disney network arm. They should let the execs for Disney boat steer the flagship.
Eli Stone was canceled because it got horrible ratings. Life on Mars has better ratings and has a better chance to grow if given a compatible lead-in.