The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you’re reading this after December 2, 2008 click here to see the latest list.
The dust has now settled on the mid-season changes for the broadcast networks after the announcements last week that Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone, Dirty Sexy Money and Lipstick Jungle are all cancelled after their episodes run out in mid-season.
With the mid-season changes behind us, this seemed like a good week to recap the results of the Renew / Cancel Index.
Except for My Own Worst Enemy, the Index called every mid-season show cancellation this fall well in advance:
- Easy Money, Valentine: Predicted on 10/07
- Do Not Disturb: Top of the first Index on 9/30, but Fox had just cancelled it.
- The Ex-List: Predicted on 10/14
- Lipstick Jungle: Predicted on 10/14
- ‘Til Death: Predicted on 9/30
- Pushing Daisies: Predicted on 10/14
- Eli Stone: Predicted on 10/28
- Dirty Sexy Money: Predicted on 10/28
- My Own Worst Enemy: Not predicted
The mid-season cancellation warnings by the Index had five false positives, shows that were identified as being in danger at some point that survived past mid-season:
- Life
- Knight Rider
- The New Adventures of Old Christine
- Everybody Hates Chris
- Gary Unmarried
Starting this week, I’m going to begin taking into account the 18-49 ratings trends for the shows near last season’s Renew / Cancel line of 0.92 in projecting their fate at the end of this season. For example, while Cold Case and Without a Trace have Indexes below 0.92, their trends are positive and I think, on that basis, renewal is likely for both. If you see shows now indicating green that have Indexes below 0.92, it’s because their 18-49 trend has been positive.
I’m going to stop mentioning the past distortion for Fox show Indexes from the World Series which temporarily boosted Fox’s network 18-49 average. The Fox 18-49 average is now something close to it’s non-World Series number and the Fox show Indexes can be evaluated reasonably now.
The meaning of the color coding has changed slightly. The dark red color now means simply Cancelled/Not Returning, instead of predicted Cancellation in January.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Cancellation by May, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
Unfortunately, the initial chart contained the weekly 18-49 averages for the networks and not their season to date averages. The chart has been corrected, but I will not be redoing the color coding for it.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY | CW | 288 | 1,370 | 0.21 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE | CW | 345 | 1,370 | 0.25 | cancelled |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 1,543 | 3,700 | 0.42 | now Sat |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,810 | 0.55 | cancelled |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 2,121 | 3,700 | 0.57 | cancelled |
| THE EX-LIST | CBS | 2,443 | 4,080 | 0.60 | cancelled |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,810 | 0.62 | off sched |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,545 | 4,100 | 0.62 | cancelled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,624 | 4,100 | 0.64 | cancelled |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,658 | 4,100 | 0.65 | cancelled |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS | CW | 890 | 1,370 | 0.65 | |
| LIFE – WED ONLY | NBC | 2,461 | 3,700 | 0.67 | now Wed |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,790 | 4,100 | 0.68 | final seaon |
| NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2,855 | 4,080 | 0.70 | |
| THE GAME | CW | 987 | 1,370 | 0.72 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,692 | 3,700 | 0.73 | |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,795 | 3,810 | 0.73 | |
| NUMB3RS | CBS | 2,994 | 4,080 | 0.73 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,080 | 4,080 | 0.75 | |
| LAW AND ORDER | NBC | 2,893 | 3,700 | 0.78 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,079 | 3,810 | 0.81 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 3,014 | 3,700 | 0.81 | cancelled |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,344 | 4,080 | 0.82 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER | CBS | 3,468 | 4,080 | 0.85 | |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,575 | 4,100 | 0.87 | |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 3,239 | 3,700 | 0.88 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,201 | 1,370 | 0.88 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,580 | 4,080 | 0.88 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,616 | 4,100 | 0.88 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,633 | 4,080 | 0.89 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,682 | 4,100 | 0.90 | |
| CHUCK | NBC | 3,343 | 3,700 | 0.90 | |
| Last Season Shows Below This Line Were Typically Renewed | |||||
| PRIVATE PRACTICE | ABC | 3,843 | 4,100 | 0.94 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,523 | 3,700 | 0.95 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 4,011 | 4,080 | 0.98 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,069 | 4,080 | 1.00 | |
| BONES | FOX | 4,266 | 3,810 | 1.12 | |
| THE BIG BANG THEORY | CBS | 4,713 | 4,080 | 1.16 | |
| AMERICAN DAD | FOX | 4,420 | 3,810 | 1.16 | |
| THE MENTALIST | CBS | 4,778 | 4,080 | 1.17 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,814 | 4,080 | 1.18 | |
| BROTHERS & SISTERS | ABC | 4,858 | 4,100 | 1.18 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 4,879 | 4,080 | 1.20 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,601 | 3,810 | 1.21 | not renewed |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,588 | 3,700 | 1.24 | final season? |
| HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER | CBS | 5,192 | 4,080 | 1.27 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 5,269 | 4,080 | 1.29 | |
| CRIMINAL MINDS | CBS | 5,288 | 4,080 | 1.30 | |
| LAW AND ORDER:SVU | NBC | 4,836 | 3,700 | 1.31 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 5,046 | 3,810 | 1.32 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,825 | 1,370 | 1.33 | |
| 30 ROCK | NBC | 4,992 | 3,700 | 1.35 | |
| SIMPSONS | FOX | 5,691 | 3,810 | 1.49 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,577 | 3,700 | 1.51 | |
| GOSSIP GIRL | CW | 2,065 | 1,370 | 1.51 | |
| FAMILY GUY | FOX | 5,906 | 3,810 | 1.55 | |
| 90210 | CW | 2,132 | 1,370 | 1.56 | |
| TWO AND A HALF MEN | CBS | 6,480 | 4,080 | 1.59 | |
| ONE TREE HILL | CW | 2,204 | 1,370 | 1.61 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,955 | 3,700 | 1.61 | |
| SMALLVILLE | CW | 2,230 | 1,370 | 1.63 | |
| CSI | CBS | 7,159 | 4,080 | 1.75 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,784 | 3,810 | 1.78 | |
| DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES | ABC | 7,969 | 4,100 | 1.94 | |
| GREY’S ANATOMY | ABC | 8,174 | 4,100 | 1.99 | |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
(1) CW MRC Sunday – The CW leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). 11/20 Update: That experiment is now at an end, the MRC shows will air for the final time on 11/23/08 and the CW will begin airing repeats and movies starting on 11/30/08.
(2) Friday night – Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
(3) New Adventures of Old Christine: Perhaps CBS is willing to accept low numbers in its new timeslot indefinitely to build a new “comedy block”. Perhaps CBS will return Christine to the warmth and safety of Monday night and cut Worst Week or Gary Unmarried loose. And perhaps not.
(4) Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
And for folks thinking “No way would the networks cancel all of those shows”, there were 25 scripted shows cancelled in the 2007-8 season. That is, shows that ran during 2007-8 that did not come back for 2008-9. These same networks cancelled at least 30 scripted shows that aired during 2006-7, although that’s just from a quick look at that season to date list that could suffer from a number of possible errors on my part, but the magnitude of shows cancelled was similar.
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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However the closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it’s in of being cancelled or not returning when it’s run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
Unfortunately, the initial chart contained the weekly 18-49 averages for the networks and not their season to date averages. The chart has been corrected, but I will not be redoing the color coding for it.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM’S WAY | CW | 355 | 1,370 | 0.26 | cancelled |
| AMERICA’S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,453 | 3,700 | 0.39 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 1,699 | 3,700 | 0.46 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,929 | 4,100 | 0.47 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,830 | 3,810 | 0.48 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 2,050 | 4,100 | 0.50 | |
| SUPERNANNY | ABC | 2,162 | 4,100 | 0.53 | |
| DON’T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 2,017 | 3,810 | 0.53 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,175 | 4,100 | 0.53 | cancelled |
| 48 HOURS MYSTERY | CBS | 2,199 | 4,080 | 0.54 | |
| COPS | FOX | 2,156 | 3,810 | 0.57 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,184 | 3,810 | 0.57 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,649 | 4,100 | 0.65 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,465 | 3,810 | 0.65 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,549 | 3,810 | 0.67 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,499 | 3,700 | 0.68 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,896 | 4,100 | 0.71 | |
| KITCHEN NIGHTMARES | FOX | 2,902 | 3,810 | 0.76 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,526 | 4,100 | 0.86 | |
| STYLISTA | CW | 1,244 | 1,370 | 0.91 | |
| AMAZING RACE 13 | CBS | 4,130 | 4,080 | 1.01 | |
| 60 MINUTES | CBS | 4,329 | 4,080 | 1.06 | |
| BIGGEST LOSER 6 | NBC | 4,152 | 3,700 | 1.12 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,370 | 3,700 | 1.18 | |
| EXTREME MAKEOVER:HM ED-8P | ABC | 4,914 | 4,100 | 1.20 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 4,920 | 4,100 | 1.20 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,599 | 4,080 | 1.37 | |
| DANCING WITH THE STARS | ABC | 5,749 | 4,100 | 1.40 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 5,676 | 3,700 | 1.53 | |
| THE OT | FOX | 6,110 | 3,810 | 1.60 | |
| AMERICA’S TOP MODEL | CW | 2,562 | 1,370 | 1.87 | |
| NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL | NBC | 8,532 | 3,700 | 2.31 |
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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Wow Heroes 18-49 fell but the average fell lower: cool
Was Numb3rs renewed at .74 last season?
God E.R is not going anywhere while NBC can still claw their hands into it while it holds strong.
Julia, It was 0.76 last year, but since Ex-List got canceled, it’s been doing a lot better, so it should continue to go up in the index.
Julia, as Holly wrote it was renewed last season with an Index of 0.76, and it’s got a positive trend for its 18-49 ratings this season, so I think it’s in good shape.
Fin, I think you may be right about ER, but NBC is still advertising it as the “Final Season”, so I’m not willing at this point to predict renewal.
Chuck is safe! Keep it up Chuck! I guess it helps that NBC’s average is so low…
Hole in the wall might be the worst show idea of all time
can not believe those idiots at abc cancelled the one show able to captivate my attention in the last ten years. a- holes
Renewal is likely of Kath and Kim? I don’t see that happening.
i think that Kath and Kim would probably get renemed because its like another 30 Rock and NBC has confidence in that show.
WHY DO YOU KEEP ON SAYING THAT LIPSTICK JUNGLE IS CANCELLED?! PRODUCTION IS ON HOLD FOR 2 MONTHS DOESN’T MEAN IT’S CANCELLED! ANNOUNCE THAT IT’S CANCELLED IF IT’S NOT IN THE FALL 09 SCHEDULE! GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT!
Based on the original post at http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/08/27/the-renewcancel-index-our-predictor-of-show-futures/4800, I would put the renew/cancel line at 0.90. That is also cleaner.
So glad they were wrong about Old Christine and Gary Unmarried! I think that has to be one of the most enjoyable hours of comedy this season!
Keep in mind that NBC’s averages are skewed by Sunday Night Football. Since that won’t be airing come winter, and NBC’s overall averages are likely to drop when facing off against American Idol/24, etc…well, Kath & Kim’s .94 now is practically a 1.00. If it sinks as low as .90, it’ll still be safe since that’s an average show after you take away the anomaly that is the NFL weekly.
Actually, Kath & Kim is screwed by the new series premiering mid-season from some of The Office team….if it airs at 8:30, it will be a much better lead-in for The Office and a key way to snag viewers of TO/30 Rock that never tune in to the hour that airs prior…plus, if the show is creatively better, it could grab some of Earl’s leftover audience as well. Since NBC doesn’t have any other comedy blocks, Kath actually looks pretty screwed once that show begins airing as there just won’t be anywhere else to air a solitary, critically reviled sitcom.
I think NBC would be smarter to do some shuffling and dump My Name is Earl for a few weeks to try out a new block with 30 Rock/Kath & Kim/Office/New Office. Seems like the new show would most benefit from leading out from The Office, and 30 Rock has been strong enough this season that it couldn’t hurt to try it in place of MNIE. MNIE has no room for growth and can only continue to bring down the entire night, while Kath & Kim might actually make it with a different lead in.
Im glad Chuck is above the line. That show is awesome!!
When does Eleventh hour get its back nine? I still think that is is trouble because of low retention, high costs and few other CBS shows to cancel. Didn’t Big Shots get canceled at a higher average?
Eli Stone is going the way of the Dodo bird…so depressing
Julia, the problem is that The Office is the tent pole of the night. If you stop having 30 Rock lead-out of The Office, it will lose PLENTY of viewers that are only watching because they like it (but don’t love it) and it airs after The Office. A new show created by The Office team would be a waste to have airing AFTER The Office since it will already snag that audience in the first place. For me, there’s a group of people that watch The Office/30 Rock every week that would certainly be willing to expand their habits to 90 minutes instead of an hour…but they’re going to have more reason to tune in a half hour early if you chuck the “new office” on a half hour early. Otherwise, too many lazy people will just tune it at 9 as usual and have a show they would have watched anyway air right after a similar program.
I don’t think it will work that way, but since NBC is rarely smart, they likely will leave My Name is Earl, and try it your way, so I guess we’ll see.
It’s unlikely that Privileged, The Unit, Terminator or Prison Break will make it to the 2009-2010 season. However Ugly Betty is doing better, and the numbers for Gary Unmarried & Old Christine are starting to rise so don’t be quick to put them on the cancellation by May list. Same with Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Both of those are doing badly but they do air on Fridays so they should be cut some slack. Everything else on the list seems accurate to what might happen come May.
It sucks enough that Pushing Daisies is cancelled but you don’t need to put salt on the cut by saying you predicted it all along in October. Get over your ego and just give us the numbers…hints the name of the site.
I don’t think we’ll see much of an out-cry for Everybody Hates Chris even though it’s now the de-facto bubble series. It earned strong critical acclaim out of the gate but then by the end of its first season devolved into yet another family comedy reminiscent of The Bernie Mac Show. In fact, I think Mac had kind of a similar run and ended up being burned off on Fridays. Anyway, if this were early in its first season, this place would be flooded with vocal supporters including myself. Since then? Nah.
John Locke, excellent post.
I don’t think it’s about ego John Locke. I’d say it simply reinforces exactly what they have been saying for the past few months in terms of whether or not this was a viable way of reading whether or not shows would be canceled. I happen to believe this is an invaluable resource [especially for someone who actually works in television on the producer side].
It’s the internet, perhaps you need to lighten up a little. Robert and Bill do an excellent job with this site and if they want to provide commentary they will. Don’t like it, start your own site.
It’s testing the accuracy of the index. There is nothing wrong with that, and you need to stop being so bitter.
I know you’re not happy, John Locke, but no one’s trying to put salt in your cuts. Calm down.
John Locke, I have a compromise.
The guys will continue to run this site exactly as they are doing so now… and you will deal.
Way to go Chuck!
Bill, just wanted to say that I love this site. So glad I found it.
LIPSTICK JUNGLE LIVES
Reports of the demise of “Lipstick Jungle” may have been premature. Ben Silverman, the co-chairman of NBC Entertainment, said the network will definitely finish the 13 episodes that it originally ordered — it has four more episodes to go — and may order more if the show “grows more.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/18/arts/television/18arts-LIPSTICKJUNG_BRF.html?_r=1&ref=television
Salt in your wounds? what do you want them to say? Well it was cancelled but saying its bad and therefore we wont… why would it be annoying that they were right: but thats the part you hate. I bet you convinced yourself that this index was wrong but when it was more accurate than you think you start accusing it of commenting on the plain obvious: stating it cruel. Though it is an inguineous thing they have created. Get over yourself: oh and they created a website that is awesome so i don’t think your comment was valid (only the numbers): how would people understand it???? The show was cancelled get over it.
I agree with Julia. I think Bill was merely intending the comments as a report on the usefulness of the Index as a predictive tool. I don’t think he intentionally meant to offend anyone. (Although some of those whiny comments do have a certain entertainment value.)
Seeing that Lipstick Jungle’s ratings last week slumped right back down, I don’t think that’s the kind of growth NBC needed to see to justify ordering more episodes. The numbers stink even by NBC’s standards this season. Anyone who’s still holding out serious hope that the show will go on needs to face reality and admit that it probably is not going to happen.
Is Ugly Betty really in that much danger? I thought the show was pretty much holding its own considering the tough timeslot.
Lisa, I think Ugly Betty looks to be one of the “bubble” shows that fans are biting their fingers over in April/May. While all the “orange” shows are in danger, their situations are not the same. As I said in the post,
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
While I’m not surprised that there was some sensitivity I think the point of it is this: THE INDEX WORKS! It’s not 100% perfect (no method will be 100%!), but it’s a very good and very useful tool for predicting.
If it had turned out it wasn’t, I’m sure Bill would have given the index a bad grade in public, and gone back to the drawing board.
In regards to your false positives:
EHC films their order very early on; last year they had their entire order done by the time the WGA strike kicked in. There is simply no economic point in a “mid-season” cancellation of a show with two episodes left to film.
Life & KR need a steroids-like asterisk next to them, with a footnote that reads “Silverman-era NBC”.
Regarding WW/GU/Eleventh Hour/Privileged, have CBS/CW actually announced their Spring schedules yet / have we heard from the showrunners that they are getting full season orders? I haven’t seen any sign that their fates are actually known yet.
And as much as I hate giving them hope, LJ not appearing on NBC’s January-only schedule proves nothing: Neither do Heroes/Life/Chuck/Kings/Apprentice, yet we all know they will be aired in 2009 (even if we all know LJ is in fact cancelled).
Tome, CBS did order more episodes for Gary Unmarried (I think it was 7 episodes and 2 more scripts). They also ordered 4 more episodes of Worst Week. I think Privileged might have gotten a full season as well, but I’m not sure. No word on Eleventh Hour.
**Tom** Sorry for the extra e
Tom, one thing I learned this fall is that that veteran shows, no matter how badly they’re doing are very unlikely to be cancelled at mid-season. Knowing that in advance I never for a moment would have predicted that EHC or Christine would go down in mid-season.
MOWE is also “Silverman-era NBC” and was given the death sentence after 4 episodes. I don’t think we can draw too many conclusions based on those 3 very different data points.
I have not seen CW’s schedule, but I doubt Privileged gets canned before the end of the season, and maybe not then.
You’re right, the lack of LJ in NBC’s Jan schedule proves nothing. The fact that it’s NBC’s lowest regular (non-mini series) 18-49 demo rated scripted show proves that it’s dead.
Ignore the ratings of “Everybody Hates Chris.” The CW has financial incentive to produce a fifth season of it — even if it’s just 13 episodes. They (CBS Paramount) own the show outright and it has a good off-net deal (local affiliates and Nick at Nite) in Fall ‘09. And since somebody else mentioned “Bernie Mac,” which was also moved to Friday in its fourth season, well, there you go. They were renewed for a fifth. Because FOX owned the show and wanted 100 episodes. It’s just not common or sensible for a network who has full ownership of a comedy to shitcan it right before it launches an off-net run. Of course Steve McPherson did just that with “My Wife and Kids,” but he’s senseless, so that makes sense.
P.S. Is there a place we can lock up all the “LIPSTICK JUNGLE ISN’T CANCELLED!” crowd so we never have to hear that again?
Riff Rafferty, you are such a woman hater! Obviously you’ve some issues!
Don’t forget to watch Lipstick Jungle on Dec 5th at 9pm!
Good point. I actually did think up the 100 episode business and the fact that Chris is the sort of series that would play well in re-runs…I guess if there’s enough incentive and the networks is only losing a minor amount by producing each new episode…
61% accuracy. bah
I watch 30% of the shows that have been cancelled! And if Crusoe falls off the bubble, that brings it up to 40%! I guess I’ll have a less complicated schedule for my VCR’s, but I will have lost a lot.
Any chance LIFE might get a JAG change and get another network to pick up it with some real advertising?
why are “Without a Trace” and “Cold Case” in the green? They’re below the line shouldn’t they be orange?
I hope Chuck gets up to a 1.0 by the end of the season. 0.97 is kind of pathetic.
Johnthemon, read the commentary.
Is there anyway to get eli stone on a cable network, USA, TNT, etc? Just wondering if they ever pickup shows and what can the fans of eli stone do. Thank you for any feedback!
Mo, it’s not impossible the way say, the Detroit Lions winning the Super Bowl is, but cable networks that decide to buy new episodes of a broadcast show (like USA and Law & Order:CI, for example) typically do it with *successful* shows which Eli Stone was not.
But then again, if the show was successful, the broadcast networks would be reluctant to let the show go.
Ben, indeed, it would have been better for me to have written “once successful” or “marginally successful” instead of “successful”.
My question is a what do you do with CBS after you analyze indexes and trends. Except for two comedies, The Unit (which is actually pretty stable on Sundays but still in danger) and the already canceled Ex-List, what do they have left to cancel? Do you make a numeric presumption that a network will want to bring in a certain percentage of fresh ideas. I would think that some renewal likely cancellations would occur (although I hate the idea of a NCIS spin-off, that show is about the characters not the premise). Does that question move beyond the numbers which you provide and move more into the realm of speculation or is there another level of analysis that would help. Cost of production, age of product?
Robert the new TAMI system for NBC shows that ‘Heroes’ (http://heroeswiki.com/TAMi#Season_Three_.28as_of_11.2F25.2F08.29) has 16.54 million average veiwers this season: which is awesome. But if this applies to Heroes and reportly 10 other NBC shows: then does this mean that for NBC shows the 18-49 index will have less relevance in terms of cancellations?
Fin, the TAMI is pretty much used for NBC PR purposes only. The reality is that the other things that it counts, besides the TV viewership that we report, amounts to almost no money at this point compared to traditional TV advertising, so it’s likely to have little bearing on show futures.
marenamoo, there may very well be other factors that cause a show to be cancelled, particularly internal economic ones that we have no idea about.
I think PRIVILEGED will be canceled to make room for one of the midseason shows if it doesn’t do better behind GG.
The only ABC show my family watchs is Eli Stone. ABC changed the format around and got rid of most of the musical visions, so it’s not as good as it was the first season, but we’ll still be sad to see it go.
I could not see both The Game and Everybody Hates Chris being cancelled. I think it would cause a huge backlash because it would leave no African-American shows on Broadcast TV. But you may have a point, they probably stuck it on Friday nights to fail…..
To save Eli Stone, sign the petition:
http://tvseriesfinale.com/articles/eli-stone-petition-to-save-the-cancelled-abc-tv-show/