The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you’re reading this after December 9, 2008 click here to see the latest list.
Now that we’ve settled into the hoilday TV doldrums, there is unlikely to be much action for quite some time on show cancellations or renewals. New shows will be introduced to the network lineups beginning in January and we’ll begin tracking them and their chances when they do, but until then all we can do is look at the marginal shows that survived past mid-season and forecast their chances today for renewal for 2009-10.
These categories are my guesses that may deviate a bit from the numbers in the Index, as I try and do a bit of fortune telling.
Prognosis Negative: Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles, Life, Gary Unmarried, Prison Break, Knight Rider, The Unit.
Fans of Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles and Life hope new timeslot opportunities save them, I highly doubt they will. Gary Unmarried likely doesn’t get the “veteran benefit of the doubt” that Christine *may* get. Besides Prison Break’s bad ratings, it’s rumored to be on the way out. Only a ridiculously good deal with Ford (that we have no inside info about) could save Knight Rider. The Unit’s numbers don’t inspire hope, and it has CBS’s worst ratings for a scripted drama.
A Fighting Chance to Survive: Law and Order, Ugly Betty, Life on Mars, Privileged.
Law & Order numbers are marginal now, but I think NBC’s 18-49 average may fall enough in the spring to keep the old warhorse alive. Ugly Betty will be largely unscathed by American Idol which could boost it enough on a relative basis to survive. I’d give Life on Mars between a 25% and 50% chance of survival at this point based on nothing more than tea leaf reading. The fact that Privileged is being taken off the CW schedule in March with no word on its future is ominous.
Future renewal based on factors I cannot quantify: Everybody Hates Chris, The Game.
While their numbers are terrible, there are a number of factors that cannot be translated into numbers (from the data we get) that may keep them alive: (1) Low Friday night expectations; (2) Syndication potential; (3) “Political” concerns (can the CW cancel both its shows prominently featuring African Americans?). It’s anybody’s guess what will decide the fate of these two shows.
I Have No Idea: The New Adventures of Old Christine.
The ratings are bad, but are they significantly worse than CBS expected for the move to 8pm on a new night? Only Nina Tassler knows for sure.
As I wrote earlier, I’m going to begin taking into account the 18-49 ratings trends for the shows near last season’s Renew / Cancel line of 0.92 in projecting their fate at the end of this season. For example, while Cold Case and Without a Trace have Indexes below 0.92, their trends are positive and I think, on that basis, renewal is likely for both. If you see shows now indicating green that have Indexes below 0.92, it’s because their 18-49 trend has been positive. And even though Privileged currently seems to be “safe” the fact that it’s being taken out of the schedule in March with no word on its future puts it in doubt.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Cancellation by May, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY (1) | CW | 288 | 1,300 | 0.22 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE (1) | CW | 345 | 1,300 | 0.27 | cancelled |
| CRUSOE (2) | NBC | 1,543 | 3,640 | 0.42 | now Sat |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,730 | 0.56 | cancelled |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 2,121 | 3,640 | 0.58 | cancelled |
| THE EX LIST (2) | CBS | 2,443 | 4,050 | 0.60 | cancelled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,470 | 4,070 | 0.61 | cancelled |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,545 | 4,070 | 0.63 | cancelled |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,730 | 0.63 | off sched |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,658 | 4,070 | 0.65 | cancelled |
| LIFE - WED (4) | NBC | 2,461 | 3,640 | 0.68 | |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS (2) | CW | 890 | 1,300 | 0.68 | |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,795 | 4,070 | 0.69 | final season |
| NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE (3) | CBS | 2,837 | 4,050 | 0.70 | |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,748 | 3,730 | 0.74 | |
| NUMB3RS (2) | CBS | 2,994 | 4,050 | 0.74 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,692 | 3,640 | 0.74 | |
| LAW AND ORDER | NBC | 2,739 | 3,640 | 0.75 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,059 | 4,050 | 0.76 | |
| THE GAME (2) | CW | 987 | 1,300 | 0.76 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2,885 | 3,640 | 0.79 | cancelled |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,053 | 3,730 | 0.82 | |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,352 | 4,050 | 0.83 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER (2) | CBS | 3,468 | 4,050 | 0.86 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,546 | 4,050 | 0.88 | |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,575 | 4,070 | 0.88 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,616 | 4,070 | 0.89 | |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 3,239 | 3,640 | 0.89 | |
| PRIVATE PRACTICE | ABC | 3,642 | 4,070 | 0.89 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,646 | 4,050 | 0.90 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,703 | 4,070 | 0.91 | |
| CHUCK | NBC | 3,326 | 3,640 | 0.91 | |
| Last Season Shows Below This Line Were Typically Renewed | |||||
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,201 | 1,300 | 0.92 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,523 | 3,640 | 0.97 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 4,011 | 4,050 | 0.99 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,088 | 4,050 | 1.01 | |
| BONES | FOX | 4,199 | 3,730 | 1.13 | |
| AMERICAN DAD | FOX | 4,259 | 3,730 | 1.14 | |
| THE BIG BANG THEORY | CBS | 4,757 | 4,050 | 1.17 | |
| THE MENTALIST | CBS | 4,784 | 4,050 | 1.18 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 4,798 | 4,050 | 1.18 | |
| BROTHERS & SISTERS | ABC | 4,823 | 4,070 | 1.19 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,812 | 4,050 | 1.19 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,475 | 3,730 | 1.20 | not renewed |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,588 | 3,640 | 1.26 | final season |
| CRIMINAL MINDS | CBS | 5,198 | 4,050 | 1.28 | |
| HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER | CBS | 5,238 | 4,050 | 1.29 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 5,259 | 4,050 | 1.30 | |
| LAW AND ORDER:SVU | NBC | 4,767 | 3,640 | 1.31 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 4,994 | 3,730 | 1.34 | |
| 30 ROCK | NBC | 4,992 | 3,640 | 1.37 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,825 | 1,300 | 1.40 | |
| SIMPSONS | FOX | 5,537 | 3,730 | 1.48 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,485 | 3,640 | 1.51 | |
| FAMILY GUY | FOX | 5,680 | 3,730 | 1.52 | |
| GOSSIP GIRL | CW | 2,065 | 1,300 | 1.59 | |
| TWO AND A HALF MEN | CBS | 6,531 | 4,050 | 1.61 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,955 | 3,640 | 1.64 | |
| 90210 | CW | 2,132 | 1,300 | 1.64 | |
| ONE TREE HILL | CW | 2,136 | 1,300 | 1.64 | |
| SMALLVILLE | CW | 2,230 | 1,300 | 1.72 | |
| CSI | CBS | 7,159 | 4,050 | 1.77 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,792 | 3,730 | 1.82 | |
| DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES | ABC | 7,915 | 4,070 | 1.94 | |
| GREY’S ANATOMY | ABC | 8,174 | 4,070 | 2.01 | |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
(1) CW MRC Sunday – The CW leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). 11/20 Update: That experiment is now at an end, the MRC shows will air for the final time on 11/23/08 and the CW will begin airing repeats and movies starting on 11/30/08.
(2) Friday night – Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
(3) New Adventures of Old Christine: Perhaps CBS is willing to accept low numbers in its new timeslot indefinitely to build a new “comedy block”. Perhaps CBS will return Christine to the warmth and safety of Monday night and cut Worst Week or Gary Unmarried loose. And perhaps not.
(4) Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
And for folks thinking “No way would the networks cancel all of those shows”, there were 25 scripted shows cancelled in the 2007-8 season. That is, shows that ran during 2007-8 that did not come back for 2008-9. These same networks cancelled at least 30 scripted shows that aired during 2006-7, although that’s just from a quick look at that season to date list that could suffer from a number of possible errors on my part, but the magnitude of shows cancelled was similar.
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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However the closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it’s in of being cancelled or not returning when it’s run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM’S WAY | CW | 355 | 1,300 | 0.27 | cancelled |
| AMERICA’S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,453 | 3,640 | 0.40 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 1,699 | 3,640 | 0.47 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,929 | 4,070 | 0.47 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,830 | 3,730 | 0.49 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 2,029 | 4,070 | 0.50 | |
| SUPERNANNY | ABC | 2,162 | 4,070 | 0.53 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,175 | 4,070 | 0.53 | cancelled |
| 48 HOURS MYSTERY | CBS | 2,169 | 4,050 | 0.54 | |
| DON’T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 2,017 | 3,730 | 0.54 | |
| COPS | FOX | 2,163 | 3,730 | 0.58 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,184 | 3,730 | 0.59 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,637 | 4,070 | 0.65 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,440 | 3,730 | 0.65 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,541 | 3,730 | 0.68 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,494 | 3,640 | 0.69 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,920 | 4,070 | 0.72 | |
| KITCHEN NIGHTMARES | FOX | 2,902 | 3,730 | 0.78 | |
| STYLISTA | CW | 1,107 | 1,300 | 0.85 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,571 | 4,070 | 0.88 | |
| AMAZING RACE 13 | CBS | 4,185 | 4,050 | 1.03 | |
| 60 MINUTES | CBS | 4,490 | 4,050 | 1.11 | |
| BIGGEST LOSER 6 | NBC | 4,077 | 3,640 | 1.12 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,340 | 3,640 | 1.19 | |
| EXTREME MAKEOVER:HM ED-8P | ABC | 4,903 | 4,070 | 1.20 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 5,365 | 4,070 | 1.32 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,599 | 4,050 | 1.38 | |
| DANCING WITH THE STARS | ABC | 5,788 | 4,070 | 1.42 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 5,636 | 3,640 | 1.55 | |
| THE OT | FOX | 6,110 | 3,730 | 1.64 | |
| AMERICA’S TOP MODEL | CW | 2,562 | 1,300 | 1.97 | |
| NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL | NBC | 8,489 | 3,640 | 2.33 |
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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
I have to say Bill and Robert, the work you both put into this is great. Your site has really contributed to my understanding of this industry and is now the site I have to check every day. The insight into how the networks and these shows work is fantastic! It sometimes borders on high comedy.
I worked in the Promotions department for a mid-size movie studio for 18 months and could not figure out what the hell they were doing. It irked me so much I left for law school, shortly thereafter the studio was sold. For years I never understood the intricacies of TV scheduling and programming. Now, I have something.
Keep up the great work!! Go Chuck!
How are Chuck’s numbers doing as the season progresses? Has its chances for renewal went up or down? I would think that almost catching up with Heroes in viewers gives it a good shot for S3.
Life cannot be canceled. It’s one of the best shows on TV. And NBC cares about quality! They are patient with those shows (and even others that don’t deserve their patience). And Life won’t be canceled because I like it to damn much!
If we’re going with the “tea leaves” of midseason scheduling, I’d say that Privileged, Eleventh Hour, and Life on Mars getting only partial back orders puts them all into bubble territory, at best. Reaper, getting an extremely late air date and against both of the only new hits of the year, is probably already canceled; on the flipside, Supernatural & Smallville staying put highly suggests both shows will be back next year. (Although a CW-only 18-34 index would be interesting to look at.)
Chuck’s 18-49 season to date average through 10/26 was 3,320, it’s now 3,326 (through 11/30). The tiniest of upticks, but up nevertheless.
Tom, I think your logic is sound. In the late spring, I’ll do more detailed posts on individual shows that are “on the bubble”. At this point too much is unknown.
My understanding is that non-ratings related rumors (producer fatigue, obvious aging of the star) could take Smallville off the CW schedule after this year, but you are correct that the ratings are fine.
Chuck has pretty much been on the fence all season. This week: not safe, last week :safe, 2 weeks ago: not safe……
Hopefully, heavily advertised 3D episode on Feb 2 should boost Chuck to the safe zone. Also, the NBC average STD 18-49 numbers should fall once football is over and 30 Rock stop having guest stars.
Nice to see Chuck climbing into the renewal range. I think if it can continue to gain audience through the end of this year and then at least hold those viewers next spring NBC would definitely go for a Season Three.
PROGNOSIS NEGATIVE – sounds like the name of a hospital show. They could have Jerry Seinfeld as the Chief of Surgery.
Because The Unit is on Sunday nights, competing with football and often on very late due to football overrun, do you think there’s a chance the spring numbers will improve enough to get it another season? Based on your commentary, it seems like a done deal that the show is finished after this season. Thanks for all the info, love the site.
“PROGNOSIS NEGATIVE – sounds like the name of a hospital show. They could have Jerry Seinfeld as the Chief of Surgery.”
Weirdly enough, I’d probably watch it.
Michael, a boost after the end of Sunday Night Football is always possible for The Unit, but it will take quite a boost to save it.
Joe, idizzle, did you click the link? It *is* from Seinfeld
Seems like My Own Worst Enemy is getting somewhat of a bummed deal compared to other shows considering the numbers don’t look too bad, I figured it would have gotten a full season.
Why is PRIVILEGED orange?
Matt, it’s got a shortened season and it’s being pulled for Reaper. Not a good sign. It’s right on the cusp of okay, so it could easily be canceled.
So does Reaper premeiring so late mean that the CW hates it and don’t expect it to have a 3rd season, despite the fact that it is one of their best shows quality wise and was doing better numbers than some of their hyped shows.
Darius, Reaper’s start date is mysterious and unique enough that we may not find out why. It may be something with Reaper or it could be the rest of the CW schedule (like wanting to burn of all the Privileged episodes before getting rid of it for good).
I think it mostly has to do with Reaper not fitting with the CW “image.” Like I said in another post, if Smallville is gone, Reaper gets paired with Supernatural. Otherwise, if the numbers aren’t great, Reaper will be gone.
Knight rider has been shortened to 17 episodes for this season. Knewly revamped episodes will air starting in Jan.
Although Smallville is one of my favorite shows and I want another season there’s a small chance it may not happen!
source: forum member @ kryptonsite.com & TVGuide magazine
Big Plans for Smallville
Is Tom Welling ready to hang up his Superman tights right before he gets fitted for them? Executive producer Darren Swimmer wants to keep going, now that Smallville is enjoying a ratings rebound, but reveals there are some issues with “actor availability.” After 8 years playing Superboy. Tom 31, may undestandably be ready to fly off into grown-uproles.Consider Dean Cain was 27 when he began playing Superman on the 90’s ABC showLois & Clark:The New Adventures of Superman, and Brandon Routh was just 26 when he took flight in 2006’s”Superman Returns”. (Repeated calls to Tom’s reps seeking comment were not returned) The CW series has another challenge:It’s starting to feel more and more like Lois & Clark, with Clark now working outside of Smallville in Metropolis at the Daily Planet alongside Lois Lane and Jimmy Olsen. Coming to Smallville in early February is the villianous Toyman, a flamboyantly dressed classic DC villian who played on L&C first by Sherman Hemsley(the Jeffersons)and than Grant Shaud(Murphy Brown). Despite the similarites, Swimmer argues that “there’s not much of resemblance” between the two series.
While acknowledging he’s prepared for a series finale,Swimmer insists there are still a few speeding bullets left to fire off in the Superman mythology.”Clark’s now in full control of his powers and basically accepting the fact that he’s going to become Superman. The formation of the dual identity is what he’s going to be negotiating from here on out,” he says . “He’ll start to experiment.” Hmmm..bifocals?A golden lasso? New hair mousse? We’ll find out in a string of three new episodes beginning in February.
Some assemblange of the Justice League will return toward of the season’s end .The Legion Of Superheroes-three 31 century visitors named Cosmic Boy, Lighting Lad and Saturn Girl–arrive on January 15 when Clark faces off againest an atomic ax-wielding baddie from the future called the Presuader. But instead of an ax, the CW might consider sending the Presauder in to meet Tom with a fistful of cash. If negotiations fail for a ninth season, Swimmer suggest a Smallville spin-off starring
Phill Morris[John Jones AKA the Martian Manhunter], who next appears January 22. Cracks the producer, ” A Martian Manhunter Variety Hour might be fun!”
Right next to the article is a picture of TW in FOS with a little blub that says
Quote:
Clark might not be able to appear in the Superman outfit in Smallville’s final scene since it could conflict with the big-screen franchise, according to Swimmer
The Unit has been very good — but often doesn’t start until 10:40 — its not its fault that people aren’t staying up to watch — doesn’t seem fair.
Wasn’t there something about Reaper and the licensing fees — ?? its ABC studios, right (not CBS or WB)? CW wanted the license fees reduced, they weren’t
Every show in the orange is accurate except Ugly Betty and Privaye Practice both of which I think will be renewed. Also despite low ratings I think its safe to say Everybody Hates Chris and The Game will be back next year.
You have ‘Survivor’ in the scripted section.
Thanks for the info Bill/Julia. I really hope Reaper can stick around as the show really got better during the second half of the season.
thedemonhog, good catch. Survivor has now been moved to its correct location.
Bill have you heard anything on whether or not the planned PB 2 hour season/series finale will go ahead? They have apparently been in talks to have a 24 season order
Personally, I think the move of the Unit from behind NCIS to behind Cold Case was a bad idea. The military theme worked better with viewers and I see little that viewers of Cold Case and The Unit have in common. As others pointed out, the 10:40 starting time has hurt the show alot.
Even with all those negatives, I cannot figure out how people consider The Unit failing in the ratings. The total audience number of The Unit is consistantly over 10 million.
Since the CW is airing Privileged on Mondays after Gossip Girl for the next month I think they might have some faith in the show. And it certainly fits in with their “Image” of only wanting teenage/young adult female viewers. Plus they hit their “series high” with young women on monday according to you guys, which is probably a good sign. Besides, what else does the CW really have? And who knows, by March they will probably have moved Reaper again (wasn’t it supposed to start in Jan…). They should just put it on in May for the summer so we all have something better to watch than re-reuns and reality shows.
I vaguely recall “The Unit” on the bubble last season? Perhaps its retention rate out of NCIS was poor?
We’ve discussed the flexible nature of Friday nights. For CBS, I’d be inclined to think Sunday nights have a similar older-skewing-is-OK flexibility, so long as the total viewers can flirt with the 10-million mark.
JoJo, while I’m not sure I’d use the term “failing” for The Unit, it is CBS’s 3rd lowest rated scripted show for adults 18-49. More threatening is that it’s CBS’s lowest rated *drama* which they may think they could replace rather easily since they have so many others that do better. CBS may be more reluctant to get rid of marginal comedies where their ability to replace them may be more hit or miss.
Glad to see Chuck is staying up there. I wish more people knew about this great show.
Go Chuck Go!
As soon as footballs over NBC’s average will plummet, hopefully to keep Chuck way safe. Plus the Monday after the Super Bowl episode should give it a boost. Hopefully a sustained boost. The new FOX Monday is going to hurt it though…
However, NBC will have enough holes in its schedule where hopefully it’ll stay with Chuck.
Can i ask are you saying terminator is preatty much doa on its arrivil on fridays?
Augh! Chuck falls below the line!
i pray ugly better is renewed. Its an amazing show
* betty
LONG LIVE CHRISTINE!!!!! ITS A GREAT AND FUNNY SHOW WORST WEEK GOT TO GO
REAPER is going to benefit from the late start and be up against the AMERICAN IDOL phenom a lot less than if it was brought back in mid January like originally planned.
REAPER did much better than PRIVILEGED has done and it followed BEAUTY AND THE GEEK last season.
PRIVILEGED may have had its best numbers after GG but they weren’t that good.
Chuck is below the line but is highlighted green (predicted for 09-10 renewal).
One reason for this is the quality of Chuck and there are so many other shows on NBC in much worst shape ratings-wise & quality-wise.
It doesnt seem to matter though if Reaper does great. Last year it had the same numbers as GG, but they picked that up no problem and turned Reaper into a mid-season replacement, mostly because it does not fit their “image” which is to alienate and entire sex (men), who are mainly the viewer or Reaper. So really if they still dont like it, it will be gone.
Jo Jo, “The Unit” is basically a goner. Sorry. The producers had to beg for this season, and only barely got it. (It didn’t go back into production in the spring after the strike. 2 shows they canned — “Shark” and “Moonlight” — did.) CBS has an embarrassment of riches. Because of that, shows with 10 million viewers get dumped on a yearly basis. Simon Baker starred in one such show. He now stars in another show which took the time slot “The Unit” used to have… and doubled the audience that “The Unit” had there.
As for “Reaper,” I was expecting it to be paired with “13″ Wednesdays 9:00, but whatever.
I am PRAYING that Everybody Hates Chris gets renewed. I can’t understand why this brilliant show never gained a sizable audience. The show is fantastic, and nicely filled the void that was left when Fox uncerimoniously dumped the equally brilliant The Bernie Mac Show. I can live without The Game, but please renew EHC! We’ve gotta get at least 100 epsiodes so the show can live forever in syndication and people can hopefully one day realize what a great show it is!
ABC will wait to see how Private Practice does in it’s post-Grey’s slot before making a decision I would have thought.
Why isnt Everyone Hates Chris getting better ratings? Because EVERYONE HATES CHRIS! Almost everyone. Kind of ironic. Should have called it Everyone Loves Chris.
Maybe NBC could replace ER with PROGNOSIS NEGATIVE using Jerry Seinfeld and former Seinfeld cast members and guest stars? It could be 1/3 ER, 1/3 St. Elsewhere and 1/3 Scrubs. Id watch that! With NBCs sucky ratings it would probably be a winner.
I still firmly believe PB is too close to syndication to just let it go. On top of you have to have something to replace it and at this point i don’t see Fox or any network having 3-5 new shows that are better especially when there are much worse shows like hole in the wall, TSCC that need replacing first.
I’m surprise that you say that you have no idea for Old Christine. I’m also surprised that you say that the ratings are bad. It wins second in its timeslot more often than not, and is only about 2 to 3 million behind Bones. What else can CBS ask for! (I mean, they can ask for much more, but I feel it’s doing extremely well for being abandoned to a new timeslot with almost NO advertisement saying so!)
Dave, Old Christine is CBS’s *worst* scripted show for adults 18-49. It typically trails badly in that demo in its timeslot. Total viewers are meaningless for the success of the show. CBS may well cut it a break because of the new timeslot, that’s why I have no idea what will happen to it, but on ratings alone it’s a goner.
First time poster here, but I’ve been visiting the site for a few months now so I think this is probably the place to ask (without encountering the hystria of some other messageboards I’ve made the mistake of reading
– What is everyone’s thoughts on a fourth season of Heroes?
I realise it’s petty secure on the Index, but how much stock do we/can we put in other factors – the ratings have fallen quite dramatically, the critical (and in some cases, fan) backlash, the impact of internet & DVD viewing, the alleged budget overruns…
I sometimes think I’m one of the few people who still enjoys the show, and would hate to see it cancelled even if it isn’t the ‘buzz show’ that it was two yeas ago.
GNW, welcome! Unless Heroes falls from its current level, its ratings are just fine for another season. Other issues associated with the production or negotiations with NBC I have no knowledge about.
Thanks for a quick reply! Great site, by the way.
Generally, a great site! And a *very* interesting article… Thanx for the effort!
Living in Sweden, a country that bought pretty much 100% of the 2007-2008 scripted US television production (new and old, canceled and renewed) this is just as interesting for me as for the American TV audience – not to mention that it is really interesting to compare this to the Swedish ratio… Ugly Betty, Dirty Sexy Money and Prison Break seem to be doing much better here, while One Tree Hill, and (quite strange IMO) 30 Rocks and The Office doesn’t manage nearly as good.
Out of the newbies, I am most happy to see that 90120 and Fringe is doing good. Grey’s and NCIS are just wonders for still reaching as high, and I’m thrilled to see the Housewives at the top.
Keep up the good work!
When is there a break from counting the averages for the network? Next week until the end of January? Then normal until the end of May?
Ben, the beginning of the broadcast season each year in late Sept (this year was 9/22) officially starts the “clock” on the averages. However, this season’s shows that began airing new episodes prior to 9/22 (most of the CW, much of the Fox lineup) have all those early shows included in the show by show averages. However, the “network* averages start fresh on that week.
There is no “break” in compiling the averages. Show repeats occurring during the regular time-slot do figure into the averages unless they are designated a “special” by the network, which is fairly rare and somewhat arbitrary.
While the broadcast networks consider the season “over” when the May sweeps end in late May, the season averages continue compiling until the next season begins again in late Sept next year.
Thanks Bill, I do wonder whether it is better to have 2 runs with no repeats, similar to what NBC are doing on Mondays, or start a bit earlier mid-season and have a few repeats. I guess what you are saying is that repeats and starting earlier are better than starting later and no repeats as people watch alternatives and stick with them. I believe ABC tried the former with Lost in its 3rd season at the request of fans, if i’m not mistaken.
Yay go Chuck… Lets hope it keeps climbing and stays above the renewal line!
I do find Ugly Betty’s numbers to be slightly disheartening but it did improve (index wise) this week.
In your honest opinion Bill, do you believe ABC would cancel “Ugly Betty”? It does seem unlikely. IMO, I don’t even know why it has decreased slightly in viewers. The quality of the show hasn’t gone downhill. In any case, does it have a good chance at surviving?
Even though it’s below average now, I like Ugly Betty’s chances. I have a feeling that UB’s numbers will show enough improvement vs. the ABC average to save it. In early 2009 ABC’s 18-49 average will be getting pummeled by all the new shows they’re introducing (which, knowing next to nothing about the shows themselves, I’m going to assume will do *relatively* poorly), so if UB just holds steady, and I think it can, I think it shows *relative* improvement.
How bad off is terminator Bill?
Travis
Travis, short of a miracle once it moves to Friday, as Arnold might say “I’ll (not) be back”.
Like GNW above, I too am a first time poster. This thread must be bringing us out! (I’ve loved the site since I discovered it about four or five months ago. Tremendous site!)
I am among those who feel Life is one of the best couple of shows to come on in the last year or so. And I wonder why NBC hasn’t nurtured the show effectively.
As relating to Ben’s comments above, I have to ask when the last time was that a rerun of Life was broadcast? Ever? (Certainly not in 12 or 13 months, right?) Don’t reruns help a show like this stay in the “frontal lobe” of the viewing audience? NBC didn’t give Life much ad time/promotion at the beginning of either of the last two seasons; it seemed to put all its push behind Bionic Woman and Chuck last year and Knight Rider and My Own Worst Enemy this year. (I’m not knocking Chuck, by the way, another good show!) So wouldn’t reruns “protect” its time slot for faithful viewers and give potential new viewers a better chance of finding the show?
So far this year, Life has had three different time slots and never gets rebroadcast. Is an audience really supposed to find it? The same time slot—and running some reruns—might do this (or any) show some good, I would imagine.
Not running any reruns is certainly a new model for our current era of network television broadcasting. But given the alarming failures of second-year shows (certainly on ABC and NBC), one has to question the success of that model.
I thought this was supposed to be the last season of Prison Break anyway. Fox has to be intelligent enough to let this last season play out. Prison Break has been on a few years, and to end this series via cancellation instead of letting it play our would be just another bad choice by Fox. It would be a slap in the face to those loyal viewers of the show.
IMO, Fox has a very bad reputation of bringing on serials and canceling them early leaving the viewers left with no resolution to those shows. Fox needs to reverse that trend. No one is going to waste their time watching a serial if they believe that their will be no resolution to the storyline.
Moose, that is my understanding of the Prison Break situation. I didn’t mean to imply that it would be cut short *this* season, just that it’s likely to finish this season and no more.
PB is absolutely ridiculous an horrible this season from bringing SWC back to the horrible acting and writing.The writers have really fallen alseep this season no wonder it’s beyond horrid!
Great article and analysis. The one thing I noticed was that since the shows themselves are a part of the network average that things can get skewed for a network as evidenced by things like the World Series or Sunday night football on NBC, but even hit shows can cause a sort of imbalance.
For instance, ABC currently has only 3 scripted shows above the .92 mark and 8 below because Desperate Housewives and Grey’s get such large audiences in comparison to all the other scripted shows on ABC. Bro&Sis is the only other show above .92 and that airs after DH. ABC already canceled 3 of the 8 below plus Boston Legal ending, so I doubt the remaining 4 will all be cancelled. If season ending now, I would say Ugly Betty and Private Practice renewed, Life on Mars cancelled because it’s ratings had been heading down and Samantha Who cancelled since it seems to only hang in there because of the Stars lead-in. But, with PP and Life on Mars getting new timeslots anything could happen with these shows. Plus, According to Jim keeps getting renewed and they seem to like Samantha Who and hardly have any comedies, so wouldn’t be surprised if that stays too. I’d predict that if none of the new midseason shows does well, then as long as these 4 shows don’t dip further, they could all be back next year.
FOX currently has 4 scripted shows below the renewal line and 7 above only one of the bottom 4 have officially been cancelled but it seems clear cut with no real qestionable shows – Prison Break is closest thing to outcome being up in the air, but even this seems on track to not be around next season.
CBS currently has 8 scripted shows below the line and 11 above the renewal line with only 1 of the bottom 8 gone already. I still think 11th Hour and Worst Week are weak links for CBS because they bleed too much of their respective lead-ins. I would expect at least one, if not both of these shows to not get renewed. If Cold Case and Without A Trace continue to hover around where they are, then I think only one would get renewed, although WAT may have the fact that they have improved that time slot for CBS working in their favor. Numbers I also think is a bit more on the bubble even though it airs on Fridays. But if CBS doesn’t have anything to replace it with, it will likely be back next season.
CW currently has 4 scripted shows below and 6 above with 2 of the bottom 4 already cancelled. Priviliged is the only show in question, it does ok but it loses a lot of its lead-in which hurts its chances.
NBC currently has 8 scripted shows below and 6 above the renewal line with only one of the bottom 8 officially cancelled. With one of the top 6 (ER) ending and with Sunday Night Football pushing the network average up which will be dropping soon, I think all the scripted shows will be improving as long as they can at least maintain their ratings they’ve been getting so far. So I think Chuck and Kath & Kim could move solidly back across into the renewal section while the other shows still look like they are ending this season, although Law & Order could bounce up enough and get a surprise renewal.
Sorry for the long post, this interests me though and it is a little fun to try to predict the outcome for these shows. I guess my overall point for those still reading
is that while the overall renewal number is arbitrary and can fluctuate, it also likely is a little different for each network. For Fox and CBS, with more shows above then below, they may be a little more critical and a show may need to have a slightly higher index number to be renewed. For ABC and NBC right now with more shows below then above, maybe these networks would have to keep shows at a somewhat lower index number in order to avoid cancelling the majority of their shows.
Terminator to be cancelled is a good thing for me, so I can stop my Summer Glau’s obsession:)
I still find it hard to believe that Fox will cancel Sarah Connor Chronicles with a movie in the works debuting in 2009. It seems in their best interest to keep the show going to help promote the movie which will intern promote the TV show. Just a thought.
Craig, “According to Jim” wrapped. It’s done. Courtney Thorne-Smith wanted to move on, and the audience moved on a long time ago. You’re on the money with everything else. Well, maybe I wouldn’t quite call “Numb3rs” a bubble show. Yet. It was the numb3r one show on the night this past Friday. Of course, I understand it’s also the most expensive show on Friday. If the cheap “Flashpoint” takes off, I’m sure the temptation will be there…
I have a question similar to Shaun. If FOX canceled TSCC right before T4 came out – and the movie was a HUGE success – wouldn’t that be REALLY embarrassing for FOX? I have a feeling they’d be kicking themselves harder than JK Rowling’s first husband.
Well its kinda hard for them to kick themselfs when in reality the show is hardly close to a hit.which if the show turns off people to terminator that means its turning away fans of the movies.So i think fox has only two options with the show.1 keep it around till the movie comes out and see if ratings picks up.2 cancel it let terminator 4 stand on its on legs and dont assoicate itself with terminator sarah conner chronoicles.
Ok, I am confused. Are you looking at new episodes only or all episodes of a show? My fav show broadcasts one month of new shows then one month of repeats or preemptions. Interesting marketing concept???? Don’t think so.
Of course I hope Knight Rider isn’t canceled, but it’s a bit depressing these numbers. But from what we’ve heard of the post reboot episodes, they are definitely heading in the right direction by helping the common man.
We spoke with Gary Scott Thompson on set and have him on video saying that the show is not canceled just a budget reduction. His argument is kind of valid when you see NBC cutting back on other shows and firing so many. Still good to hear.
http://knightrideronline.com/news/2008/12/knight_rider_not_canceled_says_gst.php
skylark, these averages include both new and repeat episodes during a show’s regular timeslot. Of course, at this point in the season there have been only a few repeat episodes aired during regular timeslots.
neil, Knight Rider is definitely not cancelled at this point. The predictions/table above apply to renewal for 2009-10. For that, Knight Rider is an extreme longshot.
Totally, I as always enjoy the predictions, it’s fun popcorn discussion. The whole TV lineups seem to s after the writers strike. And now with the new strike looming – ugh.
Looking at that list, and seeing how good the numbers were for it, I have to wonder why FOX didn’t renew King Of The Hill. Also, I have to wonder why ABC is even hesitating in picking it up off the scrap heap.
Knight Rider was cancelled.
@ Travis
I think it is a damned if you do damned if you don’t scenario. On one had you could look at it driving away viewers or you could see it as trying to gain interest by tying into the movie more. I think you might see some big name guest stars coming up. Also didn’t Variety report they had picked up the back end of this season and a third season or am I mistaken (which I am often)?
Shaun they just got the 22 episodes for this season.Season 3 for terminator is as likely as well i dont know what shows been cancelled this year but of that show coming back.Also big guest stars i hate to say i dont think arnold would touch this show with a 10 foot poll.To be honest after watching this season and the past season.This show takes alot of libertates with what was already set in the movies.Which kinda aleinates it fans and people who know the movies well.If i want my terminator i will watch the movies and think of the tv series as a really bad bizzaro world interptation.
I think the only way we will get a season 3 of TSSC is if a network like SCIFI picks it up. TSSC’s current ratings would make a hit on SCIFI, since the bar for SCIFI is much lower. Stargate Atlantis is ending its run this month, and I have to imagine that as far as production costs go, TSSC can’t be more expensive than Atlantis, which has a larger cast and spends far more on special effects.
Well, at least we fans can hope for more Summer Glau.
@Travis
I agree the govenator will not make an appearance I was just saying I think some big name actors will show up whether they are tied to the franchise or not.
Well Shaun still this show isnt highly rated and that doesnt really bring in the big name guest stars you are thinking of.Just my opinion.
Travis, the reason the show may he taking some liberties as you call it is because they need to spread the show out to fill hours upon HOURS of time. The movies just had to be 2 hours.
As for alienating fans, to each their own. But I have been a fan since seeing the secod movie when I was 6 (I’m 18 now) and it was honestly part of my childhood… I recently found a pic of me when I was 8 or so wearing a shirt from the 3D ride at Universal. Kinda funny to see an innocent litle girl wearing a shirt with Arnold’s smashed up Terminator face.
Trust me, Terminator was a huge part of my childhood.
When I heard they were making a TV show, I thought, “How the HECK can they have Terminator without Arnold??!” I was incredobly skepticle about it. Arnold basically WAS the franchise in my opinion. That all being said however, I absolutely adore
TSCC and it is, dare I say it, at least at the moment my favorite incarnation of the Terminator franchise. Arnold will always be THE Terminator, and the first 2 movies are pure classic greats. But I need to give props where props are due, and the cast and crew of TSCC really has exceeded my expectations. Imagine if the whole series was trimmed down to a 2 hour movie. I think it’d be able to capture the samme essence that made T1 and T2 phenominal.
I know this is just my opinion and some people will want to slam me for how much I love TSCC, but so be it. I’m not here to change anyone’s opinion, and nothing will change mine.
Rachel the last thing i would want to do is slam someone for being a fan of the show.I think its great the show helps caputre the spirit for a few people.But for me it seems like there missing the mark big time.I hope the fans enjoy the show for what is it.Also im in the same kinda boat for liking the new knight rider series.
Travis
I hope they dont cancel TSCC, it is a good show that can really develop more. I think I agree with the fact that if fox doesnt want it, they should try to get it on SciFi or something like that..
Only problem is that they were thinking about that for Jericho but it never happened, however Jericho in my opinion is not nearly as good as terminator sarah connor chronicles
Shaun, Travis: there has been nothing said about a third season of Sarah by anyone who would have the power to do anything about it.
To Save Eli Stone, sign the petition:
http://tvseriesfinale.com/articles/eli-stone-petition-to-save-the-cancelled-abc-tv-show/
This maybe a bit outdated but i still want to comment on ‘The Unit’. This show is being hit like a pingpong ball. Having it after the NFL would only draw down the ratings and viewers. Not everyone lives in the east coast. There’re people living and watching the show out of that timezone. Considering a constant 10 mil of viewers tune in this show for the last slot in the day before a work week, what more can it get. Unfortunately, no matter how many fans complain about the bad move on putting the show on sunday 10pm, none of us can change that. Most of the people are unable to tune in at that time, many of them has to catch the show on the official site or DVR it. I’d say it’s doing pretty darn good already for its circumstance. I wonder if there’s a chart for the most people tune in on the official web. If there’s such thing, ‘The Unit’ would do much better.