TV Week writes that the estimated ad revenues for The Tonight Show are:
According to TNS Media Intelligence, “The Tonight Show” generates about $926,000 in ad revenue every night for NBC. Spots cost $50,877 for 30 seconds and advertisers pay $33.32 to reach 1,000 viewers (CPM) in the adults 18 to 49 demographic, based on C3 commercial ratings.
And for NBC’s current weekday primetime line-up (which is doing relatively well on Tuesday-Thursday and dreadfully on Monday & Friday):
NBC’s prime-time programming in the 10 p.m. time slot generates an average of $2.3 million Monday through Friday night, ranging from a high of $2.6 million on Monday to a low of $1.5 million on Friday, according to TNS. Prices for spots range from $124,353 for 30 seconds on Monday to $70,239 for the same unit on Fridays. The CPM averages $34.87.
My guess is that the new Jay Leno Show at 10pm will probably do a bit worse than the current NBC line up, but better than that same line-up minus ER (ending this season) would do next fall considering how badly NBC’s newly developed shows have done.
In another article, TV Week has some numbers on how much The Jay Leno Show is likely to save NBC:
“It’s good for their business, even if it’s bad for our business,” one agent said, referring to the money NBC might save by airing fewer scripted shows in prime time. One top network executive estimated the Peacock now spends about $150 million per season programming dramas at 10 p.m.; the cost of Mr. Leno’s show could be as little as $80 million. However, since Mr. Leno will produce new episodes during much of the summer, the overall price tag might be somewhat higher.
With that cost savings comes decreased risk. The Tonight Show pulls in about a 1.3 rating for adults 18-49 now, I’d expect The Jay Leno Show to pull in a 2.4-2.6 at 10pm, which would be better than what NBC does now on Monday and Friday, and probably better than what they could do on Thursday next fall.
And here are some numbers that should scare Hollywood talent plenty:
The merger of the network and studio put a slew of respected executives out of work. And the loss of the 10 p.m. timeslot to Mr. Leno will result in less employment opportunities for those who toil in the scripted world, a part of the business already under seige thanks to the rise of reality shows.
“Five hours of prime time lost means 50 writers and 50 actors and 50 directors are out of work,” a senior TV agent said.
And while others speculate that could promote more scripted shows at 10pm on cable, those shows and the jobs that go with them are almost certainly less lucrative than broadcast prime-time equivalents.
The show will be canceled within two years.
There’s also the chance people DVR ‘Leno’ and then watch it while ‘Conan’ is on, hurting NBC’s live numbers for both shows.
It’s a show that likely going to be really sensitive to competition on the one hand, but then again actually able to indirectly profit from good programms in the 9pm hour on other networks. In this season for example there seem to be a lot of people turning on their tvs on Tuesdays (NCIS, House, The Mentalist) and Thursdays (CSI, Grey’s Anatomy), they might appreciate something, that the can turn off any time and won’t need to watch every episode off, before they decide to turn in for the night. It’s not a bad move until its failed for real.
It won’t do much for NBC’s image though. What they really need is a good show that is actually watched and creates some buzz. Yes, FOX isn’t programming the 10pm hour, but FOX has Idol, House and 24. It’s got a well defined profile.
The kind of people who stay up to watch Leno (ar any late night talk show) are people who work weird hours, the unemployed, vampires, college students and people on 24 hour missile watch. Those are the only people that would DVR it. Regular people will watch what they usually do (non NBC shows)and not bother DVRing a show they wouldnt otherwise watch. People who dont watch much TV at 10pm now might start watching Leno. But thats about it.
With the overload of blood and violence cop shows and emptyheaded reality crap, T.V. programming is the wasteland that really has no interest for anyone with half a brain anymore. Leno or Conan or Letterman, whoever, just silly drivel to try and get through the night.
How is it they earn 2.6 million on Monday at 10:00 I wonder. My Own Worst Enemy is doing terribly.
I know there are a lot of things that go into revenue beyond the “price per ad” data we occassionally get here, but it does seem odd that My Own Worst Enemy generates the most revenue when the ad rates at the beginning of the season show SVU, L&O, and ER with rates for a 30-second spot. ($99,000 for Enemy vs. $146,000 for SVU).
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/10/05/sunday-night-football-has-falls-highest-30-second-ad-pricing/5697
As soon as I posted, it dawned on me… The product placement deal for the cars in Enemy probably make the difference.
I want to know what they, NBC, will do when Leno isn’t new? Guest hosts? Reruns?
I like the who Leno at 10pm idea.
18-35 and 18-49 numbers drop a lot at the ten eastern hour. If I’m snowed in for a week I’ll do the exact percentage prime time night by night. This was a desperate but also decent business decision. I say it works – and if it works for only two years, who cares? In the long run wer’re all dead.
Aha! Good job Holly.
I didn’t think about product placement.
They lose DVD money. A DVD set cost at least $20, they only give the writers like .0005 of a cent so they must make some good money on each set sold.
I’m not happy about losing 5 potential shows. I DVR 100% of everything I watch anyway, so it makes no difference to me what night or time shows are on. I don’t currently watch any on NBC’s 10 PM shows, but I definitely won’t watch Leno. With reality and Leno, FX, USA, and TNT are rapidly become the networks with the best TV shows.
This Leno thing does seem to be a good short-term business decision. If NBC can broadcast Leno at 10, they can focus on developing something buzzworthy for the 8 or 9pm EST hours. The risk: what if nothing buzzworthy is developed? What if everything goes the way of “Heroes” (good for a season) or MOWE (kinda bombs)? They might have a chance to build a Seinfeld-like comedy block around The Office and 30 Rock; but MNIE and K&K cannot be part of that, IMHO. Within a year or two, can NBC find the next “ER” or the next “Law and Order?” You never know. Breakout hits can only happen if no one is expecting them
clutz, I am with you 100%. As much as we hammer networks for their mistakes, they’re *trying* to improve their businesses. Sometimes they do (Mentalist, Fringe), many times they don’t. But with this move NBC is effectively saying “We can’t do better. We give up.” That’s a bit sad.
Bill,
Let’s hope “Fringe” does not go the way of Heroes – plotlines too convoluted to care about, and characters that morph into silly caricatures.
(I’m one of the fans that gave up on Heroes. According to that Kring guy, I don’t “get it” or I’m too impatient maybe? Maybe I ain’t smart enough to understand them daggone superpowers n’at.)
I see your point about giving up. I hope, for NBC’s sake, that sacrificing this one hour will pay off with some great new programming. Sadly, I can see the hour paying off in terms of cash and a bunch more reality crap too. In my industry, we call NBC types “low cost providers.” If all you need is something cheap to get you by for a short time, you know who to see
Fox has done this for years as Fox News is on where I live. As far as more scripted shows on cable during the 10pm hour there already is a significant presence of that before this I doubt it’ll increase by that much.
In my opinion NBC have at least one better option to broadcast at 10 pm instead of the Tonight Show.
Why don’t make a new kind of scripted show, during only one season, with 150-200 episodes, a fusion between a soap opera/latin telenovela and drama series, airing five nights a week!
i think this could due must better than jay leno, and is lesse expensive than 5 different shows!