The episode of NBC’s The Office following the Super Bowl is likely to be seen by 25 million viewers if the recent past viewership of the “Program After The Super Bowl” is any indication. The viewership numbers for the “Program After The Super Bowl” are pretty crazy, hardly the relatively smooth increase shown by the Super Bowl itself, but I feel pretty good about a 25 million viewer guess.
Looking at the viewership of recent post-SB shows has last year’s House at 29 million, 2007’s Criminal Minds at 26 million, 2006’s Grey’s Anatomy at 37 million, the Simpsons at 23 million, but those shows were all somewhat more mainstream viewership shows, The Office is not quite the mainstream viewer magnet, so I think something a bit on the low side of those recent numbers is likely. NBC hasn’t had the Super Bowl in 11 years, so their recent history is no particular use.
For those who saw my mistaken Chuck post earlier and are shaking their heads, as they say, “It’s not you, it’s me.”
What do you think the viewership of The Office following the Super Bowl will be and why?
Guess the viewership of The Office following the Super Bowl
- 20-25 million (33%, 318 Votes)
- 25-30 million (24%, 236 Votes)
- <20 million (22%, 216 Votes)
- 30-35 million (11%, 107 Votes)
- >35 million (10%, 90 Votes)
Total Voters: 967
Loading ...
| Super Bowl | Year | Network | Program After The Game | Rating | Share | Avg. Homes (million) | Avg. Viewers (million) |
| XLII | 2008 | FOX | House | 15.7 | 27 | 17.719 | 29.045 |
| XLI | 2007 | CBS | Criminal Minds | 15.1 | 26 | 16.770 | 26.314 |
| XL | 2006 | ABC | Grey’s Anatomy | 21 | 34 | 23.106 | 37.881 |
| XXXIX | 2005 | FOX | Simpsons | 13.0 | 22 | 14.228 | 23.074 |
| XXXVIII | 2004 | CBS | Survivor All-Star | 17.9 | 32 | 19.415 | 33.535 |
| XXXVII | 2003 | ABC | Alias | 10.6 | 20 | 11.283 | 17.362 |
| XXXVI | 2002 | FOX | Malcolm In The Middle | 11.5 | 21 | 12.117 | 21.445 |
| XXXV | 2001 | CBS | Survivor II | 24.5 | 39 | 25.076 | 45.369 |
| XXXIV | 2000 | ABC | The Practice | 15.3 | 27 | 15.420 | 23.847 |
| XXXIII | 1999 | FOX | Family Guy -Preview | 12.6 | 21 | 12.560 | 22.005 |
| XXXII | 1998 | NBC | Third Rock from the Sun | 19.7 | 34 | 19.260 | 33.662 |
| XXXI | 1997 | FOX | X-Files | 17.2 | 29 | 16.730 | 29.098 |
| XXX | 1996 | NBC | Friends | 29.6 | 46 | 28.400 | 52.925 |
| XXIX | 1995 | ABC | Extreme Special | 14.2 | 25 | 13.350 | 22.594 |
| XXVIII | 1994 | NBC | John Laroquette Show | 12.3 | 22 | 11.590 | 17.708 |
| XXVII | 1993 | NBC | Homicide Special | 18.0 | 31 | 16.760 | 28.121 |
| XXVI | 1992 | CBS | 60 Minutes | 16.8 | 30 | 15.470 | 24.821 |
| XXV | 1991 | ABC | Davis Rules | 15.5 | 25 | 14.430 | 26.695 |
| XXIV | 1990 | CBS | Grand Slam | 18.6 | 30 | 17.130 | 30.765 |
| XXIII | 1989 | NBC | Sun Nite Movie | 20.9 | 36 | 18.890 | |
| XXII | 1988 | ABC | Wonder Years | 17.9 | 31 | 15.860 | 28.976 |
| XXI | 1987 | CBS | Hard Copy Special | 19.8 | 33 | 17.310 | |
| XX | 1986 | NBC | NBC Sunday Night Movie | 16.5 | 25 | 14.170 | 39.729 |
| XIX | 1985 | ABC | Macgrouder and Loud | 22.8 | 38 | 19.360 | |
| XVIII | 1984 | CBS | Airwolf Special(s) | 21.6 | 36 | 18.100 | 27.874 |
| XVII | 1983 | NBC | A-Team Special | 26.3 | 39 | 21.910 | 21.910 |
| XVI | 1982 | CBS | 60 Minutes | 26.2 | 36 | 21.350 | |
| XV | 1981 | NBC | Chips | 16.3 | 26 | 12.680 | |
| XIV | 1980 | CBS | 60 Minutes | 33.0 | 50 | 25.179 | 40.746 |
| XIII | 1979 | NBC | Brothers and Sisters | 21.0 | 32 | 15.650 | 31.722 |
| XII | 1978 | CBS | All In the Family | 30.4 | 47 | 22.160 | 35.472 |
| XI | 1977 | NBC | Disney’s “Kit Carson | 25.8 | 37 | 18.370 | 42.816 |
| X | 1976 | CBS | Phoenix Open Golf | 16.5 | 31 | 11.480 | 22.363 |
| IX | 1975 | NBC | NBC Sunday Night News | 16.7 | 28 | 11.440 | 15.924 |
| VIII | 1974 | CBS | Perry Mason** | 12.7 | 20 | 8.410 | 15.058 |
| VII | 1973 | NBC | Disney’s “The Mystery | 28.4 | 44 | 18.400 | |
| VI | 1972 | CBS | 60 Minutes | 20.3 | 36 | 12.610 | |
| V | 1971 | NBC | Bing CrosbyPro-Am Golf Champshps | 19.2 | 36 | 11.540 | |
| IV | 1970 | CBS | Lassie | 21.5 | 34 | 12.580 | |
| III | 1969 | NBC | G.E. College Bowl | 11.7 | 21 | 6.670 | |
| II | 1968 | CBS | Lassie | 26.3 | 41.2 | 14.730 | |
| I | 1967 | CBS | Lassie | 15.6 | 25.3 | 8.560 | |
| I | 1967 | NBC | Disney’s “The Mosby Raiders” Part II | 21.7 | 33.7 | 11.910 |
2006-8 numbers are Live+Same Day, all others are Live Viewing.
Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
-
For comparison, here are the historical Super Bowl ratings themselves.
I voted 25-30, but that’s definitely the upper limit. The Office won’t be breaking any records, that’s for sure.
With special guest stars such as Jessica Alba and Jack Black, The Office should easily get 25 million viewers. I don’t think it will get over 35 million though — it’s not a mega hit show like Friends or Grey’s Anatomy. If Third Rock From the Sun was able to get 30+ million viewers, I don’t see why The Office can’t.
The special 3D episode of Chuck should get 12-13 million viewers. I think a lot of families with young kids will tune in; similar to those Christmas Cartoon Specials.
I’m thinking it will definitely top 20 million. No way will it get over 35.
It’s gonna beat Alias that’s for sure. It’ll probably beat Malcolm in the Middle and The Simpsons. So I’m thinking round 25 million? I’m hoping for more but I’m trying not to get my hopes to high up. Definately in 20-25, but here’s hoping it’s higher.
Jack Black & Jessica Alba should help get football fans to stick around.
Ahhh ‘86 & 89…Original movies were aired…those were the days!
I think it will be a lot but it doesn’t necessarily mean that 25-35 million people are actually watching it, it is probably just going to be background noise for super bowl parties, and people that have to work early may just turn their TV off but their cable/dish box is still on so it is going to say that they watched it but they actually didn’t.
Oh and this is the first time in 10 years NBC will have the Superbowl…they must be drooling at the mouth…well becoming more like the CW next year…
(you know leno- 5 nights a week)
Watch Wipeout instead………
Why isn’t Chuck after Super Bowl? They have the 3D episode!
Ricardo, writing as someone who originally (mistakenly) posted this with the story “3-D Chuck after the Super Bowl likely to be seen…”, I agree! What was NBC thinking!
NBC was probably thinking this: we’re not going to promote a show that’s not produced by NBC Universal after the Super Bowl. Chuck is Warner Brothers produced. Although House (which is an NBCU produced show!) aired on FOX last year after the Super Bowl, I think Fox didn’t really have an option, especially with the WGA Strike.
I think it’s more a question of why are they bothering with 3D Chuck than why The Office. While in the long term, airing a new show or trying to promote a lower rated show would be a wise choice, The Office is more likely to get 25 mil+ after the Super Bowl, and NBC wants to cash in on that. I just don’t think Chuck would be able to get what The Office will post-Super Bowl, and I guess NBC agrees with me.
Yeah, I’m not seeing massive numbers for this either and I don’t think it will do anything for Office viewership in the future.
Robert, I disagree. It may be WB produced, but the ad dollars go to NBC. If airing Chuck after the Super Bowl meant that its regular ratings could increase significantly, NBC would be the beneficiary of that. Why wouldn’t NBC want that?
In an archived Programming Insider issue, the 1989 NBC movie after the Super Bowl was actually Part 1 of a mini-series (remember those on TV?) entitled “Brotherhood of the Rose” which drew 31.97 million viewers.
Julia, I’m not a big believer that anything NBC could do — including airing after the Super Bowl would change Chuck’s (or any other show’s) ratings for the long-term. It won’t bump the Office’s ratings over the long haul either, but for that Sunday they could probably sell the ads for it for a bit more than they could Chuck’s. Plus, promoting The Office is somewhat by default promoting The Office on DVD which has done pretty well.
Unfortunately NBC isn’t working with very much. I don’t think 30 Rock has ever been expanded to an hour where The Office has frequently. None of the Law & Orders work because if they air right after the Super Bowl on all coasts as House did last year, it’s too early for Law & Order: SVU on the west coast. It seems like Office, Chuck, and Biggest Loser were the only options. In terms of maximizing profits, I think they made the right choice.
You sure 24.821 million viewers watched the 1992 60 Minutes special, which featured Bill & Hillary Clinton? According to Marc Berman in 2003 (http://www.mediaweek.com/mw/esearch/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1805239), it attracted 33.96 million.
Anthony, that table was copied directly from the Nielsen data, so no typo potential from me. Other than that I cannot explain the difference.
Anthony, while we honestly aren’t sure, we ARE sure that in the spreadsheet Nielsen provides called “Program after the Super Bowl” the data listed above is what’s in it. Even for the 1992 60 Minutes.
too slow…
It could be that Marc’s article was based on the overnights and the Nielsen data Bill is using is based on the final numbers. Since sports events rarely end on time, Marc’s data could include a few minutes of the Superbowl.
I’m gonna watch Wipeout.. must be the only one.
Any chance to include a more detailed ratings list, like the one here, for all the 42 Super Bowls, with that current graph?
What an awesome chart. I wonder what mastermind decided it would be a good idea to follow Super Bowl III with the GE College Bowl.
Also love that Super Bowl X – surely one of the greatest games of all-time – was followed by tape-delayed final round coverage of the Phoenix Open. And this at a time when CBS was weighted down with more great shows than probably any network has ever had.
“Well, what do you think for after the Super Bowl? MASH? All in the Family? Mary Tyler Moore? 60 Minutes?”
“Hmmm…tough call. Wait a minute! How about tape-delayed coverage of a minor golf tournament?!?!”
I’ll bet you Berman’s number for the Bill and Hillary show is the number of people who watched any portion of the broadcast.
Mikey, I’m baffled too. This was a little over 7 years after the Heidi Game debacle on NBC. You’d think by 1976, TV networks would know the vast popularity of NFL football, especially the Super Bowl.
Anthony, Yes, I will do a Super Bowl reference post with a big table soon. I’m doing an NFL postseason post next.
different times Mikey, back when Super Bowls aired in the afternoon on the EAST coast. The Phx Open coverage ran from 5:55p-7p Eastern time.
Robert, while I’m not totally convinced about whether the post-Super Bowl spot has any long term effect or not (Grey’s went from hit to mega hit after the Super Bowl), I agree that NBC is airing the show that will make them the most money that night. But if the show that could get the biggest price tag were not an NBCU show, I doubt they would have any qualms over airing that one.
it seems now a days that no matter what show they air after the super bowl, it doesn’t produce the long term advantage that it once did. Disappointing
I fire a new show up there, the short term gain is negligible.
But weren’t most of those shows doing better than the Office is now and lets face it isn’t the office more of a ‘type’ of selective humour and will appeal to a smaller audience. I think it depends if ABC and CBS air reruns or not, cos i think people would tune into Greys Anatomy than the Office.
Julia, I agree with you. If NBC had a pack of NBCU shows pulling 3.0 ratings in the 18-49 demo but it had a WB show that was pulling a 5.0 (a problem it would more than love to have) there’s no doubt in my mind it would air it. If it had a bunch of shows all in the same range, I think it would air its own show.
The reason its airing The Office isn’t because its an NBCU show, it’s because it’s the best scripted show it has in terms of 18-49 viewing and by a pretty wide margin.
Ahhhhhhhhhh… I’m still bitter that FOX didn’t air Terminator after the Super Bowl last year. That would have made more sense than House, I think.
God, I hate FOX.
That would’ve been nice…
Noah, airing Terminator doesn’t make any sense. The show would be exactly where it is now. A disaster and something to laugh at. They would have wasted a time slot where they could actually make money on. And Terminator pulls just a fantastic under 2.0 demo. yep that’s the show you want to air after the super bowl…………..
Uh Jimmy, do remember that the pilot got 22 million viewers when premiering after some other football game. I’m pretty sure they could’ve made some money by airing it after the Super Bowl, which is the most-watched program of the year, right?
Not saying its ratings would be different from what they are now, but there’s no doubt that TSCC could have pulled some serious numbers with the Super Bowl at the time (especially if it premiered then).
Thank you, Rachel.
That’s why I had brought it up…
TSCC pulled 18-19 million after a leage championship game (I can’t remember which one) that got 45-50 million.
Logicly, TSCC could’ve gotten 36 million had it premiered after the Super Bowl. I think it could’ve reached 40 givven the amount of promotion it would’ve been given.
*leage – league
*givven – given
“back when Super Bowls aired in the afternoon on the EAST coast”
Do you guys have a chart that shows the time at which these shows aired? Or the kickoff times of the games themselves?
I guess I should know this but I don’t. I did not know there was a time that the Super Bowl would have ended prior to Primetime.
Mikey, I haven’t posted the table yet, but the historical Nielsen information we have for the Super Bowl does not include the start times. It does include the dates, which have moved from mid-January to early February over the years. A quick scan of Wikipedia showed no start times either, but I could have missed them.
I can’t see The Office getting over 20 million. I mean, it’s certainly possible, but it’s easily the second least watched show to ever get the slot, ahead of only Alias. While it’s more stnd-alone than that show, it still has never gotten over 11 million viewers for a single episode (Outside of its debut after an Apprentice premiere), so I don’t think it’s going to suddenly over double it’s previous series high. It also won’t help that this is looking to be the least anticipated Super Bowl in years.
I’m predicting about 19 million for the show. Though I’ll be pleasantly surprised if it does top 20 million.
Oh, and I’m a little late, but congrats, Juju.
The Super Bowl used to air in the afternoons up until the 80s I believe when the networks wanted those high numbers to get into prime time then in 2004 they started entering into February sweeps.
My guess is that this will be one of the lowest post Super Bowl shows of all-time. The Office not being a multi-cam comedy hurts its chances of getting over 30 million viewers. Look at Friends back in ‘96 as that still remains the highest rated program after the super bowl to date with 52 million viewers. That was one of the last times NBC also had the Super Bowl. The A-Team was also successful after the Super Bowl for the network with viewers over 40-50 million.
So NBC really wasted their post-Super Bowl spot with The Office, which will never be a mainstream hit and might be coming up on the downside of its run. NBC should’ve aired a brand new comedy or cop drama to rebuild the network.
Its going to bite them in the ass in coming years just like the Leno move.
I dunno, Jon, Third Rock from the Sun nearly tripled its highest season average when it got the post Super Bowl spot. I don’t have info on its highest rated individual episode apart from the Super Bowl one, but I assume that with a season average of 11.6, it wasn’t too much higher. While I wouldn’t be surprised if The Office doesn’t hit 20 mil, I think it’s quite likely to get at least 22.
And thanks.
I’m not so sure The Office even will beat Alias record low results.. I mean, during Alias’ superbowl season it had more viewers than The Office have right now, plus I would say Alias was a more mainstream show than the Office.
I voted <20, but I think that was a bit too harsh, The Office should have about 25 million viewers.
NBC should look at history and use that time to get America hooked on The Biggest Loser as CBS did with Survivor years ago. It’s gaining on ‘Idol’ and America is needing the example of these weight-loss heros to help them win the Super Bowl against fat.( yes…a tacky cliche’) Time to get in the game instead of being couch potatoes and just watching it. An update on Losers from all the past seasons with before and after would be awesome.
Hmmm, this is hard to say. I think it has a chance of breaking the ALIAS record of recent flops after a SUPERBOWL. If they wanted to pick the show that would have provided them the largest revenue from commercials they would have chosen HEROES. That would have commanded more money than THE OFFICE.
CHUCK isn’t a bad choice. The most viewers it had ever had was the pilot with a little over 9 million viewers. Throw in the 3D, etc. it would have been a good choice if the SUPERBOWL could have attracted more audience for the show on a regular basis. This season has seen a loss of about 1.1M viewers on average compared to last season. Who knows but I don’t see THE OFFICE growing from this, and CHUCK can only grow in my opinion.
I’ll be surprised if Monday CHUCK does better than 9M viewers.
So NBC didn’t make the choice that would have brought the most revenue, they made a choice they thought was “safe,” but in reality is just wasting an opportunity. I mean if not CHUCK I’d have premiered a new show in the slot.