This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. For the main post and information on other networks as well as unscripted shows, click here.
The disaster of the CW’s deal to lease Sunday night to MRC Capital was complete. Terrible ratings, reports of non-payment by MRC and an early cancellation of the deal in November. With the MRC shows gone, the rest of the CW lineup might all survive until next season, but because of Sunday’s drag on the network average, Privileged’s prospects look better than they actually are. I think it’s marginal that it gets renewed.
I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I’m leaning towards renewal for them.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| CW SHOWS | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY | CW | 288 | 1,110 | 0.26 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE | CW | 345 | 1,110 | 0.31 | cancelled |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS | CW | 860 | 1,110 | 0.77 | |
| THE GAME | CW | 953 | 1,110 | 0.86 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 984 | 1,110 | 0.89 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,656 | 1,110 | 1.49 | |
| 90210 | CW | 1,714 | 1,110 | 1.54 | |
| ONE TREE HILL | CW | 1,809 | 1,110 | 1.63 | |
| GOSSIP GIRL | CW | 1,817 | 1,110 | 1.64 | |
| SMALLVILLE | CW | 1,968 | 1,110 | 1.77 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Now that you’ve broken the nets into separate posts, any chance you’ll include 18-34 data in the CW entries?
Jack, it’s a fair question in terms of the CW, but we don’t regularly see season-to-date info for 18-34, let alone 18-34 year old women. We could attempt to track it down, but because we’re comparing the CW only to the CW and the 18-49 average seems a good predictor — even for the CW, it doesn’t seem worth it.
maybe I missed something, but to me Privileged does not look safe. It looks just a bit away from being safe.
johnthemon, I plead headline discretion.
I thought Tom Wellings contract was up after 8 seasons of Smallville. I am a fan of the show and would watch season 9, but is season 9 possible? It sure looks like a steep climb for the CW.
Sue, our Renew/Cancel chart can’t take into account non-ratings factors that effect the decision making process at the networks/shows. There are a number of those factors that might spell the end for Smallville, but on ratings alone it’s solid.
I read that Tom welling has been offered an increase in pay to stay for an additional year on Smallville. Don’t know if he’s interested but the CW needs something it can call a hit to launch next year.
I hope to see Privileged, Sylista, and of course, SUPERNATURAL! next season. I had no idea how 90210 was doing….bit surprised.
I am shocked that 90210 is beating “Supernatural”. I don’t watch either show, but I remember that “Supernatural” fans used to be rabid, and the 1st two eps of 90210 were inane. What happened?
digdug, I believe 90210 is beating Supernatural in the demos listed not in total viewers. Supernatural has been doing very well in total viewers this year, relatively speaking.
Total viewers numbers are meaningless in terms of a show’s advertising success. Usually the 18-49 adults number is the best indication, but for the CW adults 18-34 is likely the best. Unfortunately, we do not see season to date average number for 18-34, only 18-49.
Sue appreantly Tom is close to sign of he dodn’t do it already….it all deppends of the Ostroff…which when her track of “great mannagement decisions” its not a good sign…..
“IF he didn’t do it already” its what I meant
Yeah, a lot of rumors are floating around that Welling has already signed on for S9 or is close to signing. The ball, it seems, is in the CW’s court. However, it seems that the CW is more interested in “Women/18-34″ and not an overall demographic of “All Viewers/18-49″. So even if “SV” is scoring high with this demo, it could be more men than women & then I think the CW would think the expense of the show is not worth it.
Dawn Ostroff would be an idiot if she didn’t keep Smallville for next year! Huge mistake, without Smallville their network would fail.
Haven’t we pretty much confirmed that Dawn is an idiot though?
Tyson, it’s far more likely that Smallville won’t want to stick around than CW not wanting to keep it.
Priviledged better come back, it was my favorite show!
I didn’t know it was doing so bad );