This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. For the main post and information on other networks as well as unscripted shows, click here.
NBC newcomers Life, Knight Rider and Kath & Kim have all performed badly enough this season to make them unlikely to be renewed. Graybeard Law & Order also finds itself in position to not return next year. Add to that the fact that Jay Leno will be taking over the 10pm hour from Monday-Friday next season, and NBC will not likely be giving marginal shows aother chance.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| NBC SHOWS | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 1,332 | 3,590 | 0.37 | finishing on Sat |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 1,976 | 3,590 | 0.55 | cancelled |
| LIFE – WED ONLY (1) | NBC | 2,553 | 3,590 | 0.71 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2,636 | 3,590 | 0.73 | cancelled |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,696 | 3,590 | 0.75 | |
| LAW AND ORDER | NBC | 2,916 | 3,590 | 0.81 | |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 3,108 | 3,590 | 0.87 | |
| CHUCK | NBC | 3,348 | 3,590 | 0.93 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,434 | 3,590 | 0.96 | |
| LAW AND ORDER:SVU | NBC | 4,506 | 3,590 | 1.26 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,552 | 3,590 | 1.27 | final season |
| 30 ROCK | NBC | 4,616 | 3,590 | 1.29 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,343 | 3,590 | 1.49 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,735 | 3,590 | 1.60 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
(1) Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Craig, Nielsen has measured DVR viewing since January 2006. While online viewing is measured by the networks, relatively no money is made from it, so currently it doesn’t matter to the future of a show.
I have a question – while DVR’s may not generate any ad-revenue, what about Hulu which does have ads – (albeit short) that can’t simply be skipped over? There IS advertisment money being made from that, right?
ddsf, Hulu revenue, and any ad revenue from streaming on the networks own websites is currently tiny compared to traditional TV revenue.
really too bad for NBC this season (and pretty much every season in recent memory). I watch more shows on their network than any other. Heroes, The Office, Chuck, 30 Rock…hopefully they fair better in the spring.
I think that NBC will renew ‘Law & Order’ over ‘Chuck’ if that is the choice that will have to be made. ‘Law & Order’ can get a 3 demo when it is not against ‘CSI: NY’ and how can NBC resist season #20?
If NBC’s original plan to put L&O on sunday either 9 or 10 pm would’ve happened L&O would not have been in this mess to begin with.
thedemonhog is right, NBC will take L&O over Chuck any day.
Well you don’t need to be a genius to figure out that NBC would pick Law and Order over Chuck any day, but do keep in mind, those 2 shows are slated on different times. You would never see L&O during 8pm.
Additionally the auxiliary income from the Universal Media produced show that is Law and Order, such as DVD sales, syndication fees etc all go to NBC unlike the Warner Brothers produced Chuck.
I dont see L&O being canceled, Chuck is much more likely to be canceled.
Really, the only thing L&O has going for it right now is that it’s been on forever. Aside from that, Chuck is obviously the better choice for renewal. Chuck has been getting decent numbers WITH its regular competition still on. The only time L&O does well is when it doesn’t have any competition, and even then Chuck beats it in the 18-34 demo.
Personally, I don’t think either will be canceled. I think Chuck will get a regular season renewal and L&O will be held for mid-season. Worst case scenario for L&O is that it gets moved to USA for its final season.
Why would NBC cancel Law and Order? If they want they could put it on Sundays at 9pm once football is done. Honestly when Law and Order pulls 10 million viewers in its 19th season, thats not that bad. NBC just needs to keep it away from other crime dramas on CBS. (CSI:NY)
really scheduling is harder than people make it sound. You have a lot of shows being produced, and a lot of factors about where to put them to avoid similar shows and keep a strong line-up.
I am holding out hope that “Knight Rider” (yeah I know, most hated show on this site) finds itself an audience, and the numbers come up. They have rebooted the show, and it is a LOT better than it was! The episode in two weels looks amazing when KARR returns, I can’t wait. It is one of the only network shows I make time for every week, and I know that if given a chance it will find its audience. That is one of the problems with television today, not enought time to work out the kinks, and build an audience before cancellation.
I’m glad “Chuck” is likely to get another season – but I’ll mourn the loss of “life” – I think its much better than “the mentalist”, which I’ve also been watching, but not enjoying as much as “life”. However, given the constant moving around of “life” and its lack of publicity it’s not surprising if it doesn’t get a season 3.
I think out of the 4 likely to not get another season, Law and Order does have the best chance of coming back for one more season. Probably a shorter season though, I believe ER has less episodes than usual since it is ending in March instead of May. So, NBC could either hold it and air it at 10pm Sundays in January after football or air it Wednesdays at 9pm starting in September and have a winter finale similar to ER. I realize the numbers don’t support this, but it would be nice for NBC to treat the show well, they gave ER this last season since the strike interrupted last year and I think it is good when a show gets to start a season knowing it is their last, I know L&O isn’t really character driven like ER, but fans would likely still want the writers to have time to end the show the way the want to and not have the network end it for them.
I think Life, Knight Rider and Kath & Kim (and Lipstick Jungle of course) are done! There is just no way that NBC could justify bringing back ANY of these shows. Life has had a second season to prove itself (airing after Heroes for two episodes and being moved from the Friday dead-zone) and has simply not got the ratings. The other two shows started with modest/reasonable ratings and plummeted downwards – absolutely NO potential whatsoever.
As for Chuck and Law & Order.
Chuck:
Advantages: Very compatible with Heroes which will undoubtedly return for a fourth season. Modest performer but relatively strong in demo and total viewers when compared with other performers on NBC.
Disadvantages: Has shown no growth in timeslot – however, the ratings trend is stable.
Law & Order:
Advantages: Considerable syndication profits and is close to matching Gunsmoke’s 20 season record (if this is even a consideration in NBC’s mind – I HIGHLY doubt it).
Disadvantages: Negative ratings trend and generally only performs in the 10pm slot that will be filled Mon-Fri next season (and Sun in the Fall). Probably quite expensive despite budget cuts this and previous seasons.
CONCLUSION:
Chuck is almost a lock to return barring any shock numbers for Kings and/or anything else NBC debuts.
Law & Order will probably get a mid-season order of 13 odd episodes (as mentioned worst case scenario this airs on USA) and finish out with its 20th season. Not surprising if it is canceled though.
Knight Rider gained 600,000 viewers this week and was #1 in males which is its target demographic. I agree with John don’t write it off just yet. The reboot is eliminating 3 characters and returning the show to its roots of One Man Can Make a Difference. Which is what fans have been saying was wrong with it. The next two or three weeks may just save it.
Knight Rider gained 600,000 viewers this week and was #1 in males which is its target demographic. I agree with John don’t write it off just yet. The reboot is eliminating 3 characters and returning the show to its roots of One Man Can Make a Difference. Which is what fans have been saying was wrong with it. The next two or three weeks may just save it.
I Don’t think so, the CGI is still terrible, the acting’s even worse and there is zero plot of this show, I Hope this is the end of the knight rider tv franchise, cause this show is dead to me, I’m sticking to the original.
@Raymond
Chuck’s numbers dropped going into this season largely because of the 9 month hiatus because of the strike. Starting from the beginning of the second season to present, it has shown good consistent growth.
Plus, the 3D episode the day after the Super Bowl ought to help bring in a few more new viewers.
Plus, Chuck has gotten rave reviews from critics and has shown up on several Best Of 2008 lists.
It showed great audience growth in its first season and the second season is showing that same trajectory. I think its one of those shows that just needs to find its audience – NBC had faith in The Office and 30 Rock as well, and you see how they’ve been rewarded.
Plus, Chuck’s demo is in the top 3 most affluent on all of network TV I believe.
the problemof kath and kim is the nbc adaptation. very bad.
Did you watch MY OWN WORST ENEMY or was I the only one?
I thought the first 9 show got better and better…….
@ John
Knight Rider started with an audience, a farely strong one, but over the fall, people started abandoning the show. It had an audience…at first.
@ Steven
I don’t think it can be saved. It might pull some people back at first, but I think by May it will be worse than ever in the ratings and NBC will pull the plug.
So there’s a big debate about whether they’ll cancel L&O or Chuck. I’m gonna guess they keep Chuck. It gets 400,000 more viewers in the key demo then L&O, plus it has shown a positive trend, while L&O hasn’t. They won’t get the DVD and Syndication dough on Chuck, but I think the ratings will cancel that out. I don’t know if they’ll cancel L&O, or move it to USA, but I’m gonna guess it won’t be returning in the fall.
L@O isn’t going any where.
It’ll probably be picked up for mid-season, and even if it won’t be on USA, TNT was and I think is still eager to pick it up if and when L%O is canceled
i love the new knight rider. i no it bin a bit up and down but u got to give it a chance. theres a lot more storys they can do yet dont give up on it just yet. keep it coming big up the knight rider
NBC blows! CBS, please pick up Lipstick Jungle. At least CBS hangs in there for awhile. How I met Your Mother was not a huge hit right out of the gate but it is now. NBC is a joke
There is absolutely no way that CBS will pick up NBC’s cast offs.
i hope knight rider stays on i didnt like it that much at first but it it started to get lil better i know its nothing like the origanl but what i think it needs is to bring back some of the origanil into it get hassalhoff back in there thats what it needs.So dont right it off just yet.
They should cancel Heroes. That show has been dead since the end of season 1.
That would suck if L&O was cancelled because it has FINALLY gotten good again after many years of faltering. I am really digging the cast and storylines again and, after having not watched it for years, look forward to it each week. I think if it went to USA, they might not retain the cast.
We have been watching Chuck over here in the Netherlands, dowloaded while it isn’t being broadcasted. It does not have a lot of popularity yet though. We like it a lot and we hope that it will continue.
If they cancelled L&O, I would never watch NBC again.
THe only reason the ratings are low is that it is on all the time in re-runs. This is the only show in TV where you can watch the re-runs 5 times and never get tired of it
“Lipstick Jungle” is NOT canceled, and “Knight Rider” is doing extremely well now, even with “American Idol” and “New Christine” as competition for the same demographic. I wouldn’t write it off yet, but they should move it …
Knight Rider is doing extremely well? Did you see the ratings it got this week? It’s demo was 1.6!
Ben Silverman was TEN TIMES worse than Fred Silverman back in the late seventies!
I hear though that he has been canned, which can only be good news for fourth place NBC (Nothing But Cancellations, currently.)
“Knight Rider” (2009) lost its target demo this past week…it went from first to third. The show will not be picked up.
Nooooooo! Don’t cancel Lipstick Jungle – all us former (and getting older) Sex & the City watchers LOVE LOVE LOVE this show! It is just hitting its stride, and you really care about the characters. Please don’t!
Any of the readers of this board that are supporters of “Knight Rider” tonight is the night to get the word out about the show. It features the return of KITT’s nemesis KARR, and should prove to be one of the most action packed exciting episodes of “Knight Rider’s” limited run. Please if you want to see the show even get a chance at returning, Wednesday on NBC 8p.m., 7 Central.
This isn’t a really insightful article as it needs more research. Law & Order is going to be back for a 20th season — NBC hasn’t announced it yet as they usually wouldn’t have by this point. It has extremely loyal viewers and that’s not a bad thing in this era of fickleness. It’s the mothership and as long as SVU is on, the mothership will be too. Remember too — TNT and Wolf already essentially have an agreement to take the show there should NBC ever drop it. The show will not die.
Kath & Kim is so funny. I’m sorry that the majority of the viewers for shows like “My Name Is Earl” and “Chuck” are nerds. These are the people who schedule their lives around these television shows. Honestly Kath & Kim is original, and up to date. They should give it another chance. Also how can the # of viewers be accurate, what if I record the show and watch it with my ten friends??? It’s not accurate?
@Delirious – no, you’re not the only one. I’m rather upset about that one. I was pleasantly surprised by that show. I just don’t think enough people gave it a chance. It was getting really good by the end of the season, and now of course we’re left with a cliff hanger that will never be resolved.
Drop 30 ROCK PERIOD!!!! its lucky it has The Office as a lead in, otherwise, the ratings would be even worse. The show is poor..I guess Tina Fey’s clout, along with Loren Michaels has kept the wolves away…but it needs to go yesterday!!!!
I really want Life to come back, love Damien Lewis. I also love Chuck, and I heard it was on “the bubble”, I hope not– great show. I love “The Office”, and I can’t stand 30 Rock, bc just looking at Alec Baldwin makes me ill. Tina Fey is okay, but I think she is way overrated, and forget about Parks and Recreatons, its dumb. I much rather “Kath & Kime” over 30 Rock and Parks and Rec.!
Well if they intend to cancel Life, they should have at least come up with a good finale, thus what actually really happened.
I hope they give it at least one season more so they can come with the outcome of whole story, and end it properly and not like CBS did with Jericho (which is an awesome show).
KATH & KIM is so freakin funny, i will be soooooooo sad if it is canceled. Everyone should GIVE IT A CHANCE. i say cancel my name is earl! i just have never thought that show was THAT funny! which is weird because i LOVE jason Lee.