This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. For the main post and information on other networks as well as unscripted shows, click here.
CBS has tried to create a second “comedy block” this season on Thursday moving The New Adventures of Old Christine from Monday and slotting freshman Gary Unmarried. Both have been among CBS’s worst scripted performers, but will Christine be given the benefit of the doubt?
On the other hand, newcomer Worst Week got the best slot in CBS’s lineup for a new comedy, but has barely performed above average for the net. Reports are that CBS expected much more in that prime timeslot and that Worst Week will not be coming back next season.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| CBS SHOWS | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EX LIST, THE | CBS | 2,443 | 3,800 | 0.64 | cancelled |
| THE NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2,831 | 3,800 | 0.75 | |
| NUMB3RS | CBS | 2,953 | 3,800 | 0.78 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,061 | 3,800 | 0.81 | |
| UNIT, THE | CBS | 3,172 | 3,800 | 0.83 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER | CBS | 3,445 | 3,800 | 0.91 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,493 | 3,800 | 0.92 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,526 | 3,800 | 0.93 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 3,968 | 3,800 | 1.04 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 3,977 | 3,800 | 1.05 | |
| BIG BANG THEORY, THE | CBS | 4,516 | 3,800 | 1.19 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,652 | 3,800 | 1.22 | |
| MENTALIST, THE | CBS | 4,773 | 3,800 | 1.26 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 4,793 | 3,800 | 1.26 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 4,916 | 3,800 | 1.29 | |
| HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER | CBS | 4,981 | 3,800 | 1.31 | |
| CRIMINAL MINDS | CBS | 5,198 | 3,800 | 1.37 | |
| TWO AND A HALF MEN | CBS | 6,282 | 3,800 | 1.65 | |
| CSI | CBS | 6,779 | 3,800 | 1.78 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Gary builds on Christine’s numbers regularly if not always, doesn’t it? Stick it behind 2.5 Men, kill Worst Week and the no doubt more expensive Old Christine (which ABC will probably then buy), and boom, instant hit (or at the very least, nicely profitable show for another season). Being a network programmer is child’s play.
With the exception of the already cancelled ‘Ex-List’, CBS could get away with not cancelling anything. If I was CBS though, I would probably drop ‘The Unit’ and ‘Worst Week’.
Gary Unmarried is a terrible show, and Christine has drained every possible storyline, cancel one of them, Worst Week is the funniest new show on TV, and I bet that Gary or Christine would do alot worse than WW in monday timeslot.
A repeat of Gary Unmarried after Two and a Half Men had demos close to what a new episode of Worst Week got after Two and a Half Men. Obviously the show is terrible. Plus its not the normal CBS comedy. Bye bye Worst Week!
My husband and I LOVE THE UNIT- one of the few shows we watch. Of course, it will be cancelled.
Christine was a hit when it aired behind 2.5 Men, so I don’t see why they should cancel it now. Plus, Gary Unmarried and Chrstine have solid ratings on Wednesday compared to NBC/ABC, so I guess they’ll keep both shows. The only show I’m not so sure about is The Worst Week, though.
Johann, “Gary Unmarried and Chrstine have solid ratings on Wednesday compared to NBC/ABC”
That is one way to look at it. Another is that Gary and Christine would have done even worse against real competition from ABC and NBC. Even with weak competition they’re 2 of CBS’s 3 poorest performing scripted shows. Something’s gotta give.
I think GU and OC’s fate depends on how badly CBS wants that second comedy hour. If they really want to build it, they’ll keep one or both (maybe one as mid-season). The question isn’t whether the ratings this year are great (obviously, they’re not); it is whether CBS thinks the comedy hour will grow if they stick with it.
Why even have a second night of sitcoms? Just like with the fat guy comedies propped up by over fifties who liked Raymond, even the ” hits ” before 2.5 men are soft, though they are by now valuable 18-49 real estate. Then again, in this terrible environment, CBS could hold onto Christine and hope for a decent new sitcom later, because I just don’t see ABC or NBC being all that competitive, or Fox, for that matter, until Idol starts. By the way, what ever happened to Whedon’s Dollhouse that was supposed to be on Fox?
With the way Worst Week’s fate is looking, I would hope that CBS would keep both Gary Unmarried and Old Christine and try to retool the the line-ups a little. I would put Gary Unmarried behind Two and a Half Men next year (half-season, so a new comedy can be introduced as a mid-season), and put Old Christine and Rules of Engagement on Wednesday’s (both full season). That way, they can have use newest comedy in the best time-slot and leave Old Christine and Rules on Wednesday nights. I think that would be the best solution. If CBS does cancel Old Christine, I really hope that ABC will express interest in it again like last year and either make CBS nervous enough to pick it up, or they pick it up themselves and us it to anchor some of their new comedies, like The Middle (with Patricia Heaton, or Cougar Town, with Courtney Cox).
I don’t really think CBS has treated ‘Christine’ very well but perhaps that’s normal for any network in this day and age. I mean, it’s had multiple time slots. I still find the show funny and it’s the fact that Christine actually gets along with her ex-husband is refreshing. This show would be a plus for ABC to pick up. The only disadvantage is that it’s a few years old so maybe it costs more per episode to produce than some of the newer (so-called) sitcoms out there.
Personally, if CBS really wants to establish a comedy block on Wed, I think they should try moving BBT and HIMYM to Wednesday, put GU on Monday before T&HM and ROE after. This would allow a new comedy at the start of Monday (the Patrica Heaton pilot?). WW has gotten better in the later eps (I like the cast, but the central wedding premise wore so thin and hard to watch), but not enough for renewal. Then save OC for midseason.
If they drop the Wednesday comedy block, Stick with the current BBT, HIMYM, T&HM, and GU with ROE and maybe OC for midseason.
The Patricia Heaton pilot is actually for ABC. That’s why I said maybe pairing Old Christine with it if CBS decides to cancel it.
i really hate how some people are keeping christine and gary as if they were made to be with each other christine desevs to go back to the 930 time slot and the other 2 deserve to be canceled they are both horrible and cbs knows it….CBS DONT FIX WHAT WASENT BROKEN
I like Worst Week quite a bit. If I remember correctly, Rules of Engagement wasn’t doing very well after Two and a Half Men last year and was barely renewed with a half season. Why aren’t we talking about Rules of Engagement being canceled? It’s awful. Gary Unmarried and Christine are pretty weak shows too, in my opinion.
Kenneth, I don’t remember if Rules was in the same timeslot the entire season last year, but it did great for CBS http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/08/27/the-renewcancel-index-our-predictor-of-show-futures/4800
It’s hard to compare last season with this season, but nobody can say Rules did poorly last year.
You’re right, Bill – looks like I can kiss Worst Week goodbye. Oh well, I liked The Class and that got axed for being “good, but not good enough for Monday” too.
cbs gotta get over that not every show is as good as two and a half men they always cancel shows after two and a half men the ratings are good cbs just put christine back in its original slot and let it go!
shut up everybody. I like Gary Unmarried and New Adventures of Old Christine and your little opinions aren’t going to change anything that CBS does
A bit of good news for OC and GU:
“Idol’s Wednesday edition will move to 9 p.m. once the show reverts to its in-studio competition phase. That means new drama “Lie to Me,” which is initially airing behind “Idol” on Wednesdays at 9 p.m., will slide down to 8.”
Lie to Me won’t have to face CM and Lost, and OC and GU won’t have to face Idol.
Holly:
That is FANTASTIC news! I thought that once Idol started, Old Christine and Gary Unmarried would be destroyed in the ratings – which they would be – but now that Idol will be moving in a couple of weeks, maybe CBS will air some repeats on those dates and air new episodes once Idol moves. I’m just so happy that Old Christine and Gary will have the rest of the season to continue to build an audience and post ‘decent’ ratings, versus being against Idol… which is enough said!
Thanks for the update!
I’m crossing my fingers that Christine and Worst Week are the ones kept. From a personal point of view, Gary is terrible compared to the others. I think that CBS has done Worst Week a disservice by its timeslot changes and repeated on-again-off-again status.