Ok, I’m totally kidding about the exclusive, but the use of “exclusive” on some sites is humorous. Here was the actual headline from Michael Ausiello’s piece:
Exclusive: Ugly Betty Lives!
Here’s the key sentence:
ABC is on the verge of renewing Ugly Betty for a fourth season, sources confirm to me exclusively.
The above emphasis is mine. A lot of things can happen when something is on the verge. Quite often things that were on the verge of happening don’t actually happen! Let me be clear, I don’t doubt in any fashion that Mr. Auisello’s sources have confirmed to him that absolutely nothing is happening yet, but that things are trending in the direction of a positive outcome for Ugly Betty.
There’s zero risk to Ausiello or his sources if it goes the other way, some upside for both Ausiello and his sources in the short-term and if it turns out to be correct, great. If it turns out wrong, he’ll have moved on to the next thing by then and nobody will care. The same thing quite often happens with stock market analysts!
Anyway…
We got a few comments about Ausiello’s post and I got a couple of e-mails today asking if it was true. Is it true that Ugly Betty will be renewed? My best guess is ABC won’t make any official announcement until May. I don’t see any upside for ABC making the decision well before then. There are several reasons for this.
First, Ugly Betty is a show “on the bubble”. It performs worse than ABC’s overall average among 18-49 year olds, and it’s the worst performing scripted show ABC has that isn’t either already cancelled or in its final season. So from an ABC perspective, its numbers are bad – but not so bad that looking at them makes you wince.
The last couple of weeks of Life on Mars have been so bad, that as Bill would say, when you see them you’re forced to look away. It’s still faring better than Ugly Betty in our cancellation index, but its trend is very bad and could sink below Ugly Betty before all is said and done. But that doesn’t mean Ugly Betty will be saved.
There seems to be no upside for ABC to make any announcement soon. Ugly Betty will be going on hiatus soon, and ABC has what seems like a gazillion shows it will debut in the spring, including the shows that will temporarily fill Ugly Betty’s time slot. Making any decision on Ugly Betty without seeing any data on how the new shows will perform (because they haven’t even aired yet) seems kind of wacky to me.
My first inclination was that whatever sources Ausiello had were with the show, and not people at ABC who will make the decision, but the article says they are sources from ABC, and we’ve heard from other people that hey are indeed hearing this from ABC. I don’t buy it though and will debunk the primary reasons cited in the comments:
- They are getting a great deal on the show: That may in fact be true, but if they want to give ABC a good deal now, they’ll still want to give ABC a good deal in early May. I don’t see any upside for ABC to make its decision now based on that
- It will be an extra special good deal because Ugly Betty is close to syndication: if Ugly Betty was sitting on 78 episodes or so at the end of this season, I would buy this. But it will be in the low 60s and still need an additional two seasons to get to 100 episodes.
As somewhat of an aside, we get a lot of yakking in the comments about how you don’t need 100 episodes to get into syndication. And it’s true, obviously. Shows like Moonlight (which got 1.262 million viewers last Friday night, SciFi’s ninth highest ranked show for the week) and Jericho obviously made their way into the wild with much fewer than 100 episodes.
But the importance of 100 is still pretty high because that’s where networks and local channels feel comfortable about “stripping” the shows (running them Monday through Friday at the same time). Shows that can be stripped make a lot more money in syndication than shows like Moonlight and Jericho which can only air once per week.
It could be argued that traditional television is more about advertising and advertising sales than content creation. What pays the bills is a sales game, and in a bad economy sales sometimes gets even sales-ier! I suspect that what Mr. Ausiello and others are hearing is completely attributable to amped up salesmanship.
The economy is bad, advertisers are cancelling upfront agreements, shows which are cancelled carry a lower premium and if advertisers expect a show is likely to be cancelled, especially in this market, they will try to negotiate a lower fee. I believe the Ausiello report was probably aimed at combating that.
I also believe that we won’t receive any official word from ABC for at least a couple of months. I could definitely be wrong, but for now, that’s how I see it. Again, Ugly Betty’s numbers are on the bubble and in an area where ABC couldn’t really be faulted for canning it or keeping it. If it cancels it, it won’t surprise me. If it renews it, it won’t surprise me either. If we get any official announcement from ABC about its fate before April, that will surprise me.
If Ugly Betty dies, I die.
That actually made me laugh out loud, Jesse. Thanks!
Robert, ABC can’t cancel every show. I think LOM is dead, dead, dead. It’s a rotting corpse. They also aren’t going to like CASTLE much either when its numbers premier and I’m guessing CUPID will flop about worse than the first run. UGLY BETTY isn’t great, but for some reason a deal is being negotiated. I don’t know what the REAL reason is, but the reasons they’re bandying about have been repeated by Ausiello and others.
For whatever reason they like BETTY or maybe they want to placate one of the producers who has an IP they’re interested in (this is likely the real reason, which if so will come to light by May).
You’re definitely right that it isn’t good business. Then again, we’re talking about ABC. They renewed PUSHING DAISIES despite the signs that the show was dying in Season 1.
I’m sticking with salesmanship. I speculated about the IP interest in the comments yesterday and that does make some sense to me, but interested in IP isn’t the same thing as “here’s an order for 13 episodes!”
While they can’t cancel every show there are already at least six scripted shows that won’t be cancelled, and I don’t see that playing a huge factor in the decision making with UB.
Again, I won’t at all be surprised if they cancel it or keep it. I will be surprised if we know anything anytime soon.
I do believe that “Exclusive” has come to mean “told to me while no one else was listening, as far as I know”. We should use that term a lot more on the site!
Betty will be renewed. It seems like one of the bubble shows, but its always reliable for ABC since they don’t have anything else. And ABC has canceled a lot of shows this year, (mostly sophomore shows) so it seems likely that Betty will be back.
So if they cancel UB, i’ll be the only Jesse here? Interesting.
Seriously though, I don’t see it going anywhere. At least not this year.
I hate when Kristin from E! or Ausiello make the word EXCLUSIVE like a big deal.
I think UB will be renewed (or do i hope?) because Samantha Who? Which takes its place did terrible in the FALL without DWTS. Plus i think Cupid and Surving Suburbia will flop, In the motherhood will get Kath & Kim numbers: so will flop but not as bad as the previous but i think CASTLE will do well along with The Goode Family. Not sure about The Unusuals. Finally Ugly Betty i think has been given the harsh end of the stick with a long haitus: bad ABC!
UB’s numbers have been sinking like a rock this season and continue to go lower. If it touches a 2 in the demo, I’d be shocked at a renewal and at this rate, it looks quite possible later in the season. If the show does get renewed (and I hope it does – it’s a generally good show that need some work), it won’t wind up back on Thursdays, that’s for sure.
ABC is tough to predict because they’re in yet another season without a new break-out, and their big guns are registering big declines. None of ABC’s new series will be renewed, and it’s pretty much starting from scratch on Tuesdays and Wednesday yet again this fall. And yes, I know they will likely air DWTS there, but that show has yet to show a positive impact on whatever follows it.
Oh, and I highly doubt that UB will be stripped. It will wind up on Lifetime, if anywhere.
@Doug
The problem I see with UB going to Lifetime is that they already streamlined costs to have S3. Moving to NY, and cutting a regular character. Unless talent is willing to take pay cuts, it is not likely.
On the other hand, Anna Ortiz, Betty’s sister, announced she is pregnant. She could become a recurring. That would mean that Betty’s nephew would probably phased out. That is another way to cut costs. They would call it creative decision, like the termination of Nicolette Sheridan in Desperate Housewives.
One of the reasons Betty will be renewed is because they have no breakout hits this season, nor last season. The shows likely renewed for next season are Lost, Desperate Housewives, Grey’s Anatomy, Ugly Betty, Brothers & Sisters, Private Practice, and Samantha Who?. ABC may as well keep Betty around.
There gonna renew Ugly Betty. The show still does pretty decent during its timeslot plus its getting close to Syndication numbers. Also remember, ABC pretty much got rid of almost all there shows. 3 them are canceled while 2 are in there final season and ofcorse Boston Legal ended to. Plus we can tell that LOM is gonna get the boot to. Plus I think ABC really likes Ugly betty alot. Just make it to season 5 betty…
I love how people don’t even read the post or else just completely disregard what it says and then comment.
Fugly Betty needs to die. Send her to the LOST Island. Maybe the smoke monster will “disARM” her like it did to that one guy last night.
I didn’t mean that it would be sent to Lifetime for new episodes, but instead in syndication. These types of shows don’t do well in off-network syndication, unless ABC studios wants to cut each episode down to 1/2 hour (which they very well could).
I checked into it, and was told it fits a “demo,” that they’re interested in. I wasn’t told what demo. They are in talks for renewal now, but talks are talks and negotiations break down all the time.
would that be the YOUNG FEMALE demo?
Of COURSE it would be.
let me cover my mouth so nobody hears the gasping.
Robert, I’d figure they’d say “18-34 females,” to me rather than “a target demo,” but if I was guessing it would be Latina viewers. I wasn’t that interested so I didn’t press it and instead tried to get the lowdown on LOM. Which isn’t going to be renewed. That decision seems nearly final. I’ll let you know the day they let the producers know if I hear it like I did with PD and DSM.
When Samantha Who and the Motherhood sitcoms sub for Ugly Betty, the resultant Nielsen ratings will gave ABC a whole ‘nother appreciation for our dear Betty. Betty will be renewed in a heartbeat……just a prediction, no inside info here.
I don’t think any of the new sitcoms of ABC will be a hit and Samantha Who will be no good too. The show has only 6 million viewers without a leadin from DWTS! That’s is such a big problem for the show. Ugly Betty doesn’t have a lead-in and its been very consisted this season.
Bring back Betty!
Robert, I liked how you slipped in that ML data! and you’re right – TV is more about advertising and advertising sales than content creation – something has to pay for all those production costs.
Ugly Betty is my favorite show. Please renew it!