The Academy Awards (now The Oscars) show is still one of the biggest ratings events in television, and its ratings had held up far better than most long running events until the turn of the 21st century. But a variety of changes in the last 10 years seem to have taken their toll, including shifting the broadcast from Monday at 9pm to Sunday at 8:30pm in 1999. Last years show, at just over 32 million viewers was the lowest rated ever. It’s Sunday, February 22 at 8pm Eastern this year, count on that to knock the ratings down another notch (the 2006 show also started at 8pm).
It could also be the movies/stars, although its hard to imagine how those could change so systematically to knock the average viewership down from a mean of around 45 million viewers to only 40 million from 2000-2008. I’ll be the first to admit not being in touch with the zeitgeist of the movie industry, so I’m not remotely qualified to guess. What do you think?
Academy Awards TV Ratings Data, 1953-2008:
| Year | Net | HH Rating | HH Share | Homes (million) | Viewers (million) | Best Picture | $/ 30 sec. ad | |
| 2008 | ABC | 18.7 | 29.0 | 21.073 | 32.006 | No Country For Old Men | $1,820,000 | |
| 2007 | ABC | 23.6 | 37.0 | 26.317 | 40.172 | The Departed | $1,665,800 | |
| 2006 | ABC | 23.1 | 35.0 | 25.405 | 38.939 | Crash | $1,646,800 | |
| 2005 | ABC | 25.4 | 38.0 | 27.876 | 42.139 | Million Dollar Baby | $1,503,000 | |
| 2004 | ABC | 26.0 | 40.0 | 28.212 | 43.531 | Lord of the Rings: Return of the King | $1,503,100 | |
| 2003 | ABC | 20.4 | 32.0 | 21.769 | 33.043 | Chicago | $1,345,800 | |
| 2002 | ABC | 25.4 | 42.0 | 26.832 | 41.782 | A Beautiful Mind | $1,290,000 | |
| 2001 | ABC | 26.2 | 40.0 | 26.800 | 42.944 | Gladiator | $1,450,000 | |
| 2000 | ABC | 29.2 | 48.0 | 29.437 | 46.333 | American Beauty | $1,305,000 | |
| 1999 | ABC | 28.6 | 46.0 | 28.466 | 45.615 | Shakespeare in Love | $1,000,000 | |
| 1998 | ABC | 34.9 | 55.0 | 34.160 | 55.249 | Titanic | $950,000 | |
| 1997 | ABC | 27.4 | 46.0 | 26.531 | 40.075 | The English Patient | $850,000 | |
| 1996 | ABC | 30.3 | 50.0 | 29.016 | 44.867 | Braveheart | $795,000 | |
| 1995 | ABC | 32.5 | 53.0 | 31.005 | 48.279 | Forrest Gump | $700,000 | |
| 1994 | ABC | 31.1 | 49.0 | 29.296 | 45.083 | Schindler’s List | $643,500 | |
| 1993 | ABC | 31.2 | 51.0 | 29.047 | 45.735 | Unforgiven | $607,800 | |
| 1992 | ABC | 29.8 | 50.0 | 27.446 | 44.406 | The Silence ofthe Lambs | ||
| 1991 | ABC | 28.4 | 48.0 | 26.440 | 42.727 | Dances With Wolves | ||
| 1990 | ABC | 27.9 | 48.0 | 25.700 | 40.375 | Driving Ms. Daisy | $450,000 | |
| 1989 | ABC | 29.8 | 50.0 | 26.940 | 42.619 | Rain Main | $375,000 | |
| 1988 | ABC | 29.4 | 49.0 | 26.050 | 42.227 | Last Emperor | $360,000 | |
| 1987 | ABC | 27.5 | 43.0 | 24.040 | 37.190 | Platoon | $335,000 | |
| 1986 | ABC | 27.3 | 43.0 | 23.450 | 37.757 | Out of Africa | $320,000 | |
| 1985 | ABC | 27.7 | 45.0 | 23.520 | 38.855 | Amadeus | $315,000 | |
| 1984 | ABC | 30.3 | 50.0 | 25.390 | 42.051 | Terms of Endearment | $275,000 | |
| 1983 | ABC | 38.0 | 59.0 | 31.654 | 53.235 | Gandhi | $245,000 | |
| 1982 | ABC | 33.6 | 53.0 | 27.384 | 46.245 | Chariots of Fire | ||
| 1981 | ABC | 31.0 | 58.0 | 24.120 | 39.919 | Ordinary People | ||
| 1980 | ABC | 33.7 | 55.0 | 25.713 | 48.978 | Kramer vs. Kramer | ||
| 1979 | ABC | 34.6 | 63.0 | 25.770 | 46.301 | Deer Hunter | ||
| 1978 | ABC | 36.3 | 68.0 | 26.460 | 48.501 | Annie Hall | ||
| 1977 | ABC | 31.1 | 63.0 | 22.140 | 39.719 | Rocky | ||
| 1976 | ABC | 35.5 | 64.0 | 24.710 | 46.751 | One… Coockoo’s Nest | ||
| 1975 | NBC | 35.0 | 62.0 | 23.980 | 48.127 | GodfatherPart II | ||
| 1974 | NBC | 36.7 | 68.0 | 24.300 | 44.712 | The Sting | ||
| 1973 | NBC | 37.8 | 68.0 | 24.490 | The Godfather | |||
| 1972 | NBC | 38.7 | 70.0 | 24.030 | The French Connection | |||
| 1971 | NBC | 38.2 | 70.0 | 22.960 | Patton | |||
| 1970 | ABC | 43.4 | 78.0 | 25.390 | Midnight Cowboy | |||
| 1969 | ABC | 31.8 | 56.0 | 18.130 | Oliver! | |||
| 1968 | ABC | 34.4 | 67.3 | 19.260 | In the Heat of the Night | |||
| 1967 | ABC | 41.2 | 74.9 | 22.620 | A Man for All Seasons | |||
| 1966 | ABC | The Sound of Music | ||||||
| 1965 | ABC | 37.4 | 69.3 | 19.670 | My Fair Lady | |||
| 1964 | ABC | 37.0 | 71.3 | 18.980 | Tom Jones | |||
| 1963 | ABC | 37.2 | 71.0 | 18.526 | Lawrence of Arabia | |||
| 1962 | ABC | 37.1 | 75.4 | 18.179 | West Side Story | |||
| 1961 | ABC | The Apartment | ||||||
| 1960 | NBC | 45.8 | 82.4 | 20.430 | Ben-Hur | |||
| 1959 | NBC | 46.7 | 82.0 | 20.284 | Gigi | |||
| 1958 | NBC | 46.3 | 78.2 | 19.210 | The Bridge on the River Kwai | |||
| 1957 | NBC | 37.3 | 69.2 | 14.187 | Around The World In 80 Days | |||
| 1956 | NBC | 48.0 | 70.0 | 16.251 | Marty | |||
| 1955 | NBC | 45.0 | 57.0 | 18.785 | On the Waterfront | |||
| 1954 | NBC | 55.0 | 82.0 | 14.953 | From Here To Eternity | |||
| 1953 | NBC | 49.7 | 82.0 | 10.912 | The Greatest Show On Earth |
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*2006-2008 results are Live+SD, all previous years are Live viewing.
Nielsen Ratings Data: ©2009 Nielsen Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
I’m going to predict 27 million. None of the best picture nominees hold a candle to the ones from last year. (Slumdog Millionaire? Are you freaking kidding me?) I’m still sad that Clint Eastwood got robbed.
I feel like the inevitability of a Heath Ledger win will bring tons of viewers. That movie made like a gazillion dollars based mostly on the strength of his performance, people are going to tune in to this. The buzz has been going for it since July.
I’ll take the over on 30 million.
The nominees have had a large effect on the ratings fall. This decade has seen very little in the way of crowd pleasing blockbusters being nominated (outside of the LoTR movies). Its no coincidence the Oscar’s biggest ratings year was the one with the highest grossing movie of all time involved.
I’d give you that if it were up for best picture, Jesse. It’s sad when the Best Supporting Actor category is what people are most looking forward to. I think a lot of people A) Consider the Oscars to be a joke compared to what they once were (you can put me in this category) or B) Simply don’t care that much anymore. Not many people have seen any of the nominees.
I don’t think it could be lost on anyone that the poor ratings are directly linked to the type of movies the general public may or may not see. 1998 was year of Titantic which most people saw and it definitely spiked in the ratings. Last year was very artsy obscure movies. This year Slumdog is a feelgood (well, kind of) movie that people can relate to, and it’s doing pretty well at the box office, so if I’m allowed to vote (not being a regular around here) I’ll vote higher than last year, over 40 million.
Viewers Best Picture Best Supporting Actor
(million)
42.000 Slumdog Millionaire HEATH LEDGER
BETCHA!
this will be by far the LOWEST audience yet for the Academy Awards. I predict that for the first time ever, the audience will be below 30 million viewers. None of these films have generated any excitement. all the races are just about decided(except for Best Actor and even that is only between two men Penn and Rourke). It is going to be a SNOOZEFEST!
ABC must be pissed that The Dark Night is not nominated in Best Picture.
I think this year’s Oscars will probably beat last year’s numbers, but not by much…
Wow, the year in which “Titanic” won received the most viewers by a mile, not really all that surprising when you consider how huge that movie was in 1998.
The Academy should definitely reconsider putting more mainstream movies if they ever want to see “Titanic” numbers again.
I’ll take the under on that 30 million. It’ll be close.
I’ve never gotten the appeal of the Oscars. The show goes on for hours and is one of the most boring things you could possibly find on television.
Had The Dark Knight been nominated, they’d have neared 50 million if not topped that. But The Dark Knight didn’t even make my Top Ten last year, so….
Really, the only draw here is Slumdog Millionaire which hasn’t passed $100 million yet. Milk/The Reader/FrostNixon averaged about $25 million a piece while Benjamin Button was pretty much met with zero response from anyone under the age of 60 as it really is a terrible, shallow movie aside from some brilliant technical aspects.
What would totally help the ratings is if they pushed back the deadline of when films had to be in release. For example, make it a rule that a film must have played in at least 500 theaters by the start of December…..then the general public would have more of a chance to see some of these. Heck, I saw a Frost/Nixon DVD screener like a week after it was released and it was pretty much playing in like 30 theaters throughout the end of 2008. You can’t really expect people to tune in for an awards show for movies they haven’t had the chance to seen, and frankly, can’t see within 100 miles of where they live unless they’re in a major urban area.
DaisiesDeathKnell, seems more like they should change the date of the show and nominations and such, rather than change the date of the submissions. If you can’t include movies that were released in all of 2008 it’s less neat and tidy.
I think the numbers will continue to decline. I think the entertainment options are so varied these days and what Oscar even means has always been in doubt — popularity contest or what? Their appeal will continue to decline and they will air on a cable channel in the next 10 years or so. If you follow the lead up to the awards, there is only one category undecided — will (in my opinion) best actor go to the best performance (Sean Penn) or the Aw We Love a Redemption Story (Micky Rourke). If you look back over the past years, many movies now considered the best were not even considered by the Academy Awards as nominees.
I’ll say just about 30 million
Fans wanted Dark Knight for Best Picture nomination – That’s not happening —
so less viewers than last year at least…
The problem is clear: the public hasn’t seen half the films nominated! They shoulkd try and put at least 2 commercial films in the Best Picture race. I still don’t think nominating TDK would’ve go Titanic numbers though.
The ratings, will be slightly better then last year but only because of Ledger. The problem is do, the award show this year, is TO PREDICTABLE!! Everybody knows Slumdog is gonna win it, everybody knows Ledger is gonna win it, we all know its gonna either be Penn or Rourke. Hell most likely Winslet is gonna win it already so she can finally be happy. its to predictable, not to menchant the lack of the Dark Knight as a nominee, which is seriously a major snub. Some people may disagree with me but my opinion stands. Dark Knight and Nolan deserved a nomination, not the win itself but atlease a nomination. Well lets see what happeneds on Sunday
The reason that the academy awards show (that is, the Oscar telecast) has totally lost connection with the majority of the country. They cater to the liberal left in Hollywood, San Francisco, New York, and old New England. They talk to each other about the esoteric brillances that they and their films portray and they try to influence the public with their political views. It really doesn’t work and it is starting to show in the numbers.
i’m gonna say over 30 million, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s less than last year…or a little better, but I don’t think it will tie/beat 2006 numbers.
Oh, and John Norman
Please explain to me how any of the best picture winners since 2000 have a leftist agenda. Seriously, think before you speak.
Oscar ratings are directly related to the popularity of the movies in contention; the tv audience loves to see their favorites get their awards (see Lord of the Rings, Titanic, & Forest Gump) and generally don’t bother when art films are in the lead (see No Country & Chicago).
ABC would be lucky to have a contest between No Country & Blood again this year; compared to that, a contest between a British film set in India and a gay rights pic should have their execs writing “#1 in Women!” press releases already.
The only wild card is the defacto Heath Ledger memorial Best Supporting Actor. Will people (youth, mostly) sit through the whole thing just for that, rather than just Youtubing it on Monday? I doubt it.
So I’ll go with 30.3 million (and would love to see half-hourly data).
The willingness of more television outlets to run original programming against the awards is also hurting here. As recently as five years ago, Fox running a NASCAR race or CBS an Amazing Race against the Academy would have been unthinkable.
with the movies pretty much familiar to most us, the show should do well. i’m looking at 35 to 39 million viewers.
Take a look at what films have been nominated during the last few years and then take a look at what kind of films won the awards 40 years ago. Up to the late 1970s the Blockbusters had a decent chance of winning an award. Nowadays the Acadamy Award nominations go to a bunch of obscure films that only saw a limited release in the New York or Los Angeles areas during the waning days of the year, and are thrust upon the General Public only after they are nominated. And they wonder why they cannot keep their audience! As for me, I have better things to do, this will be the ELEVENTH year in a row I did not watch the awards, and it will be for the same reason as the other ten, I didn’t have anything to root for!
if the dark knight had 10-12 nominations i would say at least 45 million, bu slumdof millionaire, what a joke, now more than 25 million will suprise me
people are disappointed this year and they will punish the awards
The history of the Oscars could be and probably is more than one book in itself. Future historians may look at the chart above and get a Phd thesis on late American Empire culture. ( They’d have to watch all the movies, too though. The Godfather along with, what, whatever wins this year?) What a cool chart.
25 Million. The Academy snubbed the two movies that would have given it a huge ratings boost: The Dark Knight & Gran Torino
I’m just going to post what I hope: less than 20 Million. This relice of a show needs to go the way of the Miss America contest.
Just watched the show…actually fast forwarded thru it with my DVR.
Numbers might be high due to Heath Ledger. Other than that:
1. Too predictable; it is a small circle of people patting themselves on the back and pushing what they want to be everyone else’s value systems instead of just nominating good movies.
2. They don’t nominate what the people go out and spend their money to watch. Will Smith is one of the biggest movie stars but unless he makes one of their approved movies it will never be nominated.
3. The show is TOO LONG.
4. They seem to rarely allow a good looking actor to win an Oscar. They seem to punish good looks.
Slumdog Millionaire 8 Academy Awards, What A Joke… It’s Good, But Not That Good… The Godfather 3 Oscars, Shindler’s List 7 Oscars, Star Wars 6 Oscars, The Silence of the Lambs 5 Oscars, The Martix 4 Oscars, American Beauty 5 Oscars, Forrest Gump 6 Oscars, The Departed 4 Oscars, Gladiator 5 Oscars, Slumdog 8 Oscars
… Depp, Di Caprio, Will Smith Have Never Won… Clint Eastwood Was Robbed… Grand Torino Wasn’t Even Nominated… I’ll Never Again Watch The Oscars, Atleast Winslet & Ledger Won… Ant Finaly The Dark Knight, 2 Awards, Slumdog Won For Sound, What A Pornography…?!?!?!?!?
I happened to click on to the Oscars as a “Buzby Berkeley” style dance number was beginning. I was instantly transported back over the years to a time when entertainers did just that. They entertained. They didn’t do political commentary or urge the world to stop polluting, etc. They just entertained and acted and did slapk-stick and “settled the west.”
I was mesmerized by the dance number. I don’t know who the man singing was (he wasn’t all that good), but I was most pleased to see Beyonce Knowles appear on stage in her red costume. I was subsequently appalled when, as the backdrop on the stage turned red, Beyonce seemed to disappear.
Perhaps it’s a sign of the times. Hollywood just doesn’t impress me any more unless its with amazing special effects. Flesh and blood performers are simply allowed to melt away into the scenery.
To the Academy : Want the ratings to go up ? Go to where the audience is. Action, comedy, animation……………….
Die Hollywood DIE!
A bunch of looney liberals gushing over each other isn’t something I want to watch