The other day I got an e-mail asking why I hadn’t written about the “news” that American Idol would be flip-flopping with Lie to Me and that spelled bad news for LOST because LOST would be going head-to-head with American Idol. Apparently the story created a frenzy on the Internet, but that was lost on me to a degree because there was a mini-frenzy in our own comments section weeks ago about it, though honestly, until Hibberd’s post, I wasn’t aware exactly when it would happen other than knowing it was still weeks in the future.
I’m probably more interested than the next guy to see what happens when the switch occurs. Hello, this is a site about ratings! But, I still view all of it as a tempest in a teapot. Through it all, the ongoing discussion seems to be LOST’s struggling ratings will soon struggle more. Are LOST’s ratings struggling? The question there is relative to what? There are lot of ways to slice and dice the data, and unfortunately there’s no easy way to do anything comprehensive. If I look at last year’s season-to-date average among 18-49 year olds, it’s misleading because it includes any in-slot reruns, and so far this year, there have been no reruns.
But LOST’s ratings are definitely struggling if it’s being measured against its own past performance. Last year, when LOST aired on a Thursday Valentine’s Day night and “only” got a 5.8 rating among 18-49 year olds, people chalked it up to Valentine’s Day. Perhaps a reasonable conclusion since the week before it had pulled a 6.5 rating with adults 18-49. But then February 21, 2008 came along and it pulled a 5.7 and…it wasn’t Valentine’s Day anymore. By the time the season finale rolled around in late May, it had a 4.9 rating with adults 18-49.
The downward trend last year wasn’t particularly surprising. By last year, it was already a serial show in its fourth season that had been off the air for quite some time by the time it came back. And due to the writer’s strike, mostly the first half of last season it ran against repeats of CSI and reality fare like Celebrity Apprentice.
This season, in the four episodes airing prior to last night (February 18, 2009) LOST had pulled the following 18-49 ratings: 5.0, 4.9, 4.7, and 4.4. Update: but American Idol ran for two hours last Wednesday, and was up against LOST. Did the numbers go down? Yes. Among 18-49 they went down 6%. Thanks for Jon in the comments for reminding me that I forgot to include that.
It’s not a particularly pleasing trend, but until last week, compared to last year’s season finale it was performing very well, although compared to last season in the same time frame the numbers were down a bit over 20%.
It’s nothing to get ecstatic over, but is it anything to get bummed out about? Last week, even with the 4.4 rating while going up against American Idol it was still the #11 show among 18-49 year olds, and the shows ahead of it were two airings of Idol, Grey’s Anatomy, Private Practice, Desperate Housewives, CSI, Two and a Half Men, The Office, The Big Bang Theory, Two and a Half Men and Survivor.
Regardless of the absolute numbers, in terms of relative ranking other than Private Practice (which benefited from the Grey’s Anatomy crossover), and The Big Bang Theory (which swelled nicely airing at 9:30pm following Two and a Half Men rather than its usual 8pm spot) there was nothing that would make you think, “Oh man, I didn’t see that coming!” OK, maybe being beaten by Survivor was a surprise, but it was the premiere of Tocantins.
I’m very interested to see last night’s ratings. If I had more sense, I’d probably wait to see them before writing this, but I predict the time switch for American Idol isn’t going to matter much. This isn’t to say it won’t matter at all, and that it won’t take a hit, and that ABC won’t make less money on ad sales, but so far it looks like that was going to be the case anyway, given the downward trend. But it seems highly improbable that it will take so much of a hit that it won’t get to finish its run. And the ratings won’t matter much, because through 5 weeks of release, the season four DVD set for LOST had reportedly sold almost a million units and had generated over $36 million in revenue.
A couple of comparisons, in its first (and only week it was high enough to be included) week of release Moonlight on DVD sold almost 57,000 copies and had almost $1.5 million in sales. In four weeks of release Battlestar Galactica season 4.0 had sold almost 282,000 units and generate over $9 million in revenue. Note, the reason LOST looks so much lower on the chart in the BSG link is because that chart is just for 2009 sales, most of the sales of LOST Season 4 DVD happened in 2008.
From its release on 12/9/08 through the end of the year the LOST season four DVD had sold 820,000 units and generated over $30 million in revenue, the second highest revenue for TV DVDs in 2008, trailing only The Office season 4 over a million units and over $32 million in revenue, (LOST would rank 3rd if you include Planet Earth, The Complete BBC series). Heroes season two sold over 881,000 units in the last four months of 2008, but generated only just over $22 million (fewer episodes due to the writer’s strike, resulting in a lower unit cost).
That was probably more than anyone wanted to know about DVD sales, but the point is this, facing off against the American Idol behemoth might matter in the ratings, but won’t matter in terms of LOST finishing its run until its series finale in fifteen months or so from now in 2010. Whatever last night’s ratings, I really enjoyed the episode, though not everyone enjoyed it as much as I did.
Very good read. I think when people rave about how Lost once got 18-20 millin viewers they forget that for a long time the show ignores causal viewers, besides every tv show lost viewers over he years… PLUS lost is almost the only truly high concept show on network TV right now.
and last night was epic.
LOSTs end is preplanned and will occur next year, so ratings dont matter much unless they completely implode getting TSCC like ratings.
Shows as complex as LOST almost never pick up viewers and shed viewers as it goes along. People these days have very short attention spans and dont think much beyond the current hour. They like everything wrapped up nice and neat. Its also the reason most serial dramas as a whole are in a similar situation.
Heroes, which is in even worse shape, needs to follow this example and plan for its end now. Either at the end of next season or shortly thereafter. Best thing would be to end it next year at the same time LOST ends its run. Not sure why I still watch Heroes, its more out of habit than anything else. Though on Mondays I alternate between Heroes and 24. 24 is also getting tired and Day 7 is nothing but a collection of loosely connected sub plots. But the stable ratings and strong demo will insure a Day 8.
I disagree (to an extent) that the problem with serials is that people like everything wrapped up during the hour. I don’t doubt that, that’s true for some of the audience but I think the much bigger problem is that very few serials work well over multiple seasons. It just becomes very difficult to string out multiple season long arcs that keep the audience interested and engaged. Either you end up repeating the same structure every year (Desperate Housewives) or things become increasingly ludicrous and difficult to follow (Lost) and the audience just gets bored.
Lost has seen its ratings fall because the audience just gets bored/fed up with having no idea what’s going on and never having any of the questions raised any properly.
Lost is not hard to follow if you actually watch each episode and I mean watch it, not do something else while the TV is on.
as a fan i agree that ratings dont matter at this point
but the NON-Fans will always point to that stats to show the Quality Decline of the show and that really bugs me
it’s not hard to follow , i tell why ratings falls becuase when one person miss just one episode he cant follow the hole season , so he will wait till the season come in DVD or he just download on any torrent site !!
- sorry for my english -
Didn’t Lost already go against American Idol last week when Idol ran 2 hours? (http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/02/12/wednesday-ratings-two-hours-of-american-idol-dominance/12707) And it didn’t even drop that much (4.4 in demo, 9.7m viewers). So it’s already shown that it can hold its own against Idol.
Jon, I meant to include pretty much exactly what you just wrote! Somehow I forgot which is somewhat ironic since it was the major impetus for me rolling my eyes at all the “oh no, LOST fans! Look out for the American Idol steamroller!” to begin with. I’ll edit the post.
I honestly don’t understand how anyone can argue that Lost isn’t difficult to follow, especially given that 95% (at least) of the people who make that argument then go onto admit that if you miss an episode (or even part of an episode) or don’t give the show your full and undivided attention you’ll have absolutely no idea what’s going on. That my friends would be a show that’s difficult to follow.
I’m not however strictly speaking saying that’s a bad thing because whilst I’m not a Lost fan my problem with the show is all about its quality (or lack thereof) rather than how easy or difficult it is to follow. There’s a place for complex serialised television, it just won’t ever be as a sustained monster hit similar to the likes of CSI because by their very nature serialised shows shun casual viewing. For Lost that’s not a problem because the audience it does attract is the right demo, one advertisers like and one who are clearly willing to shell out for DVD’s and other pieces of merchandise so its a profitable show and doesn’t need the sustained numbers of a CSI to survive, it just needs to maintain its impressive demo score.
According to The Futon Critic, lost is already renewed for next season. If the ratings ever came to a low point (which they’re not at, and probably won’t be), ABC *can’t* cancel it. They worst they can do is cut the budget.
On the American Idol vs. Lost point, is part of the issue being raised not that when they go up against each other week on week and Idol starts picking up momentum heading toward its finale it’s going to hit Lost and that Lost isn’t the kind of show that’s going to get that audience back? I suspect it might be very easy for people to opt for Lost over Idol auditions but when you get into the live elimination shows and it gets closesr to the final it may very well be a different story.
Of course I don’t think that’s the issue a lot of people might be making it out to be, whilsst I think the hit Lost takes will get bigger as the season rolls on I don’t think its going to be substantial nor do I think its going to put the show in any real danger of not finishing its run as planned.
YAYA I hope everyshow on ABC gets canceled and I hope ABCs Network goes bankrupt!!! YAYA YA that would be amazing. Those idiots should have never canceled October Road, I miss it soooo much!!!
Hmmm, I haven’t really been following Lost, but I don’t think it can go much lower. The hardcore fans will stick around, as they did with Heroes. I think having a planned ending for Lost was a good idea, and I hope they do the same with Heroes. I’m among the few who still like Heroes, that aren’t going anywhere, but I hope they don’t stretch it out forever.
I think the thing is that people are getting tired of Serials. Heroes huge decline from a 5 to a 3.6, Lost from a 5 to a 4.4 and 24 from a 4 something to as low as a 3.4. Obviously the most noticeable is Heroes, but they’ve all lost a significant chunk of their audience.
You can’t really judge Lost’s popularity by its ratings anymore. So many people download the show from Bittorrent sites its amazing. You get the whole show and no commercials. It makes it so much easier to watch that way. I’m sure a ton of people are doing this now.
Just go to Mininova or Demonoid and look at the numbers next to Lost’s episode every week. Its a feeding frenzy!! And these people are not included in any ratings survey. Lost consistently lands in the Top 3 every week for most downloaded shows. I live in Thailand and would be “lost” without my Bittorrent download of Lost every week.
unfortunately bittorent doesnt make money
johnthemon: well, lost got 5 demo in s3-s4, but before that…7-8 i believe
Yeah we should all take into account illegal downloads when working out the popularity of a show…
Since Lost WILL finish its run next year, and will not be cancelled before that, I don’t give a flying fig how many viewers it loses. If the Lost fanbase becomes a smaller, more exclusive club, so be it. Those who stray away will miss out.
But really, how many fans can American Idol take away from Lost? Lost is a more cerebral show, and attracts cerebral types. American Idol has never been accused of being too intellectual. If any fans stop watching Lost because they’ve just gotta catch every week of American Idol, I’ll be baffled as to why they were hanging in with Lost for 4+ years in the first place.
And I don’t say that to insult American Idol fans — I used to watch it myself, for the first two or three years. But by this point in Lost’s history I think it’s got a solid, core fanbase and that solid, core fanbase is not the sort of viewer that watches American Idol.
I expect a modest ratings drop at worst.
I think serials are GREAT TV. The only thing is…you’re not going to get NEW viewers at this point and you’re naturally going to lose some over the years. My roommate wants me desparately to start watching Lost with her, but I’ve told her I feel like I’ve missed too much to jump in now. I have added the previous seasons to my Blockbuster Total Access queue and I will watch it that way from start to finish. It’s a show I’ve always wanted to watch. I just need to start from season 1, episode 1.
I’m actually very interested in TV DVD sales. Can you recommend a good website to tract these sales?
Seriously, this article is dead on. Anything above a 4.0 demo today is a hit, and LOST is still hovering around a 5.0. About anything with a 3.0 demo will get renewed, so any talk of it being cancelled is nothing short of ludicrous. LOST fans will take a new episode over any episode of American Idol any day of the week? Why? Because their audiences are nowhere near the same. I’m not saying nobody who watches LOST watches American Idol (I’m guilty here), but I’d be willing to bet under 25% of those tuning in watch American Idol. All this panic and cancellation discussion shouldn’t take place until LOST hits under a 3.0 this season, which quite frankly, it doesn’t stand a snowballs chance of happening. I don’t get why I’m one of the few people apparently who can see this.
Kathy, all of the DVD links above were to http://the-numbers.com (no relation)
And the DVD sales help it a lot even if ABC is ripping people off so much with its ridiculous price it should be a crime, I thought I’d add.
This is such a non-story. ABC makes loads of money of LOST and that is not going to stop. We are guaranteed 28 more incredible hours of television, and all the ratings measure now is how many people watch it the very day it first airs. The LOST audience is the most techno-savvy in all of television and we will watch whenever and however we like……..it may not be live or the same night ABC airs it, but so what? We love it and watch it over and over.
I don’t understand people that think Lost is difficult to watch. I’ve watched it from the beginning and have no problem following what’s going on in the show. Lost is as good as ever.
I love both American Idol and Lost. It is possible to be cerebral and richly rewarded by the creative genius behind LOST and also revel in the raw emotions of witnessing talented youngsters achieve their dreams on American Idol. It’s like loving both a 5 star dessert from a pastry chef and a simple Hersheys chocolate bar. Both can be wonderful.
Maybe better than ever. As more things get revealed, the story just seems to get deeper and deeper. Someone said earlier about today’s 3 minute attention span….just about right for American Idol. I don’t want to sound like a snob,
but I’d like to see the income and education demographics for Lost and American
Idol. Would we really be shocked by the answers?!
Les, yes, I think you would be surprised about how many smart, educated, informed, wealthy people watch American Idol. AI will beat just about any show, in just about every demographic because of its size. On a percentage basis, it’s likely that a higher percentage of LOST’s viewers our in your snobby demographics, but on an absolute basis, I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to find out AI had more of them.
Maybe so, but you won’t catch me watching it. As a musician, I get bored watching what amounts to a karaoke contest every week. I get enough of that crap here in Asia.
And Alex, yes, you should take downloads into account when sizing up a show’s
popularity. They may not be paying now, but the word of mouth generated by all the downloaders is worth its weight in gold when it comes to DVD sales down the road and future viewers being turned on by all the chatter amongst the faithful.
Nobody makes me watch soccer. So I don’t. Even though it’s the most popular sport in the world! But I don’t feel any need to trash it either.
Les,
Some professionals feel the need to decompress when they come home from a stressful job and so watch reality shows specifically because they are “dumbed down” and are instantly gratifying.
For a fictional example, Dr. Gregory House is a brilliant physician who, when he gets a chance, watches soaps in the daytime (usually in a coma patient’s room) and wrestling at night.
and he loves Monster Truck rallies…
^ That’s right. I haven’t kept up with this season. Will have to watch it over the summer. I don’t like No. 13.
Thanks for the link, Robert.
Doesn’t matter whether you wanted to or not, Les, you sound like a snob.
ABC is committed to LOST thru season 6 – so it doesn’t matter what – it ends at the end of season 6 – unless maybe ratings go high enough where ABC will reconsider – after Chapter 6 – it’s OVER…and LOST will be……..well—LOST.
When LOST & HEROES end – I mean end for good — I will then START watching the DVD’s – so I don’t have to wait week to week – season to season – whatever to whatever…I can just watch them at my leisure…and…on MY time….although I admit I can’t wait…
For now I have my week to week of “24″ – and that’s enough for me…
Vader, for the Lost DVDs you just need to know where to look. I recently bought the first season for $15, yes it was used but all the DVDs works so a really fantastic deal.
Also, Best Buy and Target usually have pretty good sales for TV DVDs. And there are other stores that just are super overpriced, like up to $50 for a season.
My goal is usually $35 for dramas and $25 for sitcoms.
Stacy, I was actually just referring to the fourth season, which despite having only 14 episodes, still manages to be the same price that the last three seasons that had at least 22 episodes have been when they’re released. That’s just flat out wrong in my book, but people will buy it because they love the show so much. Granted, I haven’t done any investigating into the price or good deals lately, so I could be wrong…used definitely looks to be the way to go.
Yeah, you are right about the fourth season it should of been less, I didn’t even think of that, I was just too excited for DVD.
When I will fell ripped off by buying all of the Lost is when it’s all over and they come out with a full series pack, and includes extras not included in the original DVDs. They did is with Seinfeld and I’m still pissed I didn’t get a coffee table book, despite that fact that I own all nine season. And even though I got some of them as gifts and good deals on most of the seasons, I’m probably still paid more then the $200 for the full series pack.
Rob: Hershey makes terrible chocolate.
it seems like the nielsen ratings are a bit outdated now. i rarely watch my shows on tv now and just go straight to the websites and stream the shows. especially since the quality is better than my standard size tv. and now it seems like they changed the display size. i never minded the black bar on the top and the bottom, but now they’ve changed that so it’s stretched that even words don’t show on the screen. so all that to say, i watch them on my computer however many times i want, and that doesn’t seem to count toward ratings.
Here’s a reality check for those stuck in Ratings world from the bygone era…very few people under the age of 35 watch scripted TV shows live in 2009…they watch them on itunes, online at various sites, and on DVR…if LOST is averaging 11.3 million live +7 viewers and CSI gets 17-18 live +7 million, then LOST is a WAY more profitable show when you add up all the other millions who watch it weeks later on DVR or online. If each LOST season DVD set has sold millions and is always in the top 3 TV shows sold every year, then who cares about Nielson ratings??
Serial shows like the high quality LOST will probably never again appear on TV once this current batch (24, BSG, Heroes) ends because TV and Nielson are too archaic to adapt to the new millennium. They will be a DVD experience. LOST and 24 were some of the first to harness viral marketing, and speaking as a viewer, the experience watching the show on DVD is so much more amazing and repeat viewing and immediate access to the next episode is part of the pleasure. It’s like the show was made to be viewed that way. A LOT of people simply wait till the seasons are released on DVD because the story is so dense that it really demands being savored and quite frankly the TV format is better suited to news and mind-numbing reality shows.
People that AREN’T LOST fans shouldn’t worry about the nielson “woes” either… The show is getting a 4.5-5.0 in the key demos every week… a show with over 3.0 is considered really good.
LOST is in its FIFTH season and is getting the same numbers(basically) as the freshman show, FRINGE… so take that as you will. LOST is great quality wise… and to some extent quantity wise with all the profit it makes for ABC.
When LOST is done, ABC will probably be quite sad because they’ll never have the same type of show like LOST….EVER. The same can be said for other networks.
When the show is done, after is 6th season, EVERYONE that’s yet to watch the show needs to watch this fantastic book we call…. LOST
Re: User:”Nielson=outdated and irelevant!”, see http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/02/17/why-being-a-hit-on-itunes-doesnt-matter-yet/12989 and the “DVR Viewing” section of this site–a taste of your own medicine (“a reality check”).
Let’s be honest, the Lost demographic and the American Idol demographic are just not the same. Yes, they are competing for the same age group but that is where the similarities end. The people who watch American Idol are looking for mindless TV. Lost is for people who like intellectually stimulating entertainment. I’m not saying that those who watch American Idol are stupid just that American Idol does not require your rapt attention.
I also want to point out that Nieslen ratings are an unfair indicator for the popularity of Lost, not only because it does not take into account DVD sales or bittorrent downloads, but also because it does not include hits on ABCs website, which has full episodes streaming for free.
WOW HEROES TO BE REBOOTED
“And Tim Kring is clearly welcoming the reprieve. He’s now promised, talking to TV Guide, that the show will be rebooted for its fourth season, and would be starting again from square one. He’s added that you won’t need to have seen the three previous seasons to jump in with season four”
Apparently:
http://www.denofgeek.com/television/188227/heroes_season_four_rescue_plan.html
Nevermind: its wrong
Anyway yeah LOST.
I guess I don’t understand Lost fan’s constant freaking out about the ratings when there is really no reason to. It’s like we’re collectively waiting for the bottom to fall out of the Nielsen and the show to get canceled. Lost fans: stop worrying! Why?
1. Besides the middle of the third season, “Lost” hasn’t lost that many more viewers. For the last season and a half (for typical episodes, not season premieres/finales) it’s been averaging 11.5-12.5 million viewers and a 4.8 to a 5.5 in the demo. With the exception of one episode this season, most of it’s airings have been very close to that range. Considering the erosion seen in network TV over the past 2 years, to remain stable is damned good. Virtually no other hit series has. Look at the ratings for GA, DH, the CSIs, Survivor, AI, House, etc if you don’t believe me.
2. Despite the frequently trumpeted figure that the series used to draw over 20 million viewers, out of it’s 88 episodes, only about 8 drew over that mark. It usually drew 17 to 18 million and in the 7’s in the demo. So it’s not like Lost has lost half of its audience.
3. It’s still top 20 in viewers and top 10 in demo.
4. ABC has already renewed the show for a sixth season.
In conclusions: Stop worrying! It’s pointless, not only because ABC’s already renewed it, but also because numbers are good. You don’t see fans of Grey’s Anatomy freaking out, do you? It’s demo numbers aren’t that much higher than Lost’s at this point.
So you’re saying ratings won’t matter to Lost and matter to The Unit? Alright..
It irks me when people say LOST is the “only” high concept, or “best” written, yada, yada, yada, show on TV. Some people dont think show and watch MORE than LOST. You MAY think that because you DON’T watch the other shows. You know, the ones with BETTER RATINGS than LOST. Maybe they’re better…on the otherhand, maybe the ratings don’t relate to the quality of a show at all.
LOST is an exellent show, and had great potential. But the big build up to the tepid gumbo of pseudo-science thrown together with mysticism is a little off-putting to some who beleived the writers whdn they said it was nut-and-bolts science at the core. After vehemntly denying “time travel” was involved two seaosns ago, here we are. I’m about to dig up the “Limbo” theory again, that most reviled theory ALSO denied by the writers/producers.
It MAY be you’re so blown-away and inspired by what you think is solid science (and not the gross misrepresentation of those theories and the hatchet job the writers are doing on it) that you may have better spent your time studying science. Or better yet, readinbg real nut-and-bolts treatments of thioase subjects in REAL sci-fi. Then you wouldn’t be so awestruck but more pragmatically….disappointed.
Having said that let the fan-storm begin…it’s Monday, we can use a rousing discussion rather than total agreement.