Friday Night Lights will escape cancellation only through the continuing largesse of DirecTV or some other sugar daddy, its ratings are terrible. Life & Knight Rider look certain to be cancelled as well. Kath & Kim didn’t have a bad start, but now it’s sinking and looks like a goner.
While the recent results for Chuck and Heroes on Monday have been down, I believe a combination of the overall devastation at NBC this season, particularly for their new shows, and their seeming inability to come up with anything better, likely keeps those two safe from cancellation. My guess is that the failure (my guess) of the new NBC shows this spring will seal the deal.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Cancelled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 1,167 | 3,340 | 0.35 | finished |
| FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS | NBC | 1,809 | 3,340 | 0.54 | |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 1,969 | 3,340 | 0.59 | cancelled |
| LIFE (WED) | NBC | 2,372 | 3,340 | 0.71 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,403 | 3,340 | 0.72 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2,636 | 3,340 | 0.79 | cancelled |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 2,931 | 3,340 | 0.88 | |
| LAW AND ORDER | NBC | 3,042 | 3,340 | 0.91 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,342 | 3,340 | 1.00 | |
| CHUCK | NBC | 3,371 | 3,340 | 1.01 | |
| MEDIUM | NBC | 3,697 | 3,340 | 1.11 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,076 | 3,340 | 1.22 | final season |
| 30 ROCK | NBC | 4,206 | 3,340 | 1.26 | |
| LAW AND ORDER:SVU | NBC | 4,511 | 3,340 | 1.35 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,263 | 3,340 | 1.58 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,390 | 3,340 | 1.61 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. I have adjusted the NBC adults 18-49 season to date average to remove the increase (of 370,000) it received during the Super Bowl week because that increase had nothing to do with the normal viewership of the network or any of its other shows.
Notes:
Friday night – Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I’m indicating renewal for them.
Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
Friday Night Lights. Even for Friday night, those numbers are turn out the lights awful. But last season, DirecTV pulled out its checkbook and the show continued for another season. If DirecTV (or someone else) is inclined to do it again, the numbers may not matter at all. If they’re not inclined to write the check again, the show’s certain to be cancelled at the end of this season.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Wow…Chuck’s index went up? That’s AWESOME, but I’m confused… After today’s post about yesterday’s ratings I thought we were screwed…but I do see your point about NBC’s situation (not to mention the stiff competition on Monday’s right now). I hope Chuck is safe! We shall see, but the index looks better than I thought it would today. I’ll take it!
Jenna, Chuck’s index is a measure of its *relative* performance vs. other NBC shows. Chuck has been down recently, but NBC has been down even more overall.
the index will break on NBC. No shows that you show cancelled will be saved, but more than one of the shows you show being renewed could well be cancelled or moved off the broadcast net. This makes the following assumptions:
1. 10 hours of programming Mon-Fri
and that assumes they don’t want to launch at least one additional new show (and given performance, of course they will!)
2. they are not likely to stick expensive scripted programming on Friday again any time soon. I admit this is an assumption based on what I think they should do, not necessarily what they would do.
3. add two hours of the Biggest Loser and the new Amy Poehler comedy to the green shows above and you’re already at 9 hours when you only need eight
I’m really interested to see NBC’s schedule for next year. Tuesdays (Biggest Loser) and Thursdays (comedy block) seem locked up, while Sunday is also for the fall (football). With Leno, that leaves Monday, Wednesday, and Friday 8-10 (or 6 hours) to fill. With regard to scripted dramas, Heroes and SVU will definitely be back, while Medium, Chuck, and Law & Order are somewhere in between maybe and probably. Let’s say either Southland or Kings is successful enough to renew for next year, which seems somewhat reasonable to me. That’s potentially 6 hours of shows to fill 6 hours of scheduling time.
Of course they can hold something back for midseason (which they seem to like to do with Medium), especially since Sundays are wide open come January. But when you’re the fourth place network, I’m sure you want to premiere more than one or two scripted hours in a fall not hindered by the writer’s strike. Perhaps the Leno experiment is their big risk for the fall, and midseason will be their focus.
I think that unless people fall in love with the stunt casting coming up (Chevy Chase etc). Because DWTS is coming back I think that the numbers will with either slightly fall or stay at the same level as yesterdays epi. That sucks. I still think it has a modest chance at renewal although I would’ve preferred giving the post superbowl spot to Chuck rather than The Office. It’s one of only 3 shows I watch on NBC after giving up on Heroes. I’m just glad that The Office and 30 Rock are very likely for renewal. Oh, I really have high hopes for Parks and Recreation because Amy Poehler and Aziz Ansari are really funny and it’s made by Reveille who make my favorite show (the office).
CHUCK! I’m so worried lately and will not be content until it is definitely renewed. The season has been getting great, and though Chuck’s numbers are looking low, it is quite apparent that NBC’s overall ratings are nothing to cheer for.
Between 5:48 and 5:49, my post became very redundant.
I figured Earl, Chuck, Rock, SVU, Office, Heroes, Poehler and Loser for the Fall. That’s seven hours leaving one hour open for a new show from Monday-Thursday. Medium and L&O come in at mid-season as they did this season. Does that not work?
it doesn’t really work once mid-season rolls around without schedule changes bumping shows to Sunday (or sticking Medium and L&O on Sunday) or cancelling something by mid season. Medium works as a Monday at 10pm mid season show but it only works particularly well because MOWE was cancelled.
If Biggest Loser like most shows has 22 episodes than, it would be possible for NBC to launch Biggest Loser on Tuesdays as a 2hr show than launch a show for 13 weeks with biggest loser as it lead in. If it the show was good and picked up for a back 9 NBC could have it take a break while it air Biggest loser as 2 hours again after a new show runs its 13 episodes. it sounds like a decent plan in my head but my head is full of wonderful and crazy things.
With Leno at 10, they’ll have to make schedule changes next year anyway. SVU has to move. L&O would too if it returns anyway. I don’t view putting L&O and Medium on Sunday nights as drastic at all, not compared with giving Leno every weekday at 10.
I do not see NBC renewing something with a 2.2 demo with or without Leno, so goodbye ‘Chuck’! A 2.2 is below 0.9 of NBC’s average, right?
What happens if Parks and Rec. bombs horribly? I’ll see the pilot episode because it seems intriguing. But does NBC have another 30 min sitcom to put in just in case? They can always move Early to Tuesdays and make Biggest Loser half hour shorter. I agree with Bill that Medium and L&O will be mid season shows. L&O will come back because it will have its 20th season.
IMO, I can also see them moving Chuck until midseason as well. The reason why I say that is because Chuck’s ratings grow over the course of the season until it hits a break where it loses all its momentum. It has happen last season and this. This could be a risky move, but Chuck may do better airing 18-20 straight episodes.
But of course, NBC has the Olympics, so that may screw with their mid season schedule next year.
demonhog, as a matter of fact, NBC’s average 18-49 rating last week was a 2.1, Chuck was *better* than average!
Law & Order paired with Medium on Sundays come midseason sounds right. I might even put Chuck Sunday at 8 in that situation (Chuck->Medium->Law & Order) to make some room for fall premieres. Anchor Wednesdays with SVU and Mondays with Heroes. That’s one hour each on Monday and Wednesday to premiere a new show or carry over Southland or Kings, and NBC can do whatever they want on Fridays.
But, it seems more likely they’ll cancel either Chuck, Medium, or Law & Order. I also really like Rob’s idea of adjusting Biggest Loser’s length to try and lead into a new 9:00 show. If it doesn’t work, lengthening it to two hours again seems like an easy fix.
oh I don’t view Sunday as a drastic move, but unless I felt strongly shows like L&O and Chuck would see 50%ish 18-49 improvement if moved to another night (Wednesday is often mentioned, but I don’t see Chuck doing much better there, certainly not pushing its demos to upper twos).
it looks like NBC has taken the “Sunday, it’s the new Friday!” tack with the winter (Dateline, movies, the trade press viewed “dumping” Kings there as a sign that NBC didn’t think Kings was as good as Southland).
If you’re NBC it seems there’s little risk in replacing what are fairly marginal performers like Chuck and L&O — if whatever NBC replaced them with don’t seem hit bound or perform even worse, NBC can either expand Jay Leno to two hours some nights, have “The Today Show, Tonight” or throw on Deal or No Deal/Mommas Boys/Superstars of Dance style programming and declare defiantly: “We care about margins! We said we don’t care about ratings and we meant it!”
I think NBC will use this on Sundays next year:
MID-SEASON
7:00 – Dateline
8:00 – NEW SHOW (or Southland or Kings if it does well)
9:00 – Medium
10:00 – Law and Order
I think minimally we will see NBC possibly pull a CW and order 13 episodes of CHUCK to air midseason if it doesn’t pick up CHUCK for a full season.
Bill, but Chuck wasn’t better than NBC’s Mon-Thursday average, and NBC is becoming sort of CW-esque in that way
I think it’ll probably be:
Mon: Tues: Wed: Thurs: Fri
Chuck Deal or No Deal Deal or No Deal Earl Biggest Loser
Heroes Southland L&O SVU P&R Biggest Loser
Office
30 Rock
I think L&O will be cancelled as will Knight Rider and Life. Medium will be a mid season pick up again and any other new shows will premier mid season. Another option could be to pick up Chuck and Heroes for 13 eps and see how they go and have L&O and Medium ready to replace it. The Monday night line up across the networks is too strong for NBC to premiere new shows and I think Biggest Loser could work on Fridays.
wow, that didn’t come out as I wrote it, it’s;
Mon: Chuck, Heroes
Tues: DonD, Southland
Wed: DonD, SVU
Thurs: Earl, P&R, Office, 30 Rock
Fri: Biggest Loser (2 hours)
Sean, I could be reading your chart wrong because of formatting but if not, there’s no way they will screw with Thursday night beyond adding a sitcom to replace Kath & Kim and absolutely no chance Biggest Loser will be aired on a Friday.
Yeah it was the formatting, look at list above your post. The only problem is that both Southland (which is getting good buzz) and SVU aren’t exactly 8pm shows. That’s where the biggest loser problem comes in. unless they have a 2 hr premiere and only occupy the 8pm Tuesday slot. Move the Deal or no Deal to Friday as a lead in for Howie Do it or another reality type show.
Do you know what NBC’s 18-49 season average is in decimal form without the Super Bowl skewing things? Is ‘Chuck’’s 2.2 above 0.9 of that?
Move Southland to Monday and get rid of one Deal or No Deal. That also means they would have to get rid of Chuck and stick Heroes on at 8pm — or they could get rid of both and bring back the extra DoND. I really don’t see them mucking with Biggest Loser. After The Office, it’s NBC’s best performer. Heroes is above it in the index a bit, but that’s because of better numbers earlier. Heroes has trended way down while Biggest Loser has stayed solid.
Sean, there is no way Monday night stays the same. Either one or both shows will be on another night, moved to mid-season or canned. If Heroes dips below a demo of 3.0, it will be canceled; otherwise it will received only a 13 episode order next season. Chuck may come back if it could boost up its demo just a tad.
Biggest Loser stays on Tuesday, most likely for 2 hours. I think DoND will only come back on Fridays or on special airings. It’s already on 5 days a week via syndication – having it air more than that will just milk the franchise bone dry.
I thought we were trying to be Chuck-positive? I can’t see them moving a new-ish show to Monday nights- it’s already too competitive. I think that Heroes probably will get picked up but on a 13 episode order and have a DonD lead in. That does mean that Southland and possibly Kings will end up on Friday nights. Damnit Leno! If that show doesn’t hit 2.5 in the 18-49 demo NBC are going to have a very busy pilot season next spring…
I wouldn’t be surprised if Chuck and Heroes were brought back as Sunday shows after Sunday Night Football ends to get a similar viewership as football which probably isn’t the same viewer as Desperate Housewives
If we are keeping Southland around in the fall, I say pair it with SVU on Mondays. You don’t have to premiere anything brand new against the tough competition. And for all the things Monday night has, cop dramas are not among them.
Sean, I’m trying to think in terms of what has to happen, not in terms of what I want to have happen (I’d have Chuck on twice a week!). So, fine you can move SVU to Mondays and let Southland have Wednesdays or go with what TGA suggests. There’s any number of things you could do, but here’s one thing you probably can’t do — screw with the Biggest Loser just to help out Chuck
…and NBC is becoming sort of CW-esque in that way
What a depressing observation for NBC.
I would cancel Biggest Loser and Heroes and just have a Chuck Bartowski Monday and Tuesday of I could. If this Leno thing doesn’t work I think we can say goodbye to Ben Silverman and Marc Graboff as Chairmen. I agree that Mondays don’t have a cop drama but they do have a cop drama masquerading as a medical procedural – House.
NBC has 6 drama pilots in the works:
1. Day One – produced by the infamous Jesse Alexander
2. Legally Mad – produced by the person behind The Practice & Boston Legal
3. Lost & Found – drama about a quirky, offbeat female LAPD detective
4. Mercy – drama about three nurses bound together in friendship
5. Parenthood – dramedy a based on ron howard’s 1989 feature
6. Trauma – drama set in the high-energy world of medical emergencies out in the field
NBC has already made a blind series commitment to Legally Mad. Depending on how Southland and Kings does this spring, and how many pilots NBC decides to pick up, it may be very cluttered come this Fall.
FYI, five of the pilots are being produced by NBC’s own Universal Media Studios. Legally Mad is being produced WB.
wow, I didn’t realise it was that many. The ones that do get picked up will probably be kept for midseason though and put in the Sunday Night football slot. If Southland gets picked up it’s highly unlikely NBC would want to have two LAPD shows on the air so i’d count Lost and Found out.
And Legally Mad is a David E. Kelley show so I think that unless the story is bad, it’s highly unlikely that it won’t be picked up.
Sean, you are referring to the network that premiered both 30 Rock and Studio 60 the same season.
Yeah but both shows were basically about SNL so that might have been more of a vanity play for NBC than anything.
Touche. And i’m hoping they learned their lesson. Even though Studio 60 was a great show, and the two had similar ratings (actually I think Studio 60 had better ratings) they couldn’t both survive.
I think Chuck will survive. Its not that expensive to make and it generates decent revenue(from what I’ve read). But in the end, I just really hope they keep my favorite show!!!
In fact the last regular season episode (before they cancelled it and just shoved the last few episodes out after a 3 month hiatus) got 6.2 million viewers and a 2.6 18-49 rating. 30 Rock averaged 5.8 million viewers for the whole season and a 2.6 rating also.
Can you tell i’m still a little bit angry over Studio 60’s cancellation?
Sean, 30 Rock was renewed on its demos alone, and not at all on its viewers. But a half hour comedy is always cheaper than a one hour drama. Comparing those two shows for renewal is just silly.
Doesnt NBC have a new comedy with Legal in it as well?
I wasn’t saying that 30 Rock shouldn’t have been renewed (because I love it!), i’m just saying that they both should’ve been! And if that’s true, we totally shouldn’t hold out any hope for Chuck.
Lipstick Jungle must be dead… lead star joins ABC’s drama pilot ‘Witches of Eastwick’
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i03e9df1ef7d2112bb724a65bdb2cd801
Nearly everyone over at Knight Rider Online says that KR will get renewed…and, believe me, they know what they are talking about.
Chuck over a 1.01, yes! I would have liked Chuck to get over 1.0 by actually getting more viewers. but I will take it any way I can. Good news for Chuck, given the lower ratings.
“Lipstick Jungle must be dead… lead star joins ABC’s drama pilot ‘Witches of Eastwick’”
Someone better warn Brooke Shields, she still might not know.
OTH, can I be the first to call ‘Witches of Eastwick’ the first DOA of next season, it it ever gets that far? My bet is that they will either recast Lindsay Price after the pilot, or it has the same fate has Allyssa Milano’s mid-season project over at ABC.
richard less, Fan sites can be good sources for spoilers, discussion, and pictures. However, they are rarely good sources for renewal information. The fans want the show to be renewed, so they aren’t willing to look at the evidence that it won’t be.
“Nearly everyone over at Knight Rider Online says that KR will get renewed…and, believe me, they know what they are talking about.”
There are a couple of things very wrong with that statement.
I think Eastwick will go to series and will go after Desperate Housewives and Brothers & Sisters will go after Dancing.
“I think Eastwick will go to series and will go after Desperate Housewives and Brothers & Sisters will go after Dancing.”
And with Lindsay Price it will bomb. IMO she was the weakest link and Lipstick Jungle, and annoying enough to make me flip channels, a bunch of times in the middle of an episode.That until I remember I don’t the mindless fitness and exercise crap, not even for my thumb, and stopped watching.
Wow, ‘Heroes’, a show that could one achieve a high 6 demo in the late 2000’s might not make traditional syndication. The first season’s 23 episodes, the second season’s 11 and the current season’s 26 only make 60 episodes. NBC is probably not going to give it more than a standard full season next year, so that will be 82 episodes and a fifth season is looking increasingly unlikely.
But then again, while looking through ratings archives, I saw that ‘Prison Break’ used to get high 4 demos. I always knew that it used to get around 10 million, but seeing that 4 was surprising when hit shows like ‘24′, ‘NCIS’, ‘The Bachelor’ and ‘The Mentalist’ only get high 3 demos.
thedemonhog, was the very phrase “Knight Rider Online” one of them?
I wasn’t aware there was enough fans of Knight Rider to make a fan site.
Also, and I base this on nothing, I feel like Chuck is gone. I know the index says otherwise, but I think in the end Jay Leno taking 5 hours of primetime kills it. It’s sad, because I love that show so much, but at least now I can watch new episodes of How I Met Your Mother when they air. I’m trying to look on the bright side instead of, you know, breaking down and crying like a child who’s lost his Barney stuffed animal. Barney’s still on, right?
Make that “at least a couple”, haha.
thedemondog syndication for highly serialized shows for like Heroes are never high anyway, serialized dramas make most of their money from international airings and high DVD buys. Comedys work well in syndication, aswell as dramas like CSI, but comedys don’t work well in another language: say german were you say the punch line first. So say 30 Rock won’t get loads from international airings, but it well get alot for syndication. Infact ‘The Office’ was sold for syndication for $130,000,000.
NBC is a bit sad like CW!
FOX/ABC has good shows while CBS is just the same old procedural shows.
I hope the Leno show flops to make things less complicated
Even if Leno flops, they will give the 10PM hour.
wow, Chuck is up, despite huge drops. NBC is tanking something terrible.
I don’t get why everyone’s bugging out about heroes when it still has an index of 1.58! Sure, it went down, but it held on to a 3.6 for a long time and has only just recently gone below that. If it goes below a 3, which I don’t see happening, then it may be cancelled, but until then I don’t see it happening.
Why do you assume NBC’s midseason shows will tank? I’m not saying they won’t, but you don’t know yet!
johnthemon, the guess on NBC mid-season shows tanking is solely based on recent Silverman-era performance with new shows, but as they say “past performance is not a guarantee…”
Not to be rude, but people still aren’t seeing the logistics of Sunday 2009/2010 for NBC.
Between the NFL and the Olympics, they only have 17 Sundays that need to be programmed, period. And that breaks down into a 5 week mini-period of January & February 7th, and then a 12 week block from March – May.
It is highly unlikely that NBC will make a 22 episode order to fill all 17 Sundays with, and flat out impossible they will put in a 22 episode order to fill that 12 week block with.
It is almost certain they will stick some reality filler/miniseries in January, and then fill March/April/May with a couple 13 episode orders. SVU will not be given a 13 episode order; I think its unlikely Heroes would be (I said would, not should). No, I suspect Sundays will be given the Kings treatment – 3 shows of 13 episode orders to see if anything sticks.
And one extra wrinkle no one is remembering is The Philanthropist, which is already filming (expensive international) episodes. This is guaranteed to air sometime in the the 09-10 season – possibly Sundays at 9/10 pm?
P.S. Medium is up to almost 100 episodes after this season. There is no pressure to drag this along for another season for syndication purposes; with the few time slots that are available, this is done.
I’m not sure about Southland but new cop shows aren’t faring well look at Life On Mars and Life. Even old shows like Law & Order
Although i definity will be watching CASTLE and The Unusuals but are they the normal conforming cop dramas?
Tom, you’re right, no midseason NBC Sunday shows are getting 22 episodes next year, but I don’t think that poses a particular logistics problem. At this point I think Dick Wolf would be happy to get 13-17 episodes on NBC for L&O next year. As for Medium, it’s one of NBC’s best shows. They don’t pull their best shows off the network just because they’ve reached the number of episodes for syndication.
Ahhh all this speculation is giving me a headache LOL.
“They don’t pull their best shows off the network just because they’ve reached the number of episodes for syndication.”
No, but the network that not only endlessly talks about margins but suddenly has less slots to fill would. Medium is expensive (not ER or Heroes expensive, but expensive nonetheless) and probably wouldn’t work as a 8pm show. These are factors outside of the index, but they are real regardless.
I wonder if it’s a possibility that they might order only 13 episodes of heroes next year since it’s so expensive and with the falling ratings
Melbye, Heroes falling ratings still make it one of NBC’s best shows with 18-49s, but the trend is down and expenses are reportedly high. It’s still hard to imagine NBC would bail on it completely.
Heroes’ numbers here are somewhat deceptive in that other shows (Law & Order: SVU and The Office, for example) have in-slot reruns factored into their averages and Heroes hasn’t aired any in slot reruns this season.
Tom: there are certainly factors outside of the index, but I can’t get my arms around any of them leading to Medium’s demise.
“Although i definity will be watching CASTLE and The Unusuals but are they the normal conforming cop dramas?”
Sounds like Castle is suposed to be a standard procedural with an amateur detective character helping the police out. The Unusuals is your not at all unusual cop show with a murder a week, but as the title aims to imply it’s supposedly filled with unique characters and character relationships as well. I’d say they are going for Monk and NCIS rip offs.
Law and Order has got to be back really for a 20th season…I agree all the things you have highlighted as red will be gone, the greens i reckon will be kept as NBC cant afford to drop too many shows. they cant risk all new series or the results could be worst.
Unless Heroes severely downsizes the cast (and thus the costs) of the show, I think the Leno experiement means NBC is less likely to bring back Heroes, not more likely.
Check my reasoning for me:
1. Heroes cannot be making them much money given the cost of the series. DVD sales only figure to continue to drop also, so that’s not a big help from my seat. Plus, the show is now actually bringing them ridicule, with national magazines doing cover stories on how ridiculous the thing is, and with the creator out there making more speaking gaffes than (insert politician you don’t like here).
2. It’s unlikely that NBC wants to go into next season with ZERO new shows, which is what will happen under the majority of scenarios people are talking about, because most of the shows getting canceled (Life, KR, K&K) will have their air time being taken by Leno, not by another scritpted program. So if Chuck AND Heroes return, and if even one of the spring shows does well enough to return, then you are likely talking about NBC’s entire schedule next season consisting of Leno and returning shows.
3. So how can the worst performing network in the world even begin to contemplate making no changes at all? Not only should that idea get everyone fired, it might get some of them executed.
4. To my mind, that puts Chuck and Heroes squarely on the chopping block. Yes, Heroes is STILL one of NBC’s best demo series, but that number continues to drop like a stone. Whether the demo is still acceptable by the end of the season or not, the downward trend seems to indicate that Heroes will actually be one NBC’s worst rated series by some point next season.
5. Why would you bring a show back knowing that drop is likely to occur, and that you will just be in the position of having the cancel the damn thing six episodes into next season?
6. Don’t anyone say “reboot.” Heroes is not going to reboot, retool, or rewire itself to any great effect. They have tried that, what, four times already? And ratings and quality just keep getting worse, not better. If you hit yourself in the head with a hammer for a fifth time, you are not going to find a different way of doing that isn’t painful and doesn’t cause brain damage. Heroes’ mediocrity is now an absolute, like the firmness of the earth.
7. Heroes is an EXPENSIVE mediocrity. They are paying a fortune for that falling demographic. At some point, even above average demos loss their value when their cost outsizes their return. After all, AFTERMash got pretty damn good numbers overall.
7. So adios, Chuck, and (maybe) adios, Heroes, and hello to your much, much, much, much less expensive alternatives.
schmokey, your analysis seems logically consistent. It’s possible that NBC tries that. I do agree that NBC is the big wild card this spring.
logically consisten Bill? Hardly.
“Whether the demo is still acceptable by the end of the season or not, the downward trend seems to indicate that Heroes will actually be one NBC’s worst rated series by some point next season.”
This is completely wacked out. Heroes fell 0.5 from episode 2 to 3, then another 0.5 from 3 to 4, then 0.4 from 4 to 5, and then held a 3.6 to the end of Villains. Upon it’s return it jumped back to a 4, and then back down to a 3.6 where it held until this last episode when it went to a 3.4. It stayed steady for a long time, it isn’t in consistent free-fall.
“So how can the worst performing network in the world even begin to contemplate making no changes at all? Not only should that idea get everyone fired, it might get some of them executed.”
Hyperbole I hope, observe the CW, UNI, MNT, ION and lots of other networks. It’s not the worst performing network in the world. Secondly, there will be changes made. Losing Kath & Kim, Knight Rider, Life, FNL and ER is going to clear up enough room for Leno. Plus they’re definitely going to kill Howie do It, that clears up 5 and a half hours. Leno will be taking 5 hours, and I think they may even kill L&O, which would be Six and Half hours, making room for an hour and a half of new shows, but we’ll see.
Finally, Heroes isn’t that bad! And plenty of tv websites are compiling lists of why you should go back to the show. Despite what your opinion is, a lot of people myself included to think it is getting better. This may not reflect in the ratings, but we’ll see.
Perspective, jonthemon. It’s all about perspective.
NBC is far and away the worst performing network. The CW and Uni and the others you mention are not networks. Well, they are but they aren’t. Let’s call them netlets, at best. NBC is in another league from that lot. NBC is spending a fortune that the others you name are not.
So from a return on dollars perspective, NBC is the worst performing network in the world, and Univision is the best. Univision is not trying to capture 10-20 million viewers with their shows. NBC is. And NBC is paying a wage that reflects that. Comparing NBC to Univision not only doesn’t weaken my argument, it bolsters it. Univision is a blazing success compared, well, pretty much compared to all of the other networks.
As for Heroes, again, you must have perspective. Heroes, relative to cost, will be the worst performing show on NBC if the demo gets down into the two’s. A 2.5 from, say, Life is a hell of a lot better than a 2.5 from Heroes. Not everything is equal to itself when you put the whole thing into perspective. And a loss of 1 million more viewers in the demo from this season to next is more probable than unthinkable. A show cannot be considered to have stabalized two days after it pulled the worst ratings of it entire run.
Jeez, its total viewer numbers will be below those of Chuck by the end of the season. I know that’s not the most important number, but that’s a gargantuan nose dive from just the beginning of the season. And there are still, as mentioned above, those all time low demos they just pulled two days ago.
But I believe #1 on the NBC perspective list has got to be The Biggest Loser, which is pulling gargantuan numbers relative to cost. NBC must look at The Biggest Loser and shake their head everytime they think of greenlighting any scripted series, much less think about renewing the most expensive series on their network.
And before anyone says, “Well, they can’t just go all reality, all the time,” may I take a moment and point to Jay Leno? If anyone told you a year ago that Leno would be airing at 10 pm, five nights a week, you’d have said they were out of their mind.
As for quality, I wasn’t judging the quality of Heroes lately, because I don’t watch it. I was merely reflecting the mass of stuff I read about the show (although that mass has shrunk considerably in the last few months, which should also worry NBC tremendously—-no on is really even talking about Heroes anymore, not even to say that it stinks).
But the overwhelming majority of the mainstream coverage of the show that has appeared this season has been pretty much only been about the bad numbers it’s pulling and the bad quality of the show. I don’t write the stuff. I just read it.
Let’s not rule out the possibility of My Name Is Earl tanking as the rest of the season goes on…if that and Parks & Recreation under perform – an entire hour during the week could be freed up.
Schmokey, thinking on our earlier exchange and your point above, what NBC does is related very much to what’s in their heads right now. If it’s “We rock, line up those new shows and we’ll stomp the competition” then I think Chuck and Heroes are in more danger. If it’s “Zucker
man’s gonna kick our asses outta here if we screw up and cost him lots more money” then they keep marginally performing old scripted shows vs. canning them and rolling the dice on more new ones.I hate CBS and I watch nothing on the station!
Agree 100%, Bill. It will be interesting to see in what direction they leap, but it would still seem crazy to me that Zuckerman would let them stick with what has been one of the worst performing schedules in major network history.
Of course, I think it’s crazy that Silverman still has a job at all, or that it wasn’t Kring who was fired from Heroes instead of the scapegoats they choose. So what do I know?
Zuckerman = Ben Silverman and Jeff Zucker combined?
Freudian slip!
If it’s “Zuckerman’s gonna kick our asses outta here if we screw up and cost him lots more money” then they keep marginally performing old scripted shows vs. canning them and rolling the dice on more new ones.
I’m not so sure because there is option b.) replace marginally performing scripted shows with UNSCRIPTED content, and there’s also option c.)roll the dice on replacing marginally performing shows from OTHER STUDIOS (Chuck = Warner Bros) with a show from NBCU studios. If it fails, it fails, but it might not result in as much of an ass-kicking. They’re not going to close down NBCU studios, and the studio exists to make content.
with 1 hour less a night with leno where is that Barely Lagal sitcom going to go
Hi. I’m new to posting here but I have a question to bring up. On the Renew/Cancel List, L&O:SVU looks good for renewal. But the contracts for Christopher Meloni and Mariska Hargitay end with the current season. If one or the other or both decide not to return to the season for an eleventh season, what effect would that be likely to have on NBC’s decision on the show’s future?
Cathy, there are always possible circumstances where a show gets canceled despite good ratings. I mean, look at ER. It’s well within renewal, but the producers had already decided to end it this season and so it’s gone. If Hargitay or Meloni decided not to come back, the producers and the network would have to decide if the show can survive without them. (Considering the numbers, NBC would almost definitely want it to continue, but whether the producers would be amenable to that is another question.)
How NBC killed Chuck:
1. Didn’t bring it back post-strike.
2. Left it on Mondays when it should’ve moved it come mid-season
3. Never aired in-slot reruns.
4. Didn’t give it the post superbowl slot
5. Giving 5 primetime hours to Leno
6. Gave it a longer winter break period than any other show had.
7. Not enough promotion (I mean, get Zach Levi to host SNL!)
This sucks.
Thanks to everyone who responded to my Knight Rider comment…by the way, I was being rather sarcastic with the comment, as I have read a few devoted fans’ pleadings for NBC to renew that show on this here webpage, and it gave me a few CHUCKles!
But it’s true that with this wonderful medium called the Internet, we can debate ad nauseum over what NBC and the other networks will decide to do next year, and if you are a fan of a particular show, you can make your points to keep the show known to the world.
Unfortunately, science and technology have yet to perfect the decision-making processes of those entities known as network programming executives.
Richard, there is actually a whole lot of science around how network programming executives make most renew or cancel decisions. It’s very basic science (and math, for that matter), but science nonetheless.
If Knight Rider is renewed, you’ll have to chalk it up to art or craziness but if it’s cancelled you can chalk it up to simple science.
i just can’t see Chuck getting canceled, I love the show and considering how NBC is doing overall Chuck is fine!
Chuck is my favorite show on T.V.
But if you consider that there’s only 8 hours left of primetime between monday and thursday you have
1 hour for heroes
1 hour for deal or no deal
2 hours for the biggest loser
30 minutes for 30 rock
30 minutes for the office
1 hour for law and order svu
1 hour for medium
all of these shows would get renewal priority over chuck, sot that leaves one hour of prime time between monday and thursday.(thank god that this is E.R.’s final season or chuck would stand no chance).
so for chuck to come back we need to hope that all of the spring pilots suck(considering amy poehler is doing one that is unlikely).
And even if they do suck NBC has to decide to renew chuck instead of having a historic 20th season of law and order.
prognosis: things look grim for chuck:(
google,
I think Medium will come back mid-season. DoND is already on 5 nights a week via syndication–I think NBC is saving it only for special airings during sweeps. If they were to air it on a regular basis, the franchise will go down the drain as what happened to Millionaire.
NBC has also made a blind series commitment to Legally Mad—so that’s one more hour taken up in their Fall line-up.
Heroes will probably get only a 13 episode order but if its demo continue to sink, NBC may just cancel it.
I see Chuck coming back mid-season or going to USA. However, I could also see it coming back for a full season but a lot of things have to go their way: Heroes is canned, Kings & Southland does poorly, and its demo improves.
I see Medium and L&O as mid season shows.
Regarding Legally Mad, we have no idea when that’s going to premiere. For all we know, it could debut during the summer or be another mid season show. Remember, The Philanthropist was suppose to debut this year during the spring and nothing has happen so far.
Chuck will have a 50/50 chance of getting renewed if Southland and Kings do relatively well, but so far all their new shows have bombed. If those new shows bomb, then Chuck will have a great chance of season 3.
NBC has another show in the works. It looks like they only have ordered/will order six episodes, but considering this is Seinfeld I have no doubt this show will actually end up on the air. But this could just fill in the post-NFL, pre-Olympics period.
Julia I was right there with you thinking “chances this doesn’t get picked up for a series? ZERO!” Excuse me while I get back to hand-wringing over Chuck…
Indeed, I wouldn’t imagine that Jerry does pilots and then begs to get them picked up. You want to be involved with him, please write the check now.
The concept of his show sounds kind of lame. It doesn’t interest me at all personally. Just another lame-o reality show to fill time. BLAH. It will definitely be picked up I’m sure. If Chuck gets replaced by something LAME like that…I’m going to be PISSED!
NBC’s highest-rated Monday show be damned, it’s not looking good for “Medium.” It skews geriatric, NBC doesn’t own it, it’s not Zuckerman’s geeked-up pet project, and… do they even promote it anymore? ‘Cause judging by the level of on-air promotion, they’ve clearly fallen out of love with it. If anything is the “Las Vegas,” “Third Watch” or “Law & Order: Trial by Jury” of this season, my money’s on it.
When would it be the time to start worrying about Chuck? I’m willing to wait until and see how the next 2 episodes do, especially how it does with all the competition. I just hope Chuck doesn’t get too buried.
I really hope Chuck survives to get a season three. The show is so good and its the perfect mix of comedy and action. Every character on the show is likable and the chemistry between Zach and Yvonne is great.
if the two epsiodes of Chuck suck for X reason, would that mean its over… omg im gonna cry that is not AWESOME
I think Chuck is okay if its ratings remains steady in the next few episodes. But if it were to fall to 6 mil viewers and below a 2.0 demo, then Chuck would be in hot water.
I would put more stock in the ratings of the last 2 or 3 episodes of the season. Chuck has 8 episodes left and they all will be aired by the end of April. This should give NBC a clear indicator on Chuck’s potential come May when the fall schedule is revealed.
The bright note is Chuck has a trend of building upon its audience when aired in consecutive weeks. In season one, Chuck dipped to 7 mil viewers by episode 6 but was able to boost its ratings back up to 8.5 mil by the fall finale.
This season, episode 2 and 3 received 5.90 and 6.01 mil viewers respectively. However, as the season progressed, Chuck was able to slowly improve its ratings. The last three episodes that aired before the hiatus scored 7.25, 6.93, and 7.66 mil viewers.
Agent I hope you’re right! I hope they can at LEAST somewhat improve their numbers before the season ends. If they can do that with all the crazy competition, I’d say that says a lot about the show.
Does anyone know what NBC will air on 3/16? On the NBCU site, it list no new episode for Chuck, Heroes, or Medium on that night. All I can think of is the second part of the Kings premiere.
The Futon Critic says NBC is airing repeats on 3/16. Seems odd to me, since it’s sweeps.
http://futoncritic.com/news.aspx?id=7969
it may be odd, but lots of shows are doing it. It could be simply that sweeps is mostly a legacy that is good for PR but doesn’t matter *that* much anymore in terms of setting ad prices.
Well, it seems to me that this year’s sweeps may be a special case, but local ad rates are still set during sweeps. On a national scale, they’ve never meant much, but they still do mean quite a bit in local markets.
Julia, I agree that the sweeps matter more for the local markets, but I’m not sure this year it really does. The local markets are struggling so massively right now, it probably won’t matter much. The local affiliate model seems to be what is putting the biggest drag on broadcast networks economically.
It could be also for some of the shows that they needed to do it in order to make May sweeps works, though in the case of Chuck and Heroes, I don’t think they are airing in May at all anyway.
Leno will bomb at the 10:00 slot, is he guaranteed a set about of time before they can cancel it?
Well apparently Heroes is receiving budget cuts:
http://heroesspoilers-odi.blogspot.com/2009/02/breaking-news-chris-zatta-and-others.html
Some of the writers fired.
Seeing this news earlier in the week cheered me up quite a bit, but I’ve still been worrying like mad over the fate of Chuck. I wouldn’t be as worried if it weren’t for Leno, which I’m guessing will make the renewal line higher for NBC.
so from 1-10 how’s Chuck from getting a third season???
im new in this
I do like Chuck, a lot, but if I had to choose which one is coming back- “Life” or “Chuck”, Life would get my vote, if only they allowed its creator to continue along the path he started, not the, “let’s try this this week and hope the ratings improve” foolishness that has been going on since “trapdoor” episode.
Chuck is warm and sweet. Life is both of these and laugh out loud funny. Given the current state of junk on TV, both are deserving a third season,even if it is only to tie up plot points. (and I have the DVD’s of both shows 1st season and will purchase the second season, as well.)
from what im hearing Chuck is fucked up
@Chuck, it’s hard to handicap on that basis, but based exclusively on the numbers it would be pretty high (at least a 7). There are other factors I am worried about outside the numbers due to scheduling, but hopefully those fears really are entirely unwarranted.
Stephen Starr: I really enjoy Life too, but there is NO chance Life will be back on NBC next season. It’s chances on a scale of 1-10 are…less than 1.
i was jus asking bout Chuck lol, thanks for the info anyway
just saw Chuck’s episode i thought it was pretty good, i liked it.. what u guys think?
@ robert what do u mean bout those fears etirely unwarranted? sorry for asking
@Chuck, I meant I hope there really is no need to fear.
No matter what they have to have backup for Leno if it Bombs also they will have 4 hours on Sunday. I Figure
Sun:(Fall)Football/(Jan)Aprentice/Olympics/(restof season)(Dateline/FNL/Law&Order/Medium)
Mon: Heroes/new Show/Leno
Tue:Biggest Loser/new Show/Leno
Wed:New Show/Law&OrderSVU/Leno
Thur:Earl/new Paulin Comedy/Office/30 Rock/Leno
Fri:Deal or No Deal/(Howdie Do It or New Show)/Leno
Sat:Chuck/Knight Rider/(Best of Leno)(Law and Order CI(USA replays))
Yes I know Sat would never happen, Heroes is already making NBC money w/ syndicated rights already sold to cable, They seem to like Chuck so I figure it will be back at least for 13 episodes, same w/ Friday Night Lights.
Apartenly Heroes has been renewed: or at least Grey Grunberg says:
http://spoilertv-heroes.blogspot.com/2009/03/greg-grunberg-confirms-season-4.html
Fin, you are the master of the (true or not) breaking news! I do not currently think that Heroes is in danger. As long as the ratings are where they are now, I can’t believe that the cost of the show will cause it to be canceled. I think its more likely that they can work something out over the money.
Chuck will stay – I’d bet on it. It has a huge fanbase, NBC won’t want to risk alienating them on top of everything else.
Not to mention the fact that it has Adam Baldwin – his fans alone will make sure the show stays on air. They’d riot if he got canceled again.
Stephi:
I have nothing against “Chuck” but you clearly cannot make the “huge fanbase” argument. If the fanbase was big enough to matter, then the ratings wouldn’t even be an issue.
Knight Rider can´t die… again :C
Now that they look to be going to the right way… no.
There are many possibilities.
Devon didn´t have his death explained. If KR2000 was not ignored by this production KIFT can return as a villain.
Goliath can return with KARR´s cpu on it.
We could see Garth Knight again and Michael Knight should be regular in the show… KI2T should be there too, as special gueststar, at least.
Knight Rider forever…!
NBC has a great track record of canning great shows! I remember the jokers that plugged the plug on STAR TREK. Ratings are a joke! How many of you have a box that records what you watch and send to a rating firm or at least the old paper method? I can safely say about 98% of you don’t have that power. They should dump the Nilisen rating system or get more people involved. I don’t care if granny thinks Lawrence welk is still alive and she’s watching re-runs from the 60’s. I don’t watch L&O so I don’t care if they cancel it, but some of you do. I hate chuck, but some of you love it. So my point is if I was the basis for the ratings then both shows would be cancelled. I Want LIFE for Season 3!