Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles returned to Fox’s line up on Friday, February 13 and its ratings got caught under a machine press. That the show will be cancelled is a foregone conclusion now. I think it’s likely that it finishes out its run this season though.
A more interesting case is the new Joss Whedon Dollhouse. After 2 weeks, I’d put it squarely on the top of the bubble, but any more erosion and it’s going to be a permanent memory wipe.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Cancelled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES (FRI) | FOX | 1,781 | 3,530 | 0.50 | |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,530 | 0.59 | cancelled |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,530 | 0.67 | |
| DOLLHOUSE | FOX | 2,450 | 3,530 | 0.69 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 2,988 | 3,530 | 0.85 | final season |
| AMERICAN DAD | FOX | 3,594 | 3,530 | 1.02 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 3,820 | 3,530 | 1.08 | not renewed |
| BONES | FOX | 4,035 | 3,530 | 1.14 | |
| SIMPSONS | FOX | 4,220 | 3,530 | 1.20 | |
| FAMILY GUY | FOX | 4,536 | 3,530 | 1.28 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 4,584 | 3,530 | 1.30 | |
| 24 | FOX | 5,255 | 3,530 | 1.49 | |
| LIE TO ME | FOX | 6,008 | 3,530 | 1.70 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,161 | 3,530 | 1.75 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. Note that the Fox average used above is its final Season to Date average prior to American Idol (see below).
Notes:
Prison Break is in its final season.
‘Til Death has done terribly, and has been off Fox’s schedule since October, Sony Pictures has reportedly made Fox such a sweet deal for future episodes that Fox has bought another entire season, proving that at a low enough price that even a ratings black hole is worth suffering through.
Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles: The numbers above are for only its Friday airings that began on February 13, 2009. FYI, It’s 13 episode 18-49 average on Monday this season was 2.726 million.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
I completley agree with all of this. However, if Lie to Me cant hold up at 8pm, it will be cut.
I’m not sure, but i think Lie to Me will do pretty well at 8pm, it will have a lot less competition not having to go up against Lost and Criminal Minds and yes even Life. When it premiers in the 8pm slot all it will be going up against is the new nbc show chopping block, christine and the repeat of lost nothing that will really be going after the same viewers as lie to me. Now they won’t have the AI leadin but i think they will be fine.
The question Jon K. is the audience into “Lie To Me?”
Idol did wonders for 24, House, and more/less Bones.. Yes Lie will not have heavy competition, but can it stand it its own. That is the question.
24, House and Bones have proven to stand on their own. Lie To Me is the next test.
I really do not get why FOX is swapping ‘American Idol’ and ‘Lie to Me’. Because it is not going to ‘American Idol’ (or hurt it) and it will not help ‘Lie to Me’ no matter how much lack of competition there is (it does not get better than a post-’American Idol’ timeslot). Maybe, if FOX wanted to hurt ‘Lost’… but that is ending next year and surely helping one of your own shows is a higher priority than putting a dent in a show that has already announced its soon conclusion.
because they want to protect LTM of Lost and CM. is too early to tell but FOX can be #1 at 8 AND 9 (instead of being #1 at 8 and #3 at 9PM). LTM can beat the comedies of CBS, the repeat of Lost and KR. AI will beat Lost and CM easily. Also at 9, because of HUT, AI can have bigger numbers.
Terminator! No! It was getting there. There are barely anymore Jameron scenes. That’s one of their biggest mistakes! I wanted to see some more scenes. That’s what gets the viewers sucked into a show: romance. A cyborg and a future-hero together? What more can be interesting. Terminator is a prodigy show. Wait ’til the movie comes out…then it boom into a fantastic show.
Your point are valid, cool, but I think that I still would not have made the switch if I was in FOX’s position. And I think that ‘Lost’ and ‘Criminal Minds’ cancel out higher HUT levels.
Terminator/Dollhouse = gone!
Well, I don’t know about anyone else, Don, but I’m definitely into Lie to Me. I was hooked on this show after the very first episode. I think the premise is interesting and I’ve been a fan of Tim Roth ever since Pulp Fiction, so it’s cool to see him on a weekly show. I’ll keep watching, whenever they put it on. I just hope it sticks around for a while. I’ve noticed that shows I fall in love with usually get canceled, for some reason.
Dollhouse is not gone.
Terminator is, unless it gets better in the ratings, but I really doubt that considering this Friday is another “Crazy Sarah” episode. After that, the show will pick up, but there’ll be no one left watching. Except us diehards.
so fox moved lie to me from its slot?? if it has not a lead in anymore, it will drop week-byweek and die during this season
You guys don’t factor in AI because it would skew the demos so badly everything else would be below renewal, but it looks like Terminator has just the opposite effect! Okay, that’s obviously hyperbolic, but just taking out T:SCC brings Fox’s demo average all the way up to 4008 (making Bones the cutoff point of renewal – King of the Hill would be but already isn’t coming back). Yank out what’s already been cancelled/not renewed, and you’re up to an average of 4380, putting Bones on the bubble (again assuming the .92 stays the threshold).
@ Gusar
I agree. This crazy Sarah stuff really is terrible and has slowed the show to a crawl. I’ll still keep watching, but I don’t ever want to see the psychology stuff again.
The sad thing about TSCC is that it had a great season 1 and season-premiere but since then it just fell apart with boring storylines(Riley, bleh). As for Dollhouse if that hasn’t been a Whedon-show i would never have watched it. Still better than Fringe though.
I would put dollhouse on the low point of the bubble, trying to climb up slippery slope of the bubble away from cancellation. I don’t think Fridays get that much leeway.
Wow, Sarah Connor is doing way worse on Fridays…even worse than I expected. Oh well.
Nothing on Fox that I watch is in danger of cancellation, so I can look at this objectively.
I still can’t believe Sony offered Til’ Death cheaper than dirt. They should just come up with a new show to pawn off on Fox.
Despite whether or not Lie to Me holds up, its doing well enough that it will be back. FOX needs any drama it can get. Since Bones only 1 freshman drama has been renewed for another season (Terminator last year) and that turned out bad. Heres my guess at renewals/cancellations
Renewed: 24, House, Bones, Fringe, Lie to Me, The Simpsons, Family Guy, American Dad, Til Death, American Idol
Cancelled: Do Not Disturb, Prison Break, King of the Hill, Hole in the Wall, Terminator, Dollhouse
Fifth Grader & Lyrics are a toss up, its possible they could be kept maybe for the summer, but there ratings arent that bad to axe them altogether. Sit Down, Shut Up, will likely be kept for the 2009-2010 season and aired in the 7:30 slot, with the Cleveland Show airing at 8:30 or 9:30. But I doubt Sit, Down will live past next year.
Please Comment.
I would guess, for Fall:
Sundays: Simpsons/Dad/Guy/Cleveland
Monday: Dollhouse (if renewed) or New Drama/Fringe
Tuesday: House/New Drama
Wed: Death/Sit Down/Lie
Thu: Bones/Kitchen
Fri/Sat: Irrelevant reality nonsense.
(If Sit Down is help until 09/10, it will only be a Fall show – the lag on animation production is such that, even if renewed by October, they won’t have additional episodes made by February. Look for this to be paired with Death and keep an Idol slot warm in Fall.)
So, now we know that Simpsons will live for at least two more years! Cool!
Tom, I think that they would leave Sit Down on maybe 7:30 sundays and burn the rest of Til Death off at 7 too. I highly doubt Dollhouse will be renewed, though since Prison Break is gone FOX has a number of options (House, Bones, Fringe, Lie to Me) for Monday/Tuesday/Wedneday/Thursdays. Plus possibly new comedies and dramas. With the exception of sundays (The Simpsons/American Dad/Family Guy/Cleveland Show) FOX’s schedule for next season is very hard to predict, but I do know those 4 returning dramas will be on it.
I literally struggled to stay awake with last week’s episode of Terminator. Oh, I watched it on Hulu on Saturday, so I almost fell asleep on a rigid computer chair. I can’t believe a show that carries the name Terminator can be such a bore. The episode on the 27th looks like another snooze-fest.
Dollhouse has action in it, but I’m just not liking the premise. I’m betting it’s gone too. The last decent sci-fi show on the networks was canceled too early (Firefly).
Terminator and Dollhouse will both be gone by April. They are merely finishing out their runs of 22 and 13 episodes respectively. Prison Break & King of the Hill will also have there series finales by May. Freshman dramas Fringe & Lie To Me will be renewed. Everyone will just have to put up with Terminator & Dollhouse on fridays for the next 6 weeks.
I agree that while Terminator is most definitely gone (did they even intend to make a third season?) Dollhouse could go either way. Fox has promoted it hard, and for Fridays it could be doing worse I guess.
If Dollhouse does go, you know the Whedon fanatics will unleash their hatred on Fox again. Honestly though Dollhouse is definitely not Whedon’s best work…at all. In fact I think it’s pretty bad and would be perfectly fine with it getting canned.
I still have a glimmer of hope, Fox needs something on Fridays, and if Terminater stays cheap enouth with Dollhouse picking up viewers I don’t see the harm in trying both for another 13 weeks. The rest of Fox’s schedule will be in great shape.
SUn will stay animated:Simpsons/American Dad/Family Guy/Cleve
Mon: House/New drama
Tue: Lie to Me/Fringe
Wed:5th Grader/til Death/New Drama
Thur:Bones/New Drama
Fri:Term./Dollhouse
Sat: Cops/Americas Most Wanted
While it’s clear Terminator wasn’t doing terribly well to begin with and lost 1/3 of its 18-49 audience moving to Friday (as expected), cancelling it now would be a mistake.
The next Terminator movie, the first of a second trilogy, is coming this summer with a huge budget, promising buzz and a gerat actor who is developing a habit of resurrecting dead franchises. I’d be surprised if Terminator 4 wasn’t a big hit.
I think Fox should wait, order a third season for the fall with 9 episodes and see if the series can get a free boost from the hit summer movie.
melbye says:
The sad thing about TSCC is that it had a great season 1 and season-premiere but since then it just fell apart with boring storylines(Riley, bleh). As for Dollhouse if that hasn’t been a Whedon-show i would never have watched it. Still better than Fringe though.
Fringe is being mentioned in the news media as being a hit for Fox! Secondly, I’m saying this as a Whedon fan, but recent episodes of Fringe are much more interesting than Dollhouse at this point! Even Whedon probably agrees that Dollhouse isn’t his best work!
I like Terminator!! I watch it every week, haven’t missed an episode. Sure, lately it hasn’t been full of action like everyone would expect but every show goes through the same thing. Look at Lost and Heroes. Dollhouse, I’m getting into it but if it is canceled I wouldn’t miss it. I would miss Terminator terribly and I’m sure I’m not the only one! I also watch Lie to Me and Fringe and I really like both shows!
If Fox cancels another Whedon series after the first season I am done with them. I like House and Bones (a lot, actually) but not enough to keep watching if they jerk us Whedon fans round again.
I think Whedon/Dushku combination would be better with another Slayer spin off. I just don’t see Dollhouse making another season- hence, yet another great Whedon idea is wasted. Still, maybe it’s too early to say.
TSCC should have invested more into Summer Glau character- in my opinion she should have been a central figure of the show, since the rest of the cast and characters, with the exeption of Weaver and Ellison (to some extent), are tottaly boring. Riley and Jesse consumed much of the space reserved for Cameron and failed misserably.
Regarding the cast, I found Brian Austin Green to be a pleasent surprise considering his soap opera roots. Garret Dillehunt was really good and I hope to see more of him in the future.
If both shows are canceled maybe we might see Whedon/Glau combination this fall-which would be a good deal for the most of us watching TSCC and/or Dollhouse.
Trust me, Terminator will not get canceled. The movie will come out soon, and they will probably wait for that. Not to mention, there is 2 million + fans, on a show that last season had only like 5-7 episodes. People are still learning about the show, they barely know it exists yet. Give it time.
Trust me, I watched Terminator & Dollhouse. Terminator just makes dollhouse look like a low budget terrible show. TSCC is going to be more popular than Fringe even. They need to make some improvements first, such as putting more of Cameron (Summer Glau) into the scenes.
I watched all of Fringe as well, and I’ll tell you what, Fringe can get boring, and disgustingly awkward. The main actress is also pretty ugly. And the plots are predictable, with the mad scientist solving everything!
I watch, all the Fox shows, and TSCC is their best show so far. It has action, twisted plots, character dimension, and there’s a movie related to it coming out soon. If they cancel it, it will become a cult hit like Firefly.
What numbers are you using to calculate these random numbers????
STD as in standard deviation? Up to what date are you averaging?
TSCC average is currently:
5313
STD:
662
What dates are you averaging?
Jonathan, dang, you’re too lazy to actually read the post even though it answers your questions and then on top of that you have an attitude about it?
From the post above:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. Note that the Fox average used above is its final Season to Date average prior to American Idol (see below).
You’re citing total numbers. The index only focuses on 18-49. As for TSCC and what numbers were used, also from the post above:
Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles: The numbers above are for only its Friday airings that began on February 13, 2009. FYI, It’s 13 episode 18-49 average on Monday this season was 2.726 million.
I read the post, it’s vague as vague can get. It’s not lazyness, why would I ask if you already wrote it? I ask because it’s not clear in the writing.
You know what this translates to?
“The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership”
It translates to:
Sum / (Sum / Count) ==== Count
Unless you mean something else by “season to date viewership”, I’m assuming you mean the sum of the whole seasons number of viewers per show.
And why count from February, why not the whole season? Does Fox determine cancellation based on half-season averages? Because Before Feb, it was on a different time zone, and had much higher numbers. Did you do the same with Do Not Disturb and Prison Break?
And the Fox ratings you guys post on “Fox” category, is that not 18-49?
Attitude? You can tell my attitude from text? I was just curious as to how you got these odd numbers…
Jonathan, everyone else can easily understand the Renew/Cancel index. Why can’t you? The average 18-49 viewership for the whole network (in FOX’s case up until Idol premieres) is the network’s average STD (season to date, not standard deviation).
And, yes, they do keep the different days separate for other shows. If you go to the NBC page and see that Life is only calculated from its Wednesday airings. The reason for this is, particularly in cases like TSCC, the ratings it got in its current timeslot are often more important than the whole season.
With TSCC, when it was airing on Monday it was at .77 on the index. That is definitely grounds for cancelation. No questions asked. But Fridays have lower expectations. If TSCC were able to hold .77 on Fridays, it might be considered a bubble show. If you include its Monday ratings with its Friday ratings you make it seem like it has a chance. It doesn’t.
But DND and Bones are not on Fridays, so how would they compare.
Perhaps having a .77 on Mondays, was grounds for cancellation but a .50 on Friday, may not be…
No, .50 is grounds for cancelation everywhere.
By the way, Jonathan, this thread is from a few weeks ago. The current index has TSCC at .46
Yes Jonathan one can perceive an attitude in text form! Don’t try to pretend after you responding like you did wasn’t meant to imply a sense of arrogance! That’s so passive aggresive. You just got thrown under the bus because you were WRONG, and now had to back pedal and act like you weren’t just being pompous!!!
bobbie your forgetting that firefly wasent popular until after it was canceled…..
but if that post helps you sleep at night… feel free to believe it