The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you’re reading this after March 10, 2009 click here to see the latest list.
I’m certain that all 13 episodes of Dollhouse will air this season, so the results of the later shows, and their ratings trend, will matter a lot more than the shows that have already aired.
I’ve broken each network’s data for scripted shows out into its own separate post to keep the discussions more on topic, find them at the links below.
CLICK THESE LINKS TO SEE EACH NETWORK’S SCRIPTED SHOWS:
ABC: Ugly Betty Coming Back, On The Bubble No More
CBS: Flashpoint Looks Bad, But CBS Should Be Forgiving
CW: What’s CW To Do With Everybody Hates Chris& The Game?
Fox: Dollhouse’s Future In The Balance
NBC: Heroes Likely To Work Out The Numbers
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UNSCRIPTED SHOWS FOR ALL NETWORKS
For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership.
Since we, and you, don’t care much about unscripted shows, and the Index isn’t all that good in predicting their future, it’s not worth splitting it up into 5 separate lists, but here’s the data for comparison and reference purposes.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index |
| IN HARM’S WAY | CW | 355 | 1,030 | 0.34 |
| HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7P | FOX | 1,501 | 3,530 | 0.43 |
| AMERICA’S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,453 | 3,310 | 0.44 |
| GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD 830P | CBS | 1,778 | 3,860 | 0.46 |
| HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7:30P | FOX | 1,694 | 3,530 | 0.48 |
| GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD | CBS | 1,856 | 3,860 | 0.48 |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,763 | 3,530 | 0.50 |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 1,722 | 3,310 | 0.52 |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,932 | 3,590 | 0.54 |
| 48 HOURS MYSTERY | CBS | 2,100 | 3,860 | 0.54 |
| DON’T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 1,984 | 3,530 | 0.56 |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 2,029 | 3,590 | 0.57 |
| HOWIE DO IT 8:30 | NBC | 1,932 | 3,310 | 0.58 |
| DATELINE FRI | NBC | 1,962 | 3,310 | 0.59 |
| DATELINE SUN-7PM | NBC | 1,975 | 3,310 | 0.60 |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,175 | 3,590 | 0.61 |
| SUPERNANNY | ABC | 2,197 | 3,590 | 0.61 |
| HOWIE DO IT 8P | NBC | 2,036 | 3,310 | 0.62 |
| COPS | FOX | 2,184 | 3,530 | 0.62 |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,184 | 3,530 | 0.62 |
| MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD | CBS | 2,515 | 3,860 | 0.65 |
| HOMELAND SECURITY USA | ABC | 2,372 | 3,590 | 0.66 |
| KITCHEN NIGHTMRS-THU 8P | FOX | 2,362 | 3,530 | 0.67 |
| 13 – FEAR IS REAL | CW | 705 | 1,030 | 0.68 |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,440 | 3,530 | 0.69 |
| MOMMA’S BOYS | NBC | 2,369 | 3,310 | 0.72 |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,540 | 3,530 | 0.72 |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,639 | 3,590 | 0.74 |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P | FOX | 2,645 | 3,530 | 0.75 |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,512 | 3,310 | 0.76 |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED | NBC | 2,607 | 3,310 | 0.79 |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,868 | 3,590 | 0.80 |
| KITCHEN NIGHTMARES | FOX | 2,832 | 3,530 | 0.80 |
| EXTREME MAKEOVER:HM ED-7P | ABC | 2,952 | 3,590 | 0.82 |
| SUPERSTARS OF DANCE | NBC | 2,874 | 3,310 | 0.87 |
| PRIMETIME:WHAT WOULD U DO | ABC | 3,148 | 3,590 | 0.88 |
| AMAZING RACE 14 | CBS | 3,637 | 3,860 | 0.94 |
| STYLISTA | CW | 988 | 1,030 | 0.96 |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,572 | 3,590 | 0.99 |
| 60 MINUTES | CBS | 3,948 | 3,860 | 1.02 |
| AMAZING RACE 13 | CBS | 4,180 | 3,860 | 1.08 |
| FOX NASCAR SPRINT CUP PST | FOX | 3,832 | 3,530 | 1.09 |
| TRUE BEAUTY | ABC | 3,922 | 3,590 | 1.09 |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,260 | 3,310 | 1.29 |
| EXTREME MAKEOVER:HM ED-8P | ABC | 4,624 | 3,590 | 1.29 |
| BIGGEST LOSER 6 | NBC | 4,329 | 3,310 | 1.31 |
| FOX NASCAR SPRINT CUP | FOX | 4,819 | 3,530 | 1.37 |
| BACHELOR, THE | ABC | 4,999 | 3,590 | 1.39 |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,543 | 3,860 | 1.44 |
| SURVIVOR: TOCANTINS | CBS | 5,655 | 3,860 | 1.47 |
| HELL’S KITCHEN | FOX | 5,215 | 3,530 | 1.48 |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 5,369 | 3,590 | 1.50 |
| APPRENTICE 8 | NBC | 5,089 | 3,310 | 1.54 |
| BIGGEST LOSER 7 | NBC | 5,109 | 3,310 | 1.54 |
| DANCING WITH THE STARS | ABC | 5,789 | 3,590 | 1.61 |
| OT, THE | FOX | 5,772 | 3,530 | 1.64 |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 5,578 | 3,310 | 1.69 |
| AMERICA’S TOP MODEL-5 | CW | 2,564 | 1,030 | 2.49 |
| NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL | NBC | 8,533 | 3,310 | 2.58 |
| AMERICAN IDOL-WEDNESDAY | FOX | 13,172 | 3,530 | 3.73 |
| AMERICAN IDOL-TUESDAY | FOX | 13,315 | 3,530 | 3.77 |
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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
I am very optomistic that ratings for both Sara Conner Chronicles, and Dollhouse will pick up. Both shows feature actors who are Whedon alumni. The first 3 episodes of Dollhouse have been great, and I love Terminator. With the movie Terminator: Salvation scheduled to release in September, interest in the series is bound to rise.
CubsDetroit Lions fan?Ha Ha Ha!!!ROFL. Nah, I’m a D-Backs fan (we have droves of folks who come here, just to watch the Cubs practice!). Still, I’m optomistic because the shows are SMART, and Sarah Connor has some of the highest production values (in my opinion) of any show on right now. Of course, I love SciFi, rather than just watch it, so I’m biased.
Survivor’s spring season never really has a chance at topping the fall season that came before it…as seen above, Tocantins has almost slipped below Gabon already. It’s not unusual for the spring seasons to have a better start, but then they get schedule ****-ed by March Madness and the occasional Thursday AI episode.
Mike Keller, I totally agree about Terminator with you. Great writing. Dollhouse…meh, they rely on too much sex appeal which is a turnoff for me. Lost has some incredible writing too except for the Jack/Kate/Sawyer love triangle. That’s tacky and aimed at bringing in female viewers.
Sorry buddy Terminator and DOllhouse are both goner! Hello FOX is not CW, NBC wouldn’t even consider those ratings except for Friday Night Lights
CW needs to pull what FOX did when it was young – get more original programming in the summer – maybe build on a short spin off of Smallville with Chloe adventures or Green Arrow – then put another new show with it…or have a limitd run of original episodes of Smallville or something else to launch another new show in the summer – Networks seem to have more original programming these days in the summer but over-all there’s still less competittion.
CW needs to come up with a new game plan or they may never make it out of the cellar.
Dollhouse has some things going for it.
- It may get better in quality, it’s not bad but it’s not stellar either;
- It’s a Joss show and Joss has some reputation in the industry;
- It’s produced by FOX;
- It probably will have good DVD sales.
And other things against it.
- Bad buzz;
- Bad lead-in.
I just hope it gets stronger in ratings in the future. I see it being renewed with a 1.7, but it has to improve a bit.
you really think fox will renew a 1.7? maybe NBC or the CW, but fox has much higher ratings than that normally…
Heck, house reruns probably get a 1.7
djm,
“Heck, house reruns probably get a 1.7″
No. They don’t. And House reruns don’t have better C3 or DVD sales.
It’s not like they have anything better to put in that time slot.
i think we should have another color for shows that have already been renewed (24,Lost,30 ROCK , The Office etc.)
Kevin Reilly had something interesting to say to the Hollywood Reporter
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3ic8f85937f15b71d12ab1acf7e3d694ca
THR: Can “Terminator” or “Dollhouse” financially make sense as broadcast shows next season if their ratings don’t improve?
Reilly: Advertisers have liked the shows. Both shows are doing well on a c7 basis. It’s too early to rule them out.
Y, we have that excerpt in the Ugly Betty returns story on the main page with more as well.
Ive been reading on this site for awhile and it seems like all the new shows i like (excluding the mentalist) are in trouble. I have really liked TSCC and unfortunately knowning that it is ending makes it a little less enjoyable to watch. But on the brite side if Summer glau is outta work maybe she’ll need a new sugar daddy:)
Why does anyone even listen to critics? Are people sooooo unoriginal that they haveto do what everyone else does? COme on dollhouse is sooo good!!! watch it everyone
Sadly once again several programs that are called failures on the broadcast networks could or likely would be called a successful show if on a cable channel. Terminator, and Dollhouse likely would be successful if on FX. I watch most of these every week (I have five DVRS) by spreading them out to hours that are not some competitive. Battlestar Glactica at the most got maybe four million viewers at one time but has been on for over nearly four years. Wake up executives at these companies and keep some of these weaker shows one of your cables channels. Just ask Bonnie Hammer at USA Network how well Law and Order Criminal Intent helped her grow here networks ratings after the show failed on NBC. USA and SCIFI made more money than NBC made.
I tried to give Dollhouse a chance because it’s a Joss show but the writing is terrible, disjointed and plain illogical even with a health dose of suspension of belief and Eliza is playing Faith to different degrees with each imprint. TSCC was great last year but this season, the pace has slowed down and there is barely any action which is silly for a Terminator franchise, I kind of want it to get renewed but I don’t think that its performance merits it.
I really like this show and Eliza Dushku… the only thing I don’t like is that they have Penikett from the re-vamp of Battlestar Galatica. BG has always seemed just an ‘eh’ show because I thought the acting and storylines are terrible. When I saw him in it, I immediately did a ‘you can’t be serious’. They can do so much with this shows concept if they just give it a chance to find an audience!