3/5 Update: NBC Exec: HeroesDefinitely Back For Fall
Heroes is way down from the heights of its earlier seasons. Heck, it’s way down from earlier this season. Fans are worried that the shows big budget might cause it to be canceled. I don’t buy it. I think NBC’s scripted line up is just in such utter shambles that NBC will somehow work out the numbers to bring Heroes back. It might come back with a big budget cut, and may not look like the current show, but I think it will be back.
Friday Night Lights will escape cancelation only through the continuing largesse of DirecTV or some other sugar daddy, its ratings are terrible. Life & Knight Rider look certain to be canceled. Kath & Kim didn’t have a bad start, but now it’s sinking and looks like a goner. Despite lots of worried fans out there, Chuck still looks good for renewal. Law & Order is right on the edge. I’m guessing history and the Dick Wolf mojo keep it alive.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 1,167 | 3,310 | 0.35 | finished |
| FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS | NBC | 1,832 | 3,310 | 0.55 | |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 1,969 | 3,310 | 0.59 | canceled |
| LIFE (WED) | NBC | 2,354 | 3,310 | 0.71 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,405 | 3,310 | 0.73 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2,636 | 3,310 | 0.80 | canceled |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 2,878 | 3,310 | 0.87 | |
| LAW AND ORDER | NBC | 2,989 | 3,310 | 0.90 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,343 | 3,310 | 1.01 | |
| CHUCK | NBC | 3,347 | 3,310 | 1.01 | |
| MEDIUM | NBC | 3,648 | 3,310 | 1.10 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,096 | 3,310 | 1.24 | final season |
| 30 ROCK | NBC | 4,184 | 3,310 | 1.26 | |
| LAW AND ORDER:SVU | NBC | 4,511 | 3,310 | 1.36 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,218 | 3,310 | 1.58 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,280 | 3,310 | 1.60 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. I have adjusted the NBC adults 18-49 season to date average to remove the increase (of 370,000) it received during the Super Bowl week because that increase had nothing to do with the normal viewership of the network or any of its other shows.
Notes:
Friday night – Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I’m indicating renewal for them.
Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
Friday Night Lights. Even for Friday night, those numbers are turn out the lights awful. But last season, DirecTV pulled out its checkbook and the show continued for another season. If DirecTV (or someone else) is inclined to do it again, the numbers may not matter at all. If they’re not inclined to write the check again, the show’s certain to be cancelled at the end of this season.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
HURRAY
my prediction: life, friday night lights, kath & kim, knight rider are all as good as dead. chuck l&o and heroes all make it to fall, but perhaps one or two are saved as november fill-ins (in case nbc’s fall 09 is as bad as their fall ‘08) or as mid season replacements.
Keep it up Chuck!!
YOWZA!!!
Chuck’s in the green baby!
I just can’t get into Chuck. A lot of posters like the show. Granted I liked the premice of the show but their are other shows I am more intrested in and that includes Heroes. They should plan their exit next year and with any more volumes they are able to write.
Network TV may not be able to have such shows like Heroes or Chuck in the comming years…their will be scripted shows but they will have to appeal to broad audiences.
Is that a bad thing…it depends on what shows you like.
I think your right Don… networks like NBC or the CW can’t really get away with having diehard-only shows.
Next week the return of “Dancing With the Stars.” That will put some aches in NBC for sure…and a bit of aches in me too.
Looking good for Chuck. Even with a drop in their 18-49 average, NBC fell even more. And after this weeks episode increase in their demo numbers, their index number should go up next week.
Great to hear positive news on Chuck. Great writing, great characters. There’s nothing like the Jeffster.
Count me in as a card carrying member of the Nerd Herd.
J.
folks, I encourage you to remember that the index is a RELATIVE measure (relative to overall NBC performance, in this case). Without Sunday Night Football, the overall average has been sliding. Even Knight Rider picked up a tick in the index week over week and it didn’t even air!
Yeah, I’m definitely one of those worried Chuck fans. I just really don’t want to get my hopes up (but I find they’re getting up there, anyway.)
Indeed, the surest way to increase your relative performance on NBC now is to stay off the air!
Edit: But it was the same last year.
Chuck fans might not need to worry any longer. If the show can stay ahead of My Name Is Earl in the index, there’s a chance that NBC doesn’t renew any of Earl/Kim/Parks and gives the 8PM slot on Thursdays to Chuck. Wouldn’t be a bad fit since it’s a drama/comedy.
I’m guessing Earl gets renewed, and probably Parks, too – Amy Poehler and Rashida Jones are probably going to pull in a lot of viewers. Though I agree, Chuck would fit well on Thursdays. (Or any night – pleeease, NBC, just give it a night! And preferably not Friday. But I guess I shouldn’t be picky.)
I don’t see Chuck getting cancelled, it seems to have a solid fanbase and any drop in numbers is because the audience as a whole has dropped due to TS, I’d say. Life and ath & Kim are goners to be sure, but everybody can see that, and from what I’ve been reading everywhere Knight Rider is already gone. NBC has been calling the next episode in their current promo the series finale, no longer the season finale.
That spells doom for Knight Rider, for sure.
Bill, you just made my week with the renewal index for Chuck. Thank You
Wow this tell you how bad is NBC doing, with a show like Heroes getting mediocre ratings is almost in the top of the list.
Note that the only ‘Heroes’ repeat that has aired this season was on a Saturday, so it did not bring down the average, whereas ‘30 Rock’ and ‘Law & Order’, etc. have been playing repeats in their timeslots. If not for the repeats, ‘Law & Order: Special Victims Unit’ would likely be just a few points behind ‘Heroes’ in the ~1.50’s.
Is Merlin still going to air on NBC?
Just finished watching the Biggest Loser on NBC and they had a promo for Knight Rider’s episode tomorrow night. The called it the very last episode of the series, said it was the Series Finale. Has Knight Rider been officially axed by NBC?
ghost, the chances for it NOT being the series finale are nil. knight rider has been doomed for a while. fans of Life should also get their fill until april 8, because that is another one sure to be gone after this season.
I watched Merlin on the BBC and was totally hooked. I usually don’t like such shows, and only watched at first because I love to watch Anthony Stewart Head in anything – but it really grew on me. I hope it airs on a broadcast network instead of the SciFi Channel so more people in the states get a chance to see it.
I’ve been as hard on Heroes as anyone (the wrath of the middle aged fanboy spurned), but I have to admit that even I don’t really think it’s not coming back. It’s going to have to eat a massive budget cut, and that may make for a lot of deaths in the finale, but there is no way NBC cannot take another whack at getting this show on some sort of track that will let them eke out another season or two to pad the DVD revenues.
Maybe switch it up and do a sort of Long Day’s Journey Into Night chapter with the Petrelli clan. Everyone can booze it up and let their power freak fly as they heap untolds amount family drama and guilt all around the Petrelli Penthouse. Syler could be the Gentleman Caller who enters by way of another story altogether.
Or something like that. Something cheap, because the only way Heroes could get themselves cancelled is by not agreeing to cut it back to $1.98 an episode.
Nice to see Chuck looking so solid. It’s and up and down show, but it’s fun. The good ones are really worth it. These days, what more can you ask for? Same for Earl, which was more down than up this season but still had some pretty funny ups.
i love the new knight rider. pls give us a second season its had its up and downs but its a lot better than it was. i back knight rider love it BIG UP THE KNIGHT RIDER
Actually Knight Rider has gotten a lot worse since they revamped it, and the retooling episodes themseleves were quite awful. Overall Knight Rider has been badly written and I can completely understand why it’s been such a huge ratings failure from nearly the beginning. NBC most likely cancelled it a long time ago, not just this week as they are saying in their Series Finale promos.
(I just discovered this site, so if this has been answer a zillion times, forgive me…)
Do the calculations here reflect the Leno Invasion? Isn’t the addition of the new Leno talk show going to eat up the 10pm (ET) slot every week night. That doesn’t leave much space. If L&O is renewed, if Medium is renewed they will have to move on the schedule.
Tony, they do to the best of my ability, but since it’s such a big change it’s hard to be certain what NBC will do. My guess is that L&O and Medium could be mid-season shows on Sunday nights once football is done. Still, that leaves almost no room for new shows from Monday-Thursday.
wow, Chuck is now doing better than Earl…although no in-slot reruns so…I guess not.
@ john-if chuck gets beat by earl reruns, the buymore will be torched….
on a totally unrelated point, has NBC announced leno’s timeslot? here’s what I’m thinking:
If the digital transition actually happens(who knows, might get pushed back some more) then NBC affiliates might be able to have more than one channel. In my area NBC has 2 channels. so Leno could be in the 11pm slot instead of local news, which gets pushed to the secondary channel. that would re-open the 10pm hour for other shows. Or is NBC trying to pull a FOX and cut down on the number of programs they have. Thoughts?
djm, Leno is at 10. Don’t look for funny scheduling on the different digital channels.
nuts bill, I thought I had it all figured out.
@ tony NBC could move L&O, SVU and CI onto one channel. Have the Law and order channel =p
Except that L&O might get axed this year, and CI has been delayed until May I’ve heard. It’s more of a summer series now. No, NBC is most likely going to fill the two hours before Leno with it’s successful series and new shows. Failed series like Kath & Kim and the truly awful Knight Rider are already gone in NBC’s mind.
Just curious, I keep hearing NBC’s new shows being talked about like it’s almost a given that they’ll fail, with the exception of maybe Parks. Can I ask what the reasoning is behind this? While neither Southland nor Kings really appeal to me, Americans are suckers for cop shows, and the premise for Kings seems relatively interesting. I’m rooting for these shows to fail in hopes that it will be good news for Chuck, but I’m just wondering if these shows should really not be seen as a threat.
Heather, I haven’t seen the shows, and I certainly cannot speak for anyone else, but my guess about the success of the new NBC scripted shows is based entirely on the Silverman-era success with scripted shows, which has not been good.
Thanks, Bill! That certainly makes sense.
Why aren’t reality shows on here? What’s the point of figuring out what comes back when the Biggest loser isnt factored in – and it could take up a whole night – nor is Apprentice?
I LOVE LOVE LOVE Chuck. I am really worried but happy to see this. Does anyone have any idea when they might announce their plans to renew or not?
Tim, click the “All unscripted shows” link in the network links at the top of the post.
Jamie, I doubt it will be announced until April or May. Normally announcements of the Fall schedule come in early May, but at least last year NBC announced a little earlier than the other broadcast networks.
Does STD 18-49 average for a show include the times when it’s a rerun? Or does it only take into account new airings?
Chuck! I love this show, and even though this does look positive, I won’t stop worrying for its fate until they tell us for sure. I honestly believe that it is one of NBC’s BETTER shows, including all of this reality crap, and it deserves another season if not more. Just because it does not have exploding viewer numbers like say Grey’s Anatomy, or House which it is against and fighting a good battle, does not mean it is not worth it.
David, these averages take into account any rerun airings in the normal day/time slot as well.
I feel exactly the same way you do Chris! No matter how “positive” it looks, I won’t stop worrying until I know for sure!!
Kings has a good chance of doing well I think. I’m will to give it a shot. It’s definitely looking better then any of the other canon fodder NBC put out earlier in the year, like the epic fail that was Knight Rider.
i’m so sick of nbc cancelling my shows .. i’m not even going to bother with their new stuff like kings.. they cancelled journeyman,lipstick jungle,my own worst enemy,bionic woman, and now knight rider(?) and crusoe… f*** em!!
knight rider isn’t canceled. it’s in danger, yes, but keep sending letters of support to NBC.