3/5 Update: In an interview with James Hibberd, ABC Entertainment chief says, “Ugly Betty will return”
With Life on Mars canceled, Ugly Betty sits alone on ABC’s renewal bubble at the moment. That will certainly change as a raft of new shows hit the beach for ABC in the next few weeks. If those new shows fail, Betty is safe. If they don’t, it’s going to produce some tense times for Betty fans. Given the recent track record of new ABC shows, I’ll give the edge to Betty renewal at this point.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P | ABC | 2,183 | 3,590 | 0.61 | final season |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,264 | 3,590 | 0.63 | cancelled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,365 | 3,590 | 0.66 | cancelled |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,460 | 3,590 | 0.69 | final season |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,549 | 3,590 | 0.71 | cancelled |
| SCRUBS-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,781 | 3,590 | 0.77 | final season |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,856 | 3,590 | 0.80 | final season |
| SCRUBS-TU 9:30PM | ABC | 2,868 | 3,590 | 0.80 | final season |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,076 | 3,590 | 0.86 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,160 | 3,590 | 0.88 | cancelled |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,589 | 3,590 | 1.00 | |
| PRIVATE PRACTICE | ABC | 4,149 | 3,590 | 1.16 | |
| BROTHERS & SISTERS | ABC | 4,702 | 3,590 | 1.31 | |
| LOST | ABC | 6,353 | 3,590 | 1.77 | |
| GREY’S ANATOMY | ABC | 6,810 | 3,590 | 1.90 | |
| DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES | ABC | 7,474 | 3,590 | 2.08 |
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Notes:
According to Jim: After 8 seasons, and recent horrible ratings, but presumably great sydication profits, ABC’s According to Jim looks like its prime-time run is coming to an end this season as one of the stars says the stage has been bulldozed. That seems pretty final to me.
Scrubs: Eight seasons is the end for Scrubs as well. Update: Or perhaps not. I am doubting that retraction, I believe he spoke the truth initially and then got his hand slapped and tried to backtrack.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Still hurts that Dirty Sexy Money died: at least Desperate Housewives is still King, or queen… Hope, really hope for season four of Ugly Betty. Did like Scrubs the new season looked a bit overdone.
With all of these shows on the way out it seems as tho ABC is in the process of overhauling … What can we expect to replace these shows?
bill, wouldnt it be reasonable to assume that samantha could be considered a bubble show too? its retention issue seems to be along the same lines as worst week: thogh its numbers were decent, its expectations were higher than most time slots. of course, in roughly 3 weeks, i doubt this fact will matter, since im guessing its thursday performance out of motherhood will be used to judge a third season.
128boy, I’d say if ABC hadn’t lost so many shows already that SW? might be on the bubble, but the carnage has taken its toll so severely this season, that I just don’t think they could cut down that far.
ABC just renew Ugly Betty already, we all know that its coming back.
Dan, I’m not so sure about that. I think it completely depends on their pilot season. If they have enough to pick up to fill the schedule, bye-bye Betty.
wow ABC looks like NBC
ABC doesn’t look like NBC. ABC has a lot of cancelled shows because their standards are too high but they also have a lot of hit shows (Grey’s Anatomy, Desperate Housewives, Lost, Dancing with the Stars, The Bachelor) There’s no show in NBC that has the same rating as those shows have.
ABC has the best shows
I watched two of the four unaired episodes of Dirty Sexy Money! and dude it was great! better than the episodes of Private Practice, Grey’s Anatomy and Brothers & Sisters.
It just sucks that ABC didn’t air the last episodes of Dirty Sexy Money, Eli Stone, Pushing Daisies and According to Jim while they air repeats frequently. I also kinda miss Boston Legal and very sad about Life on Mars.
I think Samantha Who will tank at the new sched I also think their two sitcoms will tank too., I hope Ugly Betty gets a new timeslot and better timeslot because its a good show.
I can’t wait for Castle, Cupid and The Unusuals.
If it wasn’t for Dancing, yes, we would be speaking of ABC in the same terms as NBC. Their scripted fall schedule is a mess – only Sunday and (part of) Thursday is a lock, and Tuesday/Wednesday will be complete do-overs again.
And their spring shows don’t look promising – Cupid/Unusuals/Suburbia/Motherhood are all DOA, Ted is extremely doubtful, Who will drop enough to make its renewal a tough call, and only Castle will crawl into a “guaranteed” 13-episode order next season.
So if midseason crashes as much as we expect, then yes, Ugly will be back to start off Wednesdays to get to better syndication numbers.
Ugly Betty’s index and 18-49 is less then Life On Mars and yet Life On Mars gets cancelled, Hows that???
Memo, Betty has been pretty stable, but LOM has dropped like a stone this spring. Its recent broadcasts were *way* below its average.
I predict ABC will not cancel UB and will give it 2 more seasons.
Having let George Lopez and My Wife and Kids go….it’s their only signature comedy. No one outside of the US knows what Samantha Who is. Its good for diversity programming, and the perception is that it’s still a hit. And it probably brings in alot of money in licensing fees. Disney will not permit that show to leave their stable. If they do make the mistake of dropping it, I wonder if Ben Silverman would bring it to NBC since he was an executive producer and that show was his baby. It’s my favorite show, can you tell?!?!
I think Ugly Betty and everything in green is a lock for next season. I’ve been watching the previews for the new Spring shows and nothing really looks promising. The only ones I could possibly see getting a pick up for next season are Castle and possibly Motherhood, and neither appeal to me at all. Everything else I would definitely say is DOA.
OMG OMG OMG! ABC PLEASE DONT CANCEL UGLY BETTY, THIS IS SUCH A GREAT SHOW THATS SO ORIGINAL AND DIFFERENT, THIS IS ONE OF THE FEW SHOWS THAT I ACTUALLY TELL ALL OF MY FRIENDS TO WATCH BECAUSE I BELIECE IN IT SO MUCH. ALSO THE RATINGS IN THIS SHOW ISNT EVEN THAT BAD, C’MON ABC PLEASE DONT CANCEL ONE OF YOUR NEATEST SHOWS YOU HAVE TO DATE!
There are three shows on ABC that are good- Ugly Betty, Brothers and Sisters and Desperate Housewives- in that order!! The rest leave something to be desired. The only reason I started watching B&S and DH was because of UB. I can’t get enough of it. It’s the one show I look forward to all week. At 9 on Thursday night, I can’t wait for 8 the next Thursday. Letting it go would be a huge mistake!!!
There are no “bubble” shows for ABC: Lost, Desperate Housewives, Grey’s Anatomy, Private Practice, Ugly Betty, Brothers & Sisters, and Samantha Who? will return. The veterans According to Jim and Scrubs (which coincidentally premiered one day apart from each other) will end one day away from each other on May 5 and May 6 respectively. Boston Legal was also in its final season, and unfortunately the sophomore trio Eli Stone, Pushing Daisies, and Dirty Sexy Money are also gone as is Freshman Life on Mars. In the Motherhood, Better off Ted, Castle, Cupid, and The Unusuals; have not premiered yet but its possible things can go either way for the shows.
Ugly Betty is such a joyful show, how could this happened?
The number of viewers in China is probably bigger than it in America. But it doesn’t count, which sucks.
zhu, Betty is returning! Did you not read the headline or the very first sentence of the post?
ABC keeps ending shows they’ll be lucky if they have any content left for next season.
I LOVE Ugly Betty, Greys, and Private Pratice with a passion! I watch them every thursday and if i miss a night i watch them online!!! Ugly Betty was starting to get REALLY good and now the motherhood is taking its place??? I will for sure NOT watch the motherhood I hope its ratings are so so bad it gets canceled right away!
Sara, that style of rooting for the downfall of shows so your own survives is saved for fans of Chuck.
At least until Southland premieres.