We take a fair bit of abuse for some of our predictions, and we’re mostly pretty thick-skinned, and it’s a fact that sometimes we Bill will deliberately use words to incite the fandoms. But one thing that manifests itself over and over is a general theme where if a show’s ratings suck, and we say the show’s ratings suck, or, heaven forbid the analysis indicates the show is going to be canceled, some people have a very bad reaction to it.
It’s sad in a way, because really it comes down to the inability or unwillingness to differentiate between the following:
- Your show’s ratings suck
- Your show sucks
- You Suck!
If your show’s ratings suck, it quite often says absolutely nothing about the quality of your show, and it certainly doesn’t say anything about you. But some people react exactly as if it did, and at that point, unfortunately, they do actually start to suck.
Knight Rider will be canceled. So will Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles. That’s as easy to predict as predicting that the Detroit Lions weren’t going to go to the Super Bowl once they were 0-10. It’s not random at all. There’s some basic science around it that has proved right almost every time in general. And before you say, “but, but, but, almost every time is not every time,” it has in fact been right every time (so far) in cases of shows like Knight Rider and Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles.
In ALL cases like these, the shows get canceled
What case is that? The case when it’s a one hour scripted show and the show’s average ratings among 18-49 year olds are way below the average 18-49 ratings for the entire network. Here are some fairly recent examples of shows that during this very television season, we accurately predicted would not be renewed:
- Pushing Daisies
- Dirty Sexy Money
- Eli Stone
- Lipstick Jungle
- Life on Mars
What did all these shows have in common? They fell well below the network average for adults 18-49.
There are some exceptions
Yes, it’s not infallible and there are exceptions, even with shows that fall well below the network’s average. But it’s never Life on Mars and Eli Stone, it’s always freaking stuff like ‘Til Death and According to Jim that wind up being kept around despite horrible numbers, to make money via syndication where there is apparently a very lucrative market for 30 minute sitcoms.
Sorry, but total number of viewers doesn’t matter
People like to focus on total viewer counts, but the networks typically only focus on age demos. We can debate whether this is good or bad, or right or wrong but the debate won’t change that it is actually that way. There are lots of age and gender demographics, and to be honest, a show like Knight Rider typically did pretty well, relatively speaking with men under 50, but the overall average for 18-49 viewership was so low not even that could save it.
Sorry, comparing your show’s numbers to shows on Friday and Saturday doesn’t matter
Some people will suggest that some of the shows on Friday night don’t do that well, and so we’ll see some stuff about how Knight Rider has done better than some of the Friday or Saturday shows. With the exception of CBS (and FOX is giving it at least a half-hearted try) the networks mostly are shying away from scripted programming on Friday nights (and Saturday on NBC is nothing but reruns). Yes, there’s Friday Night Lights, but at least this year, that is because DirecTV subsidized the production of the show via a special deal with NBC. We anxiously await finding out whether that deal worked well enough to have another go at it.
Friday is different (and Saturday is even moreso)
Networks do make some special exceptions around ratings for a Friday night. For example, Ghost Whisperer on CBS typically is the most-watched program on the broadcast networks on Friday night. But if Ghost Whisperer pulled similar numbers Sun-Thursday it might well get cancelled. Because expectations are different (lowered) around Friday night programming, you can’t really compare how a show does on Monday on NBC to how a show does on Friday on NBC.
In the case of Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, even when you add in the DVR numbers (which were very good, especially considering the overall viewer totals) the 18-49 averages are still bad (and shrinking).
We typically only predict cancellation when we’re very certain
Our certainty comes from the numbers usually, and there are other factors. But with shows like Life, Knight Rider, Life on Mars – these are all shows that are performing (or trending to perform) well below average. We’re not talking about shows that are just about average or a little bit below average. Networks typically (though certainly not always) keep those shows. But in cases like Knight Rider, the numbers are well below average, and so it’s easy to predict. We don’t need press releases and announcements from the networks
I’m not sure if this approach will ever prove wrong with one hour scripted shows. So far, all one hour scripted shows that fall well below average wind up not getting renewed. That doesn’t mean your show sucked. And it certainly doesn’t mean you suck. It just means a show you like is going to get canceled.
Yep, that can suck
I know it sucks. But it doesn’t suck so badly that it makes me think I should just ignore the numbers. NBC’s Life is a perfect example. Barring a miracle never before seen where a downtrodden show (ratings-wise) miraculously improves its numbers a lot, I’m sure Life is getting canceled. That’s too bad, because I enjoy the show. But my enjoyment of the show doesn’t change that NBC isn’t going to renew it. When the news hits I won’t be shocked or dismayed, and if somehow magically Life’s numbers turn around? Yay! But in the meanwhile I’m not going to go and delete it completely from the Renew/Cancel index and hope nobody notices.
I look forward to receiving an e-mail that says, “You said Life was going to get canceled, and it didn’t!” And I look even more forward to Jupiter aligning with Mars to the point where somebody from The CW e-mails Bill and says, “You said Privileged would be canceled, but we renewed it. HA!”
Trust me, our friends at The CW would love to send Bill that e-mail, but unfortunately for Privileged fans, not probably anywhere near enough to actually renew Privileged. But here’s hoping…
This is going to get ugly.
Whoo, first! lol.
its a shame when quality shows like terminator and chuck are in such trouble and a big pile of steaming crap like heroes gets to just roll along
instead of watching heroes people should just read the x-men comics their talentless writers steal all there material from. it takes less time and they are better
Robert, you forgot to mention another reason that we can be sure Knight Rider will be cancelled- TV Guide says so:
http://www.tvguide.com/News/Heroes-Knight-Rider-1003687.aspx
Yet another TSCC is going to be canceled story. Any other predictions, like more violence in the Mideast?
I still catch the episodes on Hulu on the weekends, but I’m almost falling asleep through the last few. What I find amusing is that TSCC producer Josh Friedman names a character after the Fox president (Reilly), and she becomes the most hated on the series.
yeah reilly is the most annoying character on tv besides the whole cast of heroes
and maybe lila from dexter season 2
well unfortunately nymets, I’m a fan of stolen material. I like flashing pictures. and there’s the fact that I can’t read. plus piles of steaming crap are just amazing.
Have you ever thought that some people just find some shows entertaining for reasons you can’t understand? That maybe there isn’t any point to bashing shows on a website that talks about numbers.
Seriously, did you actually read this blog?
so you admit its stolen material thats how you defend your show
what is actually good about heroes the amazing original writing and storylines or the scary good acting
I always focus on the number of viewers not in the demo! Last year I didn’t even know what the heck is the 18-49 thingy.
Life on Mars was perfectly good in the demos last year even better than Private practice. Changing a timeslot can always change things and for Life on Mars its for the worse!.
The C7 ratings for TSCC is about 5.4 million. How is that below average for its time slot?
C7 includes DVR numbers for the 7 days following the show.
Good article. As you said, it’s really too bad about Life. I like it, and have even gotten a couple of other people into it as well. Great drama.
your right conner and thats been with the last 2 episodes which in my opinion have been the worst of the series. but the trailor for the final episodes look amazing
I’m being sarcastic nymets. I happen to enjoy Heroes. Is it great acting? no, I’ll be one of the first people to admit that. 3/4 of the acting on TV is shoddy, get over it. Are the storylines completely original? no, but then there are only so many stories that can be told about people with superpowers. What’s good about Heroes to me is that it’s entertaining. It’s a nice escape for me on Monday nights. I’ll admit I’m a fanboy when it comes to superheroes. So what? I’m entertained so I don’t see why I should have to explain anything. I don’t understand how people can watch shows like The Bachelor, or American Idol, or Dancing with the Stars. Does that mean I attack those shows? no. I just don’t talk about them. Why are you so intent on ripping one show anyway? what did it ever do to you?
i never watch terminator live its either dvr or hulu. maybe im part of the problem
i admit my hatred of heroes is unhealthy. i just dont know how anyone can say heroes is better than terminator life or chuck
what heroes needs to do is finally fire tim kring and try to bring in the battlestar guys to turn the series around. tim kring has had his shot hes failed its time to try something different
i dont think that fuller guy is the answer the fanboys have been waiting for
Is that really it? the fact that shows you like are struggling for ratings?
seriously? dude, for one, you can’t compare any of those shows (heroes included) because they’re all about completely different things. Comparing CSI and Law and Order are one thing, but come on, the whole premise of Heroes is way different than Terminator, and Life is way different than Chuck and etc. There’s no need to rip endlessly on one show just because you’re shows are on tough times. I feel for you on that man.
my shows are having tough times how is heroes doing. what did it beat chuck by this week. half a million. and its on at nine when far more people are watching tv
I don’t remember saying Heroes was doing awesome numbers. Don’t get on my back.
besides as a fan of heroes dont you think they need major changes. i thought this volume started pretty good but its gone right back to there old formula. i was just saying they should clean house and bring in someone new because it cant be disputed whatever there doing now isnt working
athough i have to admit terminator has been pretty bad lately also
besides summer in her underwear
there is actually no such thing as C7 (so far as I know) even though Kevin Reilly of FOX used that term (or it was incorrectly typed) in an interview with THR (where he also said “it’s too early to tell” which I personally translate to no chance).
Especially for Terminator, most of the DVR viewing won’t matter because most of the people watching on DVR will skip the commercials, but with the first episode that aired on Friday (that’s the most recent Live+7 data available), even with a week of DVR numbers baked in the 18-49 numbers were pretty pathetic for a scripted show, even for a Friday. Again, that was even with the DVR numbers included.
LOL I guess it’s inevitable that fans are going to take it hard when their shows aren’t doing well…but I appreciate the fact that you guys tell it like it is! That’s why I keep coming back to this site. I respect your opinions. Thanks for shooting straight with us!
how much does dvd sales really matter.
Wow, three articles in one day with Knight Rider slants, seemed to have hit a nerve I guess. My bad.
im a huge fan of terminator but theres no point in false hope the sooner people realize its done the better.
whos the hotter knight rider babe smith cho or deanna russo. i vote smith cho
why doesnt cbs turn jesse stone into a series the movies do pretty well
They do well in total viewers, but rather bad in the 18-49 demo, which is where most of the advertising money comes from.
Apparently FOX didn’t get TVBTN’s memo:
THR: Can “Terminator” or “Dollhouse” financially make sense as broadcast shows next season if their ratings don’t improve?
Reilly: Advertisers have liked the shows. Both shows are doing well on a c7 basis. It’s too early to rule them out.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3ic8f85937f15b71d12ab1acf7e3d694ca
GG.
maybe it was my lost slam that angered them.
Very nice article. It is astounding the number of folks who cannot separate their response to a show from its quality OR an informed discussion of its prospects. ‘I loved it’ doesn’t = ‘It’s great TV’ any more than “I hated it!” = “It sucked!”
In the end, its not the folks who hate a show that kill it — its the ones that are indifferent to it who do that.
holly thats true but what show on cbs does do well in the demos. i just have a man crush on tom selleck i need help
Stateeater:
It’s too early to rule them out is TV exec speak for “they’ve already been ruled out”. Just as him saying that the jury is still out on Remote-Free means “the jury has reached a verdict”. It was by no means the “Ugly Betty will be back” style endorsement but I admit that Reilly was not as damning about TSCC as Bromstad was about Life (“we wish the ratings were better”). And you saw Ostroff sing the praises of Privileged — a show she’d really, really like to renew (and I hope she can manage it just to annoy Bill G!), but almost certainly won’t.
You have to remember that especially for shows they know they aren’t going to renew that are still on the air (in the case of TSCC) there is no upside to being forthright as it impacts *current* advertising sales. Advertisers don’t want to advertise/pay as much for shows they know will be canceled.
how much do they get paid for showing the dodge ram 50 times an episode in terminator that has to count for something
I just read parts of the in depth pilot report from THR that includes interviews with each of the 5 network heads. There was so much spin, I got dizzy. Anyway here is what Kevin Reilly said about TSCC and Dollhouse:
THR: Can “Terminator” or “Dollhouse” financially make sense as broadcast shows next season if their ratings don’t improve?
Reilly: Advertisers have liked the shows. Both shows are doing well on a c7 basis. It’s too early to rule them out.
So other goodies:
Angela Bromstad (NBC) says Heroes will get a full season, Chuck is on the bubble and Lipstick Jungle and Life are as good as dead.
Nina Tassler (CBS) doesn’t think the network is overloaded with procedurals. The Wednesday comedy block will stay. Gary Unmarried is on the bubble, Worst Week probably will not return. The Unit is on the bubble.
Stephen McPherson (ABC): Ugly Betty will return.
Dawn Ostroff (CW): Our network with be the destination for young women, dammit!
Also, Sundays will not go back to affiliates. Everybody Hates Chris and The Game still on the bubble. Privileged is on the bubble. There will be reality shows in the summer.
Andrea, check out the post before this one on the new posts list…Bill did a post of that, complete with spin translations!
And Jenna, Mel, etc, thanks.
i would love terminator to continue but honestly in my opinion the last few shows have been pretty week and have you seen the new trailor with john and cameron like making out kinda cheesy
From what I understand the advertisers have already paid for their time slots for this season of T:SCC. So I don’t see how that could effect FOX. FOX out right saying T:SCC is going to be cancelled would also send signals to advertisers that FOX cares about its ratings, and will do what it has to do to be more competitive.
From what we understand as of now, FOX hasn’t decided the fate of the show yet. We also have learned that FOX does take into account other numbers and data besides live viewings, which is an archaic system in itself (not to mention flawed).
how did the first season of terminator sell on dvd. does that matter
I see Stateater beat me to the quote.
However, expect the fanz to flood the internet with it to show FOX’s commitment to both shows…
Didn’t Nick C say that a 2.0 would be good enough to renew TSCC? I guess he meant live, but with the DVR numbers you do basically get there…
Stateater, I’m willing to beat a $100 (or $1,000 or even $10,000 in the case of Knight Rider and TSCC) that those shows will not be picked up next year by the networks currently airing them. If I lose, I’ll make a donation to your favorite charity, if you lose you make a donation to mine.
There’s no doubt that all networks LOOK at all the data, but except in the case of the C3 (commercial viewing) it’s mostly used for PR. If TSCC would have had a 1.8 18-49 rating Live+SD that bumped to a 2.3 with Live+7, that would be a very different story perhaps. But last week its Live+SD# was 1.2 that might bump up to a 1.7 with 7 days of DVR (we won’t actually know for 2 more weeks, sadly). It’s not good enough.
fox better do the right thing those whedon fanatics might all drink the jonestown koolaid if their beloved joss gets screwed again
Nymets: They’re not making out. Obviously he just fell on her.
Rachel, he said a 2.0 or better w/18-49s with the C3 data. I hear that TSCC doesn’t have great C3 numbers either for Fridays, and (unsurprisingly)isn’t getting the commercial viewing benefit that Dollhouse gets due to remote-free, but i haven’t seen the #s
after all it was number 1 on hulu and itunes and probably in across the world 2. i heard its kicking ass in somalia
Andrea,
I think it is only fair to say that everyone here, including TVBTN, are nothing but speculators.
Reilly’s comment is the most recent and most insightful information on the matter than anything else at the moment. There is no reason to interpret his quote any other way than FOX has not made a decision either way.
i also hear that knight rider is in the top 10 on DVR views.
oh yeah, and knight rider is also on the front page of the most popular videos on hulu.
well i would fall on her too after seeing her in her undies last week. cyborg or not
i was being sarcastic sarah. so isnt jimmy fallon hows he doing havnt watched yet
Don’t forget, Summer is on Monday’s The Big Bang Theory (fully clothed, though, sorry)
nymets: i wasn’t. jimmy fallon is… eh. i’m a huge conan fan, so it’s hard. he’s working on it, i guess.
And that episode is called “The Terminator Decoupling.”
Fully clothed Summer is fine with me though, as I am a girl.
it should be called the terminator spooning
as hot as summer is the 2 chicks on night rider are better wonder where they will end up
fallon has had some good guests but deniro is usually a terrible interview. i think this is really fallons last big shot. hes done if this show fails
i think fallon is funny as a person, i dont know about the talk show thing though.
he has to be funnier than craig ferguson. god that guy is dull
i don’t really like anyone else on right now. i was just a conan fan.
when does conan start
i like when he talk to like the fake arnold and bill clinton with there faces on the screen just there lips moving
yeah, that was funny. i think conan starts up again in june.
how come we cant comment on the news stuff anymore i want to laugh at the olberman nuts when he gets beat by nancy grace. do we really need to see the oreilly vs olbermans every week. olbermans about as close to oreilly as reaper is to american idol
Here’s what I want to know: why do networks pick up bad shows? Don’t these execs look at the scripts before they go to pilot? If FOX had a problem with Whedon’s Dollhouse pilot, it must have been reflected initially in the script…so why pick up the series in the first place if FOX doesn’t think that it will fly?
I have the same question about Do Not Disturb…why go through the whole expensive process of producing this show if it isn’t funny? Can’t the execs tell that in the pilot?
american idol sucks. so does lost and heroes.
dont talk bad about heroes sarah ive already had like 2 death threats tonight when i did. lol
i have 2 disagree about lost though i havnt loved tv as much as lost since buffy the vampire slayer
lol nymets. i can take it
see andrea i thought the dollhouse pilot has been the best episode but the last 2 went way down
i agree though sarah heroes sucks i love chuck though but it doesnt look good
sorry folks, i’m not going to allow chronic bashing of shows, or using the comments as an instant messaging tool.
Talk about just making conversation…
Andrea, it’s a good question, my first guess would be just human nature and that a bunch of people line up being so enamored with a concept and hopeful for improvement that, some bad stuff makes it through.
at least the cw didnt pick up milf and cookies remember that one
there are some standards though the cw didnt pick up milf and cookies and abc declined footballer wives they woulda been so bad they wouldve been entertaining
I thought 82 comments was a lot. Turned out like 70 of them were by 1 person. Wow.
I realize the rationalizing that Terminator fans are going to try to do, I realize that they’re going to try to sell themselves on the idea that there’s a chance that it’s coming back, but eventually i’d hope reality will set in. The numbers aren’t good enough end of story.
As far as Knight Rider goes, well, that was just a bad idea to begin with.
And while people are talking about Fallon, i’m throwing my two cents in. I think he’s had a rough week, but I think he’s shown potential. His guest interview have been very very entertaining, now if he can get some writers that know how to write a decent monologue instead of the dreck they give him now, he’ll be set. I think he’ll be fine in the long run. Conan was bad when he started out too.
i dont think knight rider was a bad idea i just think the made a huge mistake making gary scott thompson the showrunner. anyone that saw the cheese of las vegas shouldve known that style wouldnt work. plus i think they went to far away from the feel good stories of the original show. i think that would of worked much better from the start. more crime of the week style. its still not great but i do think the episodes after the retooling where better
and terminator fans like myself should be thankful the show lasted this long. really the only episode that ever got really good ratings was the pilot wich i believe premiered after a giants cowboys football game
but prison break never got great ratings but that lasted 4 years
Thanks, Robert. I thought everyone had gone to sleep. I really should be (I’m in NYC).
did anyone else catch the knight rider promos last night. i think they said it was the series finale. and tv guide is reporting it is done
i agree, chris. the episodes after the reboot were a lot better. but people still don’t know that there was a reboot, or that the episodes are better now.
oh, and NBC isn’t promoting the show. you must’ve seen it on E! canada. they advertised it as series finale, which takes on a different meaning up there.
yeah but tvguide is reporting it got cancelled. so i think its official
not “official” until NBC announces their fall line up.
Chris, TV Guide is reporting that “they hear from their sources…but nobody at the network commented or confirms”. That could be anonymous tip from someone reading our web site.
It doesn’t make the report wrong, but it’s not anything official. But again, sadly for KR fans the show is about as canceled as you can be without any official announcement. It’s now in the Lipstick Jungle phase — not on the schedule and not in production. Sooner or later, the actors will be getting other gigs, etc.
Andrea, go to bed.
even though robert i wish them luck i doubt anyone will be knocking those actors doors down to hire them. the bad news for them is passions isnt on anymore they all would have fit right in.
another thing that i think will really hurt terminators and knight riders efforts are the have those big deals with dodge and ford. how could those deals continue past this year. how could they justify sponsoring shows no one watches when they need taxpayer money just to stay afloat
ford refused bailout money.
i have the perfect solution for nbc. leno everynight at 10 olberman everynight at 9. maybe then he can finally beat nancy grace let alone oreilly
the bad news is we are gonna have to hear all weekend that the only reason terminator and dollhouse ratings went down again is because everyone went to see watchmen on friday. watch its gonna happen. the joss whedon kool aid drinkers if there good at anything its making excuses. if watchmen wasnt premiering it wouldve beat ghost whisperer.i can hear it now. remember the pilots ratings were bad because of friday the 13. poor joss first a serial killer now a band of rogue superheroes. poor joss if i was him i would just retire. obviously the whole world is involved in this lets screw joss whedon conspiracy. well at least we will have the 18,000 downloads on itunes to fall back on.
Spolier TV is reporting that sources say Knight Rider has been cancelled
There is also the rare exception of Friday Night Lights which NBC execs are in love with for some reason.
While I will watch TSCC to the bitter end, its been a real dissappointment and I wont be shedding a tear when it signs off. Its been a disjointed mess that seems unsure of which way to go – too much time travel and the spurt of “terminators of the week” really made a mess of things. TSCC has had some great moments, but as a whole, it just failed to really grab me. The original movie series at least made some sense where 1 humans and several terminators (some reprogrammed by the resistance) back in time at which point they blew up the time machine to prevent anyone else from mucking up the timeline. TSCC did it so many times the timeline would be a total mess. Time travel is best when used very sparingly.
Dollhouse? No interest in that one at all. Then again I thought Firefly was overrated and not worth of continuing either.
I’m sad for Life, but hey! It’s life.
OMG!
Why we’re sure Knight Rider and Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles will be cancelled.
Writing that kind of stuff isn’t smart.
What if the show(s) actually survie and recieves 3rd season?? What you gonna write then ??
I’ve been checking this site for some time and I clearly see it should be named “How to get angry TSCC fans”.
We know your opinion about the show, that it sucks, has low ratings etc but why writing this again and again and again??
I’ve seen 2 or 3 articles that you predict TSCC will be cancelled.They are all about the same thing.
C’mon guys!You can do better!
Bad Robot, NBC execs are in love with the subsidy for FNL from DirecTV, they’d drop the show in a NY minute without it.
HbmG_M, we never say a show “sucks”, it’s extremely rare that we comment on the content of a show at all. There are new ratings weekly, we write about them weekly. That the ratings are bad for some shows is simply a fact.
# Your show sucks
# You Suck!
One: The Show isn’t sucks. Sometimes boring, but not always! The show isn’t suck.
Two: I’m suck? Really? It’s question??? I’m not suck! Who suck? Simple questin: TV BY THE NUMBERS.
Why do do this? Okay, the show isn’t popular like Lost, I understad. But I always read in site: TSCC it’s piece of shit.
I’m TSCC fan, and I’ll be TSCC fan.
Tim, I think you misunderstood the entire point of the post.
HbmG_M
Why even try to explain: oh Bill’s already done it. God soooo many people think that this website is biased: but doesn’t Robert like TSCC (not completely sure) anyway i was harsh on Dirty Sexy Money’s ratings and I love that show: so talking about ratings and quality aren’t exactly the same. You just don’t like being reminded weekly; which I’m sure isn’t cool but they have to report it on its status: nothing more unless its a favourite of theirs but thats different.
Ratings & Quality only applies to Kath & Kim which is dirt and its head writer is a monkey.
Tim thats makes basically no sense at all
Holly, I don’t think Tim speaks English as a first language, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt here.
Tim, Robert was saying that saying ratings suck DOES NOT mean that your show sucks or you suck. But people seem to interpret it that way and get very defensive of reporting bad ratings as bad.
GREAT ARTICLE!
“the inability or unwillingness to differentiate between the following:
* Your show’s ratings suck
* Your show sucks
* You Suck!
If your show’s ratings suck, it quite often says absolutely nothing about the quality of your show, and it certainly doesn’t say anything about you. But some people react exactly as if it did, and at that point, unfortunately, they do actually start to suck.”
Love it!
People dont understand the financial end of the business.
Its not the networks that care about things like the 18-49 age demo, its the advertisers who pay the bills. And the networks care about how much advertisers are willing to spend.
And why things like low rates reality shows with 5-6 million viewers like Big Brother continue while dramas like Moonlight with around 8 million get the axe is reality shows cost far less to make. Shows like TSCC and Knight Rider are far more costly than hiring a bunch of goofs off the street to live in a house with cameras. Alot also depends on how much the actors demand. Sometimes they are just too pricey to afford.
As for DVR/alternative sources – revenues from them are still low and wont save a show. They may allow a slightly larger budget for successful shows but wont save poor performing ones. Fact is 90%_ of people still watch TV the old fashioned way – LIVE on TV with a bowl of popcorn or bowl of icecream.
These days with the network taking hits to the bottom line with advertisers skimping on ad buying, its going to be a tough time for any scripted show that doesnt get over 3.0 in the 18-49 age demo.
I think the failures of these hour-long serial dramas portends the end of that genre, at least for the time being. It’s very difficult for them to build audiences, and once people stop tuning in for whatever reason (a bad time slot, excessive delays between seasons or hiatuses, etc.), they don’t seem to come back.
Shows like NCIS are successful because they’re pretty light (everything is not the end of the world), entertaining, and they’re virtually all “bottle episodes.” I can not watch NCIS for 3 weeks in a row, catch an episode, and not feel lost at all.
As for TSCC, I’m a fan, but I’m going to be happy once it’s over. TSCC has declined noticeably in quality in Season 2, and even more noticeably in the latter half of Season 2. It’s time for that show to go. During WonderCon, someone asked Summer Glau what she thought about what happens to Cameron at the end of Season 2, and although she put on a happy face, she basically said she didn’t like what happens. Thomas Dekker came out and blasted the show’s ending, too. It’s really sad.
It’s been almost another full day now without another “TSCC will be canceled” story posted on this website. Why are you letting me down Robert Seidman, why?
I’ve replaced TSCC with Legend of the Seeker and will pick up Stargate Universe this Fall. I doubt the writers here give a crap if TSCC is axed anyway, because nothing helps a show more than declaring it canceled on the front page every day. Right?
So Legend of the Seeker isn’t a masterpiece, I don’t care really. It has action, and it progresses a story line, neither of which TSCC accomplished.
OK, I wont use again word “suck” cause I think I was misunderstood. English is not my native language.
My point is that no one right now can say definitely that TSCC is dead. Fox still has 6 episodes to run. Last 2-3 eps hmmm were not good, even Josh Friedman said why.AFAIK last 6 will be a lot better. This weeks news say that the TSCC is starting to fight. So lets wait to the end, look @ the ratings and then we can predict what is going to happen. Last word belongs to FOX, though.
HbmG_M, no offense taken. TSCC’s numbers right now are so far down into the “cancel me” range, that it would literally take a ratings miracle, as has never been seen before, to save it now. We seek to predict what will happen based on historical precedent, nothing else.
HbmG_M, TSCC was pretty much guaranteed cancellation based on its performance in the fall, and its recent ratings have only taken a skydive since then. There’s no way it can save itself. But, obviously, this post is merely an assessment of the numbers, and not actually canceling a show. Obviously. But it’s dead. Stop kidding yourself.
Thanks for answer Bill.I needed a balanced opinion, alhough as a dedicated fan I believe there’s gonna be a 3rd season.
I have a question. Does it matter that show was sold to many countries in the world ( where I live, during last sunday I was able to watch 8th episode of the 2nd season )when deciding to give a next season or not??
Maybe someone knows if it counts cause TSCC has fans all over the world!
I used to watch TSCC, but I stopped. Why? Because it SUCKED! Sometimes shows are simply bad and get cancelled. Like TSCC.
OTOH, sometimes shows get to last a lot longer than they deserve, like Battlestar Galactica. Not a great show, low in ratings, but survives because it’s on a network that lets low-raters live on.
And then, there are secondary markets, which is why According to Jim (a show I love, BTW), gets to continue on.
Lighthope
Pearls of Wisdom – Common sense isn’t.
HbmG_M, does being a dedicated fan now mean you have to delude yourself about reality?
Foreign markets may possibly help some shows that are on the bubble. But that is not the case here. Also, the studio is the one that makes money off of sales overseas, so unless Warners was making so much off of that that they were willing to drastically lower the price FOX gets the show for, there’s no possible way it could make any difference.
Lighthope –
Isn’t this last season of BSG just sad? I mean, literally, they’re just killing everyone off, the ship is “dying,” and the whole gambit of the show is just depressing. I understand the show was an allegory for George Bush and the Iraq war and now that Obama is president, the show no longer has a villain, so now they’re sort of adrift… But jeez.
Terrible direction. I sincerely hope Caprica is better.
Cie Le Vie. With shows I like being canceled I shall find comfort in……………….err…………Red Dwarf getting new episodes huzzah!
nice rebuttal, some people don’t get the difference between:
* Your show’s ratings suck
* Your show sucks
* You Suck!
@NYmets… does this look like MSN to you?
Like I said before if KR goes down then any other fantasy show outside of Lost and Ghost Whisperer should go down too.
Heroes isn’t even being watched anymore so why keep it around?
KR’s ratings are getting close to Chuck’s and KR made big improvements to its show so its no where near done. Just move it to Friday or Saturdays next mid-season. If you can keep Friday Night Lights or Lipstick Jungle you sure can keep this.
T:SCC is probably done but they’ve got some great actors on that show which can be used for pilots next spring.
I think Dollhouse should stay around since it had no bump from Idol to speak of.
Awaiting comment from Nick C.
KR: Dead. NBC canceled it. Universal has not (yet).
TSCC: Dying. FOX is going to air the remaining episodes. At least as of today that is what I hear. However if tonight is a 1.2 or 1.1, it’s not doing itself any favors. FOX won’t be renewing it. So its future is likely at SCI FI. I’d say chances of ending up at SCI FI are about 50/50 right now. Warner is going to offer it cheap from what I hear, so that makes it a real possibility vs a fan’s wet dream.
Thank you for explaining.
So TSCC still has hope? Sweet, Hope is my middle name after all.
(… No, really. It is.)
holy crap you all fight like 10 year olds IF A SHOW SUCKS DONT WATCH IT……YOUR VIEW WONT MATTER keep the stupid comments to yourselves and grown up
sam, you grown up. I don’t want to.
Nick C, you know i love you but for me, there’s absolutely no freaking way there’s a 50% chance for Terminator: TSCC winding up on SciFi. There’s zero historical precedent for anything like that ever happening (sci fi show with sucky ratings on broadcast, continuing with original episodes on SciFi). If TSCC had started out on Showtime/syndication and had five seasons under its belt as Stargate: SG1 did, I might buy it. But it didn’t, and I don’t.
While there may have been some incentives THIS year for WB to discount it heavily for FOX, I can’t imagine why it would be in WB’s interest to do that NEXT year.
I do expect we’ll see the reruns on SciFi though.
good greif, why does every post about anything get turned into a heroes-bashing fest? Grow up.
Anyone want to take some odds terminator will actually drop viewers again tonight and drop in its 18 to what not tonight? 10 bucks for starters.
Yeah I think TSCC ratings will drop again tonight. And Dollhouse is up against a special 20/20…
john: i’d say the same about knight rider.
We are still at this? Damn people, I used to LOVE TSCC and I accepted that this is the last season, why can’t you?
Knight Rider was a show that was never supposed to get anything more than that piece of crap TV movie… It’s a dumb concept and an even dumber show.
careful pix, this is not a thread to “bash shows” like seidman said.
the ratings for fox will definately go down tonight everyone will be at watchmen
The president of Fox Entertainment seems to be giving us some light of hope…….
THR: Can “Terminator” or “Dollhouse” financially make sense as broadcast shows next season if their ratings don’t improve?
Reilly: Advertisers have liked the shows. Both shows are doing well on a c7 basis. It’s too early to rule them out.
Taken from; http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3ic8f85937f15b71d12ab1acf7e3d694ca
uhh….. right. I bet
Ray, Dollhouse, maybe, TSCC, no.
It’s disappointing really. I had high hopes for TSCC. I enjoyed the movies very much. It’s a good premise with a strong female lead, an attracive teen boy, a cool, sexy cyborg and a menacing, unstoppable villian. How in the hell they managed to FUBAR it so badly I just do not understand.
Damn, Mel, when you put it like that, it looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking.
I am interested to see whether The Big Bang Theory gets any ratings bump, from Summer’s appearance on Monday, but unfortunately Monday will also be the first Monday of Daylight Saving Time and DST is not an 8pm shows’ friend…
Robert, I give you historical precedent:
SLIDERS.
I’m just passing on what I hear. I hear Warner is going to offer it up on the cheap, and SCI FI loves cheap. If they can pull BSG numbers they will be happy, which I think the show can likely do.
Nick, how could I forget Jerry O’Connell!! that’s a very good example in that it moved from Fox to SciFi. But wasn’t that show made by Universal (I don’t have any idea if Universal owned SciFi at that time) Sliders had quite a few more episodes under its belt when it moved so, but still, I sit historically precedent-ed.
I don’t really see how Warner could offer it that much cheaper and still be able to maintain the level of action necessary. Unless they’re going to make the whole season like these recent episodes.
Tonight’s episode was pretty good. It wasn’t all action but it brought Cameron back, and it felt quite tense throughout.
TSCC may go out with a bang, instead of fading away to nothingness.
“Especially for Terminator, most of the DVR viewing won’t matter because most of the people watching on DVR will skip the commercials”
Yeah, like everyone who watches it live doesn’t change the channel or mute it during commercials, like me. You’re a retard. Broadcast TV is changing and your holding onto your sinking ship of Nielsen data to measure financial success in the “internet age”.
LOL, Robert!
I used to love Sliders — it went to SciFi? Really? With new episodes? Huh. I never knew that.
Robert, yeah SLIDERS was a Universal production, but SCI FI was owned by Diller around that time. I shouldn’t bring up SLIDERS here… because it’s just a can of worms… but a little too late. SLIDERS is easily one of the most “successful,” shows brought back from cancellation by Fan protest. It not only got a 2nd season but a 3rd season. Then when FOX dropped it, it continued on for 2 more seasons on SCI FI.
Universal offered it cheap to SCI FI because they already had over 50 episodes in the series. Warner will have about 30 episodes for TSCC but I still hear they are going to shop it really cheap. I’d pick it up if I was SCI FI. It’s cheap, you’ll get decent SCI FI ratings and you can have Summer Glau in promo shoots.
Sounds good to me.
There’s no way that TSCC has a 50/50 chance ending up on Sci Fi.
Indeed, the suits there stated several times last year (when fans of Journeyman, Moonlight, Jericho, etc kept bombarding them) that they were no longer the savior of other networks cast offs.
The recent SCC episodes I have found quite boring, and I hate that because I can see so much potential. I guess we can only hope that the coming episodes pick up and the show manages to get money for a third spectacular season.
TSCC was much better last night (quality wise) so maybe the ratings will be up a little
John T Folden, what you say may be true. However every show you mentioned wasn’t the TERMINATOR brand. When approached about the possibility they said to pitch them. So Warner will when the dust settles.
It all comes down to profits. The shows you mentioned weren’t a known Brand, nor were they cheap. TSCC is cheap. It’s made like a cheap SCI FI show already.
Look at the major “cast off,” they took: STARGATE SG1. STARGATE was a Brand a known SCI FI Brand. It was cheap. It was profitable. They took it.
TSCC is cheap, it’s a bigger sci fi Brand than anything they have on the network. It would be profitable. In today’s market it is all about profits right?
Nick C. I agree it’s often about profits but I, also, think that Terminator as a TV series is a damaged brand. Cheap or not, if the series can only grab 3M on a major network like FOX what would it pull on SFC? 1M? I doubt the show is cheap enough to support re-run like ratings there. Obviously, that’s just a guess but thinking that the entire audience it has on FOX would simply move to SFC would be a grave mistake.
I, also, can’t see WB having any real reason to heavily discount the series after this season.
As far as the Stargate example, they picked that up well before they started talking about no longer picking up cast-offs.
But WB IS going to heavily discount the show, right? Isn’t that what Nick C said they’re planning on doing?
John T Folden, actually you’re dead wrong. You can find quotes from SCI FI about not picking up another networks series shortly after picking up SLIDERS. They obviously did pick up another networks left overs years later (2002) with STARGATE SG1. STARGATE had fallen greatly from its series highs in 99.
So there is nothing new about executives doing the exact opposite of what they say they will do. In fact it is common place.
SCI FI would look at TERMINATOR’s DVR numbers, its Monday Numbers, and Friday Numbers. The show looks to retain many of its Monday viewers but through DVR vs same day viewing.
Warner IS interested in continuing the show and offering it cheap. Why? Because they sell it to numerous locations both in the states and over seas. So the show is a profit to Warner, so they will continue it if they can. If that means selling it cheap to SCI FI they will.
SCI FI will be interested because it is likely to pull 1.5M viewers Same Day, which is a good number for SCI FI. Get a piece of production costs, DVD sales, and over seas sales and it is profitable for SCI FI.
You might not see a reason for Warner to heavily discount the season, but the idea that it was discounted to begin with for the upcoming movie was nothing more than rumor. The facts were it was discounted because it was profitable for Warner TV Studios. So they sold it cheap to FOX.
The show looks to retain many of its Monday viewers but through DVR vs same day viewing.
Not really. If you compare Monday Live+SD to Friday Live+7, yes, they are about the same. But comparing Live+7 to Live+7, the drop isn’t too far off from the Live+SD to Live+SD drop (5.07 to 3.71 Live+SD (-1.36), 5.85 to 4.76 (-1.09)). It gained less than 200,000 Live+7 DVR viewers in the move (1,359 to 1,521). Basically, it seems the same people who DVRed the show on Monday are still DVRing it on Friday.
Holly, HULU viewership has also gone up since the move. So who knows how many of those 5.07M viewers are still around watching the show in some way.
If I read your numbers right, the average for DVR only went up 27,000 viewers but lost 1.3M viewers. However that kind of matched with the percentage of homes with a DVR. So if the move to Friday made the show lose viewers just for being on Friday night, the argument could be made those viewers would still exist if on Mondays. Thus it would still be attractive to SCI FI.
I’m sure Warner has plenty of people who can spin this the way it needs to be spun for SCI FI.
Nick, You could make the argument that they would still be watching if it were still on Monday’s, but you CAN’T make the argument that they are still watching just via DVR (which seemed to be your original claim). Also, since SciFi’s major night of programming is Friday night (do they have original scripted shows any other night?), the Friday numbers are probably more useful to them.
Holly, no you had me right. I obviously didn’t think it through when posting/thinking it. That happens here, as I post quickly while trying to do other things. Obviously they can’t all be watching via DVR because they all don’t own DVRs. If DVR measurements are only in around 5% of all Nielsen households, then obviously the jump can’t be expected to be the same at all. I obviously wasn’t thinking.
Nick C, can you provide a link to the original SFC comment you are referencing in the time frame of Sliders? Thanks.
Also, to say that TSCC picks up many of it’s Monday viewers through DVR on Friday, ignores the DVR viewers it was picking op on Monday, doesn’t it?
As far as rumors and speculation about WB’s motives and budgets goes, the same applies to talk of SFC even thinking about picking up the show. There’s no confirmable basis for it right now.
Scratch that DVR question, I hadn’t refreshed to see the last few comments.
John T Folden, sorry but I’m not going to waste my time trying to find a quote for you. It was common knowledge at the time in the industry. I don’t lie or make things up.
Also it’s not a rumor. It was told to me by someone close to the situation. FOX is not going to be renewing TSCC. Warner wants to continue making TSCC. So they shop it around or syndicate it. SCI FI told them they’d be interested in a pitch. I don’t know that many people at SCI FI, my dealings are with the Broadcast Networks mostly. However, I was able to confirm it with one person at SCI FI. They would be interested at the right price. That was of course before TSCC even hit a 1.2 in the demo. They could be ready to slam the door in Warner’s face at this point.
39 mentions of the word “suck” (or some variant of it).
Now fifty! Woo!
Nick C.; Don’t be silly, of course it’s all rumor at this point. It’s just unverifiable chatter on a blog. If I’m wrong, point to it.
John T Folden, it’s not rumor to me. It’s verifiable to people in similar situations as me. It’s verifiable for real journalists with good sources. To tell someone that what they heard directly themselves was rumor has to be one of the stupidest things I’ve read on a blog lately, and that says a lot.
Nick C; Either you’ve intentionally misunderstood what I posted just to skirt the reality of the situation or you are unbelievably dense. I didn’t say you heard a rumor, I said your reporting here, YOU posting, is NOTHING but speculative gossip and unverifiable rumor. That’s exactly what it is – whether some of it ends up as true or not – that’s exactly what it is.
TSCC really had a lot of potential going into this season and they destroyed it with a long string of really horrible episodes at the beginning of the season.
TSCC could be potentially a decent pick up for SciFi but like anything it’s all about the bottom line. Frankly I’d like to see some more shows on SciFi.
John T Folden, well actually if it ends up true, it can’t be referred to as a rumor. Neither can verifiable information. Rumors are unverifiable by definition. So thus, you’re wrong. I’m not passing along anything that can’t be verified by someone with the resources.
Nick C.; twisting my words again? …much like you do your own comments from week to week. Until something ENDS UP confirmed (or verified), it is just a rumor. The majority of what you say, you can’t seem to back up. So it all falls into the realm of baseless speculation at best. It’s not the responsibility of the readers to verify, it’s up to the poster if they wish to be treated as any sort of trusted source or authority. So you are wrong. It’s all currently rumor you’re posting on this thread (and others).
John T Folden, actually it’s not. Since it’s verifiable, it can’t be rumor. I suggest a dictionary. No, it’s not verifiable by most users. It is verifiable by most media people in the business. So far no data I’ve provided has been proven false. Much of the data has been proven accurate later. I stand by my record to date.
Some people’s inability to comprehend what I’m saying has nothing to do with me “twisting,” anything. I don’t twist my past comments. I rarely change my stance. I have made some errors through haste on here, and that is about it.
Nick C, I’ll go one better and suggest the Real World(tm) for you. Hiding behind the whole “anyone with my contacts would know it” card is overplayed on the Internet. Everyone and their grandma has connections these days. LOL
I’ll stand behind my previous comment. Everything you post is rumor unless you can back it up. You aren’t a voice of authority, you’re a random commenter on someone else’s blog. Surely, you understand this.
I really enjoyed “Night Rider.” And I am very upset it is being cancelled. I also loved “Walker Texas Ranger!” I guess I don’t really understand when a show is a joy to watch, it gets cancelled.
The problem with the “Night Rider” show, is that I don’t think it was advertised enough before it aired. (If lack of interest was a reason for cancellation) I am going to miss the series. I myself, thought it was great. I looked forward to watching it every Wednesday evening on NBC.
I know this reply won’t matter a bit. But I am just voicing my opinion. I think it was a great show, and I will surely miss it.
Bruce
I CANT SEE THAT KNIGHTER IS GETTING CANNED THE WRITING IS BETTER THEN THE 80S SHOW AND THE GRAPHICS WERE BETTER I DONT SEE HOW THE SHOW IS DOING SO BAD?