With news last week of both CBS chief Les Moonves saying “CBS Only Has Room For 3 or 4 New Shows Next Season”. plus CBS Entertainment President Nina Tassler saying this about the Wednesday comedy block “We’ve improved the time period, so it’s something we’d like to stick with.” That puts my opinion that CBS would keep just one of The New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried in danger. I still think that Christine has the slight advantage, but now nothing that happens with those two shows would really surprise me. (that sound you hear is Robert getting ready to call the win in our bet on the CBS comedies).
Worst Week and The Unit are still goners, and Cold Case is not a cinch to return, but that should be the limit of the damages to existing CBS scripted shows. Because of reduced expectations, the Friday shows look good to return. I’m sticking with Eleventh Hour returning. If it gets canceled, I will await a visit by the retentionistas.
3/11 Update: It seems like CBS is doing a bit of public negotiating to knock down the prices on Cold Case and Without A Trace. Even if the story is true, I strongly doubt that both would be canceled at the end of this season.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EX LIST, THE | CBS | 2,443 | 3,850 | 0.63 | canceled |
| FLASHPOINT | CBS | 2,664 | 3,850 | 0.69 | |
| OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2,673 | 3,850 | 0.69 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 2,868 | 3,850 | 0.74 | |
| NUMB3RS | CBS | 2,934 | 3,850 | 0.76 | |
| UNIT, THE | CBS | 3,072 | 3,850 | 0.80 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER | CBS | 3,352 | 3,850 | 0.87 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,464 | 3,850 | 0.90 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,548 | 3,850 | 0.92 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 3,778 | 3,850 | 0.98 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 3,835 | 3,850 | 1.00 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 4,314 | 3,850 | 1.12 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,579 | 3,850 | 1.19 | |
| BIG BANG THEORY, THE | CBS | 4,615 | 3,850 | 1.20 | |
| MENTALIST, THE | CBS | 4,695 | 3,850 | 1.22 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 4,736 | 3,850 | 1.23 | |
| CRIMINAL MINDS | CBS | 4,754 | 3,850 | 1.23 | |
| HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER | CBS | 4,900 | 3,850 | 1.27 | |
| RULES OF ENGAGEMENT | CBS | 5,143 | 3,850 | 1.34 | |
| TWO AND A HALF MEN | CBS | 6,205 | 3,850 | 1.61 | |
| CSI | CBS | 6,449 | 3,850 | 1.68 |
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Notes:
Friday night – Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
The New Adventures of Old Christine: CBS has tried to create a second “comedy block” this season on Wednesday by moving Christine from Monday and slotting freshman Gary Unmarried. Both have been among CBS’s worst scripted performers, but will Christine be given the benefit of the doubt?
Worst Week got the best slot in CBS’s lineup for a new comedy, but has performed just below average for the net. Reports are that CBS expected much more in that prime timeslot and that Worst Week will not be coming back next season.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
I keep seeing this word “retentionistas” everywhere lately – I think I can guess, but may I ask what it means?
You used to be so indignant at even the mention of the possibility of Christine’s return! But it’s not a done deal yet.
We differ in outlooks primarily because you (and smartly, I think) mostly completely defer to the numbers until you’ve heard otherwise. I’m not a huge retentionist for shows coming out of Idol or DWTS or most any place really. But I will be more surprised if 11th Hour stays than if it goes.
CBS can and I believe WILL think it can do better in that time slot. As to the question of SHOULD it believe that? I think it probably should and last Thursday must have really left them thinking they can do better with it up only against a new ER and a repeat of Private Practice. I can’t imagine CBS isn’t gunning to do better than a 3.0 in that slot, especially up against only 1 original episode.
Heather, retentionista = slang for people who focus a lot on retention out of the show’s lead-in
Ahh, gotcha. Thanks, Robert!
robert i ALWAYS gave you hell when you said christine would not be back a few months ago ha
at this point i doubt anyone is wondering if Rules will return, but rather WHEN will it return. it’s obviously a huge improvement over worst week, and frankly i think it was flat out dumb that cbs let it finish its whole run in that slot. week had every chance to catch on before calendar year 09 rolled around, so i think it was a mistake to continue allowing such a weak half hour for two months, while at the same time letting Rules sit on the bench until march. if rules doesnt make the fall sched, it should be a january replacement next year.
i think cbs needs 4 shows:
Monday
8 pm The Big Bang Theory
8:30 pm How I Met Your Mother
9 pm Two and a Half Men
9:30 pm Rules Of Engagement
10 pm CSI: Miami
(Some flip-flops in the season between the 3 minors sitcoms)
Tuesday
8 pm NCIS
9 pm The Mentalist
10 pm Without a Trace or New Drama
Wednesday
8 pm New Drama (NCIS spin-off?)
9 pm Criminal Minds
10 pm CSI: NY
Thursday
8 pm Survivor
9 pm CSI
10 pm Without a Trace or a New Drama
Friday
8 pm Ghost Whisperer
9 pm New Drama (NCIS spin-off?)
10 pm Numbers
Saturday
8 pm The Bridge
9 pm Flashpoint
10 pm 48 Hours Mistery
(CBS could try the canadian drama on saturday nights)
Sunday
7 pm 60 minutes
8 pm Cold Case
9 pm New Drama
10 pm New Drama
In bigger changes in CBS lineup i bet
Friday
8 pm NCIS spin-off
9 pm Cold Case
10 pm Numbers
60 minutes could go to wednesday night or even ghost whisperer. and cbs could try to lunch a new entire lineup on sunday night. a litlle risky, but…
i think sundays will see the most change for cbs fall. probly 2 of the 4 hours will be different.
I give Moonlight a better chance at being resurrected from the dead than 60 Minutes ever moving out of its time slot.
Paul I think your ideas of the Canadian dramas on Saturday is interesting. (I’m assuming the Bridge is another canadian show, haven’t heard of it, correct me if I’m wrong) After all, CBS is getting them for pretty cheap. While Flashpoint isn’t a breakaway hit on Fridays or anything, I think it’s been a modest success. If it and the Bridge were on Saturday, it likely would have NO competition at all, not even crappy reality shows.
It’s an interesting idea, but I don’t see it likely to happen.
I think they will stick with Old Christine, and probably put her on at 8:30 on Wednesday with maybe Rules of Engagement as the lead-in. One of them may be a midseason or half-season order, to make room for new shows they are introducing, but I think they are definitely going to keep the Monday 9:30 slot open for a new show to debut.
I hope they keep Old Christine and Rules around. At this point, Gary Unmarried, which I once really liked, feels like an odd man out. I’d much rather see Old Christine or Rules stay around over Gary.
Like that TV Week article said, Old Christine, which will probably get picked up, will be extremely close to syndication….
With CBS keeping the Wednesday comedy block, I wouldn’t be surprised if Rules, Christine, and Gary all got renewed (one or two as 13 episode or mid-term).
For dramas, I still think it’s a bit of a toss-up between 11th Hour, Cold Case, and Without a Trace. There are arguments for keeping each one, but at least one has to go.
The Unit is gone, which is a bit unfortunate because I think it is one of CBS’ better shows and it’s something different for the network. It just can’t get the numbers to justify renewal.
CBS is so successful that it disadvantages shows like The Unit or Cold Case. If either of those shows were on Fox or NBC for sure they would certainly be coming back because they’d be two heavy hitters for either network.
I honestly think they should make all of these shows in question midseason replacements next year, even if with only a thirteen episode order. At the very least they know what they have with these programs — solid if not glorious ratings. And it’s a safe bet for their lineup and they don’t have to gamble on potentially lesser shows that they’ll be making room for.
That’d be my call if I were a network executive ….. someday.
You’re right in that CBS has to cancel shows with OK ratings because they don’t have any failing series. That is unfortunate for those shows, but refusing to cancel anything isn’t the way go. I can see them giving one show (and at least one of the comedies) a mid-season order, but if they do more than that, they’ll just end up having to cancel it before it airs anyway. With only 2-3 new dramas, the chances that they’ll need more than one mid-season drama is slim.
holly, it would be interesting if rules, christine, and gary ALL got renewals, but i would guess the chances are less than 50/50. rules is the only sure thing at this point in my opinion. yeah i think the unit is definately gone too.
Jocor, The Unit and Cold Case would be “heavy hitters” on FOX or NBC in viewers, but not in demos. They would both probably survive on NBC, though The Unit just barely, but The Unit would be gone on FOX and Cold Case would still be below the season average.
the128boy, I’m not sure I’d say it is likely, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they did.
as a sitcom fan, i would love to see sitcoms make a big return on all the nets. but not simply in number, the quality i really miss too.
Its more likely the established comedies Christine and Rules get renewed rather than Gary. Also Its more likely for Cold Case to return than Eleventh Hour. Hour got the disadvantage of only getting 18 episodes and ending early on April 2. Also Hour’s retention rate out of CSI is nothing that good even though its only competing with Private Practice and ER, and Practice has a better retention rate out of Grey’s than Hour does out of CSI despite Grey’s being slightly lower rated. That is something to think about. I still say:
Definitely Gone: The Unit & Worst Week
On the Bubble but likely to Survive: Without a Trace, Cold Case, Old Christine, Rules of Engagement
On the Bubble but likely to be axed: Eleventh Hour & Gary Unmarried
Drama wise CBS only has so much room so they may want to keep 9:00 fridays, 10:00 thursdays, and 10:00 sundays open to new shows. I believe the comedy block will be continued just because CBS doesn’t want to give it up, however it’s likely the newcomer Gary will be dropped and Old Christine will be paired with Rules on wednesday similiar to 2004-2005 where Listen Up was axed and veterans Still Standing and Yes, Dear were paired on wednesday nights.
Please Comment
I also would like to say because Flashpoint is a cheap canadian import, CBS will keep it. Maybe for midseason, maybe for summer, maybe for Saturdays. The point is it does well enough where CBS isn’t in a position to get rid of it.
Assuming it stays over a 2.0 in the demo, I think Flashpoint is a lock for renewal. If they only have 13 episodes, they may use The Bridge (another Canadian show) as the other half of the season.
Holly, I was wondering how low Flashpoint could go and still be renewed, looks like it has hope, thanks! Do you think there’s any chance CBS will experiment with timeslot, swapping Flashpoint with Numbers? I doubt they would. But it’s curious that the 9 p.m. show gets less viewers and lower demos than both the 8 and 10 p.m. shows surrounding it.
I also think it’s a toss-up between WAT and Cold Case. A guess: one of those two will be canceled, and the other will air Tuesdays at 10pm (unless a real heavy-hitter takes that slot, like a CSI). Not sure on Eleventh Hour.
I Have one question: “Why Cold Case is one bubble show?” last sunday was stronger… i don’t believe is dangerous … i love the show!
Please keep The Unit! There are other shows indexing worse
Jim, Yes, Flashpoint and Numb3rs are lower on the index, but they are both on Friday, which has lower expectations (and Flashpoint is really cheap, which lowers the threshold even more). The other two lower than The Unit are the Wednesday comedies, which are another special case because CBS really wants to keep that second comedy block and try to expand their comedy presence.
Without a Trace and Cold Case officially in trouble
http://ausiellofiles.ew.com/2009/03/exclusive-witho.html
Oy. There are so many reasons I’m not a fan of Ausiello, but trying to incite fans to the usual craziness just topped my list.
Good find Holly. I will incorporate it into the post, but it sounds to me like public negotiating by CBS. If Moonves was right about the 3-4 open slots next fall, there is no way both of those shows get cut.
OK, so the incitement to riot isn’t good, but if he’s right, the info is still relevant.
I don’t know, Bill. It wouldn’t shock me if they cut three dramas (The Unit, Cold Case, WAT) and one comedy (Worst Week), especially since they claim to like the Wednesday comedy block. I know everyone is going on about Eleventh Hour, but I just don’t see that it’s in as much danger as the others.
Julia, that’s a logical outcome as well. It will be interesting to see what happens.
In a TVbytheNumbers exclusive my inside sources (Bill) tell me that any show that hasn’t been officially renewed or canceled yet could still be officially renewed or canceled. EGADS! We can’t have THAT, can we! Stop the madness! Let the networks know what you think!
Thanks again for “The Big Bang Theory”. Our power went out Monday 5 Minutes into the show and we just sat there staring into the darkness for another 20 minutes like clones hoping it would return. We really need our monday night BBT fix.
We, our sons and daughter and their families, and several of our friends all consider this easily the best program on TV.
Which studio makes the shows??
^ i mean which studio makes Cold Case and Without A Trace?
Both are joint efforts of Warner Brothers, Bruckheimer, and CBS
11th Hour should be cancelled. It’s numbers are terrible for the post-CSI timeslot. Most CBS shows seem to get better numbers.
CBS is so hard to figure out for next season. Rules of Engagement looks a lot better on this list than it does in an actual ratings report. It failed to even break 10 million viewers last week, and its demo was similar to that of BBT and HIMYM. Hearing that, it’s an improvement over Worst Week, but how much of an improvement? Yet on this list, it looks like a godsend. Kind of misleading . . .
Old Christine’s chances of renewal are looking brighter every day, while Gary Unmarried’s future is looking bleaker every week. I would mind seeing a ROE/Old Christine pairup on Wednesdays. And even that way, CBS would finally be able to pick out the stronger show of the 2. It almost sounds like a plan. Yet, I’m sick of seeing the 9:30 Monday slot going to new shows. It doesn’t work – just look at Worst Week.
What CBS should do is premiere a new comedy with the season premiere of Men next fall, then move it to a different timeslot the next week, and move ROE/Old Christine back into Mondays. It would give the show a nice launch while allowing it to fend for itself.
I agree Julie…
I think Old Christine and Rules would make a nice pair on Wednesdays or sharing the Monday 9:30 slot.
What would be interesting is seeing how Rules would do at Wednesday at 8 with a new show premiering at 8:30. I’m curious if it would be better than Old Christine / Gary Unmarried this year.
I’d like to see Old Christine return to Mondays, but as long as it gets renewed, I don’t really care where they put it… as long as it isn’t up against American Idol or Dancing With The Star!
Dave I think that too. CBS can put Old Christine and Rules on Wednesday, and have Theory, Mother, Men, and a new show on mondays to round out comedy. Unfortunately both Gary and Worst Week would have to be axed. The current monday night is working out now so CBS may want to keep 8-9:30 and then put something new at 9:30. Also if CBS wants to keep the wednesday comedy block, they may want to put 2 established shows their like Rules, in Christine which will be in their fourth and fifth seasons at the time. I actually didn’t know that Cold Case & Without a Trace were in such bad shape. WAT is doing decently for airing at CBS’s tuesdays 10pm death slot and Cold Case is doing not that bad for Sunday at 9. Its unlikely both will be axed but its possible that WAT might. This is similiar to CBS’s Joan of Arcadia/Judging Amy situation in May 2005. In that case, both series ending up being axed. Case or Trace?
There was an article today that indicated that Cold Case and Without a Trace were indeed at “death’s door”. I am not sure if this is true but I believe the article said that CBS was shutting down production.
I hope they do not cancel Eleventh Hour. I understand everyone’s retention pitch but the show has a lot of originality and some wonderful performances.
I am sorry to see Cold Case go if it is true. I really liked the show.
I agree with you Connie. I hope they keep EH. It has good performances and great chemistry. If it’s renewed, it’ll be interesting how they manage Marley Shelton’s pregnancy. X-files flashbacks, anyone? Just kidding. I love the X-files.
Yay for TBBT!