Neither Bill or I is a big believer in DVR increases mattering much to a show’s prospects, but we are numbers junkies and know there is some demand. Bill has the regular post that focuses on the top 20 most DVRd shows, and the top 20 shows with the largest % viewing by DVR here.
Here, I’m posting the improvements to 18-49 ratings points over the Live+SD ratings points. Again, these are ratings points out to hundredths, and NOT millions of viewers. These are for the 2/27 airings of Dollhouse and Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles and the 2/23 airing of Chuck:
| Show | Live+SD 18-49 Rating | Live+7 18-49 Rating | %increase |
| Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles | 1.21 | 1.71 | 41.3% |
| Dollhouse | 1.61 | 2.19 | 36.0% |
| Chuck | 2.30 | 2.75 | 19.6% |
I know a lot of people go whoooo-hoo, 41%!! But this is why I am a bigger believer in absolute increases in most cases than percentage increases. I have ranked this list, by % increase, but that’s not particularlyly meaningful. Are TSCC’s prospects better than the prospects for Dollhouse or Chuck?
Yeah, I agree they’re pretty meaningless, but, hey, they look pretty good any way.
in a word? no. i dont think tscc’s prospects are any better. in fact, it’s interesting to see that even though tscc has a higher % increase than dollhouse, it still cant beat dollhouse’s final. the same is true in relation to dollhouse and chuck: the increase still leaves it short of chuck’s total numbers. i think this can largely be attributed to the fact that a large percent of a tiny number, is still gonna be pretty small. and if those viewers are less valuable to begin with, it’s not terribly important.
robert, since 18-49 data is more important than total viewership data, what is the chance of you guys ever adding an “top 20 18-49 dvr increase” list in the future? i’m sure it would be a big hit.
for now I’d say slim — there’s not nearly as much interest in DVR viewing as we less than 30% of the US with DVRs think there should be
yea a revised top 20 +7 chart would be interesting comparing.
@Robert: Well, if the advertisers are happy, which Reilly said they were…
Also, don’t forget that comment by the FOX VP, saying that it’s a proven fact that people who FF through adverts pay more attention than those who watch them at normal speed. Maybe there is some value to DVR after all. We’ll see.
lol well i am in the more than 70% (although i WISH i had one), i’m just a numbers geek that thinks there should be more interest!
I think that comment about DVR viewers getting more out of FFwd’d commercials is a bunch of horse pucky. If that were true, advertisers could shoot 15 second commercials just showing their product (with no sound) and save a whole bunch of money.
Veran, a network exec is not going to say “Our advertisers hate our shows and are very disappointed with our numbers!” Stop living in a dream world.
@Julia: So… by being optimistic about a show I love, I automatically live in a dream world? God, you’re such a misery. Would you rather have me piss and moan on every article about how TSCC is doomed and that it’s everyone’s fault and blah blah blah?
FOX will always have a show that is less successful than its others, so why not keep that least successful show a good one?
Veran, please stop.
Why don’t you just admit TSCC is dead and enjoy the rest of the episodes hoping for an awesome final?
No matter what you say, think or do, it is dead. I am sorry, but hope in an hopeless case is not a good think. You’re just gonna be let down in the end. Accept, enjoy the rest and move on.
Ricardo
You may say that it is not succesfull in nielsen ratings and its future is not bright but you can not ask anyone to admit that it is dead, until it is officially dead, where that decision will be taken by Fox and WB but not by you…
Anyway there is one thing that you are right: the remaining four episodes seems to be very good. I suggest you to not miss those episodes: Friday 8 pm on Fox.
hagi
Maybe you’re right about that point. It has 99% of probability of dying, but it’s not dead… yet.
Still, it’s better to admit it’s dead and then have a good surprise, than hoping it’s alive and then it’s dead.
And only a miracle will save it. A big one.
The problem with the last four episodes is that two of them focus on character exploration for “Jesse” – who is not a character anybody cares about.
The whole “submarine” back story is a waste of time with only four episodes left to even think of saving the show’s numbers.
But the writers think submarine movies are “cool” – which is one reason the show tanked.
@Richard Steven Hack:
Jesse’s backstory ties in a whole lot of threads of future and current events and is by no means disconnected from the overall story arc – which you would know if you watched the show with half a brain… sigh
I’m very disappointed with how the writers of TSCC are handling the last episodes of the season. The episodes haven’t been bad, even the Sarah Connor “trilogy” was enjoyable I think, but if your show’s ratings suck and there is a more than huge chance it will be cancelled, use the last nine episodes to tie up as much of the story as possible and make them EPIC.
Now us fans are probably going to get a Season 2 DVD with slow moving final episodes and major cliffhanger with more than a few story arcs that need tying up. Very upsetting.
JustSomeFan, no, Jesse’s back story goes nowhere.
An over-reliance on events in the future controlling events in the past is one of the weaknesses of the TSCC concept. Josh abused time travel in this show – and he’s admitted as such – even though he says he hates time travel stories, he’s admitted he’s the one who sticks that stuff in.
And that’s always a mistake. Time travel in SF should only be used to set up the situation in the present, and the rest of the story takes place in the present. Which is what T-1, T-2 and T-3 did. Otherwise you end up in the “rabbit hole”, as the TSCC writers call it – and they repeatedly did so in season 2.
Jesse’s back story is irrelevant. Having present John fighting a faction that wants him out in present time while Skynet continues to grow and develop is just a diversion from the main Terminator concept. It’s going to be confusing for the viewers and does absolutely nothing but slow the pace of main story development, which, again, is stopping Skynet from existing in the first place.
I moaned about this all season. The Connors had a firm mission to stop Skynet in season one. In season 2, they utterly abandoned that mission to do a lot of irrelevant side missions about “saving Skynet targets”. The internal logic of the concept is that if you stop Skynet from ever existing, you stop Judgment Day, you stop the war, you stop Terminators coming back to kill John or anybody else. That is Job ONE! Yet the Connors completely abandoned that in season 2.
And that means the characters end up looking like idiots, instead of “heroes”. Who wants to watch idiots in their favorite sci-fi action show? This is why the show bled viewers.
And now in the next to the last episode of the series, they’re STILL doing that! The description for the episode says when John tries to save another target of Skynet, he closes in on Weaver. He could have done that fifteen episodes ago!
Do these people never learn? Do the writers?
As I’ve said all season, if the Connors are the “saviors of mankind”, it’s time to send in the first string!
You and my grandma are the only ones I know of that still watch shows live. Even if I am home, I wait 15 minutes in to start watching will it records so I can skip the commercials. The stuff I do watch live, like football, I simply mute or change the channel like during the commercials like the rest of America. In fact, the only time a watch a commercial is if it is a movie preview, so i know the which good movies I should torrent.
Sycore, you should expand your group of friends (or at least your knowledge of the DVR market). 70% of the US public does not yet have DVRs.
Enough of this talk about Low-rated shows! pls!
“Sycore, you should expand your group of friends (or at least your knowledge of the DVR market). 70% of the US public does not yet have DVRs.”
Last I checked, VCR/DVD recordable penetration was over 90%. Most people know how to use them to time-shift and fast froward through the commercials, but yours is probably still blinking “12:00″
Sycore, if you have any actual figures on how many people use VCR/DVD to time shift, I’d love to see it. I’d guess it’s much closer to 3% than 90%.
Sycore, few people use VCRs to timeshift. Nielsen tracks VCR recording, and it contributes a nearly insignificant portion to viewing. We don’t see the data regularly, but here is one look.
Of course, it’s much easier for you to make up numbers to back up your arguments. If that makes you happy in your own little echo chamber, go for it.
As for me, I had a DVR before you were born.
“Sycore, if you have any actual figures on how many people use VCR/DVD to time shift, I’d love to see it. I’d guess it’s much closer to 3% than 90%.”
Sure, I use hard data to support my facts, not skewed sample statistics like Nielsen. Add DVD recorders and hard drive dvr to the mix, you have most of America capable of time-shifting and skipping commercials.
http://www.mediainfocenter.org/television/size/cable_vcr.asp
Face it, Broadcast TV has changed and so has advertising. There is much better data at what America is really watching and much better ways for advertisers to spend there money than using Nielsen as a guide.
Sycore, Ownership of VCRs /= Timeshifting with VCRs.
Keep trying, someday you might make a real point.
Bill Gorman, why did you attack Sycore from the beginning? He said he can’t believe people watch things live anymore and you tell he should expand his group of friends or at least his knowledge of the DVR market.
You’re very rude and condescending. I think YOU need expand your group of friends, if you have any. And guess what? There’s always someone out there with more knowledge than you about something in particular. Hopefully, they won’t talk to you the way you talk to people here while hiding behind your computer monitor.
NOW that I got that off my chest (lol)… I’m a fan of the Terminator films and I liked the first season of TSCC but this season has been brutal. There were some good episodes here and there, like last week’s, but if the show is cancelled, the writers are to blame.
David in NJ, there are countless people with more knowledge about the television industry than I. Sycore is not one of them.
One of our objectives in running this site is to educate people on the numbers of television, what they mean and how they work. Sycore’s statements were simply wrong, and so as not to spread that confusion among our readers, they needed to be corrected. As for rude and condescending, I think the tone of the exchange was set by Sycore prior to any comments you may have read. I do not suffer know it all’s who are wrong gladly.
As I said on another board. T:TSCC has fairly agressive embedded marketing (product placement). Doesn’t matter if the episodes are seen live or illegally off the internet for those advertisers their products are still being advertised. I’d really like to see these numbers more frequently. I actually think these numbers should be shown as a matter of course (go back to the overnight data and update with the live +7).
Can you consider adding Live+7 updates as a regular occurence?