Last week’s fast affiliate overnight numbers for Dollhouse showed an uptick in its 18-49 Live+SD demo rating from the prior week. Was it the start of a comeback, or just a one week blip? The difference could spell either renewal or cancelation. Note that the Dollhouse Renew/Cancel Index still fell from 0.64 to 0.63 this week. While its results improved from week to week, they were still below its average for all airings.
Not much left to say about Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles except “Enjoy the last 4 episodes.”
Note that we have a new color category in the lists this week, Renewal Announced.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES (FRI) | FOX | 1,617 | 3,530 | 0.46 | |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,530 | 0.59 | cancelled |
| DOLLHOUSE | FOX | 2,224 | 3,530 | 0.63 | |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,530 | 0.67 | renewed |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 2,988 | 3,530 | 0.85 | final season |
| AMERICAN DAD | FOX | 3,599 | 3,530 | 1.02 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 3,733 | 3,530 | 1.06 | final season |
| BONES | FOX | 4,015 | 3,530 | 1.14 | |
| SIMPSONS | FOX | 4,167 | 3,530 | 1.18 | renewed |
| FAMILY GUY | FOX | 4,573 | 3,530 | 1.30 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 4,586 | 3,530 | 1.30 | |
| 24 | FOX | 5,060 | 3,530 | 1.43 | |
| LIE TO ME | FOX | 5,569 | 3,530 | 1.58 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,223 | 3,530 | 1.76 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. Note that the Fox average used above is its final Season to Date average prior to American Idol (see below).
Notes:
Prison Break is in its final season.
‘Til Death has done terribly, and has been off Fox’s schedule since October, Sony Pictures has reportedly made Fox such a sweet deal for future episodes that Fox has bought another entire season, proving that at a low enough price that even a ratings black hole is worth suffering through.
Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles: The numbers above are for only its Friday airings that began on February 13, 2009. FYI, It’s 13 episode 18-49 average on Monday this season was 2.726 million.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
i can’t imagine fox renewing dollhouse… why not bring back 5th grader/lyrics? they must be a ton cheaper for roughly the same results.
And once again the Sarah Connor Society is touting the DVR numbers as evidence TSCC has live left in it.
Quote:
“So what does this mean? Well Chuck and Dollhouse had smaller percentages but their overall numbers were higher. TSCC started though w/ lower initial ratings than these shows which is why the percentage jumped up massively. The most important part of this is that the demographics got increased, so long as the series continues to show that the right amount of 18-49 demos are watching, it could still have life on the network. Again, we don’t know the numbers of iTunes/Amazon downloads, or the numbers of hits on FoxonDemand and Hulu.
Regardless – I’m expecting next week’s numbers for OURSELVES ALONE to be staggeringly huge as further proof that TSCC fans didn’t abandon their show, they just went to go see WATCHMEN in theaters on opening night.”
I don’t know where they get the idea that a 1.6 is the “right amount” of 18-49 viewers!
Worse, this is the description of episode 21 – the next to last episode of the series!
“When John attempts to rescue Skynet’s latest target he finds himself closing in on Weaver.”
He could have “closed in on Weaver” FIFTEEN EPISODES AGO! All they had to do was follow up on the nuclear power plant incident, find out that Automite was going to automate it, and find out that Weaver owns Automite. Trivial. Of course that would have meant no long term development of “The Turk” and all of the nonsense of Ellison trying to teach Skynet religion…
And worse, last week’s and this week’s episodes contain more screen time for Jesse than even Sarah! This is a character that does not need “development”. Nobody cares why she’s doing what she’s doing – everybody just wants her dead. Derek needs to put a bullet in her and move on.
But the writers on the official blog are talking about how submarine movies are “cool”. This is one reason the show went off the rails – writing “cool” episodes instead of paying attention to the story arc and the requirements of the franchise.
I warned about this back when “Goodbye to All That” aired, as the entire crew spent more time oggling the “.45 longslide” Arnold carried in T-1 which appeared in that episode than they did covering plot holes.
“Cool” is okay in moderation. Too much “cool” and your show gets canceled because nobody cares about it but you and two other hardcore fans.
128 I agree with Bill on Dollhouse – it can still go either way right now I’m leaning more toward renewal than the axe but that’s just me.
RSH, Sarah Connor Society folks are drinking the kool-aid. Not to call them out as the only imbibers, but they are chugging it.
Dollhouse has a few advantages TSCC doesn’t. It’s a limited run (13 eps) so Fox giving it a partial renew – as a midseason replacement next year, or as a 13 ep second season, aren’t out of the question. Fox also still hold a commit or pay deal with Dushku, a high six figure deal for film/tv. Renew even for half a season, and you keep the film/tv deal in place, if not, they still have to commit her another vehicle or buy her out. Fox may look at it like “eh, if it does OK and could improve, we’re better off trying then cutting bait”.
I think TSCC is gone. No one on that show has any leverage anywhere, no agreements in place, ratings suck, so what do they have to get over? If Dollhouse ratings were in the toilet, it’d be worth it, but as it is, it may be a wash.. if it ticks up some, a worthwhile gamble. But TSCC? Nothing at all in it for Fox. No way they stick with it. Hell, Dollhouse is waiting for the much better ratings lead in of “Prison Break” which even in it’s last year is pulling in damn near double the numbers of TSCC.
Chris, buying out of a six figure deal is not that big a deal. Less than the cost of one episode of Dollhouse, no matter how high six figures.
It’s about the cost of an ep. Still, if it’s on the fence, like I said, pocket the money and commit as a midseason replacement. If it stays at about this level for the rest of the year, then it’s got a fair chance at that as a first season show with one of the worst lead-ins on network TV on a Friday (Sorry TSCC fans, but it IS the worst lead in on TV)
128boy, it is 500,000 viewers better in the 18-49 demo than 5TH GRADER and over 300,000 viewers better than LYRICS. So it makes more money (even with the shorter commercial breaks). It also will make DVD money which those shows will not.
It’s more profitable for FOX. Will they keep it?
Pete is leaning to “No.” So if I was to guess today, that answer would be “No.” However it could trend back up. If it does I’ll have to gauge Pete some more. I’d guess “No,” will be the answer.
The great news is Pete seems convinced that Friday should have good TV on it, and that it can make money. So he may be willing to gamble.
It getting a short mid season pickup is also possible. 13 weeks of the year, airing new DOLLHOUSE episodes likely couldn’t hurt. It’s profitable.
Bill, there isn’t a lot of interest in realism over at SCS. I got banned from there because they didn’t like my attitude (they’re serious “Board Nazis” over there as far as moderation rules – go “off topic” for one sentence, they’re editing your posts!). The folks at the official Wiki hate me, too, so I decided it was a waste of time to post there.
As for Eliza’s deals, while some people are claiming she can’t act, and I think a couple times on Dollhouse she’s hit some false notes, basically I find her believable. Where that applies is I think Fox could easily find something else for her if Dollhouse goes down. However, she is one of the producers and of course the whole thing was to work with Joss again, so it’s up to her if she wants to just take a buyout and forget about it or wants to negotiate another deal for other work at Fox. I could see Fox telling her “Dollhouse isn’t working, but we’ll put you somewhere else” and she would go along, if unhappy about another Joss (and her) failure.
Chris, it’s not fair to compare Prison Break’s numbers to TSCC’s. Prison Break hasn’t been on Fridays yet. That being said,TSCC’s numbers suck.
I don’t see this coming week helping the trend any for Dollhouse. From a scheduling point of view, Dollhouse is something of a Schleprock. Fridays, launched on a Friday the 13th competing with a Friday the 13th movie and early Valentines, later competing with Watchmen.
Finally, the heralded “THIS is the episode that showcases what Dollhouse is all about!!!” episode arrives and it’s up against the BSG finale and NCAA B-Ball.
Nick c., 500k more viewers in the demo vs. 5th grader isn’t a fair comparison, because dollhouse airs in a higher HUT hour. As for the 300k more than Lyrics (and even if the 500k was an appropriate comparison), how much cheaper do you think those shows are than dollhouse or tscc?
Chris when you say prison break has double numbers compared to TSCC, I think you have compared friday numbers of TSCC with monday numbers of PB, which is unfair because we do not know what PB will do in fridays (i hope better but.. ). I think you must compare monday numbers of both shows, which are nearly the same, in a night where there is a bigger competition. and those numbers are bigger than a renewed show of fox: till something.. i do not remember..
I think Pb will get similar numbers as dollhouse on Fridays, since Friday viewers only watch a show where Jennifer talks with dead people in every episode… If fox wants to get better numbers, i think they must be patient on their shows (at least for DH) to change the habit of the viewers..
Robert, I think a better and broader rule would be: Show me a week where there is NOTHING going on in the nation that could potentially detract viewers from X show. The truth is that all shows face competition from a wealth of places EVERY SINGLE WEEK. Trying to blame a shows weak performance on something like that is just grasping at straws, and following what-if scenarios.
the128boy, I agree in general. When people say “Chuck” or “Life” are getting screwed because of their time slots, I’m not a big believer in that thinking.
And I don’t think Dollhouse was screwed by its time slot, as many have noted, if it had launched Mondays at 8pm, it might already be off the air. But the way it worked out, the much heralded (we’ll see if there’s any there, there) 6th episode rolls around vs. BSG finale and NCAA B-Ball. FOX has tried to pitch Friday nights to young men who are stuck at home.
The promotional pitches I heard for Dollhouse on sports radio were along the lines of “Beautiful women programmed to do whatever they’re told!” I think the B-Ball will hurt more than BSG, we’ll see. But I think there may well be nearly a million people who watch Dollhouse to kill time before BSG comes on. Some of those people won’t be watching Dollhouse this week. Was not finger pointing to the time slot, just more of a commentary on the Schleprock nature Dollhouse seems to have. I
Re: PB vs TSCC on Mondays, PB had 9% more viewers in the demo.
TSCC: 2,726
PB: 2,988
Renew/Cancel index from week before TSCC moved to Friday
I tend to agree with the128boy on that. Shows are supposed to survive no matter what they’re up against. Some do, some don’t. I think the most relevant comparison is in the show’s quality, not external events or even time moves (although I think hiatuses should be taken into account).
I think you can use external events to explain a given week relative to some other nearby week, to a point, but not for the overall performance of a season.
^^ completely agree
Thanks Julia. If the 9% difference between TSCC and PB on Mondays survives on Fridays, then PB will get similar numbers as DH. We will see. I hope in its last season PB gets more higher numbers which also helps DH to get higher numbers..
Hagi, unfortunately, that may just be attributable to the higher HUT levels at 9pm. I’m not sure PB will hold up any better than TSCC.
Just to add a caveat to my post, yeah, if a network moves a show’s time slot several times in a season, and takes it off the air every couple of weeks for sports or whatever, then clearly the show is going to be affected by that.
People do need to form a habit of seeing a show which is hard if the show itself has no “habit.”
Richard if you
you mean TSCC then, apart from me , there are 3 500 000-4 000 000 people which are not agree with you…
I accept the above as pretty good info. Thanks to all. I guess the way I looked at it was the nature of the agreement with Dushku was mostly if you sack Dollhouse, you have to find her another vehicle. I figure it that Fox would love to have her under a first option agreement which they do now, a kind of sweetheart deal if they want to put her in a film or whatever, if for nothing else eyecandy. Coming up with a new program with her is just as chancy/risky as just leaving be with a short order (IMHO). But yes, if you look at it the other way, buying her out is like 1 ep.
*shrug* I think it does need to trend up, but I’d put it on the ventilator. I’ll stay optimistic for a renew.
Nick C, the previous weeks you seemed more optimistic about Dollhouse’s future. Does New Pete mean bad news after all? Or do you just think that Dollhouse can’t improve its performance any more?
And if Pete is in favor of good TV on Fridays (so no repeats/reality?), is there really any way that could be done without using a returning series? Yanking every show after half a season and trying another one didn’t do FOX much good in the last 15 years.
I would guess that the current ratings have to be held and improved a little bit for FOX to keep it next season – if they don’t abandon Fridays again.
Hagi, I was speaking generally in my last post, not about TSCC specifically. TSCC had a “habit” on Mondays, except for some two week postponements in the fall which I don’t think hurt it at all. The two month hiatus didn’t help coupled with the move to Fridays, but again Fridays was expected to be bad anyway.
The problem is it continued to bleed numbers on Fridays until last week. I can easily see it trending upward in the last four episodes – but not enough to make a difference.
The number of people who agree is less than the number of people who need to agree. Get the 3.5-4.0 million up to five or six and get a 2.5-3.0 in the demo and Fox might listen. That’s not going to happen in the next four episodes, I can pretty much guarantee.
As TVBTN says in another post, by end of season the fates are cast – both in the viewers minds and the suits. I have a question in on another thread as to whether anybody has ever seen a show revitalized in the last four episodes of a 22-episode season. I doubt it’s ever happened, but I could be wrong.
@Richard Steven Hack: You never know what FOX might decide in regards to TSCC. Cancellation? Very likely. Renewal? Maybe, if given a good enough reason. Though if Season 3 can be presented as a whole new show, like say “Act 2″ of TSCC, then maybe FOX might give it another go. Maybe not.
It seems as if Season 2 ends on a note that exposes the Connors to the public eye, thereby bringing back the whole fugitive thing with full force. This could make for a very interesting third season. What do you think?
Well, Veran, all season long I’ve been complaining about how the Connors waltz around leaving clues a blind cop could follow. Apparently somebody on the writing staff heard me (Zack Stentz?), so they’re throwing that in. Somebody noticed the “Sarah Connor fugitive” thing in the background of the promo pics for an upcoming episode and mentioned it to me, so I think you’re right.
And that’s part of the franchise, at least in T-2, and partly in T-1, that various levels of cops are involved both in chasing the “bad Terminator” who whacked the police station in T-1, chasing the Connors after Sarah is designated a “terrorist”, etc. And it’s also part of the internal logic of the circumstances where you the basic premise and set in the real world. So I like that idea.
BUT it can’t overshadow the two main plot elements of the Terminator franchise: 1) bad Terminators hunting John Connor, 2) the Connor mission to stop Skynet.
Neither can it overshadow the central concept of the franchise – exploring the relationships between humans and AIs.
If it does, it will just be a (possibly more action-oriented) version of derailing the overall story arc like the “Crazy Sarah” (and to a lesser degree, “lonely John”) stuff did.
Problem is, this is speculation until Josh Friedman says, “Hey, mea culpa, we screwed up season 2, here’s the plan for season 3″ to the execs. And even then the execs have to buy into it.
So until I hear news about that from Friedman or Fox execs, yeah, I can pretty well guess what Fox is going to do: cancel the show.
So when TSCC is canceled, this site can boast that they predicted it EVERY SINGLE DAY. Why else would they love to hate TSCC? Take me up on my suggestion to post an official “TSCC Cancellation Countdown” clock on the main page.
Dollhouse is very mediocre, but so was TSCC’s season one and they were renewed. I’m now all caught up with Fringe. It took ten or more episodes before I realized that Doctor Bishop was Denethor.
Sci-fi will continue to fail on Fox with their bizarre scheduling, in my opinion. The constant breaks, then tossing the show on Friday tells many viewers that its being canceled. “Why bother, Fox sent ______ to the graveyard.”
Chad, I’ve predicted the cancelation of a lot of shows, and the renewal of even more, but likely none you were so fixated on as TSCC.
Chad, we won’t boast. Here’s what we will do though — we will predict that shows that are performing well, well below the network’s averages will be canceled. There will be another show next year (likely more than one), and the same themes will occur. The same complaints from die hard fans who can’t/won’t let go of false, hope, etc.
We don’t love to hate TSCC. While I haven’t loved the execution of the show from a quality standpoint, if its numbers were twice as good, there wouldn’t be posts every week that it was going to be canceled.
I don’t think Fringe will be hurt too badly by the layoff, but that’s mostly because when it comes back it still has Idol as its lead in.
“Kill the messenger” is very common. I started warning about problems with TSCC on the SCS site months ago, and it just didn’t go over well. And I’m a “fan”, not an impartial reviewer. (“Fan” is in quotes because I hate calling myself a “fan” of anything, since it implies uncritical acceptance of everything.)
TSCC’s season one wasn’t mediocre. It wasn’t brilliant, but the first nine episodes were reasonably tight and had a focus that fit the franchise (except for the high school stuff which they really correctly dropped in season 2 – never made any sense – Friedman was obviously reaching for the “lonely John” bit in season one but it was cut short).
And I didn’t realize Bishop was Denethor until someone mentioned it here I think.
Dollhouse hasn’t been brilliant so far, but it has been adequate and clearly has potential to develop into something killer IF the show runner works it right. There are plenty of plot developments so far that could turn into gold with the right overall story concept and good writers who pay attention to detail, suspense, tension, momentum, and push the envelope.
Meh, I’m just not sold on Dushku. But it’s hard for me to not watch a show with Amy Acker.
As for the site, it sure feels like they take jabs at TSCC in every article on Dollhouse. We get it guys, we do.
I can take a peak at another network’s news, I don’t see a “enjoy the last 4 episodes of this other show” stuck right in the thick of it. Why? To poke at the hardcore fans? To get more hits?
Chad, I think the key phrase in your comment is “it sure feels like”. I write one post on Fox show prospects per week, same as every other network. There are only 2 Fox shows in any doubt. None other are worth mentioning.
I didn’t see you complaining a few weeks ago for example when my CW headline was “Privileged Ends Tonight, Forever”
Chad, if it makes you feel any better, I don’t see Dollhouse getting renewed either. And I’m actually surprised by Bill’s hedging! I don’t see it coming back under any circumstance other than ratings improvements which seems extremely unlikely.
Better C3 (commercial ratings numbers) won’t help its case if Fox pulls the plug on Remote Free, and the buzz is that it will, at least for Dollhouse. I’d put the chances of it actually increasing its 18-49 S-T-D average for the remainder of the year somewhere between slim and none. In another week or two, I’d predict Bill will be seeing comments like yours from the Dollhouse faithful. We’ll see.
Well excuse my conspiracy theories then. I mistook it for just a Dollhouse article but you explained it’s more of an all-encompassing Fox update. It’d make more sense then. It just seemed out of place to tag another show at the bottom.
(I still think you toss in the names for hits, everyone does for search engines.)
And no, I’m not delighted in the demise of Dollhouse. Why assume I would be? I’m more upset at the higher ups like Friedman or the genius who scheduled Fox’s sci-fi lineup. At least I’m confident Fringe is going to stick.
I don’t think their use of shows in danger for the titles for the cancel/renewal posts is about getting Google hits. It seems to me that the shows in danger of cancellation are the ones people want to know about. Seriously, is there anyone worried about House not coming back next season? Titling a post “House still safe” seems pointless because everyone already knows that. On the other hand, people are worried about Dollhouse and TSCC, so it makes sense to use their names in the title.
Holly, I was going to say something similar. I saw posts over at the Fox TSCC wiki claiming Bill and Robert only did this stuff to get people over to their site to argue about the ratings so the hits are bigger. (Hey, it worked for me! LOL) But I never bought it because the numbers speak for themselves.
Robert, care to explain in detail why you think Dollhouse can’t improve its ratings even if the episodes get seriously better? Do you think there’s so much “damage” in the first five episodes that it can’t recover? Do you think the concept just doesn’t appeal to anybody? Is it the night? Do you think the episodes can’t or just won’t get better enough?
Inquiring minds…
24 is already renewed it was picked up for 2 seasons after season 6
As far as the search engines go, we try to optimize for what people will search for. They are not reaching our site via queries like “Does TSCC suck?” it’s more “Will Ugly Betty be renewed?”
Good headlines are still important, but that’s as far as getting people to click once they are already on our site. If things were titled “Thinking about last night” or “Some data about last week” nobody would ever have any idea what it was. Bill likes to put more creativity into the overnight posts as far as the headlines go as something he honestly enjoys doing. I don’t put any effort into that usually as far as the overnight posts go because it DOESN’T make much much difference as far as traffic.
My generic and boring headline for the Monday night post might have done a little better if my headline had been OMFG! Chuck rerun beats Heroes rerun!!!!!! But it wouldn’t have been much more traffic and, yeah, I really didn’t want to read those comments. Don’t get me wrong, if a good headline comes to me quickly, I won’t avoid it, but I’m not sitting around thinking about the headlines for more than about 15 seconds.
RSH, it doesn’t have anything to do with Dollhouse, and much detail isn’t necessary.
Once ratings sink, quality changes don’t usually matter. It would need to improve to levels where everyone who is still watching is telling their friends OMG OMG you HAVE to watch this. Experiences says this doesn’t happen much. Decreasing ratings are common. Stable ratings are fairly common. 25% improvement from a decline after you’ve stabilized (which is roughly what I think Dollhouse would need to achieve sans “Remote Free”) is four leaf clover rare these days.
Well the show has one great thing in it’s favor: it’s profitable. So it may stick around with just a 10% uptick in trends. I’d guess it needs to be pulling 1.8s and 1.9s in the final 3 episodes. This is a weird situation where the index could say “cancel,” and it will stick around.
I’m just thinking from what I heard over the last few days from people who would know, that its chances have taken a dive. They just aren’t convinced it will trend back up. So if it does…
Pete could still say screw it.
OK, so it’s just the way things are.
That’s why I was asking elsewhere if anybody had ever heard of a show recovering from a ratings dive (or never having had good ratings) in the last four or five episodes of a 22-episode season and getting renewed.
My guess is: almost never. That’s what you’re saying and I can believe it.
Any chance I can get a Renew/Cancel Index for The Simpsons that only takes into account the 2009 airings? Just curious as it looks like the “uncancelable” series will be on the bubble as Season 22 is airing two years down the road.
Robert:
Do we have any idea what the mechanics are behind show revivals? 24, NCIS, X-Files, and a few other shows whose names I’m forgetting right now are all examples of shows that actually built audiences as they went. I grant you that in 90% of cases, ratings stay stable or decline over time. That fact is what makes studying the 10% of shows that buck the trend very illuminating.
For what it’s worth, I think Dollhouse was marked for death from the start and its quality is low. From what I understand, Whedon was brought in and was not the creative force behind the show. Sadly, my guess is that this show will mark the end of Whedon’s career — you can’t have multiple clunkers in a row and survive.
I don’t see Dollhouse getting more than 1.4 this Friday, but it needs an upwards trend after that to stay alive. Getting a 1.9 average on the last 7 episodes still brings them only to a 1.8 in the season average. And even if that were enough for renewal, it seems like quite a difficult thing to achieve.
“24, NCIS, X-Files, and a few other shows whose names I’m forgetting right now are all examples of shows that actually built audiences as they went.”
I don’t think 24 is a case similar to NCIS, because it had huge audiences, had the worst slump and recovered, while the season average of viewers for NCIS has constantly climbed since day one. And other than with the X-Files or Seinfeld or Cheers or whatever other show this is said about, they have climbed from already above average numbers.
I guess my point is, with 24 I could see it actually being the quality of the show that took a dive and recovered. With NCIS though I think it is all about the buzz that show is not getting ever, so it takes longer to trickle down to every household. NCIS is advertised during the previous week of NCIS and that’s about it, there are no magazine covers, no morning show visits, no award wins, no Oprah guest staring.
24, Lost, even TSCC all had their huge all eyes on boards episodes already, while NCIS is still sneaking up on people zapping through cable channles while sick.
DaisiesDeathKnell, Simpsons was already renewed for at least one more season. (It may have been more.) Ah, yes, shouldn’t Simpsons be in black?
@Nick C: Are you talking about TSCC?
Also, I asked this question before but it was either ignored or unseen…
If FOX were to miraculously renew the show for a third season, despite the ratings (which let’s say for the sake of argument level out at 3.5 1.2/4 demo live by the end of the season), what reasons can you think of that would inspire them to make this decision?
Just humour me here.
Veran, Nick was talking about Dollhouse. TSCC is dead.
Hey Julia, if you’re going to dog me on this, then just back the hell off. *I* decide when I give up any hope for this show, not you. If you can’t offer any opinion besides provocation, don’t address me at all. I wasn’t talking to you anyway.
Oh, and for the record; FOX is waiting until May before they decide the show’s fate. What does that tell you?
It tells me that they aren’t going to do the fans the courtesy of a series finale. Shows are almost never announced as canceled before upfronts, and TSCC probably won’t be announced as canceled then, either. It just won’t be mentioned at all.
Nick’s comment was obviously about Dollhouse. I was just making sure you realized that.
Veran, what it tells me, is that next year, when TSCC repeats are running on SciFi or Syfy or wherever they wind up, you will still be interested in its ratings. Please forgive me, and Julia, we’ve seen the Wishful Thinking movie several times before, and it just grows tiresome after a while after about the 10th show you see it occur over.
As for FOX not announcing the decision until May, what that tells me is FOX is smart about how it handles negative asymmetrical risk — it avoids doing stuff that has NO upside but potential for downside. There is no upside for FOX to announce the decision early as it is clear they are in a deal w/Warner Bros to air all the episodes. There IS downside to announcing the show won’t be renewed before the uprfronts. The people who are advertising on TSCC won’t be happy about that news coming out early.
All of that said, you are absolutely right that it is your choice in terms of deciding whether to give up hope. But please remember, the numbers point to no hope (at least on FOX) very clearly, to such an extent that it’s really not speculation.
@Robert: Yes, but the problem with you guys is you only consider the numbers. You don’t take any other factor into account when you predict what will and won’t be cancelled. TSCC *might* be renewed, despite the odds, and you’ll be scratching your heads wondering why.
Don’t misunderstand me. I know you guys are intelligent and that your deductions make perfect sense *within the realm of raw numbers*, but your apparent inability (or unwillingness) to even consider other factors is baffling to say the least. What if FOX really does genuinely like this show? What if they decide “Hey, the ratings suck, but with DVR and a little patience, this show could become a goldmine with a third season”?
I’m not deluded and I’m not fantasizing. I’m simply taking a *positive* view on the show’s chances, as opposed to just looking at the numbers and losing all hope. That’s better for me, it may not be better for you, but I don’t care about that.
Btw, you broke a confidentiality condition. Don’t do it again, please.
Veran, this is where we disagree. The numbers are so low, even with DVR factored in, that there is absolutely no chance of that. Again, the ratings, even with DVR factored in are very bad. Plus, it’s not like the networks have really figured out how to make money on DVR viewers. I won’t say you’re deluded, but you’re definitely fantasizing. If TSCC were a “bubble show”, I’d agree with you down the line. But it’s nowhere near a bubble show.
As for accidentally typing out your first name. I apologize, and we corrected that as quickly as we could.
Robert, what did FOX expect when they put it on Friday? They must’ve known that the numbers would drop significantly. And it’s not like this show has been at its prime since moving to Friday. We had three Sarah-centric episodes that weren’t doing the ratings any favours and we’re only now just starting to get into the really good stuff. If TSCC were in its prime, we would be doing a lot better.
Anyway, the FOX strategist or whatever he’s called said that this was a niche show, so is anyone surprised at the low numbers on a Friday night? TSCC will very likely be cancelled, but what if FOX aren’t willing to see this show die completely? It’s well within their power to greenlight a new season on the condition that it be retooled and presented as something that would snare a wider audience.
Yes, the show is doing crap, but it has the potential to do so much better. This is my point. They can “reboot” the show and bring it back as something far more successful before. It would be a hell of a lot cost effective than trying their luck with an entirely new show that might fail utterly. What do you think? If the show could be tweaked and remade to better itself, would it survive this second season debacle?
hey a little random… but where the hell did fringe go? it was doing ok, and its not even in the renew/cancel index? can anyone help me on this
haha, i feel like an idiot, sorry, i see it now, my bad
Veran, you seem to subscribe to the same ideal as a few Moonlight fans in thinking that “anything can happen in Hollywood”. The problem here is that “anything can happen” doesn’t automatically translate to “everything will happen”.
I don’t see anything in the numbers, live or DVR, to give me pause in thinking TSCC is as good as dead. Sure, FOX *could* play against the facts and renew for some reason but why would they – realistically?
As far as the move to Friday goes, I think thats evidence enough that FOX already decided there wouldn’t be a renewal for 3rd season. However, it does them no good to reveal that early unless they decide to pull it completely. It would be bad business.
I don’t think Dollhouse is far behind, unless it climbs a decent amount.
“Sure, FOX *could* play against the facts and renew for some reason but why would they – realistically?”
That’s what I’ve been asking Nick C repeatedly, but he never seems to have an answer for me. In my opinion, and that’s solely what it is, FOX would have a reason to renew the show *if* Friedman can pitch an idea that will double the show’s viewers in Season 3. Also, like I said before; this show could be retooled to better appeal to the wider audience and to adhere to the core themes of the franchise.
That’s something TSCC has over Dollhouse: the certainty that if you give the show more of what the fans expect from a show bearing the name “Terminator”, you’ll attract a larger audience.
Another point to consider is that by the time FOX *may* greenlight a third season, some of the writers may have moved on to other projects, which means it would get new writers with different ideas that might work in TSCC’s favour. I’m not saying the current writers are bad or anything, but change is certainly good at the moment.
I dunno, maybe FOX will just keep it around cos’ they like it. *shrugs*
Veran, Fox probably expected the numbers to drop when they moved to Friday but they didn’t expect TSCC to pull in the lowest numbers for a new scripted show on any of the big 4 networks, which it did for a couple of weeks.
We’ve discussed this before. Fox probably doesn’t want to announce it’s cancelled until after T4 comes out, so they’ll quietly leave it off next year’s schedule.
As for Friedman, he’s got no credibility with Fox now- deciding to start off Fridays with the 3 worst episodes of the season was a disaster.
And no,it’s not certain that if you give the fans more of what they expect from Terminator, the ratings will increase. At this point, it might be too hard to win back significant numbers of viewers who have already quit the show.
Michael, Friedman had little choice in the matter, from what he said at Wondercon. FOX waited so long to decide on the back nine that Friedman and the writers were forced to get the first lot of episodes done ASAP. Besides, FOX decided to greenlight the back nine after reading the scripts for “Good Wound” and “Desert Cantos”, so they knew what was going to be aired as the first episodes on the Friday.
They obviously figured it was good enough at the time, or is JF contridicting himself?
Or possibly FOX didn’t have high hopes for its future and were moving it to Friday so they didn’t really care what he did.
Didn’t TSCC get the first back-9 order of the season? How was that waiting so long to order it?
TSCC the back-9 order announced here on October 20.
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/10/17/fox-orders-full-season-of-terminator-sarah-connor-chronicles/6439
I guess someone forgot to tell Friedman, or he is a liar…
Hmm… let’s hope we TSCC fans get a similar announcement from you guys about a third season. You can be as cynical and non-believing as you want, we won’t mind. lol
Veran, I said it a couple weeks ago, let me repeat it here:
TSCC was CANCELED by FOX. Officially. They told Warner they wouldn’t be giving it a 3rd season. It’s done. Warner had to agree to some more adverts just to keep the show on the air. Enjoy the very last four episodes. SEE FEE will not be interested with 1.0s and 1.2s. It’s possible it could still end up there, but not likely. It’s done.
Mmm hmm, and yet they un-cancelled TSCC and gave them the back nine. I won’t take your word for it, only when it is officially announced by FOX themselves will I believe it. Sorry, but I’m stubborn that way.
Correct me if I’m wrong, Nick, but when you say TSCC was canceled by Fox, are you referring to the initial cancellation back in the fall – when, according to Friedman, they were closing up shop and then got a call on a Friday night to start up again the following week – or are you referring to the show NOW being canceled sometime in the last month or so?
I believe Friedman acknowledged that the back nine were ordered in October, so I don’t think he’s lying. The problem is that I don’t think they had all the initial 13 episodes filmed at that point, so there was some delay in writing the back nine episodes.
However, I do feel that these last few episodes – and possibly the four to come – feel “rushed” or perhaps “crammed”. Friedman claims they “crammed” a lot in the last few episodes, more than he thought they could have, and in the last couple episodes, it feels like it to me. Obviously he’s trying to make up for the glacial pace of the first 13 – indeed 16 – episodes. But it makes the show feel less “tight” to me.
And what they’re throwing in I don’t like. The Cameron “bomb in the head” stunt is just painfully bad writing.
The spoiler clip with Sarah confronting Cameron and suggesting to Cameron that John sent her back in time to get rid of her is just brain dead, even for Sarah.
Cameron’s hand was twitching again – as in humans a sign of anger, except Terminators don’t get angry, which the writers can’t seem to decide. I was hoping Cameron, who was standing there with a semi-auto in hand, would shoot the incredibly annoying Sarah. I’ve been waiting all season for Cameron to bitch-slap Sarah – and Derek. Instead, Cameron gets the screw-over again, courtesy of Friedman.
No wonder Summer Glau was unhappy with the fate of her character at WonderCon.
I’m beginning to think that not only will the show not be renewed, it won’t even go out in a blaze of glory, but in another smelly incompetent mess.
Richard, sometime in the last month, Nick posted here and said that his sources at Fox told him that TSCC was cancelled after its poor performance on Fridays. He’s talking about the show being cancelled NOW.
Veran, sure things happen. However they won’t. Enjoy the very last four episodes. FOX won’t be announcing anything. Even at their announcement for next season I doubt the words TSCC will even come out of their mouths. It will be one of the majority, a show that isn’t picked up and never officially canceled.
MY sources have told me TSCC’s fate HASN’T been decided yet.
They are taking into account Terminator: Salvation being a box office smash, which may or may not bring viewers to TSCC in a third season, but that’s the thinking, anyway.
Fox hasn’t decided if they will renew TSCC.
I guess you can take what I say with a grain of salt but if so, take what Nick has to say with an equal amount.
There’s a slight difference between an obvious troll posting something and someone who has been a long time commenter and is obviously in a position where he does have access to this information posting something, James Cameron. While I don’t think Nick is always 100% right, I do think his comments deserve far more weight than yours.
Noremac Semaj/James Cameron, I am shoveling the salt in as I type this, but since the Fox upfront, and any decision on TSCC, will occur prior to the opening of Terminator: Salvation, how could they possibly take into account the results of the movie? Or are you talking about the hoped for, hypothetical results of the movie?
Bill, have we any word on when FOX will ACTUALLY decide TSCC’s fate?
Because for them to decide it’s future based on T4’s success, they would have to wait until after the movie premieres. Strange. I guess FOX have the liberty of taking their time with their decisions.
Only in dream land, Veran. Anything that is not announced as coming back at upfronts is gone.
All Fox fall show announcements will be on or before May 18.
^^^And as of April 3rd, TSCC will be chillin’ with the dodo bird.
TSCC Season 2 ends on April 10th, actually.
And stop going on about “dream lands” Julia, I told you I’m not dissillusioned, just optimistic in the face of overwhelming pessimism. God, it’s almost as if people aren’t allowed to smile around here. Anyway, if FOX pulls the plug, TSCC can go elsewhere (que the “no one will take on a show with a 1.0 in the demo”, despite the fact that the 1.0 was a one-off).
WB are certainly interested in shopping it around, as you said yourself Nick C.
Veran i think what Bill,Rob and others are saying is the numbers are terrible for the show there is no two ways about.Terrible numbers gets a show cancelled simple as that.Sure it could go to a station like the cw but it will be doing the same as it is right now or even worst.It would take the whole cast of the first two movies to pull this show out of the grave.
All talk and no action make this a dull show.
Dollhouse has a better chance of being re-newed, Whedon’s shows sell millions of DVD’s a year. TSCC is gone has no teen fanbase, Whedon had time to build that with Angel/Buffy/Firefly. I’d say TSCC is gone, and Dollhouse will be cancelled season 3-ish
WHY WAS TSCC MOVED IN THE FIRST PLACE?
WHO SITS AT HOME ON FRIDAYS AND WATCHES TV ANYMORE?
BUMP IT BACK TO THURSDAYS AND SEE THE NUMBERS RISE.
IM A FAN OF THE SHOW AND DONT WANT IT TO GO
DOLLHOUSE NEVER GOT INTO
RENEW THE SHOW AND MAKE ALOT OF PEOPLE HAPPY