I’ve written in the past that if Castle held onto its premiere ratings it would get renewed, retention be damned. Sadly for Castle, cracks are starting to appear, and its numbers are slipping. Last night’s show drew only a 2.5 18-49 rating, that’s 92.5% of ABC’s 18-49 average, putting it right on the edge for renewal. It still could be OK if it can hold that 2.5 demo rating, but any further erosion and it’s a goner. Based on the slip last night, I’m changing it to “In Danger”.
No such doubt over the numbers for the premiere episode of Better off Ted. They’re solidly the “not being renewed” territory.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P | ABC | 2,183 | 3,580 | 0.61 | final season |
| SCRUBS-WED 8PM | ABC | 2,203 | 3,580 | 0.62 | final season |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,264 | 3,580 | 0.63 | canceled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,365 | 3,580 | 0.66 | canceled |
| SCRUBS-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,447 | 3,580 | 0.68 | final season |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,460 | 3,580 | 0.69 | final season |
| SCRUBS-TU 9:30PM | ABC | 2,543 | 3,580 | 0.71 | final season |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,549 | 3,580 | 0.71 | canceled |
| BETTER OFF TED | ABC | 2,825 | 3,580 | 0.79 | |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,856 | 3,580 | 0.80 | final season |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 2,981 | 3,580 | 0.83 | canceled |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,011 | 3,580 | 0.84 | coming back |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,589 | 3,580 | 1.00 | |
| CASTLE | ABC | 3,941 | 3,580 | 1.10 | |
| PRIVATE PRACTICE | ABC | 4,071 | 3,580 | 1.14 | |
| BROTHERS & SISTERS | ABC | 4,687 | 3,580 | 1.31 | |
| LOST | ABC | 5,875 | 3,580 | 1.64 | coming back |
| GREY’S ANATOMY | ABC | 6,593 | 3,580 | 1.84 | |
| DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES | ABC | 7,309 | 3,580 | 2.04 |
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Notes:
According to Jim: After 8 seasons, and recent horrible ratings, but presumably great sydication profits, ABC’s According to Jim looks like its prime-time run is coming to an end this season as one of the stars says the stage has been bulldozed. That seems pretty final to me.
Scrubs: Eight seasons is the end for Scrubs as well. Update: Or perhaps not. I am doubting that retraction, I believe he spoke the truth initially and then got his hand slapped and tried to backtrack. I’m keeping it marked as final season.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
What do you guys make of this?
“Several sources tell me alphabet net president Steve McPherson just informed “Scrubs” creator Bill Lawrence that he’d be happy to bring the show back for season nine. The only requirement? Zach Braff would have to do a handful of episodes. Seems the eight-year-old show is reeling in a nice young, male demo that doesn’t normally watch ABC and that makes McPherson smiley.”
http://blog.zap2it.com/korbitv/2009/03/you-ask-i-answer-could-scrubs-return-for-a-ninth-season-plus-desperate-housewives-more.html
“Ted not better off”. Lol, good one
scrubs (and better off ted’s) biggest reason to return is their performance in the very young 18-34 year olds. Their 18-49 are indeed middling at best, but the other demo is actually pretty respectable.
ABC would be insane to bring back Scrubs. It’s overall viewers and 18-49 are horrible. Plus hasn’t half the cast has either said they aren’t coming back for a ninth season or they’ve singed on to other pilots.
I like Scrubs but I agree that it should finish this year and end on the high.
I agree. I enjoyed Scrubs this year, but it should go out now if it can’t do a full compliment with everybody on board next year.
I’ve always loved Scrubs and I’m glad they got a chance to do a proper last season given last year’s strike interruption and NBC’s bizarre instance that they shorten the season. I thought Better Off Ted was great and will be watching again tomorrow, but I have no hope for it. As for Castle, it’s really starting to grow on me and I really hope it gets renewed, if only to give poor Nathan Fillion a break.
Why is Samantha Who in the green but Castle not even though Castle has better demo numbers?
HeroesforGhosts, Read the text at the beginning of the post. It’s because of last night’s number’s.
regarding Samantha Who? according to Christina ABC is holding back 5 episodes of the 20 episode season 2 for next season so i guess it is renewed?
In the Motherhood will air only six of its 13 episodes this season so i guess that raises it’s chances of a season 2 since there will already be 7 episodes for that?
to T,
No that means that ABC doesn’t think it will be successful and will only air six episodes because they’re going to make room for Ugly Betty, while ratings challenged at the moment, has a very international appeal to it
Shea, does it really though? Have an international appeal? Isn’t Ugly Betty more the kind of show where every country makes its own version and no one really wants the US one? Like The Office.
idizzle, Ugly Betty is the most popular show in the Earth!.
Castle I think its safe! and Better Off Ted will be gone!.
Ugly Betty as in the US version of it? A version that ABC can make money off and not the original creator? Could you provide linkage for that, ABCFanaticHappy?
I think there is a possibility Castle may come out of the “in danger” spot once ABC’s other shows premiere. I really don’t see any of them catching on. Then again, I thought Castle would tank so what the hell do I know?
Melissa, if the ratings for Castle stay the same, I would keep it in danger, even if the rest of the shows tank. (While I think ABC needs to keep at least one new show this season, there’s still the danger that they don’t agree with me.) If it drops, I would say it’s likely gone. If it trends up, it’s safe.
I think ABC will make a decision about Castle when 1) CSI:Miami repeats and 2) how good the show repeats.
This is where I think we can all become too focused on the numbers of the moment over actually having a plan (which I admit it is hard to believe most nets actually have). Too often we blame shows for not attracting better numbers when the networks are, I think, more at fault. This is one of those occastions.
Full disclosure: I am not a fan of of this show, although I do like a couple of the actors. However, it would not pain me in any way to see it cancelled.
Unless Castle drops off the map, or unless the two shows coming from ABC do gangbusters, Castle would seem to me to be ripe for renewal if networks actually believed they had a job to do themselves. Check my logic here:
Castle is a light and fluffy procedural, which right now is the best type of show to be. That type of show is about the only one on television right now that allows for growth, and Castle seems to be sure and steady in the type of show it wants to be, with several appealing actors. It seems to me exactly the type of show that, say, Bones was when it first appeared. These are the types of shows that can grow if you nurture them, as Fox did with Bones.
Or not. Castle isn’t particularly good, so maybe it never catches on, but being good has never really seemed to be the predominant factor is why any show catches on, and I’d rather cancel it several months too late than several months too early, especially as it seems so difficult to launch anything right now.
I’m not particularly a fan of show, although it has made me smile on several occasions, and quite frankly I wouldn’t mind seeing it cancelled since that would free up an actor I like to go out and do something a bit more substantial.
But if I were the head of ABC, this is exactly the type of show that I would target for long term development. It’s has at least average numbers already (and how many new shows this season can say that?), and it is exactly the type of show that I believe most people out there (but not me) want to see. The problem, I think, is not with the show itself but in getting people to sample it. ABC has been unable to get people to do that, and that, I think, is ABC’s fault more than anyone else’s. After all, those promos they relentlessly showed were just god awful. They made it look like it was going to be the worst show I’d seen in years, which it turned out not to be. But I can’t imagine those lame promos turned on more people than they turned off. ABC really dropped the ball there, and that is on them, not the show.
Retentionistas will point to the “plum” DTWTSCS lead-in, but I am with those who believe the lead-in stuff is complete and total garbage in this day and age. 1/3rd of homes or more have DVRs now, I believe, so in those homes the idea of “lead-in” is a complete non-factor. As for everyone else, well, I think 30 years of remote control tech have pretty much killed the idea that people just leave the channel tuned to whatever station they were just watching. Sure, some small fraction perhaps, but not enough to be meaningful.
People watch what they want to watch, not what comes on after the show they were just watching. Those that believe otherwise are either deluding themselves or have an agenda.
I’d move Castle to a spot where it was competing against completely different material, rather than 10 pm Monday, where it’s going up against two shows that appeal to many of the same audience members. Put it up against a serial type show and/or reality competition and it would probably do much better than it is now, where it is up against two other procedurals (albeit different toned procedurals).
Now if Castle craters down to under 2.0, all bets are off, but at current levels a network should be able to make it into a solid performer over the course of another year. And if they can’t, I say that is on the network and not the show.
Again, I am not affliated with Castle in any way, nor do I particulary even like the show. Please no personal attacks over how crappy you think the show is and therefore how crappy you think I am. If you have mental problems, please try and work them out with a therapist or a friend rather than here on this board.
Castle dropped to a 2.3 in the second half hour. Now see, I am not trying to dispute that it might get renewed with mid-2s demos, but I hardly think it is a sure bet and if that 2.3 is any indication on where it’s going to settle once DWTS cuts back to 90 minutes and Castle loses the direct lead in, then ABC might as well groom Better off Ted as their next hit.
Other than that, I think that ABC did get it sampled. It had what, 13 million viewers on average its first week? Now maybe you think, they did not reach the right audience, but ABC obviously thought the romance aspect and Nathan Fillion would be most likely to hook the middle aged women crowd out of DWTS and generally I tend to agree that the show isn’t much for men or the low end of the age demos.
idizzle, it had 10 mil its first week. I agree that ABC did the best it could. The question is what else do they have? If Castle ends up as their biggest new “hit” of the spring (which it very well could, even at these numbers) I still think it should come back, though I wouldn’t bet on it in the least.
Just saying if Castle cannot put up a solid 2.5 at least then it is doing worse than Boston Legal did in that slot and ABC could not get rid of that fast enough.
Maybe I just lack the imagination that the other two dramas could do that much worse. Remembering Eli Stone and Pushing Daisies, obviously that’s my shortcoming.
I like Scrubs, but didn’t they already film what was supposed to be the series finale that will air in about a month? Doesn’t seem like a good idea to bring it back, not sure if it could even work. Maybe now that According to Jim is done, Scrubs will take that show’s spot as being renewed even though it is deep in cancel territory. If this does somehow happen, I would say Ted’s chances just improved if it can maintain Scrubs like ratings especially since Ted has similar humor to Scrubs.
Castle definitely on the bubble now, but I do think that one of their 3 new dramas will return even if they are all below average, unless they are all below a .8, simply because ABC doesn’t have much and they would probably give one show a second chance in the fall. So Castle might just have to perform better than Cupid and the Unusuals to get another shot, unless it really drops off.
Now with this possible Scrubs extension, it makes me a little nervous about LOST. I know most people bring up the fact that even though it is supposed to have a 6th and final season next year that it isn’t a 100% guarantee and could have been backed out of but it also isn’t a 100% guarantee that the show will end after season 6 either. Fortunately the demos are holding and they will get a season 6, but if LOST is again ABC’s 3rd best scripted show next year, will they really let it go, or will they try to squeeze out a season 7 which would possibly be without the same writers plus would be extremely awkward since a bunch of things will be answered next season and it would be obvious if they had to all of a sudden stretch it out for another dozen or more episodes. As much as I love the show, I want it to end as much on the creators terms rather than the networks. ABC already got them to agree to 6 seasons when ideally the writers wanted only 4 or maybe 5, would ABC really be that stupid to mess the end of the show up??? I hope not, but it is a possibility right?
i think castle will be fine. considering….
cupid is the dumbest TV idea ive ever heard, wow. whoever created this show, i have no repect for you. so i honestly believe it will tank.
The unusuals is a just another crime show, and i dont believe it will catch on, so i dont think it will do too well.
But hey, people have watched stupid things before, so maybe these 2 will be hits. So we will see
Is it fair to put ‘Lost’ in the Likely Renewed category considering Abrams/Lindeloff/Cuse have a hard target time for ending the show? That pretty much sounds like ABC is willing to let them end the show on their own since it will be within the next couple of seasons.
Meli, for a show with the numbers like Lost the only effective difference between Likely Renewed and Renewal Announced is that there has so far been no official announcement by ABC.
Bill, again, Lost’s official announcement for next year came 2 years ago. It has been officially announced! In terms of designations in these lists, I don’t personally see any problems with taking it a year at a time anyway. But, if at the start of next season’s (2009-2010) index you list The Big Bang Theory and Two and a Half Men as already renewed for 2010-2011, then Lost should be marked as renewed for next year now. If you wouldn’t list TBBT and 2.5 Men as already renewed at the start of next season then there is nothing inconsistent.
Uncle! Lost set to Renewal Announced!
When is Ugly Betty coming back on??
I feel that most shows on all of these networks would succeed if it wasn’t for the network coming in and messing up schedules. For example, randomly this season there was no new Ugly Betty episodes for about 3 weeks. So of course, when it actually is back on I completely forget and watch a different channel because I am used to it being off. Then one night I turn on the tv for Ugly Betty and scrubs is on! All I am asking for is some consistency! Last season was bad enough due to the writers strike, this season it was just unacceptable. Can we have a new episode every week during a season?? PLEASE??? That would keep me watching!
Tim people have watched stupid things, look at Private Practice its ridiculousy bad and stupid!.
ABC needs a cop drama and that is The Unusuals. Castle is more like Bones.
Private Practice is a better show than Greys now and has delivered a solid season. It deserves its success as one of the few survivors of the 10 month writer’s strike hiatus and is one of the rare shows to survive in that timeslot where other shows die quickly.
Ugly Betty will have one more season before it dies a death. This season has been very poor.
Scrubs should end after this season, on a relative high with the original cast.
Will be interesting to see how Samantha Who fares without the DWTS lead-in. I predict it will plummet on the index.
Okay most likely, Castle will return for a second season hoping it keeps it’s rating in the upper 7-10 million area. Otherwise it’s bound to get canceled. Furthermore, Better Off Ted was bound to get bad ratings. Its ABC’s wannabe version of The Office, and it the way it has been executed is below basic. Also, Samantha Who? will definitely not be canceled because it’s one of ABC’s veteran shows. Meaning it has already proved to have an audience while Castle is still searching for an audience.
Motherhood / SW? VS Idol did somewhat better than Ugly Betty vs Idol
WHY is Life on Mars getting cancelled??????? This is a good show that they should give a chance to. WE DON”T WANT ANY MORE WITLESS REALITY SHOWS!!!!! Come up with something with a plot!! ABC had better hang onto Lost as it is one of the few good shows that it has!
Poor ABC it can’t create any new hits
DH and GA or LOST are the only hits they have: B&S is okay, I think they still I think they should have tried to nurture DSM. With a cheaper budget It could be pulling in UB numbers and they could be paired together next year: ahhh well. Hopefully The Unusuals will be a small hit : nurture Castle they should.
Fin, the problem with DSM awas exactly that it was really costing too much for the numbers it was making, not only the episode cost, but all the re-tooling that was in the second season. The special billboards all over NY vacant lots thing that they did for promotion. They had to re-tool the first episodes to the point that 2.05 was shot as a new season premiere. We are talking about 4 episodes being scrapped here. Those episodes cost money to make. Even with all the re-tooling it was still not getting a decent viewers. It was just not worth the effort. It was too expensive, and it was not having budget cuts, like Private Practice, that had doctors doing dialog in hallways in scrubs, giving the illusion of surgery scenes, because those are expensive to make, and they where on a tight budget.
I just find it amusing that the show that was snubbed in ABC’s season promo for all it’s shows, the only show that didn’t have the cast brought the sound stage to film the promo, and was added as 2s insert with a photo of the leading lady, is the only sophomore show to survive.
I would consider Life on Mars finished rather than canceled. The original British series ran for a single season. The question is: was it intended to be a single series run? Obviously, they could’ve continued the story indefinitely if they wanted to.
Gonna miss that Michael Imperioli / Harvey Keitel combo.
“I would consider Life on Mars finished rather than canceled. The original British series ran for a single season.”
No it didn’t.
I hope Better off Ted doesn’t get cancelled. It is a very funny show, it is different but good acting.