Reaper’s 18-49 demo audience increased last week, and its 18-49 average went from 1.124 million to 1.147 million. And though up is up, is that up enough? I think it has to stay at least there to have any chance to come back. What happens in the CW executive suite may have more effect on Reaper’s chances.
I still have no idea what the CW is thinking about its Friday shows Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. They could both be back or both be cancelled because of the schedule holes the network has to fill. If only one survives, it’ll be The Game. Not much to say about Privileged, other than it’s not going to be coming back.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY | CW | 288 | 1,030 | 0.28 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE | CW | 345 | 1,030 | 0.33 | cancelled |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS | CW | 805 | 1,030 | 0.78 | |
| THE GAME | CW | 892 | 1,030 | 0.87 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 918 | 1,030 | 0.89 | |
| REAPER | CW | 1,147 | 1,030 | 1.11 | |
| 90210 | CW | 1,460 | 1,030 | 1.42 | |
| ONE TREE HILL | CW | 1,533 | 1,030 | 1.49 | |
| GOSSIP GIRL | CW | 1,551 | 1,030 | 1.51 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,560 | 1,030 | 1.51 | |
| SMALLVILLE | CW | 1,834 | 1,030 | 1.78 |
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Notes:
Friday night – Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Reaper won’t be back, that treat the show poorly and it owned by abc studios
Well CW has Melrose Place Deux and Lily next fall so maybe there’s really no Reaper anymore next season.
does CW have a giant vault of pilots in it’s closet, or are they going to be playing ANTM reruns next season?
they have at least 4 pilots that i can think of, and 3 of them i can see 100% being given series
. Melrose
. Lily
. Beautiful life
. Vampire thing
Come next January, CW will need something to throw under the Idol bus. I don’t see them doing that with any of their other current shows (Dawn does everything she can to keep them AWAY from Idol.) And I doubt she’d put one of her new shows up against Idol.
Jon, that’s a good point. The CW has to put *something* against Idol. Although that “something” has been repeats at 9pm Tuesday for months.
Even though Reaper is in the green, does it even have a chance of being renewed?
I think no or maybe mid-season again next season if some of their new shows flop.
We all know that WB produces Chuck. What are the prospects if NBC does not renew Chuck and CW picks it up?
Since Chuck isn’t targeted at young women…I’d say no chance Chuck fan.
I would love to see the CW keep “The Game”. The situational issues are real even though they are reflected through the lives of athletes. The Game is consistent!!!