I have in fact said on several occasions (as several others have) that the Chuck fans are becoming a reason for me not wanting the show to come back. None the less as I’ve said previously I don’t think NBC should bring Chuck back because its not performing well and is a sure sign that they’re just going to settle for fourth place. There’s no indication that with weaker competition Chuck will improve because its had weaker competition and not improved and there’s no indication that promotion is really going to help the show since people tuned in after the Super Bowl promotion and then tuned right back out.

For the record I’ve said similar things about Heroes (a show I actually watch and will be happy to see back next year) – NBC probably shouldn’t have picked it up because I think its incredibly unlikely the show does anything better than modest ratings vs. how much it costs and its just more status quo programming from them rather than aggressively trying to turn things around. Similar things were also said about the FNL deal.

In the grand scheme of things whether Chuck is on the air next year or not makes no real difference to me. I won’t watch it then just like I’m not watching it now. The only way it effects me is that if it weren’t on air a show I might have watched won’t be and I can live with that since there’s nothing on the NBC pilot slate that jumps out at me. I will however continue to point out when the Chuck fans are just plain wrong in some of the things they say – like CBS comedies are killing Chuck for example.

The key thing to remember when you look at The Office is that its numbers going into the Super Bowl and its numbers coming out of the Super Bowl are pretty much the same. It didn’t pick up any noticeable audience numbers after its Super Bowl show but at the same time it hasn’t lost any. As is often the case more than half the people who watched the post-Super Bowl shot weren’t especially keen on what they saw and didn’t opt to check out the next original episode. It happens.

In contrast to that after its Super Bowl promotion Chuck did pick up. It went up to a 3.0, which is higher than its seen since and higher than where it was when it went on hiatus in December. The problem is that none of that audience stuck around and worse than that part of the audience that was there before the show went on hiatus left as well. When Chuck went off the air in December it went off with a 2.6, the Super Bowl promoted 3D episode scored a 3.0 and then the next original episode scored a 2.2. Not only did Chuck lose viewers coming off the 3D episode (and those are viewers who actually tuned in specially for the episode) it lost it from where it before the Super Bowl promotion to the tune of nearly half a demo point.

As for last night’s episode, I thought it was a solid episode–not great as everyone else seems to be thinking. I know is Chuck is suppose to be a fun show but the glaring plot holes is really diminishing my enjoyment of the show.

I’ve made about 3 Alex posts since I’ve been here. And I don’t like him/her or dislike him… I’ve never met the guy/gal. He’s talking about a show that i watch, not insulting my religion or family.

I’m hoping the show gets renewed just to spite him… then again he’ll just be on here obsessing over it again next year if it comes back.

“Can I just point something out about the Super Bowl promotion, when promoted to more than 90 million people Chuck got an increase of 2 million viewers for a special 3D episode, those viewers promptly left the show two weeks later when half of Chuck’s supposed competition was in repeats and the 3D gimmick was gone.”

I then pointed out that Office, which did get the spot, did not retain any of its 22 million viewers (over double its regular audience) either, and it aired a new episode that week and the week after. To which you promptly said audience retention didn’t matter and was never expected, it was all about ads. Okay, fair enough, and if that’s your point as to why Chuck did not get the post Super Bowl spot then I agree. Office is a stronger show and NBC definitely could make more money for ads. However, in the next paragraph you say:

“The question here though is what makes you think Chuck would have been able to retain the audience from a post-Super Bowl slot? It went from a 3.0 for the Super Bowl promoted episode to a 2.2, where’s the audience retention there?”

If the promotion was about gaining viewers for shows, then NBC should pick the show it wants to build, or that it knows can retain viewers. My only point was even a show like Office, which is possibly the premiere show of the network, could not retain any Super Bowl viewers. If THAT show can’t do it, to me that points to a problem with NBC vs. the strength of the other networks, not just with Chuck.

No there isn’t and my original quote was that Chuck hasn’t posted increases against repeats of the CBS comedies and you’ve provided no numbers that show that because it doesn’t happen. The February numbers are both DOWN on what Chuck did against an original CBS line-up both after the Super Bowl and the previous year. Chuck’s numbers have only increased when House has been taken out of the equation and even then you have to fully remove House to see anything more than a tenth of an increase. On top of that even with House out of the picture it only rises to a 2.4.

“Actually, I should have posted those because they also prove something that you already said: House pulls from Chuck viewers as well, as evidenced the fact that Chuck did better vs. 24 than it did vs. House. Of course, this proves the theory that NBC should first try Chuck/Heroes on Wednesdays before pulling the plug.”

Again kudos on the selective numbers.

As you can see from the full nuumbers I posted previously when Chuck was facing a House repeat on March 23 its numbers were the same as the previous week against original House and original CBS line-up – minus a tenth drop in the 18-34. So you’re argument is that between them Fox and CBS are ’stealing’ a tenth of Chuck’s 18-34.

The question here though is what makes you think Chuck would have been able to retain the audience from a post-Super Bowl slot? It went from a 3.0 for the Super Bowl promoted episode to a 2.2, where’s the audience retention there? Also to put the Super Bowl promoted episode (and the episodes that followed) into context, before Chuck went on hiatus in December its final episode did a 2.6 in the 18-49 and a 2.2 in the 18-34 so the increase from the Super Bowl promotion was a 0.4 in both demos and the drop for the next original episode was below what it did before it went on hiatus in December. And that for the record are the kind of numbers Chuck pulls against weak competition.

To repeat your prior quote…

-Its never happened before why would it this week?

You said there was no boost, and the numbers say that there was an increase. See, that’s the difference between saying something and writing it down. If you say something, it might be possible to interpret it different ways. When it’s merely text, you take the quote as it is.

If you think I’m in denial that Chuck’s numbers have gone down since the Super Bowl, you’re crazy. I know they’ve gone down. If they were still at their Super Bowl levels, NBC would have renewed the show a long time ago. The point I made with the numbers (that you seemed to deny) is that there is a correlation between Chuck’s numbers and whether CBS’s lineup is first-run or repeat.

I didn’t use the March 16th numbers because Chuck was in a repeat, and the March 2nd numbers was new vs. new, and I was trying to find a new vs. repeat to prove my point. But here are the March 2nd numbers in the interest of full disclosure.

CBS The Big Bang Theory 10.94 3.9/10 2.9/8
FOX 24 10.41 3.1/8 2.6/7
NBC Chuck 6.59 2.4/6 1.8/5
CBS How I Met Your Mother 11.08 4.2/10 3.3/9

Actually, I should have posted those because they also prove something that you already said: House pulls from Chuck viewers as well, as evidenced the fact that Chuck did better vs. 24 than it did vs. House. Of course, this proves the theory that NBC should first try Chuck/Heroes on Wednesdays before pulling the plug.

“Are you seriously suggesting that NBC should have put a show that struggles to maintain six million viewers and a 2.1 in the demo on after the Super Bowl?”

That’s not what Chuck was getting in the ratings when that decision was made. They were basing their decision off of Season 1 numbers and possibly the beginning of Season 2.