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Terminator, Dollhouse Get Big 18-49 Demo DVR Boosts

Posted on 07 April 2009 by Bill Gorman

4/8 Update: I had incorrectly calculated the % of all viewing by DVR in the second and third tables. They have been corrected.

I’m going to add another table to my regular DVR viewing post starting this week, Largest 18-49 Demo Increase from DVR viewing. I’ll be using 18-49 demo ratings as the basis for the calculations, not average viewership. We’ve used average viewership in the past primarily because they were the only Live+7 DVR numbers that were available to us. Now we also have 18-49 Live+7 ratings information, and ultimately they are more an indicator of a show’s future prospects than average viewership. For those of you who are change resistant, I’ll still include the same average viewership DVR tables as before. It will be interesting to compare the differences between the first chart and the third.

Among shows in danger of being canceled, both Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles and Dollhouse received big % boosts in their 18-49 demo ratings during the week of March 16-22. While I don’t think it will save either show, it’s yet another bag of grist for the mill. Interestingly, the percentage of people who watched Terminator on the airdate was strikingly low, perhaps because of the NCAA tournament first round games that week.

Enjoy all 3 tables this week. Note that I have also changed the order of the three measured viewing columns from past posts (to ease the production process). Live viewing is first and Live+7 viewing is third. That’s the opposite of the way it used to be.

To see past weeks DVR viewing lists click here.

Those of you interested in DVR viewing numbers might enjoy:

When Do DVR’d Shows Get Watched? Same Night or After?

Doing My Part To Combat DVR Misinformation.

Largest 18-49 Demo Increase From DVR Viewing for Broadcast TV Shows:


Rank Programs Net  18-49 Live (rating)  18-49 Live+SD (rating)  18-49 Live+7 (rating)  Increase From DVR Viewing  % of All Viewing By DVR % of DVR Viewing On Airdate
1 OFFICE NBC 2.97 4.00 5.17 74.1% 42.6% 46.8%
2 GOSSIP GIRL CW 0.83 1.16 1.42 71.1% 41.5% 55.9%
3 TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES FOX 1.08 1.27 1.78 64.8% 39.3% 27.1%
4 DOLLHOUSE FOX 1.25 1.52 2.03 62.4% 38.4% 34.6%
5 LOST ABC 3.38 4.33 5.37 58.9% 37.1% 47.7%
6 SMALLVILLE CW 1.18 1.51 1.85 56.8% 36.2% 49.3%
7 GREY’S ANATOMY ABC 4.21 5.06 6.48 53.9% 35.0% 37.4%
8 30 ROCK NBC 2.64 3.23 4.04 53.0% 34.7% 42.1%
9 LIFE NBC 1.21 1.48 1.84 52.1% 34.2% 42.9%
10 FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS NBC 0.98 1.18 1.48 51.0% 33.8% 40.0%
11 24 FOX 2.96 3.71 4.44 50.0% 33.3% 50.7%
12 HOUSE FOX 4.00 4.89 5.98 49.5% 33.1% 44.9%
13 BONES FOX 2.54 3.03 3.58 40.9% 29.1% 47.1%
14 AMERICA’S TOP MODEL CW 1.45 1.73 2.03 40.0% 28.6% 48.3%
15 KINGS NBC 1.03 1.24 1.44 39.8% 28.5% 51.2%
16 ONE TREE HILL-MON CW 1.02 1.23 1.42 39.2% 28.2% 52.5%
17 HELL’S KITCHEN FOX 2.81 3.35 3.91 39.1% 28.1% 49.1%
18 BIG BANG THEORY CBS 3.00 3.72 4.16 38.7% 27.9% 62.1%
19 PRIVATE PRACTICE ABC 3.15 3.53 4.33 37.5% 27.3% 32.2%
20 SCRUBS-WED 8PM ABC 1.87 2.18 2.57 37.4% 27.2% 44.3%

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The 18-49 Demo Increase From DVR Viewing ranks which of the Top 150 broadcast shows [by Live+7 viewers] had the % of increase in viewing by DVR in their adults 18-49 Live+7 audience numbers from viewers watching shows later on their digital video recorders (DVRs).
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Largest DVR Audiences for Broadcast TV Shows:


Rank Programs Net  Persons Live (000s)  Persons Live+SD (000s)  Persons Live+7 (000s)  Same Day DVR Viewers (000s)  Total DVR Viewers (000s)  % of All Viewing By DVR % of DVR Viewing On Airdate
1 AMERICAN IDOL-TUE FOX  18,654  21,940  23,534  3,286  4,880 20.7% 67.3%
2 GREY’S ANATOMY ABC  12,908  14,673  17,249  1,765  4,341 25.2% 40.7%
3 HOUSE FOX  11,296  13,188  15,411  1,892  4,115 26.7% 46.0%
4 AMERICAN IDOL-WED FOX  21,209  23,745  25,093  2,536  3,884 15.5% 65.3%
5 LOST ABC  7,763  9,444  11,433  1,681  3,670 32.1% 45.8%
6 OFFICE NBC  6,472  8,114  9,911  1,642  3,439 34.7% 47.7%
7 24 FOX  9,692  11,376  13,091  1,684  3,399 26.0% 49.5%
8 DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES ABC  13,093  14,756  16,320  1,663  3,227 19.8% 51.5%
9 MENTALIST, THE CBS  14,297  15,499  17,476  1,202  3,179 18.2% 37.8%
10 NCIS CBS  14,588  15,851  17,376  1,263  2,788 16.0% 45.3%
11 CRIMINAL MINDS CBS  12,769  13,751  15,268  982  2,499 16.4% 39.3%
12 BONES FOX  9,389  10,529  11,775  1,140  2,386 20.3% 47.8%
13 30 ROCK NBC  6,212  7,181  8,547  969  2,335 27.3% 41.5%
14 PRIVATE PRACTICE ABC  9,063  9,816  11,385  753  2,322 20.4% 32.4%
15 TWO AND A HALF MEN CBS  13,123  14,128  15,356  1,005  2,233 14.5% 45.0%
16 BIG BANG THEORY CBS  8,356  9,691  10,478  1,335  2,122 20.3% 62.9%
17 DANCING WITH THE STARS ABC  19,888  21,251  21,928  1,363  2,040 9.3% 66.8%
18 HELL’S KITCHEN FOX  6,629  7,571  8,620  942  1,991 23.1% 47.3%
19 LAW AND ORDER:SVU NBC  10,324  10,765  12,303  441  1,979 16.1% 22.3%
20 HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER CBS  8,129  9,293  10,051  1,164  1,922 19.1% 60.6%

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The Largest DVR Audiences ranks which of the Top 150 broadcast shows [by Live+7 viewers] had the largest number average viewers by DVR in their Live+7 audience numbers from viewers watching shows later on their digital video recorders (DVRs).
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Greatest % Of DVR Viewing for Broadcast TV Shows:


Rank Programs Net  Persons Live (000s)  Persons Live+SD (000s)  Persons Live+7 (000s)  Same Day DVR Viewers (000s)  Total DVR Viewers (000s)  % of All Viewing By DVR % of DVR Viewing On Airdate
1 GOSSIP GIR CW  1,820  2,334  2,788  514  968 34.7% 53.1%
2 OFFICE NBC  6,472  8,114  9,911  1,642  3,439 34.7% 47.7%
3 LOST ABC  7,763  9,444  11,433  1,681  3,670 32.1% 45.8%
4 TERMINATOR: SARAH CNR CHRONICLES FOX  3,290  3,733  4,687  443  1,397 29.8% 31.7%
5 SMALLVILLE CW  2,881  3,496  4,093  615  1,212 29.6% 50.7%
6 DOLLHOUSE FOX  3,591  4,142  5,066  551  1,475 29.1% 37.4%
7 LIFE NBC  3,801  4,304  5,360  503  1,559 29.1% 32.3%
8 30 ROCK NBC  6,212  7,181  8,547  969  2,335 27.3% 41.5%
9 HOUSE FOX  11,296  13,188  15,411  1,892  4,115 26.7% 46.0%
10 24 FOX  9,692  11,376  13,091  1,684  3,399 26.0% 49.5%
11 REAPER CW  1,741  1,965  2,348  224  607 25.9% 36.9%
12 ONE TREE HILL CW  2,070  2,421  2,788  351  718 25.8% 48.9%
13 GREY’S ANATOMY ABC  12,908  14,673  17,249  1,765  4,341 25.2% 40.7%
14 AMERICA’S TOP MODEL CW  3,267  3,791  4,333  524  1,066 24.6% 49.2%
15 FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS NBC  3,365  3,830  4,462  465  1,097 24.6% 42.4%
16 HELL’S KITCHEN FOX  6,629  7,571  8,620  942  1,991 23.1% 47.3%
17 LIFE ON MARS ABC  4,656  4,995  5,992  339  1,336 22.3% 25.4%
18 SUPERNATURAL CW  3,108  3,388  3,940  280  832 21.1% 33.7%
19 AMERICAN IDOL-TUE FOX  18,654  21,940  23,534  3,286  4,880 20.7% 67.3%
20 PRIVATE PRACTICE ABC  9,063  9,816  11,385  753  2,322 20.4% 32.4%

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The % of Total viewing by DVR table ranks which of the Top 150 broadcast shows [by Live+7 viewers] had thelargest % of viewing by DVR in their Live+7 audience numbers from viewers watching shows later on their digital video recorders (DVRs).

Definitions:

DVR (Time-shifted) Viewing – Program ratings for national sources are produced in three streams of data –LiveLive+Same Day (Live+SD) and Live+7 Day. Time shifted figures account for incremental viewing that takes place with DVRs which are currently in approximately 24.4% of all U.S. TV households. Live+Same Day(Live+SD) include viewing during the same broadcast day as the original telecast, with a cut-off of 3:00AM local time when meters transmit daily viewing to Nielsen for processing. Live+7 Day ratings include incremental viewing that takes place during the 7 days following a telecast.

Same Day DVR Viewers - How many people watched the show on their DVRs prior to 3AM the day following the airdate,

DVR Viewers - How many people watched the show on their DVRs within 7 days following the airdate

% of All Viewing By DVR - Of the total viewing of that particular episode, what percentage was done via DVR.

% of DVR Viewing On Airdate - Of the DVR viewing of that particular episode, what percentage was done prior to 3AM the day following the airdate.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data:©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

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37 Responses to “Terminator, Dollhouse Get Big 18-49 Demo DVR Boosts”

  1. Stacy says:

    So Supernatural’s Live ratings beat Smallville’s Live ratings? That’s pretty cool, also both GG and OTH Live + 7 ratings were below Supernatural’s and Smallville’s live ratings. I know it doesn’t matter since everything got renewed anyway, but still it annoys me how much publicity Gossip Girl get when Supernatural barely gets any. And I don’t even have anything against Gossip Girl, the only reason I don’t watch it is because it comes on at a bad time for me.

    I’m happy to see Lost get good Live + 7 demos ratings. I’m very curious to see how next season and expectedly the series finale do.

  2. Shem says:

    In England, rather than having to use DVR, there are +1 channels, where the shows are delayed by an hour. That would be great esp. when American Idol and dANCING WITH Stars clash. The positive thing i see in that is the Networks don’t lose as much money with the forwarding through commercials and all. So what are people’s views?

  3. The big news for TSCC is the leaked finale script.

    Denials – or more precisely, “non-denial denials” – rage furiously between the writers and Fox’s mouthpiece Hadley and Lanie Grace, while TSCC fans froth at the mouth and accuse me of actually BEING Lanie Grace (until the Fox moderator had enough and locked that thread)!

    LOL!

    Apparently someone is trying to shop TSCC elsewhere and needs buzz, so they recruited Lanie.

    Stay tuned. Only four days until the reality.

  4. hagi says:

    actually i m sure the only person ho is trying to stop TSCC is Richard Steven Hack, who continuously attacks the show with false claims…

    anyway:

    Josh Friedman, the producer of TSSC, said io9 that the leaked finale script is BullS..
    link:

    http://io9.com/5201455/ghostbusters-3-will-be-character+driven-but-not-hellish

    “A few people have pointed me to this alleged leaked synopsis of the season finale, which is from the same site that posted that widely debunked cancellation rumor. Anyway, just to make sure, I asked producer Josh Friedman to confirm that this synopsis was totally fake, and he called it “absolute one hundred percent bullshit.” So there ya go.”

  5. Tim says:

    CHUCK and HEROES were in repeats this week….

  6. the128boy says:

    Bill, Thank you for posting these numbers!

    Whoa! Office only gets a 2.9 live?! Wow. 30 Rock got a 2.6.

    So basically most people that watch office live probably stick around for 30 Rock, but a lot of people that dvr the office probably don’t watch 30 rock.

    This list really provides some interesting insights into when different shows are watched/their stregnths/weaknesses/trends/etc.

    Fascinating.

  7. That’s a nice denial, but Friedman is a known spoilers hater and he would do anything to deny this as a spoiler.

    Until we see the episode, we just don’t know for sure.

    At least SOME of the stuff (the priest, for example, as well as somebody apparently being Cameron taking on a police station) is IN the official trailer for the episode, so we know the leaked script isn’t a hundred percent wrong.

    And the cancellation rumor was not “widely debunked”, but merely argued against. Again, nobody knows for sure.

    Why Fox hasn’t simply come and said, “The leaked script is fake” is telling. What’s the harm in saying something that will be proven true in four days?

    I can see Lanie Grace making this up to generate buzz for her client, but again it doesn’t do her credibility any good to be proven wrong in four days. So what’s the point?

  8. By the way, Josh Friedman has been known to lie in the past – and has admitted he will lie to the fans if necessary.

    The whole “Riley is a normal girl” thing was a straight up lie.

    Not to mention his whole “I’m ratings challenged” BS.

  9. hagi says:

    Richard, two of the writers and the producer of the show said that there is no leaked script and the script is fake… Now you want fox to deny… you never give up dont u…

    also we know that the leaked script emerged after the preview of season finale.. and there were some spoilers from the stuff.. so who wrote the “leaked” script read and saw those..

    If you donot believe the producer of the show and its writers, who denies those rumors, there is no point of arguing with you.. Good luck to you…

  10. both of you PLEASE let it go until Friday and see what happens! We’re only talking about a little over 3 days. We’ll know then and you can yak as much as you want :-)

  11. Josh says:

    if only people would watch DOLLHOUSE and TSCC on it’s air time, they would completely be ready for renewal

  12. FrankJ says:

    Those Live vs. Live+SD vs. Live+7 numbers for Office have got to have NBC fit to be tied. Doesn’t anybody in the 18-49 demo watch that show live?

  13. Frank, I don’t love the % increase metrics in general, but, it seems to be a focus. It’s misleading in many ways and I especially don’t love reflecting it versus live instead of Live+SD since we don’t post LIVE numbers anywhere else.

    It winds up painting a somewhat misleading picture unless you really look at the numbers (something our typical reader isn’t going to do!), because % increase does not equal percentage viewed. 57%+ of the Office’s 18-49 viewing was Live.

    I’m sure NBC wishes it was more, but for now, it’s at least more than half :-)

  14. Jonathan says:

    Thanks for the great article Robert Siedman, I don’t think the DVRs will make the most difference to Fox, but it’s a strong indication to a network that TSCC is on the WRONG timeslot (same for Dollhouse). If people are preferring to watch it on DVR compared to live, it means they aren’t available during the airtime.

    Also I’d like you to take notice of the fact that TSCC is being compared to shows that are not on friday. The shows that perform well on friday have a completely different demographic (such as why Ghost Whisperer is successful). If you compare it to other Fox Friday shows like SmarterThan, which is also a different demographic, you could see that TSCC doesn’t perform all that badly, it’s just the wrong demographic to watch on Fridays. On Mondays it was performing better, maybe not perfectly, but that’s because it had “breaks” and no lead-in.

    http://digg.com/television/Producer_Talks_About_Sarah_Connor_s_Philosophy

    http://digg.com/television/Terminator_Sarah_Connor_Chronicles_Fox_s_Potential_Goldmine

    http://digg.com/television/How_wrong_can_Nielsen_be

  15. Jonathan, just FYI and a warning, we won’t tolerate any name calling of the nature you employed in a comment I have now deleted. Also, for future references, comments with more than one hypertext link will automatically hit our spam filter.

  16. TFan says:

    Either way you cut it, the DVR numbers for Dollhouse and T:SCC look big.

    And Richard Hack, I only saw that someone said you wrote the Fan-Fic.

    Which makes more sense.

  17. CAV says:

    I really don’t know how to read these charts, and really don’t know what these numbers mean, but I know the show(terminator) performs poorly, and in this instance its near the top of the list, so thats good right?

  18. Cav, no, not really. Overall, relatively speaking not many watch Terminator: TSCC, but its DVR numbers are pretty good for a show with its low viewing totals. It had 500,000 less DVR viewers than How I Met Your Mother, but How I Met Your Mother had 5 million more overall Live+7 viewers.

  19. Chad says:

    So it’s just an exceptionally bad night for the scifi/action audience. Did Fox expect Terminator and Whedon fans to all be home on Fridays? I never thought either crowd was exceptionally geeky, like someone who watches Star Trek or even Stargate.

    I hope the Friday night project of theirs is dead and buried after this failure. I’d hate to see Fringe go from following AI, to the Friday night graveyard just to fill in the gaps.

  20. Chandra says:

    Well, I’m so glad I read this post and found out about the fmqinc article referenced above by Richard. You see that chart with the ratings comparison of Ghost Whisperer, Terminator, and Dollhouse in the middle of the post? All mine! Whoever writes the blog didn’t change anything but the color scheme! Should I sue or be flattered? ;D

    Richard, if you are Lanie Grace or whoever, please either construct your own charts, change the code you “borrow” more convincingly, or provide a link back to the blog you lifted it from, which is GrrlTV[dot]com/ratings-report-terminator-and-dollhouse-tie-it-up/. If you’re not, my apologies.

  21. I accept your apologies, Chandra!

    Sure, Robert, we can leave it until Friday. It’s going to be fun, though!

    But for the record, I did not write the fan-fic (and wouldn’t write anything that crappy!), not did I even hear of Lanie Grace until somebody on a thread here pointed to the leaked script story last Saturday.

    Needless to add, I hope, I’m also not Lanie Grace!

  22. Alamo says:

    Bah I dont even know what those rankings above mean. I just hope TerminatorSCC isnt canceled.

    Well… until friday guys, Ive got a feeling that knowing this might be the end the writers got us some SHOCKING finale, no matter who dies, who survives its gonna be great!

  23. wiesengrund says:

    How do you come up with said percentages? Looking at DOLLHOUSE I see 1.475 million DVR viewers out of a total of 5.066 Live+7 viewers. That’s around 29%, not 41.1%.

  24. Bill Gorman says:

    wiesengrund, the first chart is not millions of viewers, it is adults 18-49 ratings points.

    Dollhouse went from a Live 18-49 rating of 1.25 to a Live+7 rating of 2.03. So, 0.78 ratings points was the total viewing by DVR. So, the % of viewing by DVR is 0.78/2.03 = 38.4%. The increase was 0.78/1.25 = 62.4%

  25. wiesengrund says:

    I totally see that, but I was talking about the third chart, where it reads:

    6 DOLLHOUSE FOX 3,591 4,142 5,066 551 1,475 41.1% 37.4%

    And I did wonder where that 41.1% come from. But now I figured it out: The chart is organized differently than in previous weeks. The order of Live, Live+SD and Live+7 was reversed and the “% of All Viewing by DVR” now seems to be dividing DVR viewers/Live viewers, instead of DVR viewers/Live+7 viewers (as it did the weeks before).

  26. Bill Gorman says:

    wiesengrund, you’re correct about the order. I will add that to the post.

    Also, the first table has a slightly different set of columns than the second and third, since “number of viewers” doesn’t apply when all I have is ratings points, and I thought “greatest number of ratings points increased” was getting a bit too far into the weeds.

  27. wiesengrund says:

    And looking tat it that way: If the table was automatically generated, than it was the change of ordering the three absolute number columns that forced the change of percentages. You might wanna fix that since that table now says something completely different than all the others before it. Basically, the “The % of Total viewing by DVR table ranks which of the Top 150 broadcast shows [by Live+7 viewers] had thelargest % of viewing by DVR in their Live+7 audience numbers from viewers watching shows later on their digital video recorders (DVRs).”-line doesn’t make any sense anymore.

  28. Bill Gorman says:

    wiesengrund, I think the description of the final table is still correct, as are the numbers. However, I did see that I’d lost the description of the second table and failed to put a description in for the first table, which I have added.

  29. wiesengrund says:

    Well, you are talking about “the largest % of viewing by DVR in their Live+7 audience numbers”, while the percentage in the “% of All Viewing By DVR”-column is not. The percentages in that column reflects the largest % of viewing by DVR in their Live audience numbers, not their Live+7 numbers. Now, I don’t know if that information in itself is interesting (I mean…. what does it say about a show?), but it is certainly not matched by the description and definitely not comparable to the same charts you had there the weeks before.

  30. wiesengrund says:

    (Not wanting to be overly judgmental or piss anybody off, sorry if I came across like that. I just keep a close eye on Dollhouse’s numbers, and that new column felt strange…)

  31. ljo says:

    “Note that I have also changed the order of the three measured viewing columns from past posts (to ease the production process). Live viewing is first and Live+7 viewing is third. That’s the opposite of the way it used to be.”

    Bill, I think wiesengrund’s point is that when you changed the order of the columns, you didn’t change your formula for calculating “% of All Viewing by DVR” (talking about the third table). You’re now dividing DVR Viewers by Persons Live rather than Persons Live+7 as you have in the tables from previous weeks.

  32. Bill Gorman says:

    ljo, wiesengrund, you are both correct and I’m sorry I didn’t see that mistake earlier, even when it was pointed out to me! I kept looking at the first table, which was correct, and not the others which were wrong.

    I have corrected the tables now.

  33. Shem says:

    What percentage of American household’s have DVR?

  34. Mike W. says:

    Yeah when Fox moved Terminator to Friday it messed up my friday because I do other shit on that day rather than watch TV, so I usually ended up recording it for Saturday afternoons…I really think that’s what most people do, recording it for later on. That just undeniably means it’s in a bad slot. Put it on Monday again, or Tuesday since that night is a wasteland (at least until The History Channel’s ‘Life After People’ starts. I’m not too hip on Tuesday being such a dead night…I thought Friday was toilet TV day?

  35. Joseph H says:

    What happened to this week’s DVR numbers update?

  36. didn’t get any data this week.

  37. miranda says:

    what? how did you not get data? did nielsen take a holiday or is it going to be delayed? or will you get two lots next week?


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