In Bill’s absence, I’m doing some network-by-network summaries. Yesterday, I took a look at NBC, where, because of the situation with the Jay Leno show, there is quite a bit of uncertainty for quite a few shows.
The situation at ABC is different, where there seems to be a whole lot more certainty, and little left to guess at. Here’s the rundown of renew and cancel decisions for ABC that have already been made:
| Network | Already Canceled | Already Renewed |
| ABC | According to Jim (final season) | Ugly Betty |
| ABC | Eli Stone | Brothers & Sisters |
| ABC | Pushing Daisies | Grey’s Anatomy |
| ABC | Scrubs (final season) | Lost |
| ABC | Dirty Sexy Money | Desperate Housewives |
| ABC | Boston Legal | |
| ABC | Life on Mars |
While there are seven scripted shows where no decision has been announced yet, as sure as the sun rises in the east, you can count on Private Practice coming back. But how to segment the rest. Note: there haven’t been any official announcements made on any of these shows, they are merely predictions based on numbers:
| Network | Won’t be renewed | Will be renewed | Not Sure Yet |
| ABC | In the Motherhood | Private Practice | Samantha Who? |
| ABC | Cupid | Surviving Suburbia | |
| ABC | Castle | Better off Ted | |
| ABC | The Unusuals |
Let’s start with Samantha Who? and Surviving Suburbia which is the only thing to have survived the CW’s ill-fated partnership with MRC for its Sunday night programming. But first a general disclaimer about 30 minute sitcoms: both the networks and studios seem to play faster and looser with 30 minute comedies than one hour scripted dramas. Studios discount them and networks like them for a variety of reasons ranging from syndication revenue, to something fairly inexpensive to throw under the bus against American Idol.
And now a huge disclaimer, just based on the numbers alone, we would never have predicted According to Jim would be back for another season. But it was back for another season!
Surviving Suburbia
We only have two data points, but so far, the ratings for Surviving Suburbia have been pretty decent. But it’s had the benefit of the Dancing With the Stars Lead in. In its premiere a week ago, Suburbia bowed with a 3.0 rating, good enough to rank 25th with adults 18-49 for the week. In preliminary number for its second airing last night, it averaged a 2.8 with adults 18-49. The big question remains whether that will keep eroding and, even if it doesn’t, how does ABC think it would do without the DWTS lead-in.
Update: stripped of its 2 minute-ish DWTS overrun, SS drew a 2.6 adults 18-49 in last night’s fina ratings. Down 13% from its premiere last week.
Samantha Who?
While much-loved by critics, it’s a show that had always been propped up by its Dancing With the Stars lead-in. But because of schedule jockeying, ABC won’t have to guess at how Samantha Who does without the DWTS lead-in. Last week airing on Thursday at 8pm, with no lead-in it averaged a 1.4 rating with adults 18-49, ranking 66th among broadcast shows for the week with adults 18-49. These are normally numbers where we’d definitively guess CANCEL. But, it’s sitcom, one with some critical praise and one the network seems to love. But it doesn’t look like it can stand on its own.
Better off Ted
I was pretty much torn down the middle of sticking this in the “Not Sure Yet” column. It probably would’ve been the fair thing to do. Bill has been calling for its death, but I’m starting to wonder if it’s the next According to Jim. Plus, it has received a little critical praise, and it fared much better than Samantha Who? last week, pulling a 1.7 rating with adults 18-49, to finish 59th among all broadcast shows for the week. In fairness, it should probably be in the “Not Sure Yet” column, but nobody ever said life is fair. But despite my categorization, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see ABC play fast and loose and bring it back. Ah, screw it, I’ve talked myself into putting in the “Not Sure Yet” column.
Ok, now on to the list of shows we think ABC will cancel:
In the Motherhood
It did even worse than Sam Who last week, with a 1.3 adults 18-49 rating and 69th among all broadcast shows in the 18-49 demographic for the week. That’s not really much different than Samantha Who’s numbers, but ABC doesn’t have any history with the shows, it hasn’t gotten any critical praise, and, ABC already cut its order for the show in half. Even though it too is a sitcom, it won’t be back.
Scrubs
It appears that the move from NBC to ABC (not surprising after NBC canceled it that ABC would pick it up since its produced by ABC Studios) it looks like ABC just wanted to pad its syndication revenues with some extra shows. But this looks to be the final season. The show’s creator was quoted in a speech saying this was the last season. Then he backtracked after the network gave him the “please don’t say crap like that!” speech. If not for him saying it’s the last season, I’d probably have this in the Not Sure Yet column.
Cupid
Cupid is toast. It ranked 61st last week with adults 18-49. Yes, that’s better than Samantha Who?, but unfortunately for Cupid fans, networks don’t play so fast and loose with more expensive one hour scripted dramas where a 1.6 rating with adults 18-49 means…no renewal.
Castle
Over the weekend a friend of mine told me she like this show, and knowing about this blog (but not actually READING it) asked me what I thought would happen. I winced. She noticed, and her response was “Noooo!”. I suspect there are many who share that sentiment. But, I’m wincing even more now. Last week Castle was 41st overall with a 2.3 rating. If it were on NBC, maybe. But a.) it’s not on NBC and b.) it keeps going down. In preliminary numbers for last night it had a 2.0 rating with adults 18-49. The trend isn’t it’s friend and I don’t think ABC would consider bringing it back if it can’t consistently pull 2.5 ratings. But at a 2.0, there’s no way the network brings it back.
Update: Monday’s final numbers are in and Castle slipped to a 1.9 with 18-49s
The Unusuals
While one week of data isn’t much to go on, The Unusuals premiered with a 2.1 adults 18-49 rating. A lot of recent history suggests shows go down from their premieres, not up. I’m not expecting The Unusuals to buck that trend. But, we’ll see.
Where’s The Unusuals?
I knew I forgot something! It’s there now.
Bummer, I didn’t know Castle was doing so badly. I hope it recovers, although I know that’s unlikely.
I’m shocked that you think BoT even has a chance.
David, but you’re not shocked I think it with Samantha Who? and Surviving Suburbia? How would BoT do if it followed DWTS? It’s already doing better than ATJ and Scrubs regardless, and at this point nothing a network (at least in the cases of ABC and FOX) would do with regard to a sitcom would surprise me much.
Far be it from me to criticize the master, but it’s pretty silly to put The Unusuals in the definitely not coming back column after one week. Sure it will *probably* end up in that column, but using one data point to conclusively say that is ludicrous. The Unusuals is inconclusive right now.
Wow, from a certain point of view ABC is in trouble. They might not have any freshman shows coming back, and only one sophmore show might see a third season. All of their hits are 5 years+
I suspect Surviving Suburbia is going to be Samantha Who? version 2.0 (only without the love of the critics). Basically it’ll do ok with a Dancing lead-in but the second ABC move it away from that things will likely fall apart. Whether after that it can then become According To Jim version 2.0 remains to be seen.
As far as the rest of the ABC line up goes, they’re pretty much screwed. Part of me would like to see Castle back because I think its getting better with every episode but after this weeks numbers I’m giving up the ghost on that. And that means ABC’s hopes rest on The Unusuals… oh dear?
Chief, I’m sure I’ll be right, sure enough to bet you $5,000. That doesn’t mean I will be right mind you, but I’m equally sure you don’t think it’s so ludicrous that you would bet $5,000 I will be wrong. That, I am 100% sure of. The Unusuals not being renewed I’m only 99% sure of.
I think you have a problem with two things:
1. to classify it that way with only one data point
2. the notion that these things can even be predicted based one one data point.
I don’t have any problem with either of those, and since it will be right, I don’t think it’s a ludicrous prediction at all. Again, if that offends your sensibilities, it’s for reasons other than that you think The Unusuals actually has any chance.
I’m sorry but Castle is definitely gone with a 1.9 and Better Off Ted is not sure yet with a 1.7? Either they should both be in the Not Sure Yet column or both in the Definitely Gone column.
i really do think ABC will bring back castle and how do you know the Unusuals wont last? there has been only 1 episode!
Michael, you don’t take into account that ABC looks at 30 minute sitcoms differently than hour long dramas. I am taking that into account. Heavily.
Chris, my crystal ball knows!
I think Surviving Surbubia has a shot of coming back but I’m not sure if ABC would cancel all their midseason shows, they always bring back one or two for the fall.
Better Off Ted’s Andrea Anders just got cast in a CBS comedy pilot… Kinda proves that BoT won’t be renewed
Eh, it’s just the principle of the thing Robert!
I don’t think it will be back either, but unless the demo is, I don’t know, under 1 I don’t see how it can be included in the definitely not back list based on one episode’s numbers.
Chief, my line right now is that scripted shows (edit: scripted one hour dramas) that premiere with less than a 2.3 can be called immediately. It takes longer with shows like Castle that start out well above a 2.3, or even Life on Mars. But it didn’t take that long with The Unusuals.
Chmarin, that proves nothing other than Andrea is a smart lady who isn’t leaving her fate up to chance. It’s pretty well documented that sort of thing has happened before and not meant that a show wasn’t renewed.
Don’t get me wrong. I don’t think Ted will be renewed or should be renewed. But I don’t think Samantha Who should be either based on numbers.
ABC is looking to be in serious Doodoo. I think the unusuals should have been in the “not certain yet” category.
I didn’t expect “Better off Ted” to have any hope, but looking at recent numbers it does make sense. Still, I’d say it’s unlikely.
I think “Surviving Suburbia” will survive, and Samantha Who? will be forgotten.
The Unusuals has only just premiered and yes it will go down but what about the fact ABC has to remember that no one watches a show after LOST. I do think it should be in the maybe pile.
im really tired of everyone on here bad mouthing the ABC shows saying that they should be cancelled while saying Chuck on NBC should be renewed when it is doing just as bad as Cupid and Castle is doing better than it in total viewers and household ratings. I mean get real here. I have nothing against Chuck, and i dont want it cancelled. the only reason why ABC shows are in danger is because people are too busy watching CBS when there are other networks!
Robert, I appreciate your point about half-hour sitcoms vs. hour-long dramas but two points: 1) Single camera comedies cost more per minute than dramas 2) come Emmy season, ABC’s comedies are hour-long dramas. Single-cams are too expensive to be an ATJ though I also think SUBURBIA may be too cheap for a broadcast network.
ABC has not had a hit comedy in years and by mixing single with multi the network is now at a crossroads: they can go the ATJ road with SUBURBIA or the NBC road with SAM WHO and BoT. Unfortunately for critics, the former is a lot cheaper than the latter.
Personally, I loved the premiere of the Unusuals. Unfortunately, I’m not optimistic about its future. Nearly, every show I enjoy has been or will be canceled. I have only Lost and Damages left at this point; my two favorite shows are either canceled or will soon be cancelled; I do watch Chuck on Hulu occasionally and I will be sad for Chuck fans if it’s canceled, but I won’t really miss it.
If I had my own personal genie, two of my wishes would be: 1) No more ratings services period (based on the way Nielsen samples and the errors they’ve made in the past, I really don’t trust them. If there were no way to determine viewership maybe a few more decent shows would still be around; and 2) American Idol along with several other “reality shows” would be canceled.
My third wish should be obvious.
Chris, I can’t speak for fans of shows, but I didn’t see any comments here (I might have missed it/them) that implied shows should be canceled for anything other than ratings. Don’t take my saying Castle and Cupid will be canceled as any commentary on their quality whatsoever.
Chuck is a bubble show compared to Castle though. Last night, Chuck out-rated castle, so Chuck has mediocre numbers on a network where mediocre is average, and Castle had even more mediocre numbers on a network that’s average isn’t mediocre. It’s a very different landscape. If Chuck were on ABC pulling the numbers it gets, I think its fate would be more certain. But, it’s on NBC.
I actually like Castle more than The Mentalist (which is a big hit for CBS). So far, I enjoy both the stories and acting on Castle. However, I find many of the stories on The Mentalist bore me even though the acting is very good. I’m really sorry to see Castle go.
Chris they’re on different channels so its different circumstances for Chuck and Castle
killerTV, you make some good and interesting points. generally speaking I agree single cam cost more than multi, I’m not sure I agree across the board that the per minute costs of single cams are more expensive per minute than the dramas. I understand that since the expense is across fewer minutes, etc, but I’d be pretty surprised if a minute of The Office cost more to produce than one minute of Kings even factoring in that with its “hit” status, the Office’s cast/writers are very well compensated.
Show by show, episode by episode production costs would be fun to see, but I’m not holding my breath.
Unfortunately I don’t think we’ll ever see those budget numbers and I didn’t mean to make a blanket statement – I think KINGS certainly costs more per minute than THE OFFICE. A more interesting comparison, though, is SAM WHO vs. UGLY BETTY. Both get Emmy nods for comedy, have critically acclaimed female leads, and currently are fighting for the same time slot. UGLY went to NYC for the tax credits and it has to be a (relatively) low-cost show now – the question is what would its cost be compared to SAM WHO + another 1/2 hr (for argument’s sake, let’s say MOTHERHOOD).
Anyways, I always love the opportunity to discuss. Thanks for the great site
Castle final numbers are 1.9 in the demo, and 7.279M viewers. Watching it’s numbers it’s like watching limbo dancing, how low can they go?
yeah, I’m sure we’ll never see those numbers either. Indeed your SW vs. UB comparison is much more interesting. Plus, no mtter how you’d slice it UB has a better cost/ratings point than SW at 8pm on Thursday. I’m sure that played into UB already being renewed.
Robert, as much as I understand your reasoning for putting Better Off Ted in the maybe column, I think you are wrong here. The big difference between Better Off Ted and Samantha Who? and According to Jim is the studio. ATJ and SW? are both produced by ABC. BOT is a FOX show.
The other thing I think needs to be taken into consideration is that ABC has 14 half hour comedy pilots. That’s more than any other network by at least 6. Better Off Ted is dead.
That’s really too bad about Castle, but I’m shocked (in a good way!) to see Better Off Ted in the maybe column! I love that show, but I’d pretty much accepted it’s defeat after it’s first episode.
I disagree. I beleive Castle will return, just because its ABC’s confidence midseason series. Besides not even ABC would cancel all of their first year dramas. Heres my list
Definitely not Returning (New Midseason series)
Cupid (Even with DWTS lead in the show is performing similiar to axed Eli Stone)
The Unusuals (It premiered above Life on Mars but ratings likely to sink)
Better off Ted (I Like the show but dying veteran Scrubs is bringing it down)
In the Motherhood (Performing Badly on thursdays and episode order cut)
Likely to Return (Midseason series)
Surviving Suburbia (Comedy Performing Moderately well)
Castle (ABC’s “confidence” midseason show) (What About Brian, October Road, Eli Stone)
While not yet renewed, Private Practice will likely return in the post Grey’s Anatomy thursday slot (Best thing ABC did for the series) Despite low ratings Samantha Who? will also likely return. While my list shows Better off Ted on the Axed list, I wouldn’t be surprised if the series got a second season. It wouldn’t be the first time ABC renewed a low rated comedy because they had nothing else. (Remember, Notes from the Underbelly) I like Ted so I’m hoping it will come back. Everything else has either been renewed or already cancelled.
Remember Castle’s numbers may look bad, but everyone has to keep in mind, that Almost all of ABC’s freshman and sophomore dramas have already been axed. With so many dramas already cancelled, I’m verry confident that Castle will get a second year, probably in the 10pm monday slot. Its only competition would basically be CSI: Miami.
Dan, wanting it to return and believing it will return are two different things. ABC has apparently already lost confidence in it — it didn’t even mention it in its Monday night press release where they will most always find anything possible to spin (comparisons to a year ago, retention, something…but, they got nothing).
Castle’s numbers don’t just look bad. They are bad, and getting worse. Your level of faith and confidence while the cancellation fires burn strong around you are admirable though : )
P.S. given the “strike season” I don’t buy that ABC will feel the need to bring at least one new drama back. They’ll chalk it up to a screwy strike/development season and move on.
Robert, would the fact that Ted’s 18-34 numbers are significantly better than the Thursday comedies would also be a check in it’s favor?
I completely agree with your predictions. Private Practice is definitely coming back. It’s the only show on less than 4 years that has had decent ratings and it’s the only show not to crash and burn after Grey’s Anatomy and most of those shows premiered when Grey’s Anatomy was getting an even larger audience.
I also think Surviving Suburbia will be back. Since the rumor is that ABC wants more comedies, this show seems to be exactly what they are looking for to build a comedy block around. Not sure how good it would do without DWTS as a lead-in, but it’s possible it could do just fine on its own.
the128boy, though the differences there were notable, I didn’t really consider it since The Office/Parks and Recreation were relative 18-34 sponges compared to anything BoT faced off against, so it didn’t seem like a good comparison.
I think that In the Motherhood & Samantha Who? have those ratings because there’s no new episodes of Grey’s Anatomy. The premiere og ITM & the new episodes of SW? where not so comfortable because it was put vs. American Idol.
I think that when GA air some new episodes, the ratings would be bigger!
Castle shouldn’t be on at 10, it’s really not a great time slot for it. If it was on at 8 or 9 on another night I think it would get better numbers.
Robert, gotcha. I just checked the numbers from the previous Thursday, and the 18-34 ratings in relation to the 18-49 ratings were indeed much better for Motherhood/Sam against the older-skewing ER retrospective.
Though Bill’s analysis is more based on math, I like your analysis better.
Anyways: Pity Castle will be canceled. I hope it’s not on a cliff-hanger ending.
ABC will bring back one freshman series: the one that’s doing the best. It’s not exactly good if you can’t launch a show…Lost ends next year, Desperate Housewives and Grey’s Anatomy can only last so long…and that would just leave them with Dancing with the Stars. They have no real comedy hit (Samantha Who? doesn’t count since it can’t stand on it’s own), and the only competitor with no comedy hit is…the CW.
So they’ll bring the show back for one more season, to try and build viewer confidence. If their current state continues, ABC will go from where it is, to the levels of where NBC is now (NBC would be at this time where the CW is now).
NOOOOOOOOOOOO (about Castle) nooooooooooo.
The problem is the forgot the funny which made the pilot so brilliant, they focus too much on the crime solving and not enough of the funny interplay with lady cop and castle – and lets not forget the marvelous chemistry between him and his daughter/mother.
This could have had great potential, but alas they zigged when they should have zagged.
On an unrelated note it’s amazing how Lost, Desperate Housewives and Grey’s Anatomy, three of the most recognizable shows on TV all came in the same season and now ABC can barely keep a series even if it follows Dancing With the Stars.
I hope Surviving Suburbia makes it. The pilot was awful, but the last episode was not THAT bad. I don’t know how Media Rights Capital handles their business, but if ABC renews it, with some better writers it could eventually turn into a decent program.
Well I have been one of the ones in the Castle will be renewed camp, but after seeing the numbers eroding I am starting to rethink this. ABC really is starting to look like NBC and that’s not a good thing. It looks like ABC is really trying to get a hit comedy with all the comedy pilots that they have ordered. I know they wont be picking up all of them, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the keep Surviving Suburbia, and either Samantha Who or Better off Ted ( but not both!) just to have some kind of foundation to built a real comedy block. I think that is the real reason ABC comedies don’t do well, if you look at the other networks success with comedies they all have a block of them. You could argue that Scrubs and Better off Ted were a comedy block but Scrubs really didn’t have anymore room to grow an audience, so Better off Ted suffered from that. The block of Samantha Who and Motherhood never really stood a chance (the fact that Samantha Who dropped so horribly is the reason I think that either it of Better off Ted will be given another season and Ted gets a slight edge) I still think that ABC should try a Friday night comedy block like they used to have with TGIF, but with a more adult comedy lineup.
Tommy, I think a comedy block on Fridays like TGIF would be a great idea. On Friday they wouldn’t be expected to bring in such big numbers and if they put on the right shows, they have a chance at success. CBS seems to be doing well with their dramas on Fridays, so why not do a comedy block on ABC.
dvikib, I agree. I had a lot of high hopes for The Mentalist but the stories really haven’t improved over the season. I mostly enjoy it now simply for the cast. Castle, otoh, seems to have better writing and I enjoy the witty banter more. I have to wonder how they would be doing if their positions were reversed.
Call me crazy, but I really think Castle is going to slip stick around next year. ABC has an entire night open (Wednesday) and if they want to continue trying to make it more of a male-centric night (wise considering they’ve got 5 female-centric nights at the moment) a show with mixed gender appeal like Castle may fit the bill. The also need a placeholder in the Lost slot until February. We may see another half-season of Castle. It seems to have ABC’s support unlike Cupid and Unusuals which seemed DOA.
Robert,
I have just about had it with network TV. Every single show that I have enjoyed or much less FALLEN IN LOVE WITH has been cancelled. I absolutely loved Pushing Daisies. And Life On Mars had begun working it’s way into the depths of my heart. Moonlight was the biggest slap in the face. These are just the shows that I miss the most. And the ONLY ONE of these that I can tell you the names of every character, both staring and guest appearances, is Moonlight.
I know that there are several of Moonlight’s production team are working on Castle, including Gabrielle Stanton and Harry Werksman producing. I am afraid this is going to be one more time we get our hearts ripped out!!! I don’t know how many more times I am willing to have this happen. There is always HBO, Starz and NetFlix
Robert, I just think with the large amount of disappointments this year from ABC, that Castle could be considered for renewal. I agree with you that the numbers are getting worse, but they still aren’t nearly as bad as ABC’s other cancelled series. Eli Stone, Pushing Daisies, Dirty Sexy Money, Life on Mars, and soon to be cancelled Cupid and The Unusuals all are doing worse. Its not so much that I want Castle to come back, I just think realistically, ABC will only bring it back, as a vote of confidence (meaning the show didn’t do that great but hopefully it will do better next year). Rob, though numbers mean a lot, whether a show gets renewed or axed also depends on the network. If these midseason ABC shows aired on CBS then they would all be axed by now, but since its ABC, I think they will save atleast 1 show from being axed. And also ABC doesn’t have as many returning dramas on their schedule as they did last year. Just Lost, Desperate Housewives, Grey’s Anatomy, Ugly Betty, Brothers & Sisters, and Private Practice. 5 of which are returning in the fall and Lost midseason.
As far as the fall schedule is concerned, My prediction is Sundays and Thursdays will likely remain unchanged (Sun: AFHV, EMHE, DH, B&S) (Thurs: UB, GA, PP) Mondays will have Dancing with the Stars from 8-9:30 with a comedy airing 9:30-10. IF ABC brings Castle back, its likely the series will air 10 on Mondays in the same slot. Tuesdays will start with either a reality series or comedy duo at 8 followed by Dancing with the stars results show at 9, and probably a new drama at 10. Anything is possible for Wednesdays and Fridays so I’m not even gonna try to guess. I just hope ABC has a better year in 2009-2010, or they will be in trouble. I’d say Castle is 50/50 depending on how good ABC’s drama pilots are for next year and it wouldn’t surprise me if ABC axed it.
I really like Cupid. It’s a cute, clean story. We need something instead of all the violence and some of the stupid reality shows. Why can’t viewers enjoy a show without guns and blood.
but they still aren’t nearly as bad as ABC’s other cancelled series. Eli Stone, Pushing Daisies, Dirty Sexy Money, Life on Mars, and soon to be cancelled Cupid and The Unusuals all are doing worse.
Castle is not too far off and it hasn’t stopped dropping yet. Last night’s episode garnered a 1.9. DSM bottomed out with a 1.7, PD with 1.6. Eli Stone did hit a 1.2, but that was on 12/30, when everything else was on hiatus. A few dips aside, LOM was hovering around 1.9, 2.0 after its move to Wednesday. While I have no doubt it will drop this week, The Unusuals premiered at a 2.1, which is worse than Castle’s premiere but still better than the last two weeks.
How many total viewers did Castle get last night? I know the show is dropping but I still think ABC will keep it around until next year. Its likely to be axed after the show performs badly next year, but atleast ABC will have a renewed drama that can tide them over until hopefully they get some new dramas in for next fall. I know I seem to be over confident, but I see theres a pattern every year in terms of what happens with midseason dramas.
^Just over 7 million, but the demo means a lot more in renewal decisions.
I thought heard something somewhere(can’t remember where) That scrubs could return despite the last season rumblings. Maybe even without JD and the gang, and instead focusing on the new interns. Anyways numbers wise, it kind of makes sense.(but could go either way)
I wonder if ABC is regretting cancelling ‘Boston Legal’. Those reliable low 2 demos are looking pretty good right now a la ‘Ugly Betty’.
I published this over at Mr. Marc Berman’s site, and I am copying it over here because no one else has made this observation yet.
When retention of ‘tentpole’ 9 pm lead-in is measured, ‘Cupid’ keeps the most A18-49s watching ABC from the Monday to Wednesday ABC ‘tentpole’ series.
1st: ‘Cupid’ A18-49 Retention:
-> out of ‘DWTS’ (2x) = 61.4% 2 airings (finals)
2nd: ‘Surviving Suburbia’ A18-49 Retention:
-> out of ‘DWTS’ (2x) = 60.8% 2 airings (finals)
3rd: ‘The Unusuals’ A18-49 Retention:
-> out of ‘Lost’ (1x) = 55.2% 1 airing (finals)
4th: ‘Castle’ A18-49 Retention:
-> out of ‘DWTS’ (4x) = 50.7% 4 airings (finals)
As ABC President Mr. McPherson contemplates which of his midseason experiments is a keeper for the fall sked, there are two categories.
1. The series that have had to self-start, such as ‘Better Off Ted’ (which I completely agree with Mr. Seidman is definitely interesting and worthy of renewal consideration) and ‘In the Motherhood’.
2. The series that have been given juicy ‘tentpole’ lead-ins to retain and keep watching ABC, such as ‘Surviving Suburbia’, ‘Castle’, ‘Cupid’ or ‘The Unusuals’. In this second category, to date ‘Cupid’ has demonstrated the best A18-49 stickiness of the Monday to Wednesday tentpole lead-ins.
If I had the ear of Mr. McPherson, I would advise him to issue renewal slips to ‘Better Off Ted’ and ‘Cupid’, and let the other series slip away into obscurity.
dumont, retention doesn’t count for anything when you are pulling 1.6. Absolutely nothing at all.
Castle will survive, you guys are giving the show a hard chance to survive.
Surviving Suburbia/Samantha Who should be cancelled
thedemonhog, you are forgetting that those low 2 ratings fod Boston Legal where for a 5 year old show, with all the licensing costs associated with that, and a very expensive cast. They now look nice, but it could still mean a very red balance sheet at the end of the year. All loss with no expectation of it ever trending up. It was one of my favorite shows, but I can see the logic beyond the cancellation.
The same way I can make the case for Castle not being renewed on the steady downward trend of its demo. It is not only that the demo now is bad, it is that people that tried the show don’t come back. Last season, with a better start, and a better demo, Bionic Woman got canceled for the same reason.
Julia says:
April 15th, 2009 at 12:46 am
dumont, retention doesn’t count for anything when you are pulling 1.6. Absolutely nothing at all.
—
Well sometimes a higher rating is entirely due to being out of a higher-rated lead-in. ABC needs to give ‘Cupid’ a one-off out of either ‘DWTS Performance’ on Monday or ‘Lost’ on Wednesdays.
I’ve always thought ‘Cupid’ would flow well out of ‘Lost’, as many of the Lostie’s share an affection for Mr. Rob Thomas’s projects (‘Veronica Mars’).
NO NO No not my Castle.This ruins my Monday TV night of Chuck/Rewatch Chuck/then Castle.
To: dvikib & John T. Holden
OH,how I do agree with both your thinking….& John’s is worth repeating:
(quote)I had a lot of high hopes for The Mentalist but the stories really haven’t improved over the season. I mostly enjoy it now simply for the cast. Castle, otoh, seems to have better writing and I enjoy the witty banter more. I have to wonder how they would be doing if their positions were reversed.(unquote)
dumont, retention in one slot doesn’t translate to the same retention in another slot. Look at Life on Mars. It wasn’t getting great retention out of Grey’s, but then it moved behind Lost and got even worse retention. And I am a Rob Thomas fan, but I tried Cupid and did not like it. Lost fans being fans of Veronica Mars (which is a pretty big assumption on your part to begin with) doesn’t mean any of them will like Cupid.
S., I definitely see the logic behind its cancellation, but I also wonder if ABC would have made the same decision today.
If we’re talking quality, “Better Off Ted” is the only new ABC show that deserves renewal. If we’re talking ratings, “Surviving Suburbia.” Of course, “Suburbia” has a lead-in that people, you know, watch. “Ted” has both the best lead-in… and the worst lead-in.
“In the Motherhood” is gone (no big loss), but of the dramas may get a “What About Brian” stay of execution. Everyone thought that show was finished back in 2006, and low and behold, it rose from the dead to stink up both the airwaves and the Nielsens for another year. “Castle” got a ton of advance promotion and an overnight DVD release.
Mind you, I wouldn’t bet money on any of ABC’s new scripted shows returning, only on “True Beauty” — the closest thing they had to a hit this season.
Castle might as well be cancelled because half the time the listener can’t understand what is being said. The music is in the forefront and the voices are in the background.
Castle is NOT a 10 pm show. Never has been. Either 8 or 9 pm would be better. It reminds me of Bones (when it was new) which was doing great in the 8 pm hour but then American Idol came back and they pushed it to 10 pm. Massive ratings drop. They quickly moved it to another night at the 8 pm hour. ABC take note.
Despite being low rated, I think Better off Ted, could be in consideration for renewal. After this season, it will have 6 episodes left for next year, along with a 6-13 episode second season could make a full year. Cupid will be gone. Don’t bother looking at retention, because in the end it all comes down to what the network thinks will work out best for next year. The only reason Castle will be kept is so that ABC doesnt have to dump their full year of failures, not to mention a sophomore slump (Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone, Dirty Sexy Money) along with the ending of veteran shows (Jim, Scrubs, Boston Legal).
I think Better Off Ted was only picked up to air with Scrubs, without Scrubs next year, the show will be canceled.
Everyone also has to remember that ABC only ordered 10 episodes of Unusuals, Cupid and Castle. If the shows took off ABC would order more and possibly give them a second season. It seems ABC had low expectations for these shows from the beginning.
Lynne, considering when their seasons began, 10 episodes makes sense. They wouldn’t add any episodes to this season order, they would just renew them for second seasons. (Though I believe Cupid and The Unusuals both only have 7 episodes.)
I love this blog. I love the information. I love the fact that Robert Seidman posts so actively and defends all his predictions. I only hope that one day I will have network show so Rob can prognosticate its fate as well. I am a believer. This site is fantastic!
- Side note: Rob, is there any chance you will start an online fantasy sports-like game for television shows and ratings? Likely not, I know. Bummer.
jbs, I believe there is a game like that run by members of PIFeedback.
Castle and The Unusuals have 10 episodes, In the Motherhood and Cupid have 7 (maybe 6 for Motherhood since the order was cut in half). All of these shows originally had 13 episodes ordered, but were subsequently cut. The episode orders never should have been 13 to begin with, maybe with the exception of In the Motherhood (which was cut after the premiere). The episode orders werent cut because of bad confidence, just because of cost and not enough room on the schedule. Both Castle and Cupid will finish their runs in May while The Unusuals will burnoff its remaining episodes starting May 27. Midseason Better off Ted and Surviving Suburbia has already completed both their 13 episodes orders, which is why those shows could not be cut back. ABC has announced that Surviving Suburbia will move to May 27 to air alongside The Goode Family, to finish its first season. If the show is renewed, then its possible that the series episodes will be held until next year, and hopefully Better off Ted will burn off its remaining episodes. I think most midseason shows should get 8 episodes for their first seasons, that way if the shows do bad, they can end quickly and if they do good, production can continue and the networks won’t need to waste money.
jbs, Bravo/NBC Universal’s Television Without Pity used to run a game called TV Big Shot but stopped. I think it’s possible that we’d add such a feature someday, but someday will be the day there is a plug-in or other easy to install software that allows us to enter in the shows, and values/costs and then handles everything else (scoring, results, registrations, etc) automatically.
Why does “Samantha Who?” need to stand on its own? If it does well after “Dancing with the Stars” and is a solid companion, why not trot it out along with “Stars”?
I knew “Samantha” wouldn’t be able to stand on its own, why did ABC?
HeroesForGhosts and Kalena – I think you’re absolutely right that Castle should be on at 8 or 9PM rather than 10PM. It’s a light-hearted mystery series that would be better in the so-called family viewing hours. I also think it’s difficult for new shows to attract viewers in the spring. A lot of people I’ve talked to don’t even know there is a show called Castle (despite ads) and seem to be set in their TV viewing habits.
Larry – As far as not being able to understand the dialogue, I am partially deaf in one ear but have had no problems with Castle. I usually watch it on my cable TV. In general, when I watch shows on my portable TV with the digital box (no cable), I lose some of the words due to the digital broadcast freezing up for a few seconds off and on.
SW has to stand on its own and every show does for syndication value. There’s no point in keeping a show around that can barely perform during its network run.
I think the Castle and The Unusuals along with Surviving Suburbia are likely to return than Better off the Air Ted and Samantha Why She Still on Air?
Isn’t ABC moving SS after DWTS ends?
I think that if it can stand on its own they should air SW? after! i love that show and it deserves better ratings
I think ABC should try to air a new dramedy after DH and move B&S because it can stand on its own. And when DH is on its final season it should have a spin-off and air after DH!
Adam Goldberg of The Unusuals was on the Late Late Show last night and while he didn’t say anything about renewal or cancellation he was acting like he wasn’t sure about its fate, either, therefore The Unusuals should still go in the ‘not sure yet’ category.
But Fin is right–nobody watches the series that follows Lost because the audience is either trying to figure out what they saw, thinking about how it fits into the entire story mythology, or they’re online with others trying to do the same thing. Much like Tuesday at 8:00 and American Idol, ABC needs to look at 10:00 Wednesday as a spot to throw a series under the bus.
I have a question, why do people always say that “Samantha Who can’t stand on its own” as if its a horrible thing. Yeah, I guess it cant stand on its own, but why does it have to stand on its own? Can’t they just leave it on after DWTS and just enjoy it there? They seemed to have a pretty good combo with the ratings. I mean instead they moved it to thursdays, and put surviving suburbia after DWTS and the same thing is happening, after DWTS it does well, when DWTS isnt on it does poorly.
Besides that, maybe Samantha Who would be doing better if they hadn’t pulled it off the schedule completely, delayed its return twice, and then stuck it randomly on thursdays…when GA and PP aren’t even on right now….
I am really enjoying Castle. This is just really sad.
It’s nice to have some “lighter” TV shows like Castle & Chuck to watch. There is enough series-dark shows to watch. Furthermore, Nathan Fillion is just awesome in this series.
Jessica the reason that Samantha Who needs to prove that it can stand on its own is because if it can’t hold up in the ratings without a Dancing with the Stars crutch during it’s Network run, no one will be interested in buying the rights to it in syndication. Syndication is a cash cow for sitcoms so the networks take that into account when renewing/canceling shows.
Better off ted is a pretty darn good show ok. it deserves to come back but knowing abc it’ll just shoove it aside. its smart and funny and if u don’t like it its quite obvious u probably need a laugh track to understand when and where to laugh.abc does horrible in the comedy department so they shud keep it around at least for a bit i mean it does get some critical praise. i like sam who doh i dont watch it all the time. i love the office and if u like that u shud give bot a try. it might grow on u
I think Samantha Who should be cancel because it can’t stand on its own.
Better Off Ted and In the Motherhood are definitely goners with their demo numbers.
I like Nathan Fillion and all, but he’s really a ratings loser. He’s a good actor and he seems to have a lot of fans, but he’s like the anchor that carries shows to the bottom of the river.
I LOVE Castle and I like Cupid, too. I watched about 1/2 of the first episode of Better Off Ted and I thought it was horrible! I loved Eli Stone and Life on Mars and October Road and even Pushing Daisies. It’s sad to see the fun stuff go off the air. Soon I’ll have to find a new favorite channel. The only thing I watch that’s NOT on ABC is American Idol. They never ask me for my opinion! I wonder where the ratings actually come from!
Samantha has already shot 5 episodes for season 3
i think alot of the ABC comedies will actually be back next season will probably get at least 13 episode runs next season
Samantha Who? has its 5 episodes already shot for season 3, Better Off Ted : ABC is only airing 7 / 13 episodes this season which = a cheaper next season Motherhood will also have 1 unaired episode which will i guess will be on the DVD since i doubt that would get renewed
Perhaps people like me are to blame. I dont have cable and only watch shows online after they have been broadcast. Maybe my tastes are unusual too. But I love Chuck and Castle, Life on Mars and Terminator, Kings and Smallville. I also watch Reaper, Dollhouse Lie to Me, and House and Cupid. Sorry but that is all I could find that is of interest for the entire week’s worth of network TV. When I look thru the CBS lineup, nothing looks good. (plus Im not sure how to watch their shows online) Eliminating the shows I mentioned just reinforces my resolve not to tune in further, whenever I think of cable.
Personally, I think Life on Mars was the only show that was fair to its viewers, and did the decent thing, by giving us closure on the meaning of a series. My sense is that they pretaped a closure sequence to run whenever they had their last show, and I just wish Eli Stone did the same.
I know that I dont know all of the demo numbers etc; but I have enjoyed In The Motherhood. BoT I watch when nothing else is on, but it makes me laugh. Some more comedies are needed, that are aired around the Brothers and Sisters, Greys and PP. I’m tired of all of the reality shows etc. Bring back and keep the comedies. SS could be good if it had some better writing.
I echo your friend’s sentiments on Castle. It’s been a fun watch for the past few weeks and my husband and I will be sorry to see it go.
> Wow, from a certain point of view ABC is in trouble. They might not have any freshman shows coming back, and only one sophmore show might see a third season. All of their hits are 5 years+
I hope ABC dies a horrible death. These idiots can’t grasp that you have to find ways to capture an audience, and you don’t do that by making certain that most individuals won’t waste time with getting into a show and its characters if the nets won’t give it time to develop — and that their ATTITUDE towards a show is a good part of that development time.
When a show hovering on the cusp of cancellation with 2-3 eps aired, and friends are telling them that “Hey, it’s a good show, give it a chance” — what do you think is the chance that someone will actually do that if they think it’s toast anyway?
ZERO.
That happened two years ago with “Drive”. I pushed the show with a few friends, and one of them watched it, and said, “Yeah, wow, this IS good.” — how much attention would that have gotten then from the *other* people I recommended the show to? But it never aired again. Two whole nights is all it got. Stupid.
THAT’S HOW YOU BUILD AN AUDIENCE.
I’m personally getting really tired of giving a show time to catch my interest, then finding out it’s been cancelled after all of three to four outings. I’ve personally adopted a policy towards network shows that, for the most part, is “If it has been on for six weeks, then I *might* give it a chance.” I’ve made exceptions for some creators — Cupid and Dollhouse, for example — and might do so for some stars — but for the most part, if they think ANY new show needs “instantaneous hit numbers” to succeed and make it for a whole season, they aren’t going to be getting those from MY eyeballs.
If they aren’t willing to respect my time and attention, they don’t need it at all. There are lots of other things I can do besides couch potatoing. Games. Movies. Surfing the web. Why bother spending three hours of my life getting into a show and its characters only to have all that thrown away because Network Execs can’t figure out how to build an audience any more, and can’t be bothered to even try?
P.S. you want “smart” programming”? Put Cupid on following Pushing Daisies. THAT would be smart programming. And maybe those two after Scrubs and something else. Then ABC would have a romantic comedy night going, which might get more people actually DECIDING to watch TV instead of flipping through channels. That’s what “Must See TV” was all about. Getting people to actually DECIDE that they wanted to sit down and watch all the shows one night of the week.
ABC is soo stupid. It’s cancelling all the good shows. Castle is really good. I’m tired of watching shows and just having them cancelled. Why they hell should I watch tv? I watched Pushing Daisies and Dirty Sexy Money too but Castle did not deserve to be cancelled.
Lets see what other show you guys bring out and cancel. I’m very upset at this.
First of all, these networks aren’t thinking about what they’re putting these shows up against. I’ve never been a huge t.v. person, but I love Big Bang Theory, How I Met Your Mother, and now I’m addicted to The Mentalist, Castle, and Dollhouse as well.
The problem?–I go to work and college full time. So I dvr most of the shows I can’t catch on time.
How about they get rid of something like Survivor?–It’s on it’s, what, seventh season (which would just be sad if its actually any higher) with its same ridiculous plot and drama (my bad, on a different island)? Or what about the Bachelor? I say drop these shows and keep the ones that actually have a great story with likeable characters and actors.