I’m doing different cuts of the DVR data this week (actually, the data is for the week of 3/23-3/29, I didn’t see it until Thursday afternoon, sorry for the delays). We probably won’t move to this sort of reporting on a regular basis. This takes some time, there isn’t huge interest in it, and I’m not sure it’s what people really want to see.
However, I’m slicing this data in the ways I think it actually does mean anything, rather than the stuff people seem to want to see which while not meaningful, sometimes makes people happy. So, we’ll probably go back to happy next week.
We normally look at the shows with the most absolute DVR viewing, and the shows with the biggest viewing increases due to DVR viewing. That latter table isn’t particularly meaningful to anything, and while we don’t believe DVR viewing in general is terribly meaningful to show’s renewal prospects, we can say with great certainty that a high percentage viewing increase due to DVR viewing isn’t meaningful at all to most shows because typically the shows with the greatest increases have low overall viewing. There are exceptions, but they are for The Office which had 34% of its viewing on DVR and wound up with over 10 million viewers, and not Dollhouse, which had 29% of its viewing, but only wound up with 4.8 million total viewers.
DVR viewing is really only meaningful to the degree it changes the relative ranks of shows. The truth is, it still doesn’t change the relative ranks very much because with most shows, most people are watching LIVE. What I did in the first table below is list the shows with the highest LIVE+7 viewing totals. In other words, the regular weekly top 20, but when the full week of DVR viewing is factored in, rather than only the DVR viewing that happened on the same night.
I’ve included the live, live plus same day and live plus seven viewing numbers, as well as totaled the DVR viewing, but the first table is sorted by total viewing with DVR viewers factored in rather than the typical sorting that is sorted by the number of DVR viewers. Remember, nowhere else besides the DVR data do we ever post the Live viewing numbers. The overnight and regular weekly information is all Live+SD which includes a lot of the total DVR viewing. The same day DVR viewing ranges from about 30%-70% of the Live+7 DVR viewing depending on the show and the time slot.
Normally, we report that information, and while it is very interesting for me to see the trend of less DVR viewing on the same night as the DVR population grows, for space/readability considerations I’m leaving it out this week.
So here are the top 20 shows for the week of March 23-29 once a full week of DVR is included:
| Rank | Show | Net | Time | Live (000) | Live+SD (000) | Live+7 (000) | DVR Viewing (000) | Live+SD Rank |
| 1 | AMERICAN IDOL-WEDNESDAY | FOX | 8:00 PM | 22,652 | 26,069 | 27,325 | 4,673 | 1 |
| 2 | AMER IDL THU RSLT SP-3/26(S)-03/26/2009 | FOX | 8:00 PM | 20,041 | 23,105 | 23,921 | 3,880 | 2 |
| 3 | DANCING WITH THE STARS | ABC | 8:00 PM | 19,178 | 20,354 | 21,014 | 1,836 | 3 |
| 4 | MENTALIST, THE | CBS | 10:00 PM | 16,854 | 17,657 | 19,858 | 3,004 | 5 |
| 5 | NCIS | CBS | 9:00 PM | 16,910 | 17,864 | 19,576 | 2,666 | 4 |
| 6 | GREY’S ANATOMY-THU 9PM | ABC | 9:00 PM | 14,029 | 16,124 | 18,712 | 4,683 | 7 |
| 7 | DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 9:00 PM | 15,206 | 16,134 | 16,820 | 1,614 | 6 |
| 8 | CRIMINAL MINDS | CBS | 9:00 PM | 13,397 | 14,371 | 16,081 | 2,684 | 9 |
| 9 | CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 10:00 PM | 13,134 | 13,692 | 15,125 | 1,991 | 10 |
| 10 | 60 MINUTES | CBS | 7:18 PM | 13,976 | 14,443 | 14,580 | 604 | 8 |
| 11 | CSI: NY | CBS | 10:00 PM | 12,319 | 12,651 | 13,847 | 1,528 | 15 |
| 12 | AMAZING RACE 14 | CBS | 8:18 PM | 10,616 | 11,989 | 12,543 | 1,927 | 12 |
| 13 | COLD CASE | CBS | 9:18 PM | 11,343 | 11,860 | 12,294 | 951 | 13 |
| 14 | 24 | FOX | 9:00 PM | 8,879 | 10,438 | 11,997 | 3,118 | 17 |
| 15 | PRIVATE PRACTICE | ABC | 10:02 PM | 9,415 | 10,173 | 11,923 | 2,508 | 20 |
| 16 | E.R. | NBC | 10:00 PM | 9,868 | 10,395 | 11,591 | 1,723 | 18 |
| 17 | TWO AND A HALF MEN (R) | CBS | 9:00 PM | 10,855 | 11,146 | 11,501 | 646 | 14 |
| 18 | CBS NCAA BSKBL CHMP FR 2(S)-03/27/2009 | CBS | 9:35 PM | 10,794 | 10,996 | 11,023 | 229 | 15 |
| 19 | EXTREME MAKEOVER:HM ED-8P | ABC | 8:00 PM | 10,459 | 10,840 | 11,022 | 563 | 16 |
| 20 | HELL’S KITCHEN | FOX | 9:02 PM | 9,114 | 10,133 | 11,003 | 1,889 | 21 |
| 21 | LOST | ABC | 9:00 PM | 7,397 | 9,073 | 10,990 | 3,593 | 27 |
| 47 | SUPERNANNY | ABC | 9:00 PM | 6,370 | 6,547 | 6,848 | 478 | 46 |
| 65 | DOLLHOUSE | FOX | 9:01 PM | 3,402 | 3,870 | 4,821 | 1,419 | 69 |
| 66 | TERMINATOR: SRH CNR CHRON | FOX | 8:00 PM | 3,242 | 3,881 | 4,714 | 1,472 | 68 |
–
As you can see, on the far right I included a column to indicate what the show’s LIVE+SD ranks were. In the case of the table above, most shows didn’t change much. Private Practice gained five spots in the Live+7 rankings and I had to add the 21st show, Lost, to get to a show that moved more than 5 spots based on DVR viewing. I also listed the numbers for Dollhouse and Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, and I included Supernanny just to show some Friday night comparisons. Because CBS aired basketball that Friday (#18 in the table above) instead of Ghost Whisperer, Flashpoint and Numb3rs, I couldn’t use any of those shows for comparisons here.
But as you can see while given the small overall viewing, Dollhouse and Terminator: TSCC’s DVR viewing is proportionately very high, it still doesn’t change its relative rank much for the week. Ok, but that’s total viewers. What about something more important like 18-49 ratings? Here’s a table with the top shows sorted by Live+7 adults 18-49 ratings:
| 18-49 Rank | Show | Net | Time | Live 18-49 Rating | Live+SD 18-49 Rating | Live+7 18-49 Rating | Live+SD 18-49 Rank |
| 1 | AMERICAN IDOL-WEDNESDAY | FOX | 8:00 PM | 7.67 | 9.29 | 9.88 | 1 |
| 2 | AMER IDL THU RSLT SP-3/26(S)-03/26/2009 | FOX | 8:00 PM | 6.34 | 7.67 | 8.08 | 2 |
| 3 | GREY’S ANATOMY-THU 9PM | ABC | 9:00 PM | 4.52 | 5.63 | 6.99 | 3 |
| 4 | OFFICE | NBC | 9:00 PM | 3.31 | 4.46 | 5.62 | 6 |
| 5 | DANCING WITH THE STARS | ABC | 8:00 PM | 4.59 | 5.02 | 5.28 | 4 |
| 6 | LOST | ABC | 9:00 PM | 3.19 | 4.12 | 5.17 | 10 |
| 7 | HELL’S KITCHEN | FOX | 9:02 PM | 3.99 | 4.54 | 4.96 | 5 |
| 8 | MENTALIST, THE | CBS | 10:00 PM | 3.62 | 3.88 | 4.64 | 14 |
| 9 | CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 10:00 PM | 3.76 | 4.00 | 4.60 | 12 |
| 10 | BIGGEST LOSER 7 | NBC | 9:00 PM | 3.72 | 4.15 | 4.60 | 8 |
| 11 | FAMILY GUY | FOX | 9:00 PM | 3.62 | 4.22 | 4.60 | 7 |
| 12 | PRIVATE PRACTICE | ABC | 10:02 PM | 3.29 | 3.68 | 4.59 | 17 |
| 13 | NCIS | CBS | 9:00 PM | 3.69 | 4.01 | 4.58 | 11 |
| 14 | DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 9:00 PM | 3.58 | 3.89 | 4.15 | 13 |
| 15 | CBS NCAA BSKBL CHMP FR 2(S)-03/27/2009 | CBS | 9:35 PM | 4.02 | 4.14 | 4.15 | 9 |
| 16 | 30 ROCK | NBC | 9:31 PM | 2.73 | 3.42 | 4.14 | 22 |
| 17 | 24 | FOX | 9:00 PM | 2.77 | 3.44 | 4.13 | 21 |
| 18 | E.R. | NBC | 10:00 PM | 3.31 | 3.54 | 4.13 | 20 |
| 19 | CRIMINAL MINDS | CBS | 9:00 PM | 3.02 | 3.41 | 4.06 | 23 |
| 20 | AMAZING RACE 14 | CBS | 8:18 PM | 3.10 | 3.70 | 4.00 | 16 |
| 51 | SUPERNANNY | ABC | 9:00 PM | 1.99 | 2.08 | 2.25 | 49 |
| 56 | DOLLHOUSE | FOX | 9:01 PM | 1.19 | 1.42 | 1.96 | 66 |
| 63 | TERMINATOR: SRH CNR CHRON | FOX | 8:00 PM | 1.00 | 1.29 | 1.74 | 69 |
–
Here you can see that the 18-49 rankings are quite a bit different than the overall rankings. But, you can follow that phenomenon regularly by comparing the weekly Live+SD overall top 20, to the weekly Live+SD adults 18-49 top twenty. While the 18-49 numbers above did change when the extra DVR viewing was factored in, I’ve included the Live+SD 18-49 rankings for that week so you can see the relative changes.
At the top end of the chart, The Mentalist made the biggest rankings gains with the extra week of DVR factored in, jumping six spots up, and again, Private Practice moved up by five spots. It’s not a surprise to see shows at 10pm have the greatest movement among the top twenty with the extra DVR viewing factored in.
30 Rock also jumped up six spots.
By comparison, Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles jumped up six spots, and Dollhouse gained ten spots in the rankings with the extra week of DVR viewing factored in. It cut the Live+SD gap with Supernanny by more than half, going from a .66 ratings adults 18-49 rating point gap in LIVE+SD viewing to only a .29 ratings point gap.
But the problem is, even though hardly anyone DVRs Supernanny relative to Dollhouse (see first table), when all is said in done, with all of the DVR viewing factored in, Supernanny still outperforms Dollhouse by almost 15%. A much more expensive scripted show getting beat by Supernanny is not a recipe for renewal, no matter how you slice it.
So barring an astronomically good forecast for Dollhouse DVD sales by FOX’s studio division to the point where it’s so heavily discounted that the FOX broadcast network simply can’t refuse it — and that seems very unlikely to me — or, roughly a 25% improvement to Dollhouse’s Live+SD 18-49 ratings(that would result in similar increases to its Live+7 ratings), I don’t see any way this show is coming back.
Here are a few other shows:
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| 18-49 Rank | Show | Net | Time | Live 18-49 Rating | Live+SD 18-49 Rating | Live+7 18-49 Rating | Live+SD 18-49 Rank |
| 38 | CHUCK | NBC | 8:00 PM | 1.84 | 2.24 | 2.74 | 42 |
| 44 | SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 8:30 PM | 1.96 | 2.18 | 2.54 | 47 |
| 49 | LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 10:02 PM | 1.8 | 1.98 | 2.26 | 53 |
| 62 | LIFE | NBC | 9:00 PM | 1.22 | 1.43 | 1.81 | 65 |
| 68 | FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS | NBC | 9:00 PM | 1.14 | 1.28 | 1.59 | 71 |
| 69 | KINGS | NBC | 8:00 PM | 1.08 | 1.29 | 1.49 | 70 |
| 70 | SUPERNATURAL | CW | 9:00 PM | 1.05 | 1.18 | 1.48 | 73 |
Robert
Can I make a suggestion for what could be a quick and dirty graph?
Since the explosion in new channels over the last 20 years there’s been a fragmentation in the market where some specialist channels now probably don’t even register as having viewers at all?
I’d be really interested to see a graph that showed say….
Absolute number of Total Viewers (The Population of the US is still growing)
Number of Total Viewers watching TV per day
% of people watching the network shows out of total viewers
% of People watching cable shows out of total viewers
Given that Network shows never reach the numbers they used to that there are some people who perhaps never watch Network TV (perhaps only ever watching News or Sports channels amongst others) also I wonder if people are not watching as much TV?
The numbers above really only reinforce what you’ve already said, I wonder can you run a book on TV show renewals? Now that would be interesting!!
Craig, unfortunately we don’t see that data regularly enough to slice it that way. In fact, so far as I know we only see it once a year, and as a composite for the total season during prime time. You can see some of that data here:
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/09/19/broadcast-prime-time-for-2008-9-look-out-below/5182
on a nightly basis we do usually see the percentage of homes or specific demos that were watching, but it’s not sliced by channel or broadcast vs. cable. so we can’t cite any precise figures on what portion was broadcast versus cable. we can do some estimates of what portion was on ABC, CBS, CW, FOX and NBC based on share, but the inverse of that doesn’t really equal cable’s share — though most of the difference would definitely be cable.
I can’t speak for the last three months or so, but prior to that, people were spending as much time with TV as ever. Most of the broadcast erosion has been due to cable viewing growth.
Christ, TSCC and Dollhouse are basket cases. So much for the DVR argument for those shows.
I would have liked to see Fringe, but I think it was on hiatus that week.
yeah, Fringe was on hiatus until April 7. It won’t be in next week’s DVR data (3/30-4/5) either.
I’m guessing that was the week Heroes was repeat, it should of shown up somewhere otherwise.
Terrific charts and data. Very informative. Kudos.
Mike, Heroes wasn’t a repeat that week, but none of the ways I sliced it put it in the top 20. Its live+7 viewing was 8.165 million (37th) and its live+7 adults 18-49 rating was 3.8 (22nd)
Question: with this dvr data included, is TSSC second in its timeslot in live+7 demo, beating wifeswap and Howdie, after GW (or NCAA) ?
i think in live+7 demo TSSC performs better than previous Fox shows airing in Friday 8 pm time slot, which should make Fox happy. You have to compare the shows in the same timeslot, right? I remember, one of the Fox people said advertisers like tssc and dh live+7 numbers on fridays…
Hagi, Wife Swap beat it by a wide margin in total viewers and by .1 adults 18-49 rating poinst (1.84 vs. 1.74), even with live plus seven factored in. They could’ve aired game shows for a lot less money and achieved similar results. You somewhat misquoted the Fox executive, whose primary job at the end of the day is AD SALES, but I won’t get into that.
yes for that week WS’s live numbers(1.7) were good so live+7 is(1.7->1.84) but for remaining two weeks TSSC should get better numbers, if this trend continues. Fox can air game shows with having cheap costs… But if Friday night lights is renewed (whose live7 demo numbers worse than tSSc) with support from direct tv, i ll not be surprised if TSSC is renewed with some WB support
What were Chuck DVR and Live+7 overall numbers?
oh you and your hopeful attitude! 8D
if AI got 25 mil n ep would day be it’s season average or if it got 5millon dvr viewers a show so 30million viewers , would that be it’s average . if that makes sense
hagi, T:SCC already had WB support. No, we don’t know the specifics, like we do with the FNL/DirecTV deal, but we know that WB *is* giving Fox a lot of considerations. Barring projections for massive DVD sales or other outside revenues that are really impressive (I know T:SCC was part of a package deal WB sold to MBC for some Persian Gulf airings recently, no idea what sort of money was involved), then there’s no real reason for WB to do even more.
Question. the overnight data is live+SD yes?
so why the shift in total viewers from 3.56 to 3.87m?
whoops. never mind. mixing up episodes
Miranda, 3.87 was the result in the finals, which is usually slightly different from the number reported in the overnights.
Robert, thanks for this. I’ve been saying for weeks that if DVR numbers ever started to count, the relative number required for success would go up, so it wouldn’t help most shows that are in trouble. Very interesting to see which shows change position. I bet The Mentalist is mostly due to the fact that it was at 10pm that week, and it usually doesn’t jump that much. But I think the most interesting fact is that Family Guy actually dropped four spots.
thank you for supernatural and dollhouse!! how much supernatural gain in viewers by DVR?
Still, DH had the greatest jump in rank? by a fair bit? So how is that bad towards DVR numbers not mattering?
Miranda, it doesn’t matter because Dollhouse’s rank is still pretty bad. It’s still not even beating a reality show it airs against.
Miranda, I’m guessing the shows it jumped over for those 10 spots were Saturday reruns and CW shows, and beating those is still not a great accomplishment. Imagine that press release “With DVR numbers figured in, we were finally able to out perform out of slot reruns of NCIS”
“So barring an astronomically good forecast for Dollhouse DVD sales by FOX’s studio division to the point where it’s so heavily discounted that the FOX broadcast network simply can’t refuse it — and that seems very unlikely to me…”
Really? It doesn’t seem at all unlikely to me. Joss Whedon’s fans are notoriously loyal consumers of his products. FOX, both studio and network, have seen evidence of that with Firefly, not to mention the fact that sets of Buffy and Angel are still selling a pretty good rate considering that they’ve been off the air for more than five years, and Dr. Horrible has been selling so well that they had to move it to a bigger distributor. If anything, I’d be surprised if Dollhouse didn’t fare well on DVD.
I’d be curious to see if/how the overall numbers might change if online viewership were included. Many people I know rely on Hulu and similar services to keep up with shows that air opposite each other on crowded nights (particularly Mondays) or during times when we are most likely to be out of the house (like Friday nights).
It also bears noting that of the Top 20, only one show listed — The Mentalist — is in its first season. Although the networks seem to be growing slightly less trigger happy about new series than they have been in recent memory, many of the shows being canceled or in danger of it are only in their first or second seasons, and even that can be difficult to calculate due to the interruption of the writers’ strike. I guess it just feels counterintuitive for a network and/or studio to have so little faith in its own products — for which they have paid a lot of money — that they can’t wait more than three months for audiences to find them. With such a wide array of channels available, that might take longer than it would have with my parents’ generation and their three or four options. And that’s probably why I’m in no way connected with that industry.
Nobody cares about about DVR numbers when renewing or canceling a show.
It also bears noting that of the Top 20, only one show listed — The Mentalist — is in its first season.
A few of the the higher-rated first-season shows weren’t on that week. 11th Hour was preempted for basketball. Fringe and Lie To Me were off the air for longer installments of Idol. NBC has only one show in the top 20 anyway.
But four in the top 20 for the demo!
Robert, on KryptonSite, avid rating’s watchers have been keeping track of Smallville’s Live and Live+7 ratings for years. We’ve always relied on this Site to get those Stats. and other info.
Smallville’s ranking may not have been that high, but it’s important to us.
Can you tell us Smallville’s Live+7 total viewers for March 26th Episode “Hex”.
Thank you for all your great ratings info.
I’m not surprised at all by the amount of 10 p.m. shows that have such a high DVR ranking. Sometimes when you have to get up at 5 a.m. to do everything you need before work, you just can’t stay up until 11 p.m. to watch television. Not that DVR rankings really mean anything, but it makes you realize why 10 p.m. shows have a little bit lower expectations than 9 p.m. shows.
Robert
I know for several posters (including myself) the reason they like the older forms is that it shows data on shows that we would never normally see (ths like the CW DVR results for example). I know I will miss it this week and hope to see it back next.
My goodness… If only the Nielsen families that already watched Chuck would just watch their DVR’s the same day the episode airs, the show wouldn’t even be on the bubble.
Can you please post the DVR numbers for the March 26 episode of Smallville?
Hi Bob,
Could you tell us what Reaper’s DVR numbers were?
Thanks
How about the DVR numbers for Cops?
LOL Holly!
Unfortunately there is way too much involved to add those shows to the table above, since there aren’t 14,000 broadcast prime-time shows, I can at least give the total DVR viewing numbers:
Smallville: 1.239 million
Gossip Girl 1.108 million
Reaper: .646 million
Cops (8p-830): .276 million
Cops (8:30-9p): .254 million
Thanx for the Smallville info! Can I ask just one more question? Out of the DVR numbers for Smallville what were the Same Day numbers and what were the +7 numbers?
Thanx again if you answer.
WTF, The Mentalist is a 9pm show (at least it is in L.A.)
my bad. didn’t realize it was scheduled at a different time this wk.
You can compare these numbers to C3 numbers. It’s strikingly similar in the sense that shows that drop in the ratings also drop in the C3 (basically all reality shows) and DOLLHOUSE is the largest jumper in C3s (followed by FRINGE). Yes, it’s a direct result of REMOTE FREE TV.
However DOLLHOUSE is always a top 50 show in C3s in the 18-49 demo. With DOLLHOUSE’s future being tied to REMOTE FREE TV (if they bring it back, they’re bringing back DOLLHOUSE) it’s an important part of the argument.
I’ve always considered top 40 demo shows to be “safely on the bubble,” So a top 50 show that airs on Friday would also be safely on the bubble (since it’s Friday).
Also remember that DOLLHOUSE and TSCC both get higher ad rates than the reality shows they replaced. Those shows had extremely low retention levels and in addition were subject to massive non-commercial watching.
Nick, if REMOTE FREE is the only reason it gets into the C3 top 50, the top 50 ranking won’t keep it safe.
And while the ad rates and retention issues do make a lot of sense, they’re not making up the difference in cost of production at the levels cited here.
If Dollhouse can’t beat Supernanny outright (or at least tie it!) in Live+7, it’s not coming back.
It’s all very interesting information, and I love coming to this site for the numbers, but I wonder if we aren’t reaching a point where numbers matter a little less? Someone posted upthread about the fragmentation of the market: I would think that the appeal of shows like TSCC and Dollhouse (and perhaps to a lesser extent Chuck and Fringe) is the assumption that the particular type of audience they draw is likely to be more tech-savvy and perhaps more affluent. Thus advertisers would like those shows, despite low numbers, because the numbers they do draw are likely to be receptive to certain kinds of ads and product placements. If you aim to sell the latest tech, I’m guessing the Ghost Whisperer and Supernanny audiences are not the best place to advertise, despite their better numbers.
lala, While we don’t get data with breakdowns of education and income level, the networks and advertisers do. That said, there’s no way a 1.3 for TSCC is more attractive to advertisers than a 2.5 for GW.
@Holly
I’m guessing you are right, hence we have a tv landscape dominated by reality shows and cop dramas.
But I do feel like things might be shifting as cable starts making a play for niche audiences. Even education and income level data don’t communicate what has been proven about genre audiences, especially science fiction, which is the commitment of the fanbase to the show. That commitment leads to high DVD and memorabilia sales, and perhaps translates into susceptibility to particular kinds of advertising. Maybe a 1.3 for TSCC isn’t as attractive as a 2.5 for Ghost Whisperer, but maybe it’s not as unattractive as the numbers alone suggest.
Of course, I am making all kinds of unfair assumptions about what kinds of people watch Ghost Whisperer and what kinds of things they might buy : )
Well Robert, I can’t say this is happy news for me, considering my birthday is this week. Thank You though, for taking the time to do something a little out of the ordinary and work up the numbers for Dollhouse and TSCC. Even Whedon is less than optomistic about renewal, although official word is still out. I really appreciate your taking the time to run through it in depth. I have my fingers crossed still…
robert, you gave us dvr for smallville “hex”, but we have trouble on KryptonSite to calculate what was live&7. could you resolve our problem? it’s very important to us
and the second question. will live&7 ratings be always in that form from now? if the answer is yes, please remember about smallville
Robert, Thanks for Smallville info. My chart has Final ratings, then Live+7. example:
#8 Bloodline ~ *4.46 mil. & Live+7= 5.02 mil.
#9 Abyss ~ *3.56 mil. & Live+7= 4.38 mil.
#10 Bride ~ *4.19 mil. & (No Live+7 available, ever!)
#11 Legion ~ *4.30 mil. & Live+7= 4.89 mil.
Could you give us Live+7 for Hex?
Btw, is the Final ratings caculated between Live and Overnights?
Marc Berman posts the Finals.
Btw, is the Final ratings caculated between Live and Overnights?
The overnights are preliminary Live+SD. They are based on whatever was being watched at, for example, 8 pm on Thursday on CW in every metered market. This is not exact, because the Central and Mountain timezones air shows an hour earlier. So the overnights are counting those timezones’ viewing of Supernatural as Smallville. There are also other adjustments like when a show is preempted in some markets, and when shows run over by 1-2 minutes. That’s what finals take into account.
Thanks Julia, That makes sense. So are the Finals and Live+SD the same? Or which is more accurate?
Finals include Live+SD viewing.
finals are more accurate than fast national preliminary data. The overnight posts are always based on fast national preliminary data. But they are still Live+SD.
The WEEKLY information we post is also Live+SD info, but it is final numbers.
The Live+7 posts are also based on final numbers. BTW, Live+7 for the Smallville episode the week of 3/23-3/29 was: 4.493 million.
Oh, thank you for explaining so clearly. Now I understand.
YAY! Thank you Robert! You are the “Best”! Now I can complete my chart
Robert, but it crushes SUPERNANNY in the C3. Which is the most important, and it would likely crush it without REMOTE FREE TV. I mean TSCC is rated just above SUPERNANNY on the C3s.
It doubt it crushed it in the C3 for the week listed here. I can’t even be sure it beat it since I don’t have the data. If you have the data, please post it. Regardless, I seriously doubt FOX renews the show if it’s pulling less than 1.8 live+SD (that would get it on par with Supernanny on a Live+7 basis). There’s no doubt in my mind at all that it doesn’t get renewed at the 1.4-1.5 range it’s been in the last few weeks.
Robert just to annoy you could you give us the live plus 7 viewer total for SN. Don’t worry about it if its to much to ask.
Robert, but they’re talking about renewing it right now. They may make the decision before next Friday. That means they’re still interested with the 1.4-1.5 range. It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me unless they expect it to grow over the summer. If that is the case, and they’re expecting to have a stronger lead in next season… it’s still a gamble. The fact is though that FOX is in a healthy enough situation right now to gamble. You know I agree with you, I said before that if the show dropped into 1.4s and 1.3s it was DEAD. I find those numbers to be to low to believe they’d even consider renewal. However, they’re considering it. So it makes me not have any clue what they’re up to or what they expected.
I’d have to pull up the data, but I believe the C3 on DOLLHOUSE that week was 1.7 (rounded up) and for SUPERNANNY was right by it on the list. When DOLLHOUSE was pulling 1.5+ it was always beating it in the C3.
mswood, it’s already there at the very bottom.
Nick
I don’t see it. I do see the demo breakdown of the 18-49 demo for DVR use, but I don’t see the P2 data for live plus 7.
I am I just an idiot?
Nick, sorry, I don’t believe FOX broadcasting is really considering renewing it yet. I do believe they are fine with waiting to see how it does next Friday with the Prison Break lead-in. Barring a 1.0 rating for Prison Break tonight I would be shocked if FOX Broadcasting makes a decision before next Friday (and I’d be pretty surprised if PB does that badly!).
I think FOX Studios is happier to tell the tale that renewal is being considered and FOX Broadcasting is fine letting them do that.
Robert brings up a good point. Fox may well want to minimize the bitching between the Studios and the network by waiting until ALL episodes of Dollhouse have been aired, regardless of ratings. That way, at the end of the season, the network can say “We waited until the very end to see if the trend was up – and it wasn’t, so we won’t renew”, rather than telling the studios earlier and having people say, “Wait, we believe it was going to trend up and you said you’d wait to see if it trends up!”
Not to mention Joss Whedon and his fans complaining the show got canceled just as it was trending up, like Firefly, etc.
Why bother taking the heat if you can delay the decision until after the season ends? Then nobody has a leg to stand on except to complain it was on Fridays at all.
And once again, the biased Robert Seidman goes greatly out of his way to make the point of how bad Dollhouse and Terminator are, almost scolding anyone who watches those shows.
Guess what? I’m realistic. I know there’s a very slim chance that Terminator will get renewed, and I accept that. What I DON’T need are sites like this, who claim to stay objective, berating shows that I enjoy. It’s easy to see you’re taking jabs at fans by posting titles like this one. Maybe I’m just the fool for coming here week after week expecting something better.
Here’s an idea, why not pick a new show to hate on and let Terminator die in peace okay?
Dan, if you don’t need sites like this, then why not avoid them?
What WE don’t need here are people who come in accusing the site runners of being “biased”, no matter how many times they’ve pointed out that the fans don’t know what they’re talking about when they come in here and say that everything is fine and the shows will be back.
Robert and Bill are trying to explicitly show you why that ain’t happening. That’s not being “biased”, that’s being INFORMATIVE.
Try to be informed instead of being a hater…or a fool.
What really irritates me about fans like Dan is that these “cheerleaders” cheer-led TSCC into the toilet. Everything was just fine to them, no matter how many problems the show actually had and the ratings proved it. If the fans had been more critical, perhaps the show runner would have paid more attention to where he was going wrong (doubtful premise, perhaps, but still…)
Dan, first of all, Seidman seems to like Dollhouse, so claiming bias against it is somewhat peculiar. I don’t recall him making any comments, outside of comments about viewing figures, pro- or anti- T:SCC,
Secondly, this website is called “TV by the numbers.” Seidman and Gorman have created a website based upon the notion, not a particularly extraordinary one, that TV networks base their programming decisions on ratings. They’ve done their best to come up with objective criteria to determine what’s coming back and what isn’t, based not on what shows they like, but on what the ratings say. And they’re using the same source as the networks.
If you’re reading into anything they’re saying that you shouldn’t be watching the shows you’re watching, then you’re misunderstanding what’s being said. Indeed, it could be argued that an implied argument made by the site’s very existence is that you should be watching what you like to see on TV. Because only by watching it, preferably live, are the shows you want to watch likely to be made.
First of all, thanks Robert for going to such length to shows us how the TV numbers change or don’t change in the DVR world. Very intersting stuff.
I know it’s probablly too much to ask but I am going to ask anyway, I would love to know if CSI:NY went up or down in the 18-49 chart? Thanks.
“What really irritates me about fans like Dan is that these “cheerleaders” cheer-led TSCC into the toilet. Everything was just fine to them, no matter how many problems the show actually had and the ratings proved it. If the fans had been more critical, perhaps the show runner would have paid more attention to where he was going wrong (doubtful premise, perhaps, but still…)”
BZZT! Sorry, wrong answer! I am not a “cheerleader” for the show as you call it. I simply see a show that actually had a compelling story and intriguing characters that you simply don’t see very often on TV these days, when almost everything else is reality based garbage.
I also say that the show was far from perfect. After they came back from the break for Season 2, we were stuck with the non-compelling and frankly bland “Sarah 3 Dots” episodes which really killed the show’s otherwise excellent streak of episode quality. You could have removed all those and really not missed anything.
And again, ratings only go so far to say how good a show is. American Idol gets massive ratings, but is it quality TV? Hardly. It’s something the simpler people watch because they enjoy watching the people without talent.
Don’t just throw me blindly into the “mindless follower” pile, because I’m far from it.
Julia says:
“They are based on whatever was being watched at, for example, 8 pm on Thursday on CW in every metered market. This is not exact, because the Central and Mountain timezones air shows an hour earlier. So the overnights are counting those timezones’ viewing of Supernatural as Smallville.”
The last sentence here strikes me as highly unlikely. “The data reflect normal broadcast feed patterns,” to quote the mother ship. The World Series football game example does not apply.
Boris, it may seem unlikely, but that’s how it works. It doesn’t make much of a difference since most of the major markets are not in the Central or Mountain timezones, but the numbers we see here everyday are not timezone adjusted, which means just what I said.
What possible reason would there be to attach program names to timeslots without knowing what they actually contain? The correction is trivial, unlike overruns.
Are you absolutely sure? It seems having Chicago, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Phoenix (during Daylight savings), Minneapolis-St. Paul, Denver, St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Nashville (just in the top 30) an hour off would make a significant difference. We’d be seeing drops for the 8 pm shows every day, just like we see when those markets are preempted for sports. If each market is reporting their data to Nielsen, wouldn’t they report their prime-time data rather than 2 hours of primetime and one hour of news/late night?
That’s my understanding. I believe Robert or Bill have said that’s how it works.
Oops, Atlanta too.
I can’t see them reporting the wrong hour for 6 of the top 15 markets. It just doesn’t make sense.
Atlanta is Eastern.
I agree, it doesn’t make a lot of sense, but if you think about it, there really wouldn’t be much change from overnights to finals for the most part if that wasn’t actually the issue, with the exception of shows with overrun and preemptions, but there almost always are adjustments. Usually they are not significant without overrun or preemptions, but they are enough that there needs to be some reason behind it.
I realized I messed up on Atlant after I typed it…
Adjustments are usually only .1 up or down, and often nothing at all. There is a huge difference between the demo for Bones and the demo for Idol. If 1/3 of the top markets were reporting American Idol numbers for what was reported here as Bones yesterday, how could it keep the same demo results in the finals?
I’ve found myself becoming more and more reluctant to get involved with Dollhouse because of the inevitable. Now I’m growing fond of Sierra on the show… I’m still not big into Dushku’s character(s), including Caroline.
That’s what I’ve feared about all of the negativity being spread for months. It’s bad enough that Fox premieres a show on Friday, which is coined the deathslot (or a variation) in every news posting.
Fortunately the writers are doing some Positive articles on Chuck. Whether you believe me or not, I’ve never watched the show. I’m about as unbiased as it can be on that front.
Random thought #31: The bottom commentary (replies) should be more for visitors. The writers post the data.
When you go by actual number of households, 72% of the top 54 (the fast affiliates) are in the Eastern or Pacific timezones. I don’t know if that really explains it, but that is my understanding. I could be wrong.
Robert and Bill, Could you check with your Nielsen’s contacts about this? Thanks!
Richard Steven Hack says:
“What WE don’t need here [...]”
You are indeed rightfully the Queen of England, Guruji.
No, but I have an email acquaintance who does believe the Queen of England runs everything.
And I don’t look like her or Lanie Grace.
Holly, what Julia posted is correct and it is something I have already checked. The overnight fast affiliates are not time-zone adjusted, even for things like Grey’s Anatomy. There doesn’t seem to wind up being much difference usually in the finals because the populations of the television viewing world and the Nielsen panel have a coastal bias. And one hour doesn’t wind up making as much difference as two hours or three hours would.
Sometimes, the networks order up special overnights that ARE time zone adjusted. FOX did this, for example with the American Idol premiere (for some reason I can’t find the Tuesday premiere, but for the Wednesday premiere on January 14 I actually have both the non-adjusted and time zone adjusted numbers for FOX/Idol. The differences, even for something as big as Idol are surprisingly small, but again, I chalk it up to coastal bias. In the non-time zone adjusted version FOX had an 11.7 adults 18-49 rating and 29.854 million viewers for the 8p-10p period. With the time zone adjustments that changed to an 11.8 adults 18-49 rating and 30.320 million viewers between for the 8p-10p period. So you’re basically looking at something that wound up with ~1% difference.
With shows like Idol not changing much, shows with half its audience will change even less. It’s not really that surprising to me for a couple of reasons. One, the smaller markets don’t matter as much as the bigger markets and while they do make more of a difference in big markets like Chicago, it’s still something that is spread out over a much bigger pie to the point of not making much difference. Also, and this will seem counter intuitive too, there are still a lot of people watching TV at 7pm and 8pm regardless.
It makes perfect sense to me at this point, but it’s something that was initially hard for me to wrap my brain around. One thing I don’t know, and I will check is whether there is any additional weighting that goes on with the fast nationals to make them wind up closer to the finals (i.e., do they give New York and Los Angeles more weighting than Chicago, even above and beyond the size differences of the markets to offset the time zone issues). I’ve always concluded that they did, but I will see what I can find out.
Robert Seidman says:
“Holly, what Julia posted is correct and it is something I have already checked. The overnight fast affiliates are not time-zone adjusted”
But what then does “time zone adjusted” precisely mean? Clearly, *something* is being adjusted under either hypothesis, since the “coastal bias” still requires cooking in UTC differences, just in a peculiar fashion. I’ve heard of stranger things, but the further notion that some sort of weighting would later be applied to correct a deliberately introduced baseline error strains my credulity.
Boris, Time Zone adjusted vs non time zone adjusted simply (and precisely) means that when it’s time zone adjusted markets that aired Idol from 7p-9pm, are measured from 7p-9pm. When it’s not time zone adjusted, the view of those markets rolled into the national numbers would show viewing of the affiliate from 8pm-10pm even though Idol was on from 7pm-9pm.
The additional weighting that I inferred (and may be completely incorrect about) would be added earlier, rather than later. Remember, only the preliminary national numbers are not time-zone adjusted. If there are simple things they can do to get the national preliminary numbers closer to the national finals I don’t see it making much difference since it’s all at the national level anyway and the preliminary numbers don’t really form the basis of anything other than us spectators who can’t wait!
The local affiliates see data for actual viewing and don’t care about national numbers, and the national numbers the advertisers used are allegedly the C3 ratings (which are final numbers, and certainly time-zone adjusted). It could be that the national preliminaries typically correlate well with the final numbers without additional weighting simply because the national people meter panel is small (although growing). You can read more here from Nielsen:
http://www.nielsenmedia.com/nc/portal/site/Public/menuitem.55dc65b4a7d5adff3f65936147a062a0/?vgnextoid=c1c8d69265245110VgnVCM100000ac0a260aRCRD
(note, they do talk about geographical weighting in that release — but not in precise terms).
Robert Seidman says:
“Boris, Time Zone adjusted vs non time zone adjusted simply (and precisely) means that when it’s time zone adjusted markets that aired Idol from 7p-9pm, are measured from 7p-9pm.”
So the Fast Affiliate Ratings should be taken as a somewhat arbitrary puree of data streams meant for the local stations?
No, they are meant to measure national results. you can bone up more on national people meter measurement versus local people meter measurement versus diary measurement if it suits you.
As long as it is the currency of how advertising is brokered, the data is relevant to predicting show futures. I’m personally not very interested in the precise mechanics of Nielsen sampling. If you are, feel free to research and share what you learn!
What was the Live+7 rating for the Supernatural episode at the week of 3/23-3/29?
Also, I have to point out that ranking all the shows is pretty much useless in determining shows renewal prospects. You’re automatically putting it up against other nights viewing, and this causes a massive skewing. of course it’ll be ranked much lower. I’m not disagreeing that the DH numbers are not great, but you can’t just say “hey it ranked 56th once you add in DVR, so that means its doomed” when you’re as good as trying to rank the sales of celery to fast foods. of course it’ll be lower down the list.
Ranking shows by day, maybe. ranking it against previous shows in said time slot. definitely.
But don’t skew the data on purpose to make shows look bad.
Maybe I’m dense – but if they are adjusting the numbers for the timezones — wouldn’t they be applying — let’s call it the ‘coastal fudge factor’ — across the board? So the ratings of the shows relative to one another won’t change? Then the finals correct for it all, right? The fudge factor must be pretty good — the finals don’t seem to change a whole lot.
I can see why Fox would be considering renewing Dollhouse taking into consideration more than just the ratings. (Blasphemy! I know, Robert. LOL)Its kinda shiny with buzz (both good and bad)and they don’t really have that outside of Idol. Fringe buzz has died off, Lie to Me is (I think) a good show, but like Bones– an unsung work horse, House and 24 are aging, Prison Break is done. TSCC turned out to be something of an embarrassment –lotsa hype, little return.
I don’t know what their pilot slate is looking like — that could be effecting the decision.
How do networks handle the people, like myself and my family, who do not watch anything live other than sports events? Why do I want to watch a series live when I can watch it at my convenience without commercials?
Also, there are many shows that I would not see without the benefit of DVR. Any family that has a young teen not yet driving that is active, is not around for many shows. My house would not know about many things from House, Lost to TSCC without a DVR.
Steve, at least theoretically, families like you would be appropriately represented in the Nielsen panel and show up in either the Live+SD or Live+7 Nielsen numbers.
Missy: Supernatural L+7 for 3/26 was 3.699 million.
Thank you for your reply, and you have an interesting site. I found it through a search for a glimpse of hope with TSCC, as my family watches it religiously. Maybe that show did all it was intended to do. It has my wife and son wanting to see T-Salvation even though they were never Terminator fans. I must admit that it had many dead spots this year even for its greatest fans. I even thought it opened with a whimper following the playoffs when it had an opportunity to capture a new audience.
Back to the DVR thoughts. I would think that the majority of those that do not watch via DVR do not have access to one. One would think that TV viewing and sponsorship has to evolve to the various ways you can and will view media in the future. I just preordered TSCC season 2 in Blu-ray in a feeble attempt to sway anyone. It was the best way I thought I could vote. Will we ever see a day when we order a series or OTA network in advance instead of after the fact?
Steve, currently 30% (maybe that’s up to 31%) of the homes in the USA have DVRs according to Nielsen. So, at least on a household basis more than 2/3rds of them still don’t have DVRs. We agree that the models need to evolve and that pre-ordering the DVD was the best way to show your support.
Will we ever see a day when we order a series or OTA network in advance instead of after the fact?
Direct-to-DVD and digital already happens, though not on a scale that currently competes with TV viewing. I think it will be somewhere between “a while” and “never” before you see big budget, high quality content series purchased before they ever aired.
Let them know that Fridays suck for any show on FOX. The average viewer for this station, doesn’t stay home. There is an entire world outside and thats why more people watch shows online and DVR!!! FOX needs a different approach to business
FOX Broadcasting
Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles
10201 W. Pico Blvd.
Los Angeles, CA 90035
WB
Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles
4000 Warner Blvd
Burbank CA 91522
You know what to do.
you guys here at this site go above the ranks of what you need to do… i’m sure it takes a lot of your time, but it is cool to see the numbers overall. Thanks for taking the time to do so.
So Dollhouse & TSCC dropped in ranking when you factored in the SD DVR viewers.
Carol, both Dollhouse and TSCC improved their rankings factoring in the SD DVR viewers. I didn’t rank “live viewing” only because nobody reports live viewing only anywhere anyway. But both shows improved their rankings with SD DVR.
Robert Seidman says:
“I’m personally not very interested in the precise mechanics of Nielsen sampling. If you are, feel free to research and share what you learn!”
Sound advice.
Well, I now know more about the NAVE IIc encoder than I ever expected. A couple of things seem clear: (1) A lot of effort has been put into embedding SID/AMOL information into the transmitted signals and deploying the equipment; (2) the encoders are supposed to know what local time is, reckoned from UTC; (3) the meters report the embedded (by which I mean “VBI”; there is more steganography) tags as a first option.
I’ve found nothing to support the proposition that regular Central and Mountain broadcasts of, e.g., Supernatural are routinely counted as Smallville broadcasts in the Fast Affiliate data, which are indeed “non-time-zone-corrected” Live+SD as far as I can tell. It is perhaps illuminating to examine this note from Nielsen, though (emphasis added):
“Live+SD = Households tuning or Persons viewing a *program or time period* of a specific station or cable network, including VCR record, at the actual time the show was telecast, and any DVR playback tuning/viewing in the same processing day to pre-recorded program or time period that is shifted ‘back’ to original telecast time. The processing day is the same collection day used for daily processing; however, this will also include some households that are in different time zones than the market with which they are collected. As a result, data for some homes may be collected at 2am instead of 3am local time.”
One thing definitely implied here is that data for DMAs that cross time zones are deliberately gathered in a time-zone-aware fashion. Moreover,
“Live+7 may contain live viewing to dual feed cable networks between 3a-6a that was *not* included in the Live estimates. Program and time period data for these hours are collected the day after the dailies are processed and will not be included in the Live (or Live+SD) estimates. This includes viewing from an east coast home to a west coast feed between 3a-6a that would *credit back* to the dual feed program between 12-3a.”
Note the limited time frame under consideration; this certainly seems to conform with the intuitive (OK, my) notion of what would constitute a time-zone correction. I can imagine other such adjustments in the shorter term, such as the failure to embed or corruption of the SID tags, requiring “lineup verification,” that would require raw tuning data to be recomputed.
I don’t mean to be truculent, but I still can’t see an outfit that takes pains to separate live and DVD viewing of a show on a minute-by-minute basis distributing a named data product with the proposed systematic bias and no specific disclaimer. At least, I hope I’ve adduced some food for thought, although I think that’s a mixed metaphor.
makes sense to me. And I’m OK about being wrong about the time zone adjustments for broadcast. If those issues only apply to live events, that does indeed make more sense. Otherwise the only adjustments (and they are not time zone related) are the program overruns and when a local affiliate preempts the network feed to air something else.
This doesn’t apply to any of our broadcast overnight reporting though:
Live+7 may contain live viewing to dual feed cable networks between 3a-6a that was *not* included in the Live estimates
I do enjoy access to dual feed cable networks and wish I could get the east coast feed for the broadcast networks, so that it could also apply, but since our regular overnight reporting is only for broadcast, the dual feed cable issue doesn’t come into play.
Robert Seidman says:
“I do enjoy access to dual feed cable networks and wish I could get the east coast feed for the broadcast networks, so that it could also apply, but since our regular overnight reporting is only for broadcast, the dual feed cable issue doesn’t come into play.”
Yah, that was originally part of an unrelated explanation of why Live+7 minus Live doesn’t yield time-shifted viewing; it was the specificity of the window and nature of the “crediting” that I was trying to highlight. This particular effect apparently is never corrected in Live or Live+SD but is in Live+7.
Boris, I’m not clear on how that applies to anything we’re doing. What am I missing?
Sadly, we no longer see any live or live+7 data for cable shows (we used to see some at least for the top 40 cable shows – but only L+7, not the top 40 “time shifted” so we don’t really miss it much ). I’m not sure how that applies here.
Aha. I’m an OTA viewer, and I took “dual feed cable network” to include broadcast network feeds. I think the original point, which goes only to broadcast nets and hinges on the ease or difficulty of certain corrections (as embodied in their jargon), can withstand scrutiny, but I’m the one wearing a bull’s-eye.
Dual feed cable network = getting east coast and west coast feeds of the same channel (or rather, the same network on different channels). Some cable offerings provide dual timezone feeds as a part of the offering but dual feeds for the broadcast networks aren’t available to the average person (there are some very special circumstances where it can be done via satellite). I would happily pay extra for the east coast feeds. The local broadcast affiliates don’t want to be bypassed though, a problem the cable networks don’t have.
I just don’t think Nielsens are accurate. I think they need to find a better way to measure what people watch. I am certain they don’t choose randomly enough. the viewing is skewed towards families rather then singles for one thing, and single people probably spend more cash.