4/23 Update: ABC announced the official pick-ups of the following shows for the 2009-10 season: America’s Funniest Home Videos, The Bachelor, Brothers & Sisters, Dancing with the Stars, Desperate Housewives, Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, Grey’s Anatomy, Lost, Private Practice, Supernanny, Ugly Betty, Wife Swap. Not a surprise in the bunch. I have updated the chart below for Private Practice.
After being gone last week, there’s a lot to catch up on, and a change in the numbers in the tables. Instead of using the 18-49 viewership for the calculations, I’m going to instead use the 18-49 rating, which simply is the percentage of the US 18-49 TV adults population. (There are an estimated 132 million US adults 18-49 in TV households, so a 1.0 rating is equal to 1.32 million adults 18-49). Since we only get 18-49 demo ratings for each show on an overnight basis, that makes the values in the Renew/Cancel Index easier to compare with the overnight demo ratings results.
In the past two weeks, two new ABC shows have premiered to very different results. Surviving Suburbia opened well and looks likely for renewal. On the other hand, The Unusuals fared poorly and looks likely to be canceled.
Castle continues to drop from its premiere ratings, which were good enough for renewal. Last night it had a 2.2 overnight rating for the 18-49 demo. At that level, it’s going to be canceled.
These shows are also likely to be canceled: In the Motherhood, Cupid and Better off Ted.
Private Practice and Samantha Who? look likely for renewal.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN THE MOTHERHOOD | ABC | 1.6 | 2.7 | 0.59 | |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 1.7 | 2.7 | 0.63 | canceled |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P | ABC | 1.7 | 2.7 | 0.63 | final season |
| BETTER OFF TED | ABC | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.67 | |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.67 | canceled |
| THE UNUSUALS | ABC | 1.9 | 2.7 | 0.70 | |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 1.9 | 2.7 | 0.70 | canceled |
| CUPID | ABC | 1.9 | 2.7 | 0.70 | |
| SCRUBS-TU 9PM | ABC | 1.9 | 2.7 | 0.70 | final season |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 2.2 | 2.7 | 0.81 | canceled |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2.2 | 2.7 | 0.81 | final season |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 2.3 | 2.7 | 0.85 | returning |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.89 | |
| CASTLE | ABC | 2.5 | 2.7 | 0.93 | |
| SURVIVING SUBURBIA | ABC | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.04 | |
| PRIVATE PRACTICE | ABC | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.07 | returning |
| BROTHERS & SISTERS | ABC | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.26 | returning |
| LOST | ABC | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.59 | returning |
| GREY’S ANATOMY | ABC | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.70 | returning |
| DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES | ABC | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.96 | returning |
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Notes:
To remove clutter from the table, I have included only the day/timeslot with the most airings for According to Jim and Scrubs.
According to Jim: After 8 seasons, and recent horrible ratings, but presumably great sydication profits, ABC’s According to Jim looks like its prime-time run is coming to an end this season as one of the stars says the stage has been bulldozed. That seems pretty final to me.
Scrubs: Eight seasons is the end for Scrubs as well. Update: Or perhaps not. I am doubting that retraction, I believe he spoke the truth initially and then got his hand slapped and tried to backtrack. I’m keeping it marked as final season.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
It will be interesting to see how Surviving Suburbia does in the index. The finals from last night had it at a 2.4 – it’s consistently dropped about .2 in the demo each week, and didn’t start that high to begin with (a 3.0 I think?).
I just can’t believe how badly everything ABC premiered this season has done. I mean a .59 index for ITM? That’s atrocious.
what is the point of whacing tv anymore
e
Question on the new methodology: Are you using the overnights or the finals, because shows following Idol or any big ABC show will have a few minutes of the previous show and they change a lot in the finals.
Good question, Holly!
I appreciate the use of the rating over the viewer number, though.
Holly, the season averages I use are all final ratings that include both new and repeat airings in the regular time slot. I mentioned the overnight ratings because they are easier to compare with these lists now that I started using 18-49 ratings instead of 18-49 viewership numbers.
And to be clear, the methodology is unchanged. If you want to get the 18-49 viewership number (which I used earlier) just multiply the 18-49 rating by 1.32 million.
I get the value of using the rating point over the viewer numbers, but I just don’t know how fair it is to use 4.5 (the overnight) for the last episode Fringe instead of 4.0 (the final). That’s a huge difference. Granted, Fringe isn’t in any danger either way, but a 0.1 or 0.2 difference every week can make a significant difference for a bubble show.
Sorry, I was writing while you posted…Thanks for clearing that up for me.
Wow, in the reality departament ABC is doing good but in the scripted shows.. yikeks.
Why ABC picked up Surviving Suburbia still puzzles me… That show is probably the worst thing I’ve ever seen on TV in the past few years… It’s even worse than According to Jim. Why ABC put it after DWTS is really beyond comprehension… Samantha Who? is a perfect fit with DWTS, and I think ABC should consider putting Brothers & Sisters on Monday Nights at 10… That would be a great lineup (DWTS, Sam Who?, B&S), and it would also allow ABC to launch a new show after Housewives…
Okay I am fuzzy with all these numbers. If Castle’s numbers are better than Ugly Betty which is being renewed then why wouldn’t it be picked up also??? It is also better than Samantha Who? I personally think Castle is one of the most enjoyable new shows out there and it looks like it isn’t doing that bad with over 8. something million viewers a week. I guess I just don’t understand.
Jennifer,
From what is being said it is the 18-49 numbers that are not looking good overall and even though the average is currently 2.5 overall the last two weeks were 2.0 and 2.2 for the 18-49 ratings and the verdict is with those numbers it will be canceled.
For some reason 7-9 million weekly viewers is irrelevant even though that puts it usually in the top five to seven shows viewed on ABC weekly.
Lizard
Jennifer, Ugly Betty draws in the female demos. ABC has reportedly said that those demos are what’s saving Ugly Betty.
Jennifer, while I don’t know Bill and Robert’s exact reasoning behind this, I agree with it. “Castle” has been trending downward, and it is nowhere near the 9 share in 18-49 that a new show seems to need to survive in most time slots these days.
looks like ABC pulled Samantha / Motherhood’s episodes this weeek in favor of a Grey’s repeats
ABC and NBC got impatient Tuesday, yanking already tossed-aside series “Samantha Who,” “In the Motherhood” and “Kings” sooner than expected.
Alphabet net had already shortened the runs of “Motherhood” and “Samantha” by a week, opting to bring “Ugly Betty” back to the Thursday at 8 p.m. slot on April 30.
But “Motherhood” and “Samantha” were still slated to air one last episode this week – until ABC execs decided that they’d be better off with a repeat of “Grey’s Anatomy” leading into an original “Grey’s” at 9 p.m. Having been in repeats for a few weeks, “Grey’s” might have been hurt further by the weak numbers coming from “Motherhood” and “Samantha.”
That means last week’s “Motherhood” and “Samantha” segs wound up being the last of the season for both shows. “Motherhood” isn’t expected to return, but “Samantha” still has a decent shot at returning for a third season.
Seven episodes remain of this year’s “Samantha” order; those could either fold into next year’s order, or run this summer – should the show not make it on the fall sked.
Over at NBC, Peacock has opted to push the remaining seven segs of “Kings” to the summer. The show will now air on Saturdays at 8 p.m. from June 13 to July 25.
In the meantime, NBC will now air repeats of “Law & Order: SVU” at 8 p.m., followed by repeats of “Southland” at 9 p.m., on Saturdays. “Law & Order” repeats will then run at 10 p.m. That setup will last through May 16; “Law & Order: Criminal Intent” repeats will then run at 8 p.m. on May 23 and 30.
The “SVU” – “Southland” pairing is seen as a trial run for next fall; NBC could very well run the two gritty dramas together on Wednesdays.
Sucks a bit that King even lost it’s Saturday timeslot. But instead of pushing it back that far, why can’t they just air the episodes online? I don’t really think many of the viewers of Kings will care about it much in two months.
It’ll be a pity if Castle gets the chop, it’s one of the more intelligent shows on TV at the moment. If I were ABC I’d take a chance on giving Castle another small season of 10, maybe 13 episodes.
I’m really not happy with Better Off Ted’s numbers. This show is really enjoyable and I see it having room to grow (this could be ABC’s The Office, slow to start but picks up steam) the only problem with that thinking is ABC won’t nurture this show the way NBC did with The Office. I know NBC is no role model for any other network, but NBC does know how to do comedy.
The thought that “Better off Ted” won’t do well enough in the numbers to be picked up, but the godawful “Surviving Suburbia” just might makes me weep (again) for the future of this country.
What the hell is wrong with you people!?
I completely agree with you Jason. I guess people want mind-numbing boring TV. God forbid anything be truly funny on TV!
What I want to see is if Surviving Suburbia can manage to pull it half those numbers without the Dancing With the Stars lead in. I’m better it falls harder than Samantha Who
i definitely think that ABC is bringing back at least 1 of their mid-season shows, maybe even 2… its just has too many timeslots available this upcoming season and may want at least 1 new hr long show for it to seem like a seem not as bad. Best bet for that is Castle but in a different timeslot,
but The Unusuals could be the 2nd choice, depending on its numbers. Cupid tho is completely dead and so are In the Motherhood and Sam Who?
i think both are great shows but could do with a better lead in, i.e. GA or DH
changed my mind… Sam Who is probably going to be paired with Surviving Suburbia
Samantha Who and Surviving Suburbia are going to be back thanks for the DTWS lead-in they had.
Castle is safe! It just need to pull 2.3 or 2.4 in the 18-49.
In the Motherhood, Cupid and Better Off Ted are gone.
I still don’t know about The Unusuals. I want the show to succeed
From my vantage, ‘Cupid’ is still a longshot due to its superior retention levels out of the ‘DWTS’ and ‘Lost’ tentpoles vs. ‘Castle’, ‘Surviving Suburbia’, and ‘The Unusuals’. Also, given its limited cast and sparse location shooting, it is likely the low-cost 10 pm drama of ‘Castle’, ‘Cupid’ and ‘The Unusuals’…and cost/hour is the unseen hand guiding the fate of so many bubble series this year.
Another longshot is ‘Better Off, Ted’. I believe its future is tied to the rumoured additional season of ‘Scrubs’ (with Mr. Zack Braff as occasional guest star) that is being contemplated. Given its excellent retention and compatability, if ‘Scrubs’ gets renewed then a ‘Better Off Ted’ renewal has a high degree of likelihood.
ABCFanatic I really think you need to consider The Unusuals gone, it’s numbers are comparable to Cupids and that’s not a good thing. I doubt that Castle will be back either the way it’s declining week after week. I think the only thing to survive this season is Surviving Suburbia and that’s only because of the way Dancing With the Stars is and hour and a half, so it does a lot as a lead in for a sitcom. Without DWTS Suburbia would be gone as well.
Really can’t believe only 6 scripted shows in ABC has average more than 2.7 in the Network 18-49 Average thingy. ABC has the best scripted shows ever! Can’t Believe how Ugly Betty, Boston Legal, Pushing Daisies, Dirty Sexy Money and Eli Stone only get less than 2.5.
Private Practice and Surviving Suburbia aren’t really good programs but people watched them.
Hmm… ABC might regret canceling Life on Mars and Dirty Sexy Money! But, I have no idea… maybe pilots of next season will be so successful, that they will be covered in terms of good shows!
I question Samantha Who? coming back since it’s being pulled for a GA repeat. Private Practice will definitely be back, considering those numbers include repeats, which don’t do that great.
Melissa, Samantha Who? performed better behind DWTS than Surviving Suburbia has. ABC knows they can stick it there and it will put up the numbers, which is more than they can say about any other show. But they now know they can’t put it anywhere else. There were always episodes of SW? that were not scheduled to air this season and were reportedly being held for next season. While I’m not positive SW? will be back, pulling it from its current spot doesn’t say to me that it’s going to be canceled.
So Castle and Better Off Ted might be cancelled and Suburbia allowed to live? I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.
ABC is so bleeping STUPID. They don’t get that not all shows are immediate hits right out of the gate: so many have to be nurtured and let word of mouth get out (Seinfeld, House, Bones). If it’s not a Lost or a Grey’s, they want to cancel it. What they should do: move that horrid Surburbia crap and give that slot to Better off Ted or Samantha Who. I’ll bet that Suburbia will flounder in a heartbeat without DWTS to hold it up.
I think though the best suggestion is a comment I read on this site somewhere: what about keeping ABC’s struggling new shows as summer shows? That way they can show Castle and The Unusuals during the summer. These kinds of shows are perfect light summer fare and their numbers aren’t good enough for the regular season but are for the summer, and they can keep their seasons short and avoid filler episodes.
Speaking of Unusuals, how did it do last night?
I may have to eat this later, but Suburbia will NOT return. Its performance is worse behind DWTS than Samantha’s was in the fall… and Dancing was weaker at that point.
Honestly, I think Castle has a better shot at returning than Suburbia. And I don’t think Castle will be back.
Put Survivng somewhere else and it will do Jim numbers. ABC has to know that.
128, I hope you’re right just because I think it would amusing for ABC to cancel everything.
If you cancel everything you become NBC. Viewers have less faith that your new shows will stick around. Viewers hate watching bubble shows. That is why when a show officially gets on the bubble so often you see a drop in viewership. They don’t want to get emotionally tied to a show that they think won’t be around. It’s why Whedon’s statement that he was doubtful of the shows return could have signaled the end to his own show. He didn’t realize FOX was seriously considering renewal, but made a statement. The statement spread and his numbers did drop.
“Put Survivng somewhere else and it will do Jim numbers. ABC has to know that.”
Remind me how long has ABC kept Jim on the air…?
ABC has 28 new shows in development, I don’t see them saving any of the 3 dramas that are doing even worse than Boston Legal when they wanted to cancel it the first time. Boston Legal had going for it critical acclaim, and a guarantee of award nods, and eventual wins, and it was canceled.
I would not be surprised that the survivor is Better off Ted. With out a lead-in, last week it managed to have the same demo numbers that Castle made, is cheaper, and ABC does go out of it’s way to spin it’s numbers, they haven’t given up.
Suburbia has better numbers than BoT, but is doing worse than SW? did in that time slot. No reason to keep it when they have SW? with 7 episodes leftover, ready to return to the slot, with more critical acclaim, getting award nominations, and a in house production. If Suburbia survives it can only be because it given dirt cheap to ABC.
I still think Castle will be renewed. Also Better off Ted despite horrible ratings still has somewhat of a slim chance, just because maybe ABC likes the show.
I just don’t know why they would keep Ted from a business standpoint. It’s not in-house, and with only ten or so (less? too lazy to check right now) episodes the studio isn’t likely to offer it cheap.
My magic 8 ball is telling me the fate of all of ABC’s new shows.
Castle – renewed (13 episode pickup)
Surviving Suburbia – renewed (13 episode pickup)
True Beauty – renewed (8 episode pickup)
The Goode Family – cancelled (magic 8 ball does not need to see ratings)
Cupid – cancelled
The Unusuals – cancelled
In the Motherhood – cancelled
Homeland Security USA – cancelled
Better Off Ted – hazy, try again
Magic 8 Ball would very much like to see “Better Off Ted” receive a 13-episode stay of execution (heck, even a 7-episode one with the 6 holdovers tacked on), since it is the best new show of the season and probably the best comedy ABC has put on in a decade, but it is well aware that Steve McPherson would not know a good show if it punched him in the face.
The late prime time slot for Castle has been its death. FOX plays Bones early in the evening and if I had to pick a similar show that is currently on that would be it. A procedural with humor and couples chemistry. Maybe ABC should try the show in an earlier time slot so it can find that same audience?
I don’t buy that 10PM is a ratings killer, if people wanted to watch the show the DVR numbers would show an increase…correct me if I’m wrong but Castle doesn’t get a big boost from DVR viewing does it? Id it did I could see making the case to move it to an earlier time slot, but I highly doubt that will happen.
Networks have no patience anymore. There are a lot of great shows that started off poorly and ended up running for years (Hill St Blues, for instance). Both the Unusuals and Castle are pretty good shows. Of course, I like them, so they will invariable be cancelled before they have a chance to build an audience. I think I’ll go back to my usual policy of not watching new shows til they have been renewed and are in repeats. I hate getting attached to a good show, then having it yanked off the schedule.
I love Castle and the Unusuals seems to get better with each episode. I hope more people will give them a chance.
Just want to jump in and say that I love Better off Ted! I think it’s hilarious. Especially love Veronica, Phil and Lem.
same here i dont buy 10pm kills a show look at Crimanl Minds last night 13.55 million is good
I Hope that Samantha Who & The Unusuals are both picked up for the 2009-2010 season!!
ABC Can’t cancel ALL of their shows and plus, ABC has been annoying me lately because of their pulling of the Samantha Who episodes! THAT IS NO WAY TO TREAT A SHOW OF GREAT QUALITY!! and especially taking off Samantha Who? episodes for a REPEAT of Grey’s?? That doesn’t make sense!
I will restore my faith in ABC if they would PLEASE consider renewing Sam and The Unusuals because they are both great shows!
Samantha was doing better behind DWTS than all other shows in the timeslot so ABC has to remember that!!
ABC Can’t cancel ALL of their shows
ABC has more pilots than any other network. They most certainly can cancel “all” of their shows.
Well, canceling them all might be a bit extreme. I mean, Grey’s Anatomy is down, but it’s still worth keeping.
On the other hand, I think it’s quite possible they will cancel all their freshman shows and Samatha Who?.
Riff Rafferty — I agree with all of your predictions except maybe True Beauty. They can’t do the series again since the first time the people didn’t know they were competing for inner beauty, and now they will so it would seem illogical to do it again. I also agree that while Better off Ted is hazy in everyones opinion, its highly possible ABC can consider it for renewal. 13 episodes ordered combined with the left over 6 episodes from this year gets a fair 19 episodes for next year. So basically everything below and including Ugly Betty is coming back on the list and everything above and including Boston Legal is dead, possibly save for Ted.
Holly, that’s why I put all in quotation marks.
Looking at the index really makes me feel like a fool for picking Better Off Ted to return yesterday… but I gotta stick with it. Despite noticably better numbers, I still say Suburbia is gone instead.
As for True Beauty, believe me, with a ~3.0 demo and what has to be a low cost, ABC will find a way to bring it back if it wants to.
Don’t forget that Samantha Who? has sure Emmy bait in its two lead actresses (Smart and Applegate). That’s nothing to sneeze at. Is it known what ABC is going to pair with Better Off Ted after Scrubs ends? Is there a chance they could plop a couple of SW? episodes there so that they can promote a “season finale”?
My opinion is that SW? was only pulled because In the Motherhood was a stinking pile of garbage that needed to be cleared out ASAP and they didn’t have anything to pair SW? with. That won’t be true after Scrubs ends. Thoughts?
Kelly if they’re planning on bringing Better of Ted and/or Samantha Who? back next year then I think that they should pair the two shows up (even for a short time) when Scrubs ends to see how it pans out. Whether or not they want to bring either show back is another question completely.
Alex, I think that would be a good pair for next year. Unfortunately despite having 7 and 6 episodes apiece, theres no more room on the schedule this year for the two series to be paired together. In the unlikely event that both series got cancelled than ABC could pair em up this summer but thats not going to happen.
I just can’t see them dumping SW? lightly. It did better after DWTS than that awful Saget show has, it has a dream cast and two certain Emmy nominations (and a likely win in Supporting Actress with Smart), and ABC knows that by using it to lead OUT of the awful “Motherhood” (rather than into it) it was committing an inexplicable blunder. With all the extra episodes, I see ABC bringing it back next year with an order of 13 to put with the leftovers. And I think they put it on after DWTS again, where they know it will do well and where it has done better than its replacement.
Yes, I think pairing it with Better Off Ted after Scrubs ends is a likely scenario, given that they’d want to promote a season finale if it’s coming back.
Dan, if that’s true, then what is ABC airing Wednesdays at 8/7 (the whole hour) after Scrubs ends? I have no information on that and haven’t been able to find it
When does Scrubs end? And how many episodes of Better off Ted did ABC order?
Alex, BoT is over next week. Scrubs in two weeks.
So again, what is ABC airing after that for the rest of May? I can’t get that information anywhere.
What I’m asking is this, and I really want to know if anybody knows this–WHAT IS ABC AIRING FOR THE REST OF MAY after the Scrubs finale on May 6 in the Wed. 8/7 time slot? And why wouldn’t pairing leftover episodes of BoT and SW? be an option there? I think ABC is going to renew SW? and if that’s true, they will want to promote a season finale. So what they plan to air in that slot after May 6 is a very relevant question.
Kelly they can’t air Better off Ted with Samanatha Who? after Scrubs has finished if they don’t have anymore Better off Ted episodes to air after next week. As far as what ABC airs on Wednesday after the comedy block ends I don’t really know. I suppose they could burn off the remianing Samantha Who episodes they have but I won’t hold my breath on that.
I suspect they’ll go back to airing Lost repeats at 8 leading into brand new Lost at 9 – I think that might even have done better numbers than the original comedy block has done.
Kelly, ABC is airing a repeat of LOST on the 13th, Pirates of the Caribbean on the 20th and then Wipeout starts on the 27th.
This information is easily found in any one of the numerous sites that have TV guides. http://thefutoncritic.com/ is a good source.
What? “Better Off Ted” did 13 episodes.
# Prod. # Airdate Episode Title
—————————————–
1. 1APX79 18 Mar 09 Pilot
2. 1APX01 25 Mar 09 Heroes
3. 1APX02 1 Apr 09 Through Rose Colored HAZMAT Suits
4. 1APX03 8 Apr 09 Racial Sensitivity
5. 1APX07 15 Apr 09 Win Some, Dose Some
6. 1APX08 22 Apr 09 Goodbye, Mr. Chips
7. 1APX06 Get Happy
8. 1APX04 Jabberwocky
9. 1APX05 You Are the Boss of Me
10. 1APX09 The Disshuffle
11. 1APX10 Trust & Consequences (a.k.a. Deleted Email)
12. 1APX11 Father Can You Hair Me?
13. 1APX12 Secrets and Lives
Kelly, “Wipeout” returns May 27. May 20 is one of the “Pirates of the Caribbean” films. May 13 was to be a repeat of “Lost.” I am assuming, thanks to Obama’s blather, that the one-hour “Scrubs” finale will be pushed back a week and replace that. I didn’t get the memo yet, though.
Sniped by… many many minutes. Heh.
Riff, I assume ABC did what they did with Greys. They ordered 13 episodes, but are only airing the first seven as season one. If it is renewed, the rest will be tacked on to season two. Otherwise, DVD.
Since Victor Fresco can’t catch a break, I assume ABC will throw several episodes into the trash and there will be no DVD. Since that’s happened with, well, you know, all of his shows. (Except for “Andy Richter Controls the Universe,” which finally made it to DVD last month.)
But I haven’t give up complete hope yet. Ted’s got a couple things working in its favor.
Its kinda interesting all the Samantha/Ted pairing talk, because those were the two sitcoms I picked yesterday to be renewed by ABC, but I hadn’t thought of them getting paired together this season, and I think the more likely scenario would be next year (assuming they are renewed) that Samantha would be paired with a more female-centric sitcom and Ted with a more male-centric one.
I’ve never watched either one, but does anyone know if they would work ok together? I assumed the audiences would be a little different, but maybe they could work together.
And if ABC does can all its sitcoms, has any network ever done that before? Zero for 6? That would be so bad.
The problem I see is how can you debut a new show in March? New shows typically debut in the fall or January/February for the Spring season. Debuting a new show like Castle, Surviving Suburbia and The Unusuals in March/April I don’t see working at all. People have already decided which shows they’re going to watch and I don’t see new shows really making it at all then. After all March/April aren’t sweeps months so less viewers watching to start with. They used to be months full of repeats but the trend to not show repeats but only new episodes means that there were mostly new episodes of established series when these new series debuted.
I just don’t get why people love reality tv so much. i watched Laguna. That was cool. They showed the ocean, and it was really a lovely town. But most reality shows suck. People realy just love comedy so darn much? Of all the shows doing well, the only one Ill watch is Fringe. I seriously don’t even know how they count because I usually watch everything online. I watch Supernatural, Fringe, Dollhouse, Ugly Betty and that it. Of those Supernatural id my favorite. I wish the networks had a bit of loyalty to the shows instead of always figuring people want something new. If the networks keep yanking shows like this, no one will watch tv at all. No one will want to get into something just to have it taken away. I think they are shooting themselves in the ass.
Yup. Just what Trashinlv said. Networks have no with shows. they seem to think that a new show will do better then an old one, but thats changing, sure people were curious about new shows when there weren’t too many, and you could count on a show to be around for a while. But not anymore. No one is interested in new shows because they know that its a bad idea to start watching, itll just get cancelled righ when you are starting to like it. If networks ceep this up people will stop watching. Period. they better start showing some patience with the shows they already have. You know the best thing they could do is just hang on to their shows longer. Shows pick up fans as time goes by.
The series finale of Scrubs is one hour on May 6 at 8, after that its possible a Lost recap will air on the 13 and 20, i’m not %100 but the comedy night ends on May 6 and Ted ends April 29.
OK, so ABC would just pull “Samantha Who?” and possibly bring it back next season without even touting a season finale? Given Smart’s Emmy and the ratings retention it held after DWTS (significantly better than the insipid Saget show), I just find that difficult to believe, but I guess they are throwing poor Sam under the bus. Pity, too, Christina Applegate has been crapped on so much recently, she didn’t deserve this.
the128boy
The CW actually shut down its comedy department hence every one hates chris = cancelled , the game tried to change their format to 1 hour drama to stay but failed
T, but that’s 2 to 0. Big difference from 6 to 0.
It won’t be 6-0. I think all the evidence points to SW? coming back in the fall, even if it’s just to air the remaining episodes after DWTS. They’ll order a few new ones too. Smart and Applegate both get Emmy nominations again, that is certain and bankable. I just find ABC’s reasoning on pulling it completely without even finding space for one new episode to promote as a season finale rather mystifying. They had to have known that “In the Motherhood” was crap and that SW? should have led INTO it instead of out of it.
I enjoy SW?, but it’s not my favorite show. I do see its fate as tied to that of the sitcom genre generally, though. If a winningly written single-camera show with attractive stars and America’s Sweetheart as the lead can’t do it–then what can? Christina Applegate is a VERY sympathetic figure and ABC knows this. I’m really curious and impatient to hear the official word of this show’s ultimate fate.
Kelly I’m not entirely sure why you think all signs point to Samantha Who being renewed.
I don’t believe that it is a lock that the show will get Emmy nominations again (it isn’t 30 Rock) but even if it does I’m not at this point sure that’s enough to convince ABC to keep it. The show has proven to be completely dependent on Dancing With The Stars to pull even mediocre ratings so I’m not entirely sure what the attraction to keeping it around is.
Ultimately I think if ABC keeps any of their current 30 minute comedies around then its Surviving Suburbia, which is poised to become the new According to Jim.
KellyH, no offense but when did Christina Applegate become “America’s sweetheart?”
Seriously. When? Because I’m rather sure she isn’t. If she was I’m sure America would watch the show a heck of a lot more. If you ask the majority of Americans who Christina Applegate is the vast majory will still answer “the slutty blonde from MARRIED WITH CHILDREN.”
On the plus side Nick that response is better than – Who the hell is Christina Applegate…?
She’s the “brave actress who survived breast cancer and the death of a former boyfriend,” ergo “America’s Sweetheart.”
Surviving Suburbia (aka, the awful Saget show) is performing worse after DWTS than SW? did, so I don’t understand that reasoning. ABC killed SW? by leading it out of “In the Motherhood” when it should have led into it–if they in fact “killed it.”
This blog still has it as a likely renewal, so let’s go with that for now.
Samantha Who? will be back, hopefully on a new night. Castle will return too. One of two scenarios would come out for Better off Ted. 1 is ABC will renew the series and hold 6 episodes over for next year, maybe pair it with Samantha Who?, 2 is that ABC will just axe the series and if were lucky they’ll burn off the episodes in the summer. Either one can happen, Its possible ABC will cut Ted some slack because its been airing after Scrubs and retained most of its lead in.
Kelly I think its worth remembering that the Samantha Who average in the chart includes the episodes leading out of Dancing With The Stars, when you look at just the episodes leading out of In The Motherhood the average is more like a 1.6/1.7, which is pretty much where In The Motherhood is. I think Samantha Who is safe if ABC is prepared to prop it up with Dancing With The Stars next year if however they intend to keep Surviving Suburbia in that spot then I suspect Samantha Who’s renewal decision has to be made of that 1.7 average and in that situation its gone.
“Riff Rafferty — I agree with all of your predictions except maybe True Beauty. They can’t do the series again since the first time the people didn’t know they were competing for inner beauty, and now they will so it would seem illogical to do it again.”
If somebody can do a second season of “The Joe Schmo Show,” they can do a second season of this. Besides, it’s called “True Beauty,” not “True Brains.” The people the producers found were pretty close to retarded.
And its not like a lot of people actually watched True Beauty first time around anyway…
I definitely think Eli Stone was an under rated show that didn’t get much love. Castle is a good show also but things aren’t looking good for the writer/crime solver.
I love both The Unusuals and Castle. I generally avoid ABC as it’s just a soap factory but those two shows are a lot of fun and keep getting better.
Samantha Who? and Surviving Suburbia (for now) look likely, but not Castle? Ugly Betty got renewed as well with lower numbers.
@heradite, exactly because UB got saved that it looks less likely that ABC would keep another 1 hour show with bad ratings. UB filled the quota for the show that gets another chance.
Heradite I don’t think Samantha Who does look likely although I think its possible but in general Samanatha Who and Surviving Suburbia are both more likely than Castle because they’re 30 minute comedies, which are cheaper to produce than 60 minute dramas and therefore have a lower bar to clear to become profitable. Networks tend to be more willing to let 30 minute comedies run with lower numbers than hour long shows.
Does Castle really cost that much more to produce than the half hour comedies? It has no name stars (Fillion is probably the most well known, and only as a cult star), no big action scenes, explosions, special effects, and it shoots mostly on soundstages in Los Angeles. Not exactly Kings, which supposedly costs $3-4 million per episode. I doubt cost will be a critical factor over ratings and demos when it comes to renewing or cancelling this show.
I don’t know what to think of Castle’s renewal chances anymore. I admit the first few episodes didn’t grab me but I think the show’s really hit its stride lately and become really fun to watch and rewatch (and from what I’ve read from fans online, lots of fans rewatch online). All the numbers sites like this one and Berman’s are signalling its death knell, but other sites I’m going, I see plenty of fans asking for a renewal, it getting the most votes in polls for show that should be renewed. It seems to be getting more positive word of mouth than Unusuals, which I keep reading mixed reviews of, and its online buzz seems to be growing too – fan videos on youtube, fanfic, etc. But as long as it doesn’t come right after DWTS, I don’t believe its nielsen numbers are going to get any better unless maybe if ABC finds an earlier timeslot for it someplace with a better lead in (I’ve read so many comments saying while people love the show, it’s just on too late for them to watch live on a Monday night so they dvr or watch online the next day). So I don’t see a clear “renewal” or “cancellation” vibe from this show yet.
Maybe ABC will consider bringing it back next midseason and give it one more chance? Or use it as backup for whatever new pilots fail next season?
Alex said this:
“Kelly I think its worth remembering that the Samantha Who average in the chart includes the episodes leading out of Dancing With The Stars, when you look at just the episodes leading out of In The Motherhood the average is more like a 1.6/1.7, which is pretty much where In The Motherhood is. I think Samantha Who is safe if ABC is prepared to prop it up with Dancing With The Stars next year if however they intend to keep Surviving Suburbia in that spot then I suspect Samantha Who’s renewal decision has to be made of that 1.7 average and in that situation its gone.”
Again, I don’t really understand the reasoning here, since Samantha’s post-Dancing ratings were better than Suburbia’s. Why would they keep the awful Suburbia there when they could move the clever SW? back there, given that SW? drew better numbers in the spot AND is generally better regarded critically? And I know I keep mentioning it, but Smart’s Emmy (even without repeat nominations for her and Applegate) is a huge check in the show’s favor. The Smart win was in a major acting category against pretty stiff competition. She had previously won a guest acting Emmy for “Frasier” if I remember correctly.
We also don’t know how SW? would have done at the beginning of the hour rather than halfway through it. In the second half-hour of that slot you have stuff like the “Survivor” tribal council that tends to tick that show’s numbers up in its second half. I don’t understand ABC’s reasoning leading into an established show with a new one that they must have known was a stinker based solely on the bad press before the premiere.
If I remember correctly Samantha had a solid 6.5 million for two episodes aired back to back without a Dancing lead-in back in December…
I just don’t wee why ABC would put Suburbia back after DWTS instead of Samantha given all of this, unless they’re having some sort of a fetish with the AFHV pairing of Bergeron and Saget.
SO ABSOLUTELY ANNOYING that ABC continues to cancel good shows – I LOVED Life on Mars & it’s gone. Same for Pushing Daisies… and now Castle also!?!
Crap – why do I even bother with any network shows?
despite what this rating says, i’m betting that at least Castle (and The Unusuals if I guessed another show) are coming back next season…
Castle for its somewhat decent ratings and The Unusuals because i think the execs there love it and want to give it a chance
If Castle is at .93 and last years cutoff was .92 and Samantha Who has even less and you are predicting renewal then WHY are you predicting cancellation for Castle? Simply because it doesn’t retain the entire DWTS audience? Seriously, I’m amazed they expect it to. Those are VERY different style shows. I can’t stand DWTS but I tune in for Castle. Though I DO think DVR’s should be taken into consideration. I barely ever watch a show when it is airing anymore. I’m either busy or I’d rather just be watching something where I can fast forward through the commercials. I’ll watch something I’ve dvr’d while my favorite show is airing simply so when I go to watch my favorite show I can fast forward through commercials and get to the good stuff faster.
April, Castle’s average is much higher than it’s latest results. It’s on a sharply downward trend. DVR numbers from the airdate are taken into account with these numbers. Airdate DVR viewing is typically about half the total DVR viewing.
I dont get u guys Castle is higher rated then “Samantha Who?” and “Ugly Betty” and u renew “Ugly betty” and might “Samantha Who?” but u put “Castle” in danger. Why??? “Castle” has proven that they are a good show and they have proven that they’re doing better then “Ugly Betty” and “Samantha Who?”
Stacey, we know more about the data above than you do. Plus, choices with 30 minute sitcoms are a bit different (Sam Who?) As for Ugly Betty, it’s already been renewed, and its average contains repeats. Plus Betty fares OK w/women 18-34, which ABC likes.
Meanwhile Castle’s numbers don’t contain repeats and have slid since the first couple of weeks and at this point, even if it levels off, its average above will continue to drop.
Ok, but i have a question
From right now Castle only has 2 more episodes of the season so if they have their ratings and viewers rise or stay the same will they be able to have a second season? Also do u watch castle and others?
Stacey, if Castle remains at 2.1 like it did last week I don’t think it has a shot. If it were to suddenly jump to 2.5 and above for the last two episodes, it might make a difference. But I think the chances of that happening are just about zero.
But is no fair really Surviving Suburbia started during Castle’s 5th episode so in other words doesnt Surviving Suburbia get a better chance because of that. The ABC and viewers arent able to see more episodes and rate they could hate the next 5 episodes of Surviving Suburbia and like Castle. Its not that fair to Castle.