Commenter Richard Steven Hack posed the following question in the comments:
This comment from the article: “A longer shot at returning: “Dollhouse,” which has posted predictably low ratings on Friday. But Fox executives are holding out a glimmer of hope for the show, noting its loyal core and its strong DVR numbers.”
Obviously he talked to the same people Nick C did with regard to Dollhouse.
Should we take it that if Dollhouse is renewed, then Fox at least is indeed paying attention to DVR and other measurements, and that if it is not renewed, that the numbers once again are proven definitive?
The short answer to this question is: yes, if FOX renews Dollhouse, it is obviously paying attention to something besides the ratings measurements we make our predictions based on. While I wouldn’t say that if it’s not renewed that the numbers will once again be proven definitive, I would say that if it isn’t renewed we will continue to rely heavily on the numbers until we’re given a reason not to.
I wanted to address the issue of the DVR viewing though, and it wound up so long I figured I’d just do a separate post.
Time could prove my thinking wrong, and it would definitely be more interesting if it did, but for now, my mind doesn’t grapple with “if Dollhouse is renewed” any more effectively than it grappled with “If Lipstick Jungle is renewed…” I mostly see the talk is just that, talk. TV is a sales business, and positive spin/putting lipstick on the ratings (as opposed to quality) pigs seems the rule, rather than the exception. It’s just in their DNA.
When it comes to Dollhouse renewal, with my FOX executive hat on, I think the most important components are (in ranked order):
- Live/same day DVR viewing (I’d say the C3 commercial viewing ratings, but we don’t see that data)
- Potential for DVD Sales
- Viewing by high income homes
- DVR Viewing beyond the same day the show aired
- Online viewing
In the case of Dollhouse, there could be some legitimate noodling over potential DVD sales, but I doubt Dollhouse will be given any special renewal consideration as a result of its DVR viewership. Dollhouse doesn’t really have spectacular DVR numbers. It has good DVR numbers, and relative to the overall viewing, a very high percentage of DVR viewers. It also ranks fairly well (18th, for the week ending April 5) in terms of 18-49 ratings boost over and above live plus same day DVR ratings we commonly report, once a full week of DVR viewing is factored in.
Dollhouse is no Lost or House – and I don’t think anyone is expecting it to be — when it comes to Live+7 adults 18-49 rating versus Live+SD rating. For the April 3rd episode of Dollhouse, the full week of DVR viewing boosted its LIVE+SD 18-49 rating from 1.46 to 1.96 (by comparison LOST went from a 4.3 to a 5.25) . Again, on a ratings point increase basis, that would’ve ranked 18th for the week. Not bad at all. The problem is, even with that boost, when you look at Dollhouse’s adults 18-49 ranking for Live+7 viewers, it was 51st. Nothing to get really excited about.
Given the small total audience, the DVR viewing is impressive, but the problem is, it still winds up with a small total audience. From what i gather, the viewing that occurs on the FOX web site and Hulu is pretty good for online viewing (I’ve now heard ranges as wide as 100,000-250,000 per episode) but probably not good enough to make a difference in renewal.
There is one metric I haven’t seen that could play into it, and that’s how well Dollhouse does in households with high annual income. I’m guessing that if it were faring particularly well by that metric, we’d already have heard some TV-speak about it. But I haven’t seen those numbers, and if they’re good, it could play a role. Outside of that, short of very high hopes for DVD sales, I don’t see the math that adds up to renewal.
As for the DVR numbers, if more people were watching the show live or even on DVR the same night, it might be different. If the 18-49 rating was being boosted from a 2.0 to a 2.5, or even a 1.6 to a 2.1, the .5 boost might perhaps be enough. But for this past Friday, assuming DVR viewing held steady, we’re looking at a boost from a 1.2 to a 1.7 (or a 1.3 to a 1.8 if it went up to a 1.3 in the final numbers). So for now, while it makes for a good vehicle for spin, and looks good on both a % increase and boost to Live+SD rating basis, on an absolute basis it still doesn’t look so good. Even for Fridays.
Since spin seems such a critically important component of the TV world, spinning the cancellation (and blaming the ratings) seems much easier than spinning the renewal.
why would they renew dollhouse? The ratings and the show itself suck, if you are gonna renew a low rated show at least do a quality one
I think you should add the following component on your list:
6) The day and timeslot of the show
Question: -1.9 or 2.0 18-49 live+7 numbers might not be so bad for fridays or saturdays?
http://www.economist.com/business/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13528310
An interesting article about DVR usage
“…DVR-owning households earn about $20,000 more than average. Yet those households do not use them nearly as much as one might expect. Families with DVRs seem to spend 15-20% of their viewing time watching pre-recorded shows, and skip only about half of all advertisements. This means only about 5% of television is time-shifted and less than 3% of all advertisements are skipped. Mitigating that loss, people with DVRs watch more television…
Hagi, the problem with that argument is that 1.9-2.0 would be decent for Friday in Live+SD, but when you compare it to everything else in Live+7 numbers, it only looks a tiny bit better than it did with its horrible Live+SD numbers. (This is why I was hoping Robert would keep the DVR charts as showing the top 20 Live+7 shows, rather than anything to do with amount of increase. It’s a far more useful chart to look at than percentage increase.)
The past participle of “prove” is still “proved,” I say.
Actually, imho, a comparison of the live+x numbers of the shows based on timeslot and day will be usefull to discuss their fate.
Boris, Merriam-Webster says you’re wrong, though if it means anything to you, apparently the 19th century grammarians took your stance.
Julia, since Bill does the weekly DVR posts you can try lobbying him. Doing the top twenty Live+7 is easy, but it is extra work to show how the live+7 numbers changed the rankings. Total DVR and % viewing via DVR are both somewhat interesting, but those are the only things I think worthwhile to calculate off the Live numbers. any % increase to ratings/viewers are less confusing/more easily interpreted if they are calculated off of Live+SD since live+SD numbers are everywhere and live numbers are only in the DVR posts. However, if we abandoned percentage increases altogether, there would be a whole lot of shows that you’d never see any data for. The top 20 live+7 wouldn’t look much different than the top 20 live+sd.
Hagi, since Dollhouse was already on Fridays its day of week/time slot were already in my thinking. With a .5 live+7 bump, I still think it needs to be a 1.6 w/Live+SD to be interesting to FOX, even on a Friday. I could be wrong about that. But whether the line for live+sd is 1.7 or 1.5, I’m pretty sure it’s not 1.3. we’ll see.
The top 20 live+7 wouldn’t look much different than the top 20 live+sd.
Which is the point that I think a lot of people need to figure out.
Robert Seidman says:
“Boris, Merriam-Webster says you’re wrong, though if it means anything to you, apparently the 19th century grammarians took your stance.”
MW doesn’t really say that anyone is wrong, aside from those who say that *anything* is wrong. It’s a descriptivist lexicon with a strong interest in suggesting that that’s the end of the story.
Hey, why are your numbers always different from other sites? And is it true that DVR numbers arent released until 3 weeks after the original air date?
What numbers are different?
The rating share numbers. every site had different numbers and averages.
The sad thing is, Julia, they never will. I’m *still* seeing “ZOMG HUEG % DVR INCREASE” reports about T:SCC, completely glossing over the fact that its live+7 is still in the toilet, relative to everything else.
TT, the numbers posted daily on this site are the preliminary overnight numbers. The final numbers that are released later in the day (and posted on other sites) will often change slightly (or greatly depending on the circumstances). Could that be the difference you are referring to? Can you give us some examples of different numbers?
As for DVR numbers, they are released two weeks after the finals for the week are released, which is Tuesdays, so it can be up to three weeks and one day, or as little as two weeks and two days, depending what day the show you are looking for information on aired.
Holly, I’m not sure if this is what you’re asking about, but the week Bill was on vacation, I published very different slices of the DVR viewing implications than Bill normally posts. If you click the DVR navigation link above and check out both posts, you’ll see the differences.
I think Holly was addressing TT.
i have to admit that i lost myself about dollhouse’s renuwal changes, 3-4 weeks ago. but dollhouse will be renewed for the next year. maybe the episode 10 or the premise of episode 11, but this show will be renewed. its the best show on friday, with low rating and bad critics, but it will be renewed. i know it. i fell it. this show is going to rock next year. yes, ONLY ON FOX!
I DON T CARE DVR ( I DONT HAVE IT..), OR HULU. IT WILL BE RENEWED. and you all know it too, there’s a post about the show on this site every day!!
Ah.
@Julia, i’m talking about the ratings i see on zap2it, hitfix, buzzsugar, etc. everyone has different #s. Why doesnt Nielsen release their own numbers besides the top 20 shows of the week.
TT, because Nielsen is a business designed to sell its data, not give it away. Those sites (at least some of them) use Household rating/share which measures the percentage of TV homes in the US that tuned in. We don’t really use that for anything here, but along with total viewers, it is very commonly reported.
edit: I do post the HH Rating/share final numbers in the weekly broadcast top 20, and the weekly top shows by network (see ABC, CBS, etc in the navigation above)
Ok, I see the problem. Sites like zap2it and hitfix use the household rating, which is the percentage of households in the US that are watching something. This site uses total viewers (which is different from total households) and demo ratings.
Edit: Robert wins.
i know they’re in the business of selling their data… how many more years until Nielsen is ousted and a 21st century TV rating scale is implemented.
Robert, do you revise your initial day after ratings and factor in the DVR C3 and C7 data? (i’m new to the site)
Robert, I was referring to TT’s question.
And apparently need to refresh before answering…
TT, how many years before a competitor comes along and provides the networks and the advertisers data they prefer to use instead of Nielsen’s? There are several providers of data, but all indications are, it’s being purchased in addition to, not instead of the Nielsen data.
We do not go back and revise old posts with new data. The overnight posts are preliminary. The weekly data is all Live+SD final numbers, and the DVR data is Live+7. .
how many more years until Nielsen is ousted and a 21st century TV rating scale is implemented.
It’ll be a while, and the most likely outcome is that Nielsen will continue to innovate as it has over the course of its history, and will be the source of any 21st century TV rating scale. And it will continue to be discarded as biased and unfair by fans of struggling shows, but used as the metric every show must live or die by.
i’m curious if there is any information about how much dollhouse costs to make?
as in, would fox consider renewing the show to “redeem” itself in the eyes of many? for another season (or midseason replacement) would the potential upside to having people (whedon fans) “forgive” fox for their past ways and potentially give the show more eyes?
i can only assume that the show is somewhat pricey, but i’d be interested to find out where it falls on a scale w/other fox shows that they seem to love i.e. fringe and lie to me, both shows that (i like) but i imagine would pull near the same ratings were they stranded on friday night far from the pull of idol….
Sarg, I’ve heard everything from 1.4 to 2.5 million per episode. But I have no real idea or how it stacks up against Fringe and Lie to Me. I doubt appeasing loyal Whedon fans factors into the renewal decision.
If fox were really serious about reinstituing a sci fi friday they’d move Fringe over there… I dont think the Fox executives had high hopes for Friday anyway – their shows performed. Women watch Ghost Whisperer on Friday, families watch Wife Swap or the family friendly Howie Do It. It doesnt leave too much for TSCC or Dollhouse. That’s why TGIF worked so well in the 90s, they were family friendly sitcoms not dramas that make you think or offer a different perspective. TSCC and Dollhouse would do a lot better on different nights.
As far as Dollhouse renewals, i’ve never seen the show and have only heard mixed things about it but if Fox does the un-Fox like thing and renews any Friday night show i’d say it’d probably be TSCC. Here’s why.
They know TSCC can attract an average of 5.5M an episode on another night – i dont know how accurate this is but i’ve heard 7 day DVR #s push TSCC up into the 4.5 -5M range. Terminator Salvation is rated PG-13, you may not think its important but it is, with a PG-13 rating the viewing audience is wider than a stricter R rating. Millions of people are going to watch it this summer, and millions of fans are going to get interested in the franchise again. New fans will be interested. They’ll go back and buy TSCC season 1 and 2 on DVD/Blu Ray. This leads to the WB being a smart company, they know how to milk something until it’s dry. (Smallville’s still on the air! And clark cant even fly yet!) and they would no doubt drop their licensing fee to help keep a cash cow on the air. It worked with Sony and the stupid Til Death show. They’ll recoup the money off of DVD sales and selling the rights to foreign markets. They’ve already made millions of preorders for TSCC season 2.
I cant say the same for Dollhouse… Whedon shouldnt even mess with TV anymore, just straight cable because he keeps getting screwed.
All this depends on Fox, not acting like Fox. With Kevin Reilly at the head, who knows.
agreed, but as many of the shows whedon has done they have a core following and the dvd sales still hang strong after all these years firefly is consistently hanging around the top 100 tv on dvd sales…just curious, thought being that if it was cheap enough would the upside outweigh the cost on many levels. i for one would think that someone (whedon) with a core group of fans (obsessive) would be a known variable as opposed to putting an unknown show from an unknown creator in the slot could potentially be worse. although it could hit and then yeah!
TT, fairly accurate as far as TSCC’s L7 numbers go. The last episode we saw data for it was in the 4.3 million range with a week of DVR factored in, but it was performing a bit better earlier in its Friday run.
Sarg, I think it more likely FOX goes back to repeats and unscripted programming for Fridays. If the DVD sells very well, I think regardless of what FOX announces next month, you won’t have heard the last of it.
I don’t really know how to quantify the Firefly comparisons. It seems like Firefly appealed to a broader group of science fiction fans than Dollhouse does, but my perception could be off..
the cursed reality!
one last q, and then i’ll stop hijacking a DVR thread w/sales questions…often it seems as though shows are left off the upfronts, but not explicitly canceled, a likely scenario for TSCC (b/c of the movie opening) but what is the actual potential for either show to return were that to be the case?
Re: Nielsen, I’ve never quite understood peoples’ complaints regarding it – I haven’t done in-depth research on how they get their numbers (although I obviously understand the way it works) but I would assume that as the company that the networks go to to get data they’ve got getting a solid representation of what people are watching down to a science. The methods they use might seem old-fashioned now, but does anyone really think that if the data collection procedure was changed shows like ‘Dollhouse’ or ‘Chuck’ would experience a severe turnaround (btw, I enjoy both shows although I probably couldn’t be considered a devoted viewer).
I understand that with the progression of TV-related technology it’s easier to collect data, but I see that changing how advertisers reach/target viewers than changing the viewership numbers.
DVR doesn’t amke any difference, the show isn’t coming back. FOX will have made there plans for next year by now and theres a 100% chance Dollhouse won’t be on it.
it seems like shows are almost never explicitly labeled canceled. If we don’t see them on the schedule, and no mention is made of them, we’ll assume they’re canceled.
And in regards to Dollhouse vs. Firefly, I think the supposed broader appeal of the latter boils down to the simplicity of their respective concepts. I’m not advocating for more simplicity in TV shows, but the mythology of Firefly was much easier to grasp for someone jumping on late. And speaking personally, I found the cast of Firefly more appealing and I enjoyed the somewhat lighter tone.
@patrick i certainly agree that i find/found firefly’s cast more appealing, i just know that there are plenty of rabid whedon fans out there who would watch him or any of the former stars of his shows read the phone book…
i just wonder if fox will allow dollhouse the time that it allowed buffy, the show was pretty terrible it’s first season and didn’t really hit its stride until season 3 or so
Sure a 1.2 is the final nail in the coffin. How come u guys dont have pages like this for TSCC? U really are a anti TSCC site.
JP, there have been many articles discussing why nothing can save TSCC. Which is why the fans think this is an anti-TSCC site. Are you under the misconception that this article is saying Dollhouse actually has a shot?
Hmm.. I really don’t know why Dollhouse gets so much attention on this site. It will get renewed only if FOX has a serious soft spot for it that goes beyond the question of profit margins, and how realistic is that?
When it comes to post-Nielson issues like DVR and online viewing, Dollhouse does not have the kind of fanbase that Chuck and T:TSCC have. I’m sorry but surfing the internet for 5 minutes will tell you that. If I was a FOX exec I would definitely consider T:TSCC the smarter choice for renewal, if nothing else it has “Terminator” in the title as does Terminator: Salvation and the other up-coming Terminator movies. It is a show with a hardcore fanbase and a name that has far more potential to attract new fans in the coming season than an already withering Dollhouse. T:TSCC may also get some major lobbying from WB for the sake of the franchise as a whole whereas Dollhouse has nothing in that department.
I don’t think it really boils down to T:TSCC vs. Dollhouse though – I’d guess the bigger issue is that Fox is probably realizing they can’t do anything with Fridays. Moving Fringe to try and keep “sci-fi night” alive would be the worst decision they could make, considering they could easily kill a new success that they seem to be invested in.
I’d also question how much of a bump T:TSCC would get from ‘Terminator: Salvation.’ as far as i know the movie and the series have no direct connection other than a shared character and don’t feature the same actors. I agree that WB is probably pushing it hard based on those factors though, so we’ll see.
t.v.nerguy, I think you answered your own questions in the first paragraph above: Why does Dollhouse get so much attention? Because someone at FOX has a serious soft spot for it – or serious guilt over that whole Joss Whedon/Firefly thing. In every bit of “chatter” regarding Dollhouse, there are hopeful musings attributed to unnamed FOX execs. Those musings include mentions of good DVR data, DVD sales (which we can’t really predict yet), profitability (though they’re vague on how that can happen when ratings are so low), committing to scripted programming for Fridays, and building a “sci fi” night. I wouldn’t doubt that one, or maybe two, particular execs are instigating all the hopeful chatter. So one or two “soft spots” may be the entire reason we are discussing this show.
As to Dollhouse attention on this specific site, I can only offer my own perception. People are very curious to see FOX’s decision on something that was so highly promoted but so poorly rated as Dollhouse. If Dollhouse is renewed, we’ll want to know the logic process that led to such a decision.
@patrick, clutz Fox cant do anything w/Fridays because they havent invested in them outside of their crappy reality sitcoms and game shows. CBS has, which is why they’re doing good for Friday. The Friday night X-Files/glory days are over and the chances of it returning are slim if Fox doesnt give their Friday shows time to build and they havent. I was being sarcastic about Fringe moving though… Running family friendly programs on Friday will help since that’s the majority that’s home that night.
As far as TSCC and Dollhouse, TSCC just has more potential than Dollhouse. It doesnt matter if it’s related the movie or not doesnt matter, it has Terminator in the title. Nuff said. After the blockbuster movie people are going to be into all things Terminator. Especially since it’s PG-13. As an example, my co-workers 17 year old daughter (who’s 3 years younger than me – just showing the age difference with me and my co-workers) and her 16 year old brother didnt really have a clue about the Terminator franchise. I talked with them a little and they watched T2 and tada, they love it. A few weeks later their mom was complaining about them clogging up the DVR with TSCC eps. I keep saying the WB is smart and that’ll play a factor with Fox as well.
Hey, i’m hoping Fox/Kevin Reilly saves both shows…
I guess the ultimate question is if Friday nights are worth investing in other than cheap family shows. CBS is successful on Fridays, but their demo numbers aren’t that amazing – if the demo isn’t watching TV on Friday, why bother putting shows aimed at younger people there? No matter how much you let shows build, you can’t change viewing habits (and just because The X-Files was a fluke doesn’t mean it can happen again).
Hey X-files was also given several seasons to build up its audience and it was marketed very well. If you’re serious about Friday nights you have to make sacrifices in the short run to reep some benefits in the long run. I still think that the Dollhouse premise has gotten stale though, and I think Teminator has a lot more potential. Seriously, what can Dollhouse do after the Alpha confrontation? WHAT?
oddly enough, but for shits and giggles today i’ve been keeping an eye on pre-orders for dollhouse (just picked up firefly on blu-ray and decided to pre-order this at the same time) and literally since i ordered this morning at 11 eastern, it has gone from being unranked, to #82 in the amazon top 100.
someone, somewhere has apparently been reading how DVD sales may be the last thing that could possibly save dollhouse and the whedonites have been rallying! should be interesting to see if this does have any effect, seeing as it is #2 above…
fwiw TSCC season 2 is #84
sorry, i misspoke above: TSCC is #36, don’t know where the hell i got that 84 number from
@Remi: You can’t be serious? Dollhouse hasn’t even scratched the surface of the premise yet.
The Dollhouse DVD set was up to #50 the day it went up for pre-order. Since then it has been all over the place, popping in and out of the Top 200 irregularly.
@wiesengrund….thanks, i had no idea about any of this until i saw this post today…weird!
Amazon pre-orders don’t mean too much. They aren’t actual sales. It can’t be too difficult to manipulate if you get enough people to add it to their cart at the same time. They have months to remove it.
Here’s the problem with TSCC “having potential”. It HAD potential! For two seasons!
It crashed and burned!
What more do you have to know? The hardcore Terminator fans and the wider audience who knew what Terminator was about tuned in, saw that this wasn’t Terminator, and left.
It’s that simple.
The fact that three to five million diehard sci-fi fans and people like me who were hoping the show would actually LIVE UP to its potential – and a bunch of people who apparently never understood Terminator but who thought all this guff about “Crazy Sarah” was the only thing relevant – stuck through it until the end really doesn’t matter.
The ratings speak for themselves and no matter how you spin it with complaints about scheduling, competitition, etc., the show simply wasn’t compelling enough to hold viewers.
I just read an interview with Ashley Miller, one of the writers and co-producers on TSCC. He BS’d his way through the whole interview just like Friedman does. He never answered a question in a straightforward way. He made excuses about the alternate timeline crap being easier for writers – yeah, LAZY writers, Ashley! He wouldn’t admit that nobody knew where this show was going, except he re-iterated the same crap about Josh “had a strong vision”. Yet, Friedman hired Shirley Manson without having a clue what her was going to do with her character. Miller admits they didn’t have a full plan, they just had “signposts” and what Friedman wanted the characters to be.
Face it, they were making it up as they went along, with no clear idea what the show was about except Friedman’s obsession with “Crazy Sarah” and cancer.
You bring these clowns back for another season, on any network, cable or broadcast, it will tank faster than season 2 did.
And again, as far as WB and the movies go, I still can’t see WB spending the money for this show which is losing in the ratings and thus generating little or no profit just on the off chance that it would be good PR to keep the Terminator name in the public eye between the movies. Do they really want to spend $20 million plus every year for that? When they don’t know whether it will boost ticket sales at all for the movies enough to offset the loss? When the show itself has almost nothing to do with the movies except for the character names and the title of the show (and originally the word Terminator wasn’t even IN the title of the show?)
RHS, thank you for sharing YOUR opinions about the show 9046200341th times with us
Well the real reason that DOLLHOUSE is on the bubble….
REMOTE FREE TV. Talk is that they’re considering bringing it back just for FRINGE and DOLLHOUSE with some slight changes. If they’re going to continue the experiment it makes sense. DOLLHOUSE is profitable and they can continue the experiment.
DVR usage definitely factors into C3.
Hagi, if you and the other TSCC die-hards stop bringing up the goddamn show in every thread, I’ll stop repeating why the show failed in the the first place and why the endless ideas to bring it back are not going to work without a complete reboot.
Nick C: I guess I can buy that if this Remote Free business really is making money for them despite the low ratings or if it’s primarily an experiment for Fox.
I love Dollhouse. Joss Whedon is a genius, and I will be so disappointed if Dollhouse is cancelled