Newcomer Harper’s Island has been exiled to Saturday night by CBS. There will be no more 13 episode cycles as there might have been if the ratings were good.
Of the CBS shows on the “bubble” (The New Adventures of Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, The Unit, Cold Case, Without A Trace, Worst Week, Eleventh Hour) it’s a bit tricky to try and separate them into more or less likely to be renewed because so much depends on numbers we don’t see. How much are the producers asking for Without A Trace and Cold Case? What is the minimum rating that CBS will tolerate from its terribly performing Old Christine, Gary Unmarried Wednesday comedy block?
If I had to separate them today, I’d guess The New Adventures of Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, Without A Trace, and Eleventh Hour get renewed and The Unit, Cold Case and Worst Week get canceled, but Les Moonves keeps dodging my calls.
The Friday shows (Flashpoint, Ghost Whisperer, Numb3rs) all have low Indexes, but lower expectations (or costs) as well, they look safe.
Here’s some past quotes to think about; CBS Chief Les Moonves says “CBS Only Has Room For 3 or 4 New Shows Next Season”, and Entertainment President Nina Tassler says about the Wednesday comedy block “We’ve improved the time period, so it’s something we’d like to stick with.” as well as CBS doing a bit of public negotiating to knock down the prices on Cold Case and Without A Trace.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| THE EX-LIST | CBS | 1.9 | 2.9 | 0.66 | canceled |
| FLASHPOINT | CBS | 1.9 | 2.9 | 0.66 | |
| OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2.0 | 2.9 | 0.69 | |
| NUMB3RS | CBS | 2.1 | 2.9 | 0.72 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 2.2 | 2.9 | 0.76 | |
| HARPER’S ISLAND | CBS | 2.2 | 2.9 | 0.76 | |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 2.3 | 2.9 | 0.79 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER | CBS | 2.4 | 2.9 | 0.83 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 2.6 | 2.9 | 0.90 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 2.7 | 2.9 | 0.93 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 2.8 | 2.9 | 0.97 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.00 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.10 | |
| CRIMINAL MINDS | CBS | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.17 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.17 | |
| THE BIG BANG THEORY | CBS | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.21 | |
| THE MENTALIST | CBS | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.21 | |
| HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER | CBS | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.24 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.28 | |
| RULES OF ENGAGEMENT | CBS | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.31 | |
| CSI | CBS | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.62 | |
| TWO AND A HALF MEN | CBS | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.62 |
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Notes:
Friday night – Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
The New Adventures of Old Christine: CBS has tried to create a second “comedy block” this season on Wednesday by moving Christine from Monday and slotting freshman Gary Unmarried. Both have been among CBS’s worst scripted performers, but will Christine be given the benefit of the doubt?
Worst Week got the best slot in CBS’s lineup for a new comedy, but has performed just below average for the net. Reports are that CBS expected much more in that prime timeslot and that Worst Week will not be coming back next season.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Yeah, Two and a Half men finally beats CSI. I’ve waited for this day so long…
uh how did 2 1/2 men beat CSI when they are tied?
Y’know, 2.5 men did better because they’re on top of the list. The averages of the two shows certainly aren’t exactly 4,7.
They are tied by average demo rating (since we get only one digit past the decimal point), but TAAHM average 18-49 viewership is 6.176 million while CSI’s is 6.163 million.
Charlie Sheen fans rejoice!
There you go.
As much as I love The Unit, I am losing hope with each passing day. I would love to see it renewed and brought back as a midseason replacement, but it won’t happen.
I love Old Christine as well, but I’m not really worried because ABC is probably gonna take if from CBS. Gary Unmarried should be canceled.
Let us hope that your guesses are correct, Bill. I love those shows, especially Eleventh Hour. And, that is why I have to continue to remind everyone about the ELEVENTH HOUR RENEWAL CAMPAIGN. Check it out if you haven’t:
http://www.cbs.com/forum/posts/list/46315.page
I can see CBS cancelling one of the Jerry Bruckheimer/Warner Bros dramas but not all three because they wouldn’t want to damage their relationship with both of them as they have given the network their biggest hits in both comedy and drama.
I wonder as a sweetener to cancelling one of the dramas, they will pick up the Bruckheimer/Warner Bros drama pilot Miami Trauma as they’ve been looking for a medical drama and with ER gone, they could capture that audience along with the regular CBS audience.
I wonder with CSI declining, I wonder how long it will be before it is moved from the plum Thursday 9pm slot to a 10pm slot. The Mentalist is most likely take it place either next season or the season after.
My Magic 8 Ball predicts the odds of CBS renewing shows.
Ghost Whisperer – it is certain
Without a Trace – without a doubt
Rules of Engagement – you may rely on it
Numb3rs – as I see it, yes
Flashpoint – signs point to yes
Gary Unmarried – outlook good
The Unit – outlook not so good
Cold Case – reply hazy, try again later
Old Christine – concentrate and ask again
The Eleventh Hour – better not tell you now
Game Show in My Head – don’t count on it
Million Dollar Password – my reply is no
Harper’s Island – my sources say no
Worst Week – Magic 8 Ball laughed at me for even asking
I don’t think we need any more medical dramas where they don’t bother to research the common sense on not defibrillating asystole. It’s bad enough ER couldn’t get it right after 15 years.
i woukd like to see Eleventh Hour Christine and Gay saved i enjoy them
My Sources Say The Unit is Back and Eleventh Hour is Back..Take it to the Bank
Now that Harper’s Island is being dumped to the Saturday dead zone for TV shows,
I hope CBS realizes that the Eleventh Hour ratings were pretty good. I am really hoping they give EH a renewal. I think the writing improved over time and it became a very good show. I’ll be there for any timeslot they’re willing to give it!
Numbers and CSI Miami have so jumped the shark. The writing on both are horrid. CSI Miami is borderline craptastic. I just watch it for the humor, the humor of how bad it can be, and it has beautiful scenery.
How the F is flashpoint still hanging around?
It is sad to see Gary Unmarried in Danger. Not the best comedy in the world, but Jay Mohr is a Pimp, and it is funny.
I agree with dvikib. EH improved significantly in the last episodes, winning its time slot in viewers and having decent demos (and it did better than WaT and CC and TU). I’m sure CBS knows this already.
And I second Kellie. Anyone who’s a fan of EH click on the link and join us.
Okay si Wikipeida has Eleventh Hour back on with Season 2 on Sunday. I hope this is real now. If it is, it restores my faith in big companies listening to the viewers. But I will still keep my fingers crossed. Thank you Lourdes for the campaign to keep this show.
Because Wikipedia is usually such a reliable source?
Old Christine is coming back either way. If CBS doesn’t renew it, (even though it likely will) ABC will pick it up. Eleventh Hour is gonna get canned, along with The Unit, Gary Unmarried, Harper’s Island and Worst Week. Not sure yet about Without a Trace or Cold Case but I’d say Trace is more likely to be dumped over Case.
I’d give the edge to Trace over Cold Case…It’s doing slightly better and has solved their pesky Tuesday at 10 problem. (Though I might be a bit biased since I hate Cold Case and can at least tolerate WAT).
Dan sorry but, have you seen CC demos lately? They’re pretty bad. I think WaT has a better chance.
Just my 2 cents.
I like the Monday lineup but agree CSI Miami has jumped the shark. I’ve taken to DVRing it so I can fast forward seemingly through more than the commercials.
The Tuesday lineup is fine. NCIS and The Mentalist are 2 of my favorite shows.
Wednesday night’s dramas are fine with me. CBS should pay us to watch the comedy hour. They are horrible!
Thursday night is OK. I’m not a Survivor fan but it does well. CSI appears to be losing steam, though. Count me in for the return of Eleventh Hour. The show did improve throughout the season.
Friday’s show are decent. I like Numb3rs but the show is losing the plot. There are way too many characters added to way too many plot lines.
Sundays. If folks are right, I’ll hate to see The Unit go. The numbers could have been much better but late-ending football action kills the fall ratings.
Only reason why Million Dollar Password will not make it is because even with the Lighting Round play, its an old fart
However their will be more of Charlie sleeping around, the other Charlie Numb3r cruching, torches getting snufted out, more CSI’s, Jane using his mental skills and twisting brains regarding to fighting crime, and Gibbs keeping his gang of kuckle heads at NCIS in line.
I predict that Cold Case and/or Without a Trace will get one more season. The Unit is done.
I hope they renew Christine and Gary. They make a good pair. If Wednesday’s not good, then they should move to Tuesday. Maybe they could add Worst Week and make it a nice threesome.
Holly and Loudres, I have seen the demos for Cold Case and I see that they are pretty bad but its possible CBS would want to stick with the show airing sundays just for one more season. I have also noticed that WAT has solved CBS’s tuesday 10pm slot problem but CBS has dropped several hints about the fate of WAT. CBS has tested out the Mentalist in that slot a few times which may show that they might want to have the schedule look like this for next year.
8:00 NCIS
9:00 NCIS Spin-off
10:00 The Mentalist
leaving no room for WAT, also WAT is older and has dropped alot since its days in the post CSI slot. If CBS renews both series (which I hope for) than its possible that CBS could move Trace to sundays at 10 to make for this type of schedule for sunday
7:0 60 Minutes
8:00 Amazing Race
9:00 Cold Case
10:00 Without a Trace
For a nice sounding Race/Case/Trace combo. With this in mind, The Unit is gone and sorry for Eleventh Hour fans but the lower than usual episode order and declining ratings leaves little hope for renewal.
It would be best for CBS to keep the wednesday night comedy hour, hopefully to grow. They are trying this combo out on May 13 but I believe that Rules of Engagement and Old Christine should be paired on wednesdays so the schedule looks like this
8:00 Rules of Engagement
8:30 Old Christine
9:00 Criminal Minds
10:00 CSI: NY
Since both Rules and Christine are well established sitcoms by now, both should be paired if CBS wants the new comedy hour to grow, with Rules leading off the night. Sadly this leaves no room for the struggling Gary Unmarried and the other struggling comedy Worst Week is already dead.
Monday will definitely look like this
8:00 The Big Bang Theory
8:30 How I Met Your Mother
9:00 Two and a Half Men
9:30 NEW COMEDY
10:00 CSI Miami
Basically the same except with 9:30 vacant for a new post Two and a Half Men series.
Comments
i love the unit keep it on!
I can’t discuss any of the other shows because I don’t watch them, but I can discuss about a show that I watch and know.
Dan, again I ask you: What lower than usual episode order? The show got 5 more episodes than the original order when the ratings were not good and it must’ve been something new CBS was trying since HI also got 13 episodes. About the ratings declining, I have to disagree with that, since CSI’s ratings also declined and that was because of CBS’s ’smart’ decision of airing new episodes the night of ER’s series finale. EH’s ratings were pretty steady towards the end of the season.
Whatever happens next season, CBS must know by now that they have too many old shows and most of them aren’t what they used to be. And they need to renew or lose viewers.
Loudres, I meant when Eleventh Hour got 18 episodes instead of 22 which usually signifies that the network may not want to stick with the show. I do agree that CSI’s ratings have lowered and Eleventh Hour has held on to a good amount of its lead in but I still think CBS may want to try a new show out in the hour. However if Eleventh was renewed it wouldn’t be a shock to me, but CBS would have to dump some other dramas.
CBS’s bubble shows are the most tricky to determine about which ones will be axed. The CW and FOX have series that are either a shoe-in for renewal or definitely not coming back. ABC and NBC has also renewed a lot of the shows and cancelled a lot and the bubble shows from those networks are also easier to distinguish which have a better chance of returning to the schedule. But CBS is very hard to figure out. Even with most of the series going to return in the same slots. Like last year with the strike, around this time no one knew what would happen with Moonlight. But it turned out that CBS’s plan was to dump all of its new (Cane and Moonlight) and sophomore (Jericho and Shark) dramas and stick with their veteran dramas. CBS also kept all of its comedies (except the already axed Welcome to the Captain) and brought back The Unit which was MIA since december.
I think the renewals and cancellations will be similar to the 2004-2005 season with a lot of series mirroring each other.
Joan of Arcadia and Judging Amy is comparable to WAT and Cold Case. Both were veterans (even though Joan debuted only 2 years earlier) both sets were on the bubble for renewal (however CBS axed both Amy and Joan). But not sure yet what they will do with Case and Trace.
Listen Up and Center of the Universe are comparable to Worst Week and Gary Unmarried. Both sets pf comedies debuted in the fall on mondays and wednesdays respectively. 1 comedy of the duo got a full season order (Listen Up and Gary Unmarried) while the other got 15 episodes (Center of the Universe and Worst Week) both of those series were axed and replaced by an established comedy held for midseason (Yes Dear and Rules of Engagement). While both Listen Up and Gary Unmarried got to finish up their season orders, Listen Up was eventually axed and I believe Gary will be too.
I don’t know how CBS have acted historically but is it not odd that a number of the shows which are slam dunks to continue have not yet been officially renewed? So maybe CBS is still frantically trying to finalise next year’s schedule – perhaps even the ratings from the end of season Sweeps could prove crucial.
My hunch: they will move the current Tuesday schedule to Thursday -NCIS, TM AND WaT (renewed for a final Season.)
It does seem odd that they haven’t announced their early renewals, but I think part of that is because they haven’t made decisions on shows that normally would have been considered safe (like CC and WAT).
While they do need to do something about Thursdays, that kind of wholesale move will hurt those shows more than it will help CBS.
Does anybody here think that one of the Friday shows could get cancelled even if they have lower expectations? I think Ghost Whisperer is safe because it has very good ratings, but what about the rest?
Lourdes, it wouldn’t shock me if Flashpoint didn’t come back, but it would be a surprise, since the show’s costs are shared. At 0.72, Numb3rs index is just below last year’s of 0.76 which got it renewed, so I would be shocked if it didn’t come back.
Does anybody know if NCIS will be renewed for a new season (season 7)? I would really like to know, its my favorite show. They are only talking about the spin off and not about renewing it, so if anyone knows please let me know. Thanks.
Kareema, NCIS will absolutely be renewed for another season.
Bill i’m sure just because that its a canadian show and its relatively cheap, Flashpoint will be back in some way. It hasn’t done “The Ex List” terribly. And if CBS announced early renewals than basically they would just announce everything in green and probably leave WAT, CC, The Unit, Eleventh Hour, Old Christine, Gary and Worst Week Hanging. CBS has only canceled 1 series this year and Harper’s Island would have been pulled completely if it wasn’t a 13 episode miniseries. Whatever CBS does this year will likely be of some sort of pattern. Last year they dropped all the freshman and sophomore dramas and kept their veterans but this year 2 veterans (Trace and Case) along with The Unit are in danger of cancellation. While The Unit seems a definite for cancellation, similar to the Joan of Arcadia and Judging Amy situation, the Cold Case/WIthout a Trace combo could go either way. There wont be any midseason type deals for these two CBS could keep both, drop Trace, drop Case, or dump them both. What does everyone think?
“Does anybody here think that one of the Friday shows could get cancelled even if they have lower expectations? I think Ghost Whisperer is safe because it has very good ratings, but what about the rest?”
It’s been brought to my attention that “Numb3rs” is the most expensive network show on Friday. Nothing can kill something at CBS faster than being the most expensive anything. (Not counting Leslie Moonves’ salary, of course.) But my gut is telling me it’s a slam dunk for next year. The year after? Well…
CBS recently sent out a sweeps press release which omitted “Flashpoint.” I honestly didn’t know what to make of that. It’s a good thing it was the top show of the night on April 3 and has huge chunks of its cost paid for by Canada — otherwise, I might be inclined to take it as a pretty ominous sign.
Holly, I do not think it may be such a reliable source but they put EH 2nd season back on after they initially pulled it. Secondly, Living acquired the reruns for Eleventh Hour. At first it seemed to me to be a sign that the show was doomed but now I am wondering why anyone would acquire a show which only had 1 year. So may be it signifies something else.
Whisperer, Numb3rs and Flashpoint are safe for next year. Whisperer and Numb3rs in the same slots and Flashpoint likely somehwere else. That seems the least of CBS’s worries for now.
Connie, keep up the good faith about Eleventh Hour. It seems to me that everyone, everywhere is guessing rather than knowing. We will just have to wait and see. And keep leaving CBS Feedback, of course.
I live In Northern Cali and my Friend is a Producer in Southern Cali for a show on CBS.He told me that the Rumor is that they will cut cost on the UNIT by fading out the wivies.They will Renew the Unit because the like the Military aspect of the show(the only one on TV)and the only one thats not to Liberal.They will Keep WAT and possibly keep Cold Case by getting rid of some characters to save money.Everything is about money these days.
The only CSI worth watching anymore is CSI NY and the Unit has been moved around too much, not to mention it’s just gotten old. As for Eleventh Hour, I wish they’d move it up an hour…I really do like that show…I DVR it. Ghost Whisperer will probably be renewed, although it shouldn’t be…the story line is so old that it’s not interesting now. Old Christine and Gary Unmarried really should be replaced as well…perhaps by something like Eleventh Hour could take that hour.
hardtounderstandCBS, the problem with what your friend told you is that CBS has to cancel something. While I don’t doubt that The Unit and the other shows in danger are doing whatever they can to make themselves attractive to CBS, but chances of all three of them getting picked up are zero, and I would put The Units chances at less than 5%.
Does anybody know if any of the characters will die in the last few episodes of NCIS SEASON 6, or even if Tony or Ziva will die in NCIS season 6. They talk a lot that something big is gonna happen, but they are not saying if anyone is gonna die. So if anyone know please let me know. The suspense is killing me, all i wanna know is if someone is going to die thats all. So let me know anyone. thanks
At the end of one of the Variety articles about Num3ers 100th episode:
“Tassler* says CBS has no plans to change the timeslot for ‘Numbers.”
“The show does really well where it is,” she says, “and it has such a loyal fanbase. I think they like watching it on Friday nights — which is why the show does so well — and we really don’t want to upset the applecart.”
*CBS Entertainment president
I love Flashpoint. So well-written, and an amazing cast. I hope it stays around.
Here are the series that will likely not change timeslot for next year
CSI 9pm Thurs
CSI: NY 10pm Wed
CSI: Miami 10pm Mon
Survivor 8pm Thurs
NCIS 8pm Tues
Criminal Minds 9pm Wed
Ghost Whisperer 8pm Fri
Numb3rs 10pm Fri
The Big Bang Theory 8pm Mon
How I Met Your Mother 8:30om Mon
Two and a Half Men 9pm Mon
60 Minutes 7pm Sun
Amazing Race 8pm Sun
The Mentalist could be moved to Tuesdays at 10
Old Christine could either stay at 8 or move to 8:30 wednesdays
Rules of Engagement will likely move to either 8 or 8:30 wed
Flashpoint is definitely returning but maybe not in the same slot.
Slots for new series will likely be
10pm Sunday
9:30pm Monday
9pm Tuesday
10pm Thursday
9pm Friday
Not only that Connie, that show is seen in Spain, Latin America and now Australia, so EH hopefully will get renewed.
Does anyone know what day CBS announces its renewals and cancellations? I saw the list of all of the channels and their dates a while ago, but I can’t seem to find it now.
Go to the TVBTN homepage and click on the light blue box with white writing at the top of the middle column.
I sure hope the Unit makes it through. I can’t believe that the Unit isn’t beating the pants of it’s competition in it’s Sunday timeslot! For me, other than The Unit, Sunday evening is one big Dead Zone!
Lourdes I hope you are right. I hope logic follows some decision making on the part of CBS. At least they are keeping Numbers.
‘But it turned out that CBS’s plan was to dump all of its new (Cane and Moonlight) and sophomore (Jericho and Shark) dramas and stick with their veteran dramas’
Cane and Moonlight – Bad ratings, terrible demos
Jericho – was given a second chance, bad ratings
Shark – good ratings, bad demos, cancelled because it would get a younger audience.
Veteran dramas – Have all declined compared to last year, specially Cold Case and Without a Trace
I think that’s the difference.
I love the Unit. It’s in such a horrible time slot its understandable why people don’t watch it. Please keep it going
Well I hope they give Gary Unmarried a little more time, I enjoyed it but took a little while before the gelled. Was really glad to see The Big Bang Theory get the early nod. Now if they would QUIT putting it against Chuck!
I really don’t get the opportunity to watch The Unit like I’d like to but it’s an excellent show and I didn’t know it was renewed because of how little CBS tries to promote the show while we continue to see ad after ad of freakin’ CSI.
So if WAT doesn’t get cancelled and The Mentalist moves to 10 p.m. on Tuesday, where would CBS put WAT?