Update: Updated the table with the NBC May 4 announcements. No official announcement yet for Chuck, Medium or Law & Order. NBC now expects to announce their full 2009 schedule on May 19.
NBC’s advertising upfront meeting is Monday, May 4 (the first of the big English broadcast networks). Their new fall schedule will be announced no later than that date, so this is the last installment of the NBC Renew/Cancel Index before decision time.
Without further ado, here are our final predictions of the likelihood of renewal for all the NBC scripted shows that still hang in the balance. I’d bet that not everyone agrees with us. Feel free to post your guesses in the comments.
| Show | Bill | Robert |
| PARKS AND RECREATION – renewed 5/4 | 90% | 98% |
| SOUTHLAND – renewed 5/4 | 90% | 90% (and falling) |
| LAW AND ORDER | 75% | 65%* |
| CHUCK | 75% | 86% |
| MEDIUM | 75% | 97% |
| MY NAME IS EARL | 55% | 51% |
| KATH & KIM | 15% | 16% |
| KINGS | 0% | 0% |
| LIFE – officially cancelled 5/4 | 0% | 0% (sadly!) |
| KNIGHT RIDER | 0% | 0% |
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*100% if you include both NBC and USA.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0.39 | canceled |
| KINGS | NBC | 1.2 | 2.3 | 0.52 | |
| FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS | NBC | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.57 | returning |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 1.5 | 2.3 | 0.65 | canceled |
| LIFE (WED) | NBC | 1.65 | 2.3 | 0.72 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 1.8 | 2.3 | 0.78 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.87 | canceled |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.91 | |
| LAW AND ORDER | NBC | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.91 | |
| CHUCK | NBC | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.04 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.04 | |
| MEDIUM | NBC | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.09 | |
| PARKS AND RECREATION | NBC | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.13 | |
| SOUTHLAND | NBC | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.26 | |
| 30 ROCK | NBC | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.39 | returning |
| LAW AND ORDER:SVU | NBC | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.43 | returning |
| E.R. | NBC | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.48 | final season |
| HEROES | NBC | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.57 | returning |
| OFFICE | NBC | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.74 | returning |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. I have adjusted the NBC adults 18-49 season to date average to remove the increase (of 370,000) it received during the Super Bowl week because that increase had nothing to do with the normal viewership of the network or any of its other shows.
Notes:
Friday night – Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I’m indicating renewal for them.
Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
Heroes is definitely back for next season.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
So I see that Chuck has moved to the better side of the bubble. I’m curious why you guys think so. Don’t get me wrong, I’m thrilled, but I’d like to hear why.
Glad to see things are looking better for Chuck. Without it, NBC is dead to me.
Chuck FTW.
I’m with Dylan, but for all of the shows? Are these predicitons based on the numbers only, or other things as well?
Dylan, I always predicted the four shows, Chuck, L&O, Medium and Earl were likely to be renewed. Why would you say it moved?
Jon, I cannot help that my guesses are influenced by other things I read, but if you mean do we have inside information, I don’t.
Bill,Robert, here’s a question- what do you think NBC will do if Parks and Recreation or Southland drops dramatically this week?
As much as I like Chuck, I only give it 60/40. If NBC renews it, it will be because it is afraid to rely too much on possible new shows. It’s recent (and possibly ongoing) string of failures has to make it and its advertisers gun shy. Mediocre ratings on a mediocre network, as someone said, are not too comforting. Other shows:
Parks and Rec: 90% unless its ratings slip significantly, which I think they might.
Southland: 80% and 60% if the ratings continue to dive.
L&O: 90% with a very short order and lots of “We matched Gun Smoke” PR
Medium: 60% because it’s time-limited
Earl: 50/50
Everything else: 0%
One question for next year: are you going to remove Leno from the index numbers and only use 8-10 p.m. shows for NBC’s average?
Without looking at the last Renewal/Cancel list, I think Chuck was in the yellow or “In Danger”. I could be wrong, and I’ll check now, but I was wondering why it changed on the list. I know you guys had said when the dust settled, it would return, but I thought perhaps new statistics (outside of the preliminary numbers from last night) had come in. My apologies if I was mistaken.
Michael, we evaluate new data as we see it. Speaking for myself, I’ll hold off on evaluating new data until there is actually new data.
Bill: I hope you put a sacrifice at the altar of the server gods, before you posted this!
Bill or Robert, when they announced SVU renewal a few weeks back, didn’t that include the original L&O or am i mistaken?
Dylan, Chuck has been green for a quite a while now. Weeks, at least, perhaps months.
P, no announcement yet on original L&O.
David, since Nielsen creates the averages and they will certainly include Leno, that’s what I will use. Now if your question is will Leno be in *this* list or lumped with the unscripted shows, it’ll be lumped with the unscripted shows.
PREDICTIONS
At least 2 shows in GREEN will NOT return.
At least 1 show in ORANGE will return.
This WEBSITE has delusions of grandeur. The NETWORK makes the decisions.
PS I think the next week of waiting for a decision on the-show-that-should-not-be-named renewal is going to give this fanboy an ulcer.
Indeed, my mistake. I may have been harking back to an older one. In any case, I’m very pleased by these developments.
Speaking for myself, I’ll hold off on evaluating new data until there is actually new data.
Well, you’re just no fun at all
Bill, I wasn’t referring to inside sources. What I meant was are those numbers based on just the ratings, or do they take into account other things? Most notably NBC’s Leno situation, and L&O’s apparent “Dick Wolf mojo?”
MAJC, it’s you who has delusions. Both Bill and I gave one orange show a chance to return, and Bill has been saying for weeks that he does not expect all the shows in the green to return.
MAJC, by your tone I’m guessing you’re a fan of Knight Rider, Life, Kath & Kim or Kings. Dream On.
And if you multiply my % guesses for the green shows together, I’m guessing that one will not return either.
Life really is an unfortunate casualty.
Jon L, I can only speak for myself, but my guesses take both of those things into account. For me, no Leno at 10 would mean all those green shows are 100% likely for renewal and even Kath & Kim goes to at least 50%.
Isn’t NBC announcing their schedule on the 4th? I haven’t been able to figure it out, some sites have the 4th and some have the 5th.
Mike, I copied & pasted our upfront calendar from an article some time ago, so while it is unlikely I made a mistake, the original may be in error.
Who puts this DATA together? The website OR the network? The network always does what it wants. Look at Friday Night Lights. Is there any other explanation besides DirectTV?
Try and look at the FULL picture before GUESSING. How much does each show cost? What was the network expecting from the show?
MAJC, every single post I wrote on FNL since day one this season said “No renewal without a check from DirecTV” How about you read before writing?
As for the data, it’s all from Nielsen, the same that the network gets (although they get much more).
Bill, follow-up question: Do you think that this will change the green/yellow line? It seems it would because 5 new hours of Leno are likely to lower the network average.
MAJC, considering that they clearly state that these are their “predictions”, you cannot really find fault with them. If they said “The data we use PROVES…”, perhaps you would be justified. I can’t imagine that they don’t take everything in to account. Be a little more careful yourself before you call out professionals.
I remember reading that you guys had Chuck sitting at 50/50 a few weeks ago, and I may be wrong on that. If that’s true what contributes to the bump up in your predictions?
PARKS AND RECREATION – 100% (albeit only for an initial 13 episode order)
LAW AND ORDER – 100% (for a promoted final season)
CHUCK – 60% (albeit only for a 13 episode order)
SOUTHLAND – 50% (and dropping fast)
MEDIUM – 20% (if SVU ironed out by May 5th, 0%)
MY NAME IS EARL – 20% (on NBC, anyway)
KATH & KIM – 0%
KINGS – 0%
LIFE – 0%
KNIGHT RIDER – 0%
Tommy, in terms of the noise of Chuck being on the Bubble, it was 50-50 in *my* mind for most of the last month or so. That’s because of Leno and not the data though, the Index had it “likely renewed” during that entire period.
@Bill: How much more info from Nielsen do the networks get?
Tommy, Chuck has always been >50% by my numbers, since the start of the season.
David, Leno may very well raise NBC’s 18-49 average. NBC did dreadfully at 10pm this season on Wednesdays and Fridays, and not much better on Mondays. We’ll have to wait and see.
The network didn’t come up with these.
Show Bill Robert
PARKS AND RECREATION 90% 98%
SOUTHLAND 90% 90% (and falling)
LAW AND ORDER 75% 65%*
CHUCK 75% 86%
MEDIUM 75% 97%
MY NAME IS EARL 55% 51%
KATH & KIM 15% 16%
KINGS 0% 0%
LIFE 0% 0% (sadly!)
KNIGHT RIDER 0% 0%
What’s “90% and falling” mean anyway? Try looking at the full picture.
That’s what I was thinking Robert, just wanted to make sure that I wasn’t seeing something that you guys were in the numbers that would have improved it’s odds.
I just can’t see NBC canceling MEDIUM or LAW AND ORDER, especially since they’re holding the season finales of both shows (and SVU) until the first week of June, to give Conan O’Brien’s new 11:30 show a boost when it debuts Monday, June 2nd. (MEDIUM’s season finale airs Monday, June 2nd; SVU on Tuesday, June 3rd; and L&O on Wednesday, June 4th).
To me, that means all three shows are returning. Otherwise, why bother to use them to “boost” Conan’s new show if they’re canceled. Makes no sense.
MAJC, is it not obvious that those were predictions and meant as fun? What exactly is your problem? Is it that Life isn’t coming back? As you can see, I’m not happy about that either. Anyway…
Hudson, they get detailed breakdowns of every broadcast show by a seemingly limitless slicing and dicing of age, gender and income demographic groups. And while we see only bits and pieces of the whole picture, we see the most important bits, and in most cases it’s enough to make very good guesses.
If I do the math (so to speak), if everything in green were to come back in addition to what is already renewed, then there would only be 1 hour (presumably on Friday) for new programming. If Earl gets cancelled, then there’s one spot open for a new comedy. This obviously doesn’t include mid-season replacements, but something in green is probably not coming back. My vote is for Southland, I don’t find it that entertaining.
I’m with you on that CP, I don’t care for the show either and if it’s numbers keep plunging we may get our wish.
I wonder why you have such a high regard for P&R as far as it’s renewal chances go. As i read by episode 2 it was already below Chuck in viewer numbers and just one tick higher in demo, and by episode 3 it is already 1 million viewers below and now also below in demo, so it’s dropping like a stone.
CP, remember that NBC has 4 hours open for programming on Sunday night after NFL season ends. I am certain that some of these shows will have orders of less than a full season of 22 episodes too.
CP, some of the shows would not return in the fall. I think Heroes would be held until January….maybe Medium and L&O again, as well. Maybe even Chuck, assuming it’s renewed. (BTW, MEDIUM didn’t return until February this season, yet it completed 19 episodes. That’s a lot for a show that didn’t air in the fall, since most mid-season shows only air 13-16 episodes; 22 is a “full season”).
I have to be honest with how Life ended I would be somewhat bummed if it didn’t return as I thought the shows writers got lost somewhere during the season and were found with enough time to get the finale out but what can you do. Knight Rider is another one I excepted to make a return but the ratings just kept getting worse week by week.
I understand, but that’s why I brought up mid-season replacements. It still seems that unless there is absolutely no new series that NBC likes, one of the hour-long shows may still get the axe.
Brian, I loved Life, too…..but I think it’s gone. I really think it would’ve been a good fit on USA, the NBC-Univeral owned cable network…but I think we would’ve heard some buzz by now on that if it were possible it might happen.
MAJC, Bill invited you to post your own guesses. How about you post your own odds and reasoning since Bill/Robert’s are so obviously wrong?
CP, I think everyone doing these lists is assuming that some, if not most, of these shows would be back with short seasons, either as midseason replacements or as Sunday (in March) programming.
CP, I was thinking the exact same thing, but when I do the math I don’t have any time available for a new show. No way this happens so I see Earl getting the boot as well as 2 of the 4 hourlong shows gone. I’ll just guess and say Chuck and L&O come back with a midseason for Medium. P&R is the only one I’m 100% sure is coming back.
PARKS AND RECREATION 95%
SOUTHLAND 95%
LAW AND ORDER 100%
CHUCK 80%
MEDIUM 85%
MY NAME IS EARL 55%
KATH & KIM 10%
KINGS -25%
LIFE 5%
KNIGHT RIDER 0%
My problem is only looking at one demographic instead of the full picture. It’s like an ostrich putting its head in the ground and trying to peek out for the full view. Put more effort into it, it’s lazy.
Obviously responding to you is useless MAJC, but for everyone else, here’s the work.
MAJC – if you take notice, that one demo is what the Networks base most of their decisions on. That Demo is the bread and butter. You may not like that logic, but it is the facts
I’d go more solid on Law and Order but otherwise I’d agree with these.
I need you guys to make some noise for Life… How Chuck a tired plot can get more support is beyond me…I hope USA,CW,or FX takes a good look at this show….BTW FX being the host to Sons of Anarchy another great show..Can line them up back to back and dominate that night..I’ll even buy a TV for that….
Just got this on Life homepage “Watch full episodes of Life — including the season finale — online right now for a limited time.”
Limited time being the sore thumb to my eyes.Oh well now that leaves just one show on the big three ….I hope that NBC atleast completes the Conspiracy Wall, got bet’s going …
I guess,I’m not really here..So this right now isn’t really happening…
MEDIUM outperforms L&O in the demo on a regular basis….but MEDIUM isn’t owned by NBC…it’s owned by CBS.
Which makes one wonder if CBS would pick it up and place it after GHOST WHISPERER on Fridays should NBC dump it……CBS sold the show to Lifetime for millions of dollars an episode, with a commitment from Lifetime to buy any additional episodes of the show….so would CBS pull an ABC-Scrubs deal, and pick it up so they can get the rerun-revenue?
@Kim, If Medium comes back, it will be on NBC. CBS is not in the same situation that ABC was and has no real motivation for picking up Medium if NBC doesn’t. ABC had a lot of room to fill on their mid-season schedule, was desperate for comedies (still is…), and doesn’t have very many recent shows getting good syndication deals. CBS, on the other hand, has a very tight schedule already, has lots of hour-long dramas, and has a lot of current/recent shows in syndication on major cable nets.
Updated Monday Results:
At 8 p.m., CHUCK matched its highest 18-49 rating since the show’s special 3-D episode on February 2, the night after the Super Bowl. In total viewers, CHUCK delivered its second-biggest audience since March 2. Last night’s CHUCK (2.4/6 in 18-49, 6.2 million viewers overall) grew from half-hour to half-hour by 14% in adults 18-49 (to a 2.5 rating from a 2.2) and by 18% in men 18-49 (2.6 vs. 2.2).
I agree that CBS is in a better position than ABC, Holly, but if CBS is using a show like Flashpoint on Fridays at 9 (a show where they split the cost with the CBC in Canada, so they save money), why wouldn’t they use a show like MEDIUM, since they are already guaranteed 3-4 million per episode from Lifetime for the show. In other words, they wouldn’t even have to pay for the show to air on CBS…Lifetime’s fee for the show to air it as a rerun would already pay for it, and then some. That’s a win-win cheap show for CBS. Makes great financial sense.
NBC: 49% of surviving
75-86%, much better than the 50/50 everyone was predicting yesterday, I’ll take those odds
Medium is the weak link there, same numbers as chuck but later time slot means leno factor, actually think chuck would help lead into leno, though I won’t watch him, if it gets a later slot. Kath & Kim needed to be removed from the first episode, not funny at all, Earl is done, and finally I think NBC acted too quickly with Heroes, quite frankly they lost me around November and i see know reason to start back on it, again its done just a matter of time, and I said it a few weeks ago i’ll say it again there will be a Chuck season 4. Thank You guys for a compelling website, I’m so glad I found it.
Paul, I think those results from the NBC press release are for last week’s Chuck.
I will say it doesn’t bode well for MEDIUM that even though the show did quite well last week (finishing 1st in all demos), NBC didn’t play that up in the headlines/main part of the press release. I think that means MEDIUM may be a goner at NBC, while CHUCK will live on.
Nevermind….lol…I can’t read. NBC DID mention MEDIUM in the headlines as being #1 in all key demos in its timeslot last week.
MEduim needs to stay on i will miss it
Actually Kim Flashpoint is developed with CTV in Canada, CBC doesn’t really make shows anymore, well they do but no one watches, except Hockey, I hate hockey, not too much of a Flashpoint fan either, surprisig though how many shows have Vancouver production.
Kim, I’m not much for reading the tea leaves in network press releases. I doubt PR folks are given instructions to tone down the hype on shows that are doomed. I think it’s “goes to 11″ on every press release with whatever you’ve got!
Mike, not that surprising. Vancouver’s a really nice, and nice looking city, that’s not too far from LA (compared to any other big Canadian city that might be used for exteriors), but lots cheaper! Plus, best weather in Canada!
I think you guys are dead on
nice to see chuck above 50%
but i am still worried (crosses fingers)
sry to see life and kings go
life was really good
and kings didnt get its legs
but had potential
too bad neither was pulling in the numbers
and a surprise especially for the show LIFE as i think its really good
why is noone watching?….
So LIFE will be missed by me especially …sigh (shakes fist at NBC)
kings we hardly knew ye
Life was great watched it all, but for me it ended really well and Damian Lewis has more characters in him, he’ll be back, he is basically why I watched it anyway, they could have given him a new partner every week I still only watch it for him, so I guess I had a mancrush on charlie crews, oh well one is ok, lol.
“Chuck” is #1 on Amazon’s HD video on demand service. This is a good thing for Chuck’s renewal prospects.
Here’s the list:
1. Chuck [HD]
2. Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles [HD]
3. Battlestar Galactica (‘04) [HD]
4. Californication [HD]
5. Fringe [HD]
6. The Office [HD]
7. 30 Rock [HD]
8. Smallville [HD]
9. Caprica [HD]
10. Supernatural [HD]
Kenneth, Considering you can get to the top of the iTunes list with 30,000 viewers and Amazon is less popular (so #1 could mean less than 20,000 viewers). No, that doesn’t mean much for Chuck’s chances.
@Kim, Just fact checking, Lifetime is reportedly paying $1.3 million/episode, NOT $3-4 million. Huge difference. And while that 1.3 set a record for Lifetime back when they made the deal, it is a little lower than the $1.4 million/episode TNT is paying for Cold Case. (A quick Google search didn’t find prices for the other major CBS shows).
Yeah, on Thursday, Lost will be #1, on Friday will be Grey’s..
Chet said
kings we hardly knew ye
That’s probably just as well
I’m surprised how optimistic you guys are about chuck, i was thinking more of 50/50 or even 40/60 but I ain’t gonna argue!
but u guyz r waaaaaaaaay offz on KR itZ gUNNA COM BAK!!!
2,0000%% chanc of renew becauz NBC LOV KR
sorry, there just wern’t enough ridiculous fanboy posts in this article, it was getting too boring!
Anyone know if Kings has already been yanked as they just moved it to Saturdays and already the next week we’re looking at reruns or is this a tactic to try to bump up a few shows before the fall lineup is released.
LOL @ kenneth..
bro you made my day!
Hey cool i say there is a 90% chance someone will teach ya a lesson one of these days.
As a newbie to Chuck fandom…GO CHUCK GO!!!!! Domo arigato, Mr. Roboto
“I wonder why you have such a high regard for P&R as far as it’s renewal chances go. As i read by episode 2 it was already below Chuck in viewer numbers and just one tick higher in demo, and by episode 3 it is already 1 million viewers below and now also below in demo, so it’s dropping like a stone.”
I’m obviously not Bill or Robert, but it’s pretty clear that NBC seems to be behind Parks & Rec like they were for The Office and 30 Rock – they think they have another marketable star in Poehler (like Carell and Fey) and both of those series took a season (or more) to start pulling in viewers. I’m not saying that I think Parks & Rec is going to perform like the other two (personally I’m a fan of The Office and 30 Rock and don’t care for P&R), but it’s easy to guess what NBC is thinking. Similarly, I think they’re behind Southland until it truly tanks.
I also think L&O is pretty much a lock for at least a short final season. They can market the hell out of the fact it’s the 20th season, and as alluded to in the original post they’ve got to be worried about what will happen if Meloni and Hartigay aren’t back on SVU. On that note, I’m a little surprised they announced SVU’s renewal early, although I guess it could have been a message to its stars that the show will continue with or without them.
PARKS AND RECREATION 90%
SOUTHLAND 95% (I think NBC is so in love w/ this show they’ll keep it no matter what, at LEAST for one season)
LAW AND ORDER 90% (There’s no way they’ll cancel it one year short of 20…the only other option I can think of would be sending it to USA)
CHUCK 85% (my heart wants to say 100% of course)
MEDIUM 85%
MY NAME IS EARL 50%
KATH & KIM 5%
KINGS -1000%
LIFE 0% (sorry)
KNIGHT RIDER -100%
95% Parks And Recreation
—Decent ratings, their 3rd strongest sitcom… and oh yeah, and its from the creators of their #1 show.
95% Law & Order
—I don’t expect it back in fall, but for sure by midseason or as a replacement.
85% Southland
—It’s no ER, but NBC is already rerunning it consistantly on Saturdays. That is definately an attempt to grow the audience.
75% Medium
—Though not as likely, I think this will come back a la L&O: by midseason at the latest, but perhaps earlier as a replacement.
75% Chuck
—C’mon… everybody WANTS it to return. The WB and NBC will be able to work something out, right?
65% My Name Is Earl
—As the new weakest link on the (comedy) block, I doubt this will make the fall schedule. Midseason replacement or a new sitcom tanking are this show’s only hopes (at least on the peacock net, I suppose).
5% Life
—It had an extremely loyal fanbase that followed it on its many failed stops all over NBC scheduling real estate. That’s why it gets 5%.
0% Knight Rider
—Ford may be the healthiest of the three domestics, but I doubt they are ready to pull a DirecTV.
0% Kath & Kim
—5th singer in a quartet (and with new applicants to boot).
0% Kings
—Seriously?
Most shows brought back after a big fan campaign end up not doing well the next season.Can Chuck break that cycle Robert or Bill?
Okay, have to ask, are you two smoking something while that BOC album is playing in the background?
;-P
Parks and Southland are both plumeting. Fan forums for both are actually filled with significantly more negative feedback than positive. Now, they may get renewed, but it won’t be because of any intelligent decisions made by NBC. It’ll be a continuation of their foot-shooting policies. For as many different reasons as you both can come up with, CHUCK should be at the top of your prediction lists.
Remember… fun AFTER work, not during.
I really hope your predictions are right about chuck!!
CHUCK MEE!! YESSS!!! Haha last night’s finaly was “unironically speaking…. AWESOME”
I really hope Chuck gets a 3rd season, too much genius things going on in the show!
Not sure how accurate it is, but Futon Critic shows a fair number of other shows in pilot mode for NBC…
http://thefutoncritic.com/devwatch.aspx?series=&network=nbc&daycode=2&statuscode=1&genre=&studio=
Holly, I checked, and you’re right…Lifetime is paying 1.35 million per episode of MEDIUM….and they are OBLIGATED to pay that amount for any additional episodes produced through the 2014-2015 season. That’s free money for CBS. It means it’s a better deal for CBS to air MEDIUM than FLASHPOINT on Fridays, since they end up paying more for FLASHPOINT, even with the shared-production costs with CTV.
Am I the only person in the world is completely underwhelmed by the prospect of Leno 5 nights a week. I’m not too old, but I think Leno has always been a poor substitute for Johnny Carson.
As for Chuck, my whole family especially my 9 year old love the show. Not much on TV these days a kid can watch. I hope it returns.
I was also encouraged about the end of the show (I won’t spoil it)
Jim
PARKS AND RECREATION: 20%
SOUTHLAND: 50%
LAW AND ORDER: 50%
CHUCK: 100%
MEDIUM: 90%
MY NAME IS EARL: 50%
KATH & KIM: 0%
KINGS: 0%
LIFE: 0%
KNIGHT RIDER: 0%
Yay Chuck!!!!!!
SEASON 3 MAN!
This list literally can’t be true. Don’t believe me? Let’s randomly put shows on the schedule for next year + the three hours that will be opened up in 2010 with football ending. I’m not including Saturdays for obvious reasons. I’m plugging in every show that’s guaranteed to return plus the ones given a better than 50/50 chance on this post:
Monday: 8: Heroes
9: Chuck
10: Leno
Tuesday: 8: Southland
9: Law and Order
10: Leno
Wednesday 8: Medium
9: Law and Order SVU
10: Leno
Thursday: 8: P&R
8:30: The Office
9: 30 Rock
9:30: Earl
10: Leno
Friday 8: Friday Night Lights
9: Dateline
10: Leno
Saturday: Wasteland
Sunday: (Spring)
7: Dateline
8: Apprentice
9: More Apprentice
10: New show
Are you guys telling me that NBC is only going to debut one new show next season after the disastrous year they’ve had? Because that’s all the space they have going off your percentages. Even if you give another spot for the shortened length of Heroes, that’s not nearly enough shows. And I’m only counting Dateline and Biggest Loser as the only non-scripted shows on their schedule. We all know there is going to be a ton of reality next season on NBC.
I’m afraid these percentages are going to be way off. P&R/Southland/L&O are locks, but you might want to reconsider dropping Chuck/Medium/Earl down quite a bit.
I’ll post this here because I don’t want to start Chuck talk in the Lost article, but the Lost DVR article screams out for a comment on the Subway campaign. While Chuck may or may not return, the Subway campaign had to have turned some heads. Forget whether a few or many Chuck fans went and purchased Subway food yesterday; what matters is that Subway saw for certain that fans can see and react to product placement in shows. Add the significant free PR that followed, and continues, I suspect we will see more of this in the future. This, and perhaps ESPN like sports scores tickers on the bottom of the screen are the only way to deal with DVRs. As more people get DVRs, live viewing numbers will drop. Even the same day viewing doesn’t really equate to live viewing. Heck, a 20 minute delayed start allows the viewer to miss all of the commercials during a 1 hour show, and still finish when the show does. In product placement is going to be key to revenue.
One last thought on this issue. The in show revenue, for a licensed show, doesn’t do much for the purchasing network. I suspect that this will drive down license fees, but may also prejudice non-native shows.
Chief, look at the numbers this way:
Chuck 75% x Medium 75% x Law & Order 75% x Earl 55% = Likelihood All 4 will be back 23%
A few more things to add to your schedule: NBC has made it pretty clear that Heroes will not get a full 22 episode season. I think it’s very likely that several of these shows get less than 22 episodes. Then they fit.
@ Chief – Your points are valid except that NBC has already said that Heroes will likely only run in the Fall or Spring with Day One running in the same spot the other part of the year. That opens two spots. Medium has been, and likely if it returns will be a midseason replacement. That’s another spot. I also believe L&O is in for a very short season which creates a third spot. Trim Chuck to a short order and dump Earl and you have spots for another 1 hour show and a new comedy. That would take up most of NBC’s pilots, at least that’s what I see.
@ Jack – I’m questioning your credibility with the P&R prediction. Southland is hard to tell because, if its ratings don’t turn around, I think this could be its fate. I hope you’re right on the others.
Chief, NBC always has shows waiting in the wings in case (read: when) new shows fail. For example Law & Order and Medium this season.
I have to agree more product placement is probably going to end up being the future of television. Then the networks can get their money to make the show instead of trying to sue companies like youtube or individuals who download a verson on the net.
After that huge change at the end of Chuck they better renew for at least 13 episodes. Plus, the chemistry between Yvonne and Zach is undeniable, by far the most convincing on Television. Besides, P&R is not that funny, Amy is not Carrell from the Office. Every time I watch P&R which is twice for about 10 minutes, I feel like she is trying to be Steve Carrell’s clone. Love the Office by the way. Southland is alright, is it OK for an earlier time slot? It’s kinda graphic and gritty for an earlier timeslot. I can’t comment on Medium since I haven’t ever seen it. My Name is Earl should be cancelled, it’s just not that funny anymore.
Just my opinions.
*100% if you include both NBC and USA.
Isn’t TNT the more likely cable network for L&O if it’s not renewed, since they already run it four or five times per day anyway? A couple years ago, TNT was ready to pick it up if NBC passed. Plus, if it goes to USA, TNT might be less inclined to pay for all those L&O repeats since they’d effectively be advertising their chief rival’s product. It might not be as synergistically appealing, but I think a move to TNT would make the most overall sense.
i sure hope that Chuck will be saved, its starting to look a little promising. I just don’t want to get my hopes up too high and then be let down. Its bad enough that Life is pretty much a goner, which was dumb bc that show was excellent, and Damien Lewis is such a talent. I think that they could have done so much more on Life (story lines), it would have just got better…I am really sick of the reality shows that are taking over my shows.
Andrew, NBC owns L&O…and it owns USA Network. It doesn’t own TNT. So they would keep new episodes of their own show on their own network.
Lets go Chuck!!!
Chuck’s finale was great. Heroes was crap – should have been canceled. NBC Chuck is a longtime hit if you brand and market it right. Don’t give up on it. You’re making great TV with this show.
I just realized that I forgot about the two hours of Biggest Loser. That’s obviously returning too.
The biggest surprise for me on that list is Kath & Kim–I can’t believe they give it any chance at all.
Now that I am home from work I can sit back and spend a little time on this game too:
PARKS AND RECREATION 85% (May bump up to 90% based on this upcoming Thursdays performance)
)
SOUTHLAND 90%
LAW AND ORDER 100% (I’m with Mike on this one, shortened season, 20 year hype, blah blah blah, plus I already thought they did till Bill set me right
CHUCK 85% (I’m with Jenna my heart says 100%. I work in PR and digital and seeing how the Chuck situation has played out the past few weeks with message board folks, twitter, facebook has been amazing to see. I work a lot with business on their digital presence and no one could duplicate the hits or word of mouth this has gotten. It even made Advertising Age yesterday for crying out loud. It’s still about money no doubt, but all the people and press backing it is not falling on deaf ears, even though I know that’s been said here before. I’ve seen and had to deal with firsthand how large and small companies and corporations react to both good and bad press and with the number of hits this thing has had has bumped it from a 75 to an 85% for me. This is the best viral marketing they could have happened. I highly doubt NBC is not thinking about the backlash it may receive should they not renew it. Even more bad word of mouth amongst viewers and press is something I doubt they want to deal with.)
MEDIUM 75-85% (Still think this is good to come back, but I feel it’s about even with Chuck in terms of renewal.)
MY NAME IS EARL 55% (Unfortunately, I think I’m one of the only people who likes this show still ;/)
KATH & KIM 7%
KINGS 0%
LIFE 0%
KNIGHT RIDER Is there a percentage for not a chance in hell?
That was fun!
Why is anyone giving Kath & Kim any chance? I don’t get it.
It’s NBC’s Worst Week, it’s ratings arn’t as bad as they could be but it’s the weakest link.
In addition, both nets respectively cut orders, or let the show run it’s course with little fanfare and end very early in the season.
Both Kath & Kim and Worst Week have zero chance at renewal.
Sadly P…I played the game at work…LOL
I agree with most of that, however Medium and Chuck at 75%? Medium is coming back without a doubt in my mind, mid season replacement again.
Chuck will be back in the fall or a midseason replacement,but it will be back.
Yeah Chuck!!! Renew Chuck!!! It deserves to be renewed, those who haven’t seen it give it a shot at hulu.com and those who have save it and write, send nerds candy more info at chucktv.net!!
Sometimes I post in class.
LOL @ Jenna I post at work too but never have enough time to actually think about what I’m saying
What disgust me is that Heroes has been basically renewed already. This comes from a person who thought the show was awesome from the season 1 days (takes a moment for nostalgia). I have never watched a show that just got so increasingly bad as much as Heroes has. I have watched it off and on since late Season 2 but watched the finale last night. I thought Chuck was a little weird but this just yelled “I am out of ideas.” Does the show even have a point. I mean it seems to just be there and the writers are waiting to come up with some direction to lead the show and think they have found one until they decide that the new direction sucks so lets move it in a new one again. And people are saying Chuck was a one time wonder from what was Season 1. Heroes takes the cake by far in that category.
Jay Leno is going to pull a Brett Favre. He said he was going to retire, but changed his mind. He will stick around for a year and then actually retire, and end up really hurting who he came back for. Leno stays a year at ten, actually retires, and then NBC has five hours to fill and nothing to fill it with, but can’t bring back the good shows (Chuck) it (potentially) cancelled.
Brian, The Leno history hardly matches the Favre history. Favre was a look at me waffler. Jay was never a waffler. NBC promised Conan the Tonight Show in 2009 to keep him from bolting years ago. My guess is that Jay probably didn’t like it then, but figured if NBC didn’t want him he’d go elsewhere. Now, I think primarily to keep him from going to ABC and stomping Conan, NBC also makes its prime-time programming life a bit easier at the same time by giving the 5 hours to Leno.
Were there any details given on Leno’s contract for his new show?
There was a somewhat interesting op-ed on Huffington Post today suggesting that NBC schedule Leno at 8 as a lead in to its shows – obviously it’s not happening, but the idea is kind of intriguing just from a “what if?” standpoint. I don’t think moving the comedies past 10 is a great idea (when was the last time that happened?) but moving Leno earlier would fix some issues with content (namely, airing Southland before 10).
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ed-martin/jay-leno-at-8-pm-why-not_b_192331.html
(And as an addendum to my post, I think the biggest failing of that article is that it completely fails to take into account what competition NBC will have in each time slot)
The only thing I would change in your lists would be Kath & Kim – 0%.
I think the orange/green cutoff is dead on for the renewed and cancelled shows. My sleeper for orange renewal would be Kath & Kim (15% for/85% against), while for green cancellation, sorry Chuck fans (65% for/35% against). But, I do think the current interest may pressure NBC into at least a short order. NBC will give Law & Order its record season, Earl is too close to syndication profits to axe, and the ratings from Medium on up are too good for NBC to touch.
Earl is a Fox show so I don’t believe NBC gets any value out of syndication (this has been alluded to on here before, although I wouldn’t be surprised if NBC saw some money for getting a show from another studio to 100 episodes). But, since it’s only 10 episodes off that mark I also wouldn’t be surprised if Fox picks it up if NBC passes – even if they only ordered the 10 episodes they need and burned them off in bad timeslots I’d assume it would be worth it for them in the end.
(Alternately, Fox could give Earl to NBC at fire sale prices to achieve that)
PARKS AND RECREATION 85%
SOUTHLAND 50%
LAW AND ORDER 65% (on USA 85%)
CHUCK 85%
MEDIUM 65%
MY NAME IS EARL 50%
KATH & KIM 0%
KINGS 0%
LIFE 10%
KNIGHT RIDER 0%
I mourn Life. I’ll be PO’d if Chuck isn’t renewed
law and orders definatley coming back next year and most likely the next so it can claim the spot as the longest running american prime time drama (1 year ahead Gunsmoke)
Life: I am not attached to that show. I am not attached to that show.
Patrick O, that article is interesting, but I think that Leno’s show would have to undergo some major format changes to fit into an even earlier timeslot.
Patrick O.,
I think there are two conditions that will have to be met for Earl to return (on NBC). First of course, they are gonna need a deal from Fox. Second, NBC has to limit its comedy pickups to a maximum of two.
I gave Earl a 60% chance to survive because I think that *most likely* these two conditions will be met.
However, I have my doubts. I don’t see NBC picking up 3 or more sitcoms and “crowding out” Earl, but I just don’t know if Fox will cut them a good enough deal. If Fox is, in fact, willing to bring it to their own network should NBC pass, why would they be pressured to deal?
I really don’t see how you can predict ‘Chuck’ to return. Sunday is taken up by football, Thursday is taken up by sitcoms and it is safe to assume that Saturday is reruns, so that leaves eight hours of programming. In that, we have to have ‘Law & Order: Special Victims Unit’, at least one hour of ‘The Biggest Loser’ and ‘Southland’. We also have ‘Heroes’ and I would think that NBC is more likely to pick up ‘Medium’ than ‘Chuck’ because it is better-rated, close to syndication and is somewhat reliable, as it is in its fifth season. So that leaves us three hours for new shows. And NBC might want to throw in ‘Dateline’ somewhere because it is cheap and reliable. And NBC might want to do two-hour editions of ‘The Biggest Loser’. And we have ‘Law & Order’ (probably) and ‘Friday Night Lights’ coming in at midseason, plus NBC will want some new shows with its tanking network. Can ‘Chuck’ come back for thirteen? Possibly, but I definitely would not put its chances for renewal over 50%.
Life is one of the better shows on TV.
Hereos jumped the shark last season, I have the last 9 eps on my DVR and no drive to watch them, it is crap. To many people, to many stories, and a asston of bad writing.
My name is earl jumped it in prison, parks and recs sucks. That is an hour to easily get rid of.
I am glad we are losing 5 high quality hours to Jay Leno /sarcasm off.
VIVA LA CHUCK!! NBC is idiotic for losing/dumping scrubs, they dump chuck they can DIAF.
Personally I think all this chuck crap is to inflate DVD/Bray/Itunes sales, so part of me wishes they cancel a great show and perish even more because of it.
Position: Short NBC
Law & Order and Medium have a good chance at returning as midseason shows, or earlier as replacements for cancelled failures.
And I’m pretty sure NBC would like to steer clear of Dateline as much as possible. It was brought to Friday only after the night’s outlook went downhill.
Last Sunday’s 2 hr performance:
7:00 NBC Dateline NBC 1.0 4 0.6 2
7:30 NBC Dateline NBC 1.0 3 0.5 2
8:00 NBC Dateline NBC 1.0 3 0.5 2
8:30 NBC Dateline NBC 1.2 3 0.8 2
Friday did better, and given the cost of the show, probably ok. But still.
9:00 NBC Dateline 1.3/5
10:00 NBC Dateline 1.4/4
The only way Life would get renewed is if NBC realized it has a quality show and holds on to it either because it may grow an audience or to have a back up for something else new that will fail. However, I don’t see NBC thinking that logically. If weekends weren’t such a dumping ground for repeats, I could see Life as a Sunday night “serious” drama. I’ve been sad about it for weeks knowing the inevitability of this.
Wow, I had no idea of Lifetime’s Medium subsidy, and for $1.35 mil per to boot. At that sort of discount, it makes it almost guaranteed that Medium gets at least a 13-episode midseason order, at least for next year.
Aw, your Chuck predictions make me smile – I had been guessing about 60%/40% in favor of renewal, but hey, who am I to question the experts? Go Chuck!!
I’m glad to see you’re giving Chuck over 3/4 chance. I sent my letter to NBC like ChuckTV.net suggested. I really, really, really cannot stress enough how much I want Chuck to get renewed. It’s the best show on TV. Hopefully they renew My Name is Earl as well. Cancel L&O or send it to USA and cancel Medium.
To Bill and Robert. I agree that Parks has an extremely high chance for renewal along with Southland, as well as My Name is Earl being at a 50/50 level leaning more toward renewal. If NBC axed it, I’m sure FOX could pick Earl up. I do think that instead of 16 and 15 percent I would bet that Kath & Kim would be at 0 by this point. Even though its a comedy (and generally comedies have a better renewal prospect) its numbers were always bad and just kept sinking. That combined with NBC’s limited slots basically puts the show in no position of returning. Would NBC really waste one of its thursday slots reviving a low rated show? Not if they really want to change. I also think that Law & Order has a 100% chance. (I saw 65% and I was baffled but then saw the 100 under the chart and understood what you meant) My guess is that Law & Order will return with just NBC, however they will make the 20th season for Law & Order its final year, like what NBC did with ER this year. Medium has a high chance of returning but also a slim chance of NBC axing it just to make room. I also believe ultimately Chuck will return but with several scheduling changes.
My final thought before NBC upfronts next week is that every bubble show with a chance for renewal (My Name is Earl, Chuck, Medium, Law & Order, Parks and Recreation, Southland) will in some form return next year. Whether it be midseason on NBC or on another network. These shows all show some valid reasoning for NBC to want them to return, even with limited slots. I believe that some shows, which have either had there episodes orders cut (Knight Rider Life, Kath & Kim) or have been moved to saturday (Kings) that simply have no chance, just because their ratings are too low (even for NBC) and it would just be a waste to spend money renewing them. I have a good idea on which shows will be renewed but what I’m really curious about is how NBC will make their schedule.
Comments
Dan, I agree that Kath & Kim has very little chance of returning. Guessing 15% was, for me, a way of differentiating its chances from those of Life, Knight Rider and Kings which have none. I think limited series pickups are quite likely for a number of NBC shows, top of that list for me would be Law & Order. All the historic “20th Season” PR can happen whether it gets 22 episodes or 13.
As for moving to another network, there is some chance Earl might go to Fox, but that kind of move happens so rarely that I’d never predict it.
Bill, normally i’d agree about Earl put that kind of thing has been happening the past seasons partcularly with ABC. They’ve expressed interest in Old Christine from CBS, and have picked up Scrubs from NBC and Surviving Suburbia from The CW. Since FOX has no live action comedies (besides the show that won’t die despite having death in its name, Til Death) its possible they could pick up Earl if NBC should drop it, but I believe that NBC will renew Earl either way. I could see why you’d guess 15% for Kath & Kim. With all the bizzare things NBC has done in the past, renewing Kim would be an interesting addition if NBC would want to create a second comedy night. But if NBC wants to make a difference next year, they need to make serious changes.
128boy, I agree with your points and I see Earl returning to NBC hinging on what Fox thinks they could do with it – if they went with my “pick it up/burn off a short season” theory then I don’t see any reason why they’d want to cut NBC a deal. However, I’m curious as to whether Fox thinks Earl has legs beyond 13 more episodes or thereabout. If Fox thinks it could continue for another full season or two, are they really in the position to commit to the show? They have terrible luck with live action comedies, and right now it looks like the only place Earl could fit would be 7 or 7:30 on Sundays (which is a brutal dead zone based on the recent ratings). Of course, it looks like Fox is going to take another stab at comedy this fall, so Earl could fit there – but based on the way Fox seems to manage their schedule, a new comedy failing could take down whatever it’s paired with as well. When Do Not Disturb tanked Til’ Death got shuffled off into the Sunday wasteland (where it belongs).
Bill, I agree that this kind of thing is ridiculously rare to the point it’s generally silly to bring up, but syndication is a pretty big motivator.
I absolutely LOVE Chuck. I’m glad to hear it will be renewed!
Patrick O I believe if renewed by FOX, Earl will be given a full order, but if its midseason I’m sure FOX will have faith in it just because A) They own it, B) The show has done well in the past, and C) The series is very close to 100 episodes making syndication even better, the more eps the better as well. Actually Til Death never was moved to sundays to air new episodes. The last time it ever aired on FOX was October 8th 2008. It was supposed to come back November but was pulled where everyone thought it was left for dead, but then renewed in January. I still think FOX should have aired Til Death at 7 starting last March along with Sit Down, to atleast have the 7-8 sunday slot completely vacant of repeats, which may be what is hurting FOX’s 8-10 comedies.
Bill/Robert, love the site. Add me to the tally of people who found this site while searching for any info on Chuck’s chances at a third season. Here’s hoping Chuck does have a 75-86% chance at renewal
Chuck has more viewers than Parks and recreation and last week chuck’s demo was better than P&R.Why is it in better position than chuck in index
I was wondering about your guys take on whether any of the potential castoffs from NBC might end up on USA. (Other than L&O which you mentioned above)
@ Bill RE: keeping poorly rated series on for shorter seasons.
Don’t say that too loudly, the studios may hear you! It seems that this is becoming the new system in TV land. Reduce the 22-episode series to 10-12 episodes, which I believe is the worst thing you can do.
Entourage: I won’t watch it when it returns. It’s been a year since it was last on, and I could care less! Last season was a disappointment, as they tried to cram too much into a small amount of time. Same with Dexter. Every episode should be AWESOME if there are only 12 of them. But the last season of Dexter featured some horrible writing, and was of poor quality.
12 episodes is the lazy route to go. Decades ago, programs like “Green Acres” enjoyed 30-plus episodes per season – and that one lasted for 6 seasons!
@Jim: Am I the only person in the world is completely underwhelmed by the prospect of Leno 5 nights a week.
No, you’re not the only one. But I’m not 65+, so I’m not in the Leno demographic.
(Really, Jay? “Does This Impress Ed Asner?” I mean, I loves me some Lou Grant … which should tell you everything you need to know about Ed Asner’s relevance)
But NBC is such a disaster at the moment that they really have no choice. It’s either that or try to re-animate Brandon Tartikoff’s corpse.
Anyone interested in saving Chuck should go to
http://www.nbc.com/Footer/Contact_Us/?__status=1
and write nice, polite emails saying how much you like the show and want it to continue. Tell them how you can watch with your children/parents/significant other, and how it is one of the funniest and smartest shows on television. Don’t threaten to never watch NBC again, that accomplishes nothing. We can keep Chuck alive, just write in and tell them how much it means to you.
Arny Ronban, 12 or 13-episode seasons are the norm for subscription channels like HBO and Showtime (13 episodes or fewer is also the standard for the BBC). When a series is picked up by a network for 13 episodes sometimes there’s an option to produce the rest of the season if it performs well, but it also seems to be the new strategy for shows the networks are worried about (ABC cutting Lost’s seasons, NBC cutting Heroes down next year). NBC has been trying for 30 episode seasons with The Office though.
As someone who enjoys cable shows, I personally don’t mind 12-episode seasons. Just think about it this way – if shows like Entourage and Dexter are having quality issues at 12 episodes per season, there’s almost no way that having a longer season is going to fix them.
Having Leno appear 5 nights a week is a pure money play. 250+ episodes of Leno per year costs the equivalent of 15-20 episodes of a single 1-hour scripted show.
Leno can get absolutely dismal demo numbers and only be able to command horrible advertising rates, but still be a massive financial success for the network.
As a viewer, I like the 13 episode seasons because it allows more shows, and allows me to move around and see different things. As a network, I’m not sure if I’d like that model for the same reasons.
Chuck is the best show around. I will be the happiest person if it gets renewed. Anyone who says it deserves to get cancelled needs to watch a couple episodes. Come May 5, I will be waiting, hoping they renew my favorite show: Chuck!
BTW the finale was great. It leaves so many new opportunities for the story to progress.
Chuck is great, I’ll be so happy if it is renewed.
Like few shows, Chuck stays exciting throughout the whole series so far.
The ideas are always original. If Chuck actually is NOT in fact continued, I see no point in watching NBC anymore.
Sure there is Heroes of which I like, but that show too, is somehow turning a little boring. It’s great, but it is no longer action packed, unlike Chuck.
Chuck amazing and I will be devistated.
If anything, cancel My Name is Earl, which happens to be the most pointless show I’ve ever seen.
Every monday, if I’m not done with my work and it’s 7:30, I say ‘Screw my work, Chuck is too epic to miss’.
I really don’t care, as long as I get my full hour of Chuck, and possble full hour of Heroes.
Chuck is too important to cancel, if it is, I dont know what I would do ever monday night at 8:00.
Chuck is coming back for a third season. You heard it here first. How do I know? Well, I just received an e-mail from Amazon with the subject, “Amazon.com: Watch ‘Chuck’ Season Three Instantly in High Definition”.
Of course, in the body of the e-mail they say Chuck Season Two. But I’m just going to assume that’s a typo and they meant to type Season Three.
A guy can dream…
(But seriously, why must they keep toying with my emotions? First the NBC Chuck page saying Series finale yesterday and now this. Proofread your work people!)
Parks- 75%, because the ratings and viewers are dropping FAST, the only reason this show may stay is because of nbc previous sucess with similar comedies and becasue its by the same ppl as The Office, also in its advantage is its short first run, because it will not have time to drop too much, but after next season i doubt this show will even have a chance of getting renewed
Southland – 93%, this show has been pulling in more viewers than almost everyother show on nbc, nbc also really likes this show and is constantly advertising it, even though it is dropping i think it is more likely to be renewed than P&R
Chuck – I wasnt to say 100%, but im think more 85% – 90%
chuck has a very steady fanbase ad most new nbc shows have done terribly, and chuck has done well in a very competitive timeslot for two years this i would be very suprised if this doesnt return at least for shortened season
this is because other than being a great show
Medium – 75% – This show would have been a lock if not for jay leno, because it pulls in very good numbers for an 10 to 11 show, however due to drastic drop in numbers compared to previous seasons this show may not return, working in its favor is that it does very well as a mid season replacement
L&O – 95% – only because of its 20 season , and past popularity, its numbers are down from other shows like chuck medium and southland but it is still very likely to return
Earl – 35% this comidy has dropped in viewers and rating this season, i think that nbc would rather try a new comidy out and let this one go, however this will very likely be picked up by fox becasue it is produced by them
Kath & Kim – 7% if there was no jay leno this show wwould have a good chance of returning, however viewers and rating are down and this show is not especally cheap most likely done
Kings, Life, KnightRider, – Life and Knight Rider viewers and rating way too low and even nbc will not renew them
Kings – not a chance
I personally thionik that heroes is still a great tv show, not as good as season one, but i still enjoyed this latet volume, i think that redepmtion (season 5) will be able to get the show completly back on track, and regain many viewers, because istill think heroes is great. i hope heroes does well next year and can be reknewed for a fifth season
The other nbc show i watch is chuck, and i really hope this will reutrn. i think that nbc will give chuck a 3rd season at least,(but they need to move it if possible and advertise it aLOT more) and hopefullly more seasons after that
BTW I am personal friends with both Bobby and samir.
All Chuck fans should go read the rest of the articles about it on this site and others. There are some really good ones.
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/04/07/chuck-co-creator-says-there-could-be-chaos-across-the-country-if-show-is-canceled/16209
http://sepinwall.blogspot.com/2009/04/chuck-chris-fedak-talks-about-rest-of.html
Kim, there are several reasons Parks is more likely to return than Chuck. First, its average demo is higher than Chuck’s. Your example was one week where Chuck beat parks by 0.1, and even so it can’t touch Parks 18-34 numbers.
In addition NBC loves Amy poehler, they love the minds behind the show, it’s cheaper than Chuck. It horribly compatible on NBC Thursdays, and the show is just starting out and they probably think they can grow the audience.
PARKS AND RECREATION – 95%
SOUTHLAND – 95%
LAW AND ORDER – 100%
CHUCK – 70%
MEDIUM – 65%
MY NAME IS EARL – 45%
KATH & KIM – 25%
KINGS – 0%
LIFE – 0%
KNIGHT RIDER – 0%
But it said Chuck series finale on NBC.com yesterday and now it’s gone. Any thoughts?
Jordan, a screw up. http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/04/28/did-an-nbccom-screw-up-announce-the-chuck-series-finale/17517
In his new interview(can be read on spoiler tv) Josh S mentions that Chuck and Sarah can not be together in season 3 because he is once again the asset, so expect more romantic angst.
Does anyone have insight as to why FNL got renewed when it’s numbers are so bad?
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS NBC 1.3 2.3 0.57 returning
JT, only because DirecTV is subsidizing the cost so it can air the episodes early on satellite. That makes the show cheap for NBC, and so its low ratings can be tolerated.
Bill, thanks.
Parks And Recreation – 100%
Southland – 100%
Law And Order – 150%
Chuck – 100%
Medium – 50%
My Name Is Earl – 75%
Kath & Kim – What?!! Are you Nucking Futz?!!
Kings – Crowned
Life – DNR
Knight Rider – 100% if David Hasselhoff gets back into the driver’s seat
the128boy,chuck is in the toughest time slot.Also,chuck is consistent but P&R is falling.
Kim Chuck has been consistently low – that’s not a good thing.
If it were consistently pulling a 3.0 then it would be a different story but consistently pulling a low 2 is not a great argument for bringing a show back. I’d also point out that I’m fairly sure Chuck dropped during its first three episodes of the season as well.
Plus its apples and oranges, trying to compare a 30 minute sitcom to a 60 minute show is just a bad idea. Sitcoms can survive much longer with lower ratings than longer shows can its just a fact of network television.
“Mike the Canadian”… don’t know much about the CBC do you – the network has co-produced a series called “The Boarder” which has received acclaim from posts world-wide and is scheduled to return to the network for its 3rd season this fall.
To the 128 boy
I think the point people are making about Parks is, in only 3 episodes its ratings have already slipped below Chuck’s (and some other NBC bubble shows I believe). Its average demos are higher than Chuck’s right now because it got a 3.0 demo for its premiere (with the support of a strong lead – in, The Office) and has only had two episodes since. Here are the numbers for Parks so far:
4/09/09 – Viewers: 6.88 million; A18-49: 3.0/ 9
4/16/09 – Viewers: 6.02 million; A18-49: 2.5/ 7
4/23/09 – Viewers: 5.23 million; A18-49: 2.3/ 7
I agree NBC will probably keep it because of Pohler and because they are hoping it will eventually build a following like The Office and 30 Rock. However Parks (according to Metacritic) isn’t getting the rave critical reviews that The Office and 30 Rock received. So it doesn’t seem to be considered a very good show. It will be interesting to see how it does this week though. If it takes another hit in its numbers maybe NBC will lose some faith in it.
@Clay. This is not a Chuck fan site. And even then posting spoilers like that would be rude.
First, I started reading this website about two months ago, and would like to thank Bill and Robert for their time and energy gathering the raw data and doing the analysis on it. The post on the odds for NBC bubble shows simply lists what we already know, the raw data. Bubble shows are just that, they can easily be renewed or cancelled. Some shows, like Chuck, would upset most of us the board, but would not surprise us. Now with bubble shows, taking the line from TV week, we must go beyond the raw data numbers. These shows have much more factors to look at then a bona fide hit. These factors include ownership of the show, production companies involved, relationship between executive producer and the network, how close to syndication, cost to network (as years on TV go up, usually, so does the cost per episode), if it is a pet project, and if the head of the network is a fan. I remember years ago American Dreams being renewed, simply because the head of the network was a huge fan. All bubble shows being considered fall within a few tenths of each other, they are around the network average, and therefore are not hurting the network. The problem is they are not helping the network either, so in the end some go and some stay. What I see as the biggest mistake of NBC is the fact they are having their upfront presentation too early. Parks and Recreation and Southland will have only aired four episodes each. I find it difficult to make a multi-million dollar decision based off of such limited data. NBC is even harder to call this year, because of the Leno decision. Now on to my thoughts on the renewal prospects of the shows. NBC will not expand their comedy lineup beyond what they have now, which is Thursdays. Taking that into consideration they will need to shed two of the three comedies to make room to launch a new comedy after The Office. Everyone knows Kath & Kim is toast, which leaves Parks and Recreation and My Name is Earl. Parks and Recreation is owned by NBC, seems to be Ben Silverman’s baby, and the cost would be much lower than My name is Earl. I also feel that NBC thinks it fits their lineup better. The four dramas on the bubble are more difficult to call. Law & Order will be back as a midseason replacement, simply because of the relationship between Dick Wolf and NBC. Southland will be back, but only because of the limited data they will have on the show by the time they have to make a decision. My prediction is the decision to keep the show will cost NBC a lot of money next year. Heroes is already coming back, but I think they are going to run it the way Lost and 24 are run. That leaves one spot left that will go to either Chuck or Medium. This is a hard call, with factors that we do not have knowledge of such as how much of a reduction in fees the production company will charge NBC just to keep it on the air for syndication profits. Neither show is owned by NBC nor neither is a pet project. My gut feeling is they will keep Chuck, because it is the cheaper show to produce. I am assuming it is cheaper, because it is newer and the actors get paid less. I find it interesting how many missteps NBC has done in one year.
Kevin….use paragraphs next time
“@Clay. This is not a Chuck fan site. And even then posting spoilers like that would be rude”.
NM, where did I say this is a fansite ?? Several people said they stopped watching Chuck because they got tired of the romantic angst, they were hoping it would be over. The show’s creater has said it is not over, there will be much more angst if there is a season 3. That is not a spoiler, it is from an interview that pretty much all Chuck fans have read by now.
Why do you think If L&O comes back it will be for a final season when they can have “we broke Gunsmoke’s record” PR for season 21.
Bring back Mr. Big, Benjamin Brat, Carry lowel, Angie Harmon for guest spots. They can even Bring back Jill Hennesy’s charecter from the dead to mess with McCoy’s mind, all the coll shows are doing it.
Something to throw into the mix folks… given the competition for the 10PM time slot, I wonder what happens if Leno’s show bombs? Most folks that I have talked to about the ‘Leno experiment’ aren’t at all interested in watching a talk-show clone at this hour, regardless of who the host is. I wonder what fiasco will be in store for viewers if NBC has put all of its eggs into Jay’s basket and it doesn’t pan out! I hope somebody at the network has thought about this – then again, it’s NBC we are talking about, so expect almost anything.
@Clay. Why do think fansites and forums have spoiler tags? Some people prefer to stay spoiler free. I’m not coming here to be caught off guard with spoiler comments, I’m purely interested in the numbers and renewal prospects of the shows (what this site is about). Please respect other people choices, do not make choices for other people and do not go off topic just because you are over-excited about something.
I’m hoping for the best with Chuck! I would guess what hurts it the most is production cost since it does involve action and explosions, etc. I have a good feeling about it though. It’s one of those shows that I think a lot of people are pulling for and hopefully NBC (with their limited amount of programming) recognizes.
I also agree with 128… I would give Parks a 100% chance to return. It’s a short season and it’s an extremely NBC heavy show from the writers to Amy in the lead. It’s going no where for the upcoming season. The same for Southland, whether it’s that great this season or not, it’s coming from an NBC breadwinner and will get it’s chance next season.
If one of the greens slip, I’m hoping for L&O. I thought the show was great before Jerry Orbach passed away but since then it’s not been much. I really don’t care for the current guys. It’s best bet is to find new leads.
MAJC… Why waste your time reading here? You’re really wasting your time and space for everyone else that reads the comments.
@nm … The numbers and renewal prospects are in the post, not the comments.
NM, seriously shut the hell up. There is nothing spoilerish in my comments. I am mentioning an interview that Josh Shwartz recently did, Schwarts himself would not say what he said if it was spoilerish. Anyone who has seen the last episode already knows that Chuck is the asset once again. It is not off topic. Many former viewes of Chuck have mentioned they no longer watch the show because the romantic angst was gettign too annoying.
Clay, information about what is going to happen in future episodes, whether from an interview or anything else, is a spoiler.
LAW AND ORDER 100%
SOUTHLAND 95%
PARKS AND WRECK 80% (should be 0% — awful show)
C***K 80%
MY NAME IS EARL 70% (100% if you include FOX picking it up if NBC drops it… it’s a good fit with “Sons of Tucson”)
MEDIUM 25%
KATH & KIM 10% (it was 40% until Angela Bromstad took over — she clearly doesn’t like it)
LIFE 1%
KINGS 0%
KNIGHT RIDER 0%
I predict the bulk of these that they do renew only get 13 episode pickups and are held for midseason.
I hope Medium gets renewed !
Clay, read definition of “spoiler” on wikipedia. The source of the information is irrelevant as this is still info about future direction of the show. I admit this is not huge because many have been speculating/expecting that angst may be finally over. I hope they do not forget that it can get pretty old very quickly (-> Smallville).
Dan, I still think it is an extremely weak argument to say that Parks has slipped below Chuck, as a reason (it was explicitly stated as such) why Chuck has a greater chance at being renewed.
Is it true that the latest airing of Chuck scored a whopping 0.1 higher than the latest episode of Parks? Yes.
Is it also true that this lowest-rated episode of Parks And Recreation scored at or higher than 7 out of the 11 episodes of Chuck that have aired since February? YES.
Your argument that it’s average is higher because of the 3.0 airing out of The Office is weak, too.
Take that airing out and Parks still has a 2.4 average. Chuck’s last 11 episodes, (all the airings this calendar year and even excluding repeats) averaged a 2.33. So it still loses.
I won’t even go into the 18-34 comparison or the reason other than numbers why Parks is a lock and Chuck isn’t.
I want Chuck to come back. Its has a solid viewer base week to week, even if it moved (to Thurday would my choice) those people will follow. Oh and its my favorite show on TV at the moment so I’m a bit partial… time to eat some Subway…lol
Personally I think Life ended great. It ended on such a great note that I don’t mind if it doesn’t come back as it tied up nearly all the strings.
I thought Kings was a great concept, but after watching it, it is too drawn out for its own good, networks shows have to be watchable from nearly any episode (like law and order or Seinfeld as two great examples), it would be a better show on a network like HBO.
NBC giving Leno 5 hours of Primetime is going to kill them. I might do well at first as more people might watch it to see something they might not watch at 11:30, but not against shows like CSI which destroys all in it timeslot, against stations like FOX which airs local news it might do very well. Note I live in NY so Im going by local programming.
Southland seems like a great show, but its only comming back if on version of L&O does not. L&O on USA or Universal cable channels might be a better idea. Bringing a show back just to break a record is such a poor move. Heck keeping ER on for 15 years was even worse.
Earl and Parks are decent shows. Earl has had a good run, but there seems to be little developement in the show as of late. After so many years why hasn’t he finished the list…lol. Parks is a rip at The Office and for that it loses some points on me. I think it could have been more original and maybe a bit more realisticly funny and not goofy (I blame casting Amy Phoeler, shes great at comedy but she too clown-like her acting doesn’t seem genuine. The casting of whats-her-face would have been better if they used her character from the Office as a kind of bridging).
Major pawnage of clay by julia.
I just really hope they do renew Chuck. I don’t think I’ve ever been so upset at the idea of losing a show. I hope whenever it is cancelled or ends there is a real ending that ties things up really well. It is such an amazing show. I love Lost and 24, but Chuck is what I really look forward to.
I don’t know why some people here are putting Parks & Recreation as a better shot at renewal than Southland? Yes, both shows showed erotion last week, but overall Southland is in better shape than P&R. I think Southland comes back before P&R.
P.S.
Leno will do okay. I think it will do especially well on Friday nights. It will also do very well in the summer months when many other shows are on hiatus or reruns. I don’t know if it will keep five nights per week beyond the first year or not, but I could see NBC keeping it on three nights per week. I think it will do better than some NBC shows on right now at a lower cost which is why the network decided to do it anyway. That said I think the networks (all networks) have gotten lazy. They don’t even try anymore to come up with innovative scripted series but have an over abundance of “reality” shows, game shows, and other non-scripted mostly crap. I never expected that reality shows would last as long as they have. I think “Chuck” will be back, too. I think it is one of the few somewhat family friendly shows the network has to put on at 8pm.
NBC has been killed by GE head Jeff Immelt. He is bound and determined to destroy NBC’s brand any way he can. He has already destroyed the news department.
Just watched Chucks season finale for a second time on Hulu! Believe it or not I think it was better the second time… They have to figure out a way to keep this jewel of a program. That said… Here are my (Biased) predictions.
LAW AND ORDER 100% for a chance to replace Gun Smoke’s record they’ll suffer the ratings slump
SOUTHLAND 100% It reminds me of hill street blues soaked in Meth and powdered with anti-depressants
PARKS AND WRECK 90% The first copy of any successful show (Office) always makes it past the first season
Chuck 100% Great music and character development. Plus it has a hot blonde with a supercharged geek……
EARL 30% Uneducated goobers can only make so many jokes about farts, sisters and body odor before it becomes a documentary on the state of Georgia.
MEDIUM 45% Good story plot, So-so acting, loyal fan base but no water cooler moments.
KATH & KIM 1% Never seen it. don’t plan to
LIFE 2% Seen the previews but never found the time.
KINGS 0%
KNIGHT RIDER 0% I was tired of talking cars 15 years ago… What were they thinking…
Interesting…there are only two shows I watch on NBC and both seem to be on the bubble. Chuck and Medium. NBC as a matter of fact, for me at least, generally has the least interesting line up of any of the major networks. If they cancel Chuck and Medium, they’ll be no reason to watch the network at all. Maybe one of the other networks will pick them up. Can’t remember, was it NBC that also screwed the pooch on JAG?
Just curious if anyone thinks that there is anything to be made of the fact that NBC just announced a pickup for Celebrity Apprentice, but they’ve said nothing about any of their other shows that are awaiting renewal orders? Could this be because they are taking their time, or perhaps they’re considering dropping most of them? I know a lot of people think that shows like Law & Order and Medium are locks to return (including me) but why doesn’t the network go ahead and announce the pickups and be done with it, instead of waiting until the upfronts?
What’s the purpose of holding back on the announcements?
“Something to throw into the mix folks… given the competition for the 10PM time slot, I wonder what happens if Leno’s show bombs?”
I don’t think it matters, at least not this season. It’s a new experiment as well as a cost-cutting measure, which means that there’s no real metric to determine success yet. He’s on for a year at least, mostly because I can’t see NBC admitting failure (and also because they’d have to pick up 5 series to air in case Leno tanks, which would both show they’re not 100% behind Leno and also negate the cost savings of Leno’s show).
I think that NBC knows a good opportuniy when it is presented. I mean, what better way to generate a tonne of hype for a show–in this case CHUCK–than to let its loyal and almost rabid fan-base think it’s going to be cancelled? I have every faith that CHUCK is coming back. And for those worried about a poor season if it comes back just based on fan outpouring–DON’T. Josh Shwartz has already said that they’re working on Season 3 already. Yay, CHUCK!
i want to see chuck back or else nbc loses me
they better renew chuck
for the record I heard it’s now CHUCK vs the chick who sees things in her dreams.
It’s a one or the other thing from what I hear.
Over/Under: Time before Chuck fans go postal on Medium fans: 1 minute.
I watch both shows and will miss which ever one isn’t brought back.
Considering that Chuck is younger, it has more places that it can go. Medium is getting a little tired for me. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a quality show, but there’s more room for Chuck to grow. I think NBC will see it in a similar light, what with their hopes to change things up.
GO CHICK WHO SEES THINGS IN HER DREAMS GO!
Wait, what?
A major advantage to Medium is that they can hold it until mid-season (for Sundays or to replace something) without worrying about the long break killing it. I don’t think you could say the same about Chuck.
As much as I like Chuck, it does have an expiration date… Becausehim being the holder of all info but not really wanting to be has to end. And the fact he hasn’t gotten much better at being a spy after so much time is starting to get old.
Medium is one of the few shows that depicts a believable marriage but has the crime fighting bonus of Allison’s dreams. Plus: Joe in his boxers never gets old.
Hmmm… but Chuck has the goodness that is Adam Baldwin.
Tough choice.
At the same time, Chuck can reach a much larger demographic than Medium. Medium is a 10 pm show. Chuck is a somewhat family friendly show that holds its own in a very competitive slot. Bigger demo = More money. CAN being the key word. Your point is a good one though.
Did you watch the Chuck finale LargeMarge? Everything you pointed out changes lol, just saying. Trust me, I like Medium, but it’s kinda old hat now. It’s been around so long (seems like), that I’m no longer intrigued. Chuck is younger, can go more places.
Nick C, is this a numbers decision anymore, or do you think it’ll come down to the show that’s loved more by Ben and Angela?
Frank, if it comes to which show they like more, it’d be Chuck without a doubt. NBC is very outspoken in it’s love of the show.
given whatever cost structure/revenue advantages/arrangements Medium/NBC/Lifetime Network have as a result of airing Medium on Lifetime, I hope it’s really not an either or decision.
You obviously didn’t watch the finale of Chuck Largemarge.
Actually Nick, what’s your source, if you don’t mind me asking?
Robert, Since CBS Paramount produces Medium, I don’t think NBC is in on the deal with Lifetime, so that probably won’t affect the decision unless CBS is willing to dramatically cut the fees for it.
Holly, I could definitely be wrong but I’m guessing that does give Medium an advantage in any price negotiations. Which show NBC likes the most probably favors the show that costs the least per demo ratings points.
The Lifetime syndication deal for Medium could be counter-balanced by the product placement deals on Chuck.
Nick C., are we going to hear sooner than Monday? Do you have a good idea of when?
Holly, Medium will be at 95 episodes at the end of this season, CBS might be more willing to deal to get to ~ 110 episodes and be deemed more worthy of Mon-Fri syndicated stripping.
And even if all those things still even out, Medium has the .1 ratings point advantage.
CBS Paramount wants another 13 episodes of “Medium?” Then they better pull out their checkbooks and be prepared to eat the cost like Sony did with “Til Death.” Because this show is circling the drain, and its budget is the anchor.
Well, that and skewing geriatric.
Based on Robert’s comments, I’m afraid Chuck is toast.
No offense, but there is no way Medium should beat out Chuck (if it is between the two) Just look at the publicity Chuck as garnered all over the internet. I don’t see the same thing from Medium fans at all. NBC would be dumb to choose Medium over Chuck. Then again they are giving Leno 5 hours of prime time a week. I need to hire the guy that successfully pitch that. everyone but NBC knows it isn’t going to work
It’s ratings and money. The Medium deal discussed elsewhere sounds pretty lucrative. The studio may be even more willing to deal. A cheaper show with better ratings, notwithstanding internet buzz among fans, seems like a better option. That really sucks as I really like Chuck, but it is a business. With that said, I hope Nick C. is wrong, and this is some last minute negotiating by NBC to drive down the price!
Chris, I’m not offended, but don’t be offended by this: none of that publicity had any impact on the ratings (that might not be technically true — it’s possible that the publicity held Chuck steady rather than seeing it drop, but the numbers for the finale weren’t bigger than the week before). And even with DVR it’s close and in the most recent week Medium held a slight Live+7 adults 18-49 advantage. To Riff’s point though, Chuck does have the noticeably better 18-34 numbers.
Well that sucks. With Heroes as bad as it is and Chuck maybe not coming back, looks like there is nothing on NBC for me anymore. Funny cause the only reason Heores gets air time on my TV is because it is on after Chuck. Not that NBC really cares about 1 viewer LOL
Robert,
I understand that it all comes down to money. Just sucks to see a good show get canceled for another one that won’t last past next season. I really don’t think that any other show NBC has is going to come close to the ratings that Chuck has on Monday’s at 8. I know they aren’t great but they aren’t the worst either. You move Heroes there and it will tank really bad. Guess this time I will stick by my guns and not watch a show until it is in its 3rd season to make sure it is sticking around
Well now! Just watched the finale of Chuck. Nevermund. ;D Go Chuck!
Haha, brilliant, wasn’t it Marge?
The thing here is we’re talking about a tight schedule for next season. Maybe NBC renews MEDIUM for 7 episodes and CHUCK for 13. It’s possible.
The thing is I’d expect to hear something before Monday, but I’ve heard some conflicting things and nothing from a producer or NBC exec since the news that things were looking good for CHUCK.
Figured I might as well post this article here too, in case people need the link for discussion. Question for anyone who knows, is Variety getting their info directly from people in NBC who know for certain?
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118003070.html?categoryid=14&cs=1
“As for NBC’s on-the-fence renewals, signs are pointing to a third-season pickup for “Chuck”…”
FrankJ, between now and NBC’s official announcements, I doubt everything I read and hear about anything having to do with their schedule. Way too many agendas at play.
Thanks, Bill. By the way, were you still going to do that 18-34 demo comparison for bubble shows? Or was the going to be a postmortem?
FrankJ, not sure. If there was much drama in the CW announcements I might be inclined to do it ahead of time, but since there isn’t, probably not.
Life: I am not attached to this show. I am not attached to this show.
PARKS AND RECREATION 26
SOUTHLAND 001
LAW AND ORDER 28
CHUCK 29
MEDIUM 28
MY NAME IS EARL 02
KATH & KIM 22
KINGS 100
LIFE 100
KNIGHT RIDER 100
(Read Upside Down)
I hope KITT rides again.
They need a chance… :C
I think in some way, all green shows will be back. Chuck will return in some way on NBC, they will also find a way to renew Medium, even just for 15, and I believe Earl will return too. We will know in 3 days but i’m very confident in my decision.
As per NBC’s report, drama wise its down to Medium and Chuck. I think NBC is going to try their hardest 2 keep both but i’m sure both will come back midseason. It would seem more likely that they would axe Medium but its so close to 100 that a syndication deal would be good.
I’m just curious…are the dropping demos and ratings for last night’s Southland taken into account in the current posting of the Renew/Cancel index? Because if I read the ratings thread correctly, Southland’s first night against marginal competition yesterday landed them with lower demo’s than Chuck and a couple others.
Also…there’s a lot of talk about the magic synidication point of 100 episodes and I wonder if anyone at NBC is looking at the long-term viability of the network because they’re never going to get any of their shows to 100 episodes with Jay Leno taking up a 1/3 of the prime-time real estate next year. I understand it’s cheaper to produce the Jay Leno show in the short-term, but how can the syndication factor have so much value in terms of the renewal of shows if NBC is willing to flush that concept by making it nearly impossible for their shows to reach that milestone in the future?? Am I missing something or are they?
In light of some recent developments, my forecast for renewal for “Parks and Wreck” just jumped to 100% (where is the barf emoticon…).
Meanwhile, “Southland” slips to 60%.
Well, Southland was just renewed for 13 episodes.
NBC is a JOKE! At least CBS is letting Harper’s Island run its course. But unlike Harper’s Island, Kings has quality and could survive if it was on the right night. NBC screwed Kings from the beginning. It is one thing to hype a show and put it in a good time slot, but to hype a show and say, “F*** it, good luck,” shows how out of touch NBC is. It is unbelievable that USA Network and Bravo are affiliated with the same network. Harper’s Island is a mini-series, and it will bomb because it shouldn’t be on once a week. It should be on several times a week over a month long period.
Kings is awesome, and it has so much potential. And I liked Southland at first. But it stinks now. Live by the sword (Southland), you will die by it too! BTW, Parks and Rec. SUCKS!
Btw, for all of you who think that Law and Order could possibly leave NBC and move to USA, it can’t. TNT has a licensing agreement for all of the reruns of the original Law and Order and it would break the contract to put them on USA.
The upfronts are tomorrow and its safe to say that all of the green shows will return, and all of the orange shows will not.
Its interesting, Medium gets better ratings than Chuck, but for some reason all you posters seem to think that just because you like and watch Chuck that its a better show and should be renewed. You also make comments that that Medium is a boring show and because nobody posts about it people must not watch it, but thats just silly since it consistently gets good ratings. Everyone is always talking about how the networks only care about ratings, so looking just at the ratings, dont you think they would renew the show with better ratings?
Judas H. Priest, if they bring back Knight Rider while cancelling Chuck, I’ll give up watching NBC.
Knight Rider has made a mockery of Mustang owners. The car, when it transforms, looks like something that Hot Wheels and Fast & The Furious got together on and did a poor job of.
I think Chuck is a great show, and I want it back for sure, but NBC really needs to rethink what they’re keeping and what they’re getting rid of. The Knight Rider pilot was abysmal, and they brought it back. Chuck has a cult following, and should be brought back, but it’s not been decided? Come on.
Here’s a big VOC for ya.
NBC gobble…gobble…gobble. Forget the peacock, NBC is now the TURKEY Network!
Well my guesses were basically all correct. NBC has cancelled Life, Knight Rider, and Kath & Kim, while renewing Parks & Recreation & Southland. Medium, Chuck, Law & Order and Earl have yet to be renewed but they will be soon……………..
Amen to Jessica’s post.
I must have the opposite taste of the masses. I really like Kings, very inventive, it has a real shakespeare feel to me. I guess I should just learn to love crime shows, reality t.v. or something. Looks like more of the same is all people are willing to accept.
Kings, good luck, I enjoyed your attempt at doing something non-reality based.
I am counting My Name is Earl definitely out now as Twentieth Television has cleared My Name is Earl in nearly 50% of the U.S., said Bob Cook, the company’s president and chief operating officer. Twentieth has sold the off-net sitcom to the Fox, Tribune, CBS, Hearst-Argyle and Sinclair station groups for a fall 2009 debut.
Given this, I severely doubt it will make NBC for another season.