Categorized | TV Advertising

Nielsen Ratings SNAFU, What Happened?

Posted on 07 May 2009 by Bill Gorman

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Summary for the rational: Nielsen has a very complicated system. Mistakes were made. Sorry. We’re doing our best to correct them and make sure they don’t happen again.

Summary for the crazy: Nielsen’s process was built to undercount the ratings of your favorite shows while overcounting those of the shows you hate. Problem is, managing a conspiracy of that complexity is not an easy thing. This week our nefarious scheming was almost exposed. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

The news:

The national TV industry has come to a near halt this week due to a major SNAFU in one of Nielsen’s core audience measurement systems. While data processing glitches are not unusual, the scope of this one, which caused serious delays affecting most of its national TV ratings this week, and especially its source – the system it uses to collect data for its TV ratings meters – is causing some havoc and raising new concerns about the security of Nielsen’s national TV audience measurement system.

The cause:

“…, a firmware bug from the server manufacturer went undetected and caused a data collection stoppage over the weekend,” Habib disclosed, adding, “In the course of fixing this issue, we uncovered a second defect on Monday which resulted in further performance degradation and delays.”

The results:

Those delays have led to a near black out of national TV ratings reporting so far this week, and Habib said they have been further delayed on purpose, because Nielsen opted to have its scientists take additional time to analyze and “validate the integrity of the data” before releasing it for the week.

He said Nielsen anticipated being “fully back on schedule and caught up” on all its national TV ratings reporting by the end of the week.

More where that came from at MediaPost

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  • Patrick Murphy

    Does Habib have a big mustache, a hot air balloon and likes giving out little trinkets he has in his pockets? :-D

  • Patrick Murphy

    Does Habib have a big mustache, a hot air balloon and likes giving out little trinkets he has in his pockets? :-D

  • Patrick Murphy

    Does Habib have a big mustache, a hot air balloon and likes giving out little trinkets he has in his pockets? :-D

  • Royal H

    “…raising new concerns about the security of Nielsen’s national TV audience measurement system.”

    Security of the system? Lemme guess. Someone hacked the system and the data says Chuck pulled a 15.2 in the 18-49 demo Monday night. Despite not actually being on.

  • Royal H

    “…raising new concerns about the security of Nielsen’s national TV audience measurement system.”

    Security of the system? Lemme guess. Someone hacked the system and the data says Chuck pulled a 15.2 in the 18-49 demo Monday night. Despite not actually being on.

  • Royal H

    “…raising new concerns about the security of Nielsen’s national TV audience measurement system.”

    Security of the system? Lemme guess. Someone hacked the system and the data says Chuck pulled a 15.2 in the 18-49 demo Monday night. Despite not actually being on.

  • clutz

    If I were a STB data collector, I’d be marketing my data like mad right about now! “But no demographics? I can fix that within a week, and *some* data is better than *no* data.”

    Even for the rational, this major SNAFU highlights why a single-source supplier of any product or service is never a good idea. I work in a manufacturing environment, several plants in several states. We identify backup facilities to support our major customers. If one of our facilities sees an unexpected halt in production (tornado, hurricane, major equipment SNAFU, etc…), then a backup facility will resume essential production ASAP. Nielsen really should, at the very least, have duplicate systems running so that when one crashes, they have a backup plan. “But it would cost too much to do that!!!” Not really – split your current sample in half and run each half through a separate server, maybe?

    For the conspiracy nuts: Nielsen would never run split systems because the systems’ results would not be within an allowable range of error, even if the sampled populations consist of identical demographics. One system might say Chuck had 11 million viewers, and the other might calculate that Chuck had only 2 million viewers ;) .

  • clutz

    If I were a STB data collector, I’d be marketing my data like mad right about now! “But no demographics? I can fix that within a week, and *some* data is better than *no* data.”

    Even for the rational, this major SNAFU highlights why a single-source supplier of any product or service is never a good idea. I work in a manufacturing environment, several plants in several states. We identify backup facilities to support our major customers. If one of our facilities sees an unexpected halt in production (tornado, hurricane, major equipment SNAFU, etc…), then a backup facility will resume essential production ASAP. Nielsen really should, at the very least, have duplicate systems running so that when one crashes, they have a backup plan. “But it would cost too much to do that!!!” Not really – split your current sample in half and run each half through a separate server, maybe?

    For the conspiracy nuts: Nielsen would never run split systems because the systems’ results would not be within an allowable range of error, even if the sampled populations consist of identical demographics. One system might say Chuck had 11 million viewers, and the other might calculate that Chuck had only 2 million viewers ;) .

  • clutz

    If I were a STB data collector, I’d be marketing my data like mad right about now! “But no demographics? I can fix that within a week, and *some* data is better than *no* data.”

    Even for the rational, this major SNAFU highlights why a single-source supplier of any product or service is never a good idea. I work in a manufacturing environment, several plants in several states. We identify backup facilities to support our major customers. If one of our facilities sees an unexpected halt in production (tornado, hurricane, major equipment SNAFU, etc…), then a backup facility will resume essential production ASAP. Nielsen really should, at the very least, have duplicate systems running so that when one crashes, they have a backup plan. “But it would cost too much to do that!!!” Not really – split your current sample in half and run each half through a separate server, maybe?

    For the conspiracy nuts: Nielsen would never run split systems because the systems’ results would not be within an allowable range of error, even if the sampled populations consist of identical demographics. One system might say Chuck had 11 million viewers, and the other might calculate that Chuck had only 2 million viewers ;) .

  • ZebZ

    I knew there was no way Dancing With The Stars really got any more than 4 million viewers!

  • ZebZ

    I knew there was no way Dancing With The Stars really got any more than 4 million viewers!

  • Bad Robot !

    Theres no way 2 different samples would yield 2 million for Chuck for 1 sample and 11 million on the other. That just wouldnt happen. It might be a few hundred thousand different but thats about it. During sweeps the collect larger amounts of data and there isnt much of a difference than with the smaller sample sizes than the large ones. Some have even proposed eliminating collection of sweeps data because they dont differ all that much from the regular nationals rating.

    If the numbers were that wildly inaccurate advertisers wouldnt pay for them.

    How often do things like this happen? Not often. Advertisers would refuse to pay for a duplicate system. Every time someone (including Nielsen with Project Apollo) tries a better more expensive system, advertisers always balk at paying for it, so they fail. If there really was a demand for a better system, advertisers would pay for it or create a new system themselves.

  • Bad Robot !

    Theres no way 2 different samples would yield 2 million for Chuck for 1 sample and 11 million on the other. That just wouldnt happen. It might be a few hundred thousand different but thats about it. During sweeps the collect larger amounts of data and there isnt much of a difference than with the smaller sample sizes than the large ones. Some have even proposed eliminating collection of sweeps data because they dont differ all that much from the regular nationals rating.

    If the numbers were that wildly inaccurate advertisers wouldnt pay for them.

    How often do things like this happen? Not often. Advertisers would refuse to pay for a duplicate system. Every time someone (including Nielsen with Project Apollo) tries a better more expensive system, advertisers always balk at paying for it, so they fail. If there really was a demand for a better system, advertisers would pay for it or create a new system themselves.

  • the128boy

    “Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.”

    lol awesome

  • http://ivideoapp.com/ Mike

    I looked into how Nielsen families are selected and it seems a lot better than I was expecting. They have census data that shows the basic breakdown of various demographics (marital status, children, race, etc.), then they randomly select households and distribute the boxes in an attempt to match the demographics as close as possible. I assumed the word “family” in “Nielsen family” meant that you had to be married and have kids to be selected for the process.

    The only thing I can’t ascertain is how they handle people like me who almost never watch TV. I want to feel like we’re ignored in favor of more invested TV watchers (so I have an excuse when I grow attached to a show and it fails), but I don’t have any proof.

  • the128boy

    “Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.”

    lol awesome

  • http://ivideoapp.com Mike

    I looked into how Nielsen families are selected and it seems a lot better than I was expecting. They have census data that shows the basic breakdown of various demographics (marital status, children, race, etc.), then they randomly select households and distribute the boxes in an attempt to match the demographics as close as possible. I assumed the word “family” in “Nielsen family” meant that you had to be married and have kids to be selected for the process.

    The only thing I can’t ascertain is how they handle people like me who almost never watch TV. I want to feel like we’re ignored in favor of more invested TV watchers (so I have an excuse when I grow attached to a show and it fails), but I don’t have any proof.

  • Wess

    Nielsen = dead. Bye bye!

  • ded
  • Andrew

    The summary for the crazy was awesome. Great work.

  • Wess

    Nielsen = dead. Bye bye!

  • ded
  • Andrew

    The summary for the crazy was awesome. Great work.

  • Anonymous

    Robert and Bill, Do you think these issues will affect how the nets view the data from this week? (i.e., Will they give less weight to this week’s numbers?)

  • Holly

    Robert and Bill, Do you think these issues will affect how the nets view the data from this week? (i.e., Will they give less weight to this week’s numbers?)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com/ Robert Seidman

    Holly, I don’t really have enough information to have a strong opinion, but based on available info, it seems like any data collection issues were limited to the weekend and the issues with Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday are all processing related. If the missing data from the weekend was ultimately collected, I doubt the weekend results would be discounted much, if any. Given that it’s May sweeps, if the networks have problems with any of the data, I’m pretty sure we’ll wind up hearing about it.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Holly, I don’t really have enough information to have a strong opinion, but based on available info, it seems like any data collection issues were limited to the weekend and the issues with Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday are all processing related. If the missing data from the weekend was ultimately collected, I doubt the weekend results would be discounted much, if any. Given that it’s May sweeps, if the networks have problems with any of the data, I’m pretty sure we’ll wind up hearing about it.

  • David

    “While data processing glitches are not unusual …”

    Oh good. Now we all have tons of confidence in Nielsen. I’m glad they’re not a car manufacturer:

    “While failure of important safety equipment on our automobiles is not unusual, the scope of this failure …”

  • David

    “While data processing glitches are not unusual …”

    Oh good. Now we all have tons of confidence in Nielsen. I’m glad they’re not a car manufacturer:

    “While failure of important safety equipment on our automobiles is not unusual, the scope of this failure …”

  • JustTunedIn

    I like this statement. “In the course of fixing this issue, we uncovered a second defect on Monday which resulted in further performance degradation and delays”

    How long has this SECOND “defect” been around? I think it was an interesting choice of words to clearly lable the first data collection problem as a “bug” and the second thing they noticed when fixing this bug as a “defect”. LIke fixing a broken taillight on the car and finding out that the wiring had been done in the first place.

  • JustTunedIn

    I like this statement. “In the course of fixing this issue, we uncovered a second defect on Monday which resulted in further performance degradation and delays”

    How long has this SECOND “defect” been around? I think it was an interesting choice of words to clearly lable the first data collection problem as a “bug” and the second thing they noticed when fixing this bug as a “defect”. LIke fixing a broken taillight on the car and finding out that the wiring had been done in the first place.

  • clutz

    @Bad Robot, you stated: “If the numbers were that wildly inaccurate advertisers wouldnt pay for them.”

    Problem is, no one has EVER proven statistically how accurate Nielsen’s numbers are, to any degree. If they have, I challenge you, Bad Robot, to find and publish the proof. Advertisers have agreed to feed the Nielsen Monster for far too long. Nielsen is ASSUMED to be accurate, but they don’t have to bother to prove it because advertisers take them at their word. At first, this was a choice. Now, advertisers and broadcast execs really have no choice but to take Nielsen at their word. Slowly but surely, the STB data collection providers are being purchased as a supplement to Nielsen. Nielsen knows that such a “backup” can take the place of “leader” pretty darn quick! So it’s kind of amusing that Nielsen called a big “sharing” event with the STB data field. That was a post a while back on this very site. I can guarantee that Nielsen has made, and will continue to make, buyout bids on at least one, and probably more, of the STB data leaders. They bought Soundscan when it was proven to be more accurate than their Billboard charts. They won’t hesitate to attempt to buy out TiVo, Rentrak, or TNS either. I kind of hope the STB buyouts don’t succeed ;) .

  • clutz

    @Bad Robot, you stated: “If the numbers were that wildly inaccurate advertisers wouldnt pay for them.”

    Problem is, no one has EVER proven statistically how accurate Nielsen’s numbers are, to any degree. If they have, I challenge you, Bad Robot, to find and publish the proof. Advertisers have agreed to feed the Nielsen Monster for far too long. Nielsen is ASSUMED to be accurate, but they don’t have to bother to prove it because advertisers take them at their word. At first, this was a choice. Now, advertisers and broadcast execs really have no choice but to take Nielsen at their word. Slowly but surely, the STB data collection providers are being purchased as a supplement to Nielsen. Nielsen knows that such a “backup” can take the place of “leader” pretty darn quick! So it’s kind of amusing that Nielsen called a big “sharing” event with the STB data field. That was a post a while back on this very site. I can guarantee that Nielsen has made, and will continue to make, buyout bids on at least one, and probably more, of the STB data leaders. They bought Soundscan when it was proven to be more accurate than their Billboard charts. They won’t hesitate to attempt to buy out TiVo, Rentrak, or TNS either. I kind of hope the STB buyouts don’t succeed ;) .

  • http://www.computerproblemssolvedcheap.com/ Richard Steven Hack

    I agree with Royal H. Why raise the specter of “security concerns” if you’re dealing with a “server bug”?

    And what kind of “server bug” would suddenly manifest and shut down their processing for two days? They said it was “firmware”? WTF?

    Do they not run test servers before applying patches of any kind to production servers, a standard practice in any well-run IT organization?

    This is a VERY fishy statement. This is BS covering for some major screwup, quite possibly involving being hacked.

    And, yes, backup systems are common everywhere. You do NOT run servers without backups in any competent IT organization.

    I really don’t see how Neilsen can have major hardware issues, at least with regard to collecting and analyzing TV data (they do a lot more than that, of course – they collect retail data as well). They’re only sucking TV data from what, 20,000 sources? Even at 24×7, that’s miniscule amounts of data in today’s terms. Having duplicate backup systems would be easy at today’s hardware prices.

    Something went badly wrong when they couldn’t recover in less than three days!

    Heads should roll.

  • http://www.computerproblemssolvedcheap.com Richard Steven Hack

    I agree with Royal H. Why raise the specter of “security concerns” if you’re dealing with a “server bug”?

    And what kind of “server bug” would suddenly manifest and shut down their processing for two days? They said it was “firmware”? WTF?

    Do they not run test servers before applying patches of any kind to production servers, a standard practice in any well-run IT organization?

    This is a VERY fishy statement. This is BS covering for some major screwup, quite possibly involving being hacked.

    And, yes, backup systems are common everywhere. You do NOT run servers without backups in any competent IT organization.

    I really don’t see how Neilsen can have major hardware issues, at least with regard to collecting and analyzing TV data (they do a lot more than that, of course – they collect retail data as well). They’re only sucking TV data from what, 20,000 sources? Even at 24×7, that’s miniscule amounts of data in today’s terms. Having duplicate backup systems would be easy at today’s hardware prices.

    Something went badly wrong when they couldn’t recover in less than three days!

    Heads should roll.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com/ Bill Gorman

    RSH, “Heads should roll”. I’d be surprised if they aren’t.

    And while I cannot comment on the technical aspect of the reports, or what actually happened, I completely agree that Nielsen is by their nature very Soviet about their approach to things. Conservative, tight lipped, resistant to change, suspicious of inquiry, etc.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    RSH, “Heads should roll”. I’d be surprised if they aren’t.

    And while I cannot comment on the technical aspect of the reports, or what actually happened, I completely agree that Nielsen is by their nature very Soviet about their approach to things. Conservative, tight lipped, resistant to change, suspicious of inquiry, etc.

  • SW

    Mike,

    I.E. “The only thing I can’t ascertain is how they handle people like me who almost never watch TV.”

    I doubt they really know viewing habits until they contact someone. I ended up having to tell them I don’t watch much TV when they called me in the past asking me to become a Nielsen ‘family member’. I watch very few shows (currently 3, only 1 faithfully, however) but read about what is going on in TV land to satisfy curiosity and in search of new things to check out. I live in a rural area that does NOT get over-the-air with any reliability, and satellite and cable are out because of cost (I do have DSL, though, so I am not completely shut out of things). What I think finally did it was when I told them that (at the time) I was only watching 1 show, a BBC import (Doctor Who) and, when season packs came out on Amazon I got them for Christmas

    :-)

    Haven’t heard from them since lol :-)

  • SW

    Mike,

    I.E. “The only thing I can’t ascertain is how they handle people like me who almost never watch TV.”

    I doubt they really know viewing habits until they contact someone. I ended up having to tell them I don’t watch much TV when they called me in the past asking me to become a Nielsen ‘family member’. I watch very few shows (currently 3, only 1 faithfully, however) but read about what is going on in TV land to satisfy curiosity and in search of new things to check out. I live in a rural area that does NOT get over-the-air with any reliability, and satellite and cable are out because of cost (I do have DSL, though, so I am not completely shut out of things). What I think finally did it was when I told them that (at the time) I was only watching 1 show, a BBC import (Doctor Who) and, when season packs came out on Amazon I got them for Christmas

    :-)

    Haven’t heard from them since lol :-)

  • http://www.abc.com ABCFanatic

    It must have been the Swine Flu

  • http://www.abc.com/ ABCFanatic

    It must have been the Swine Flu

  • Julia

    Holly, I was just in a meeting where the GM basically said that, at least on a local level, last week should pretty much be disregarded. There were just too many inconsistencies, both positive and negative. She said that this week already looks like all the problems have been fixed, but not to go around tooting the station’s horn to anyone about anything from last week. Whether this means anything on a national level I’m not certain.

  • http://remotecontrolsyou.com Julia

    Holly, I was just in a meeting where the GM basically said that, at least on a local level, last week should pretty much be disregarded. There were just too many inconsistencies, both positive and negative. She said that this week already looks like all the problems have been fixed, but not to go around tooting the station’s horn to anyone about anything from last week. Whether this means anything on a national level I’m not certain.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Julia!

  • Holly

    Thanks Julia!

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